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0 Subject: Investigations into Pitcher Trades

Posted by: Richard - [6232711] Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:21
It's been fun reading lots of speculation about what's driving the pitcher prices changes. In the absence of any data some theories actually sound great and other theories just leave folks confused. In an effort to see what's happening, I've dusted off my sometimes controversial sampling routines. This year I'm sampling the frozen rosters (don't worry purests, I'm not sampling current rosters and predicting price changes). The results of my sampling can shed some light on some of the seemingly unreasonable price changes (Randy going up the day after he pitches and Schilling going down the day he pitches). First some of the data (I'll present three tables - first the raw pitcher counts, second the day-to-day change and finally, the one that shows whats happening, the 5-day total pitcher changes.

Daily Pitcher Ownership Levels

Pitcher 3/31 4/1 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7
Oswalt, Roy 86 87 90 99 91 87 83 80
Beckett, Josh 68 69 70 69 72 75 78 73
Wells, David 48 47 52 58 57 63 68 70
Hernandez, Carlos 70 72 73 74 74 74 76 69
Padilla, Vicente 32 32 35 36 40 53 60 68
Johnson, Randy 57 57 18 38 46 57 69 48
Schilling, Curt 16 18 52 26 22 22 21 44
Burnett, A.J. 27 28 29 29 28 29 31 36
Dempster, Ryan 27 27 34 31 30 32 33 36
Colon, Bartolo 26 16 17 18 25 33 40 35
Rogers, Kenny 28 29 29 30 31 30 30 35
Erickson, Scott 23 23 23 28 31 32 34 32
Sheets, Ben 33 33 33 31 30 31 31 32
Halladay, Roy 24 24 25 25 27 26 29 30
Morris, Matt 27 27 22 25 26 27 31 29
Hernandez, Livan 14 14 15 16 18 22 23 28
Millwood, Kevin 29 31 32 36 30 28 28 28
Guardado, Eddie 18 19 20 19 23 24 26 27
Zito, Barry 23 23 26 33 30 29 27 26
Pettitte, Andy 11 12 13 17 20 24 23 23
Penny, Brad 9 9 9 11 21 20 19 21
Leiter, Al 17 20 18 18 18 19 19 21
Sasaki, Kazuhiro 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 21
Mulder, Mark 21 22 14 16 16 17 21 20
Sabathia, C.C. 18 17 22 22 19 19 20 20
Wood, Kerry 14 14 19 27 20 19 18 19
Hudson, Tim 15 15 24 19 17 17 17 18
Pavano, Carl 15 15 15 16 18 18 17 17
Marquis, Jason 18 18 18 17 20 17 17 17
Alfonseca, Antonio 19 21 22 23 19 18 17 17
Lowe, Derek 13 13 13 13 13 16 16 16
Ishii, Kazuhisa 24 24 22 17 16 16 16 16
Mussina, Mike 5 5 8 10 18 14 12 15
Wilson, Paul 9 9 10 14 13 14 15 15
Hamilton, Joey 19 21 16 16 16 16 15 15
Koch, Billy 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 14
Lieber, Jon 21 22 13 13 13 13 13 13
Jimenez, Jose 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 13
Anderson, Matt 15 16 16 16 14 14 13 13
Hampton, Mike 34 35 20 16 15 14 14 13
Looper, Braden 26 26 29 25 19 16 15 13
Baldwin, James 11 11 12 10 11 12 12 12
Wells, Kip 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12
Moyer, Jamie 9 10 15 13 13 13 12 12
Abbott, Paul 15 15 16 17 13 12 12 12
Hernandez, Orlando 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11
Vazquez, Javier 7 7 13 11 11 11 11 11
Baez, Danys 12 13 14 14 15 14 11 11
Estes, Shawn 7 8 7 9 11 10 10 10


