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Subject: What is a trade worth to you right now?
Posted by: The Pink Pimp
- [91127165] Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 13:46
The recent Prior and Runny threads have touched on this issue without getting into it in depth. Many managers were reluctant to use a trade just to save money. Others were more than happy to use a trade to preserve roster value gains.
So let's get to the question which truly is at the heart of the matter here,
At this point in the season, what is a trade worth to you in terms of $TSN ?
I believe this is the core issue of the Runny trade and to a lesser extent the Prior trade. Its a dollar conservation move pure and simple. Even trading out of Runny into a pitcher who goes nowhere in value might have ended up saving you $1,000. Assuming that you like Runny and that you trade back into Runny later(using two trades - one out & one in) that would make each trade worth $500 ($1,000 / 2 trades.)
But an extra $500 per trade in April is not the same as an extra $500 per trade in July. At this point in the season +$500 from a trade looks good to me because I know I'm going to have several months to put that $500 to work on my roster. Later in the year, +$500 won't even make me look twice, for as the season progresses there will be less and less time to put any roster value gains to work (since the remaining length of the season is shorter compared to today.)
In short, an extra $500 in roster value that I can use over 140 games means much more to me than an extra $500 that I can only use in 70 games. So while right now a trade might be worth $500 to me that won't always be the case.
And there is something else for trade coservationists to consider. Because an increase in roster value is most valuable at the beginning of the season, the argument can be made that trades themselves are most valuable early in the season. And if you agree with that, then it follows that the net value of a trade will actually decline as the season progresses. So why wouldn't you want to use trades when they are at their highest value?
Sometimes you have to use trades for reasons other than dollar gains, say when Helton returns to Coors for a long homestand, or when an injury occurs, but those times are fairly evenly distributed throughout the season. However, the utility of roster value gains is not even throughout the season and that is why at this point in time trades are primarily about increasing or retaining roster value.
Which brings us back to the question,
At this point in the season, what is a trade worth to you in terms of $TSN ?
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| 1 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 91127165
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 13:48
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My personal answer is $500.
If I get 6 new trades a week, and I use them all, and can average a $500 gain from each of them, then my roster value goes up $3,000 per week.
That would make me happy.
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| 2 | Beetski
ID: 206282522
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:12
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This always comes up, Ill just refesh the idea, instead of buying trades with actual money, ho much would u pay for a trade in TSN $ ?? tsn has no reason to do this because it doesnt generate any revenue for them, but its always fun to discuss
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| 3 | dgrooves
ID: 90203117
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:19
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"Because an increase in roster value is most valuable at the beginning of the season, the argument can be made that trades themselves are most valuable early in the season. And if you agree with that, then it follows that the net value of a trade will actually decline as the season progresses."
I agree with this in part. If you are looking at the value of a trade only from a monetary perspective, then yes, it could be said that the value of a trade decreases as the season progresses. However, I think we will all agree that trades become more valuable from a points perspective as the season progresses. Its been said on these boards (I dont have the stats to back this up) that the better pitchers post higher scores later in the season. Also, a higher franchise value, which one will have later in the season, will allow "better" players to be bought, resulting in more points. For example, one can buy, say, Helton, Soriano, and A-Rod along with some stud pitchers later in the season, while that same person couldnt have all those studs now.
Enough rambling...I see trades more valuable from a money perspective now and more valuable from a points perspective later.
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| 4 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 91127165
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:19
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Beetski moves in for the early attempt at threadjacking :-)
You are correct that my question always comes up. There is nothing groundbreaking or new in this thread but the topic is timely as each year there are new people here and they have not yet seen the issue examined in this way.
After all of the disagreement on how much a trade was worth on the recent Prior and Runny threads, I felt it was worthwhile to review the topic of trade value with a new thread.
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| 5 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 91127165
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:43
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dgrooves,
I think the "value" of a trade has three main components.
#1: Potential to Increase points.
#2: Potential to Avoid point/dollar losses from injury.
#3: Potential to Increase roster value.
