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0 Subject: 5 Day Pitcher Repricing : Q&A + Analysis

Posted by: APerfect10
- [39143521] Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:00

5 Day Pitcher Repricing
Hopefully this clears up a lot of things for many people...
Factors Unaccounted For

a) Gradual increase in price over the season. This number varies from pitcher to pitcher, therefore the only logical way to analyze the 5 day repricing is to first find a base affect then factor gradual increases in price for each different pitcher later.

b) I am assuming that each day of the week, the same amount of trades are used. It has been proven that this is incorrect but I do not want to complicate things, plus the difference this makes should be minimal. (A $100k increase on Friday is equal to a $100k decrease on Saturday)

Since we are assuming A, this means that we can also assume that an equal amount of people buy into Randy before a start that sell out of Randy after a start. If you look at lasts years data, you will see that Randy's price over the first two months remained relatively the same.

As I have outlined before there are 4 Key Situations...

* All the numbers in the table below are based upon a percentage of 100% (of trades).

4 Day Rest -> 4 Day Rest   4 Day Rest -> 5 Day Rest
  Buys Sells 5 Day Avg     Buys Sells 5 Day Avg
Pitch 20 0 20   Pitch 20 0 20
Rest 0 80 -60   Rest 0 80 -60
Rest 0 20 -80   Rest 0 20 -80
Rest 10 0 -80   Rest 10 0 -80
Rest 30 0 -40   Rest 30 0 -40
Pitch 60 0 0   Pitch 60 0 0
Rest 0 80 0   Rest 0 80 0
Rest 0 20 0   Rest 0 20 0
Rest 10 0 0   Rest 10 0 0
Rest 30 0 0   Rest 30 0 0
Pitch 60 0 0   Pitch 60 0 0
Rest 0 80 0   Rest 0 80 0
Rest 0 20 0   Rest 0 20 0
Rest 10 0 0   Rest 0 0 -10
Rest 30 0 0   Rest 10 0 -30
Pitch 60 0 0   Rest 30 0 -60
                 
5 Day Rest -> 4 Day Rest   5 Day Rest -> 5 Day Rest
  Buys Sells 5 Day Avg     Buys Sells 5 Day Avg
Pitch 20 0 20   Rest 0 80 0
Rest 0 80 -60   Rest 0 20 -20
Rest 0 20 -80   Rest 10 0 -20
Rest 10 0 -80   Rest 30 0 -20
Rest 30 0 -40   Pitch 60 0 0
Pitch 60 0 0   Rest 0 80 0
Rest 0 80 0   Rest 0 20 0
Rest 0 20 0   Rest 5 0 -5
Rest 0 0 -10   Rest 10 0 -25
Rest 10 0 -30   Rest 25 0 -60
Rest 30 0 -60   Pitch 60 0 80
Pitch 60 0 80   Rest 0 80 20
Rest 0 80 20   Rest 0 20 -5
Rest 0 20 0   Rest 0 0 -15
Rest 10 0 0   Rest 0 0 -40
Rest 30 0 0   Rest 20 0 -80
Pitch 60 0 0   Pitch 80 0 80

Highlighted in blue is the start being analyzed.
Highlighted in light blue is the time frame being analyzed.
Ignore white regions.

Once again, this doesnt factor into account a pitchers gradual increase over the course of a season...
2CanEHdian Pride
      Donor
      ID: 426351415
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:09
just a quasi-related question.....anyone have a good site for probables? I foget who did the thread last year but it was very helpful. Anyone thinking of doing it this year?
3CanEHdian Pride
      Donor
      ID: 426351415
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:11
actually, the ones in the pulldown menu are cool. I wasn't sure how far into the future they'd go but they are more then adequate.
4NY Sports Teams
      ID: 385248
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:12
Looking at this there is no way I can do Randling because I would have to go to another pitcher after Schilling to avoid the losses. Also you do not get the full gain by RJ trading out so quick to Schilling. Good work, thanks.
5APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:16
NY Sports Teams, RJ & Schilling both pitch every fifth day, therefore they fall into the category of 4 Days Rest -> 4 Days Rest, therefore trading at a certain time shouldnt matter. Price increase/decreases will be minimal.

The problem I see with Randling is you are not going to gain much money...
6J
      ID: 49346417
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:18
EH - I was the one who made that thread. I usually wait until the 2nd half of the season to create it, because I didn't have to worry about cheapies. I dont want to gather probables for EVERY pitcher on EVERY team. Unless I get really bored :)
7Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:18
You are also assuming some people will buy a pitcher prior to his start. It may take some time before that catches on again. This will make a material difference as I think at least for his next start (and perhaps subsequent starts) people who want to buy him will wait until the day he pitches.

At first glance, it also looks as though your 5 Dya Average column contains some inaccuracies. For example, in the 4 Day Rest -> 4 Day Rest, the 3rd day of rest should be a net of -70. And the 2nd start should be +20. That is if I'm reading the thing correctly...
8smallwhirled
      Donor
      ID: 29232811
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:21
Agree with AP10....

So, with no money coming out of Randling, should just one be held? Should you go for the THM early? Should you forget about Randling altogether? Many questions that I'll have to take a look at in the next week once they enter Coors.
9KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:23
People need to stop thinking of pitcher rotations for money. It's just not there anymore. Rotate for points and new money makers and hold over-achievers for money. Wait, this sounds familiar. Kind of like what we do for hitters. Go figure.
10NY Sports Teams
      ID: 385248
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:24
It looks like the day before RJ pitches you lose money with both pitchers. Today RJ lost 90 and Schilling lost 10. Both should lose tomorrow I would guess.

