Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, May 17, 2004, 09:07
I finally climbed out of the basement today, thanks to strong pitching outings by Halladay and Ponson. My team has been performing much better lately, ranked #5 based solely on stats through the first half of May.
1
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Mon, May 17, 2004, 09:34
Abreu has finally found his bat! Based on Yahoo's rankings, he's the #1 player over both the last week and the last month. He's finally climbed to #9 for the season and THAT's what I was looking for from my #1 pick. He has almost single-handedly pulled my team out of last place.
On a bit of a downer, R.Lopez will be joining the starting rotation for the O's. I was really hoping that they would keep him out in the bullpen as I figured that was the best shot I had at him keeping a miniscule ERA and WHIP and helping me tremendously in those categories. Still, I can't help but to hope that he'll maintain a relatively high K/IP and help me out a bit there when he joins the rotation and maybe even pick up a W or two along the way.
Now if I can just get my patchwork offense to start producing, I might actually have a shot. I'm hoping Polanco follows Abreu's lead when he comes off the DL. Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?... ;)
2
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Mon, May 17, 2004, 10:47
Tied for 5th! I was getting glad I printed out the standings after Giambi's homer in Japan, but this is the closest I've been to the top ever since.
Looks like I found a good solution at MI - Willie Harris is stealing and profiling (or something like that).
Prior pitched in a minor league game last night! Just you guys wait!
3
J Leader
ID: 49346417 Mon, May 17, 2004, 11:36
I haven't checked yet, but if Guru says he's out of the basement (and he was pretty far down there) I have a bad feeling as to who has taken over his spot :(
I suck at roto! -Drafting Gagne backfired when i couldn't get a decent 2nd closer, then Riske lost his job and who knows if/when Nen will be back. -Aubrey Huff sucks -Nomo has been TERRIBLE -Russ Ortiz started out TERRIBLE -I have all 4 of my bench slots for DL guys and am forced to start guys like Edgardo Alfonzo, ???Danny Garcia??? and Carlos Pena (who I remember a certain someone talking me out of getting Lyle Overbay in round 25 for!!!!!)
end rant.
4
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Mon, May 17, 2004, 11:50
I feel your pain, J. My team has slumped for a bit too, but it will bounce back. *coughdelgadocough*
5
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Mon, May 17, 2004, 12:33
Hey, I tried to talk you out of Russ Ortiz...
6
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Mon, May 17, 2004, 14:37
i don't complain... no... I don't complain... I don't... (but when will I get a week, OK, a DAY, when my #1-4 picks all play healthy and get at least a single hit?).. OK... OK... may I just ask BALCO to improve their formulation to make Bonds a little healthier (and get a few hits)?
7
Guru
ID: 330592710 Thu, May 20, 2004, 10:44
Well, I had managed to ascend all the way to 14th place this week. Then, in one glorious day, I plopped back to the bottom. My results yesterday? OBP .148 SLG .070 ERA 6.86
Somehow, I managed to score 3 and knock in three.
Still, I feel like I'm making progress... at least until the next wave of injuries hits.
Contreras is scheduled to return to the bigs this weekend. I don't think I have the cahones to activate him right away, but if he could get on track, my outlook could improve significantly.
8
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Thu, May 20, 2004, 10:58
I don't often look at other teams, but looked at yours this morning since it had fallen back to 16. I took some solace in the fact that your hitter stats were worse than mine and mine were pretty bad. It's tough going, but your team is looking better than it had in the beginning. I just wish I had some of your patience....I pickup and drop players far too quickly.
9
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Thu, May 20, 2004, 11:49
My team has slumped badly in the standings, but it's much better than it appears. There are several teams that I can pass with one good day in several categories. I just haven't done anything special.
A prime example is last night as I got back 9.5 points, but could have been a lot more. I had 4 starters and 2 closers that actually pitched. Schoney pitched the worst statistically, but got a win. The others pitched incredibly well. Two starters, Suppan and Trachsel pitched against each other and threw shutouts while they were in giving up few hits. Yet it goes extras and no decision in the 1-0 final. Acevedo also has is showing his great stuff, throwing a shut out while he's in there only to have his relievers blow it for him. Smoltz was brilliant in a 2-inning non-save situation and Kolb did get me a much-needed save. Still, those missed wins cost me some points in the standings.
I'm right there with my hitters too. Nursing injuries and riding out a couple prolonged slumps. With all the active positions going, it's been a little difficult to try and trade much early on--even when two teams seem to have what the other one needs.
10
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Thu, May 20, 2004, 12:25
I'm happy. Really, I am. Overall, my team has been making steady progress. Here's the breakdown of how much I need to gain 2 points in each category...
R (11 to 13): +8 RBI (5 to 7): +18 SB (7.5 to 10): +3 OBP (3 to 5): +.006 SLG (2 to 4): +.018 W (12.5 to 15): +4 SV (16 to 14): -5 K (4 to 6): +3 ERA (4 to 6): -0.19 WHIP (4 to 6): -0.02
Given that I can't improve in Saves, that's 18 possible points that aren't that far out of reach, IMHO. Those 18 points could put me up to 9th spot, based on the current standings, just 3 points out of 8th. Now that's not exactly where I WANT to be, but it's sure better than 13th. But the key is that from what I can see, this league is still wide open. As we all saw with Guru last night, teams can rise and fall in the blink of an eye. You can lose, or gain, double digit points on any given night.
For fun, I compared first to last in each category. Here's the percentage difference, based on stats through last night...
Honestly, those numbers are much closer than I expected. Thinks like SV and SB are skewed because of their relative size, but are still interesting to look at.
11
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Thu, May 20, 2004, 12:51
I'm shocked that I have stayed where I'm at with Roberts, Nixon and now Marcus Giles out. I fear that I will fall badly in the counting stats where I'm already pi$$-poor in the upcoming weeks. I can only hope Nixon starts out with a bang. Giles getting hurt is a killer.....
I kind of had the planets align yesterday - 3 starts, 3 wins. 1 relief outing, 1 win. Amazing what 4 wins in one day will do for you.
My 'closers' are like yin and yang - Herges started out hot (at least in terms of saves) and Koch was questionable. Now Koch is pretty solid and Herges is in the crapper.
Trading is VERY difficult.
12
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Fri, May 21, 2004, 09:47
Well, I finally had to cut two of my original draftees. I was loathe to do so, but Lofton not getting regular PT makes him fairly useless since I need the counting stats the worst. Lohse has just been horrible. Not sure if my pickups will be any better, but figured I should do something. Of course, I bench Moyer last night with him not pitching so well and the O's with a fairly potent lineup....7 scorless innings with a win.
