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0 Subject: RIBC - Draft rationales, Rounds 11-15

Posted by: Guru
- [2524958] Tue, Mar 09, 2004, 21:27

Continuing with round 11 (161st pick)

Rounds 1-5     Rounds 6-10
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34beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 09:36
12.15 Pat Burrell, OF, PHI

Last year he was terrible. Quite possibly the biggest fantasy disappointment of 2003. There is no way he duplicates his numbers from last year, either they go up or he loses his starting job. I'm hoping for numbers from his 2002 campaign but I'll be happy with numbers similar to his 2001 season. He should provide solid RBI and run contributions while not helping or hurting OBP or SLG. He also has the potential to have a monster season which is pretty good risk/reward during this part of the draft. I was really looking at Griffey Jr. here as well but his inability to play an injury free season is what scared me off.
35Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 48927711
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:36
12.16 Danys Baez, P, TB
I hadn't intentionally been avoiding closers ups to this point. Several times I'd debated picking one or had been planning on drafting a particular closer only to see him snatched a couple of picks before me. I guess it came down to always deciding that there was a potentially more valuable player available. That was probably the case this time around, but I felt I needed to get a guy who seemed to have a good lock on the closer position before they were all gone. Baez has had some relative success as a closer before and I would think the Devil Rays should get a few wins this year. Admittedly, I can't say I follow them too closely, but they've got a core nucleus of good young offensive players that should be able to consistently put up runs and hopefully outscore their opponents on occasion.
36Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 48927711
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:38
13.01 Ken Griffey, Jr; OF; Cin

This time around I started taking some risks - first Baez and now Junior. In the RIBC hoops qualifying league I took the perenially injured Vince Carter and that has turned out pretty well for me, and like I said then you don't win these leagues without taking some risks. Griffey still continues to put up awesome (for the 13th round) percentages when he's in the lineup. I'll probably have to pick an extra OF later to back him up, but if he could make it in 130 games or so, I'll be happy.
37beastiemiked
      ID: 2601988
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:55
13.02 Brett Myers, SP, PHI

I went with the best available SP here. Myers has a ton of potential and he showed it during the first half of the season last year. He faded towards the end but hopefully with a full season under his belt his numbers will improve. He plays for a good team which should help his win totals.
38Tosh
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 10:59
13.03 Brian Lawrence, P, SD

I decided to add a pitcher to my staff, and wanted to select one that does more good than harm, and narrowed my search to Lawrence and Freddy Garcia. Even as a die-hard Mariner fan, I could not muster the strength to select Freddy. Lawrence is good enough to have been named the opening day starter for San Diego, and finished strong last season ( a 5-2 record and 2.66 ERA in his final 10 starts). In 5-6 more draft picks, we'll be drafting scrubs, so the 200+ innings he'll give me will be useful.

39Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 1629107
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 11:02
13.04 Felix Rodriguez - P – SF

Felix was not the most talented setup man available by any standards, but what he does have going for him is that he happens to be a potential closer-in-waiting on a playoff contender that currently employs Robb Nen. Even if Nen stays healthy enough to keep his job all season (and to his credit, there has only been good news for him so far this spring), it is reasonable to assume that he still might not be able to carry the regular workload of a full-time closer, especially in the early going. Hopes for an improved ERA and WHIP and a minimum of 10 saves for Felix seem reasonable, assuming his new two-seam sinker that has been breaking bats this spring serves him well in the regular season.
40blue hen
      ID: 4300290
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 13:50
13.05 Alex Sanchez, OF, DET

I felt the need... the need... for speed. I'd say Alex Sanchez has as good a shot as anyone to lead the Majors in stolen bases in 2004. In my own humble opinion, I like his chances even better than Juan Pierre's. Species did some math with Dave Roberts, and I agree - I don't think Sanchez will bring my OBP or SLG down as far as his steals will bring me up in that department. The revamped Tiger lineup should also help his runs scored. In the 13th round, Sanchez is great. Although we've got many more rounds to go, I really feel like Sanchez is the last pick representing my "core" - everyone else is just trying not to lose, rather than trying to win. With that knowledge, I feel that I'm in good shape.
41smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 14:22
13.06 Rocky Biddle, RP, MON
I did not think one reliever would be enough to keep me competitive in the saves catagory. The relievers left now all seemed to come with question marks. Health, competition, ability or whatever. Biddle was quite effective for the first half of last season, but had a very difficult August. That knowledge, and going in a declared closer should give him cause to go back to his first half form. As an Expos fan, I am hoping they will have a team that will hang aroud the .500 mark (75-80 wins). He is no big help in any other category except saves but if he gave me 20-25 saves, he will have done his job here.
42smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 14:23
13.07 Melvin Mora, OF, BAL
Mora’s only current position is OF, but that will change after 15 games at 3rd base. This will provide me with flexibility. He will be able to fill my need for a 4th outfielder or for a CI. With such a short bench, I think its important to have some flexibility to your lineup. Mora should provide nice %s, particularly the OBP%, and also contribute in the SB cat.
43smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 14:27
13.08 Jarod Washburn, OF, OAK