11smallwhirled
      Donor
      ID: 29232811
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:25
That's understandable KKB, it's just something we're not all used to, that's all.

;-)
12Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:30
Definitely something fishy with the 5 Day Average numbers.
13APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:34
Ender, everything looks fine from here...
14APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:37
KKB noted something that I had earlier in a previous post.

Overachieving Pitchers will have their price increase drawn out an extra 4 days while underachieving pitchers will have their price decrease drawn out an extra 4 days...

While it is still possible to make money by pitcher rotation, a key IMHO is to pickup these underachieving pitchers and hold them until they decrease.
15Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:39
Then explain my discrepancies noted in post 7.
16APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:47
Ender, you are correct, I screwed up the formula in the cell's at the top, but that shouldnt affect the area's I am concerned with...
17KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:47
STOP THINKING ROTATION! You guys still don't get it. You're talking about holding a guy "an extra 4 days" to get the money gains. No, you don't hold him an extra 4 days. You hold him. Period. You don't trade him. You don't trade a hot hitter who is gaining money, so why trade a pitcher doing the same thing? Stop thinking rotation for money. Rotate for points? Yes, definitely. I have a feeling that anyone who is rotating pitchers for money this year is going to have a very long and frustrating year. It's just not there this year and "an extra 4 days" is going to put you at the pitchers next start, so why would you trade him then anyhow? You lose points just to avoid a minimal price loss from the people who still don't get it? Not me. No thanks.
18APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:48
After the 5th day, everything should be fine...I had to manually enter the numbers before then rather than using a forumla since there wasnt a full 5 days of activity.
19Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:49
And after 4 days your absolutely certain of this, KKB? ;)
20KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:51
Yep. ;)

Of course not, but common logic tells you this. I wouldn't doubt that TSN ran some numbers with last years trades and this years formula and saw pitcher rotation money flatline. Will there be exceptions to the rule? Of course. Enough to try and spend all this time trying to figure them out? Probably not. I think the Guru-Rotation is going to be key this year. Hold the over-achievers as long as the over-achieve (independent of price changes) and Guru-Rotate when you can. It becomes an efficiency of points since the money is obviously not going to be there.

We'll see...

21Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 18:55
And what specific areas are you concerned with (pardon my ignorance)?

I still day it makes a huge difference that you assume buys spread out over 3 days leading up to a start.
22Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:00
You've been asking questions and answering them with "probably", "probably not", or "definitely" in your own posts a lot lately... :)

23APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:00
Ender, I wish the interactive Excel spreadsheet worked when I posted it so you could mess around with the numbers. By spreading out the percentages, it barely changes the 5 day net gains/losses. Either trust me on this, or try it for yourself.
24Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:08
I'll play with it some. I haven't dug out pencil and paper to be perfectly honest. It just seems like spreading the numbers out drags those buys out over time and keeps them in the 5 day rotation longer than may be realistic. It also de emphasizes the buys on the pitching day in terms of proportionality.

I also wonder why anybody in their right mind would wait a day to sell a pitcher now? Do you expect anyone who picks up RJ on Saturday to hold him through Sunday's freeze?

I'm really playing devil's advocate more than anything else. I am unwilling to settle on a single theory at this point. I don't have a specific beef with you :)

In the end, I think KKB's right. The only way someone can hope to make money on a pitcher is to hold over time as people move into him. Rotating won't get you very far $$$-wise (which I know is your premise as well).
25KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:08
Ender, I've found that after this much time on the boards, you can almost guess the questions that people are going to ask to just stretch things as far as they can and most of those questions don't have any definitive answer. So I go ahead and ask them and answer them so that it doesn't turn into a back and forth over the probability of some ridiculously minute point. Not that you would do that, it's just become a bit of habit.

But should you trust me on this? Probably. ;)

26APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:14
Ender, I am willing to bet you that 20% of people will sell a pitcher the 2nd day after a start. Its been like that forever and will not change now...
27KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:43
AP10, it'll change if people keep seeing the pitcher that they just dropped gaining money the day after a start. The lemmings do watch the price changes.
28APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 19:54
KKB, that is true and that is more than 20% isnt it? ;)
29cancermoon
      ID: 53248219
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 20:49
yeah tough one, because if you trade your pitcher the day after, then who do you trade into, as we have seen Johnson is still losing big money 3 days after his start, so wouldn't want to trade into him until the day of his start, would people trade into an average starter and waste trades just to avoid a small money loss? Who knows, I think I'd rather take the small hit and wait till the right time to repurchase Randy or Curt.

The horrible thing is that people seem to be rotating the 5 million dollar pitchers, so if they have a bad outing they will lose money, when really I thought they would be a nice hold to just rack up points during the season. Sometimes I think it would be easier to play this competition if everybody knew what they were doing.
30Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 3711402623
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 20:57
"Sometimes I think it would be easier to play this competition if everybody knew what they were doing."
-Cancermoon

Brilliant statement. That could be the theme for the early take on the new pitcher price change structure. Cancermoon has vote for the first Guru jr. award this year.
31Mike D
      Donor
      ID: 37222147
      Thu, Apr 04, 2002, 21:04
Or the Art Jr. from the Hoops forum.
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