To me #1 stays the same throughout the season. As far as points go, the value of 100 points at the beginning of the season is the same as the value of 100 points at the end of the season. One way of increasing points is to exploit matchups and I think these opportunities present themselves in a fairly even distribution through the season which is why I think the value of this trade component remain fairly stable. In the case of an upgrade to a stud, its not just the trade that brings you the added value, you usually have to use up some of your unused franchise vale as well. So using a trade to upgrade is a slightly different animal.
#2 also stays relatively the same as you'll always need an injury cushion trade or two to prevent dollar and point losses if one of your players will be out for a significant amount of games.
#3 is tricky because on the surface it seems like its value is unchanged throughout the season as well, I.E. $500 now equals $500 in July. But that is not the case. $500 now is worth more than $500 in July . In fact its the cash gains that will enable managers to upgrade into point producing studs.
So if #1(points) and #2(injury) stay the same in value throughout the season, and #3(money) is highest at the start of the season, then trades are in fact worth more now than in a few months.
But you still didn't answer the question :-)
At this point in the season, what is a trade worth to you in terms of $TSN ?
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| 6 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:55
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For hitters, I think my trading pattern acurately reflects my opinion on the value of a trade throughout the season. The difference between trades early vs. late is hard to measure in a value proposition, because the motivations are different at different points in the season...
Right now, my main motivation is dollars.. If I see a sure fire $500K, I'm jumping on it. This pattern will hold through at least mid May.
My next motivation is points + Roster Value, where, I will not automatically trade into a guy going up, but I will absolutely trade out of guy on the way down. My trade at that point will be into the most affordable and productive option... Hopefully dollars will follow this approach and they generally do.
Finally, Say early to mid August... I'm trading purely for point producers. I will still trade out of a guy who is going to fall in price, but I'm less motivated by that than point potential.
Pitchers bring many other aspects into their value. Early it is still about the money, but later it becomes more complicated as you try to efficiently use your trades to maximize starts.. By Maximizing starts you are not always maximizing dollar gains, especially now with the 5 day avg. on price changes....
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| 7 | penngray
Donor
ID: 423241723
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:58
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I dont know if I can answer that. I have been asking myself a similar question.
is a trade and a 100 pts worth $1 mil RV swing?
I say yes it is and no it isnt......depending on your Trade situation ;)
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| 8 | rfs better than R9
ID: 22171417
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:06
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Trade value to TSN = $1.00 (basic game only)
Trade value to me = not much based on the way I throw them away ;(
Seriously, I think Pink Pimp is pretty close to being on the mark. But, in reality, Id say 1/3 million is a more likely outcome. Just because you execute a trade witha $50K goal (over an dover) doesn't mean that you can get out of them all at the proper time(s). Figuring a few trades will stick you, thus reducing the net effect of your trades.
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| 9 | Matt G
ID: 43047610
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:19
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Hard for me to say...
If I go Runny - > Loaiza
Runny Loses $250K and Loaiza gains $250K
I say that is worth a trade, but I'm also looking at, Runny gets 125 pts and Loaiza gets like -15...Not worth the trade, even with the gains. its hard to evalute a trade without seeing the outcome. The results justifies the means, and HindSight is 20/20
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| 10 | Bandos
ID: 422571916
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:20
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One more piece seems to be a points calculation. Last year 33,000 was in the top 100 I think. Thus 100 points is worth X, while the roster gain to get to the goal of whatever your goal is (mine is 85 million :) ) etc. My brain can't handle the math right now.
OT, a bit. Just picked this gem off the TSN Board.
"Right now I'm trying to Gain as high a rank as I can in the world, while building my RV as much as I can along the way."
and I thought I was the master of the obvious.
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| 11 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:30
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I wonder what he's planning on doing later.
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| 12 | beastiemiked
Sustainer
ID: 3531815
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:38
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The sad part is these geniuses are beating most of us. We'll all climb up to the top eventually but it seems we're always slow starters.
