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Subject: ESPN's top 50 fantasy picks for 2004
Posted by: Mattinglyinthehall
- Leader [1629107] Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 11:56
Link 1. Alex Rodriguez Surprise! Was only No. 7 on player rater
2. Alfonso Soriano 40-40 guy at middle infield? Absolutely!
3. Albert Pujols Durable, consistent masher; no 3B now
4. Vlad Guerrero Angels? Fine, but he might stop running
5. Todd Helton Not exactly a bad off year; buy now
6. Barry Bonds HR, .350 average, not much in RBI
7. Sammy Sosa Gets back to 50 HR, 120 RBI this year
8. N. Garciaparra Axe to grind? Let's see a batting title
9. Mark Prior Yes, the top SP. How bout 300 Ks?
10. Randy Johnson Hey, he was No. 2 overall pick in 2003
11. Manny Ramirez Remember, misses games, but still hits
12. Carlos Beltran No longer overlooked; definite 30-30
13. Gary Sheffield Should hit 40, knock in ton of runs
14. Pedro Martinez Last topped 30 starts in 1998; can win 20
15. Mag. Ordonez Off year, but young enough to rebound
16. Miguel Tejada Nice new park, new lineup protection
17. Derek Jeter Entering prime, is more power coming?
18. Jason Schmidt Defending Player Rater champ, but...
19. Curt Schilling With 35 starts, would top Pedro
20. Jim Thome Maybe this year he can knock in 150
21. Preston Wilson None of it was a fluke; MVP stats
22. Roy Halladay Young, dominant, 41 wins in 2 years
23. Mike Piazza Think positive! Health, and 40 HR
24. Lance Berkman No. 16 in 2003 preseason, still young
25. Bret Boone No letup in sight, and he runs a bit
26. Eric Chavez OK, but why isn't he a lock for 35 HR?
27. Carlos Delgado AL's Jim Thome should produce again
28. Edgar Renteria Same stats as Ichiro, plays shortstop
29. Scott Rolen Nothing wrong with some consistency
30. Ichiro Suzuki More power, less speed and average
31. Mike Mussina Yanks ace capable of wining 20, 200 Ks
32. Eric Gagne Truly incredible stats, ERA drop coming
33. Brian Giles Nice Padre lineup, he'll be terrific again
34. Jorge Posada Only because 30-100 catcher is special
35. Mike Lowell Figure he can knock in 120 in full year
36. Jason Giambi Oh, how we forget; top 10 pre-2003
37. Ivan Rodriguez Nothing wrong here, except durability
38. Javier Vazquez More wins as Yank, otherwise same
39. Rafael Furcal Look, a SS who does this is valuable
40. Vernon Wells Great season, but OFs are out there
41. Juan Pierre Takes care of your steals, average
42. Bobby Abreu Let's assume 30-30 isn't outta reach
43. Javy Lopez Let's assume 43 HR isn't outta reach
44. Kevin Brown Please, don't make us look foolish again
45. Jeff Kent At 2B, he's No. 3; in OF, he's ho hum
46. Tim Hudson Safe starter; where's Zito and Mulder?
47. Kerry Wood Top 14 wins once, then we'll talk
48. Jose Reyes Think 15 HR, 40 steals, 100 runs - maybe
49. Derrek Lee Beats out Sexson for the 20 steals
50. Josh Beckett World Series hero, no more blisters
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| 1 | Perm Dude
Dude
ID: 30792616
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 12:12
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Good picks--Soriano has the ability to be the #1 guy, or to drop off the list. He'll be interesting to watch.
Overall, pretty safe picks top to bottom, with some guys probably higher than they should be (RJ, Piazza, Jeter). Only one reliever though? Where's Smoltz? Hoffman?
I think they should have taken some more chances, with guys like Victor Martinez, Sidney Ponson, Nevin, or taken some other guys (like Colon or Garrett Anderson) over their own question marks.
pd
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| 2 | Mattinglyinthehall
Leader
ID: 1629107
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 12:17
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In a 12 team league, this is only 4 complete rounds + 2 more picks. I agree with you on Anderson, I might rank him ahead of Giles and Abreu, certainly right in with those guys. But I wouldn't consider Victor Martinez, Sidney Ponson or Nevin at that stage in the draft.