Daily Changes in Pitcher Ownership


Pitcher 4/1 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7
Oswalt, Roy 1 3 9 -8 -4 -4 -3
Beckett, Josh 1 1 -1 3 3 3 -5
Wells, David -1 5 6 -1 6 5 2
Hernandez, Carlos 2 1 1 0 0 2 -7
Padilla, Vicente 0 3 1 4 13 7 8
Johnson, Randy 0 -39 20 8 11 12 -21
Schilling, Curt 2 34 -26 -4 0 -1 23
Burnett, A.J. 1 1 0 -1 1 2 5
Dempster, Ryan 0 7 -3 -1 2 1 3
Colon, Bartolo -10 1 1 7 8 7 -5
Rogers, Kenny 1 0 1 1 -1 0 5
Erickson, Scott 0 0 5 3 1 2 -2
Sheets, Ben 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 1
Halladay, Roy 0 1 0 2 -1 3 1
Morris, Matt 0 -5 3 1 1 4 -2
Hernandez, Livan 0 1 1 2 4 1 5
Millwood, Kevin 2 1 4 -6 -2 0 0
Guardado, Eddie 1 1 -1 4 1 2 1
Zito, Barry 0 3 7 -3 -1 -2 -1
Pettitte, Andy 1 1 4 3 4 -1 0
Penny, Brad 0 0 2 10 -1 -1 2
Leiter, Al 3 -2 0 0 1 0 2
Sasaki, Kazuhiro 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1
Mulder, Mark 1 -8 2 0 1 4 -1
Sabathia, C.C. -1 5 0 -3 0 1 0
Wood, Kerry 0 5 8 -7 -1 -1 1
Hudson, Tim 0 9 -5 -2 0 0 1
Pavano, Carl 0 0 1 2 0 -1 0
Marquis, Jason 0 0 -1 3 -3 0 0
Alfonseca, Antonio 2 1 1 -4 -1 -1 0
Lowe, Derek 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Ishii, Kazuhisa 0 -2 -5 -1 0 0 0
Mussina, Mike 0 3 2 8 -4 -2 3
Wilson, Paul 0 1 4 -1 1 1 0
Hamilton, Joey 2 -5 0 0 0 -1 0
Koch, Billy 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
Lieber, Jon 1 -9 0 0 0 0 0
Jimenez, Jose 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0
Anderson, Matt 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0
Hampton, Mike 1 -15 -4 -1 -1 0 -1
Looper, Braden 0 3 -4 -6 -3 -1 -2
Baldwin, James 0 1 -2 1 1 0 0
Wells, Kip 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0
Moyer, Jamie 1 5 -2 0 0 -1 0
Abbott, Paul 0 1 1 -4 -1 0 0
Hernandez, Orlando 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Vazquez, Javier 0 6 -2 0 0 0 0
Baez, Danys 1 1 0 1 -1 -3 0
Estes, Shawn 1 -1 2 2 -1 0 0

5-Day Average Changes in Ownership


Pitcher 4/1 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7
Oswalt, Roy 1 4 13 5 1 -4 -10
Beckett, Josh 1 2 1 4 7 9 3
Wells, David -1 4 10 9 15 21 18
Hernandez, Carlos 2 3 4 4 4 4 -4
Padilla, Vicente 0 3 4 8 21 28 33
Johnson, Randy 0 -39 -19 -11 0 12 30
Schilling, Curt 2 36 10 6 6 3 -8
Burnett, A.J. 1 2 2 1 2 3 7
Dempster, Ryan 0 7 4 3 5 6 2
Colon, Bartolo -10 -9 -8 -1 7 24 18
Rogers, Kenny 1 1 2 3 2 1 6
Erickson, Scott 0 0 5 8 9 11 9
Sheets, Ben 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1
Halladay, Roy 0 1 1 3 2 5 5
Morris, Matt 0 -5 -2 -1 0 4 7
Hernandez, Livan 0 1 2 4 8 9 13
Millwood, Kevin 2 3 7 1 -1 -3 -4
Guardado, Eddie 1 2 1 5 6 7 7
Zito, Barry 0 3 10 7 6 4 0
Pettitte, Andy 1 2 6 9 13 11 10
Penny, Brad 0 0 2 12 11 10 12
Leiter, Al 3 1 1 1 2 -1 3
Sasaki, Kazuhiro 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Mulder, Mark 1 -7 -5 -5 -4 -1 6
Sabathia, C.C. -1 4 4 1 1 3 -2
Wood, Kerry 0 5 13 6 5 4 0
Hudson, Tim 0 9 4 2 2 2 -6
Pavano, Carl 0 0 1 3 3 2 2
Marquis, Jason 0 0 -1 2 -1 -1 -1
Alfonseca, Antonio 2 3 4 0 -1 -4 -5
Lowe, Derek 0 0 0 0 3 3 3
Ishii, Kazuhisa 0 -2 -7 -8 -8 -8 -6
Mussina, Mike 0 3 5 13 9 7 7
Wilson, Paul 0 1 5 4 5 6 5
Hamilton, Joey 2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1
Koch, Billy 1 1 2 3 3 2 2
Lieber, Jon 1 -8 -8 -8 -8 -9 0
Jimenez, Jose 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2
Anderson, Matt 1 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -3
Hampton, Mike 1 -14 -18 -19 -20 -21 -7
Looper, Braden 0 3 -1 -7 -10 -11 -16
Baldwin, James 0 1 -1 0 1 1 0
Wells, Kip 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0
Moyer, Jamie 1 6 4 4 4 2 -3
Abbott, Paul 0 1 2 -2 -3 -3 -4
Hernandez, Orlando 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Vazquez, Javier 0 6 4 4 4 4 -2
Baez, Danys 1 2 2 3 2 -2 -3
Estes, Shawn 1 0 2 4 3 2 3

