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Subject: MLB beat the streak
Posted by: CubbiePete
- [5625168] Wed, Apr 10, 2002, 15:48
Anyone doing this game? Currently I have a 9 game hitting streak and I know that one day I'll pick a dud. So does anyone have a system on picking a hitter other than pick a good player vs. a sucky pitcher/staff ? Should I pick leadoff hitters only cuz they get more AB's? Beat the streak |
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| 99 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, May 04, 2002, 13:06
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Hmmm. Although there aren't 163 independent 20 game spans . . . thus, you can't just take the 1.1% times 163 . . . Didn't mean to imply that. All I meant to say is that you'll have a lot of chances. It's a long season.
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| 100 | Huskiez
ID: 41220315
Sat, May 04, 2002, 17:38
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Hm not sure if the hitter would be guaranteed 4 at bats per game, but instead plate appearances.. if someone has a .330 average, that doesn't factor in walks.. so depending on how many times a player is walked per game he could have 5 plate appearances and only two at bats (e.g. ARod yesterday).. luckily he got a hit for me though.
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| 101 | Stuck in the Sixties
Leader
ID: 59444219
Sat, May 04, 2002, 19:19
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Madman,
Now we know why I didn't major in math but as you point out even the 20-game streak doesn't mean much.
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| 102 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sun, May 05, 2002, 15:19
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My streak just hit 15 games.
The real difficulty, however, is getting your streak through Monday's. Usually, there aren't that many games, so you can't get the good match-ups.
Yeah, 5 AB's is probably too much to average. I'm getting 3.67 or so over the last 10 games (the ones listed on the Results board).
Nevertheless, I think a .330 BA is an extreme underestimate for the underlying probability of a hit. Maybe the last two weeks have been a fluke for me (I just started 17 games ago), but if you play your matchups right, there always seems to be a top-of-the-order hitter who is visiting a team that is throwing a sub-par pitcher.
Thus, I picked Mike Sweeney yesterday and today, for example. He's not going to walk much, and he's hitting 3rd. Not ideal, but not bad. I've relied heavily on Ichiro lately, as well. Got one game from Rollins in COL, etc.
I agree that it will be hard to get to 34 games, which is what you need to do to win prize money. I doubt I will make it that far.
But the game is free, and the prize is worth $150 for getting that far. You can't expect it to be TOO easy . . .
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| 103 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Wed, May 08, 2002, 20:45
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butt
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| 104 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, May 10, 2002, 01:20
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Slim pickings for tomorrow. Anyone have any good ideas? I've tentatively got Ichiro going again. But I'm getting nervous that he's due for a bad one . . .
Also, I always get a bit worried picking over the weekend, since managers sometimes get funky and rest people.
Is Damon a good bet to bounce back after his hitless wonder today? Nomar got a rest, right? Dunno. Figured I'd pose the question while I did a b.u.t.t.
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| 105 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, May 10, 2002, 01:33
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Changing my mind. I was thinking Vidro, but check him out against Livian.
Ended up with Jeter. I had him for my second-ever game, and he went hitless. Here's hoping his 12/26 (or whatever it is) against Milton isn't a fluke. And/or that his 3 hits yesterday was a sign that he's in a groove. Still taking other ideas. This game (Friday) would theoretically be #20 for me if I can get lucky! Put a gurupie on the world-wide leaderboard (assuming there isn't one there already. For all I know, a Gurupie is leading the thing) . . .
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| 106 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 1924582
Fri, May 10, 2002, 01:47
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I have Lofton vs Schoeneweis. Lofton is hitting .375 against him (6 for 16, so its not a large sample).
Schoeneweis vs ChiSox (thanks for the link blue hen, almighty)
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| 107 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Fri, May 10, 2002, 10:01
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Madman, I checked out Vidro's numbers against Livan and I can see how that would change your mind.
While I was there, I noticed that Vlad the Impaler is 8/20 against Livan and since he loves hitting in Montreal in night games I went with Vlad tonight.
