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Subject: The 1st half in Ultimate, looking back...
Posted by: smallwhirled
- [58521513] Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 14:21
This is something I may want to look at prior to Ultimate Basebeall 2005 barring rule changes...
I am okay with where I'm sitting at right now, and top 50 is definitely attainable I think:
TSNP: 15575 WWR: 174 TRV: 86.52 PT: 2 HT: 1
First off, as big as closer trains have been, I think that mid priced/stud SPs have been even more profitable. I'm not gonna complain, I have a huge RV, but it has costed me tons of PTs early in the year.
Herges, Rhodes, Hoffman, Graves 1 and 2, Benitez 1 and 2, Rivera, Lidge were all pretty big trains, and worth the trades in and out if you like going for RV. But there were too many of the Nathan's, Cordero's, KRod's, Hoffman's, etc, etc, that I thought would've been big time trains that just fizzled out. So, I think I'll stay away from potential closer trains and stick more to trains that are more definite next year.
Cheap SPs never became big trains at all. No Padilla/Odalis and no Loiaza/Chacon. Many time,s I looked for a cheapie with a halfway decent stretch of 3 starts and tried to get in early and it backfired every time. I think I was trying to stay as efficient as I could even when trying to incorporate a cheapie and it was a mistake. I should've waited for the good game and then went in, I would've realized that they were never going to happen and I would've saved more PTs.
The upper echelon pitchers are dominating the price movers and have been for a while. Definitely wish I could've incorporated even more of those along the way, I'd be over 90 mil if I had....
I want to say that 75% of my gains are from pitching, it's even more prevelant than past years, it's really the way to go. The Santana, Sheets, Penny, Clemens, Oswalt, Willis, Beckett, Pavano, etc, etc, etc trains have just been insane, so maybe I'll even stay away from the really big guys more often next year just so I can pick up more of the above mentioned type trains.
I think day-late was the way to go with the Mussina starts. Nobody thought he'd be that bad before the season, but that kinda messed everything up early as I didn't get off on the right foot making RV, day late and I think I'd also be over 90 mil.
I have found success just going completely away from hitter trains. I've only picked up a handful over the last couple of months, concentrating my money making with hitters but making sure that I'd always have out trades on my hitters. I have been trading the dollar losers, but not going into the dollar gainers. Guys that were staying pretty steady in price became really long term holds for me. Burnitz I held for over 2 months. Rondell White about a month and a half, that really helped me out and I didn't have to absorb any unwanted hitter losses.
Damn, that was a long post, but it was just what I thought about the 1st half and what kind of stuff I'd be able to improve on next year. |
1 | Motley Crue Sustainer
ID: 439372011 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 14:55
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After recent calculations, I have figured out that 86.52 million is when to stop $$ making & Go for WWR 86.52 that is, to have a PERFECT Team
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2 | bookie
ID: 394382410 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 15:15
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Good post SW... I agree with a much of your thinking... I too got burnt too often by chasing the cheapie starter trains, but I'm still comfortable with the closer trains, it's just that some of them maxed out too soon, because of a to rapid an influx of buys. With TSN having the price muting affect in the calculation, those gains were not nearly as much as they could have been without the muting on heavy buys/sells. That didn't happen to just closers, but it seemed more prevalant with them than with some of the starters, probably because of the significant lesser buys on non start days.
I too missed out on quite a few of the midpriced starter trains.. Clemens, the first 2 or 3 Santana starts, sheets. I did however get Pavano and think that this may be the best source of early money, in conjunction with the closers...
As for hitter trains, because of how quickly they come and go, you really can't try to get them all or you'll quickly be out of ht's... Early on, I was doing good always having at least 1ht left on Thursday.. Lately though, I've been chasing every train and running out of trades.. this of course will stop now that the ASB is here.... I'll go back to selectively getting trains...
Also, like you, I try to always sell big losers (although, I think I'll make an exception for Victor) and don't always go into a train either..
Day late is definitely the way go IMHO as money does matter... I just did a quick look at my "ideal" lineup and I would need about $105 million to buy it, so that likely won't happen.