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| 3 | Perm Dude
Dude
ID: 30792616
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 12:22
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In a keeper league I would. There just aren't many good offensive catchers.
pd
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| 4 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 13:39
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I'm screwed in my 10-team keeper league with Guru. We only keep four, and I have.....
Manny (11)
Pedro (14)
Tejada (16)
Halladay (22)
Piazza (23 - late season acquisition for me)
Ichiro (30)
....to choose from. I guess it's a nice problem to have, but geeez what to do. With a gun to my head I'd probably keep Pedro, Tejada, Halladay and either Piazza or Manny. Tough call.
Interesting list for sure though.
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| 5 | Mike D
Sustainer
ID: 41831612
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 13:43
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It is a tough call. I hate Piazza and wouldn't keep him. He IS changing positions, or might be, or might be hurt, or whatever.
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| 6 | wiggs
ID: 211116514
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 13:44
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species, maybe you can trade 1 for a top draft pick or 2.
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| 7 | Tree
Donor
ID: 599393013
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 14:04
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i know the tough time you're having. i'm a league where we get four keepers.
i've got:
Pujols (3)
Sosa (6)
Wells (40)
Reyes (48)
Lee (49)
Beckett (50)
plus Garrett Anderson *and* i traded Beltran for draft picks!
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| 8 | beastiemiked
ID: 2601988
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 14:26
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Too high:
Barry Bonds - If OBP% is a category he's probably top 3, but it's not. He gives excellent hr and avg numbers but only good RBI and run numbers. His walks kill his roto potential.
Derek Jeter - Has always been overrated. He was injured last year but still got 450+ ab's and put up mediocre numbers.
Randy Johnson - Last year he proved he was mortal. No way would I spend a 1st round pick on a him.
Mike Piazza - He's 35, hasn't hit 40 hr's since 1999. Whoever ranked him this high is delusional.
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| 9 | Chuck
ID: 5610253017
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 14:58
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Some players get drafted higher than they deserve based on past reputation or name recognition.
Players that may fall into this category:
Piazza
Kent
Bonds
Jeter
This list seems really light on pitchers. Only 13 in the top 50. Good luck getting Wood @ pick 47. Lowest I saw him fall so far was pick 33 in a 10 team keeper. Here is ESPN's list of pitchers:
9. Mark Prior
10. Randy Johnson
14. Pedro Martinez
18. Jason Schmidt
19. Curt Schilling
22. Roy Halladay
31. Mike Mussina
32. Eric Gagne
38. Javier Vazquez
44. Kevin Brown
46. Tim Hudson
47. Kerry Wood
50. Josh Beckett
As mentioned before, no Smoltz or Hoffman. An incomplete list of other pitchers that I've seen go top 50 (no particular order):
Smoltz
Hoffman
Zito
Mulder
Morris
Wagner
Colon
Pettite
Santana
Additional in the top 75:
Foulke
Wagner
Rivera
Maddux
Nomo
Zambrano
Guardado
Wolf
Again, I'm not saying that every one of these picks was warranted, but it seems to me that more than 13 pitchers should make the top 50.
To play that out, that means that through 4 rounds of the Lucky 13 draft, each team would have an average of one pitcher. I guess it's possible, but I do not see that happening.
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| 10 | Mattinglyinthehall
Leader
ID: 1629107
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 15:07
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This list seems really light on pitchers. Only 13 in the top 50. Good luck getting Wood @ pick 47. Lowest I saw him fall so far was pick 33 in a 10 team keeper.
Here's what Karabell says about that:Pitching counts, too! Yes, it certainly does, but take a look back at ESPN 2003 preseason drafts for advice. Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez were all top 7. Barry Zito and Roy Oswalt were top 20. You're taking some risk with starting pitchers, and we've backed off a bit this year. Certainly Johnson isn't done yet, despite his truncated season. Mark Prior gets our nod, but even he might miss some starts. Be prepared.