I just signed up so this is my first pick. I hope I get off to a good start. Jeter is a good-looking pick also..good luck
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| 108 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Fri, May 10, 2002, 10:06
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Speaking of home/away splits...Lofton has a pretty large discrepancy between his home and away stats. I believe he is hitting .440 at home and .240 away. That doesn't mean he will crap the bed tonight, but it's just something to consider.
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| 109 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 211013916
Fri, May 10, 2002, 10:17
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Well, if I'm going to lose my streak, it will be tonight. I have a pattern going. My Last 21 Games:
5 game streak
forget to pick 2 games
6 game streak
1 incorrect pick
7 game streak (current)
So if I keep this up sometime in 2006 or so, I whould have a 34 game streak. Its just a matter of time. Bring it on.
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| 110 | JeffG
Sustainer
ID: 40451227
Fri, May 10, 2002, 10:21
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Did you guys notice that the person who had a 25-game streak in the standings (cott83) had Nomar last night, who was given a day off and did not play yesterday. Tough break. Nomar keeps his 15 game streak alive, but cott83 is back to zero.
I have not bettered my 8 game streak yet, although I had two that reached 7, both broken by Devil Ray pitching (Jacques Jones 4/29, Jeter 5/8).
I have Lofton tonight.
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| 111 | Khahan
ID: 12432113
Fri, May 10, 2002, 11:23
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I'm done with Nomar. He's killed 2 streaks of 7 or more games for me and stopped 1 other streak from getting started. I'm 0 for 3 picking him.
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| 112 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Fri, May 10, 2002, 12:47
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Stuck with Jeter. I had actually considered Lofton, but he just made me nervous. I do like Vlad some today. Maybe should have gone with him. Dunno.
The fact that players sometimes sit, and that you have to pick well before lineups are announced, means that it is very easy to get caught like that. The Nomar break would be bad. He's been slumping some, anyway, however, and I wouldn't have picked him. Early in my current streak I survived a Nomar game (iirc, he was 1/5), but I'm staying away until he gets hot.
Ironically, however, I picked Jeter today who was 2/17 going into last night. Ugh. This game can be nerve racking when you get your streak built up a bit!
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| 113 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Fri, May 10, 2002, 22:00
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BTW, just saw on the MLB front page for this game that only 2 fans had 31 game hit streaks last year. Not sure how many tried. FYI. This game is not for the faint of heart!
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| 114 | Madman
ID: 114331112
Sat, May 11, 2002, 13:03
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Dang. Should have picked Vlad last night. I'm
not on the leaderboard because of tie-breaks.
Doh!
If Jeter gets a hit again today, however, that
will become a moot issue. Decided to ride a
hot hand against a relatively weak pitcher.
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| 115 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, May 11, 2002, 22:11
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Advice -- don't pick any Cleveland or KC players for tomorrow, either, without checking the weather. Looks like Sundays game might be rained out, as well, from my perspective.
With Pedro pitching against Seattle, Ichiro is out. Vlad is hot and would be a reasonable pickup. Lots of decent pitchers out there -- no matchups are screaming at me.
Right now, I'm tentatively going to try to ride Jeter one more day, I think.
BTW, notice that gbpacker55 has a LIVE 29 game hit streak going into tomorrow. Pointmade also has a 26 gamer. Impressive.
Don't forget that there is a month-long championship. I'd bet that as long as you can get a 20 gamer going, you have a chance to win the monthly championship. Not a great chance, but a chance nevertheless. The longest live streak this month is 11, obviously. So if you have a short streak alive right now, you still are in it for this month's contest.
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| 116 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Mon, May 13, 2002, 10:11
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I hit with Vlad on Friday and Saturday and went with Andruw Jones yesterday.
Today is a really rough day for picking. I think I am just going to go with Helton at home against Olsen.
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| 117 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Mon, May 13, 2002, 11:20
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Whitey Yeah, I agree about today. Monday's are always tough.
I was thinking of picking a Florida hitter for the same reason you picked Helton. But their top 3 are totally uncertain. Not even sure WHO is going to hit in the top 3 spots today.