13
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Fri, May 21, 2004, 10:03
darkside, I caught the other end of that, starting Lopez because he had been lights out in long relief and SEA has been struggling on offense. The result? 4.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K.
UGH!!! Please, Baltimore, put his butt back in the bullpen!!!
14
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Fri, May 21, 2004, 10:33
Man, that's tough, KKB. Looks like a time or two through the lineup may be about all he's good for (he had a no hitter through 3, I think). Stupid managers messing with our fantasy players!
15
Peter N. Donor
ID: 257161713 Fri, May 21, 2004, 10:41
darkside, nice pickup of Morneau. I checked first thing this morning to see if he was still available when I read that he'd been called up. Turns out that I didn't wake up early enough!
16
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Fri, May 21, 2004, 10:55
Thanks...I needed to do something to try to revive my hitting numbers, they're just awful. Good work by you, too, moving all the way up to 3rd. You've put on a nice run of late.
17
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Fri, May 21, 2004, 11:53
How the hell do the Twins have so many hitters?
Morneau is generally a good pickup - got him in 20 teamer and 8 team AL only, but there are so many guys who can take time from him...
18
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Fri, May 21, 2004, 12:10
I wonder that myself....it seems they just have a glut of really solid hitting prospects. Hopefully he'll be like Ford and just play so well they'll have no option but to keep playing him.
19
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Fri, May 21, 2004, 14:20
But seriously... Hunter and Jones aren't going anywhere, so that leaves right, first, and DH (plus Cuddyer sometimes at third and Lecroy sometimes catching):
Lecroy, Cuddyer, Stewart (when healthy), Ford, Mike Ryan, Restovich, , Offerman, Kubel, Tiffee...
And this after Mohr, Pierzynski, Kielty, and Sears all cleared out.
20
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Sat, May 22, 2004, 17:32
Okay, so my plan is to pick up Zack Greinke with my #1 Waiver Priority. However, I really don't want him. The idea is that others DO want him. I'm looking for a good AVG/SLG hitter (any position) in a 1-for-1 trade. If you're interested, you can either email me offers at admin@kafenatid.net or simply post them here. I would like to process any trade as soon as I get Greinke (May 25), so that both teams benefit as much as possible, which is why I'm opening this up now.
I will NOT make this a bidding process. The first person that gives me what I feel is a reasonable offer will get him and that's it, barring an injury.
21
blue hen
ID: 353412123 Sun, May 23, 2004, 22:02
Greinke is probably the best pitching prospect in the minors (until this week, of course), although fans of the Mets or Phillies might argue. However, Greinke is VERY young in 2004, and even Prior in 2002 didn't make THAT much of an impact, fantasy-wise, so temper your expectations for Greinke.
I know we've been talking about how deep this league is, but seriously, it's not deep enough to lose an established hitter for someone like Greinke.
That said, Greinke is still a decent pickup and probably worth using the waiver priority.
22
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Tue, May 25, 2004, 10:36
from Rotoworld: The Red Sox continue to show interest in Raul Mondesi but may have trouble signing him given his contract demands. Boston is one of five teams (Anaheim, Seattle, St.Louis and Los Angeles are said to be the others) that are talking to Mondesi's representative. The outfielder, who was released a few weeks ago after a bizzare legal situation in the Dominican Republic, is looking for a two-year deal in the $2 million per season range. Mondesi will likely sign with some team before the end of the week, and could be a nice pick up for a fantasy team desperate for a little speed and power.
... so I had to grab him
23
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Tue, May 25, 2004, 11:03
Hmmmm, not even a single offer for Greinke. Seems everybody's content with their pitching staffs. Oh well, guess I'll just have to keep him and let him lower my own ERA and WHIP and likely pick up some W's.
24
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Tue, May 25, 2004, 11:41
You forgot a word:
I'll just have to keep him and let him lower my own ERA and WHIP rankings and likely pick up some W's.
25
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Tue, May 25, 2004, 11:44
Guru, have you been following the RQL leagues? Any thoughts about that? It looks like CanEHdian Pride is running away with RQL#2.
Also, if you finish in the bottom four, will you cut yourself? I only say that because I need every chance I get to hold my position in this league...
26
Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, May 25, 2004, 11:51
No, I must say I have not been following the RQL leagues.
And no, I'm immune from being cut, even if I finish dead last. Allows me to be mediocre (or even just bad) with impunity.
Run your own site and your own league and you, too, can enjoy super privileges!
27
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Tue, May 25, 2004, 11:59
blue hen, granted, he faced OAK in OAK (a game he should have gotten the W for), but he has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. For his hype, this is about right. If he sticks to a 5-day rotation, he'll face MIN, @DET, MON, NYM. I'll be starting him for most, if not all, of those games, especially considering most batters have never seen him.
Realistically, I think anybody with a 4+ ERA and/or 1.30+ WHIP (which is at least half the league in both categories) would benefit from him. Since I fall into those specs, I'm perfectly fine with keeping him. My only real concern is his K/IP ratio, but since I'm already horrible in that category, it's not like it really matters.
The only reason I was trying to get rid of him is because I need hitting more than pitching, IMHO.
28
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Tue, May 25, 2004, 12:01
I do, actually. In fact, I believe you have a couple teams there.
What if I finish 12th, but you finish below me? Technically, I'm above the bottom four. Is that the bottom four Non-Guru players?
29
Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, May 25, 2004, 12:12
No, all rules are based on actual standings. The only caveat is that I can't be cut.
The top 8 finishers get an automatic invite to return next year. (This assumes they were not "disruptive" managers, which I cannot believe will be the case for anyone.) Teams finishing 13-16 will drop out. Teams finishing 9-12 have no guarantees either way.
Most likely, for next year we will stratify the qualifying leagues. There will be a AAA, AA, and A league, for example. The AAA league would be for teams which drop out of the "majors", plus the top finishers in each RQL that don't advance to the majors. Maybe we won't want to stratify the AA and A leagues, however. Multiple AA leagues might be sufficient.
A similar program for Hoops is contemplated.
And bh, I haven't had any teams in your site's league for several years. They lost my business when site responsiveness got to be too slow and too unreliable, and not worth paying for. All of my leagues have since moved to Yahoo.
30
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Tue, May 25, 2004, 12:30
lol. bh trying to cry his way in for next year. Waaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh!
31
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Tue, May 25, 2004, 13:48
Ouch. And touche.
