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0 Subject: Starting Pitcher Statistics, Pre-AS Break

Posted by: Madman - [44633210] Wed, Jul 12, 15:23
Team BPG BPP BPAvg G Pts Avg PAG PAPts PAAvg RGames RPts RAvg BPFactor AL/NL Tm Road Tm Home
Ana 102 2215 21.7 88 2665 30.3 88 2460 28 74 2910 39.3 -17.6 14 1.6 -16
Ari 92 3710 40.3 88 4760 54.1 88 3275 37.2 84 4325 51.5 -11.2 16 6.5 -4.7
Atl 86 3170 36.9 88 4605 52.3 88 3040 34.5 90 4475 49.7 -12.8 16 4.3 -8.5
Bal 72 2480 34.4 86 2480 28.8 86 3025 35.2 100 3025 30.3 4.1 14 -3.1 1
Bos 78 2835 36.3 84 3585 42.7 84 3080 36.7 90 3830 42.6 -6.3 14 3.1 -3.2
ChC 92 4470 48.6 86 3625 42.2 86 3870 45 80 3025 37.8 10.8 16 2.7 13.5
ChW 80 2505 31.3 87 3855 44.3 87 1780 20.5 94 3130 33.3 -2 14 -15.1 -17.1
Cin 94 3115 33.1 88 2675 30.4 88 3515 39.9 82 3075 37.5 -4.4 16 5.8 1.4
Cle 82 2830 34.5 86 3345 38.9 86 2845 33.1 90 3360 37.3 -2.8 14 -2.1 -4.9
Col 74 95 1.3 85 1810 21.3 85 2820 33.2 96 4535 47.2 -45.9 16 16.6 -29.3
Det 74 2795 37.8 84 2315 27.6 84 4020 47.9 94 3540 37.7 0.1 14 11.3 11.4
Fla 96 4175 43.5 88 3175 36.1 88 4480 50.9 80 3480 43.5 0 16 14.4 14.4
Hou 86 3170 36.9 87 2440 28 87 3435 39.5 88 2705 30.7 6.2 16 -0.1 6.1
Kan 84 2080 24.8 85 1605 18.9 85 3430 40.4 86 2955 34.4 -9.6 14 8.6 -1
Los 76 3530 46.4 86 3710 43.1 86 3410 39.7 96 3590 37.4 9 16 -0.9 8.1
Mil 94 3820 40.6 89 2405 27 89 4645 52.2 84 3230 38.5 2.1 16 14.6 16.7
Min 84 2480 29.5 90 2290 25.4 90 3790 42.1 96 3600 37.5 -8 14 9.3 1.3
Mon 96 3755 39.1 84 3035 36.1 84 3155 37.6 72 2435 33.8 5.3 16 -2 3.3
NYM 92 3960 43 86 4175 48.5 86 3140 36.5 80 3355 41.9 1.1 16 -0.6 0.5
NYY 74 2700 36.5 83 3075 37 83 3340 40.2 92 3715 40.4 -3.9 14 5.5 1.6
Oak 88 2990 34 86 3130 36.4 86 2105 24.5 84 2245 26.7 7.3 14 -15.8 -8.5
Phi 90 4515 50.2 86 3925 45.6 86 4215 49 82 3625 44.2 6 16 9.3 15.3
Pit 92 4105 44.6 86 3200 37.2 86 4460 51.9 80 3555 44.4 0.2 16 15.2 15.4
Sdg 82 3925 47.9 87 2995 34.4 87 3595 41.3 92 2665 29 18.9 16 -4.1 14.8
Sea 86 3920 45.6 86 4255 49.5 86 1395 16.2 86 1730 20.1 25.5 14 -33.1 -7.6
Sfo 84 3670 43.7 85 3225 37.9 85 1830 21.5 86 1385 16.1 27.6 16 -28.6 -1
StL 96 3725 38.8 87 4765 54.8 87 1895 21.8 78 2935 37.6 1.2 16 -15.4 -14.2
Tam 86 2700 31.4 85 1375 16.2 85 4000 47.1 84 2675 31.8 -0.4 14 10.7 10.3
Tex 98 2800 28.6 85 3000 35.3 85 2365 27.8 72 2565 35.6 -7 14 -4.7 -11.7
Tor 80 2370 29.6 89 3110 34.9 89 2195 24.7 98 2935 29.9 -0.3 14 -11.7 -12


In the above table, you will find a wealth of information as it applies to how starting pitchers for and against various teams have performed this season, all measured in SWP's.