Colorado, on the other hand, is facing Penny. Ugh. I'd normally recommend Uribe or Pierre in that case, but they went a combined 0-11 yesterday and are facing a quality pitcher today.
Thus, your Helton pick is reasonable I think.
Personally, I'm pushing the envelope and going with Rollins at Houston. Redding gives up more than a hit per inning, and the Homerdome down there will hopefully give Rollins 5 AB's. Given that he was 0-4 yesterday (I think), I'm betting he won't go 0-9.
Just crossing my fingers that he doesn't get the day off . . .
BTW, I'm "madman999" on the leaderboard, FWIW. 22 games and counting if Rollins plays and gets a hit. Guess I have my "one" streak for the season; played 24 games and my season is already over! :) Reference to Stuck in the Sixties post 95.
BTW, do not underestimate the importance of picking the visiting team. Rollins was due up in the bottom of the 9th yesterday, and someone on the leaderboard had him. If Arizona would have scored 2 in the top of the 9th to tie, Rollins would have had a chance to get a hit in the bottom of the inning. As it was, however, he only got 4 AB's. FYI. Whenever possible, pick top of the order visiting players at a park that is immune to rainouts and who has a lousy or mediocre pitcher going. Having a bad bullpen is a plus.
It's better to pick a .300 hitter under those circumstances than a .370 hitter in bad circumstances.
With all that said, sometimes you have to play the matchups. And today just doesn't have many quality matchups. So picking a .370 hitter like Helton who is hot makes some sense. Like with all difficult games, you have to get a sense for when you break the rules and when you obey them. Personally, I'm too scared, and thus I'm going with my rulebook and picking Rollins.
Makes me VERY, VERY nervous, to tell you the truth. Compared to last Friday when I picked Jeter against Milton. I didn't even read the boxscores until half-way through that game since I was so confident. 12/26 lifetime, on the road, in a dome with a Jeter tends to do that for you :)
Incidentally, it is because there are games that are **almost** locks occassionally (like the Jeter game on Friday), I think this game is possible. If I really believed every single game was a random draw with an 80% chance of success, I wouldn't be playing.
The trick is to find those rare games each day that are almost locks.
Unfortunately, today, I don't see any. Going to be a nail-biter.
P.S. Can't believe Ichiro got 2 hits yesterday. That guy is on fire. Makes picking this next week easier . . . too bad SEA isn't playing.
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| 118 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Mon, May 13, 2002, 11:23
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BTW, I should note that I was reasonably nervous Saturday and Sunday picking Jeter, as well. Those were blind "rule-book" picks, although I believed (correctly as it turned out) that his slump was over and that he was turning it up a notch.
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| 119 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Mon, May 13, 2002, 11:29
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I agree about your reason for leaning towards visiting teams in good weather/dome stadiums. The counter point to that is that players generally hit better at home. There are the exceptions, but when I look at splits for most hitters it seems that they fare better at home.
Good luck with Rollins tonight..I will be rooting for ya. By the way, tomorrow doesn't seem much better as far as quality matchups.
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| 120 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Mon, May 13, 2002, 11:35
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Regarding home/away splits...for example Rollins tends to hit much better at home but he also has had better success at night vs. day:
OBP SLG AVG
----------------------
Home .427 .571 .363
Away .303 .387 .258
Day .309 .360 .260
Night.412 .563 .350
Actually, Rollins is unbelievably better at home, but Astros Stadium will boost his road numbers being such a hitters park.
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| 121 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 297382911
Mon, May 13, 2002, 11:49
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I haven't been looking too closely at potential rain-outs. According to the rules quoted by JeffG in posts 13 and 14, rain-outs don't count.
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| 122 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Mon, May 13, 2002, 12:23
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silver-n-black: Good point. I missed that in the rules:
Scoring in MLB.com Beat The Streak is simple. Your score is measured by the number of consecutive days the player(s) you select are credited with a hit during the 2002 MLB regular season.
If you select a player who does not get a hit during a day for which you selected him, your streak ends and you are free to start again from zero.
If a player you select does not play during the day for which you selected him for any reason, your streak will end and you are free to start again from zero.