I was really trying my best to be disruptive. Guess it wasn't working so well. I was also hoping that one or two disruptive managers would forfeit next year's slots, thus saving me in that manner, but looks like that avenue's out too. Darn.
32
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Tue, May 25, 2004, 15:22
Yeah, like someone is gonna give up this league. I'll pay someone to let me stay if I end up on the cut list....it's tough to find this kind of competition.
33
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Wed, May 26, 2004, 15:19
I continue to be very very pleased with my resurgence in pitching. I'm at the top in wins, IMO, thanks to a little luck in relievers (Quantrill and Riedling in particular getting a few wins) but also due to my 3-part philosophy of, when possible, getting pitchers on contending teams with solid bullpens.
Lieber has exceeded expectations so far with 4 wins, 3.53 ERA (and much of that was one bad outing) and a nifty 0.90 WHIP - and doing it VERY efficiently with low pitch counts. Unfortunately he kills my K/IP, as I've fallen back into the pelaton there:
These numbers grant me comfort in that I believe there is still a few points to be had, in the long run, in K's to already support what is the 4th best (tied with slack) pitching staff in the league - with room to grow in WHIP specifically.
Marcus Giles being out hurts pretty badly - it forces me into 2nd tier MI people and I need Giles' ratios. Come back quick buddy. Dunn has crashed down to earth and Jeter is 6 feet under. Trot Nixon should be a shot in the arm (I hope!), but basically some guys (Phillips, Jeter, Fullmer) just need to get their heads out of their asses in order for me to regain some respectability in hitting......unless someone wants to trade for a decent starting pitcher :)
34
Peter N. Donor
ID: 257161713 Thu, May 27, 2004, 00:42
Thank you B.J. Ryan..............for the implosion. All it took to end his 9 appearance 11 inning scoreless streak was for me to pick him up. Oh well, with the inevitable "Sexson out for the year" news to come, I decided to pick up Conine who is starting to heat up a little. He will at least give me another option at 1B to go with Overbay.
35
beastiemiked Sustainer
ID: 3531815 Thu, May 27, 2004, 11:46
Hmm, I was on the screen trying to figure out who to drop when Species snatches up Jimenez. I'm not too worried as I doubt a guy with a 8.62 ERA will be worth a lick in 2 weeks.
36
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Thu, May 27, 2004, 12:04
lol......then why were you gonna pick him up? ;-)
Hey, 5 vultured saves will be just fine with me.
37
Peter N. Donor
ID: 257161713 Thu, May 27, 2004, 12:06
Yeah, I took a look at Jimenez this morning, but don't see him keeping the job long.
38
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Thu, May 27, 2004, 12:23
Yeah I just found out he was closing games about the same time. It seems guys want the sun, the moon and mother earth itself (and in some cases) along with your closer for a closer. I'm content to not offer any more trades in this league as even when you think you're offering a fair or even willing to overpay it's been time wasted. I'm playing Mike D's league just so I can make some trades. Not sure why trading has been so difficult in this league, but trading is a part of the appeal for me. Perhaps trading will be easier later in the year. I'm hopeful anyhow. Even if I'm winning in every cat. I like to change-up the makeup even if it's just a smidge that the waiver-wire can't do.
39
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Thu, May 27, 2004, 12:40
That's one thing I like about being at work at 7:30 in the morning, I can get guys like Jimenez. I was gonna grab him, but he's just bad...in fact, that's why they moved Betancourt out of the closer role...he was too good. I wasn't willing to risk my era and whip to get a few saves. But, I've been wrong a lot of times before and wouldn't be surprised if he all of a sudden he got his act together. Hard to believe he pitched a no hitter a few years ago.
40
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Thu, May 27, 2004, 12:42
It's all about who you have to drop, too. It's a double-edged sword sometimes with waiver pickups. I've been snakebit with lack of patience and have let two VERY useful players go --- but on the flip side if you aren't aggressive then you have NO chance of success on the waiver wire/FA list.
I too have found the trade waters frustrating. I don't see anyone giving up a "stud" even if that stud is replaced with a solid player + they get a 2nd player in a position of need.
41
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Thu, May 27, 2004, 12:58
I agree with Species 100%. That's why trading usually works out so well for both teams because even if you have to give more than what a player may be worth head-up, if you're giving up a cat that you are doing well in for a cat where you're bunched up or need to catch up in, it is worth it.
As I said in the G20 thread, Jiminez is bad, but if you need saves, he's certainly worth it as even he will nab you a few. If I'd have known, I'd have let a good player go just to get a few saves--knowing full-well it was going to likely hurt me ERA and WHIP to do it.
42
beastiemiked Sustainer
ID: 3531815 Thu, May 27, 2004, 13:05
I love looking back at my 3rd-9th round picks in the draft.
3rd Billy Wagner - Injured, out at least a few more weeks. 4th Johan Santana - Plain awful this year. 5th Rafael Furcal - Been injured for about half the year. 6th Larry Walker - Injured, will puss out until at least July 7th Matt Morris - Solid so far. 8th Ray Durham - Making his 2nd stint on the DL. 9th Ryan Klesko - See Santana.
43
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Thu, May 27, 2004, 13:06
Species look at my team. I'm aggressive in the waiver-wire as well as trades. I tend to not be conservative unless there are some underlying issues with a particular player that I need more info on. The way I see it, if it helps us both, it's a win-win situation and a good trade. If I'm 50 homers ahead of the 2nd place guy and you want my home-run stud and you're up in wins by a dozen and I want your leading wins pitcher, it would probably go down. I have no problems dealing my stud players if it will help me overall.
44
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Thu, May 27, 2004, 13:17
The thing is, none of us are out of any categories yet. That's why I haven't accepted any trades...sure maybe I'm really bad in hitting, but I'm not gonna give up a good pitcher for a servicable hitter just because that servicable hitter is a bit better than the hitter he'll replace. Once the season goes on and it's obvious I'm going to need [category here] then I'll be more accepting of trades. I'm just not willing to say sure, I'll take a net loss on overall player value because I don't think I'm (or any of us, for that matter) that desperate yet. Trading will start to happen once things clear up a bit, IMO.
