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Subject: What is "Guru-Rotation"?
Posted by: Bykov
- [113241711] Wed, May 21, 2003, 10:52
Just curious as I have seen this phrase a few times and was wondering what exactly the philosophy is behind it.
Thanx. |
| 1 | Perm Dude
Leader
ID: 2345588
Wed, May 21, 2003, 10:56
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This thread might help (or, it might just confuse).
In any case, there it is.
pd
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| 2 | Ira
ID: 46345416
Wed, May 21, 2003, 17:28
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Ahh, that makes 2 threads people know me now by..
Trivia question: 10 points to who knows which other thread
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| 3 | SillySpheres at Work
ID: 582492810
Wed, May 21, 2003, 17:48
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why not 85 million points?
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| 4 | Spi's Like Me
ID: 551231013
Wed, May 21, 2003, 18:24
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was that thread still from when the pitching prices were based on a daily basis, not the 5-day average? also, it seemed to work then, does it now with the 5 day avg?
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| 5 | TJ
ID: 44252120
Wed, May 21, 2003, 21:25
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#2 Ira
just to clue you in Bud. you think you've become famous with your 85 Million thread. the truth is whenever someone brings that farcical thing back to the top they are laughing AT you not with you.
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| 6 | Ira
ID: 46345416
Wed, May 21, 2003, 21:33
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Thanks Mr. Obvious. Dooly noted.
Rather be famous for something than a stinkin nobody who makes fun of the famous
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| 7 | slater
ID: 224352120
Wed, May 21, 2003, 21:35
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i wouldn't want to be famous because i am looked upon as a fool
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| 8 | Ira
ID: 46345416
Wed, May 21, 2003, 21:36
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Yep, being famous is a hard-knock life..
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| 9 | Pi314159
Donor
ID: 4734146
Wed, May 21, 2003, 21:41
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This is my first time hearing that phrase, gururotation, so I read the past threads and have to clarify a mathematical point that maybe someone else has already mentioned (maybe it's even a repeat of one of the articles/threads I didn't read, so sorry if this is a repeat).
My point is this: The trade efficiency achieved by a gururotation is not a function of the repetitive rotation five times in a row. It's a function of not wasting a day between trades. In other words, if you only use your trades the day after a starter starts (I call it the "day after" rule), it doesn't matter if you do five in a row, four in a row, three in a row, or two in a row, or any number of combinations of the above in any combination of the five different starters, because over a given month-long period, the total number of starts will be the same as in a gururotation. (This won't be the case if you analyze it over a five-day period, but over any lengthy period (say three or four weeks) it will equal out. The reason you lose efficiency is by waiting between starts (in the Randro scenario described in the old threads, you're wasting either two or three days between trades -- that's what costs efficiency). Mathematically, the gururotation is simply one of many ways to achieve the best trade efficiency using the day after rule.
Given that, a more flexible day after approach is, in my opinion, superior to the gururotation, because you get the same number of trades without being locked into four out of five of your pitchers. In the gururotation, if one of your four "locked" starters has some bad matchups coming, you have to suffer through it. Under the day after approach, you can trade out of bad matchups and into good ones more easily. Same efficiency, less rigidity.
I'm not sure if I explained that well, I believe it's accurate.
Again, sorry if that's a repeat, but for us newcomers, the explanation of the gururotation seemed a bit too absolute to let it go without a clarification of this point.
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| 10 | Species
Sustainer
ID: 7724916
Thu, May 22, 2003, 00:36
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Pi -
I'm far from the stats whiz, but aren't you neglecting to count the starts you miss if you just held the pitcher in the spot you're rotating from? In a 6 day period of time, for example, you'd get 2 starts from that pitcher if you just held him (assuming we start on the day he pitches). The point of the GuruRotation was to maximize efficiency in between starts of the pitcher you had to begin with.
You use 5 trades in a GuruRotation, let's say RJ-Pedro-Mulder-Zito-Schilling-RJ. You've used 5 trades to pick up 4 extra starts (hence the .8 starts per trade). You would've received the 2 RJ starts anyway if you just held.
Someone else probably has a much better way of explaining it.....but I wonder if you're not taking into account the starts of the pitcher in question in a Gururotation that wasn't 5 straight days.
Welcome to the boards.
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| 11 | Slackjawed Yokel
Sustainer
ID: 52347519
Thu, May 22, 2003, 01:20
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Actually, that's the same as I understood it Pi. Your efficiency is simply not wasting a day trading out of a pitcher late or into a pitcher early. Technically, I don't think you have to return to the same pitcher or even do it for five or six days, that's just an easy example to demonstrate it. (again, this is just as I understand it...)
Also, something not mentioned too often is the advantage of the pitchers who go every 5 days as opposed to those who go every fifth start.
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| 12 | Razor
Donor
ID: 411149818
Thu, May 22, 2003, 01:35
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Ira fights back. Post 6 was hysterical. Stinkin nobody....hysterical.
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| 13 | Rogue Nine
ID: 58441214
Thu, May 22, 2003, 02:05
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You know, I've never really understood why some people think of Ira in the same class as PGunn or Yongebuk. He's just a normal poster, and has even been running our hockey playoff pool.
Anyway, to the topic at hand: I'm not a math expert either (actually, I did all the way up to Calculus 3, but it took me two weeks to forget all that nonsense) but I think Species is correct. Pi, I think you forgot to take into account the starts you'd get if you just held. The Guru Rotation does that, and in the end you get .8 starts per trade. Since all MLB teams use 5 man rotations, you can't get better then that.