Will Washburn return to his 2002 form, or will he have a medicore season similar to 2003? Well, I needed another SP and with a stronger offense and ___ (placeholder) I hope that he somewhat recovers. All in all, a line of 13 124 206 3.91 1.24 is within reach and is something that I'll be very happy with.
44J
      Leader
      ID: 49346417
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 18:05
13.09 Edgardo Alfonzo - 3B - SF

I've always like Alfonzo and wish the Mets would've kept him, but his asking price was too high. But, that has nothing to do with fantasy baseball. Last year his OBP fell 57 points while he had some back problems. Now he's completely healthy for the first time in a few years and I'm hoping he can bounce back and put up solid numbers hitting behind Bonds.
45jumpball
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 18:09
13.10 Freddie Garcia - SP - Sea
With Baez and Biddle both gone, the available closers were not worth taking this high. With at least one player at each position, I started looking at starters. Still a bunch with familiar names. I looked up the latest on Freddie and read that he was in great shape and throwing well. I've had Freddie on at least one team every one of the last 3 years . . . might as well continue the streak!
46Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 18:27
13.11 Mike Cameron - OF - NYM

A little bit of a reach pick, but the OF's on my list all had their share of warts. I wanted Griffey in this spot but he didn't make it very far into the round. Cameron was an acceptable fallback position. He is slated to hit 5th or 6th in the Mets lineup that has new tablesetters Matsui and Reyes in front of Piazza and Floyd. Sure Shea Stadium is a lousy park for hitters, but so was Safeco so it's not as if Cameron's numbers will take a hit. I think the Mets lineup has a decent chance to score some runs, and I expect them to be in the upper half of the NL.

What I really hope happens is that Cameron returns to his 30 SB form of 2001 and 2002. As it is now, he's projected with 22 SB's and I needed them. I could afford to give up some SLG and OBP. But Cameron really does need to steal at least that 22 SB's or this pick is not of great value.
47Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 21:10
13.12 Steve Trachsel, P, NYM

There were better SPs on the board IMM, but, this guy showed us some flashes of brilliance last year. He is the #2 starter in a pitcher's park that actually has some people behind him and an upgrade in hitting it seems. He isn't spectacular but if he can hold steady and benefit from the guys around him, I think another solid year is a high probability. A lot of time I will make picks on how they did last year or how they finished the year or how they look in their team this year. Call it "manager nullification" of stats sometimes, but, while perhaps I could have gotten him later, at least I got him and I'm not sure it was that much of a reach anyhow.
48Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 21:13
13.13 Kevin Millar, 1B/OF, Bos
That’s an ominous sounding pick number, isn’t it?

I still need a catcher. I still need a second baseman. I still need a middle infielder. By the time I get them, those slots will really suck. So be it. When I look at the list of eligible names, I can’t get comfortable that any of them might be back on fantasy waivers before the end of April. Maybe even before the end of March. Those slots will be my crosses to bear this year.