45
Guru
ID: 330592710 Thu, May 27, 2004, 13:53
My top draft picks:
1 - Halladay. Not studly. But last year's track record gives me hope. 2 - Thome. Some injury problems, but generally getting what I paid for. And he'll have some hot streaks. 3 - Eric Chavez. A solid start, although not quite up to historical power norms. 4 - Preston Wilson. Injured. Hoping he returns for the second half. 5 - Guardado. Only has 8 saves, but then, Seattle only has 17 wins. I failed to anticipate how badly Seattle would be. 6 - K. Matsui. Happy with this pick sp far, especially since I almost took Jose Reyes instead. 7 - Carlos Lee. At least he's been healthy, and he is showing signs of heating up. But the .413 slugging pct is not what I was targeting. 8 - Mantei. Ugh. Too bad Valverde hasn't been a stronger backup. But at least I wasn't left high and dry. 9 - Contreras. Another ugh. Still hoping he can regroup. 10 - Floyd. Injured about half the year so far. Producing OK when healthy, though. 11 - Jason Bay. Missed a lot of time, but producing well now. .440/.571 12 - Marte. 2 saves, but not as consistent as I wanted. Not pushing Koch for the regular job.
At this juncture, my best picks look like Gerut(16), Wakefield(17), Pavano(21), and maybe Hudson(20).
46
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Thu, May 27, 2004, 14:15
1 - Schilling - can't complain 2 - Brian Giles - will be fine 3 - Marcus Giles - WAS fine, now hurt.....ugh 4 - Jeter - U-G-L-Y, you ain't got no alibi 5 - Maddux - what the hell was I thinking? No he's not horrible, but I blew it not taking a closer 6 - Teixeira - with 3b eligibility he'll be okay 7 - Dunn - slumping horribly now, but overall a steal 8 - Clement - one of my better picks so far 9 - Nixon - be lucky for an early June return
My best late rounders have been Spivey (15 - great 3rd MI), Koch (16 - rock solid after a shaky first 2-3 weeks), Herges (17 - expensive in ratio cats, but at this point a bargain), Grissom and Lieber. Oh, I drafted Beltre but dropped him the 1st week after he was dropped to 7th in the order :(
Womack cooled considerably but is still useful. Biggio has exceeded expectations off the waiver wire. Reidling is a solid replacement in my middle relief.
Hindsight's 20/20
47
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Thu, May 27, 2004, 14:16
btw -- funny how the pickup of Jose Jimenez starts the best chatter we've had in weeks! lol
48
beastiemiked Sustainer
ID: 3531815 Thu, May 27, 2004, 14:29
My best draft picks so far have been:
Drew(10), Burrell(12), Hawkins(14), Estrada(21).
I've only got 3 out of 10 of my final draft picks still on my team.
49
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Thu, May 27, 2004, 14:43
My big fear, that RJ and Schmidt wouldn't perform, has been alleviated. So, I'm happy that my first 2 picks are solid...may even be the best pitchers in the game right now (of course that could change).
#3 - Bagwell - what I expected #4 - Javy - after a hot start, he's cooled considerably. Not willing to say (yet) that I took him too high. #5 - Izzy - not what I'd hoped for, but I'm not unhappy #6 - G. Anderson - missing almost entire first half, definitely hurting my hitting #7 - J. Rollins - playing better of late, undecided how I feel. #8 - A. Ramirez - what I expected #9 - M. Bradley - definitely a disappointment, thought I was getting a steal, but he's underwhelming, IMO. #10 - J. Moyer - may be turning it around
Best picks - Mesa at #16 and Otsuka at #21 Worst - Wickman at #12
50
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Thu, May 27, 2004, 16:24
1. Prior - has been hurt but he'll be among the best for the rest of the year. 2. Giambi - say what you will but I'm happy. 3. Piazza - exactly as I expected; a steal 4. Edmonds - I jumped, but he went right around Jeter, OCabrera, Berroa and Vidro, so it's not like I would have filled the slot better. 5. Rivera - best closer in baseball started a serious closer run. Suckers. 6. Glaus - was my best pick until he got hurt. 7. Castillo - not quite the steals I wanted. I'll stick by the idea that I needed him badly at the time. Don't feel bad about not jumping on Andruw. 8. Clemens - No comment. 9. Burnitz - has been sensational. 10. J. Gonzalez - injuries but should be great from here on out.
Other notables: 11-12 Chacon and MacDougal have given me a few saves. 14-15 Olerud and Edgar simply haven't hit like I expected, and I blame them as much or more than Prior. 18. Oliver Perez - still the steal of the draft. 20-FA Meche and Lackey have been solid in the back end. I'm content. 21. Crain - It was worth it just to see some jaws drop. Pink Pimp copied me in an RQL league. 22. Weeks - OK, so that didn't work out so well.
All in all, I'm glad to be in the middle, sans my #3 rated player going into the season. Twarpy told me to take Beltran, and I'll eat my crow there. I wish I'd taken pick 7 or 8 instead of 5, but I can't complain about Giambi.
Best picks: Clemsn, Burnitz, Perez Worst picks: MacDougal, Olerud, Weeks
51
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Thu, May 27, 2004, 16:33
Juan Gone just got put on the DL, so he'll be great AFTER he returns.
52
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Thu, May 27, 2004, 17:51
Aww crap.
53
Trip
ID: 14417218 Thu, May 27, 2004, 20:37
My biggest mistake, wasting my waiver priority on E. Burks, and dropping Betancourt in the process. I do however have to pat myself on the back for drafting Betancourt in the first place. However, I did not want to keep myself from picking up players because of my waiver position but I would have been much wiser to wait for a Womack or Greinke to be added to the player pool.
Regardless of my current position I am still happy with my team at the moment. I have a competent bullpen and I do plan on racking up at least 1300 innings. I will not finish at my current position in K’s (and hopefully not WHIP either). Pitchers will be added as soon as Mauer and Garciaparra come off the DL. I am disappointed that I had one of my best hitting days yesterday and lost ground in the standing.
Regarding trades, I had a decent offer for Edwin Jackson a couple of weeks ago and I am now kicking myself for not taking it. I agree with Darkside regarding the lack of trades. It is surprising how close all of us are in most categories, and I think the trades will come when managers see opportunities to improve themselves and other teams at the same time.
My outfield started out hot (Sheff, Wells, Hidalgo, Patterson, and Nevin) but has since cooled down significantly. Dontrelle and Harden were also golden for their first few starts. I have also started Woody, Dontrelle, and Rich in situations that I wouldn’t have normally started them only to keep up in the counting stats. I am sure I am not the only one to fall into this trap. Once I pull a couple players off the DL I hope to be more selective with my starting pitching.
While I am happy with my 1-15 picks, but it would have been nice to strike gold with at least one of my late round picks. I have turned over most of those draftees at least once.
I apologize for not being more active in the forum, but I haven’t had a lot to say. I have been swamped at work, but I will try to get my priorities in order. Most of my fantasy teams have been suffering as of late. In my defense, most fantasy and sports sites have been restricted from viewing in the past year.