Your streak will remain intact in the event of a cancelled or postponed game.
In the event that a player you select plays in a double-header, your streak will continue as long as the player gets at least one hit in either of the two games.
Still not a good idea to pick hitters in places where rain might happen, since the game could be shortened. But it's not the death-knell I had thought it was. So scratch that bit.
Whitey Hmmm. Honestly, I hadn't thought of the road/home split factor. Have to think about that one some more. I was kind of operating under the assumption that there isn't a fundamental difference between the ability to get a hit on the road and at home -- whatever split difference there is is solely because of the ballpark.
However, at the same time I did that, I was thinking of Rollins as a reasonably solid hitter. Which could be an incorrect assumption if Veteran's Stadium is artificially inflating his stats. . .
FWIW, his career splits are much closer . . . .293 to .278 I think, home v. away.
He's not the greatest pick, I admit that. Probably a good chance of my streak ending today.
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| 123 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Mon, May 13, 2002, 13:13
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gbpacker55 went with Jacque Jones today. Gotta root against him. The other two people ahead of me with active streaks went with Jeff Kent and Cliff Floyd. I have to admit to thinking about Floyd. Didn't think at all about Jones or Kent.
Furthermore, NomarChrisCH (22) and magnumco (21) and supersluggingdude (21) went with Helton.
elamdebbie (21) went with Bonds. HUH??? Going to get 2 Ab's total if he's lucky given all the walks. Can't believe you can get to 21 with picks like this. jaykammerer (21) went with slamming Sammy.
cpa68 did go for Rollins along with me, so I don't feel totally stupid. But his streak just got broken the other day . . .
For as few games as there are today, there are no consensus picks.
Pretty wild! Definitely not rooting for Bonds, Sammy, Jones, Floyd, or Kent today.
And if you hadn't picked Helton, Whitey, I'd be rooting against him, too :).
Going to be an interesting night.
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| 124 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 297382911
Mon, May 13, 2002, 13:17
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As far as today goes, I wound up going with Lo Duca. I know catchers are an iffy pick but it looks like he had his day off yesterday. Plus he's lifetime .500 (8 for 16) vs. Estes, who's been stinking it up lately.
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| 125 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Mon, May 13, 2002, 22:41
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Dang. Well, my streak is over at 22 barring a miracle comeback by Philly in the 9th. Rollins 0-4. Back to the drawing board!
Hope you guys fare better. Helton should get at least 1 more chance, probably 2. LoDuca obviously has more AB's coming.
At least I can say my pick PLAYED today. gbpacker's gotta feel like a moron by picking Jaque Jones today.
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| 126 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 58735170
Mon, May 13, 2002, 23:04
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Madman...Congrats on 22 games...that is great streak.
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| 127 | Huskiez
ID: 41220315
Mon, May 13, 2002, 23:13
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Overall leader of 30 has his streak broken as Jacque Jones did not play. The other top two leaders had Floyd and Kent; I had Floyd and he got injured in the 5th without a hit, and Kent might not get a hit also.. lot of streaks stopping tonight.
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| 129 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Tue, May 14, 2002, 01:35
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David Bell extends my streak to 2 games with a single in the 10th inning. Why did I have David Bell going? Disgruntled after losing a decent streak the other day.
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| 130 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 211013916
Tue, May 14, 2002, 01:38
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Lets take a 2nd stab at this...
Here is something to try and make looking up specific "Pitcher vs Team" matchups (so you can look at the daily starting pitchers). This will open the ESPN Pitcher vs. Batter Pages.
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| 131 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Wed, May 15, 2002, 09:17
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Jim Edmonds anyone?? Also looking at Jeter tonight.
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| 132 | Madman
ID: 3233813
Wed, May 15, 2002, 09:43
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ChicagoTRS -- thanks. It was fun while it lasted.
-----------
I am suddenly snake-bitten. I caused Ichiro to go hitless last night. Sorry, folks.
