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Subject: Team Analysis: Florida Marlins
Posted by: blue hen
- Leader [298101320] Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 23:29
Remember when we discussed Hall of Fame chances of the Detroit Tigers? Sure, perhaps Eric Munson, Jeremy Bonderman, and Carlos Pena have a long ways to go, but didn't it spark some good discussion? Well, what about the Marlins? I think it'll be fun to discuss their Hall of Fame chances. Sure, Ivan Rodriguez is already in, and Jeff Conine probably never will be, but what about the rest? I think we can have some interesting talk about Josh Beckett, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, A.J. Burnett, and Derrek Lee, to name a few.
Let's hear it! |
| 1 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 03:11
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With health Beckett has a slim shot. Cabrera too, just because he is an unknown quantity and his upside is huge. I wouldn't bet on anyone else.
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| 2 | blah
ID: 33935517
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 10:23
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nah.
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| 3 | ChicagoTRS
Sustainer
ID: 566152116
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 15:36
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IRod is in...
I think the only 3 worth talking about are Cabrera, Beckett, Willis. I would say the chances for Beckett/Willis are very slim at best...not that their stuff is not great now but projecting young pitching to have any kind of sustained career/success is hit or miss (with a lot more misses).
Beckett is going to obviously get a huge PR bump from these playoffs...he has went from a pitcher everyone was talking about a few years back as the next great pitcher to bascially falling off the radar to now he is the next great pitcher again. He is still young enough at 23...the blister and shoulder problems are concerning. Still has a lot to prove.
Willis was the top story of the first half of MLB. He really slowed down in the second half and has had a very poor playoffs. In my mind he has a ton to prove as to whether he will even be a good MLB pitcher. 10 great games does not make a hall of famer.
Cabrera is just so young it is really hard to say what his longterm success will be, but if I had to bet on one player it would be him. Good hitters usually remain good hitters and have a much better chance of longterm success. Then again he still has a lot to prove...as well as he has hit in the playoffs he only hit .268 in the regular season with moderate power. Longterm he is probably an outfielder so that means he must be a great hitter if he would ever get in the hall...might have a better chance if he stuck at 3B.
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| 4 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 40029714
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 15:49
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Exactly, it's easy to narrow it down to the few obvious candidates, and most of them have the same issues - mainly health and inexperience.
A lot of people are talking about Pettitte and Mussina these days (who knows why?) and I think they are a pretty good benchmark. They're two very very good pitchers, who, ultimately, will probably fall just short of the Hall. More importantly, they are about what you could expect out of these guys. If Josh Beckett is Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown instead of Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux, he probably won't make it. Willis, again, is a flash in the pan, but he's very young, and COULD do something special yet.
One thing that we haven't touched on is the future of injuries. As pitch counts get tighter and tighter and medical methods get stronger and stronger, the dominant pitchers will be allowed to dominate without as much interruption by injury. Does that bode well for injury-prone Beckett (and perhaps Burnett)? We'll see.
Also, what do you guys think about Lowell, Lee, and Castillo. Three guys who are above average, and young enough to accumulate some big stats. Fred McGriff is a guy who gets some marginal mention as a candidate, and I think Lee is on the way to a very similar career path. Just a few steps up and he's Rafael Palmeiro...
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| 5 | Mattinglyinthehall
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Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 16:14
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IMO, Pettitte has a better chance than many people give him credit for. At 31, he's notched 149 victories in 9 seasons. If he stays with the Yankees and remains healthy, he could well prove wrong all of those who say that Maddux will likely be baseball's last 300 game winner.
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| 6 | beastiemiked
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ID: 3531815
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 16:27
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bh, Lee is a mediocre 1st baseman. He's going to need at least 10 more seasons similar to this past season to even get mentioned for the HOF. Comparing him to Raffy is absurd. Raffy has had 9 consecutive seasons of 38+ homeruns and 100+ RBI's, Derrick Lee hasn't even accomplished either of these feats once.
Not one of the guys you have mentioned has been at the upper echelon of their positions in any of the seasons they have played. I don't see any HOFer's out of that group unless they step it up a couple of notches.
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| 7 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 217351118
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 18:32
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Beckett has the stuff to be great. Whether he has the discipline, the longevity, the mettle and the success to have a HOF career is a matter to be determined.
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| 8 | Razor
Donor
ID: 458262214
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 18:49
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Cabrera and Beckett are the only guys I think have any shot at all. They both have the talent, now they just have to put that talent to good use for 15 years.
And you can't be serious with that Derrek Lee = Fred McGriff bit. Lee plays much better defense than McGriff ever did, but it's not even close. There was a time when McGriff was a premier hitter. Most of this best years were before the offensive explosion, which is why his numbers look worse on paper than they actually are. If McGriff doesn't make it into the Hall, he'll certainly be one of the best players not to go. He started out his career as a very good player and has been consistently good for a long time since. 9 homers away from 500 too.