As can be see by looking at Randy Johnson, his 5 day ownership change on 4/7 was a +30 based on the previous 5 days of -21 (4/7), +12 (4/6), +11 (4/5), +8 (4/4), and +20 (4/3). Yes folks sold him on 4/7 but that didn't overcome the net buys from the previous 4 days so his price went up the day after he pitched. Not quite like last year, eh.

Curt Schilling had a price drop on the day he pitched (this wouldn't have happened last year), but his five day average ownership change shows he should have dropped. On 4/7 he had a five day average change of -8 based on +23 (4/7), -1 (4/6), 0 (4/5), -4 (4/4) and -26 (4/3). Yes he was bought for his start on 4/7 but those buys didn't overcome the 4 days of selling following his previous start.

BTW - I'm sampling a randomly selected group of 375 teams. This gives a fairly clear, but not absolutely perfect, picture of what the trading patterns have been. I've also limited the list to the most popular 50 pitchers based on ownership levels on 4/7.

Enjoy the data

Richard
1Ref
      ID: 28045169
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:29 		Great as always, Richard. Thanks.
2Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 1832399
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:31 		Great data Richrd. will be interesting to see how the masses alter their trading habits in attempt to adjust to the new repricing scheme.
3KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:31 		Makes sense to me just like it did yesterday. Schilling's big buy day on 04/02 was just delaying the inevitable with regards to the 5-day lag. He loses 04/02 from the equation yesterday and his limited buys (for various reasons from it being the weekend to a longer trading week to other factors) couldn't overcome the sells on 04/03 and 04/04.

While I don't think a pitcher losing -$90k the day he pitches will be the norm, I do think the price change will be +/-$30k from $0k on average. In other words, rotating into starters the day they pitch likely won't get you any money this year and price movements will likely be reverse of last year: gaining after the start (as they lose the sells from after the previous start) and losing up to a start (as they lose the buys from before the previous start).

Of course that's dependent on the masses continuing to somewhat blindly rotate. If they start trading on trade refresh and holding, then it will completely change all of this. A lot will depend on what becomes the new mass strategy.

4KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:31 		MITH, we're starting to think too much alike. ;)

Richard, before I forget, GREAT DATA! Thanks for your hard work!

5Bodacious Tatahs
      ID: 22257199
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:32 		Is anyone out there other than me holding an absolute dud on your pitching staff waiting to use your trades as to optimize money gains?

The magnificent output of Antonio Alfonseca (who doesnt play tonight) just has me jumping for joy. I think Ill hold him for one more week to see if it will turn around. BTW; I fully expect it to.

Thats the risk I took. Also; btw I traded Guardardo for Alfonseca the day before the season began.

Too funny.
6Mike D
      Donor
      ID: 5915257
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:34 		Interesting stuff Richard. Thanks. RJ shows a +10 going into today's data, which of course is not known. Not much of a positive buffer, but a buffer none the less. Especially if people hold.
7KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:35 		Alfonseca > Padilla yesterday. Padilla is gaining money even up to his start and CHC don't play today. If Padilla tanks, he should still have a couple of day's worth of gains in him, so it could be worth upwards of $300-$500k, plus whatever points Padilla gets.
8Ref
      ID: 28045169
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:36 		tatahs, I did the opposite. I didn't like the way fonz got shelled before opening day and moved him for guardado right before the freeze on opening day.
9KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:37 		If approximately 75% of the people who bought Schilling yesterday trade him today, then he'll be close to +$0k for today. Could be interesting if he's down again today.
10Ender
      ID: 52438315
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:39 		Super, Richard, thank you much.

