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Subject: Swirve Game
Posted by: coldwater coyotes
- [535441512] Tue, Jun 22, 2004, 22:48
Perhaps this has been covered in a previous thread:
The overall leaders of the game appear to be playing a
completely different strategy to me. They are way ahead but
have taken much bigger write offs from early terminations. I
am guessing that they are picking up Pitchers for the obligatory
10 days then immediately extending for an additional 5 days.
Then following the pitcher's outing they are cancelling the
contract......14 days early. (The rules do not allow us to cancel
contract with less than 10 days available).
One would expect that this strategy can not work for a whole
season but it would seem that there will come a point that the
"traditional" players will have to switch to this other strategy. |
| 1 | ukula
ID: 20831621
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 00:10
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cc - it's similar to a horse race where a horse bolts out to a huge lead and is passed by all the other horses at the top of the stretch. We haven't reached the top of the stretch yet.
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| 2 | Species
Leader
ID: 7724916
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 11:24
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It is not a legitimate strategy.....at least to the level in which the current leaders are employing it. Conceivably, at the very beginning of the season, you could employ this strategy with cheap starters (i.e. under $15k) and absorb the termination cost over the whole season. Thus, early on, terminating a $15k pitcher in the beginning might only cost you $150.00/day. But these guys will terminate anyone after one start and have already charged up over $100k/day in termination costs - talk about running up your credit cards!
There are times it's worthwhile to terminate a pitcher after one start - i.e. a very favorable single start on a light day of games when the pitcher you really want pitches the next day. But doing what the leaders are doing will not win.
That's always been a "problem" with Swirve (and completely unintentional, I"m sure) was that it was VERY difficult to get a true read on where you stood in the game. Remember back in the days when you had your whole season's salary cap given to you on Day 1? And it whittled down from there.....where you had to look at the 'efficiency leaders' to have any clue where you were.......now THAT was a fun and strategic game.
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| 3 | Pops
ID: 2517239
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 11:42
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How is everyone doing?
I'm Houston Hotshots in the rotoguru.com division.
I have Jeter/Marquis/Valverde locked up for the rest of the year.
That Valverde thing has not worked out at all, I think I might have jumped on the horse a little early there.
Marquis under 14K and Jeter under 27K both seem like nice pick ups though.
Before Huff got hot I signed him through July 24, but as of the last 10 days he has really dropped off.
At one time or another I have thought about Mauer/Dye/Carpenter/Rhodes/Nathan/Vidro as duration holds, but I decided against it. Aaron Miles backfired on me earlier (hence the term fee) and I have been very hesitant to make that committment.
Also, I don't want to lock up more than 3 pitching slots, and if I don't cut Valverde that leaves me with only 1 remaining slot. Burnett would look awfully solid there if he can hold up.
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| 4 | blue hen
ID: 372102211
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 13:48
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I was actually atop the Swirve leaderboard for a couple days by spending it all real quick...
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| 5 | Valkyrie
ID: 5582119
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 14:41
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Only way I see to do this analysis is to do some form of efficiency comparison.
Initial thoughts-quick and dirty
season is 180 days long, salary cap 420K for about $76M a year. We have played 80 days $34M, with 100 to go $42M.
Top teams have used 250K of cap space or 25M for rest of year leaving about 17M i.e used 59M of $76 to score 24300 points = 411 points per Mil
the remaining 17M should produce about 8500 more points for a total of 32800 +500 bonus.
A decent team say yours or mine has 17000 points and used $34M of the cap with $42M remaining ( 500 pts per mil per day). We can expect to score 21000 more points for a total of 38,000.
Conclusion anytime you can expect to score more than 500 points per million for your total termination costs it probably makes sense??
Does this sound accurate??
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| 6 | coldwater coyotes
ID: 535441512
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 20:08
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Looks correct to me.....now all I need is for you to tell me the
day when I need to switch to taking on 15 day pitchers? A rough
guess would be 50 days left in the season?
