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Subject: RIBC - Draft recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Mar 21, 2004, 20:16
This thread is for overall comments on the draft.
RIBC Managers - please comment on any of the following:
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
Once I get it organized, I'll post my pro-forma standings using various projections. Others are invited to do the same if they have them. Please post those here.
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| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 10:10
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I'll start, just to get the ball rolling.
General strategy:
-In the first 2 picks, get one stud starter, and one stud hitter. (Halladay & Thome)
-Focus on hitting for a few rounds, getting best available, unless the difficult positions (catcher & middle infield) were not a significant reach.
-Look for a closer around round 5/6, and add a second closer before they are gone.
-Get a second solid starter (with decent Ks) in round 6-10.
-Finish 10 rounds with 6 hitters, 4 pitchers.
I want to fill out the pitching staff with solid setup men - good ratios, good K ratios, a few vulture saves. Even better if they are behind a shaky closer. Err on the side of taking too early, because I want a bunch of them, and if I wait until their “time”, I won’t get as many as I want.
3rd-5th starters can wait until later.
If tough positions are not filled early (C, MI), allow them to slide until late. Among the weaker choices, I probably can’t pick the best one anyway.
Take a 3rd closer if there are no other obvious choices. If I have excess saves, one can be traded later.
Don’t intentionally punt on a hitting category unless that seems to be what happens. There are 16 points in each category, and even ranking at the 25th percentile is worth something. This will be a competitive league, and every point helps. After a month or so, I’ll have a better sense of how things are going, and a decision to punt can be made then.
Pitching: Dominate the ratio categories, place highly in saves, and stay competitive in Ks by emphasizing relievers and starters with good K ratios. Provides a solid foundation on which I can overlay lower rated starters, if that seems appropriate. And with no minimum innings pitched, maybe I’ll settle for top ratios and a reduced ranking in wins, with Ks around the median and strong saves.
Don’t be shy about taking someone several rounds early, if it is someone who fits the mold.
Recap
The first 10 rounds went pretty much as expected. It was a little unnerving to see Thome and Preston Wilson have injury problems, but hopefully they'll be OK.
I may have jumped into non-closers a bit early, but that was a risk I was willing to take. Valverde served a dual purpose of backing up one of my top closers. I used picks 12,14 and 15 to get relievers - although Rafael Soriano may eventually start as well, which would be fine with me.
I ended up letting catcher and middle infield (other than K. Matsui) slide. I always felt the available options were too great of a reach. A few times I was all set to fill one of those slots when the prime candidate was snatched away at the last moment.
I'll comment on some of the other questions later. But generally, I think I'd approach the draft pretty similarly if I had to do it over right now.
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| 2 | smartone @work
Donor
ID: 29452720
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 11:22
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Ok, here's the first part from my side:
General Strategy
I was very happy to be invited to the RBIC realizing that I know significantly less about baseball in comparison to the other 15 managers (the first time I watched a baseball game was 3 years ago), so finishing anywhere above the #15-16 place will be a nice achievement. However, I hate to be in the bottom, so I took advantage of the few pre-draft days and tried to learn as much as I can about Roto Baseball and to see how I can use my slight relative advantage in computers (frankly speaking, not much beyond Excel...) and in numerical modelling to get a little advantage in the draft.
My keys of the draft:
1. The MI are by far the weakest positions: I planned to take a SS and a 2B in rounds 2-4 and the MI around the 6-8th round
2. The C slot, beyond Posada (and probably I-Rod) is pretty even, so once Posada was taken, there was no urgency to reach for a Catcher and I actually planned to get ONE after the 20th round
3. Pitching is significantly harder to project (in comparison to hitting), while WHIP, and to some degree ERA, are the more predictable categories in pitching. Therefore, I planned to take the best avaialble hitter in the first round regardless of position and to worry about pitching later.
4. Closers: I wanted at least one solid closer and with a couple of wannabe-closers.
5. Starters: I focused on hitting but wanted to have "something" to build on later in the season.
6. Several good new pitchers pop into the league every year. Few good hitters, very few, make it during the season (usually outfielders with speed) but VERY few new infield hitters, if any, (with good HITTING stats) will emerge during the season.
7. 15 Internet-savvy competitors in my league, and with 400 players on our rosters, my REAL chance of catching a tasty fish from the FA pool is marginal. Therefore, I decided to add more and more (predictable?) offense, hopefully to leverage it, via trades for pitching, during the season.
How was my plan executed?
1. MI: After grabbing Renteria in the 2nd round (maybe I had to take Jeter???) I was debating between Kent and Vidro in the 3rd. I felt lucky to get Vidro int he 4th round and to lock this very troublesome position early on, noticing that the difference between the OF is not THAT huge.
2. Missing Posada was not a surprise, so I continued to pick P and OF while keeping an eye on the available catchers. At some point, I wanted Victor Martinez, but he was drafted as I was too greedy. Later on, 2 managers picked their 2nd catcher and I realized the advantage of having 2 catchers (3 counting stats, so more GPs) and jumped onto 2 catchers a little early than expected. I liked the Coors numbers of Charles Johnson, and took a bet on Michael Barrett with an extra Toby Hall insurance.
