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Subject: MORA (Next train)
Posted by: On the 85th year
- [10344614] Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 19:03
I was lucky to pick him up yesterday, last moght I regretted the move but today....50 tsnp by the 2nd inning,,, IMHO, but with the favorable sched and balti injuries, he could be a nice pick up..steals, power. choo-choo? |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 46 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 59346179
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 23:42
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On the 85th year ,
I know its not personal just as I'm sure you know my
response wasn't either. Next time our teams face each
other I'm sure there won't be any beanballs. And I
imagine the next time you post a heads up thread you'll
probably do so in a slightly different fashion then this
one. I have to admit I did consider Mora (after being
alerted to him by this thread) for a team where I have
Clayton at SS but decided that I didn't have the trades
to pull it off.
Wiggs,
On the otherhand we may still be throwing beanballs...
I'm not sure what to make of this sentence "all in all I
guess i dont like when i do alot of research on things
and find what i think is a steal of a player, like i did with
runny, and then have a random thread force me into
trading him or taking a major money hit. " It seems like
you still think that my Runny thread was the "random"
event that triggered the sell off.
Now if I had been spamming the boards with false info
about an injury or posting on TSN's message board as
well then you might have a point.
In fact I thought that Runny's drop was such a foregone
conclusion that my post was intended to be equal parts
humor and heads up. The cow had already left the
barn, I just was telling a few of the farmers that it was
gone.
So in my book (which counts for very little) you are just
wrong on this issue (as I'm sure I am wrong in yours)
and I'm ready to move on.
Play Ball!!
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| 47 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Mon, Apr 28, 2003, 23:50
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I have to admit when I first read the Runy thread I thought "Everybody already knows that. What's the big deal?" I took for exactly what PP said in that last post "In fact I thought that Runny's drop was such a foregone conclusion that my post was intended to be equal parts humor and heads up." I guess I just don't see it as the straw that broke the camel's back or the ride of Paul Revere.
'85, there was nothing wrong with your observation. It was just the way you presented it. It's a self-policing forum. Take all the suggestions in the spirit in which they were intended and just offer some analysis and thought and a better title, that's all. I bought Mora on a few teams myself yesterday when I sold Jimenez from the SS position.
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| 48 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 00:43
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pp. so what you are saying is i could start a thread right now saying that clemens will be the next train and i bet you anything that the clemens buy rate will shoot up. i dont think that is it right to go look for a player that have made alot of money and say he should be sold for someone I have. it just triggers a mass selloff.
Someone said it best in a different thread, there are alot of lurkers out there that dont post but do read everything that is written and when they see there is talk about someone dropping and someone else rising they jump on it immediately.
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| 49 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 03:06
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Wiggs, give it a try. Go hype a 2-4 mil player who has been doing ok, and lets see if we can create enough hype to get him on the gainers list. If you do manage to do it, I'd be pretty surprised.
Fact is, the Runny drop was happening anyway. You seem to want to ignore this. Had PP not written his thread, Runny would have been gone for Loaiza anyway on many teams, and you still would have been 'forced' to move him. You would have us never create threads about anyone, on the off chance that others might read it and buy/sell that player. So what is the point of this messege board then? If we're not supposed to talk about players, are we all supposed to be quiet when we have questions or thoughts on a player/train/matchup?
I really would like you to hype someone in another thread. Lets see what Rotoguru's influence really is. I'm putting my money on it being minimal, if at all exsistant. We have what, maybe 50 regular posters here? Lurkers might bump it up to 100-150. With 17000 teams (likely around 7000 owners) thats a shade over 2% of the players.
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| 50 | cancermoon
ID: 36347284
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 03:22
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I don't think the thread title would cause any dump, just one persosn opinion, but since it encourages everyone else to pop in and say how they are selling this person on all their five teams, and then another and another and another person, soon enough all those that even were determined to hold soon give up and sell, as they see the mass carnage bilding like a snow ball, encouraging more and more people to sell. I have no problem with PP's thread though, but lemmings are sheep and need suggestions made to them, they don't think of things for themselves.