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| 11 | Tree
Donor
ID: 599393013
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 15:12
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the whole pitcher thing i think is an issue of personal philosphy. i tend not to take a pitcher too early, because i just dont trust them. it's that simple, for me at lease.
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| 12 | Perm Dude
Dude
ID: 30792616
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 15:13
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That sounds like an excuse for overdoing it last year--making this year's list a reaction to last year's. It should actually reflect next season's top picks, no? So the inability to pick more pitchers reveals a timidity on their part for having gone with the crowd last year.
pd
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| 13 | Mattinglyinthehall
Leader
ID: 1629107
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 15:30
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Agreed, PD. With the diminsihed status of RJ, Pedro, Oswalt and others, I see no issue with not including a pitcher until Prior at #9. The problem appears to be a series of oversights that follow Halliday at #22, the 5th SP on the list. Last year's list had Hudson as the 6th starter on the list at #25.
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| 14 | beastiemiked
ID: 2601988
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 16:10
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Derrick Lee at 49? He's got to realize that Lee is not going to get those stolen base numbers in Chicago. He'll be lucky to get 15 attempts.
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| 15 | Tree
Donor
ID: 599393013
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 16:31
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i disagree. i bet Lee runs more. he essentially stopped running when McKeon came aboard. Baker will probably give him the green light.
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| 16 | Mattinglyinthehall
Leader
ID: 1629107
Fri, Jan 16, 2004, 16:46
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I agree with Tree. Is Baker philosophically opposed to stealing or something? Lofton came to the Cubs after stealing 18 bases in 58 games with Pittsburgh and stole 12 more in 39 games as a Cub - about the same ratio. Goodwin stole 19 bases in only 87 games and Patterson stole 16 in 83. Besides that, look at Lee's home/Away splits. Florida is a pitcher's park where Lee hit only 11 of his 31 HR 9 of his 31 doubles and batted .242 - as opposed to .297 on the road. Lee's road OPS was .979. In my opinion, he beats Sexson because Sexson's numbers have fluxuated considerably throughout his career. Lee has steadily improved his production year after year and is now moving out of a pitcher's park and into a better lineup.
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| 17 | The Great One
ID: 91133420
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 07:36
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Would any of those bottom 11 go before Barry Zito in ANY draft?
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| 18 | Khahan
ID: 5044129
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 07:50
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Great One, I would take Kerry Wood before Zito.
I would also probably take Hudson, Brown, or Vernon Wells first.
In fact, in the mock draft we are doing right now, Zito was the 8th pick in round 4 (13 person draft) making him the 47th overall pick.
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| 19 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 08:02
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Kerry Wood should go before Zito. I also like Beckett and Hudson over him, too, but those three are very close. But those three are very close.
............
It's probably an unpopular opinion, but I personally don't think that Vernon Wells, Juan Pierre or Ichiro belongs in the top 50.
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| 20 | Khahan
ID: 5044129
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 08:20
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After last season, Vernon Wells certainly deserves some respect, MITH. In yahoo last season, he was ranked 19th overall at the end of the season. 33 HR, 118 Runs, 117 RBi and a .317 BA.
Those #'s certainly warrant more than a #40 ranking. But to an extent I do agree with you. I'd like to see him put those numbers up another year or two before I consider him much higher than where he is right now.
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| 21 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 08:48
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I went and checked the numbers before I typed that. He's near the top of second tier OF list IMO, behind Garrett Anderson. IMO, there are just too many similar producing 2nd tier OF out there to rank any of them that high. After only one season of producing at that level, I don't believe he is all that much more valuable than Carlos Lee or Luis Gonzalez.
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| 22 | blue hen
ID: 27048221
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 15:20
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Juan Pierre and Ichiro are so high because of stolen bases, not talent. They are worth far more in roto than any other system.
And no, I probably wouldn't draft Barry Zito before most of those guys.