The column categories are:
*BPG, BPP, BAvg = Ball Park Games, Points and Average, respectively -- the totals of the starting pitchers of both the home and away teams.
*G,Pts,Avg = Team Games, Points, Average -- how well each team's starting pitchers have performed.
*PAG, PAPts, PAAvg = Points Against Totals, Games, Points, Average -- this reflects how the opposition of a certain club has fared this season.
*RGames, RPts, Ravg = Road Games, Points, and Average -- this reflects how well the specified team has competed on the road. These totals INCLUDE the opposition.

BPFactor = Ball Park Factor -- a number in terms of SWPoints that I think reflects the adjustment that should be made to the expectation for the starting pitcher, based on the location of the ball park. This stastistic is simply BPAvg - RAvg.

AL/NL -- nonsense for you, I used it in some formulas and found it difficult to remove it from the table.

Tm Road and Tm Home -- this is a simple set of predictions that should also be applied to the opposing pitchers. The Home prediction already includes the Ball Park factor.

Example:
To calculate the expected point total for Maddux's game on Thursday (IF he pitches), I would suggest the following procedure:

Maddux's average SWP/G (78.7) + Bal's Road Factor (-3.1) + Ball Park Factor (-12.8) = 62.8.

For Mussina (his hypothetical opponent), it is a bit simpler:
Mussina's average (65.8) + Atl's Home Factor (-8.5) = 57.3 expectation.

I realize this is simplistic, but I think it is a start. Comments appreciated.
1 Mark L
      ID: 4444938
      Wed, Jul 12, 15:28 		Madman, this is a thing o'beauty, typical for you. Thanks, and wish you were among those beating on me this year.
2walk
      ID: 104739
      Wed, Jul 12, 15:43 		Jayzus Madman. You have outdone yerself. I am beyond making suggestions as I am still trying to absorb. thx,

- walk
3biliruben
      ID: 5849314
      Wed, Jul 12, 15:47 		Wow! Look at Seattle and SF's BallPark Factor!
4Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Wed, Jul 12, 15:59 		biliruben --
Some of those things get pretty striking, don't they? I thought of this table when I was going through some of the archived SW messages last night, and their "expert" proclaimed that he thought the early reports out of SF were that it was a hitter's park.

Notice, however, that part of each of their huge BPF's comes because their hitters have clobbered the ball on the road (as has their opposition) -- dropping the starters in those games to averages of 20 and 16 points, respectively, for games in which SEA and SF played.

As much as games AT a given ballpark, what I've done above relies also on how well those teams and their opposition performs on the road. . .

But it is amazing. It's been that way virtually all season. In addition, even as extreme as those ball parks are, they have only roughly 60% of the effect of Coors (which is exacerbated in the other direction because of the fact that their hitters simply haven't been doing squat on the road).
5addison
      ID: 59537286
      Wed, Jul 12, 16:00 		after i read this, i had to change to my undies!

madman for gurupie of the year!
6biliruben
      ID: 5849314
      Wed, Jul 12, 16:23 		Madman - wonder if some of SF's Factor could then have to do with them playing colorado so much already. The 7 games in Coors SF just tore the ball up.

Also,and in line with the reverse affect I brought up in another thread, the Colorado hitters were just horrendous going to pac-bell.

Probably still an effect, but it may that this exaggerates the true affect a bit.
7Gman15
      ID: 1691011
      Wed, Jul 12, 17:16 		My only comment is WOW! I read your writing on stats and realize just how little I know. This type of information, which is probably very elementary to you, is extremely valuable to us. Thank you for putting this together and sharing with us. We aren't worthy! We aren't worthy! (bowing and scraping).
8jedman
      ID: 55456319
      Wed, Jul 12, 20:19 		Madman, Was your example of Maddux and Mussina assuming the game was in Atlanta? I am confused on applying the BP Factor and Home/Road factors, given that the game is in Baltimore, or am I just dense and not understanding the use of those factors?
9Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Wed, Jul 12, 20:27 		Nope. I had it backward. I thought it was in Hot-Lanta.