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| 51 | farbermania
ID: 153232112
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:02
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Wiggs,
I don't know how long you've been in this game, but all the hard "research" you did to find a "steal of a player" such as Runny was a day late and a dollar short. Part of winning this game, as in EVERY game, is being one step ahead of your opponents. Whatever analysis you did on Runny obviously didn't include his LARGE price increases over a SHORT period of time. It also must not have included the HISTORY of what happened to other players in the same position. Runny IS UNPROVEN! He's a house of cards that is build to high. Nobody wants to be the last guy holding him when he finally implodes. One bad start. That's all it'll take. People on these boards are people who have been burned before, and care enough about making the game more interesting to try to help keep others from being burned.
This is an educationally-competitive thread. Which means, posts here are meant to increase knowledge and better the competition.
The people who post here aren't GOD. They can neither see the future, nor force the outcome of what will happen. That's what we like to call SPEC-U-LA-TION.
I am one of those people who have "lurked" on these boards for years. I only recently started posting because I've learned so much from these boards that I want to give back (although, I havn't had the guts to start my own thread yet). I don't take seriously every thread I've read on these boards. Sometimes it's paid off, other times I paid for it. I, for one, am not the least bit interested in Mora. He can't offer any of my teams anything that I want out of a player. I don't think he'll be the next trian, and if I'm wrong, then I'll board late and try to gain some more RV.
You are basically accusing people in this forum of cheating. Stand down, brother, cause that just ain't true.
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| 52 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:15
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Wiggs,
it just triggers a mass selloff.
You could not be more wrong. Cases in point:
April 25th, On the 85th year titles a thread; "Anbody considering Jorge Julio?(speculation)". The text in the subject field; "Very favorable schedule approaching, he's been rock solid for the last 2 weeks. I may go that direction pending the Macdougal scenario" Well, MacDougal actually had started leaking money the day before, but Julio gained nada, not a single dollar following that post or anytime since.
======================================
April 21st, Pink Pimp creates his "D'Angelo Jimenez = Bullet Train" thread. The text in this one:
Why is D'Angelo a Bullet Train?
Because his multi position elegibility ensures that he
will gain value much faster than an identical player with
only one position.
His overall rankings based on TSNP:
#2 at 2nd base
#1 at 3rd base
#1 at shortstop
And he's still cheap at $2.8 million.
He's an interesting test case because he's the first
cheap player to be at the top in multiple positions
(excluding DH). But I think the storm of buys that will
result from this confluence will also have other possibly
unforseen effects.
He is going to get so many buys so quickly that his
gains might be flattened out by the pricing algorithm
each day and that might lead to repucussions when its
time to sell. If his gains do get flattened, then the
possibility exists that a gradual sell off could lower him
well below his current price.
He's been gaining value steadily but now the buys are
coming in droves. Unlike a player who has slow steady
increases as does Soriano, D'Angelo's gains are now
going through the roof.
If you aren't on this train yet, you better hop on now if
you want a piece of the action because come Thursday
he could be $400 to $500 or higher higher in price. And
If Blalock derails soon (which he shows no sign of
doing however) the effect is only going to increase.
What happened? Well D'Angelo had already made some $490k over the previous 12 days, but PP's added hype did not seem to boost the already moving train. He'd made $120k on 4/20 (the day before the thread was posted) and $140k on 4/21, several hours after the thread creation. But blaming the Pimp for the extra $20k doesn't seem too logical, as Jimenez had put up 43, 38 and 38 points in the three days prior and had gone up 20k, 30k, 50k, and 120k in the 4 days prior. Of course he was going to continue to accellerate!
======================================
April 13th, mtpoke25 starts a thread titled, "4/13 Trades - Blalock for ??", with the following in the subject field; "I am going to trade Blalock on all 3 of my teams tomorrow morning. He appears to have peaked, so I am going to take the $900K and run. Am I safe to assume that many others are doing the same? If so, who is the next TRAIN that people are jumping on? Helton appears nice, but you gotta have the $$. I am going to go with Baldelli from TB on at least one team. Any other ideas?"