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| 13 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:38
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PP, I agree 100 TSNP now = 100 TSNP later, but I think the point dgrooves was trying to make was that there will be more opportunities later to pick up a 100 TSNP start. Pitching is pretty much a crap shoot right now as evidenced by some of the major blowups. Later when we know more of the trends we can play the matchups better. Zito and Hudson vs the Tigers looked like points in the bank, but that didn't work out. We'll have more data to go on later and can better use those trades then. I'm inclined to agree with him. I'd rather have many PT's later to rotate through more known quantities than take the starts I've been getting so far. Now if I can just muster the patience to bank some PT's I'll be even better off.
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| 14 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:40
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I hear you, bmd. I am off to a slower than normal start, but I keep telling myself to be patient. Vazquez helped me out quite a bit last night. I cut most of my ranks by 1/3 on his start alone. Scanning my divisions I am $3 mill plus ahead of almost everyone so it's a matter of time, but boy is it discouraging looking at 4 digit wwr's :P
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| 15 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:50
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You don't necessarily need to separate the issues of points vs. $. Dollars are only important as a means to generate more points. This conversion is at the core of some comments above, but not directly spelled out.
Assume that you can pick up an extra 2 TSNP/G for each extra $1 million. This has been a reasonable rule of thumb over the years, although it depends on many factors. With about 140 games remaining in the season, an extra $1 million might be expected to generate an extra 280 TSNP over the rest of the season.
Pitcher trades are simpler to evaluate than hitter trades, because you can convert pitcher trades directly into more points. Assuming a reasonably efficient rotation strategy, let's assume you can get an extra 0.75 starts per rotation trade. If you can achieve an average TSNP/start of 80 TSNP - which is a pretty aggressive target, over the long haul - then a rotational pitching trade generates only about 60 TSNP.
Early in the year, you can benefit from both aspects of a trade, getting both points for efficient rotations, while also generating dollars. At the end of the year, about all you can get is the rotation benefit. Thus, one could argue that a pitching trade at the end of the season is actually worth less than one at the beginning, assuming you are getting good points and gains from the early trades.
The flip side of the timing argument is that in the latter part of the season you are better able to afford top quality players. Presumably, maneuvering among studs is more lucrative than swapping in and out of cheaper players.
There is also a potential point of diminishing returns. Last year, it seemed that there was a need for cheaper players throughout the season. Thus, gains could almost always be efficiently deployed. But this year, it seems that players have been priced moderately cheaper. If so, it may be that wealthier teams will not continually be able to efficiently use the last layers of wealth. There have been years past when this was definitely the case. It's too early to know whether this year will develop that way or not.
But, if a pitching trade can be expected to produce 60 TSNP later in the year, then the dollar equivalent today of that 60 TSNP is only about $250K. That $250K, if it buys an extra 2 TSNP/$mil, ultimately generates about 70 TSNP. By the end of May, a gain of $300K will be needed to convert to 60 TSNP.
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| 16 | Ref
Donor
ID: 100261311
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 15:55
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Guru, the point that scares me the most is having a super high Franchise Value and being unable to use it because the ideal players to have are cheaper. If that happens all the people that have traded for money has undoubtedly used unnecessary trades simply to get out of losers rather than go for the points. This happened a few years ago to me in SW football (the Warner breakout year) and I've never forgotten it.
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| 17 | R9 - Belly Colon
ID: 5530259
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:17
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So far, the top TSNP leaders for all hitter positions are the expensive guys, and I don't see that changing.
C - Irod
1B - Helton
2B - Soriano
3B - Pujols (when he gets back)
SS - Rodriguez
OF - Bonds
OF - Guerrero
OF - Sosa
DH - Ramirez (Open to debate I guess)
This hitters lineup would cost me 60.29 million.
On to pitchers. Its debatable who to pick here, but I'm going to assume for now that by July/August at least two of Pedro, Randy and Schilling will be top choices again. So...
Randy
Pedro
Smoltz
Prior
? (lets say Zito for now?)