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| 9 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 40029714
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 19:51
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Disagree with MITH on Pettitte. He's had 9 years playing for playoff teams every year. The Yankees can't possibly win as many games from 2004 to 2011 as they did from 1996 to 2003, can they? Even then, he's only got 149, which means the exact same conditions get him 298. Pettitte's great, and as I noted, he'll probably fall just shy of the Hall.
Razor brings up good points about McGriff, except that the biggest strike against the Crime Dog is all those great seasons by Palmeiro. Lee will sure have to get better to have a snowball's chance in hell to make it, but didn't we say the same thing about Palmeiro once upon a time?
I'd go with one of Cabrera, Beckett, Willis, and Burnett. The biggest problem is that three of them are pitchers, and pitchers are never a sure thing. But I'd certainly take them for the next 10 years over Bonderman, Pena, Munson, and... uh... German.
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| 10 | Mattinglyinthehall
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Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 23:02
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Not that I am saying Pettitte will reach 298 wins or the HOF, but no eligable pitcher with that many career wins has failed to make the HOF. I have to imagine that that particular threshold for eligability will be lowered in another 15 years.
Regardless, with the blessing of longevity I think he has the potential for a career that falls somewhere between Jack Morris and Jim Palmer, when you take the era in which he plays into consideration. He'd need to win at least one Cy Young and lead the league in a few more categories here and there, I think he has it in him. Obviously, I'm just musing here as longevity is no lock for him in the first place.
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| 11 | Razor
Donor
ID: 458262214
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 23:56
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He better get to 298 then, because there are 8 HOF eligible players with more than 270 wins but less than 300. Of the 8, 5 are not enshrined. Pettitte is a pretty good pitcher, but not worthy of mention in the same breath as Palmer. Pettitte will never ever be as good as Palmer. I think Morris is a better comparison. A good pitcher on good teams for a long time. Pettite needs to maintain his current luck (of being on great teams) and effectiveness until he's age 40 to have a shot at 300, which seems unlikely considering all pitchers exhibit some sort of decline in their 30's. I'm sure if he leaves NY, he'll have little shot at even 250 wins. I think Pettitte 300 wins is a pipe dream unless Pettite undergoes a Randy Johnson-like mid-30's boost in effectiveness.
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| 12 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 298101320
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 01:36
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Morris and Pettitte is actually a VERY good comparison, including postseason play. And Morris, at the moment, is a long shot for the Hall, and I think that's where Pettitte will fall. However, at this point, there's a chance Pettitte could string together a bunch of Cy Young seasons and cement it. Or he could be quite bad and fade out, falling far short of Morris. I'd take Pettitte in a bet to have more wins than all three of those Marlins pitchers by the time he's done. But still...
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| 13 | Mattinglyinthehall
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Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 10:46
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Practically speaking, I agree with you guys. that Pettitte's potential matches up fairly well with Jack Morris' career. My point was that his longshot potential is such that with the right (and unlikely) breaks, he could approach Palmer status, not achieve it. By "falls somewhere between Jack Morris and Jim Palmer", I didn't mean "as good as Palmer".
I agree he's a longshot for the HOF, but not out of the question, especially considering that threshold for some of the compiling type numbers should be lowered in another 15 years or so.
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| 14 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 10:46
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The dude has just under a 4 era with only one season which could be characterized as above good - and that was 6 years ago. Simply being a yankee shouldn't get you in the hall - ask mattingly.
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| 15 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 10:56
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This is who baseball reference compares Pettitte too in similarities
Tom Browning (939)
Jack McDowell (933)
Kirk Rueter (926)
Carl Erskine (926)
Vic Raschi (923)
Preacher Roe (920)
John Smiley (920)
Denny Neagle (913)
John Tudor (912)
Aaron Sele (911)
Thats not exactly hall of fame material. Hes never led the league in anything except wins in 1996. I dont think he has a shot in hell unless he wins 300. Forget about Cy Young. The guys only a 2 time all star. He has his work cut out for him.
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| 16 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:05
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As for Pettittes big game pitcher tag, he has pitched in 21 post season series' and has had an ERA over 5 in 8 of those series. And only has a 13-7 record and that includes this year. He was rocked in the 96 series of game 1. And destroyed in Game 6 of the 2001 series. Cleveland always killed him in the post season. And I know he responded to this years Game 2's winning all 3, but last year when they needed him in Game 2 against the angels, he got killed.
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| 17 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:10
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The dude has just under a 4 era with only one season which could be characterized as above good
Pettitte has a career 3.98 ERA in a league that has averaged 4.63 during the time he has played in it. .65 better than the league ERA is nothing to sneeze at. By comparison, Morris beat the league in his era by only .18, 3.90 to 4.08. Palmer beat the league in his era by .72, 2.86 to 3.58.