Blalock did not lose any cash the next day or on any day since. In fact, he has risen another $400k since then.
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| 53 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:38
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farbermania ,
Nobody wants to be the last guy holding him when he finally implodes. One bad start. That's all it'll take. you are absolutely right. can you please tell me when his bad start was as i must have missed it.
You are basically accusing people in this forum of cheating. Stand down, brother, cause that just ain't true. I have accused no one of cheating, i simply said i didnt like it. Am i not allowed to have an opinion?
As far as how long i have been playing this game, this is my first ultimate team but i did the basic last season. My thoughts on how to win this game would include not wasting trades on players that are still playing well and making money so it bothered me to be forced into making a move that i didnt want to do. I already had Loiaza along with Runny so that move wouldnt have been automatic for me. I am not trying to create any problems here, but i thought the whole point of the thread was to give opinions.
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| 54 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:46
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I have accused no one of cheating, i simply said i didnt like it. Am i not allowed to have an opinion?
Sure you're allowed, but your opinion is wrong. Threads like Pimp's and this one can not possibly have a significant effect on the trading habits of the masss, much less trigger a major selloff.
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| 55 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:52
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MITH, if that is the case then mussina should fall off the table with his price when? must be soon, he has gone up close to a million so the market must be close to saturated. It shouldnt require a bad start or a thread, he should just start losing money soon, correct?
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| 56 | J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:54
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I dont know how you can say someone's opinion is wrong. He's allowed whatever opinion he wants.
If PP never started that thread, the only difference is, Runny would've started to go down in price and a few more people may have been shocked when 12:01pm rolled around.
A thread on these boards has NO power to control any price movers (as has been well known for a while now).
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| 57 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:55
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and Loiaza is up over 1.5 mill why hasnt his sell off begun? he is unproven.
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| 58 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 09:57
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J I agree with you that he would have leaked down in price, but i was hoping to hold for atleast 1 more start. With out the thread, i would have never consided moving until i saw his price take a decent hit. I could have dealt with losing 20-30 K for an 80 point start, but when the drops were going 130K i was forced along with many others to jump ship immediately.
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| 59 | Khahan
ID: 3127107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:00
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Wiggs, with regards to Mussina, he's the type of player people in the TSN game will hold onto over a longer period of time, sometimes despite a bad start or two. He's proven in the past that in any given game he can pitch a masterpiece.
That's the difference between Runny and Mussina...stability. Which is also why Mussina costs so much more to begin with.
As for Loaiza, he is proven. He's proven to be the winningest pitcher in April over the past few years. More April wins than Randy. More than Pedro. More than Curt. More than Mussina. More than any other pitcher (at least the past 2-3 years). Last I checked it the calender it was still April. ;) He's got a bit of time left.
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| 60 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:01
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Loiaza's price will react like Runny's sometime after his next start in my OPINION, even if he puts up a good game. Don't get mad at me for saying so. In this game, "selling high" is part of the game whether it's logical or not. There are always going to be "forced sells" because of irrational mass sells. There were last year too -- remember Padilla going down while he was still pithing well?
At least the direction of this thread has taken an interesting turn (from a discussion point). Can "hype" from secondary message boards influence price? I'll bet this thread doesn't cause Mora to rise. 1 bad game and he will crach despite the "hype" in this thread (in my opinion).
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| 61 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:12
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Runelvys had a 46 point game on 4/16 with massive ownership and the selloff happened immediately after. Why can't you grasp that? Would the same happen to Mussina? I don't know, my guess is it would happen to a lesser extent, but comparing them is completely moot. Mussina is a 12 year veteran and multiple all star on the team that scores more runs than anyone. If you can't understand why the masses might exhibit more confidence in him and thus be more forgiving of a single bad outing than an overachieving rookie they never heard of until a few months ago who plays on an overachieving team that everyone expected to be firmly entrenched in the cellar by now, I don't know what to tell you.