I also need a corner infielder, and that list, while dwindling in quality, still has some non-scary names. Millar is one of the few with potential to have average slugging and OBP. Just about everyone else looks to be tilted toward either power or OB – or neither. Millar’s 1B/OF eligibility might also come in handy, although at this point I envision him in my CI slot. His post-All Star numbers dropped off last year, and that’s a bit of a concern – but no one left in this draft comes without some “issues”. Put me down for an optimistic 80-90-2-.475-.350
49Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 21:22
13.14 Corey Patterson - OF - ChN

Corey was a top 3 prospect for 2 years before making his way to the bigs. He was set to make his breakout season last year before tearing his ACL midway through the season. This could be his breakout season. While he has been streaky, he is a potential 5-tool player and his full fantasy value may not be recognized due to last year's injury. 100 runs is a low projection for him as he is projected to bat second in this powerful Cubs lineup, however his RBI opps might suffer. 25 dingers and 90 RBI are also possible but his greatest strength may be his speed: if his knee is fully healed, 40 SB is a viable projection for this soon to be 25 year-old.
50darkside
      ID: 4218517
      Thu, Mar 11, 2004, 23:58
13.15 Kenny Lofton - OF - NYY

I had actually considered Lofton in the previous round, but thought he'd come back around and wanted another closer more. So, when this pick came and he was still available, I decided I may as well fill up my OF. There's certainly a risk with Lofton, namely his age (37), especially when part of his value is his SB's, and Bernie Williams. He should get plenty of ab's as both he and Bernie will probably also DH some, but him not having a guaranteed spot is a worry. But, I think he'll get his time, give reasonable run, slg and obp numbers, especially given the lineup of which he'll be a part, and add some SB's.
51KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 08:45
13.16 Raul Mondesi - OF - PIT

This and my next pick were both for veteran players who I thought would give me consistent production along the lines of what they've done over the past few years. Mondesi has average numbers, but he's never been less than 523 AB over the last 3 seasons. He should be good for about 80 R, 75 RBI, 20 SB, .450 SLG, and .330 OBP. Even if he only gets close to that, I'll be happy with this pick.

52KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 08:52
14.01 Juan Encarnacion - OF - LOS

Though Encarnacion isn't quite the veteran that Mondesi is, he still has 5 years of solid experience and that was more than other players I had listed around him. While his SLG and OBP aren't all that great, I'll be happy if he repeats last year's totals of 80 R, 94 RBI, 19 SB, .446 SLG, and .313 OBP. As with the previous pick, I wanted a player who was more likely to get previous year's numbers and I think Encarnacion can do that.

53darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 09:07
14.02 Jay Gibbons - OF - Bal

I was going back and forth between Lofton and Gibbons, so I decided to get both. Given the fact that Lofton may have to sit some days, I didn't think it would be bad to have another OF who can put up decent numbers. The last two years have shown that Gibbons can produce with some regularity and from what I've read, similar, if not better, results are a reasonable expectation this year. Too, maybe I'm being swayed by the local media (I'm in DC), but I think the O's will have a fairly productive lineup this year and I think having other fairly good hitters around can only help him. Also, there's talk that he could get enough starts at first base to qualify, making him more attractive. Being only 27, I think he can still show marked improvement and, given that, think it's reasonable to expect slg in the .460-.470ish range, 100rbi and 75r. My one concern is his obp, but that's a concern for most of the guys I've drafted, so why allow that to sway me?
54Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 09:09
14.03 Rich Harden - SP - Oak

I was surprised that Harden made it to me here, but had I written my rationale before drafting him, I might have gone to my second choice (luckily he made it back to me). He has had a sore shoulder at the beginning of spring training and didn't fare too well when he did take the hill. That being said, I still like this guy's potential. He will be at a pitcher's park, should get good run support and he should put up 150 plus strikeouts. His WHIP is a little higher than I would like, but he is young and should develop over the course of the season.
55Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 10:02
14.04 Jose Valverde, P, Ari
I don’t think there's any issue over the merits of Valverde. The only debate would be whether I’m taking him too early. But when I grabbed Matt Mantei as my second closer in round 8, I circled Valverde as a “gots to have”. Mantei has had durability problems, and has also been mentioned as possible trade fodder. So while Valverde can make a valuable contribution even if Mantei remains in place all season, he offers my team additional value as “Mantei insurance”.

Here’s my expectation: 4 wins, 10 saves (even with a healthy Mantei, he’ll get some), a sub-3.00 ERA, a low WHIP (between 1.0 and 1.2), and more strikeouts than IP (last year he struck out 71 in 50 innings).
56Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 10:23
14.05 A.J. Pierzynski, C, SF
I've been looking at him a long time and I like him much better than the other players I had to choose from. With 5 teams still w/o a catcher, it makes good trade bait. But if I keep him, his obp is certainly helpful at my DH spot. When I got Varitek, I thought AJ would be coming off the board right behind him, but I was wrong. I really figured Guru would take AJ with his pick, but when he didn't I ditched the guy I was prepared to take for him.