Further, bili the list you provided is for carrers that match Pettitte's first 8 seasons. This discussion is about potential, so you should provide the list next to that one, similar pitchers by age:
Jack McDowell (934)
Carl Erskine (933)
Dennis Leonard (919)
Mike Mussina (918)
Jack Morris (918)
Freddie Fitzsimmons (914)
Johnny Podres (913)
Scott McGregor (911)
Pat Hentgen (908)
Ramon Martinez (908)
Now, none of them are HOFers either, as most of those guys fell off once they hit 30 or 31, but they are a much more respectable group than the one bili posted. They are also much closer in ability and success to Pettitte to bili's group.
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| 18 | Great One
Donor
ID: 15831310
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:12
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Ok - I hate Pettitte. If he was only as good as that crop - I don't think I would bother to hate him because I wouldn't give a sh!t about him. He has to be closing in on most playoff wins. Isn't that more important then beating the Tigers during the regular season?
If he remains a Yank for the rest of his career and just keeps plodding along at his current rate - he will be in the HOF.
Playoffs are just so much more important. Ask Derek Jeter. Would Jeter make it based on his regular season stats. Probably not. Will he make it because he is the current Co-Mr.October with Pettitte? Yes.
Each one of those rings equals something. 2 rings from an the ace of the staff must equal a Cy Young or two... same idea for Jeter.
Maybe we should compare Andy to his own borderline teammate Moose. I think he is Moose with more rings.
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| 19 | Great One
Donor
ID: 15831310
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:14
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I posted at the same time as MITH - I was referring to post 15's listing.
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| 20 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:27
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Mith, I posted that list, not bili. the similarities by age reveals nothing special, No hall of famers either so that just makes my point even stronger. I just didnt want to bombard the message board with 2 lists.
Great one, again i posted in #16 about Pettitte's post season #s which are really not that good. Does Bernie get into the Hall of Fame because hes had over 100 games to hit 19 HRs in the post season? I dont think so. Pettitte has been at his worst in the World Series with a career ERA over 5. Maybe its because hes not playing the Tigers or the Devil Rays does his ERA rise. Unless you excel like Reggie Jackson, you dont belong in the hall of fame based on Post Season stats (and he got in because of his 500 homers not his post seasons) and you certainly dont belong just because your team makes it to the post season every year so you can put up gawdy statistics because you have so many opportunities to play.
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| 21 | Razor
Donor
ID: 458262214
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:27
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Mussina is a much better pitcher than Pettitte. Mussina has ranked in the top 10 in the AL in park adjusted ERA 8 times. Pettite has only done it twice. Mussina has finished top 10 in Cy Young voting 8 times as well. Pettite has finished top 10 only 3 times.
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| 22 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:28
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Very true about Pettitte's previous post season troubles. He did not perform well in his first two postseason seaies at all. But since 98, he's improved significantly, with 15 out of 21 quality starts in the postseasons '98 to present.
His non quality post season starts since 98:
'98 ALCS gm 3; '99 WS gm 3; '00 ALDS gm 5, '01 WS gm 6; '02 ALDS gm 2; '03 ALCS gm 6.
At least 5 of Morris' 13 career post season games were not pitched well. Palmer's post season record is stellar.
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| 23 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:32
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Mith, I posted that list, not bili. the similarities by age reveals nothing special, No hall of famers either so that just makes my point even stronger.
The two lists are much different. The first one is a list of average pitchers. The second is a list of pitchers that were considered as among the best of their day. That's where Pettitte belongs. That none of them actually made the HOF is irrelevant, since I am not arguing that Pettitte will make the HOF. I will say tho that at age 30, most of those players' names were kicked around as potential HOFers if the years should treat them well.
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| 24 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:33
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and Great one 2 rings from an the ace of the staff must equal a Cy Young or two
Pettitte has never pitched Game 1 of an ALDS (1995-2003) which would seem to me hes never been the ace of any yankee staff. The ALDS is the only series where you have your starting rotation set up.
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| 25 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:36
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If you are still talking about potential of a pitcher who turns 32 next spring, you are delusional. Pettitte is slightly above average. Don't dilute the hall with yankees.
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| 26 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:37
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Further regarding baseball-reference's 'most similar by age' list, with another 21 wins under his belt, that group will become a little more elite this year. Perhaps he will start to slow down like some of the other names on that list and wind up like many of them, but until he does, that list will continue to improve.
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| 27 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:38
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bili
If you are still talking about potential of a pitcher who turns 32 next spring, you are delusional.
I don't understand what you mean here. I am delusional because Pettitte turns 32 next year?
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| 28 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:41
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Mith, 2 of those guys were on my list, including your top guy. And the bottom 3 on your list never had any HOF talk about them.
And 6 post season missteps since 98 is a lot, including a decisive game 5 of a ALDS, a clinching chance for the World Series in 01 and a pivotal game 3 of the 98 LCS. He didnt lose these games 5-4. He got destroyed! And to just ignore the first 3 years of his post season career where he wasnt very good either is ignoring that he hasnt been a good post season pitcher or at least doesnt deserve the accolades hes been getting as a big time pitcher, which ive heard so often of late especially after his game 2 wins this year.