The X Factor, and I think this is HUGE and can't be predicted using data well at any point let alone after a week, is the behavior and reaction of managers to the price changes. I certainly don't expect the last week to mirror what we will see in late June for example. I'm not saying it will be radically different, but we will go trhough period where we think the masses will do one thing and something contrary will happen because the decisions weren't made based on the assumptions we predicted. That's clear to me based on how very few people feel like they are in tune with just the simple 5 day premise. We have some seriously intelligent people crunching through these numbers and some are still scratching their head.

Basically, I think the masses will make incorrect assumptions based on the data we've seen and create trends that we simply won't anticipate. They will re-evaluate based on those trends and it will drift in a different direction. How long will that last? I don't know.
11mrbig
      ID: 45315112
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:40 		For he's a jolly good fellow!
For he's a jolly good fellow!
For he's a jolly goooooood feeeellllooww!

which nobody can deny!

Thanks Richard.

So we should expect mild gains for Schilling today....
12KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:47 		mrbig, see #9. It's really going to depend on how many of the Schilling buyers from yesterday have trades to rotate him today. Either way, I would expect him to be somewhere between -$30k and +$30k.
13ChicagoTRS
      Sustainer
      ID: 19325417
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:48 		Thanks Richard...This is awesome data. Really helps you understand what exactly is going on. How many rosters did you sample? Looks like about 1000?

Interesting that Oswalt is so owned going into Colorado...a lot of people may end up being sorry they didn't fear Colorado.


14RecycledSpinalFluid
      ID: 42121814
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:51 		375 teams, ChicagoTRS.
15Ender
      ID: 52438315
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:51 		"BTW - I'm sampling a randomly selected group of 375 teams." - Richard

Waaaaaaaaay at the bottom of the original post.
16mrbig
      ID: 45315112
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:56 		KKB - by mild I mean $20-40. guess we'll find out in a few minutes...
17ChicagoTRS
      Sustainer
      ID: 19325417
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:58 		Thanks....didn't read that far...375 is a good sample...so almost 25% are holding Oswalt in Coors...I vote for a -100...

Also shows there is a lot of room for upward price movement on all pitchers as noone is even owned by 25%. Amazing that only just over 10% have had RJ on their roster...I already think that has to be a big change from last year.
18Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:58 		KKB - your generalization[3] about pitchers usually losing on start day just doesn't make sense.

Let's start with the assumption that a pitcher starts every 5th day. In this case, if he is on more rosters for the current start than he was for his prior start, he'll gain. If he is on fewer rosters, he'll lose. It's as simple as that.

Schilling was on fewer rosters yesterday, so he lost. He may lose on the day of his next start too, since it's in Colorado, and he may be on even fewer rosters. But for the next one after that, he'll make a nice gain, because he'll be on many more rosters than he was for his Coors start.

For your generalization - that starters will typically lose a little on start day - to be true, then pitchers would have to continually show up on fewer and fewer rosters. By the end of the year, almost no one would ever own Johnson of Schilling.

And, barring injury, that seems like a silly assumption.

For starters working with 5 days of rest, the gain should be more pronounced, because some of the previous sells will drop out before the next sells get added back in. So guys working with the extra day of rest should normally appreciate on start day.

The caveats relate to timing. Weekends will have less trading activity. And as the trade week wears on, there will be fewer trades as trade availability disappears. But that will reset the following week.

I still maintain that the normal price change for popularly rotated pitchers (on start day) will be gains for pitchers who start on Wednesday and Thursday, and losses for pitchers who start on a weekend, particularly Sunday. And pitchers working on 5 days of rest should usually enjoy a price gain on start day.
19perk9600
      ID: 12310312
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 11:59 		This looks like it confirms pretty much what people have been thinking. Kudos and thanks as always.
20Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 1832399
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:01 		IMO (and I apologize if this has already been addressed), oodles of money will be made on pitching this year, just not necessarilary through rotation. Pitcher trains will work much like hitter trains, except that for every one you hold, you will NEED a trade in reserve to dump him. The masses do not appear as patient or reserved as I expected they might, so I fear that one poor outing is all it might take to derail.
Think about it, an overproducing (considering price) pitcher steadily gains $$ every day after his second consecutive start. On his 3rd widely held start he throws a stinker and two days later he suffers a $$ loss for the first time since the train left the station. Since nobody would have bought him in the two days since his poor start, a snowball has started and many of the lemmings who weren't initially scared off by one bad outing will surely start to bail out now. Caught without a pitcher trade there and you could stand to lose most of what you gained while holding him -in one third the time.
21J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:07 		Thanks Richard

And thanks Guru for making it so simple to understand (post 18).