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| 14 | Pi314159
Donor
ID: 4734146
Thu, May 22, 2003, 07:16
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Species,
I'm not neglecting that start, because the "next day" approach will key that start in the next day in the cycle - i.e., on the seventh day rather than the sixth, without a second trade. In other words, pitcher goes day one, trade on day two, new pitcher goes day seven. Three starts in seven days, one trade. That's the efficiency you want. Either trade into a start immediately following a prior start or let the prior starter wait it out until the next start. There's no advantage to a gururotation over that method over a multi-week period.
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| 15 | Gangman
Leader
ID: 36155210
Thu, May 22, 2003, 08:57
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Nice donor tag Pi ;-)
Man it's no wonder I've been so mediocre over
the last 2 years. I'm a "gut" trade-a-holic, and
it's hard to matchup against the rocket
scientists.
FYI: Here's a gem that I picked up while
trolling the TSN boards (they are weak!). Topic
was why Hudson dropped:
It was very predictable and expected
that Hudson would be sold the last few days
for either Zito on Thursday and/or Mulder on
Friday, and for even Schilling today by others. I
didn't even check the daily ownership
numbers on Hudson, but I'm sure he has had
steady sells since the 15th. In my best
upscale suburban Connecticut Biff
voice "This is what the so-called TSN elite
players, you know, the "better" players, call the
rotoguru rotation."
Yuk, makes me want to puke.
Sounds like Casey at the Bat is not a big fan...
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| 16 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, May 22, 2003, 09:03
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Pi314159 [9] is absolutely correct. The efficiency comes from dropping a pitcher immediately after he starts to pick up a new pitcher who goes the next day. The "Guru rotation" is a special form of that approach that allows you to end up with the same pitcher that you started with.
This point has been discussed a number of times before, but is worth repeating because many still do not understand it. Some people dismiss the "guru rotation" concept on the basis that it is too difficult to find a good 5-day alignment of starters. But simply picking your spots and moving a day at a time is just as efficient, and doesn't require stockpiling as many trades in advance.
I seldom line up five consecutive starts. But, when managing without regard for price changes, I always try to move efficiently from one starter to the next. It helps to have a few pitching slots (2 or 3) from which you can rotate, as this expands the flexibility greatly.
This general philosophy was advanced when pitcher pricing did not use 5-days of trades. But the strategy does not deal with price changes, so that's moot. The change in pitcher repricing obviously impacts how you want to manage the timing of pitching trades, and some of those tradeoffs will be at odds with point efficiency. For example, it may be a good idea to pick up a pitcher well in advance of a start if your are assured of multiple days of big price gains. That is very efficient from a pricing standpoint, but not very efficient from a point-production standpoint.
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| 17 | Species
Sustainer
ID: 569221717
Thu, May 22, 2003, 11:39
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Pi - I see the light! Thanks for your reply in #14.....I get the point.
Just goes to show you there are many ways to skin a cat.
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| 18 | Ref
Donor
ID: 100261311
Thu, May 22, 2003, 12:00
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thats why his name is pi....i figured he had some statistical or math background. I'm jsut glad he didn't extend his name a few thousand more places! ;)
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| 19 | Pi314159
Donor
ID: 21311112
Thu, May 22, 2003, 12:59
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I don't practice what I preach, fellas. I'm a gut tradeaholic too, and I'm also a money whore, at least until July. I do try, when possible, to make my trades the "day after" to get some efficiency out of it, but matchups and money take precedence over efficiency more often than not. For example, I just had to dump Hampton after yesterday (not the best "gut" move of the year) but I'd rather have Brown in that slot than anyone going today even though it cost me the efficiency.
Strategies are nice to have and aspire to, but rigid self-imposed rules would make this game too boring to play.
BTW, I haven't been a math nerd since high school and college (where I studied engineering for a while). I'm just a lawyer these days.
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| 20 | icer
ID: 15331119
Thu, May 22, 2003, 15:23
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Eh, this guru stuff is a crock anyway, precisely because it doesnt take into account money changes. The "day-after" strategy is what makes sense, and that's pretty much common sense anyway (obviously all things being equal if youre selling a pitcher youd like to get a guy whos pitching the next day).
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| 21 | Chuck
Donor
ID: 44450814
Thu, May 22, 2003, 15:54
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icer-- we all know that this has nothing to do with $$. However, in the end, the game is about points, not $$.
That's why this is not a "crock" but a valid strategy-- it maximizes your exposure to point potential.
For example, I did this rotation this week:
Schilling--> Hudson--> Zito
Now I'm holding Zito. However, there was not good pick today. So I may start a rotation on Sunday out of Loaiza if he bombs (just for example). So, I'm still getting maximum efficiency whether I rotate 7 days in a row or rotate 2 days and then break and start it up again 3 days later. Efficiency is efficiency, regardless of how long it takes to use your trades.
It disregards $$, b/c $$ is not the point of it. But it does not force you to lose $$, b/c you can rotate out of any spot.
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| 22 | icer
ID: 15331119
Thu, May 22, 2003, 16:10
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Did you read what I said? That is the "next day" strategy Pi brought up.
3 pitchers is not a rotation. Thats trading guys the day after they pitch. And incidentally, it does hurt your money now because if guys pitch well they keep going up unlike before. Not to mention keeping 4 other pitchers static will result in money losses unless youre real lucky. Although you seem to be trading from more than one spot, which further dilutes the idea of the "guru rotation" that I have been reading about.
Everyone knows the game is not about having money, just like everyone also knows whoever has the most money has the best chance to get a lot of points.
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