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Subject: Colorado No Longer the Extreme Offensive park?
Posted by: ChicagoTRS
- Sustainer [2711211812] Wed, May 08, 2002, 11:40
Denver Post reports: "In the 72 April games played in the first seven seasons, there were 44 scores of at least 10 runs, or 61.1 percent of the time. There were only two double-digit scores in the 14 April games played this year, or 14.3 percent. In their first seven Aprils, the Rockies and their opponents combined to average 15.1 runs per game. This April, the average total score at Coors was 9.8 runs - a 35.1 percent decrease."
Why is this happenning? Could it be this: Ball humidor taming scoring?
Another article... Watering down Colorado baseball...
My opinion is we still have a relatively small sample so nothing is conclusive but it is definitely something to watch. The numbers so far this year are astoundingly lower. At least for now something to take into consideration on your fantasy teams when loading up on Colorado hitters or players visiting Colorado. Colorado may no longer be the hitters haven we are used to. |
| 1 | Rick007
Sustainer
ID: 30421313
Wed, May 08, 2002, 11:53
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Could the slow start by the Rockies be the major factor for this decrease?
With Pierre not getting on base, Walker injured, and Helton not hitting, it probably takes out a couples of run per game for the Rockies.
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| 2 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Wed, May 08, 2002, 12:00
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Last year, COL averaged 13.4 total runs/game (Home + Away Teams). This year, I have them at 9.50. The interesting thing about this is that HOU was at 10.4 last year and is at 10.4 this year and every other stadium is within about a run, either direction, of where they were last year.
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| 3 | Ref
ID: 28045169
Wed, May 08, 2002, 12:11
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Homers are down league wide. Can't wait until I start hearing about the baseballs not being as tightly wound and no longer having the juice.
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| 4 | APerfect10
ID: 39143521
Wed, May 08, 2002, 12:15
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Colorado as a team has yet to 'heat up' therefore I dont really think you can make any judgements yet...
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| 5 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Wed, May 08, 2002, 12:31
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AP10, that's hard to say. COL, the team, has always done better at home than away. The entire lineups stats always inflate when they're at Coors, so if the "new ball" they're using is working, then they may never "heat up" like we would expect them to. Something that alludes to this is the fact that last season, the average runs per game for Home and Away teams were 6.8 and 6.6, respectively, but now they're both down to 5.19 and 4.31. In other words, if we were to put full blame on COL, the team, not having "heated up" yet, then one would expect the Away teams' runs/game to be close to what they were last year, unless COL's pitching staff has improved. Given the large change in the numbers, almost 2 runs/game for both Home and Away teams, I think it may be more than just a "cold" COL team and/or an improved pitching staff (which I don't think they have). Granted, it's way too early in the season to say anything definitive, but it could be something to keep an eye on. If these numbers hold up, then one would worry about a pitcher going to Coors about as much as you worry about them going to MIN, KAN, CIN, or MON. That could be a nice thing!
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| 6 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Wed, May 08, 2002, 12:57
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More numbers in support of the "Colorado just sucks" Theory:
In the 16 home games this year Colorado hitters have a 0.821 OPS, with 16 dingers.
In the 16 away games they have a 0.641 OPS (tied with Pittsburg) with just 10 dingers.
This gives you a home/away ratio of 1.281, or 28.1% more offense at home in 2002, as measured by OPS.
The 2001 home/road OPS was 0.941/0.732, giving you 28.5% more offense at home in 2001.
Conclusion: Colorado has just been sucking.
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| 7 | Pistol Pete
ID: 5513189
Wed, May 08, 2002, 14:02
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I think it's time they called up Jack Cust from Colorado Springs.
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| 8 | APerfect10
ID: 39143521
Wed, May 08, 2002, 14:15
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Nice posts guys...
Pistol Pete, I agree with you. Jack has been ripping up the minors, once again this year.
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| 9 | sosa
ID: 16534172
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 06:50
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That Rockies-Yankees series was the Coors Field we're used to seeing wasn't it?
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| 10 | cancermoon
ID: 53248219
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 07:08
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Well that series was far in advance of the normal Coors affect aswell, just something out of the box I think.
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| 11 | sosa
ID: 16534172
Fri, Jun 21, 2002, 15:20
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Decent USAToday.com article on Coors, worth a read.