54
Ref
ID: 26356917 Fri, May 28, 2004, 01:09
Guess I do not share in darkside's philosophy whatsoever. If you wait too late, it may be jsut that, too late. But everyone is different and everyone values player's differently. That's what makes it fun.
55
Mattinglyinthehall Leader
ID: 1629107 Fri, May 28, 2004, 11:35
My top picks:
2. Berkman - Among all OF he ranks 2nd in OPS, 3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI and 32 runs is tied for 12th. Not bad for the 10th OF taken in the draft. 3. Beckett - Hasn't been stellar, but definitely very productive. 4th in MLB Ks and on a good team. 6. Borowski - Pure luck here. I was disappointed that I was blindsided by the closer run and left out of the scramble for the cream of the closer talent, and thus forced to take Borowski. 11. Danny Graves! - Who knew? Screw Blue Hen and all his peacocky self-backpatting over starting the closer run. Now if Brandon Webb could just step it up and make me look like I'm really smart for not taking a closer in round 5. 14. Craig Wilson - I will take credit for this one. I just knew that he was too good a hitter and too versitile (even if he's a poor defensive player at every position he plays) to sit on a team like the Pirates. 18. Horatio Ramirez - I considered him a nice sleeper when I took him, and his low-ERA performance has exceeded my expectations. Too bad he plays on such a poor hitting team and won't bring much in the way of wins. 19. Travis Hafner - Everything I could have reasonably hoped for. In my rationale I wrote, "The Indians think that Travis can develop into a high-OBP guy with power. I'd be thrilled with some partial development from him in 2004.". 24r 7hr, 33rbi, .891ops so far is great production for a 19th round pick.
56
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Fri, May 28, 2004, 12:28
Yeah, screw me.
57
Mattinglyinthehall Leader
ID: 1629107 Fri, May 28, 2004, 12:50
My worst picks:
4. Morgan Ensberg - He's a slow starter and I believe still a decent bet to turn it around (.378 OBP in the last month and .434 SLG in that time in spite of no hr). But the power outage has really hurt. I have to believe that a guy who hit 25hr in under 400 ab just last year will find his power stroke again. 7. Alex Cintron - I can't believe I used a 7th rounder on him. Luis Castillo, Mike Young and Placido Polanco were all taken later that round. 9. Randy Winn - I picked him up for steals. He got me all of two and dragged down my OBP and SLG down in the process. 10. Mike Hampton - I see that his last two starts (against poor-hitting teams) have been pretty good - to BMD's benefit. 12. Byung Kim - Who? 15. Aaron Miles - That one hasn't work out as of yet, but he's tearing it up again in AAA and a callup might not be far off. 17. Luis Matos - Reasonable bet at this stage, but clearly didn't work out.
58
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Fri, May 28, 2004, 12:54
I was a bit busy setting up the new Pick-the-Pitcher game, so here's a run-down on my draft picks:
1. Bonds: exactly as expected
2. Renteria: did I pick him 2nd? oh, he's got to improve, and it seems that he started running a little in the last week stole a couple of bases)
3. Kent: better than expected
4. Vidro: horrible... horrible... any chance that he'll be traded to the Yanks? naah, why would the Yanks want to replace the red-hot Enrique?
5. Percival: more save opps as a result of a weakened ANA offense (they don't over-score their opponents like in the first 2 weeks of the season), however, his numbers are pretty bad, but he's OK, I guess, as a 5th round pick
6. David Ortiz: thanks... pretty much as expected, no complaints, and may become even better as Nomar/Nixon join the Bosox line-up
7. Dmitri Young: 2nd in my team in OBP/SLG. Hope that he'll return to a HOT DET line-up after missing all but 11 innings of the season
8. Crawford: better than expected. He will be available for trade later in the season.
9. Pineiro: Horrible start, but seems better now (but I bench him @BOS, regardless)
10. Wilkerson: see Vidro above (at least he was picked 6 rounds later)
11. Jenkins: I get pretty much what I've paid for
12. Mike Redman: ditto
13. Washburn: Surprised me with quick 7 wins, but with the "down-to-earth" ANA offense, I hope to get 7 more by season end. he is OK, afterall.
14. Urbina: a gamble that paid
15. J. Jones: awesome!
16. Tike Redman: didn't need a 6th OF, so I traded him for BH Kim (hopefully, he'll return to the majors this season)
17. Tom Gordon: as expected, still waiting for Mariano's DL stint
18. Hasegawa: did I REALLY pick him? he DESTROYED my ERA/WHIP with a couple of horrible outings
19+22. Charles Johnson and Michael Barrett: pretty successful as my Catcher. CJ gets the roster spot while COL are in Coors and Barrett gets the rest
I moved the other low-round picks, and I re-called Utley (25th round flyer) from the FA later on. Figgins and Utley have been great for me, and I think that Youkilis, Moneyball's dear, my recent waiver pick will be servicable as well.
All in all, I am doing pretty good with SB... not much in the other categories... so I guess that I'll have to trade some speed for other good options. Feel free to contact me.
59
beastiemiked Sustainer
ID: 3531815 Fri, May 28, 2004, 12:59
Mith, if it makes you feel any better, I dropped Weaver who has since put up a few good starts. My pitching staff is so bad that right now my 2nd best starter is Doug Davis.
60
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Fri, May 28, 2004, 13:10
BMD, my pitching staff ain't much better, and I think that your Weaver is my 2nd best SP... ;-)
61
Tosh Sustainer
ID: 57721710 Fri, May 28, 2004, 13:37
I'm pretty dang happy with my later round picks.
16 - Brad Penny 17 - Steve Finley 18 - Ben Sheets 19 - Khalil Greene 22 - Brian Roberts (not as happy about him as I was three weeks ago)
62
Slackjawed Yokel Leader
ID: 52347519 Fri, May 28, 2004, 13:58
well, my draft was definitely a mixed bag; but, fortunately, my steals seem to be outweighing the flops.
steals my whole outfield: #13: Junior Griffey- looks like he's back. #23: Matt Lawton - though you can't put a whole lot of stock in it, I noticed that yahoo has him ranked 19th overall (12th batter) on ytd stats #8: Hideki Matsui - very quietly has put up some 'monster' numbers #15: Moises Alou - like the 3 other guys, right around 30 runs and ribbies
starting pitchers: #6: Carlos Zambrano - initially I was afraid I'd picked him too early, but he's definitely been worth a 6th round pick. #10: Andy Pettitte - though injuries were/are a concern, when he's gone out there, he's been unhittable undrafted f/a: Kenny Rogers - ok, not a draft pick - but he's tied for the major league lead in wins #16: Odalis Perez - though not getting many w's, he's posting nice ratios and more k's than expected
busts #2: Bret Boone - hopefully, he'll get it turned around, but at this point in the season certainly not worth a late 2nd round pick #3: Mussina - ditto, though he's started to show signs of life #7: Bill Mueller - ouch! but at least I've got solid backup play from Tino (#22) #17: A. Lopez (tor) - after a horrible start and a stint in the minors, I released him. I've since reacquired him with hopes that he can eek out an occasional save.