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| 29 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:49
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And 6 post season missteps since 98 is a lot,
I did not say that he had six post season missteps. I was simply counting quality starts. 15 of his 21 post season starts since 1998 were 'quality starts'. That is a good stat, no matter how you look at it.
And to just ignore the first 3 years of his post season career where he wasnt very good either is ignoring that he hasnt been a good post season pitcher or at least doesnt deserve the accolades hes been getting as a big time pitcher, which ive heard so often of late especially after his game 2 wins this year.
Huh? A player's early struggles mus always be considered when assessing his current abilities? Pettitte IS a big time post season pitcher now, regardless of the fact that he wasn't in the past. Sammy Sosa was not a power threat through his first 4 years in MLB, but he improved to one of the best home run hitters in baseball history. But by your standards, saying as much is ignoring 4 seasons that totaled only 41 HR? Please.
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| 30 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 11:53
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No, your not delusional because he turns 32, you are delusional if you expect him to improve going forward. It sounds like you aren't seriously making a case for the HOF, however, so carry on.
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| 31 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 12:04
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People are referencing from his whole career, whether he deserves to be a hall of famer. If he has one great post season, (and i wouldnt even call this post season great considering he came out awful in Game 6 of the ALCS) you cant then conclude hes a great post season pitcher when hes had so many awful ones. Those awful ones include 95-97 and bad games in 98, 00, 01 and 02. I dont know if 70% QS is that good in the post season to be considered a great post season pitcher. All that means is that he gets pummeled 30% of the time and those other 15 games he still might not have pitched well enough to win. I dont think with a career era over 5 in the World Series one can justifiably call Pettitte a big time pitcher. And I dont know how you can use an example like Sosa in this discussion. If pettitte went from Prospect who looked good but didnt strike any one out and then over the next 5 years started striking people out like Randy Johnson its a better analogy, but Pettitte has at least one bad post season start per year. Madduxs post season career is quality start after quality start, no one dares to call him a big time post season player.
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| 32 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 12:18
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Really all im saying is that one of the arguments (and not by you) is that post season pitching matters to get into the hall of fame. Im just saying pettitte has done nothing special in the post season to warrant extra credit to get into the hall. His regular season stats are good, but nothing special. Considering he only came close to the CY Young once (1994) Hes only been a 2 time all star (with his coach making the selections) he should not be a hall of famer. If he continues what he did from the age of 23-32 at 32-41 then sure i guess theres a chance he will make the hall based on his win total, thats the only way i see him getting in.
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| 33 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 12:36
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bili
No, your not delusional because he turns 32, you are delusional if you expect him to improve going forward.
Not sure where you read that I expect him to improve going foward. I've repreatedly said that he's unlikely for the hall. Not sure what's so delusional about that. If anything, the people accusing me of making that claim are delusional.
There are two reasons that I feel improvement for Pettitte is worthy of discussion, but before I go any further, I'll say again that these are not predictions on my part, just exploring the possibility.
a) He's rejuvinated his career since Clemens came to the Yankees and started working with him. His ERA is back down below the league average. He's cut down on his walks, opponent OBP and # of pitches per inning, and has improved his strikeout ratio and winning percentage.
b) He's a lefty - very often lefties are late bloomers and really come into their own around 30 years old.
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Tastethewaste
People are referencing from his whole career, whether he deserves to be a hall of famer.
As his post season record pertains to his HOF eligability, I agree that we must consider his whole career, tho I'll say that having it broken down as Pettitte has where he has shown marked improvement does benefit him so far as that if his poor post season outings were evenly dispersed throughout his career, they would look worse. Similarly if Sosa had 20 HR shaved off his totals from each of the 4 years from 98 to 01 and instead hit 20 extra HR in each of his first 4 seasons, we would have a player with the same career totals, but who never reached the heights at the top of his game that Sosa did. Of course, he'd still be a HOF lock, but would not be quite so revered as he is today.
and i wouldnt even call this post season great considering he came out awful in Game 6 of the ALCS
He didn't come out horrible in gm 6. He allowed 2 hits in the first two and then gave up 4 in the 4th in an inning that included at least one Yankee error that was ruled a hit. He settled down and pitched a strong 4th and 5th, and probably shouldn't have come out of the game.
All that means is that he gets pummeled 30% of the time and those other 15 games he still might not have pitched well enough to win.
Failing to deliver a quality start most certainly does not mean "getting pummeled".
And I dont know how you can use an example like Sosa in this discussion.
Never at any point did I say that Pettitte had shown a career improvement like Sosa's. I simply used him as a very recognizable example of how a player can improve. Citing an example of how a change in trend can occur is by no means akin to claiming that the subject has undergone the same change as the example.
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| 34 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 12:39
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Im just saying pettitte has done nothing special in the post season to warrant extra credit to get into the hall.
I really haven't given that very much thought. Perhaps I'll look at the post season records of some more marginal compilation-type HOF pitchers and see how they compare to Pettitte. My belief is that churning out 70% quality starts is pretty darn good, but I'll look more into it.