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| 12 | KrazyKoalaBears
Donor
ID: 266182910
Tue, Oct 01, 2002, 23:34
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Some final numbers to "chew on" Coors Field finished the season with a 12.21 Runs/Gm average. 6.15 for the home team and 6.06 for the visitors. COL ended up with a .451 win%, while scoring 778 runs and giving up 898 runs. Here's where it all gets interesting. Last season, COL finished with an identical .451 win% (they seem to like finishing 73-89) while giving up an almost identical 906 runs. However, they also scored 923 runs last season. Now if we give COL that extra 1.2 runs per game difference between this years 12.21 average and last years 13.4 average, then with 81 home games, that would have given them an extra 97 runs scored, for a total of 875, just 48 runs, or 0.30 runs/game, less than last years 923. So was it the humidor, or just bad offensive play by the Rockies? Or was it both? One year is still too soon to tell, IMO, but the numbers are interesting none the less.
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| 13 | The Left Wings
ID: 486501617
Wed, Oct 02, 2002, 20:44
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I think it's the bad offensive play. They were lucky to finish .451 by scoring so many fewer runs than last season.
I guess they just learnt that blow-outs don't count any more than a win.
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| 14 | biliruben
Sustainer
ID: 3502218
Thu, Oct 03, 2002, 15:27
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There is absolutely no question in my mind that the humidor did absolutely NOTHING!
If you look at all the AB's of the hitters, both on Colorado and those of there opponents, you see an increase in production in 2002 of 22% for those ABs in Colorado (measured by OPS).
If you do the same thing for the previous year, you again see an increase in production in 2001 of 22%.
End of story. The humidor had no affect. Yes ladies and gentlemen, Colorado is still a hitter's park.
The more interesting data is when you split out the Colorado players from the rest of the league. The Home/Away splits are much more extreme for Colorado hitters (35% vs. 9% for 2002, 29% 13% vs. for 2001).
What this says to me (and this is just my interpretation - there are certainly others that could be made) is that if a player plays half his games in Colorado, it makes him a substantially worse hitter every place else than he would have been if he had a different home park.
Why is this? I don't know.
You no longer see huge breaking pitches in half your games, so you can no longer hit them on the road?
You modify your swing to try to hit deep fly balls that are dingers at home but pop-ups at sea-level?
Any other ideas?
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| 15 | sosa
ID: 26923213
Thu, Oct 03, 2002, 16:32
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The average runs per game at Coors Field this year, as noted in post 12, was 12.2 runs/game. The average runs per game for Colorado's road games this year was 8.4 runs/game. So it's a simplistic measurement, but that's a nice 45% boost that Coors field gave in runs/game compared to the average of other parks in the league. My gut instinct is that this is probably very much in line with previous seasons. Regardless, I see no need to be wishy-washy, I'd feel safe in agreeing with biliruben and concluding that Coors is still an extreme offensive park.
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| 16 | sosa
ID: 26923213
Thu, Oct 03, 2002, 16:41
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I went back and looked at that article I referenced in post 11 from USA Today again, and noticed this:
Last year, the Rockies and their opponents
scored 46% more runs per game at Coors than
they did on the road. This year, that figure is at
27% — less extreme, but still one of the
highest in the game.
So last year it was a 46% boost, this year, it was only 27% in June but it appears things "corrected" themselves by the end of the year and it was up to 45%.
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| 17 | cancermoon
ID: 53248219
Thu, Oct 03, 2002, 19:27
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I think the reason they play so badly away from home is all mental, They are almost in the mind zone thinking Coors is doing it for them, so when they travel they don't have the same level of confidence that they really should have. In my opinion confidence is a huge factor in a persons success, it is no coincidence that the majority of top hitters are also relatively highly spoken about themselves. There are exceptions ofcourse.
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| 18 | Dan
Sustainer
ID: 0229323
Fri, Oct 04, 2002, 01:53
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I think another thing that has to be looked at is what the total runs scored across the league is. I'd be interested to see whether or not that number has gone up or down, as I'm pretty sure there has been talk about how that's gone down over the years. As pitching has gotten better there have been less runs scored, so this should be taken as a factor as well with less run production in Coors. I may be completely wrong in this, but I'd be curious to see.
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