I also flashed back to last year on my G20 team. I only had Piazza and when he got hurt I was forced to use guys such as [name deleted to protect the undrafted] and it absolutely killed me. Every time a C had a game that was even decent and was on the FA list I'd pick him up only to swap again with the C du jour. This is a horrible position to have to be w/o and AJ has a solid OBP. Even though he's in a pitcher's park, he sprays the ball around and should continue to do well depending on where he's at in the lineup with the "Bonds factor." There are many other players I could have taken at this spot that could have really helped me, but I felt that AJ had slid so far down and with a Varitek injury, I just felt that I had to grab him.

57Species
      Leader
      ID: 7724916
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 10:34
14.06 Dave Roberts - OF - LA

There's the pick that will make or break my season.....Dave Roberts :( Ugh.

I ran the numbers. Roberts only barely hurts my OBP (down to .365 from .367) and does kill the SLG (from .500 to .486!), but I needed the steals and if I'm punting saves I can't punt steals too.

For comparison sake I compared my team to both Slackjawed and KKB's teams to see how they stack up. I used Slack and KKB because they had each picked C's and 2b's, the 2 positions that likely affect the numbers downward as much as any position. KKB actually had the exact same number of hitters in the same positions as I did, so it was a very apples-to-apples approach.

Using the same projections I've been using for the draft, Roberts didn't hurt me horribly in the other categories. I was still ahead of Slack in average RBI, runs and SB's per player (he currently has only 9 hitters to my 10), yet was only .002 behind in OBP and .001 behind in SLG. Conceivably, when Slack picks his next player, that person will bring those two stats down to where I am, thus giving me comfort that the SLG I've been stacking up on to cover a Sanchez or Roberts type was worth it.

KKB has a different dynamic. KKB kicks my butt in runs - has a small advantage in SB, but I smoke him in OBP and SLG and have a small advantage in RBI.

Point of the post - Roberts is a huge risk. There's health as well as the fact that the Dodgers could be looking to replace him. Hopefully the projections I'm using that only give Roberts 62 runs and 44 SB's are low. Roberts got 40 steals in only 110 or so games, so if he plays 135 games I am hopeful for 50 steals. I don't believe the Dodgers can be any more pathetic on offense than last year, so 62 runs in 135 games seems low too.

If Roberts loses his job I've wasted a pick and I'm (bleeped) for steals.
58jumpball
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 12:30
14.07 Vinny Castilla, 3B, Col
I wanted a middle infielder or a 3B for this pick to help with roster flexibility. I considered Spivey and Spezio as well as Castilla, but the idea of platooning Castilla when he's playing at home was too good to spend the pick on either of the other 2 guys. Also briefly considered taking Durazo, but eventually decided to stick with the plan.
59J
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 16:05
14.08 Erubiel Durazo

I see Durazo as a guy who could potentially step up and replace what the A's lost with Tejada bailing. He's always had all the potential in the world, now he's got a little experience under his belt with a full season in the majors. At this point in the draft, you've gotta go with potential, and thats exactly what Durazo is, a potential!
60smartone @work
      Donor
      ID: 29452720
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 16:17
14.09 Ugueth Urbina, RP, FA

UU, is the World-Champion's closer. Once he signs with an MLB team, he will get at least 5-6 save opportunities a month (even last year's Tigers had this number of save opportunities) that will hopefully go along with 1.15/3.10 WHIP/ERA and a bunch of K's. There are too many teams without an "real" closer, so I hope that UU will be smart enough to take a reasonable 1-year offer and stay around, otherwise, I'll ask Yahoo to include stats from the Japanese/Venezuelaian league in our Roto league. All in all, I think that the risk/reward of this pick made a lot of sense at the 14th round and I really hope not to see a headline like "UU signed with the Yomiuri Giants" this season.
61Peter N.
      ID: 42234917
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 17:06
14.10 D'Angelo Jimenez

I was all set to take Durazo with this pick, but J grabbed him two picks from me. This forced me to finally address my glaring need for a 2nd basemen. Jimenez still being available this late in the draft come as somewhat of a surprise. I’m hoping he continues where he left off last year with the Reds and doesn’t revert back to what he did with the White Sox. He’ll bat leadoff and has a decent OBP% when you consider what‘s left out there at 2nd. Double digit home runs and stolen bases are expected too.