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| 35 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 12:40
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If he continues what he did from the age of 23-32 at 32-41 then sure i guess theres a chance he will make the hall based on his win total, thats the only way i see him getting in.
That's pretty much all I've been saying.
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| 36 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 12:56
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Sammy Sosa was not a power threat through his first 4 years in MLB, but he improved to one of the best home run hitters in baseball history. What am i supposed to infer from this sentence? Youre not comparing Sosa's meteoric rise to Hall of Fame Caliber with Andy Pettittes 'meteoric' rise in the post season? Why else would you be using Sammy Sosa if not as a comparative.
Failing to deliver a quality start most certainly does not mean "getting pummeled".
Lets see Pettittes 6 non quality starts.
ALCS 1998, 4.2 innings 6 Runs 8 hits 11.57 ERA.
WS 1999, 3.2 innings 5 Runs 10 hits 12.27 ERA
ALDS 2000 3.2 innings 5 runs 10 Hits 12.27 ERA.
WS 2001 2innings 6 runs 7 hits 27.00 ERA.
ALDS 2002 3 innings 4 runs 8 hits 12.00 ERA
ALCS 2003 5 innings 4 runs 8 hits 7.20 ERA
Thats a pummeling Mith.
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| 37 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:01
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All of them may have been with the exception of game 6 in this year's ALCS. But what you said was I dont know if 70% QS is that good in the post season to be considered a great post season pitcher. All that means is that he gets pummeled 30% of the time
I didn't deny that Pettitte was slapped around in some or most of those, I only pointed out that a non-quality start is not necessesarily a pummelling - which it most certainly isn't.
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| 38 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:06
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What am i supposed to infer from this sentence? Youre not comparing Sosa's meteoric rise to Hall of Fame Caliber with Andy Pettittes 'meteoric' rise in the post season? Why else would you be using Sammy Sosa if not as a comparative.
Well, for one thing, you could have applied the whole paragraph, and not just the sentence. Here it is:
Huh? A player's early struggles mus always be considered when assessing his current abilities? Pettitte IS a big time post season pitcher now, regardless of the fact that he wasn't in the past. Sammy Sosa was not a power threat through his first 4 years in MLB, but he improved to one of the best home run hitters in baseball history. But by your standards, saying as much is ignoring 4 seasons that totaled only 41 HR? Please.
That's not a comparison, it's an easily recognizable example of how a player can improve and how a show of improvement can add to the value of overall stats when taken into consideration.
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| 39 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:15
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Jeeeeez, you noted that 15 out of 21 starts were quality. If we need to talk exacts. 6/21 is 28.6% of the time out during his "great post season years" he is not pitching a quality start. Out of those 6 starts 5 of them or 23.8% were absolute shellings. Only this year he hasnt been shelled and of course he still has one game to go this post season. So out of his non quality start performances hes been 'pummeled' 83.3% of the time And he didnt pitch great in that game 6 against the redsox (though admittedly, not a normal andy pettitte shelling, his era was under 8!). So he gets absolutely shelled 23.8% of the time since the time he has become a great post season pitcher according to you(1998-2003). Find me another great post season pitcher who gets shelled nearly 1/4 of the time in the post season who is referred as a big time post season pitcher. Also find me another big time post season pitcher who has never started a game 1 of the first series of the post season. He doesnt have Koufax in front of him, hes had Aneurysm Cone (2X) El Duque, Wells, Clemens, Mussina. If he's so big time why cant he seem to be the pitcher who gets the ball in Game 1.
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| 40 | Mattinglyinthehall
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ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:23
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He doesnt have Koufax in front of him, hes had Aneurysm Cone (2X) El Duque, Wells, Clemens, Mussina. If he's so big time why cant he seem to be the pitcher who gets the ball in Game 1.
This argument has no merit. In series started at home, Torre tries to line up home starts for Pettitte, because he is much more effective in NY. The fact that his manager has typically opted to go with other starters in game one of the LDS has nothing to do with whether he is a big game starter in the post season.
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| 41 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:26
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And just to clarify, i wasnt talking in general a non quality start is a pummeling, i was noting that Andy pettittes non quality starts in post season play have been pummellings. Can you at least give me that. Or at least give me 5/6.
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| 42 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:29
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1) From 1995-2003 what LDS have they started on the road? If he can start game 2 then he can start game 1.
2) If you are an ace of a pitching staff, you start game 1.
3) If he starts game 1 and hes a big time post season pitcher you get him in Game 5 as well. Thats where you want your big time post season pitchers.
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| 43 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:42
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If you are an ace of a pitching staff, you start game 1.
The Yankees have always had 3 or more aces. This is a pointless argument.
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| 44 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:47
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Like i said these guys who get the nod before him are not sandy koufax. In your argument you said torre wants to give pettitte a home start. Yet in 9 ALDS Pettitte has never started game 1 all at home if im not mistaken which means to me hes never been the best pitcher on his team. Thats hardly pointless considering the argument is whether he should be in the hall of fame or not. and the aces who do start game 1, only 1 is a hall of famer and that one is 40 years old. I dont think that argument is irrelevant. And i do believe ive disproved the fact that hes a big game pitcher since you havent answered that question about another big time post season player whos been blasted out of 1/4 of his games.