3&5. I went with the best (available) closer, Perci, as many closers were quickly taken off the board on the 6th. Then, I picked 3 2nd-tier SP, all with relatively low ERA and WHIP that pitch in pitcher-friendly stadiums. Yeah, I know that I am last in W and K's, but I am actually 2 SP away from the middle of the pack, and I ~ASSUME~ that later in the season I'll be able to get 1-2 quality SP to get 3-8 points in each of these categories.
4. I continued with a risky pick of Urbina (but his upside was tremendous in the 12th round) and added a bunch of RP which all post low WHIP/ERA and all have a chance to Save a few games, hoping that they'll get stints as their teams Closers during the season.
After the 15th round I started to run my Projection Table and quickly realized that I am VERY strong in hitting (13-16 points in each category) with nice ERA/WHIP numbers as well as 8 or so Saves points. Hence, I decided to enhance my offense by adding as much backup as I could afford since I couldn't find any additional P's that were fit to my team.
Which teams did well in the draft?
I have my projections-based table which I will post tomorrow morning, but I REALLY want to read other manager's remarks about the draft (the managers that don't have these tables), and especially their assessment of everybody else's draft BEFORE they see numerics (though these are ONLY projections)
I guess that this is enough for round one... I will post more later on
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| 3 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 11:39
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Strategy: I didn't really have a strategy. I kind of form that as I go along based on the players I have and what my needs are. I knew with 9 active pitchers that I'd have to get more pitching than I generally like. That means probably going to have to get pitching earlier than I like and with 16 teams would have to get a stud closer early. The first few rounds, I'd just pick from the best available players and how they fit into my team. I've also never played with a CI and MI. I absolutely dread SS and 2B positions as there aren't many players from those positions that can do much. Using three of them daily wasn't going to be fun.
Favorite Picks: Oswalt in the 4th. Perhaps Smoltzie in the 3rd. Could be a lot more. Can address this better as the season progresses ;)
Best teams: I really can't answer that yet. Many teams look solid. I think the most intriguing draft is smartone's and it will be interesting to see how his early MI picks and his minimal pitching work out for him.
Biggest Surprises: I knew coming in that mnay of the players in this league know their stuff. I played with several of them last year in G20 and they know all about the strategies of a deep league. Others I have talked to on several occassions via IM and they know their stuff. Then even others show on the boards they know their stuff. Albeit, it was frustrating spending all that time and forming your strategy based on your team and available players only to have your picks snatched from you time and time again. At a certain point, I expected the teams to diverge in needs where people are more picking for the postions they needed to fill, etc., but that really never happened. I rarely got the player I really wanted.
Re do it?: Nah. I have some guides, but I pick from my gut. I try to not let my heart get in the way and pick favorite players or representatives of my favorite team, but people tend to pick where their comfortable and knowledgable. I tried to get the best players that I felt comfortable with. Many times there were better players or more highly ranked players that I skipped as I felt better with another player based on my experience. But as Gene Hackman said, "my team's on the floor." We'll start like this and if it doesn't work, there are other remedies out there that I can try on the fly. It's a long season.
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| 4 | Peter N.
Donor
ID: 257161713
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 12:55
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General Strategy:
I didn’t really have a strict set strategy to follow going in rather just some general guidelines. Note: This was the 1st league I’ve played in that had a MI and CI. As far as pitching, I generally don’t use an early pick on a closer. This year especially, I feel there is plenty of value later in the draft for closers. For this draft, I also didn’t want too many early picks on starting pitchers. I am usually good at picking pitchers of value up later in the draft. Regarding hitters, I wanted to make sure I made myself competitive in all power hitting cats. I didn’t pay too much attention to the OBP cat initially as I feel that that is the easiest cat to come back on. One other thing, I wanted to make sure I drafted some players with flexibility since our bench was short.
Favorite Picks:
I thought Mulder in the 4th round was very good as far as value. Andruw Jones in the 7th round was probably my favorite pick with Hank Blalock in the 5th round being a close second.
Other Teams:
Its hard to tell for me at this point. However, the team that intrigues me the most is smartone's team.
Surprises:
No one slipped! I knew it was going to be tough going in, but I didn’t expect it to be this tough. Eventually, I learned to not even bother to make a short list until the draft came close to me. I had several instances where I thought for sure a player would get to me, but they‘d get snatched up. Durazo, in the 14th round, is an example. This is truly a great group of managers we have here
Execution of Plan:
I feel pretty good about the way my draft went. 4 out of my first 5 picks were hitters. All 4 of the hitters will make me competitive in the power cats. I snagged Mulder in the 4th round to anchor my starting pitching. A run on closers occurred in the 5th round which persisted into the 6th round so I grabbed Benitez at that point. I was glad to get both of my sleeper candidates for saves going into the draft, Chad Cordero and Fernando Rodney. Cordero, if nothing else, should help my ERA, WHIP and K cats. I passed on Jimenez twice, but didn’t a third time in the 14th round. I grabbed several starting pitchers near the end of the draft which I feel have good upside. Armas, Towers, Ainsworth and Escobar should contribute nicely. I think I did a satisfactory job of drafting some good value players with flexibility. Lecroy, Conine and Mora all will add flexibility which is a must in this league IMO.
Do anything different?