A-Rod factor: having had the first pick, much of my success hinges on A-Rod's ability to be dominant. And his recent power surge in addition to his higher than usual stolen base rate is starting to justify his selection.
lessons learned: don't be afraid to pick up weak positions early (ahem, closers), and it may be worth waiting on outfielders.
63
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Fri, May 28, 2004, 15:27
Peter N. Donor
ID: 257161713 Fri, May 28, 2004, 23:05
I decided to make a cautious move this morning and benched Carpenter for his start against HOU in the Juicebox. Seemed like a smart move at the time..............8 shutout innings and 2 hit ball later, I'm kicking myself for doing it! Oh well, I would've been even more ticked off with myself if I had started him and he got bombed.(at least, that's what I keep telling myself to try to feel better ;-)
65
Trip
ID: 14417218 Sat, May 29, 2004, 02:02
Peter...
Those starts kill you twice (at least). Once for the start you miss, and then again when you think they can handle any mlb team. I will not get killed by Woody again tomorrow.
66
smartone
ID: 313039 Sat, May 29, 2004, 08:52
now, with Mondesi, I have an extra OF bat, so I am entertaining offers for any ONE of the following: JJ, Jenkins, Mondesi or Figgins for a reliable SP (please, no SP who's WHIP is above 1.45, please... ;-)
67
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Sat, May 29, 2004, 12:15
smartone, that's pretty funny, considering a sent you an offer w/o seeing your post. Before I send trades, I try to see what the other team needs so it's not a waste of time. Pretty funny my offer was similar to what you posted. I know I wasn't going to make offers, but, I figure i just won't make offers to the people unwilling to trade of at least be reasonable. ;) Who knows, maybe I'm the one being unreasonable! Anyhow, there's always that counter button which I try to use if I can and I'll always make a comment regardless of the situation. Just because a trade doesn't work this time doesn't mean a comment can't spark an idea now or in the future or at least understand why that offer won't work.
68
Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118 Mon, May 31, 2004, 13:08
Man, I've really been cruising lately. Over the last 3 weeks I've ranked 4th overall in points - 3rd overall in the last two weeks. Losing Horatio and Beckett at the same time will almost certainly derail me.
69
blue hen
ID: 353412123 Mon, May 31, 2004, 23:52
I am SO glad I printed out the standings early on March 30th - right after Giambi's home run.
70
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Tue, Jun 01, 2004, 19:19
As my RIBC season flashes before my eyes........
RotoWire Update Recommendation ATL 5/31/2004 Giles' recovery from a broken clavicle is going slow and he's now expected to miss eight weeks or more and return mid-July. "It feels better, but I still can't even reach back to my pants pocket," Giles told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I have to keep my wallet on the other side and use my left hand."
It sounds like you shouldn't expect him back in your roster until August.
71
darkside Dude
ID: 3590317 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 08:48
I hear that, Species. 3 of what I expected to be my 4 starting OF'ers are now on the DL (Everett, Anderson and Gibbons) and the 4th (Bradley) should be getting a suspension. Luckily, Catalanotto should be coming off the DL soon so maybe I won't have to start Surhoff or Sierra or one of the other crappy replacements.
Times like this I wish I'd voted for the DL ;)
72
Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 09:06
I just added Eric Chavez to my list of casualties. Broken hand - hit by a pitch from Marte, no less. (Don't these guys know how to play together as a TEAM?)
73
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 09:17
I still have one extra OF (Jacque Jones, Mondesi or Jenkins) which I am willing to trade for a GOOD SP/closer
74
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 10:56
Guru - that's great. I wonder if Piazza and Clemens have lockers next to each other on my team.
75
beastiemiked Sustainer
ID: 3531815 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 12:09
Haha, it's funny because most of my guys really are on the same team. I've got 5 Cardinals and 5 Braves currently starting for me. If both teams were to get rained out I'd have at most 5 hitters playing.
76
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 15:16
It gets worse for Guru.....from Rotowire:
Eric Chavez (3B) OAK 6/2/2004 Chavez has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a broken bone in his right hand as a result of being hit by a pitch in Tuesday night’s game against the Chicago White Sox. He is now expected to be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks.
This is about double the initial estimate, so be prepared to be without Chavez for quite some time.
77
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 15:47
Ouch. Time to deal for Chavez on my H2H team.
78
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 17:27
Ever since I called Jeter UGLY in my post #46, he's been on fire.........so:
Jason Phillips - You are so ugly, when you joined an ugly contest, they said "Sorry, no professionals"
Junior Spivey - You are so ugly, when you walk down the street in September, people say "Damn! Is it Halloween already??"
Mark Teixeira - You are so ugly, you stuck your face out the window and got arrested for mooning
Brad Fullmer - You are so ugly, when you walk into a bank, they turn OFF the surveillence cameras
Tony Womack - You are so ugly, even Rice Krispies won't talk to you
Mike Cameron - You are so ugly, you turn Medusa to stone
Dave Roberts - You are so ugly, your mama had to be drunk to breastfeed you
Eric Milton - You are so ugly, when you tried for a part as an alien in Star Wars they didn't give you a costume
Now go kick some butt guys!
79
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 17:36
Done deal. I got Chavez, and all I had to offer up was Hee Seop Choi. Huzzah.
Species, that is simply hilarious. I don't care what other people say - I don't think you're a jackass. Other than Teixeira, however, I think you've run into a problem. THOSE ARE NOT GOOD BASEBALL PLAYERS. I mean, are you really expecting anything out of Tony Womack? At least Jeter is good. Calling him ugly probably did make him play to the upper limit of his ability. Do you really want the upper limit of Tony Womack's ability?
80
J Leader
ID: 49346417 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 18:18
Lets see my bad picks (this could take a while!)
Rd 1 - Gagne, well, the plan was to get 2 top notch closers. That didn't happen, and Gagne only has 12 saves so far.
Rd 3 - Barry Zito - 4.86ERA & 1.48WHIP...wtf???