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| 7 | j o s h
ID: 465511821
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 20:29
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the later in the season the higher the term fee's
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| 8 | Valkyrie
ID: 5582119
Wed, Jun 23, 2004, 21:33
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Actually upon re-reading how the cap reduction works I think the cost is the same whenever the termination takes place. The cost is 50% of the remainder of the contract or on a 15 day termination 7.5 times the cost of the contract times .0005 (500/1,000,000). This is true because the cap reduction is computed on a daily basis by taking the termination cost and pro rating it on a daily basis for the rest of the season. ergo a max $375K termination cost day 1 reduces your daily cap by $2083 everyday for the rest of the season whereas the same current reduction would reduce your daily cap by $3750 per day.
Either way the total reduction when compared to the yearly cap available (cap per day times 180 days) is $375K out of approximately $76M. Looks like a $50,000 contract needs 188 points to be justified and a $25000 contract would need 94 points.
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| 9 | ukula
ID: 10527248
Thu, Jun 24, 2004, 11:45
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I just completed an analysis on the top 100 loosely based upon Valkyrie's assumptions in post 5.
This is what I did:
1. There are 99 days left in the season.
2. I took a salary cap of 420K/day for the rest of the year (I disregarded the small daily increase since it is the same for all teams). 99 days x 420K = 41.58 million left for a team with no termination costs. If a team has termination costs, that number is multiplied by 99 and subtracted from the 41.58 to give us the salary cap remaining for each team. For example, The Sherwood Forest Archers (currently in 1st) have 262,556 in termination costs, leaving them with only 15.59 million to spend over the balance of the year (420,000-262,556)*99).
3. The salary cap remaining for the year is then multiplied by 500 pts/million to estimate how many points each team will score over the balance of the year. A team with no termination costs can expect to score 20,790 points over the balance of the season (41.58*500).
4. This projected number was then added to each team's current points (less bonus points) to give us a projection for the year. I subtracted the bonus points because not every team has received their bonus points yet but in the end I'm sure all contending teams will have the 500 point bonus.
5. The top projection is 41,240 to the team currently in 17th (Yankee fans). There are 14 teams that project out over 40,000 points. The Houston Hotshots (post 3) are 7th at 40,278. There are another 27 that project out between 39,000 and 39,999.
6. No player can win more than one overall prize but it's difficult to know if any of these top teams are run by the same people.
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| 10 | Valkyrie
ID: 35422419
Thu, Jun 24, 2004, 20:43
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Thanks Ukula that is interesting.
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| 11 | Pops
ID: 2517239
Fri, Jun 25, 2004, 10:23
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Fantastic output ukula.
Do you happen to have a spreadsheet or another type of file with this information?
I'd love to be able to track myself against the 6 on pace to finish ahead of me.
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| 12 | ukula
ID: 3355258
Fri, Jun 25, 2004, 10:55
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I have the spreadsheet all set up - if someone can guide me as to how to insert an Excel worksheet into this thread I can update it periodically. I'd probably just update the projected top 20 or so, as I have to enter the numbers manually.
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| 13 | wolfer
ID: 58546215
Fri, Jun 25, 2004, 17:22
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But isn't the reasoning in #9 flawed as we are allowed to go over the cap by 10%?
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| 14 | Pops
ID: 2517239
Fri, Jun 25, 2004, 17:47
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It's not really optimal though to maintain a figure above the cap for more than a few days at a time.
I guess unless you had C. Guillen in the low 20's, ARod at 32, Jeter at 24, Pujols in the low 40's, Rolen in the high 30's, Carpenter at 16, Sheets in the mid 20's, V Martinez in the mid 20's... etcetc
It would be remarkable if an over the cap lineup could consistently outperform an active manager who rotates starters.
The exception to this would be if the Rockies played an obscene amount of home games in a particular month, or some other anomaly. But as it is, I think what ukula has works. The OTC effects are not material IMO.
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| 15 | Valkyrie
ID: 35422419
Fri, Jun 25, 2004, 23:50
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Pops even then you would have 6 pitchers you couldn't rotate LOL- I managed to stay over the cap by 20K for 3 days but then alonmg cmae Schmidt LOL
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