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| 45 | Great One
Donor
ID: 15831310
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:54
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How many clinching games has Andy pitched well in? that seems like more of an indication of how much of a pressure pitcher he is. Game 1 is irrelevant. Game 7's are not.
And I do have a feeling he has many good years left in that lefty arm of his. For some reason he reminds me of Leiter who just got better and better every year once he really learned how to pitch. Leiter went from bad/medicore to good - Pettitte could go from good to even better.
Hmm... I could sure picture Pettitte in a Mets uniform... ahh... He would do pretty good in that pitchers park I would bet.
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| 46 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 13:59
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In time. I'm at work so you'll have to ease your demands that I produce research results in short order. We'll see what I come up with. One thing I forgot to note earlier, Greg Maddux has most certainly been called a clutch playoff performer.
Consider that some of the credit Pettitte gets are from the performances themselves, and not just their frequency. His game 2 WS start the other day was phenominal, coming at a time when the world was saying that the Yankees biggest liability at the time was that their bulpen was not rested. Coming in and pitching a complete game and allowing 0 earned runs was beyond huge. That's the stuff the gets you the title of big game pitcher.
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| 47 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 14:02
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Great one, if you look up at post 36, you can see the last 3 times and i think the only 3 times hes had a chance to bring his team to a next series or be the world series champs he has not pitched well as all 3 of those starts were not quality starts. Game 6 of the ALCS this year. Game 6 of the 2001 World Series and Game 5 of the ALDS in 2000 against the A's which the yankees won because they scored the first 6 runs but pettitte was gone after 3 innings. The ALCS in 1996 he pitched game 5 for the victory to send them to the world series, and pitched well. This is allegedly before he became a good post season pitcher. IN 1997 he was on the mound for game 5 against the indians and lost. He gave up 4 runs in the first 4 innings in a 4-3 loss. And 2000 game 5 he pitched a good game in getting a no decision in the World Series clincher against the mets. Thats all the clinching games, doesnt sound too clutch to me.
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| 48 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 14:07
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Greg Maddux has most certainly been called a clutch playoff performer.
Thats a joke right. All ive ever heard dating back to 1989 was Maddux cant seem to win the big one. Just like Randy Johnson before 2001. He cant win the big game, something happens to maddux in the post season. ON and on and on. And the scary thing is his stats are not bad, except the win total. But ive never heard anyone say maddux has gotten it done in the post season and is a big time performer in the post season. Granted, ive heard people say he is one of the best pitchers of our generation, but come on now Mith. Playoff performer Maddux has never been called.
As for dodging my question i just thought you were ignoring it and moving on calling my next argument irrelevant and changing the subject, i didnt know you were gonna research and get back to me. Sorry for the accusation.
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| 49 | Razor
Donor
ID: 458262214
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 14:14
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Pitching in Game 7 can be a function of how well rested your pitchers are. Pitching in Game 1 of the opening round, usually, is a function of how good you are. Pettite has been the best pitcher on his own team twice, and one of those years they had a lousy staff. Pettite was a very good pitcher for the first two years of his career. Now he's just pretty good. I don't see him returning to the 1996-97 levels either, so projecting based on data inclusive of those seasons would be faulty.
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| 50 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 14:24
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Agreed Razor, which is why i made that point more than a few times that hes never even started a game 1 when the whole staff was rested. This would mean even if hes the best pitcher on the staff Torre elected to go with someone else. Mith deemed this point irrelevant.
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| 51 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 14:59
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Pitchers that are named on the web as "big game pitchers"
Mets' big-game pitcher falls short
Al Leiter 15 post season starts: 1-3 4.49 era. 5 non-quality starts
This article debates whether Mussina is a big game pitcher.
Mussina before 2003: 4-2 2.93era with 3 of his 11 starts being non-quality. Factor in his starts this year (the article was written after this years ALCS) and he is clearly less favorable than Pettitte since 98.
"I believe in big-game pitchers and big-game players," Baker was saying before the Cubs met the Atlanta Braves. "There are some guys that love being in that situation, some guys that pretend they love being in that situation."
Wood had pitched in exactly 1 playoff game when that was written. 5 innings, 3 hits, 4 bbs, 5k, 1er. He got the loss.
Ford was Casey Stengel's designated big game pitcher
Ford 22 WS games: 10-8 2.71era. Whitey had at least 5 non-quality starts. Note that I don't know where to get boxscores for old WS games, so I'm going by the line scores. I'm counting any game that had 4 runs or more scored against thru the first 6 innings as a non-quality start.
Clemens had already proven himself as a big-game pitcher
Clemens - 26 Post season appearances (thru '02 6-6 3.46) at least 7 non-quality starts.
Barry Zito first earned a reputation as a big-game pitcher during his rookie season in 2000.