Believe it or not, I'm going with a gut pick tonight. Since I have no streak, I'm going with Chuck Knoblauch. He's been seeing the ball extremely well lately, and I think he's really turning his slump around. If I had a streak active, I wouldn't do it. But, what the heck? Worst that happens is that I fail to start my next streak. :)
RSF -- cooooooool.... :)
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| 133 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Wed, May 15, 2002, 09:53
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That truly is a gut pick Madman. I also agree that it is much easier (and more fun) to make gut picks when just starting a streak.
After I got my 3-game streak broken by Helton I didn't make a selection yesterday. Went with Edmonds today.
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| 134 | JeffG
Sustainer
ID: 40451227
Wed, May 15, 2002, 09:58
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Fantastic tool RSF!
Thanks SOOOO much.
I'm going with Jeter tonight, Chipper Jones tomorrow. I'll probably do a week worth's of prelim picking tonight with the help of that tool.
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| 135 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Thu, May 16, 2002, 10:56
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Hey Madman, Knobby came through for you. Edmonds came through for me.
Tonight it's Frank Thomas for me.
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| 136 | JeffG
Sustainer
ID: 40451227
Thu, May 16, 2002, 11:19
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Everybody remember to pick a Royal or Indian on Saturday 5/18. They have a doubleheader.
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| 137 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 297382911
Thu, May 16, 2002, 12:59
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I'm thinking Sweeney for Saturday, .625 vs. Nagy, not that great against Drese, but he should get something.
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| 138 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 297382911
Thu, May 16, 2002, 16:38
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Chipper already with a hit today, puts my streak at 8.
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| 139 | DMAN
ID: 400523017
Thu, May 16, 2002, 21:58
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Streaks of 24 and 23 broken for 2 unlucky souls tonight.
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| 140 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 211013916
Thu, May 16, 2002, 22:11
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My 1 game streak is Nomar, err no more, thanks to Nomar.
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| 141 | Whitey
Sustainer
ID: 47130129
Fri, May 17, 2002, 13:04
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Ah jeez....I forgot to put my pick in today. I just started last Friday and I just broke my second three game streak by not putting my pick in on time.
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| 142 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 297382911
Fri, May 17, 2002, 16:48
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Has anyone started to look ahead to Monday. As usual, it's a tough day for picking. Five games, no match-ups that really jump out at you. Not a lot of batters vs. pitchers with long histories.
May wait 'til Monday morning to see if the pitching probables change.
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| 143 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 424241718
Sat, May 18, 2002, 11:00
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So...Nagy's not starting today, might have to reconsider my Sweeney pick. KC is throwing two lefties out there, and Vizquel is hitting .400 against lefties. But, then again, if I make a switch, Sweeney will probably go 5 for 9 or something.
Trying to extend to 10 games.
Hour to go...
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| 144 | Madman
ID: 21020124
Sat, May 18, 2002, 13:19
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I had Sweeney locked a long time ago. He's going to play two games of a double-header. If he doesn't get a hit, something is terribly, terribly wrong in the world.
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| 145 | silver-n-black
Donor
ID: 424241718
Sat, May 18, 2002, 14:23
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Yeah, I stuck with him. The only reason I waivered was because Nagy wasn't pitching as originally scheduled according to ESPN's probables.
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| 146 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 42121814
Fri, May 24, 2002, 11:48
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BUTTafuco
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| 147 | JeffG
Sustainer
ID: 40451227
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 13:41
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Played the post season version of beat the streak. I ended up coming in second place with a 17-game streak. final standings My streak started from the beginning of the post season and ended when Darin Erstad went 0-4 in game 4 of the World Series. I played all regular season and my best streak was 11.
I took second over two others by virtue of the first tie breaker by having more hits (28) over the course of my streak than the two others(thanks Derek Jeter!). Second prize is $250 in credit at the MLB.com merchandice website. The winner 'halfwrench' had a 21-game streak, which means he/she was correct every day this post season. Halfwrench gets 2 tickets to one game of the 2003 World Series.
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| 148 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 58735170
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 17:30
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Congrats...$250 at MLB.com will be fun to spend...
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| 149 | RecycledSpinalFluid
ID: 211013916
Mon, Oct 28, 2002, 21:44
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Congrats JeffG!
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