Rd 4 - Aubrey Huff - nuff said.
Rd 6 - Hideo Nomo - 7.13ERA & 1.61WHIP & just 20Ks in 41.2IP...I'm glad he's on the DL, he cant hurt me anymore!!!!
Rd 8 - Russ Ortiz - talk about flaky, he's either been terrible or amazing this year
Rd 9 - Shannon Stewart - DL
Rd 10 - Cristian Guzmán - LMAO
Rd 11 - Roberto Alomar - ughhhhh
Rd 12 - Robb Nen
Rd 13 - Edgardo Alfonzo - why did I even bother drafting anyone these last 4 rounds?
Rd 15 - Darin Erstad - DL
Rd 16 - David Riske - he sure didnt last long as the closer
Rd 18 - A.J. Burnett - DL
Rd 19 - Mark DeRosa - how is it possible that he still starts for the Braves????
Rd 20 - Brendan Donnelly - DL
Rd 23 - Mark Remlinger - dumped him pretty quickly
Rd 24 - Ryan Freel - dumped him even quicker
Rd 25 - Carlos Pena - well, he had a good 6 for 6 day recently, but I dumped him well before then. What makes this pick even worse is that it was between Pena and Lyle Overbay with this pick :(
Now I'm glad I can see why I am trapped in last place. I have 6 guys on the DL!!!! I think its amazing that I was ahead of Guru for so long :)
81
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 19:08
LMAO J
I want to see that list with your draft rationales pasted in. YEOWCH!
82
Trip
ID: 14417218 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 19:46
With Mauer back, is there any interest in Olivo before I drop his butt? Pokey Reese anyone. Anyways, thought I would throw it out there. While there haven't been many trades, there have been several waiver claims of late. I had targeted Duscherer and Sele as pickups, but they both just disappeared. KKB/Darkside - any interest?
83
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 19:54
Trip and anyone else, I'm looking for someone with a good SLG. I'm willing to part with an equally good starter, so if someone's looking, they can certainly make an offer.
I will NOT trade away Hudson. Any other STARTER is fair game. I'm not interested in trading away either of my closers at this point, for obvious reasons. Preferrably, I would like someone with a SLG above .450. And a non-OF position would be great.
I know this sounds like a lot of demands, but I'm just trying to explain what an ideal trade would be from my end. If you read that and think, "Hey, I have just the guy to trade him and a SP of his in mind that would work perfect!" then offer it up. If not, maybe we can try again later as our team needs evolve.
84
Trip
ID: 14417218 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 20:15
KKB Olivo is slugging 0.515 . The only other options I have that meet that criteria are Wells, Lowell and B. Hall...pitiful. Of those 4 I am only willing to part w/Olivo or Hall. I'll throw both of 'em to you for Madson/Scrub of your choice, or Olivo s-up for Sele.
85
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 20:32
Trip, the biggest problem with Olivo and Hall is that neither are full-time players. I really don't have any scrub SP to give up as all my guys are in starting rotations and all, except Greinke for obvious reasons, are ranked in the top 200 for the last month.
Check your Yahoo because I've offered something you MAY be interested in. I'm not sure.
86
Trip
ID: 14417218 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 21:30
KKB I was interested in Estes whom you just picked up off the waiver wire. I was offering Olivo who is about to be picked up off the waiver wire. Sorry to call you out, but the difference between Lowell and Hiske is miles between the difference between Eaton and Radke. If you can't come up with something reasonable, please don't bother.
87
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 21:51
If you can't come up with something reasonable, please don't bother.
How is that not reasonable? Based on season stats, it's skewed, but not unreasonably, IMHO. Especially when you take a quick look at Lowell's career splits and see he's ready for a decline. April was his big month (as shown in his overall ranking). And, if you trust his splits at all, Hinske is due for a HUGE month in June.
Sorry, but I just don't see how that's an unreasonable trade offer.
88
Trip
ID: 14417218 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 22:37
Next best options...Jose Hernandez (315) and I'll pick up Tomo Ohka (48).
89
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 22:50
Go right ahead. Hernandez has 0 upside. He's 35 years old and is playing WAY over his head. There is about 0% chance that he can, or will, improve on his current stats. In fact, his current 1.002 OPS is over 100 points higher than his career best. He's far more likely to decline... if/when he gets a full-time job (Note: he's currently on the bench for LOS tonight).
Hinske, on the other hand, is severly underperforming. If he heats up in June, like he has in the past, he's going to blow right past Hernandez's rankings. He could easily skyrocket into the 200's. And if he does, his monthly ranking will be far better than 200 and likely better than 100.
As for Radke, he's ranked 125/124/88/185. You would be hard-pressed to find another player with rankings that consistent across the board. Radke is playing slightly over his head in ERA, but his WHIP is actually higher than expected. So, I figure those will even out as time goes on and Radke will still be a low 100's pitcher by the end of the year.
Ohka? Good luck. He's been pitching well. Just be sure to get rid of him before July... If you're looking for a short-term replacement, he's your guy. If you want a long-term solution, well, I'm not so sure.
90
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 22:52
Also, Ohka's not guaranteed for you. You have 14th waiver priority. My guess is that there's someone in those first 13 that has pitching needs bad enough to pick up Ohka. I could be wrong, but Ohka's more likely to be claimed than Olivo, IMHO.
91
Ref Donor
ID: 539581218 Wed, Jun 02, 2004, 23:48
KKB, people value players differently and we all tend to overvalue our own. Some people also assume because you're asking for a player of theirs that he automatically must be better. Once a few more trades go down, things will move a lot more easily. I know it's frustrating when you work so hard to make it a win-win situation for both and they don't share in your thinking. All you can do is move on and hope the guys you would have traded do better than the guys you would have gotten. It's already happened for me.
92
Trip
ID: 14417218 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 01:04
KKB asked for a player slg over .450 . I told him who I had who was slugging over that amount. He then proposed a trade for a player who I told was not on the block. This trade was lopsided in his favor. I then dropped the player who was on the block as it became obvious that we weren't going to work anything out. I had targeted 4 players who were on the FA wire whom I wanted to pick up before Mauer and Nomar came off of the DL. Two of those players got picked up today. I was hoping to trade one of the recently picked up players for one of my players who was about to be released (I mistakenly named Estes instead of Sele). I may be wrong, but I expect Olivo to be picked up off of waivers, and I was simply hoping to bypass the waiver wire and complete a trade instead. I also offered up a reasonable alternate trade. KKB was asking for the best player on my team (YTD). I don't see much of an effort on his part. I have sinced dropped Olivo as I didn't want to miss out on another WR option. I doubt that my 4th option will still be available when Nomar is healthy. Sorry if I am being disruptive but Blue Hen told me to.