Zito 5 postseason games. 3-2 2.28. Looks like 1 non-quality start.
I don't have time to continue.
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| 52 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 15:28
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hmmmm, where to start, i guess the top of the list
Leiter from your article...Although Leiter did pick up a World Series win in relief as a member of the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays, he has made 11 postseason starts in his career and hasn't won any of them.
Well i wouldnt call him a big game pitcher then, 0 for 11 in trying to get a win in the post season?
Zito, 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA? That sounds pretty good to me. Consider hed be 4-1 if Jasons brother learns how to slide and how is that not a big time performer? 1 non quality start is a small sample but thats 80% quality. And what was the non quality start Game 5 of this years ALDS? On 3 days rest. And this article was written before these playoffs so that non quality start is not a valid point and the title of the article is Zitos lost his Cy Young touch. How can you say someone is a big time performer in the post season when your team has never won a post season series?
Clemens prior to game 4 of the 1999 World Series was much maligned like Dwight Gooden, Randy Johnson, and Greg Maddux as a person who couldnt get the job done in the post season. Especially after getting rocked by the Sox in the 1999 ALCS. Only recently, the 2000 one hitter against the mariners, the piazza bat chucking incident and your article agrees with me.
Kerry Wood-1 post season effort when that was written and they are already calling him a big time pitcher?
Im too young to defend or argue whitey ford. Legend has it he was great. 17-22 in quality starts is pretty good and the ERA is fantastic. Makes you think those 5 non quality starts he didnt get massacred like pettitte.
And the NY post link isnt even sure if Mussina is a big game pitcher or not.
Regardless all this shows is how cliche the words big game pitcher are. With the exception of Whitey Ford who i admittedly know little about, i couldnt defend any of these pitchers as big game pitchers, and that includes Clemens who wasnt awful early on in his career but wasnt great and couldnt win. Also with the exception of whitey and clemens none of these pitchers are getting in the hall of fame. And clemens isnt getting in on post season merit. And how many of those non quality starts came after the 1999 post season. IF you get a pass on pettittes first 3 seasons then doesnt Clemens get a pass until he became a yankee?
Also none of these pitchers have a worse percentage in quality starts with the exception of Al Leiter who isnt that good and has no post season wins. Just because youre an ace of a staff doesnt mean you are a big time pitcher.
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| 53 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 15:36
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Bottom line is i dont see any of these pitchers as good examples with the exception of Whitey Ford. If I knew your research was gonna be google "Big Game Pitchers" I wouldnt have asked. But what they also mean in Whiteys case was that he was the Yankee ace. And your article goes on to say that he never even pitched a decisive game 7. So how can he be the big time pitcher. I would think in those days, the pitcher pitches on 3 days rest so whitey should have been pitching games 1, 4, and 7. So why didnt Casey pitch whitey during the big games.
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| 54 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 15:48
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And your article goes on to say that he never even pitched a decisive game 7. So how can he be the big time pitcher.
Based on that, I'm not sure if there has ever been a big game pitcher in the history of baseball by your standards.
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| 55 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 15:57
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Well im saying whitey was a big time pitcher, im also saying zito has proved himself to be a very good pitcher in the post season in what little experience he has. Wood has almost no experience in the post season and by his own admission he choked in game 7 this year. That doesnt sound like a big game pitcher. Mussina has pitched well in the post season including this years game 7 out of the bullpen, i dont really know if hes a big game pitcher though i know he doesnt seem to get any run support when he does pitch. Leiter is not a big game pitcher. He might go out there and give gutsy performances but to go 0-11 in post season starts means he either is extremely unlucky or cant win the big one. And Pettitte is a good pitcher, not a great pitcher. He has good games, great games, like game 5 of the 96 series and awful games like all the aforementioned in this thread. All in all including this year he is 13-7 with a 4.16 ERA. Before this year he was 10-7 with an ERA of 4.49. Those are respectable numbers but not big time #s. If anything he is inconsistent as you dont know which pettitte will show up. He is good for 2 Starts, maybe 1 great start and definitely one awful start per post season, and that is not a big game pitcher in my book.
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| 56 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:02
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I won't defend or stand by any of the arrticles I presented. But I really don't see a better way to approach your challenge without spending hours and hours on it. I *believe* that Ford is considered one of the great big-game pitchers of all time. Assuming that's true, only one fewer non-quality start in one more playoff game is not a huge difference, and I've most certainly never heard anyone refer to Pettitte as one of the all time greats in this area. I agree the big-game term does get thrown around a bit, tho I am still of the impression that Pettitte today is worthy of it.
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| 57 | Rabid Chickens
ID: 3281648
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:07
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Sorry to butt in, but just found it a good discussion. Here is one guy that was a pertty good "big game" pitcher, but he even lost a decisive game 7 in 1968. Pretty amazing looking at Gibson's stats that he had 9 starts and 81 innings pitched, don't see that much anymore, especially considering he was probably going on 3 days rest in games 4 and 7 of those series. We probably wouldn't be hearing much about any curses in Boston if it hadn't been for Gibson is '67
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| 58 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:22
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Right, well if you cant defend the articles you presented to back up your case then why present them. I wouldve waited for a better research tool.