62Caper
      Donor
      ID: 1535108
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 21:16
14.11 Bernie Williams

Sure he just had an appendectomy and was hurt a lot of last year. He will be back right after the Japan series and will get his AB's in that line-up. He is a reliable source of Ave, SLG, RBI's and even some runs in that line-up. He was not a very attractive pick earlier on, but for a 14th round selection, I believe there is still some considerable upside here.

63blue hen
      ID: 217351118
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 21:24
14.12 John Olerud, 1B, Sea
I agonized and agonized over John Olerud and Edgar Martinez. I knew I wanted one of those guys to make up for Alex Sanchez. Both are professional hitters, and both are pretty much locks to have OBPs over .400. Edgar has a little more power, but isn't eligible at 1B, only at DH. I figured I didn't want to waste my position of total-flexibility this early, so I went for Olerud. I also considered Rich Aurilia and Paul Konerko at this point, but really wanted the firepower to make up for Sanchez.

Oh, and if we change the categories at the last minute and include fielding, Olerud is the best defensive first baseman in the history of baseball.
64Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 217351118
      Fri, Mar 12, 2004, 21:24
14.13 Craig Wilson - Pit - C
Playing time, shmaying time. Craig killed left-handed pitching last year (1.123 OPS). Supposedly he will be the right-handed portion of the 1b platoon with Randal Simon, who's OPS was only .015 better against right-handed pitching. Perhaps it will come back to bite me, but I just find it hard to believe that a team such as the Pirates that isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut will have trouble finding at-bats for such a dangerous hitter who is their best established power threat and who can play (albeit poorly) 3 different positions.
67Tosh
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:33
14.14 Ramon Hernandez, C, SD

I need a catcher, and so does beastiemiked (who has 2 picks before it comes around to me again), so I selected the catcher least likely to hurt me. Hernandez is coming off a year in which he set career highs in batting average (.273), home runs (21), RBI (78) and OPS (.789). I don’t expect numbers quite this solid, but certainly comparable.
68beastiemiked
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:35
14.15 LaTroy Hawkins, P, ChC
I almost picked him last round so I was very surprised and happy he made it back to me. He is 15-3 the past 2 season with an excellent ERA and WHIP. If he puts up numbers similar to last year I would be ecstatic as he would be steal this late in the draft. There's also a chance that Borowski faulters and if that happens Hawkins should get a number of save ops.
69Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:36
14.16 Scott Spiezio,1b/3b, Sea

15.01 Moises Alou, OF, CHC

With this set of picks, I was trying to fill in some holes on my squad with positions that were growing increasingly thinner. The expectations I have for both guys are pretty similar: ~85 rbi, 75 runs, .450 SLG. Alou should get on base a little more.

With Spiezio, I liked his multiposition availability, as he'll be able to fill in at either corner infielder spot. He'll be going to a hitters park, but he's never really been a homerun hitter, and has put up suprisingly high slugging percentages with two-baggers.

Although he's getting up in age, Alou was pretty durable last year and word is he has really worked hard in the offseason. Looking at other teams rosters, I could see that quite a few needed outfielders still. And Alou was the one I had rated the highest.[placeholder]

70beastiemiked
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:36
15.02 Josh Phelps, DH, Tor
Very risky pick as he's only eligible to be my utility guy. However, I think he's got a decent upside and should give me some decent OBP and SLG% numbers. I'm not expecting a breakout season but I'd be disappointed if he didn't improve on last years numbers. I've now got all my hitting positions filled except MI and catcher so it's time to start concentrating on pitching.
71Tosh
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:37
15.03 Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, Min

If he slumps a bit, he may lose his job to one of the several young studs waiting in the Minnesota wings, but for now he is an above average fantasy 1B. He’s quite solid in OPB, but not quite so solid in SLG%. He had wrist surgery in the off-season so maybe that will increase his power and strength, and he’ll have good opportunities in the runs and RBI categories. A solid selection to fill my corner infield slot.
72Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 217351118
      Sat, Mar 13, 2004, 13:38
15.04 - Aaron Miles - 2B - Col