You are basing too much of your opinion of the intelligence and knowlege of the masses on your experience in basic. They are a different class of player playing a more competetive game. In ultimate, people shell out $20 and tend to pay more attention and generally be more informed, making them a better and more competetive class of fantasy managers. Consider that most peope playing this game - even non gurupies have considerably more experience than you in it. That's not a knock on you - on the contrary you've done commendably well in your first month, even better that most gurupies, but you don't seem to have entirely grasped the nature of some of the price movements yet. Note the number of veterans who are not phazed by by 'Elvys' price drop. You may not like the strategic forces of the consensus of the masses that caused his price to drop, you may even consider it a flaw in the game, but believe me, it has nothing to do with this forum.
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| 62 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:20
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Runny's drop also happened to coincide with Loaiza being there, with his 4 straight 100+ TSNP scores, his very similar price (200K cheaper I believe) and his already rising price. Everyone knew Loazia would go up, people with Runny were nervous, and the very obvious happened.
Now we have two new trains in Loazia and Chacon who are going to do the exact same thing. Weather or not the drop is as obvious as Runny will have alot to do with potential options. Maybe people will move back into Runny. But what if Runny gets shelled to the tune of -50 TSNP? A lack of options may leave the masses holding. (Much like Blalock has done. A lack of good cheapie options at 3B is preventing a massive selloff right now.)
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| 63 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:25
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Exctly, Rogue. There were simply too many factors working against Runny. First poor outing, natural lack of security that comes with any rookie, everyone waiting for his whole overachieving team to come back to earth in a fiery crash, the quiet emergence of Loaiza as someone to seemlessly shift into. It wasn't hard to predict.
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| 64 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:29
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Wealth creation patterns are significantly different in the Ultimate game vs. the Basic game. Note that Runy's price is still going up in the Basic game. The obvious reason is the ongoing creation of new teams in the Basic game which provides an avenue for heavily owned players to continually be bought.
Player price gains will top off much sooner in the Ultimate game. $2 million is about as much as a player has achieved, at least without some pullback. Loaiza will achieve that by the time of his next start. If he tops 100 TSNP again, he'll probably survive for another start. But he is definitely someone to be wary of. Expect his pace of gains to begin to subside in the next few days as well.
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| 65 | farbermania
ID: 153232112
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:30
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Wiggs,
"can you please tell me when his bad start was as i must have missed it."
My point is not that he had a bad start, but he will, and people who have played for a while know that they are going to get caught in the cold with their pants down if they don't get out now.
RE: "I have accused no one of cheating"
Post #14: "So many people just pick up anyone whos name is mentioned."
Post #25: "Why would anyone sell (Runny). . .except that someone said we are selling and there will be a major drop off."
Post #39: "I guess the question is, who decides when a player is a hold or a train?" AND "and then have a random thread force me into trading him or taking a major money hit."
Post #48: "I dont think that is it right to go look for a player that have made alot of money and say he should be sold for someone I have. it just triggers a mass selloff."
Whether you know it or not you are insinuating two things by these posts:
1) That people on these posts, and the things they write have the power to "force" people to make trades or face serious RV loss by not complying
AND. . .
2) That people are willing to use that power as an advantage to manipulate the masses (i.e. cheating).
This is not Star Trek: The Next Generation, and we are not the Borg who have come to assimilate you into our singular conscience.
Look, do whatever the heck you wanna do. You opinon is just as valued as anyone's here (except for maybe Guru himself). But when your opinon smacks of accusations, you begin to bite the hand that feeds you.
What you don't seem to understand is that this is a MARKET based game. Remember what the Tech-stocks did in the mid-90's? Big companies bought a lot of stock in small, unproven companies that had no overhead. It made a lot of people rich in a short amount of time, but the market was HUGELY inflated. Then, it imploded on itself and LOTS of people lost a lot of money. All Tech stocks plummited. There were some that weathered the storm (yahoo, e-bay, etc.) and have come out strong on the other end.
Runny is the Tech stock, and there are too many of us who have been burned by this scenario in the past to let it happen to us again. We're getting out now. If he crashes, we win, if he doesn't, we catch him on his next upswing and ride his next, more stable wave.