I would assume Bob Gibson, Koufax have excelled in the post season too. Gibson 7-2 1.89 ERA in the post season. Gibson was the Cards go to guy. He imposed fear in opposing hitters. I consider him a big game pitcher. Koufax had only a 4-3 record but a 0.95 ERA Thats a big game pitcher.. Mariano is going to the hall of fame based on his post season stats. He is a big time pitcher. Hershiser had an incredibel 1988 post season but never really could replicate it, of course he didnt see the post season again until 1995 and he had lost it a little, so he loses points because he missed the post season in his prime except for that 1 year in which he struck fear in the Mets and the A's and was unhittable. Same with Randy Johnson who had 2 great post seasons in 1995 and 2001 but of course he had 97-99 and 2002 which werent good post seasons for him. I would equate the term big game pitcher with one who excels in the post season. Most of these guys fit the bill. Pettitte is hard to compare to some of these guys because hes been there so often. Like i said, he is no randy johnson or orel hershiser and not even close to gibson or koufax. Hes a good pitcher who does well sometimes and not well others. When hes on the mound me as the viewer doesnt say oh man the Marlins are dead tonight pettittes in, like i would if Johnson was in there or Hershiser. I guess thats my point. Hes good but nothing special enough to warrant big game pitcher status.
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| 59 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:24
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And rabid chickens. gibson lost game 7 in 68 because curt flood misjudged a fly ball, its not like he gave up 6 runs in 2 innings like pettitte has.
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| 60 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 1629107
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:28
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Lets look at some contemporary leaders in post season innings (best way to get starters from baseball-reference.com's list) to see how Andy compares:
Glavine
32 starts - 8 non-quality starts - favorable
Smoltz (thru '99)
26 starts - 5 non-quality - not favorable
Maddux
30 starts - 5 non-quality - not favorable
Ran out of time again. I was also going to dig up Dave Stewart and Orel Hershiser. At a quick glance, Pettitte doesn't look like he'll match up favorably with Stewart, but he does look good compared to Hershiser.
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| 61 | Tastethewaste
ID: 418201314
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:34
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right, but not the 88 hershiser. the 95-99 Hershiser. Pettitte has never had the kind of success that Orel had in that one season.
I was thinking about it just now, and its funny because i havent heard one yankee pitcher on this dynasty team who is not a big game pitcher with the exception of Kenny Rogers. El Duque was considered to be at his best in the postseason, Wells is a big game pitcher, Cone, Clemens apparently now, and now the Post is debating about Mussina and of course Pettitte. I guess Irabu falls in the Weaver category of incomplete. I think Pettitte has the highest post season era out of all those guys, im not gonna look into quality starts.
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| 62 | Mattinglyinthehall
Sustainer
ID: 217351118
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 18:11
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Tastethewaste, I'm sure you attribute that to the media's playing up of Yankee players, and I suppose it is true at least to an extent. But NYY general management goes after guys like Cone and Wells and Clemens and Moose for the mettle they see in them. These Yankees are built to win championships.
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| 63 | Razor
Donor
ID: 190612
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 19:13
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Glavine is pretty clearly a superior postseason pitcher to Pettitte. His overall postseason ERA is nearly a full run lower and his World Series ERA is nearly 3 runs lower.
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| 64 | Taste the Waste
ID: 301031222
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 19:28
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Pettittes career post season record is 13-7 with a 4.16 ERA. His average season is 17-9 with a 3.93 ERA. So if you factor in that hes playing the best competition in baseball his ERA should be a little higher and his record depending on his run support should be a little worse. It is in both cases. Therefore i see nothing that indicates he 'rises to the occassion' in the playoffs. He's just as good in the post season as he is in the playoffs and thats nice, but he isn't lights out or suddenly Cy Young when he reaches the post season. He's good. Above the league average, but not so far above that he deserves extra accolades for his post season accomplishments. That he's been bombed at least once per post season doesnt help his case either, it means he's not a lock to go out there and give you a solid performance.
Again, as for the Hall of Fame, i think we agree if he keeps up this pace for another 9 years (which i find unlikely) He will make the hall of fame. An ERA a little better than the league average alone wont do it, but if he duplicates what he did from 1995-2003 he will have 298 wins in an era where it is a lot harder to get that many wins in a career. I dont think theres any other way he can get into the hall.
Media Bias in New York? I dont care about that. These guys have to live up to the hype and obviously they do or else they wouldnt have gotten to the world series 6 times and winning 4 and maybe a 5th this year. The fact remains that Pettitte might be the worst big game pitcher out of all those mentioned: Cone, Hernandez, Wells, Clemens, Mussina. Only Clemens is going to the hall of fame and his post season has nothing to do with that.
Lets Go Wells tonight, we need a big time performance from him tonight. So Pettitte can have one more chance to clinch a series:)
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