Still lacking a 2b and not a single one stood out from he pack. When in doubt, go with the rookie in Coors field who is expected to win the starting job. Miles kept his OPS at right around .800 in one season each at both the AA and AAA levels and his numbers suggest a little pop, which could potentially translate into 8 - 12 hr as a Rockie. His SB totals went down from 25 to 8 in the transition to AAA and he was also caught stealing 9 times at the AAA level, so I'm not terribly optimistic that he will get many steals as a Rockie. He is slated to hit second, however, so the run totals should be a nice benefit, given the thumpers that follow in the order.
73blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 17103420
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:07
15.05 Edgar Martinez, DH, Sea
As noted in the John Olerud comment, I was looking for some solid rates to make up for the low OBP and SLG of Alex Sanchez (and some as-yet-unpicked middle infielders). I picked Olerud because he can play 1B or util, whereas Edgar can only play util. That said, I think Edgar is the superior hitter, so I'm glad I was able to get both. At this point, I can worry about other positions and not have any worry that I'll struggle in the rate stats.
74Caper
      Donor
      ID: 17103420
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:08
15.06 Rich Aurilia, SS, Sea

Bobby Crosby was selected as my first SS a while ago and he is young with lots of potential. That may translate into a ROY candidate or a young player not ready to produce yet. Aurilla is the safety net here. The power numbers may never be what they were 3-4 years ago, but he is still a solid reliable SS option who will produce with the second-tier options at SS. Any return to the form of the past will be a bonus.

75Peter N.
      Sustainer
      ID: 17103420
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:09
15.07 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, ANA

K-Rod broke out in the playoff run two years ago with the Angels. He built on that experience last year posting impressive #s in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. He’s also just one Troy Percival injury away from being a top-notch closer. He’ll help bolster my ERA, WHIP and strikeout categories. Never really considered anybody else with this pick.

76smartone
      ID: 35254317
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 07:55
15.08 Jacque Jones
This was one of the easier picks, for me, in the draft. I was looking for another OF player and JJ was waaay on the top of my list. He has a nice spring training (not that it matters THAT much, but it's always nice), he is at the right age (28) so I figure that hitting his projected numbers of (83 76 15 0.340 0.493) is within reach and would work well for the 4th OF in my roster.
77J
      ID: 48281412
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 13:26
15.09 Darin Erstad - OF - Ana

I don't see many projections that agree with me, but I think Erstad could have a pretty good year. He's still only 29 years old, but it seems like he's been around forever now. If he could just stay healthy, he could be a real steal this late, especially if he's healthy enough to run again. He stole 20+ bases in 01 & 02, but then just 1 last year. With a lineup featuring Vlad, Erstad could get more to hit, and it looks like he'll be playing 1B, so multi-positional guys are always nice to have.
80jumpball
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 20:47
15.10 Jermaine Dye, OF, Oak
I left a queue just before J picked of Darin Erstad and Jermaine Dye. He took Darren so I took Jermaine. I felt these 2 were the best hitters available and I still had the Util slot to fill in my everyday lineup.
81Species
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 20:49
15.11 Junior Spivey, 2B, Mil

How do you spell REACH? I'm not sure if it's R-E-A-C-H or S-P-I-V-E-Y

I called Guru this morning to get an update on the draft, as I was travelling away from the office and didn't want to hold the draft up if it was my turn. In a bluff, I told Guru "Do you wanna trade with me to take Spivey, or else I'm gonna". He didn't take the bait, but the more I looked at the dwindling pool of middle infielders that won't absolutely kill your OBP and SLG, taking a risk on Spivey seemed to make more and more sense. Add that to the fact that three of the five teams drafting after me need BOTH a 2b AND a middle infielder (and the other 2 teams need a middle infielder as well), and this pick was one part need and one part to screw the other teams behind me and cross one more 2b off the books.

Spivey has risk but certainly has some upside. He's played 3 ML seasons of 72, 143 and 106 games with a wide range of success in those 3. But if you run a 3-year average, he has a .362 OBP and .445 SLG for an OPS of .807. While OBP and SLG are only 2 of the 5 components, I don't believe any other MI available is capable of an OPS of .800.

I did some research and the Milwaukee papers seem convinced that Spivey is the full time 2b and slated to hit either 2nd or 3rd. In Spivey's career year in 2002, he hit 2nd in the lineup and flourished. Podsednik is a much superior table setter than Tony Womack, so I am hopeful that Spivey will have a solid season as my 3rd middle infielder. Here's hopin'
82Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 21:10
15.12 Paul Konerko, 1B, ChW

I was looking at getting Edwin Jackson here as he is showing great promise even this year at the time I was drafting. My entire list was gone again and Jackson was on my side lists of people not to overlook even though he won't be on most stats from the year before or ranked very highly on most projection charts. Since my entire list was gone, Jackson was at the top by virtue of elimination.