So, I'm thinking it'll be smart to lock in Schilling & Johnson, instead of rotating, save the trades for pitchers who come on strong. And thats how you'll make your money. Since Schilling and Johnson appear on so few rosters, as the season goes on, chances are their price will gradually go up as the season goes on.
22JeffG
      Sustainer
      ID: 40451227
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:08 		Great data Richard. Thank you.

This just confirms what a few may have said earlier but I will repeat. You are not going to make money by rotating pitchers into their starts (Randro-ing) like last season. You can make money on pitchers by the same methodology used for every day players. However, I think it will still be easy to see which pitchers could lose money like in prior years - those heavily owned who have a bad start and are likely to be dumped.
23beastiemiked
      ID: 14821921
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:09 		Yep J, I was planning last night how I was going to get the "2 headed Monster" after the coors trip.
24KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:10 		Guru, I was simply generalizing about pitchers that are heavily rotated like RJ and Schilling whose ownership on game day and after will likely spike in similar amounts. Like I said, there's likely going to be a $30k window on either side of $0k that these kinds of pitchers will fall into. Now if someone like Hudson or Clemens or Oswalt starts pitching extremely well, then obviously this doesn't apply. I'm talking more about guys who are going to have a very similar number of sells and buys surrounding each start. Guys like RJ, Schilling, and Pedro in the past.
25mrbig
      ID: 45315112
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:18 		KKB - Of course I was just kidding about mild meaning +$20-40 k. I really meant he would gain exactly $60 k. gosh I'm smart.
26KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:24 		mrbig, LOL! Pretty close to what I expected. I'm not all that surprised since it would have taken a 75% selloff (of those who bought yesterday) of a guy that just got 205 TSNP's for him to stay negative.
27Guru
      ID: 462532812
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:26 		Sorry, KKB - I misread your statement slightly. I thought you said the typical start price will be a slight loss.

However, I still disagree with you somewhat (if I now understand you). I think the typical (i.e., average) start day price change will be a gain, especially for the most actively rotated pitchers. This is because:

1) Sometimes they'll work on an extra day of rest, thereby getting a price boost.

2) Over the season, as teams gain wealth, they'll systematically appear on more and more rosters.

Look at Richard's data. Both Schilling and Randy have been on less than 20% of sampled rosters for their starts. As teams are better able to afford them, they'll get much more heavily owned. And that will put a sustained, upward bias on their price trends, which will also impact start days.
28 Eustacio
      ID: 450111410
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:29 		Great data, Richard.

It seems as though, in terms of gaining cash, pitchers will have to be changed as we do hitters, or in a similar fashion. This really doesn't seem that different from prior years in some respects though. Anybody remember Shoney? The man made me tons of money a couple years ago, even when he wasn't pitching. This might just amplify the effect. What we lose is the massive rotating for gains.

Now the question regards how to manage your PTs. You can earn a ton of points on pitchers with a well-planned rotation, but if you're using the money going after trains, you lose those rotation points. It's going to be interesting to see how strategies develop for managing PTs.

Of course, if, as Guru points out, rotating into a pitcher the day of his start should produce money, rotation may still be a viable option. Hrm, going to have to think about this one...
29KrazyKoalaBears
      Donor
      ID: 266182910
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:38 		Guru, no doubt. Mainly, I'm looking at the guys who will be on 4 days rest and who will have a similar number of sells as buys around their pitching day. In other words, the guys we always used to love to rotate in a RanDro fashion.

I agree that guys on a 5 day rest will see decent gains because of the loss of any selloff from their previous start. I also agree that guys who are performing well will have a slight increase in ownership as the season goes, which would translate to gains on pitching day.

I think you're looking at it from an overall perspective and I'm looking more at the specific RanDro-esque pitcher rotation, since it's what most people had become used to doing in previous years. Someone like you, who never looked only at a RanDro style of rotation, would have a natural tendency to see the flaw in my statement if it were applied to pitchers across the board.

In other words, you're one step ahead of the masses because you're used to looking at an overall pitching strategy. I think those that get stuck in RanDro or RandLing are going to have problems this year because those 3 guys will almost always be on 4 days rest and they're going to experience only minimal ownership increase this early in the season. And by the time their ownership starts increasing, it may be too late for those with a strict RanDro/RandLing strategy.