Given that it is in Baltimore:

Maddux = 78.7 + 1 (BAL at home) = 79.7 and
Mussina = 65.8 + 4.3 (ATL Road) + 4.1 (BAL BP) = 74.2

This makes both of them more attractive.
10jedman
      ID: 55456319
      Wed, Jul 12, 20:32 		Thanks, at least I know I'm not going crazy. Thanks for all the hard work and fantastic numbers. My guru jr. even if you don't get the vote this week.
11Ender
      ID: 13443221
      Wed, Jul 12, 22:16 		It will be interesting to watch the actual point production over the next several days and see how it compares to the predicted data. As is typical I am sure an isolated game may not be dead on, but I am curious to see if it is accurate on the average over a span of games, 3 for instance.

If it holds up I could see choosing a pitcher based on who/where he plays the next 3 games (or some other somewhat arbitrary number for which it may hold on the average). Although I suspect it would be hard to find a pitcher with more than 3 or 4 favorable starts in a row.
12azdbacker
      ID: 106281117
      Sat, Jul 15, 23:32 		Butt, nice work Madman.
13Species
      ID: 3149311
      Sun, Jul 16, 00:46 		Fantastic info, Madman. I'm surprised Yankee Stadium surpresses SWP - but that's probably due to the Yankees' crappy staff!

The Giants' staff just owns Pac Bell (today notwithstanding), but that difference is just HUGE.....
14Reds
      ID: 29655220
      Sun, Jul 16, 00:59 		Hey guy,
Anyone know where the table about the schedule is. The one concerning the trends of the teams schedule if the next half would be harder or easier for the hitting and pitching. I'm not sure if it was from here but I don't know any other place where I could have read that.
Thanks,
Reds
15Razor
      ID: 18650614
      Sun, Jul 16, 01:50 		Ridiculous, Madman. The amount of info there is, uh, MADdening to say the least. Great work.
16Punishark
      ID: 27420411
      Tue, Jul 18, 09:29 		BUTT. This is too useful to let fall off the board.
17VIDevilRays
      ID: 0502611
      Tue, Jul 18, 09:43 		I agree. Excellent work!
18Madman, guru jr
      ID: 44633210
      Tue, Jul 18, 21:43 		I am surprised no one has commented on HomeRon Field. Did you notice that they are a pitcher's park according to this chart?
19 Mike D
      ID: 1417106
      Wed, Jul 19, 06:38 		Madman, guru jr, no I hadn't noticed that. Without researching, I know there have been opposing pitchers that have done well at Enron, but the Astros pitchers seem to have had trouble. Not just Lima, either.

The other thing I've noticed is the huge difference in wind and therefore Homeruns when the roof is close v. open. Man, it is incredible. Maybe our local source Gangman has info on this.
20Gangman
      ID: 26571622
      Wed, Jul 19, 08:20 		Madman....outstanding work. I'm amazed at
what you come up with...

As for Enron Field, I have no "scientific"
evicence as to how the ball carries roof open
vs shut. But as soon as they open that sucker,
the flags seem to fly hard straight out to left
field (315 ft.). I guess that H-town's heavy air
makes em fly further as well (debunking the
thin air myth).

It is a surprise that Enron is a "pitchers park".
Astro pitching has been just awful no matter
where they play this year. I think that the Enron
effect has been magnified by that fact as well
as the huge difference between the Dome and
the current digs. The Dome was the hardest
place to hit a dinger in all of baseball and now
we have an AL style bandbox.

All that being said, Enron is a great place to
see a game, and has really made going to the
ballyard fun again. The Dome sucked for
baseball and Enron is so cool that I don't
really care how bad the Stro's are....real
baseball is here and I'm glad of it.
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