I checked the hitters I could use and Boom Konerko just JUMPED out at me. I checked twice to make sure he was still available and then to make sure he wasn't injured and indeed starting. Even though this guy flat out stunk the first half of last year, he started showing flashes of incredibility in the second half that reminded us all of 2002. He then kind of fizzled out again at the end of the year, but needing a CI and grabbing this guy with, what, pick #236 was a good value for me as long as he didn't play like he did the first of last year.

Looks like I have several White Sox players, but that may not be all bad. I figured I'd rather have to get someone other than Edwin if he wasn't around then to try and replace what Konerko could bring to the table by bypassing him.
83Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 14, 2004, 21:29
15.13 Rafael Soriano, P, Sea

I’m not really sure what I’m getting with this pick: a solid set-up man who’ll get a few saves, a backup closer, Guardado insurance, an eventual 5th starter, or an injury problem. He hasn’t pitched yet this spring, but I can’t find any suggestions that his season is at all in jeopardy. What I do know I’m getting is a 24 year old with a high-90s fastball who held opposing batters to a .162 average last year (and only .111 with runners in scoring position), someone who posted an ERA under 2.00 both at home and on the road last year, and someone who struck out 68 batters in just 53 innings. With Guardado ailing a bit this spring, this gives me a little more comfort. But I really hope he develops into a starter. I think that would give this pick the most upside potential.
84Trip
      Donor
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 00:10
15.14 Edwin Jackson - SP - LA

When someone with great expectations falls to you at this point in the draft you don't question it. Last year Jackson became the youngest player since Gooden to win his ML debut. NL ROTY? Jackson appears to have locked up the 5th starting spot in the Dodgers rotation this year and would be the favorite for the ROTY award if K. Matsui was ruled ineligible (as he probably should be). Other players were considered at this spot but only because I did not think King Edwin would make it back to me here, and let's face it, he should not have in this deep of a league.

Jackson is a power pitcher and if he can log the innings, 200 K's is not an unachievable number. He also has the added advantage of playing most of his games at a pitcher's park, which should help him maintain an ERA of less than 3.5. Throw in a WHIP of 1.25, 15 Wins and I may just have landed the steal of the draft.
86darkside
      ID: 4218517
      Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 11:16
15.15 Desi Relaford - 2B - KC

Given that I still needed 2B, MI and CI at this juncture, I thought it best to addess one of those issues. MI had been getting periously thin, so I decided to look at 2B and SS. I don't have an SB specialists, mainly just a few guys who also get 15-20 stolen bases, so I was hoping to find someone who could fit that profile while not destroying me in slg and obp. Relaford stuck out as it looks like he's got the 2B job locked up in KC, should get 15-20 SB's and has eligibility at 3B and OF. The hope of him not killing my obp is a slight one, but one I guess I'll live with. The short of it was that I needed someone to put here, and he looked like one of the better remaining options.
87KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 11:31
15.16 Jay Payton - OF - SDG

First off, let me get all the concerns out of the way. 1) He's moving from COL to SDG. 2) He's battled injuries during his career and currently has a hamstring bothering him. 3) He's never shown much outside of COL.

Okay, with that out of the way, I'll go ahead and admit I took a huge gamble on Payton. I'm hoping his hamstring heals and that his .300 OBP in 2001 was a fluke. Outside of 2001, he has a .330-.350 OBP. Again outside of 2001, he has seen a good increase in his SLG (due to COL?). Most importantly to me, he had 500 AB last season, which tells me that he may have found a way to curb the injuries, though his latest hamstring issue might suggest otherwise.

Basically, I figure it's going to be boom or bust for Payton. He was the highest ranked OF'er left on my draft sheet and I didn't feel comfortable with any of the other hitters at this point in the draft. If he were healthy and hitting in COL again, I think Payton would have gone 2 rounds before this. Given that, I think I took him right where I should have. If he can get 80 RBI, 70 R, 5 SB, .450 SLG, .350 OBP, then I won't feel like this was a wasted pick.

90Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 15, 2004, 12:44
Rounds 16-20
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