And of course this is all based on the masses not creating a new strategy. I can't see that happening, so what I'm saying will probably only apply for about the next 2-3 weeks, at most.

30Guru
      ID: 462532812
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:41 		On average, it should produce money, but not the big money of prior years.

I think we'll quickly learn to identify the best rotation cycles (from a pricing standpoint), and some of these will not be contrary to point efficiency.
31Bandos
      ID: 422571916
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:43 		In regard to # 20,

Saw Padilla throws 1 or 2 more good games, then a stinker. He will still be going up in price because:

Anyone who doesn't own him for this start will get him and 100,000+ he will earn, (as I did trading rivera for him yesterday so i can get schillling after coors) so he will continue to go up in price and i predict, he will contiunue to go up for 2 days AFTER the stinker, so maybe, just maybe, the masses will not be too scared off, since they are making money off of him, even after a bad start. My 0.02.
32ChicagoTRS
      Sustainer
      ID: 19325417
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:46 		Once a pitcher that is highly owned like Padilla...where people have owned him for awhile and not just rotated into him...one bad start could see him drop like a rock the day after the start and then probably continue to decline for 7 or 8 days...from the first days drops....then the panic sells the 2nd and 3rd days after the start. People will have to be very careful with pitcher trains...because I think the crashes will be tremendous and extended.
33Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 1832399
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 12:52 		I agree that in your situation his price would continue to rise two days after his stinker because of the latent effects of previous buys. However, many will inevitably sell, as is always the case when a pitcher has a poor outing. This, combined with the fact that he is already highly owned at this time and can't be enticing many new owners anymore will (likely) cause a drop by that third day. Even if that doesn't cause any panic (though it surely would cause at least some), the fourth day would see even larger sell if for no other reason than we are one day further removed from the time before he tanked. Two days of significant losses for a highly owned player is plenty to trigger that snowball. Padilla is obviously a great pitcher to have right now, just make sure to keep a trade handy for when the time comes.
34walk
      Leader
      ID: 14154112
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 13:41 		Typical from Richard, the Lord of the Re-pricings. Thanks, sire.

Very meaningful and easy to understand. The new pricing strategy, as I reverse my stand here, will make the season much more challenging, and create many interesting decision points/puzzles along the way. No long do we get the double-bonus, but instead, at least for now, have to perhaps choose between optimal trade strategy and optimal money strategy. The both/and exists, but is not as optimal either financially or trade-wise as it was in prior years.

- walk
35ttz
      ID: 23326814
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 14:37 		I may have missed this point elsewhere, but are trades still 'normalized' each day? I assume that the total number of trades influences a certain day's price changes, but does it influence future changes, too?

Thanks.
36Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 15:10 		I think trades are normalized as usual, but only after aggregating all five days for pitchers. Essentially, the sum of 5 days of trades are processed just as though they were from a single period.
37greedy allhair
      ID: 52112514
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 15:44 		Thanks Richard.
38beastiemiked
      ID: 3531815
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 15:44 		Hmm, looks like Oswalt is set to lose a lot in the next couple of days.
39MattG
      ID: 31311816
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 16:41 		Richard, Great stuff man, we can always count on you to give us the raw data.

Locking Schilling And RJ sounds good, I just have to get enough money to do so...

40APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 17:34 		Doesnt this already confirm what we already know and now have 30 different threads on?
41beastiemiked
      ID: 3531815
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 17:45 		Yep, that Richard is AWESOME.
42NY Sports Teams
      Sustainer
      ID: 385248
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 18:45 		Thanks, great work as usual Richard.
43Valkyrie
      Leader
      ID: 54012146
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 20:22 		Richard- you are the man- Are you that good at finding oil?
44GoatLocker
      ID: 2601630
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 20:30 		Thanks Richard,
Sure appreciate the data as always.
Sure helps to confirm the thoughts several of us have had.

Cliff
45deepsnapper
      Sustainer
      ID: 421144298
      Mon, Apr 08, 2002, 23:15 		Thanks Richard. It's nice to see some analysis based on real data rather than someone's WAG (which we've seen a few of so far).
46J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 12:09 		Now, the next question is, is it too late to jump on the Padilla train? Its still possible that he's on less than one-third of all rosters, meaning he's got more to go. Cheap pitching is at a premium right now. Especially under $2mil.