The question is, is Runny and e-bay, or is he just a dirty, inflated, IPO? ONLY time will tell.
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| 66 | Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 40211014
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:38
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Wow, 60+ posts on a thread entitled MORA(next train). This is not the Politics forum, lighten up, have fun, it's only a game. you guys can be way too serious at times.
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| 67 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 133252814
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:39
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Forced sells due to lemmings has been a part of this game since the small world days. The ability to think like a lemming is what allows insightful managers like PP to predict (not cause) the selloff and capitalize on it.
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| 68 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:50
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TF, its just a discussion. More serious then others on the baseball forum, but still just a polite discussion.
Although, I had the same thought (Politics Forum) when I saw MITH's post. :)
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| 69 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 10:53
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Sorry, can't help it.
:)
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| 70 | On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:07
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OKAY, alright MORA is not a train, JEEEZZZZAAA, although he was $50 yesterday, maybe +60 today, LOL... lets end this thread!!!! Maybe I'll delete it!!
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| 71 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:12
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No, don't delete it. (If you do, I'll just restore it!) There are some good points in here.
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| 72 | On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:14
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Good points? Yeah like a bunch of ol ladies drinkin gin-n-t's playin bridge...
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| 73 | J
Leader
ID: 49346417
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:23
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Wiggs, I'm not saying he would've leaked, he still would've lost the same amount with or without the thread. I'm talking about 5 or 6 people here, inluding you obviously ;)
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| 74 | Bandos
Donor
ID: 422571916
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 11:45
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Lets debate the merits of G-n-t's and playing bridge. If you have 13 points you can sell runny and avoid the money loss, if not, you ......
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| 75 | ukula
Donor
ID: 55340296
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 12:05
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Considering the debate of $ versus points versus trades I think it would be interesting to come up with a calculation (for comparison purposes) to estimate the strength of each TSN team.
My thought is this (please make suggestions if you think the variables may be wrong):
Current TSNP + (RV * x * games remaining) + (PT * y) + (HT * z) = POTENTIAL
x = TSNP/EG/$mil (I was thinking 3.0 to start)
y = I was thinking 70 points
z = possibly 15 points if the trade was used for points only. The 15 points would come from an extra game from a quality player.
EXAMPLE: 3500 current TSNP, RV 58.0, PT 3, HT 2
3500 + (58*3*125) + (3*70) + (2*15) = 25,490
I didn't factor in any future trades since everyone would receive the same number and it would be a wash.
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| 76 | Khahan
ID: 3127107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 12:57
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Wow...damn I hate math.
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| 77 | Richard
ID: 10112315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:12
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As it turns out, it looks like a move to Marcus Giles instead of Mora would be getting you more dollars. Giles seems to be getting the lion's share of the move away from Jimenez. So far I'm glad I went that way instead of into Mora. Perhaps Mora is just a bit slow at gathering steam and might yet prove to be the better move than Giles but I doubt it.
Richard
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| 78 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 0059248
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:14
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I'm sorry Richard, but your post was .027 over the "hype" meter. Soclose.
pd
:)
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| 79 | Astade
ID: 303521820
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:39
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Ukula,
I think that you have a fairly close approximation for trying to incorporate pts, RV and trades.
However, what do you think about nesting the # of trades (HT and PT) into the RV slot too?
After all, optimally you can get pts and extra cash from trades that have been banked.
Just a thought...
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| 80 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 14:54
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Richard unfortunately for me I had Jiminez at SS. Giles wasn't an option. I wanted to get Giles in there, but Soriano mans 2B for me and likely will for a long time. :)
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| 81 | Richard
ID: 10112315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:30
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Rogue Nine - I was lucky, I had Soriano at DH and Jimenez at 2B so the swap Jimenez-> Giles was easy for me. I didn't need to, but I moved Soriano from DH into SS (where he'll stay for a while) and Giles is now, temporarily, my DH. I say temporarily, because I suspect the Giles ride will be fairly short and changing out the DH spot is quite flexible. I didn't need a SS change.