Its way too early to be second-guessing yourself! ;-) Seriously, I feel good about my draft. I am going to need a healthy Mulder to anchor my staff. The fact that he is currently not is not a good sign. Along with Mulder, I have two other lefties at the top of my rotation. I think Mulder and Wolf is a decent 1-2 punch. Also, Sabathia is a breakout candidate of mine this year. I’m also going to need Benitez to be solid this year. Cordero or Rodney(both would be even better!) will need to breakout this year and contribute in the saves cat. I feel that I will be competitive in the power hitting cats which is what I wanted. My OBP may be low initially, but I think I can make up ground easily in that cat as the season progresses. Baldelli and Guerrero are my primary SB threats with Mora and Jimenez having the possibility to contribute as well. Overall, I feel good going into the season.
Let’s play ball!!!!
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| 5 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 15:19
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General Strategy: I'm a planner, so now that I sit here and think about what to write for the draft recap, I'm surprised I didn't have any plan for the draft--none at all. I don't know if it's because I have never planned when drafting a team, or if it's laziness or over-confidence or what, but I just didn't know where to start formulating a plan, so I didn't. I play fantasy sports with my gut in the beginning and then a healthy mix of gut and numbers through the bulk of the season. I guess part of the reason I didn't plan is because I just don't know who's gonna do what and how well they'll do it. All I really know is what they've done and what role I expect them to play. So, for the most part, I just evaluated players as my turn came, got a feel for what I expected them to do and went with that. That should explain Javy with my fourth pick. For some reason I expect him to have a very good year. If he does then I picked well, if not, I blew that pick. Such is life.
One plus about not having a plan is you can't screw it up...my plan was executed to perfection...I have 25 bodies on my team.
Favorite picks - I would have to say I'm most pleased with getting Randy with the 15th pick and Garret Anderson with the 80th. Randy is one of the best, but last season's poor performance and injuries were enough to keep the others away. I think he'll be dominant once again and think I got a steal if he is. Anderson is another I think I got at a low price...provided these preseason injuries are dealt with, I think he could be in for a big year...Vlad plus a contract year should push up his numbers, which were already excellent. I've been questioning my Jason Schmidt pick ever since I made it. I'm concerned about the offseason surgery as well as his lack of spring training success. I thought about several hitters here, but kept coming back to the notion that Schmidt would have more dominant pitching season than any of the hitters I was looking at would have a dominant hitting season. Time will tell if I was correct.
Other teams - If beastikemiked's OF is healthy all year I think he'll be the one to beat. Guru's strategy of stocking up on MR to keep the ratios low is very intriguing and I'm curious to see how it plays out. I think J could be a tough one to beat as well. As long as I'm one of the top 9, I don't really care how everyone else does. But, that's gonna be tough to do.
Surprises? - Easily the biggest surprise of the draft was how much I had to scramble to figure out who to pick. It was bad in the first few rounds, but ridiculous in the later rounds. It didn't help that I had 30 picks in-between mine, but there were never any of the guys I was looking at still available by the time it got back to me. I was also moderately surprised I was the only one to take pitchers with my first 2 picks, but having read the rationales am much less surprised now. This is gonna be a real tough league with an amazingly thin waver wire. Smart managment will be key to any sort of success.
Potpourri - I wouldn't do anything over (except maybe taking Schmidt so soon...) and am fairly pleased with my team. I think my real talent in fantasy sports comes with managing and especially w/ pitching matchups. This sort of league (as opposed to TSN) doesn't utilize my matchup abilities very much, but I think I'm a decent manager and will hopefully be able to compete with all of the other talented managers in the league. Good luck to everyone!
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| 6 | Caper
Donor
ID: 1535108
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 15:41
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Alright, I'll give a little background:
First, the other managers in this drafts are real pains-in -the-butt. Anytime you took a chance on letting someone slide he never came back. Sometimes I felt prepared enough to choose, but I always felt someone was sitting out there just salivating for me to miss the obvious choice.
Strategy
My only startegy was to try and anchor my offense with a 5 category guy and my pitching staff with a top starter and reliever. I was lucky enough to have a choice between Vladdy and Beltran first and took Beltran. Next time through I grabbed Vazquez to anchor my pitchers and then I went back to offense. I tried to take the top guy on my list as often as possible, with only slight emphasis on position. I wanted as many guys who could throw some steals in with their stats as I could get.
Execution
Fair I suppose. In Beltran, Damon, Young, Crosby, and Koskie, I took some guys who would give either a little or a lot of steals without sacrificing too much else. My starting pitching was selected with K's and WHIP in mind, hoping some W's will follow. In Peavy, Lee, Padilla, Leiter, Hernandez I hope they will outperform their win projections and give me the K's. My closers are very iffy. I was going to grab a top reliever when I picked Chipper with my third choice. That is one I would like back. Chipper may have a very good year, but I could have gotten similar production a round or two later and taken a known closer as anchor. Dotel should be good, but.....
Prognosis
I like my team overall. Doing it over, I would apply the same ideas, probably change the Chipper choice. I like the predictions Guru gives based on projections as they do somewhat mirror what I was trying to achieve. I do believe if my pitvhers perform up to the ERA, K and WHIP that is projected then the W's will exceed projections. We shall see. The offense fell out very well, assuming Martinez doesn't totally bomb(or Crosby).
The Competition
I have looked at the projections and the teams. The numbers look very close in most catagories. It appears to me that these are 16 well-drafted teams and the difference will be made by injuries and waivers.