And Alfonseca HAS TO GO!
47Doubting Geezo
      ID: 324463115
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 12:35 		Am I the only one who doubts the smallworld calculations for pitcher price changes?? Something's definitely amiss.

A.J. Burnett up 60k a day after he loses 28 points!! If you were considering buying and had the trade - wouldn't you pick him up before he pitched against Montreal. Who would wait till after he got roughed up by Montreal to make the buy? You'd also have to wait 5-6 days for his next start. Milton up 20k after losing 76 points during a Tribal scalping?

It's illogical and I don't buy it.
48J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 12:39 		yep, I'm pretty sure its just you :)

Pitcher gains are based on trades over the last 5 days, so its gonna be the norm to see stuff like this.
49Khahan
      ID: 12432113
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 12:40 		Doubting Geezo...re-read this thread and it will make sense.
50ksoze
      Sustainer
      ID: 50643419
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 12:40 		I take it you haven't actually read this thread DG?
52Pearl St. Punisher
      ID: 5261117
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 14:56 		DG, read the thread before you post some random rants.

ChicagoTRS: Oswalt made Coors his bzitch. I plan on holding Oswalt season-long, barring injury. Any pitcher who can go into the 7th w/a shutout at Coors is worthy of holding yearlong.

-Punisher
53ChicagoTRS
      Sustainer
      ID: 58735170
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 22:21 		PSP...Oswalt was impressive...I still think it is a bad idea holding any pitcher for a Coors start...but Oswalt worked out. I will be adding him as planned to a team or two now that he has Coors behind him. He definitely is a bargain at his price. The only thing that scares me is he is the most widely owned pitcher and who knows what will happen when he gets shelled as all pitchers do a few times a season.
54APerfect10
      ID: 39143521
      Tue, Apr 09, 2002, 22:40 		I'm not so sure it was Oswalt or the Rockies just arent hitting. Hopefully they continue to slump through Schillings start :)
55 vinnythezee
      ID: 442452811
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 13:26 		What a mind numbing, but incredibly useful thread!

Just found this site a week or two ago and have printed, read, been confused by, reread, and definitely been enlightened by many of the historical threads. Thanks to all for the info and insight.

I am particularly impressed by the apparent usefulness of these roster surveys / sampling routines. Is there a tool to automatically develop such a sample, or is this type of information available regularly somewhere? I have looked, but haven't been able to find such a tool anywhere. I imagine that it is not available and Richard is just a genius (proven by numerous posts) but I can hope, right?

Thanks in advance.
56Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 13:51 		Richard's spreadsheet is not "commonly" available. As far as I know he has the only copy. The data is compiled by sampling rosters each day and comparing to the previous day. The process was much easier in the days when rosters were real time. You could get an accurate picture prior to repricing as to who the gainers and losers would be. Now you can only tell after the fact.
57 vinnythezee
      ID: 442452811
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 13:55 		Oh, thanks for the reply.

I would imagine with the 5-day pricing the past info is still helpful, even if it is not real time. Perhaps I'll take a stab at automating something myself - I assume he does not do it by hand?

Thanks again.
58Mattinglyinthehall
      Sustainer
      ID: 1629107
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 14:09 		Vinnythezee

Welcome!
59 vinnythezee
      ID: 442452811
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 14:29 		Thanks - good to be here. There is TONS of knowledge here and I am thankful to be able to take advatage of it. Maybe someday I'll even contribute to the knowledge......

BTW, my head is scheduled to explode later today.
60Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 15:02 		At least you can plan around it. That's far better than the typical spontaneous cranial explosion.
61Irish Red
      ID: 269311812
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 15:15 		ROTFLMAO!!!!
62 vinnythezee
      ID: 442452811
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 15:25 		I have it narrowed down to within an hour, so I can avoid overlap with the cranial-rectal inversion with which I regularly suffer. I'll do my best to avoid those two events occurring simultaneously, and of course I'll save my work often ;-)
63Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 15:27 		You may be better off if the cranial-rectal inversion happens first, though I wouldn't want to be in the blast radius. The shrapnel would be vile.
64 vinnythezee
      ID: 442452811
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 15:44 		You are correct - vile bile on my tile would not make my wife smile - at least not for a while.
65Rogue Nine
      ID: 11224281
      Fri, Mar 28, 2003, 16:02 		LOL
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