So far I'm making decent money by riding a couple of price gainers at pitcher and one price gainer at hitter. I don't want to juggle anymore than that since being caught without trades is a great way to put a broomstick in the spokes of the money making machine;-)
Richard
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| 82 | Richard
ID: 10112315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:33
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Damn - I should learn to proof-read. Soriano is sitting at 2B on my team (not SS as I originally wrote). Having him at SS would be quite a neat trick;-)
Richard
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| 83 | Caper
Donor
ID: 1535108
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:36
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You got me to go and recheck his position elegibility. :)
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| 84 | mrbig
ID: 430582315
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:37
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Doesn't Mora have a mini-train every year?!
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| 85 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:37
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mith, Runelvys had a 46 point game on 4/16 with massive ownership and the selloff happened immediately after. Why can't you grasp that? if you look, he never hit negative money until 4/23 and on 4/22 he put up like 95 points i think. I dont know what what the definition of immediate is in your world, but a week doesnt seem like immediate to me.
farbermania, i am sorry you took my posts as accusations of cheating. i am not accusing anyone of cheating, if anything i think some people use the boards to better themselves and there are alot of lemmings that see someone post and immediately do whatever is said. i believe people can use the boards to say or do what they want within the guide lines of the rules, but i also have the right to say i dont like it if i dont. I would also still like to know who decides when a player is to be sold. For example, MacDougal is 10-11 on saves and there is a sell off. I see 10 saves this early as a great thing. Loiaza has to be about saturated how do you know when to sell if someone doesnt post?
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| 86 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:47
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wiggs,
nobody told you about the 5 day pricing format? You're wrong when you say he did not lose money until 4/23. On 4/21 - 5 days after 4/16 - he lost $20k. This came after 4 consecutive days of gaining less and less money because fewer people were buying into him than were getting out. So, the buys that took place before 4/16 were having less effect on his price change each day until finally there was none. Countering the sells to a small degree were unsavvy players who apparently bought into his next start. That's why you see the $20k gain on 4/22, but obviously, there weren't too many of them because on 4/23 he lost $50k. Most people who had held through the initial loss were doing so to get the one last start out of him, and then bailed. But believe what you want. All the logic in the world and evidence in post 52 which you choose not to address obviously won't change your mind.
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| 87 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:48
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Loiaza has to be about saturated how do you know when to sell if someone doesnt post?
Well thats the key to it all, isn't it? Knowing when to sell. What most of us have been saying all along is that we knew when to sell Runny. PP's post didn't 'clue us in', we already knew. Just like we'll know with Loaiza. If he goes 3-4 days with no gains, its a given that people will get antsy sitting on a player who has gone up 2 mil and is now in the 0-10K daily range. If there is another good option (Runny possibly, damn he's getting cheap!) the move will be a no-brainer. If there isn't any great cheapie to move into, Loaiza will still drop, although alot more slowly. (I'd probably move him into either a closer or a mid-priced starter.) One thing you can bet on, I'll know when its time to dump him. Its the key to TSN's games, and if you try and fight the market-driven mentality you'll go nuts. Think like a day-trader, and consider your players as your stocks.
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| 88 | Rogue Nine
ID: 363382623
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:59
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Richard, 81 - I find that most hitter trains this year have been either short or never-ending. (Blalock) Probably why I haven't been on one in the last week or so. With 10 PT's and 1 HT, I'm obviously leaning towards pitcher trains. I've also got alot of money invested in hitting (Irod, Helton, Soriano, Bernie) so there's also less potential positions for trains for me. I made the same mistake last year though, putting too much money into hitting too early. I made a vow in the off-season not to fall into that trap this year, only to have RJ/Pedro/Oswalt push me there anyway. Doh!