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| 7 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 16:18
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1. Plan/Strategy
In the past, my teams have been too pitching heavy. I would generally win (or place high in) WHIP and ERA, and do well (top 5 or so) in W, Sv, and K. On the other hand, I was usually at or near the bottom in most hitting stats. So, based on that, I knew I had to round out my game to have any chance in this league. My plan was to get a hitter, any hitter, with my first pick. From there, I was going to play it by ear, making sure that I would choose a hitter that was lower ranked on my sheet compared to a pitcher if that hitter's position was weak, like C or 2B. I also went with the Billy Beane approach. I tried to go with guys who had good, consistent OBP compared to guys who were low OBP with other big numbers, especially with younger players I was looking at. I also planned on avoiding players with significant injury histories all together and made sure I knew of every player who had an injury last year and what their status for this year was. Overall, I think I executed my plan well. I got Abreu with my first pick and was extra happy when Sheffield ran into injury problems since I was taking heat over not picking Sheff (who I had considered and rejected for a number of reasons). The lowest 3-year average OBP of the hitters I plan on starting is .333 and all would average around the .350 range. Considering my past hitter exploits, I'm happy with that. Pitching, I'm not real concerned about. My starting rotation (who I'm counting on for W's) is Hudson, Batista, Radke, and Redding. I've got Seo, Ohka, and Villarreal for spot starts and a bullpen to keep my ERA and WHIP low and rack up some saves (Hoffman, Cordero, Leskanic, and Bradford). Favorite Picks/Do Over
Some people may question these 2, but Redding with my 16th pick and Leskanic with my 18th pick are my favorites. I had Redding on my radar for a while and he was ranked higher on my list than other pitchers that were being taken. I think some may have been turned off by having Oswalt, Miller, Clemens, and Pettitte in front of him, but not me. I think it will help his confidence and keep him loose in the #5 spot. As I said in my rationale for Redding, I see him as a solid #2 or #3 on a lot of other teams. To get that kind of guy in the 16th round was huge, IMHO. Leskanic is looking better and better the more MacDougal is hurting. This pick is surprising even me as he was originally just an "I hope MacDougal implodes" pick. While I think MacDougal would implode anyhow, him hurting only helps get Leskanic even more save opportunities. At the time, other pitchers being taken with any shot at Saves were Herges, Carter, Ligtenberg, etc. I think Leskanic can, and will, outperform all and if MacDougal falters early enough could turn into a pick that would have gone before the 10th round, possibly even around the time of our little run on closers (Rounds 5-6). No do-over's for me. I like what I have and am confident in my players. I realize I won't have all these same players come the ASB, much less the end of the season, but I'm still happy with where I'll be starting. Other Teams
I really like Guru's approach just because of his pitching. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain a solid ERA and WHIP as the projections indicate. I'm also interested in smartone's team for the lack of pitching. I'm curious to see how that will work out. I'm not sure I would want to trade teams with anyone because I don't see anybody with a team that is heads-and-tails above everybody else. As Guru would say, if there's no obvious move, don't make one. Draft Surprises
Two things surprised me the most and they were very similar. First, I was surprised at how many times I had to find new players for my next pick after guys I was looking at disappeared off the board. That surprised me, especially early on, because there were a fair number of times that I was thinking, "no way anybody's looking at this guy." Along the same lines, I was surprised at how many players I ended up taking off of other people's short lists. When I was left to redo my own short list so many times, I thought for sure that I was reaching for a pick only to find out that someone else was thinking of the same pick. If nothing else, I think it boosted my drafting confidence, especially towards the later rounds. Do Something Different
I really can't say I would do something different. I look at all my picks and don't see any glaring errors or picks that I shouldn't have taken at particular spots. As mentioned in my surprises, it was hard to reach for a player in this draft because the likelihood was that there were 2-3 managers looking at that same player. If anything, I might have spent more time determining how much I wanted to put into my hitting rather than just thinking to myself that I wanted to concentrate on that area more than previous drafts. As it is, I still ended up with 6 hitters out of my first 9 picks and managed to fill my infield before we got to double-digit rounds. Now if I do horrible in this league, I might reconsider, but as of now, I'm happy.
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| 8 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 17:34
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I used Rotowire's dollar value projection tool as a guide for my drafting. I am more of a gut/instinct type of player although I enjoy the numbers as well.
My hitting strategy was, as a general rule, to focus on OBP and SLG because I felt that as a whole the R and RBI would come off of that. I was then interested in generally younger players than older players, hoping for some upside. Lastly, I was sensitive to positional scarcity, figuring it's much easier to get decent mid-to-late round OF's and 1b's than it is to get MI's and catchers.
My pitching strategy typically centers around very strong ratios, but bluntly I think I might have reached on some of my pitchers, so I may have endangered my ERA. As I wrote in the rationale thread at some point, I had a 'preferred profile' for pitchers that included:
1 - Contending teams
2 - Strong bullpen
3 - Strong offense
Obviously if you have those 3 things you are more likely to get wins, which can be a rather nebulous category. In Schilling, Maddux, Clement, Milton and Lieber I certainly kept to my preferred profile. Darrell May, my 6th starter, has a contender and a strong offense but without the pen. Oh well, you can't win them all in the 21st round.