Those 5 would cost me 36.83 million. Combined thats 97.12 million, and we're not even holding 3HM. The average gurupie team last year finished around 80-85 mil, with the top team at 98 mil. Will there be cheapies worth having? Always. But I don't think we'll get to the point where money is being wasted.
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| 18 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:28
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You could do better with that pitching staff if you only used 1 expensive slot and rotated through RJ/Schill/Pedro. You would need to bank trades of course and even then you couldn't rotate 100% of the time. I guess I'm saying there will be stretches where you wouldn't need all that dough. You could even pull it off for less than $90 mill if you didn't insist on catching every 3HM start.
That being said, I agree. I don't see any $$$ being wasted this season, but we shall see. There is almost always at least one bargain pitcher and one bargain hitter that produce up there with the more expensive players.
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| 19 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 17152614
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:43
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I agree with Rogue and Ender in that there probably won't be unused cash at the end for the top RV teams...although with some lower prices, it might be closer, and that's already a knock.
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| 20 | El Tel
ID: 56423193
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:24
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My mantra:
Points win prizes.
Larssen will be back and hot.(ie good cheap hitters will always be available)
This game is about aiming at 100 per starting pitcher trade(PP is a money expert and obseesed by it
and that as a Belly mate for the last 3 years is how I remember him-inadequate correlation between highest RV and end position.)
Respect to high RV, and the options it creates ,but good luck with your pitcher picks.
As you may notice I think this year's pool of Ultimate experts is too money_oriented and the game has changed but totally within the rules,which as the players,individually v. the collective, we endeavour to manipulate to our relative advantage.Oh well I've got a team in Swirve(but without bonus points;-( ) Prediction:the game will not be won by the highest
RV.So let's talk baseball, rather than this apology for a stock market.
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| 21 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 29463114
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:58
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Queery? For last TSN Ultimate season, what was the lowest roster value at season's end of the managers whose "end position" was top 100?
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| 22 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:00
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That is one of the best typos I have seen in awhile :)
Sorry, I don't have the answer to your query, but thanks for the chuckle.
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| 23 | blade
ID: 493372517
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:11
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i think it was Elton John's team ;)
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| 24 | slick
ID: 343132519
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:13
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lol blade
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| 25 | cancermoon
ID: 573392510
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:48
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Well the value of a trade depends on how rare the trade is, just like gems. If a guy has just one trade left, then the trade is probably worth far more than 500k, if he has 4-5 trades left then it is worth no money at all, just use the damn thing, but maybe could be worth about 65 points at any stage. So I guess since even in a guru rotation a pitching trade is worth about 65 points, does 500k =65 points? I think yes for sure, prior is 5 mil and Johnson is 9.5 mil, so will Johnson score 600 more points over the season than Prior? If someone earns 500k more than me with their spare trade and they can buy Biddle as a closer and I can just buy Carter, will I worry? what about me being stuck with Soriano instead of Guerrero. I am presently 3 mil behind some of you guys on RV, but I can't see how it will let you's score 600 more points which you need to catch me, more likely you will gain that with better matchups, not roster value.
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| 26 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 1316217
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 22:52
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Blade>>>I think your version might be "queenery".
But question of lowest roster value for last year Ultimate top 100 teams remains unanswered. Does the Guru keep this info? He seems to have everything else;>)
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| 27 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 22:59
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Right in plain sight: Final top 100 teams - 2002 Ultimate Baseball
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| 28 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 1316217
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 23:45
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Thanks Dave. A very Quick and more logical than scientific review indicates a general drop in roster value as you go from 1 down to 100 with several (but very few) notable exceptions. I was hoping a corelation between roster value , points and trades would jump out at me when looking at the list, but only the obvious is there for me.
Although quite base in approach, it seems fair to conclude that roster value is worth (in points) more than not having roster value. Average of top 10 teams is $86.62 & 32,580 points and avg of last ten teams in top 100 is $82.17 & 31,046 points or a difference of difference of $4.448 & 1534. There were 8 unused trades in each sample. Thus each sample used the same amount of trades. The extra roster value averages to 344 points per million more in roster value. With 27 (?) weeks in a season, that is 12 points per extra million per week. Each week has 6 trades, so that gets you back to the aforementioned 2 points per week.