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| 89 | quik_ag
ID: 24016292
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 15:59
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i went into runny's 4/22 start knowing that i was going to drop him after that start. in fact, pp's thread's topic seemed ridiculously obvious to me. anyways, my take on the matter is this: after runny's mediocre outing on 4/16, having already saturated the market, many managers decided that it was time for him to go. his net buys dried up almost completely, but the ultimate managers are not stupid. realizing that the 5-day repricing algorithm is in effect and that runny had significant buys leading into that start, it made sense to hold him until he stopped making money. he went negative the day before his 4/22 start, and that was the nail in his coffin. the ride was over and the massive selloff was a foregone conclusion even before he pitched admirably the next night. smart managers realized that his ownership had nowhere to go but down at that point and they bailed early, resulting in a tolerable 50k drop. the rest of the managers followed suit realizing that his price would continue to drop and that loaiza, who had just pitched another solid game, was going to make a lot of money in the near future. your hand wasn't forced by the thread, but by the fact that many managers in the ultimate game know what they're doing.
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| 90 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 16:15
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Good post quick_ag. You explained it much better than I did. Also, I guess I was hasty in saying that it was unsavvy to pick up Runny for that 4/22 start, as if you were doing so with intentions to rotate out right after or at least leave that open as a liklihood, then you can't argue with the strategy, and obviously not with the result, either. Obviously, the move was unsavvy for anyone who traded in after 4/16 thinking the cash gains would continue.
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| 91 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 56332914
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 16:47
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I gotta hand it to wiggs on one count though, he's not some AL punk pitcher like Clemens who never has to take the beanball in return (Although the Mets had their chance and failed.) At least wiggs has stuck around to debate the topic.
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| 92 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 17152614
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:23
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Regardless of hype, the name of the game is to NOT differentiate. By not following, you differentiate at the most crucial time, and end up burying yourself at the bottom. Differentiate with unheld players, but don't play with fire with the the held players.
Regardless of how good Loiaza continues to perform, he is probably 4 or 5 days away from the consistant buys...once that happens we'll all sell and do some bigtime collusion. ;)
smallwhirled
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| 93 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:24
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thanks PP. i am still learning this game, this is my first season playing. I guess i just get bothered because i seem to be burning trades like crazy.
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| 94 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 10261612
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:29
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btw PP, i think your runny post was well written and of course i am benefitting from everyone moving out of runny now. Hopefully i will be able to pick up runny in a week when he is dirt cheap.
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| 95 | Strike One
ID: 356372421
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 18:40
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I think the bottom line is this, if the player is producing points he'll go up in price, if he doesn't produce points, his price will go down. It has nothing to do with hype, just that a less proven player has a much smaller margin for error in his performance as far his price flunctuation goes than a proven veteran.
Using pitcher X and pitcher Y as an example, if both are highly held and player X is a young and unproven and player Y is a proven veteran, Obviously, I think we would all agree that player X is more likely to fall in price before player Y. Since assuming they've both been putting up decent points and have relatively the same ownership, player X will likely see a noticable amount of sells with a bad/average start imediately while player Y, after a bad/ average start, likely won't see noticable gains until after two back to back (or two out of three) bad/average starts. This is an important point to realize and understand when you have a young unproven pitching train on your roster. However, if after he sees some sells, player X puts together two or three 100+ TSNP performances in a row, naturally his price will start to go in a posistive direction again. if the player produces points he will gets buys, that is the bottom line.
So if you're holding a player like player X, who after a bad/average start begins to fall, You have to weigh the potential loss with how you think player X will perform. His potential to fall in price is usually so high that a manager does not want to take a risk and hold out of selling player X, but if player X conitues to put up good TSNP numbers than he can only fall so far before his price either stagnates or rises once again. In the end, you will find that the top manangers in the game don't follow the "lemmings" rather they follow their gut in most cases. If they think a player will continue to produce they'll hold, if they don't they'll sell.
At this point of the season, I think it really depends on the type of manager. Which is more important to a him? Having a guy, who is falling in price, average 100+ TSNP over three starts then seeing his price stagnate or rise OR losing a substantial amount of money in that time period. There is no proven answer to the question.
Personally, if I thought the player would continue to produce, I would keep him, take the brief price hits and save a trade.
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