I've never been a huge fan of grabbing stud closers. I think saves can be managed via trade or waiver wire, so I didn't place a high priority on them. Given the very tumultuous condition of nearly half of the league's closers, my closer strategy was to wait on stockpile the 2nd/3rd tier guys. It didn't work -- everyone else was also looking at those guys and they were going WAY too early in my mind, so I got stuck with some real reaches there. I can only hope 2 of the 3 wannabe closers work out so I can climb to 4 or 5 points in saves.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
Adam Dunn in round 7 was a nice pick. I think he crushes his projections. I also liked Brad Fullmer in round 10, although the Rotowire projections for him might be generous, but he does move from the 25th best hitters park to the best park. I liked my last 4 pitching picks of Lieber, May, J. Mateo and Quantrill, all of which were in the 20th round or later. Billy Koch, who at least has a season with 44 saves under his belt, may be a bargain in round 16 or he could be a huge bust.
Greg Maddux was a huge reach in round 5. I think I got WHIP-blind on that one. Clement may cost me in round 8 as well if he doesn't get his head out of his butt - I'm counting on him for k's.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
bmd has a team with the makings of "boom or bust" - Drew, L. Walker, Burrell, Grieve and high ceiling but with risk pitchers in Affeldt, Morris, Myers and Weaver. smartone's strategy of punting TWO pitching categories is certainly interesting!
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
It shouldn't have surprised me that people were as sharp as they were......but it did. It was rare when a player slipped too far.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
My focus on OBP and SLG was probably too keen. Halfway through the draft I realized I would be weak in RBI. I also probably stretched too much with some of the starters I picked and could have secured superior hitters or a closer before dipping into the SP pool. But that's nitpicking.
Outlook
The various projections have me weak in places I knew I would be (RBI, saves) and surprisingly not as strong as I thought I would be in ERA specifically and K's to an extent. Considering that the four posted projections have me 4th twice and 6th twice, I'll take that as a compliment since I wasn't drafting purely on projections compared to some other managers that relied upon them more heavily. I am hopeful that skillful management of my pitchers will take care of the ERA blunder, that my instincts are correct with some saves guys as well as the ability to make some trades to bolster weak, identifiable categories (RBI, saves) will take me to the title.
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| 9 | Trip
Donor
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 20:03
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Preparation:
To prepare for the draft I downloaded a set of 2004 projected stats. The next step was to write functions based on the ESPN player rater which gave an overall rating for each player based upon each of the scoring categories. I was surprised to see how much those ratings agreed with my draft list which I had prepared for my other drafts. For the players which appeared out of place I looked at their three-year splits to see if I was still in disagreement, and if necessary, corrected the stats to a more reasonable projection. I updated these stats based upon injury reports and articles that I read throughout the draft. The next step was to group the individual positions into tiers, and finally, ranking them. Sleepers, players who I had projected higher than most people probably had them ranked, were then moved down in my overall rankings.
Strategies going in:
Grab a draft slot near the end, my favorite draft slot would be 3 or 14 (which I got) – this gives me the ability draft two players in a row by paying attention to their tendencies and team’s makeup. Success - Seven times out of twelve I got my consecutive picks, in effect trading up 28 draft slots overall.
Take the best player available (according to my rankings) in the first 5 rounds. Failure – I reached for a reliever in the fifth, should have taken Garret Anderson (best player on the board by far).
Don’t be afraid to take outfielders early – with the depth of this league, OF will be at a premium. Success, I landed five solid OF in the draft.
Don’t fall below certain tiers at starting positions – but let them fall into place (don’t reach). Success, I didn’t do worse than a “C” at any of my starting position with the exception of MI (Rivas - E).
Grab a pitching staff anchor. Success, K. Brown.
Get two closers with stable jobs. Success, Rhodes and Nathan.
Fill out the MI slots early. Failure, I would have had to have reached further than I felt comfortable doing, yet I did not leave myself as weak as others at this position. I should get a fair amount of steals from Rivas and Kennedy.
My overall entry strategy was a success. I thought that the draft went very well for me. I do need Nevin and Millar to recover from their injuries and Jackson to secure his spot in the Dodgers rotation.
Favorite Picks:
I think my best picks were Vernon Wells in the 3rd and D Willis, Woody Williams, & Corey Patterson in rounds 11-13. Garret Anderson (darkside) in the 6th was a steal, as were Rivera (hen-5.05) and Pettite (Yokel-10.16). The only pick I would like to take back is missing Anderson by 4 picks. My first reliever could have waited.
Teams I like the most:
Two of the teams that I like used strategies, which I am not especially fond of. I felt that Guru was drafting the middle relievers too early, while ignoring his hitting slots. Smartone loaded up his bench with position players and does not even have a full pitching staff to start the season.
Surprises:
I had expected a manager or two to punt the save category. I was particularly surprised with the amount of middle relievers taken in the middle rounds. I realize that in a league this deep that middle relievers will be necessary to help hold down the ratio categories and to pick up the occasional save, but thought that they went higher than their possible contributions warranted. I was planning to grab a few since quality starting pitching is so scarce, but kept plugging away and filling out my position players. I was happy with the group that I could scrounge up in the end rounds.
Hindsight:
I would not have done anything differently. I was surprised with how good a pitching staff I was able to put together as I was focused mainly on the hitters. It was a privilege to be able to participate in this competitive a league and I think that I held my own.