This may not answer the question of how valuable a trade is, but underlines the ultimate importance of roster value. (1 team in top 100 with less than $70 million roster value).
You don't have to have to do a 4.3 in the 40 to play corner in the NFL, but it doesn't hurt your chances either. Having the highest roster value does not guarantee finishing first, but it certainly enhances your chance to not finish last.
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| 29 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 23:49
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"with several (but very few)"
Still scratching my head on that part :)
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| 30 | cancermoon
ID: 573392510
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 23:53
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Taxman i think it is a given though that the better players will have gone up in price, even if not as trains, so ofcourse the guys who end up with the highest scores, also would probably have held the highest scoring players for a longer period of time. Whether it be ARod or a 2 mil cheap player whom was playing well. It seems from that top 100 list that there is an optimum amount of money needed to be able to manage efficiently, as the guys with super high roster values didn't do so well, and the guys with bad roster values didn't either. There is a middle ground there I'd say between 80-90 million is where a person wants to be, although Ira told us that ages ago.
anyway I am curious about all the guys that sold Prior, was it worth it to save that money and lose his points today? and since his price will surely rocket back up, will it be worth 2 trades out and into him plus those points? Just curious how you guys view this.
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| 31 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:00
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It was a gamble. I used the opportunity to rotate in his slot and came up near empty with Prior > Hudson > Zito > Worrell. If I had gone 1 further to Mulder I would have felt a whole lot better, but hey what are you gonna do?
Hind sight is 20/20 and you can say the 115 TSNP would be worth the $$$ losses, but that's waaaay to easy to do knowing that he scored 115. I don't think it was a no-brainer either way. It was a gamble plain and simple. I like the money I saved by avoiding the losses and the money I made on my new pickups. Worth it in hindsight, perhaps not, but that's the risk I took.
I will be going back to him, but I will pick my opportunity to maximize gains. With the MacDougal train dying, that may be the move I make.
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| 32 | smartone
Donor
ID: 191119269
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:31
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The Prior --> Worrell (ghost) hasn't been too bad afterall. I made the trade on 4/20, and since:
Worrell: +380, 46 TSNPs
Prior: -340, 105 TSNPs
so I wasted a trade and lost 59 points to gain $720K, and it is most likely that this figure will increase in the coming days to the $850-900K mark (and maybe Worrell will even score a few more points)
well, Prior is a MUST have for his next start, so my total cost would eventually be 2 trades (from Worrell or someone else)
worth it? emmm.... tough call... not sure
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| 33 | Taxman
Leader
ID: 1316217
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:35
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Agreed Ender (however I didn't mean to confuse your logic with my parenthetical comments) I went Hudson, Zito then Mussina. I have burned 3 trades, picked up comparable points with the Hudson/Zito starts with Mussina @ 140 these 3 starts average @ 85/start.
I ducked the 380 drop suffered to date by Prior holders (there may well be another 50 in losses before his price bottoms) and picked up 360 on the burned trades for a net value of 740 (just under $250/trade). So yeah. I think it was worth it.
If you held Prior, to come out ahead of me, you need to beat my 85/start when you burn your 3 saved trades and do so with @$.75 million less.
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| 34 | Dr. Doom
ID: 16142182
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:41
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Prior : -370, 105
Mussina : +380K, 139
Works for me.
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| 35 | smartone
Donor
ID: 191119269
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:56
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nice call, Dr.Doom, I saw most of tonite's game and Muss looked GREAT, especially in the final innings where he was unhittable
By the way, I just thought that maybe some managers will sell Prior tomorrow, noticing that they keep losing ~$100K/day and thinking that there's another Elvis-case here ...