93
blue hen
ID: 353412123 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 01:50
I take back one of my comments in post 50, where I discussed players I drafted. I just realized who is 3rd on my team in on-base percentage.
94
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 08:07
He then proposed a trade for a player who I told was not on the block.
Trip, the only players you had on the block were part-time players (Olivo and Hall). Of course you want to get rid of them. And I'm sure you would like a full-time player in return, correct? Isn't that what we would all like? Unfortunately, it's dreaming. If Olivo gets claimed off of waivers, he'll likely be exchanged for a) and injured player, b) another part-time player, or c) a severly unperforming player. Nobody's going to drop a good starter for him; at least not that I can see. Olivo for a SP who is pitching his head off right now? No thanks. Not quite a "scrub," eh? And I'm sure a part-time player DOES look good in exchange for Madson. He's pretty much saved my pitching staff and I'm sure he could help yours, too! In fact, I'm sure he could help every team in the league, so why does it make sense to trade him for a part-time player?
KKB was asking for the best player on my team (YTD). I don't see much of an effort on his part.
He's the best player on your team YTD because he's a hot starter. For his career, Lowell has a .971 OPS in April. His next highest OPS is .866 in June. That's over 100 points difference. And he drops down to .779 in July and .709 in August for a loss of 262 points since the start of the year. His HR totals by month read 28, 21, 27, 13, 14, 19. RBI totals read 108, 68, 89, 64, 71, 62. Run totals? Same thing. 79, 61, 71, 58, 51, 48.
In other words, there's no way I'm "paying" for a 7th YTD ranking (before last night) when it's obvious Lowell is due for a decline. I'm not going to rent-a-player for a month and give up the farm for it. I didn't offer anything with regards to Lowell's 7th YTD ranking because I thought people in this league went by more than just a YTD ranking or stats. I offered a fair trade based on what Lowell's expected value will be and what the expected value of the other 3 players will be, taking into consideration YTD stats/ranks, Last Month stats/ranks, career splits, and other info.
Just look at his last month and Lowell has dropped down to a 66th ranking, which declined from last night and is a pretty decent decline from his YTD ranking. And I suspect, based on his career splits, that he'll continue to decline to the point where the trade I offered is more than reasonable because that decline was factored into the trade.
If you don't want to believe in Lowell's decline, that's fine, but don't call my offer unreasonable. There's plenty of reason behind it even if you don't want to acknowledge or agree with it. I could continue on for quite a while and fully explain all the angles I looked at when considering that trade. As I mentioned in the offer, it's about as close as we could get to an even trade and, IMHO, it's pretty darn close.
Ref, you're absolutely right.
95
Mattinglyinthehall Leader
ID: 1629107 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 08:58
Radke is playing slightly over his head in ERA...
He's currently .74 better than his career mark. 3/4 of a run isn't exactly slightly over his head. He's only posted under 3.9 twice in his career, most recently in 1998, when he put up a career-best 3.75. Since that year, he has only posted better than 4.45 once, in 2002 when his mark ERA was 3.94.
...but his WHIP is actually higher than expected.
Not sure where you draw your expectations from, but his career WHIP is 1.27. His 2004 WHIP currently stands at 1.26.
96
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 09:21
Yeah, I guess he's not doing so much better in WHIP, but he's still right at his career mark. He IS slightly off from his 3-year mark of 1.207, so there's room for realistic improvement.
As for ERA, his 3-year average is a 4.32, which is much more indicative than his career mark of how he would perform this year. Yes, that's still 0.52 more than his current ERA, but not quite the same as 0.74.
I see no reason for him to greatly diverge from what RotoWire expects of him this year: 15-8, 3.80 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 119 K's. He's pretty much right on that pace right now. And even if Radke DOES falter, he might fall into a high 100's ranking. MAYBE. In all likelihood, he'll stay in the low to mid 100's. But, as with all things, it remains to be seen.
For now, I'll be happy to keep him. I'm willing to trade any player on my team for the right price. Maybe even Hudson. But I'm not selling the farm this early in the season. It's just not worth it considering my team is tied for 6th place using stats since 05/15.
97
Mattinglyinthehall Leader
ID: 1629107 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 09:29
As for ERA, his 3-year average is a 4.32, which is much more indicative than his career mark of how he would perform this year.
KKB, Radke's current 2004 ERA is 3.55.
His career mark is 4.29, a difference of .74
His last 3 years mark is 4.32, a difference of .77.
98
beastiemiked Sustainer
ID: 3531815 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 09:42
Can't we all just get along.
99
KrazyKoalaBears Leader
ID: 517553018 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 09:51
My bad. I'm not quite fully awake this morning. ;)
Still, the idea that Radke could be having a good year is realistic. He's very close to his RotoWire projections (which is where I got the ERA from on accident). Like I said, I'll keep him and be happy with his production. He's done fine for me so far and his career splits indicate that he's a consistent producer. So I figure if he's producing well to start the season, he should be producing well to end it. Though I may rest him a bit in August...
100
Mattinglyinthehall Leader
ID: 1629107 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 09:51
Oh I'm not down on KKB for not trading Radke for a player he doesn't like - including the player I offered him for Radke. I just have this annoying thing where I have to correct people when they make mistakes or talk up players undeservedly. In KKB's (and Radke's) defense, Radke is traditionally a much better second-half player, so if he just plays at his previous 2nd half levels, he could certainly have his career year in 2004, depending on what he does between now and the ASB.
101
smartone @work Donor
ID: 29452720 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 10:18
the thread became interesting... keep it up!
... still looking for a Win... :-(
102
Species Leader
ID: 7724916 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 11:09
Brad Radke is so ugly, when I saw him walking down the street, I thought he was walking backwards
103
blue hen
ID: 372102211 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 11:20
Ryan Freel is so ugly that Species doesn't even need to make a joke about him.
104
Trip Donor
ID: 13961611 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 11:21
If you receive a trade offer which contains 8 paragraphs explaining how this is a good deal for your team...well, it probably isn't.
105
Mattinglyinthehall Leader
ID: 1629107 Thu, Jun 03, 2004, 11:26
I disagree with that, Trip. I always prefer discourse with potential trading partners and frequently am frustrated by some people's refusal acknwledge the reasoning behind my proposals and/or explain the reasoning behind theirs. Even if you don't agree with someone's reasoning, at the very least it shows that your interests were considered in the offer.