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| 10 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 217351118
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 20:08
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Early Strategy
The first part of the plan going in was to concentrate on the best talent available in the early rounds. I had decided if that meant holding 3 outfielders after 4 rounds, so be it. My reasoning was that in a league this size, I couldn't afford to be concerned with trying to balance roster requirements or categories because I was sure that I would have trouble finding the resources to address the weak spots that began to address themselves very early on. The other part of the early plan was to weigh the averaging categories more heavily than the counting stats. I've always found it easier to find ways to address deficiencies in RBIs or Wins than it is to bring up my team ERA or OBP.
I also decided early on that in filling out my neglected positions in the later rounds, that I would be better served going with young players with budding potential rather than veterans whose limitations are easier to gauge.
I'm very pleased with my execution of the first 4 rounds, and I think my strategy served me well through that time. I think my later round strategy fell into place as well and I am very optimistic about selections Aaron Miles, Horatio Ramirez and Craig Wilson.
Unfortunately, I believe I stuck with my early strategy too long. I should have had the foresight to wrap it up or put it on hold and pick a solid closer in the 5th round.
Favorite Picks
Round 10 - Mike Hampton. I think the potential for it all to come together for him is great in 2004. Lefties often don't bloom until their 30s (see Al Leiter, David Wells, Jamie Moyer and many others). In my opinion, he has the best potential going into 2004 of any starting pitcher taken after the 6th round.
Round 14 - Craig Wilson. This could be a serious coup if he gets his playing time.
Regrettable Picks/What I Would Do Over
Round 5 - Brandon Webb. Don't get me wrong, I'm high on him and think he stands a good chance to improve on his '03. But I should have taken a closer here.
Round 6 - Joe Borowski. The result of selecting Webb in round 5, some 25 picks earlier. I'd be very pleased with Borowski as my #2 closer (though that would be highly unlikely in this league - at least for me), but as my firs one I am pretty insecure about my save situation.
Other Teams
I'm so bad at this. Looking them over, I think Ref sports possibly the fewest major question marks of the teams with relatively good balance through the first half of the draft.
Guru's team stands out as well, but he selected two players, Preston Wilson and Carlos Lee, that I shied away from in the early rounds in spite of their SLG prowess because of the low OBP they bring.
Biggest Surprises
I'm embarrassed to admit it, but I was blindsided by the closer run that started immediately after 5th round pick. I feel like I should have been the one to start the closer run.
My other big surprise was a lack of focus I perceived on some of the lesser known rookies and young players. I expected greater competition for players like Aaron Miles, Termel Sledge, Tike Redman and Chase Utley.
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| 11 | beastiemiked
ID: 262411016
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 21:06
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General Strategy
Before the draft I was set on picking players that are not risky. That quickly went out the window as I realized that I'd rather have shot at first rather than a guaranteed spot in the middle of the pack. My hitting strategy was based on picking guys that have consistently had high OBP% and high SLG%. I tried to pick hitters that would get 10-15 steals because I knew that I was not going to pick a guy that was going to devastate my OBP and SLG numbers. I had tossed around the idea of not drafting a catcher or MI but figured if either started hurting my numbers I could just bench that spot later in the year.
Being at the end of one side of the draft I figured I'd grab a closer before a closer ran started. I would rather pick a premier closer to early than be stuck with a 2nd rate closer that might lose his job midway through June.
Other than making sure I got a closer I didn't really have much pitcher strategy. I picked guys that I thought have potential to have great seasons but could turn up to be busts. Hopefully their spring training numbers aren't any indication of how well they'll do this year.
Favorite Picks
I really liked Rolen late 2nd round. I thought for sure he'd be gone but luckily the top 3rd baseman slipped to me. Drew and Burrell in the 10th and 12th rounds could be amazing picks or complete busts. I'm hoping one of them can live up to their potential. My favorite pitching picks were Hawkins in the 14th and Claussen in the 24th.
Do Over
I probably wouldn't pick Reggie Sanders in the 11th or Klesko in the 9th. Both are over the hill and probably won't live up to expectations.
Teams I like
Hmm, looking at all the other teams I couldn't find one I really liked, not even mine. Very balanced league in which I think just about every team could win.
Surprises
None really. This is a top notch league so I expected the best and got it.
Start Over?
I definitely wouldn't start over. I like my team plus I have really tired of slow online drafts. I think next year the draft should be a fast online one.
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| 12 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 52347519
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 23:30
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General Strategy
I can't say that I had a pre-defined strategy for this draft other than to pick A-Rod first. The rest comes down to monitoring the dynamics of the draft and adjusting my picks accordingly. In the first couple of rounds I wanted to get elite hitters and pitchers without any history of injury. Picking first had a huge effect on my strategy as the draft progressed. With 30 selections in between my set of picks, I had zero chance of getting the third guy on my list each time. And, more imporantly, as it turned out, I either had to anticipate runs, or I would miss out.
So, when with my fourth pick I decided on another starting pitcher, it turns out that I missed the closer run. When it got back to me 10 more had been taken in addition to the two that were already gone. At that point, I couldn't justify picking any of the guys that were left. So I ended up with a very strong set of starting pitchers that allowed me to get setup men and backup position players later when other teams were getting their fourth and fifth starters. My pitching corps was rounded out with a couple third-tier closers and some valuable middle-relievers.