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| 36 | swift
ID: 203372523
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 01:37
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Re #32
you have to watch your terminology. yes it's true you have 720K more than what you would have had if you kept Prior but you actually only "gained" 380K in Roster Value
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| 37 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 11:15
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An interesting call today on the value of a trade... I have Zito who pitches tomorrow against the WhiteSox and no Chacon.... Today Zito will lose money, my guess 70k and tomorrow, he may lose more.. In the mean time Chacon will rise 120 per day for a two day net of some 300+ in RV change... To make the trade would be to miss Zito's start tomorrow...
Thoughts from the gallery.. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger for the extra RV as Zito throws slightly below avg against the Sox and his next start will be the Yanks....
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| 38 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 11:54
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I stuck to my early strategy of trading for obvious dollars... I went Zito -> Chacon...... I may regret it, if Zito scores big tomorrow, but right now, I'm dollar focused, so I pulled the trigger.... In another week or two, I probably would have waited until after Zito's start to make any decision....
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| 39 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 12:03
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I probably would've waited for the Zito start, but you really don't lose either way. The pts or the money, both are good to have. Also, the money is garanteed, whereas if Zito gets shelled you'd be pretty annoyed at the missed gains.
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| 40 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 12:06
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Zito -100K, Chacon +130K... already a swing of 230K. Worth the trade.
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| 41 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 12:10
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Was just going to post the numbers too... I'm definitely glad that I pulled the trigger.. Zito will likely lose money tomorrow too and Chacon will go up big again, so this might end up being a $400k trade... even if I Zito puts up 120, it should be worth it in the long run....
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| 42 | Ref
Donor
ID: 100261311
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 12:45
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What if zito gets 160 pts and chacon goes -100 pts.? Wait until after they pitch to see if you're glad you made the move ;)
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| 43 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 13:11
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Ref, that's the point of the debate of the trade value... Right now, I'm going for money, money and money. In a few weeks, my focus will change and i'll be trading for points and money... so in a few weeks given the same set of circumstances, i'd wait until after Zito pitches to make the move..... In fact, as far as pitchers are concerned, that could very well be my last skipped start for the season... If Zito goes off, will I be a bit disappointed, yes... But If my net gain is +$400k (and it's already +230) than I'll still think it was a valid use of a trade... If Zito gets shelled. i was just lucky, that's the only way I can look at that...
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| 44 | Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 40211014
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 13:36
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Oh my God! i have violated one of the sacred rules of fantasy baseball. NO ROCKIES PITCHERS, what have i done, oh lord of mercy!!!
I hope the church is open tonight!
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| 45 | cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 21:31
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Bookie I personally don't think money is as important as you are making it, if you want an extra 400k then just make an extra trade into a price mover in July, In the basic game I had two teams to choose from because i decided to have a go at buying trades and see how i go. Basically one team had 350 more points and the other team had 2 mil more money, I took the team with 350 extra points to continue playing with. After days of study i really couldn't see where the 2 mil was going to make a huge difference aslong as i trade wisely and choose good matchups. Then again extra money isn't as important in Basic as you don't need decent pitchers to hold long term, you buy em and dump em daily.
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| 46 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 21:52
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Cancermoon, the money translates to points and the sooner you have the money, the sooner you can use it and therefore gain points... Above the correlation was made that $1million dollars in RV translates to approximately 2 TSNP/game... Given that the average team has played 24 games, there would be 138 games remaining... given that and the fact that I should net about $450k from this transaction (over the next two days) I should be able to recoup 124 points from my extra dollars over the season... So will Zito score 124 in tomorrow's game.. He could... But personally at this point in the season, I'll take my chances with the extra dollars that I'll have to spend for the remainder of the season....
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| 47 | cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 22:41
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Bookie that whole calculation goes out the window when Johnson gets -95 or pedro gets -65 etc etc, then having 1 million extra loses you points. At this time in Basic Soriano will be worth more than ARod tomorrow, and by the end of the week he will be about 400k more. On your theory then you can buy Soriano with your extra 400k and I can just make do with ARod. I can't concieve how that is a good deal with an extra 400k.