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| 23 | The Great One
ID: 91133420
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 22:22
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Wow. I have to say I am pretty surprised, but seeing as I am outnumbered, there must be something I am missing.
Zito over his first three full seasons has 54 wins and 25 losses for an average season of 18-8 and has a career ERA of 3.12 and has made 35 starts each season.
Wood has never won more than 14 games and doesn't have one season with a better ERA than 3.20. He has also only made 30 starts two times in the six years since he made his debut.
Wood obviously has a big edge in K's (about 60 more per season), but Zito has a slight edge in WHIP.
I figure K's is the reason everyone gives Wood the edge, but everything else seems to favor Zito, especially when you consider health.
But like I said, seeing as I am vastly outnumbered,.........
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| 24 | Khahan
ID: 5044129
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 22:48
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TGO, don't hold Woods W/L record against him:
I had Wood on a number of rosters last year.
I noticed that he suffers from extremely poor run support.
His record last year was 14-11.
His first loss was a 2-0 loss, he gave up 2 ER.
Next he got lit up for 5 runs in a loss to Pitt.
His 3rd loss (get this). He pitched 7 innings, gave up 1 run. The cubs lost 10-0.
His next 5 losses, spread out over 2 months, he gets hit pretty hard in each loss.
Then comes a 7 inning, 2 run performance by Wood which the Cubs lose 3-1.
Then comes a 7 inning, 1 run performance by Wood which the Cubs lose 2-0.
..
3 of his losses occurred when the Cubs got shut out. Another one occurred when they Cubs only scored 1 run. Aside from those 4 games, he had 2 other games in which he gave up 1 or fewer runs and got a no decision and 3 other games in which he gave up 3 or fewer runs and got a no decision.
With the slightest change of luck, his record is 20-7 (not even converting the 3 ER no decisions he got, just the games in which he gave up 2 or fewer runs).
The difference in records between Zito and Wood last season was run support.
Looking ahead at 2004, which team has the better chance at providing run support?
The team that lost Miguel Tejeda or a team that has added Derek Lee among others?
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| 25 | The Great One
ID: 91133420
Sat, Jan 17, 2004, 23:36
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The A's scored 40 more runs than the Cubslast season. I don't know any equasion for the difference in AL/NL, but I would say that is similar in terms of production.
I'm not going to pretend to know what each team's offense will do this year, but it certainly seems to me that Zito is the more consistant performer.
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| 26 | beastiemiked
ID: 6117323
Sun, Jan 18, 2004, 11:37
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Had Juan Pierre in my gurupie league with 19 other gurupies. My team had a total of 108 SB's, good enough for 3rd in the league in that category. Without Pierre's 65 SB's my team would've been 19th. I would love to be able to participate in a draft where he's not drafted in the top 50 because any lower than that and he's a steal.
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| 27 | blue hen
ID: 27048221
Sun, Jan 18, 2004, 13:22
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The deeper the league, the more valuable guys like Pierre are. But if you had Ichiro and Furcal, for example, there's not as much need for Pierre.
As for Wood/Zito, I agree that Zito's numbers have been better in the past, but look at pitchers with high strikeout rates. They are ALL at least somewhat successful, from Bret Saberhagen to Larry Dierker to J.R. Richard. Next, look at pitchers with declining strikeout rates, especially if they are declining as fast as Zito. Many of them go down quickly, and are never as good again. It's historical precedent and you can't ignore it.
Zito is a good pitcher and there are pitchers in that group that are Hall of Famers. But there are also flameouts, so beware. I'd take Wood over Zito in just about any situation for 2004.
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| 28 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Wed, Jan 21, 2004, 19:21
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Following up on my post #4 -- I forgot Carlos Delgado in my list of possible keepers. I'm not even jewish, but OY VEY!
I agree with hen.....Zito's numbers are DEFINITELY a concern. He just couldn't get big outs when he needed to last year. I would definitely rank Zito below Wood this year and knock him down my draft list.
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| 29 | Perm Dude
ID: 2343587
Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 12:39
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BUTTer. Found this to be interesting from the pre-season.
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