On the hitting side, I tried to always pick players with high SLG and OBP, and figured the runs and rbi would follow. I did get Juan Pierre for steals, but he’s the only true stolen base threat on my team.
Favorite Picks / Regrets
I really like the starting pitchers I ended up with – Mussina, Colon, C. Zambrano, Pettitte, and Odalis Perez. Pettitte and Perez could be real steals in the 10th and 16th rounds, respectively. On the hitting side, I think Hideki Matsui in the 8th round could turn out to be big. He’s already got 4 homeruns this spring compared to 16 for all of last season. With him, A-Rod, and Mussina, I might not mind watching the Yanks this year.
Regrets – I had debated picking up Rivera before the closing run started, and maybe I should have. Depending on how Colon fares in Anaheim, that may have been a better move.
Other teams
I don’t know, I have a hard time believing that smartone will compete with punting two pitching categories. (Maybe, I’m just saying this because I chickened out of completely punting even one). But I know from our hoops league that he won’t be shy about pulling the trigger and making some trades. And I think it was obvious from his pick of Valverde (if not Marte) what Guru was doing with his pitching. But he was effective and jumped on guys early that I know I was planning on getting. I think a key to how things will turn out will be the utilization of the bench – I’ve taken the approach of filling mine with veteran hitters in the hope that they can contribute.
Surprises
I guess I was a little surprised at how stressful this draft ended up being. With all the managers so well-prepared, no one was falling through the cracks, and at times I struggled with some of my picks. This probably was a good thing as I was so concerned with how I was faring that I spent the time to build a spreadsheet to keep an ongoing set of standings. In doing so, I saw that with rotowire’s projections I was consistently in the top three or four (which was also a surprise).
Re-do?
The only thing I might change is which draft position I chose. What swayed me was the chance to have A-Rod in the Yankees lineup. I really think he will excel in the pinstripes. What I hadn’t anticipated was that so many of my decisions would be dictated by picking on the end. If there was a position that I felt I needed to fill, I might have to jump the gun in selecting a player because of the slim chance that he would make it back to me (see B. Mueller, Spezio, C. Zambrano).
now I'm just ready for the season to start.
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| 13 | Tosh
Sustainer
ID: 57721710
Mon, Mar 22, 2004, 23:38
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1. Plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
- (a) I didn’t really enter the draft with any specific must-have players in mind, nor was I willing to try some sort of cock-a-maney strategy (like the LIMA plan) that I’ve read about, but tried to pick the best available player the first five rounds, and follow a few basic rules the rest of the way. These include … Try to get a solid contributor at all positions with a reliable backup for all. Try to get a top-tier closer early and 3-4 starting pitchers that go in the 6-10 rounds that won’t ruin my percentage categories. Avoid old guys and injury-prone guys, and pick up a few younger potential ‘break-out’ players that finished strong last year. (b) I definitely stuck to the plan, and have a full-time starter as a backup at all positions. This plan unfortunately leaves me with a poor ERA, and SLG%, but I plan to use my depth as trade bait later in the season.
2. What were your favorite picks? Which do you wish you could do over?
- (a) I am actually happiest with two of my backups (Khalil Greene and Brian Roberts) as they appear to be reliable contributors for most of the season. Overall, I think my entire infield is quite solid. I certainly need a couple breakout years from players like Crede, O. Cabrera and Nick Johnson to see positive returns. (b) I’m still not sure if Soriano at the #3 pick overall was the correct move, as Helton or Beltran also would look real nice at this slot, but the position scarcity of Soriano (and what if he becomes SS eligible!) maybe makes him the second most valuable fantasy player overall. I can never talk bad about Ichiro, but taking him in the 4th round instead of a SP (Colon), or a corner infielder (Blalock, Lowell or Thomas) with some bat may have been a mistake. I probably have too much speed overall and not enough stick. I will certainly watch Foulke daily, and hope that he never gets hurt, because otherwise I really wasted a 3rd rounder when I could have gotten someone to improve my SLG% and waited until the 5th and lead off the closer run.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
- Overall, I think Guru, Peter N., and Species had the best drafts, though I see holes in all three. Guru and Peter N seem light in starting pitchers, and Species seems light in relievers, but all three teams have a nice cache of hitters. It’s a very even league overall.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
- Without a doubt, the knowledge of the managers, and the absence of picks I thought were just plain bad. Making more than a 4-person queue was impossible, because it just kept disappearing.
5. If you could start over, would you do anything differently?
- During the early phase, when we were picking our draft position, I should have picked 2nd instead of 3rd. Pujols would have been a nice foundation to build around. I probably could have taken Beltran or Helton at #3, but I certainly don’t consider this a fatal mistake. Other than that first round, I am satisfied overall. It’s tough to pick at the ends of a snake draft because it’s 30 picks until my next round of selections. You really have to look 2 rounds into the future to see what’s available before making your selection for the current round.
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| 14 | blue hen
ID: 4300290
Tue, Mar 23, 2004, 01:24
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General Strategy
If you've ever played in a league with me, you'll notice my affinity for three categories: saves, walks (for batters) and strikeouts (for pitchers). In my first ever fantasy draft, I decided mid-way that I was going to tank saves. I actually drafted (then crappy) Andy Ashby ahead of (then studly) Jose Mesa. Never again. I actually wound up 3rd out of 12 that season in saves and have never looked back. You can never have too many saves, especially in ESPN-style leagues with a starts limit. I generally draft two or three starters and the rest relievers.