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| 48 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 22:57
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You're taking this example as a one time thing. If you want to look at two players whose value is 400K different than you are correct that you can surely find someone who will score as many points over any given time for 400 less..
My position is that on average you 1 TSNP/game better off for each 500k in RV.
I'll tell you what... There are 5 pitchers and 9 hitters on all teams.. I'll fill a roster with a set of players and then you take each position and subtract 400K from what I paid and fill the position with the best player you can find... Who do you think will win at years end?
That's the beauty of this game format, there are many ways to play it, the bottem line is points wins in the end, but it has been proven year over year that teams with higher RV on average have better finishes than those with lesser RV's.. I'll take the money and run.. My current RV is 63.26 million and climbing.
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| 49 | cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 23:45
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Just out of interest bookie, can i ask what your tsnp is on your 63 mil team?? I would be genuinely interested to see how many points you may need to make up with your extra 5 mil you have than me.
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| 50 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 59346179
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 23:49
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280 TSNP x 5 equals 1,150 TSNP
So if you are not more than 1,150 TSNP's ahead then
he still has a shot.
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| 51 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:33
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As of this morning, I have 3798 points and am ranked 4386....
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| 52 | cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 20:13
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I have 4655 ranked 142 with only 58,300 cash. If you indeed do make up all that ground with roster value, it will be something i certainly will try next season, or maybe for a while in the midseason game. Thanks for sharing your position with me.
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| 53 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 01:51
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I've been using this money making strategy for years and have consistently finished no worse than about 200 and that was back when it was free and there were 100,000's of managers...
Hockey is a completely different game, but about a month and half into the hockey season, I was actually worse off WWR rank wise than I am here, at least in terms of percintiles.. the number wasn't as high, but there weren't as many managers either. I ended up finishing 37th overall...
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| 54 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 01:53
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Oh another thing to consider when determining how far I must go to catch up is trades remaining, particularly the pitcher trades... I currently have 1 HT and 7 PT's...
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| 55 | cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 04:31
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I just have 2 PT's so i guess that means you should catch me even easier with your roster value. It will be interesting, although I do understand that the main factor could be luck in the pitching selections. I am up to 59th rank now, a good day, i will put my team in the gurupie rankings so i can easier check how I am doing money wise and trade wise.
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| 56 | Mr_Clean
ID: 243392323
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 04:56
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Hey, I'm new to this board.. I just could use some advice regarding this topic..
Ok I have a pitcher who is currently losing money around -50k per day, and I want to trade him for another pitcher who just started yesterday and I believe will increase progressively over the next few days I.E. maybe +50k, +60K , +70k, etc.
So here is my question. The guy I have now who is losing money Is scheduled to pitch on Friday. So My question is whether it's worth it to wait untill He puts up his start or Trade now? If I wait I will lose a net value of maybe 200-300K. But If I Wait I can get the extra tsnp which could be 100+ points if I'm lucky. What Should I do?
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| 57 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 07:42
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If that's all he's losing I would probably hold. It's hard to say thought without knowing the actual names of the pitchers.
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| 58 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 09:43
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If you're talking about Mark Prior, hold.
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| 59 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 12:52
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Mr Clean, a few others on the board have been in that boat. One took the money, another took the points. Its a tough call, and really depends on your team. Whats your WWR and money at? If you need the money, I guess make the trade. However, I would never trade 100+ TSNP for 200K, so the money definitely needs to be there.
Who's the pitcher? Is it a good pitcher and a good matchup?
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| 60 | Matt G
ID: 43047610
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 12:57
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MR Clean
It's Wednesday, if you go from Pitcher A to Pitcher B now, you get the money from Pitcher B and you get his points 2 days later, but to save yourself hold him for two starts. I think It's worth it if you think Pitcher B is going to score the same as A its only 2 days and tons of cash difference
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| 61 | bookie
ID: 1859247
Wed, Apr 30, 2003, 15:53
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My trade netted me $400K in value, but cost me 102 TSNP.... It was a gamble.. the money was a sure thing, the points could have gone either way...
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