The best indicator of a pitcher's future success is his strikeout ratio. That's why I love Oliver Perez. He's been lousy up to now, but his strikeout rate is historic for a player of any age. At his young age, it's off the charts. I usually do well in strikeouts because I get a lot of crappy pitchers who strike out a lot of batters.
I never draft Garrett Anderson. As a disciple of Billy Beane, I love my walks too, and it shows on my fantasy teams. I have a tendency to overvalue my favorite player, Frank Thomas (since displaced by Jim Thome) and I was ecstatic when the Phillies traded for the human walk machine: Jeremy Giambi. There's never a shortage of walks on my team. Which is great in RIBC.
The only other strategy is not to overdraft the tough-to-find positions like shortstop and catcher. One year I took Mike Piazza and Scott Rolen with my first two picks and watched as other teams loaded up on the Delgados, Heltons, and Giambis of the world and blew me out of the water. I've since abandoned the strategy and just try to get something useful out of those positions unless it's staring me in the face.
Execution
I chose the fifth pick knowing I'd probably get Mark Prior. He was second on my list, but I figured I could wait and get him a few picks later and draft that much sooner in the 2nd round.
It worked like a charm. Prior could be one of those stud starters that would allow me to get the closers I covet, and Giambi is the OPS machine I needed. I was very happy to get those two, and I think I would have had to take a huge step down from Giambi if I'd drafted a couple picks later.
On the way back I took Piazza, and, as noted above, filled a position of scarcity. That's fine though, because I already had the two guys I want, and I consider Piazza a decent bet to be the best catcher in baseball. To get a guy like that 37 picks in is great. Looking back, I had several chances to get catchers later, but I'm fine with how this played out.
I took Rivera in Round 5, after the big guns were gone, and it started a huge closer run, as I noted in my rationale. That's all you can hope for. The start of the run involved me taking Rivera, and someone took Borowski! Talk about equal value.
Though Rivera was a great pick, I was now in the 6th round with no middle infielders. Not only did I jump on Luis Castillo here (over Andruw Jones, who I rate significantly higher), but the dearth came back to haunt me later.
That's essentially it. The rest of the draft was filling out my roster with guys like Juan Gonzalez and John Olerud. I got lucky to get Clemens in Round 8, but my team was pretty much set by that point.
Best Picks
Rivera: started a closer run of epic proportions
Clemens: my second stud starter, much later than expected
Clayton: hey, if it worked for Jeff Cirillo and Jeffrey Hammonds...
Crain: he'll be fine and will close by the end of the year
Castro: just what the doctor ordered backing up Piazza
Worst picks
Castillo: a necessary reach. I stick by it
Chacon: he did lock up saves, but I already had one unsteady closer
Weeks: guess I didn't Punto the infield after all
Who I'm Gunning For
I am utterly amazed that Guru's team isn't better. Some picks were good, as expected, but he really shot himself in the foot in a few places. He'll be decent, but not the world beater I expected. Clearly, beastiemiked is the team to beat. I handed him Pujols on a silver platter (from his favorite team no less), but he always seemed to take two guys I wanted as the draft snaked. His team is great and he's a force to be reckoned with.
Summary
Wow. This was quite challenging. And it only gets worse from here. Two of Guru's projections had me at 14th and 15th, and I'm not THAT worried about those, but finishing in the first division will be a challenge. It's a credit to all you guys.
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| 15 | StLCards
Leader
ID: 31010716
Thu, Mar 25, 2004, 11:06
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I'm not in this league, but looking over the rosters I think a lot of it will be determined by management of the team over the course of the year and timely trades/pickups.
Overall there are some teams that are very strong in a few categories and then are awful in other categories, while other teams just seem so-so across the board. My personal opinion is that a team will have to be top 5 in most categories to win with maybe 3 categories no worse than middle of the pack.
It is hard to pick any one team and the drafting skills of all are very apparent. If I were going to take over a team to manage I think I would probably pick J's team. His pitching stats are going to be awesome in every category which is very hard to do. His hitting is certainly not the best, but you can still win with guys like Guzman and Alfonzo. At least he should be able to add a player here and there to make up some points in runs/steals/rbi's or whatever he needs later. His most glaring weakness is in the middle infield, but I like adding a player like Walker, who is too good to sit and is better than lots of other options.
I do like some other teams as well. I know ref will field a competitive team, but I think his pitching is suspect. I think there are too many question marks on BMD's team for it too be consistent over the whole year. If Griffey stays healthy then Slackjawed Yokel can do well, but only if he can add a closer somewhere before saves kill him, IMO. Jumpball also has a very intriguing team, but only if his outfield can produce.
Should be fun to watch the moves made over the season and see how it plays out. Good luck to all you guys and great job on the draft and rationales!
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| 16 | TB
Leader
ID: 31811922
Fri, Mar 26, 2004, 17:27
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I enjoyed watching the draft unfold. Reading the intelligent, insightful, and sometimes humorous rationales has been a pleasure.
Any chance you can consolidate all the rationales into one thread and make it a keeper?
Good luck to all during the season.
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