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3 | R9 Leader
ID: 2624472 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 15:49
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There have definitely been a few differences this year then last year. Last year, closers were an excellent way to save PT's, since they were very price stable. Cheapie SP's were the way to make money and hitter trains seemed to last longer. This year, mid-priced SP's are the big cash cows, with closers not far behind. Closers though, have been a terrible way to preserve PT's, since alot of them have crashed after a nice train.
If things are the same next year (and this year proves no two years are the same) I'd probably spend more of my PT's making cash, while only boarding the obvious and sure-fire hitter trains. For the most part, the hitter trains haven't seemed worth it. I'm always short HT's, and never get more then 300-400K from a top-end train. On the other hand, it seemed like every day I was making 400-500K on my 5 pitchers. With 5-day repricing, its very simple to determine which pitchers will make for a nice 10-14 day, 1 mil gain.
I'm still in decent shape, with a 290 WWR, 80 mil RV and 8 PT's banked. I'll be glad to see Prior, Wood and maybe Brown and Mussina enter the pitching equation, as I think many of our rotations coming out of the break are identical. How many people have RJ/Schmidt/Clemens/Santana/Sheets? Would be nice to see some differentiation possible there...
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4 | ukula
ID: 6181313 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:36
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I just ran my AS Break projections using the following assumptions: PT worth 60 points HT worth 15 points 1 Mil in RV worth 1.5 points x 81 (days left) I then calculated projected points for the top 200 and only took the team with the best projection for each manager. This left 144 teams which are summarized below. Rank Rank | Team | Manager | Pts | PT | HT | RV | PPts | PRank | 18 | ShortTandemRepeat | ccchen2 | 16,250 | 21 | 2 | $84,330,000 | 27,786 | 1 | 1 | Classics4 | jimwhite311 | 17,147 | 11 | 0 | $80,020,000 | 27,529 | 2 | 6 | SANFORDORS1 | SANFORDORS | 16,506 | 5 | 1 | $84,230,000 | 27,055 | 3 | 36 | Cymbaline | cymbaline | 16,079 | 9 | 8 | $83,180,000 | 26,845 | 4 | 23 | Christ Punchers | beezle_bubba | 16,183 | 5 | 3 | $84,900,000 | 26,843 | 5 | 74 | 7th Inning Stretch | pancho_villa | 15,859 | 11 | 1 | $84,360,000 | 26,784 | 6 | 19 | wahoo warriors | gd.tribe | 16,212 | 3 | 1 | $85,260,000 | 26,766 | 7 | 30 | Rod Farva | beastiemiked2 | 16,118 | 6 | 3 | $82,990,000 | 26,606 | 8 | 37 | Rockets21 | rockets21 | 16,071 | 3 | 3 | $84,780,000 | 26,597 | 9 | 9 | William Hungs Bangin All Starz | sporting321 | 16,465 | 4 | 5 | $80,520,000 | 26,563 | 10 | 25 | Peter N. | fmjaguar | 16,146 | 1 | 0 | $84,730,000 | 26,501 | 11 | 14 | crvo2004C | roy2013 | 16,315 | 1 | 1 | $83,080,000 | 26,484 | 12 | 108 | Vinny "Snake Eye's" Wilson | Kurth | 15,754 | 15 | 3 | $80,470,000 | 26,476 | 13 | 82 | Toc the Younger | Sauvage | 15,821 | 8 | 1 | $83,500,000 | 26,461 | 14 | 169 | Alien Being | Coconut | 15,592 | 12 | 2 | $83,210,000 | 26,452 | 15 | 94 | ROBBIE XV | ROBBIE III | 15,792 | 7 | 3 | $83,250,000 | 26,372 | 16 | 13 | Juiced | Juiced | 16,346 | 1 | 0 | $81,870,000 | 26,353 | 17 | 16 | Old Man Greene | greenej | 16,284 | 8 | 2 | $77,800,000 | 26,247 | 18 | 123 | Broohaas | Broohaas | 15,689 | 8 | 1 | $82,660,000 | 26,227 | 19 | 175 | smallwhirled's stick | Smallwhirled | 15,575 | 2 | 1 | $86,520,000 | 26,222 | 20 | 27 | From the 'Roy ya'll... | d_rock1417 | 16,140 | 9 | 0 | $78,020,000 | 26,159 | 21 | 49 | The DC / pain | Dale C | 16,011 | 7 | 1 | $79,750,000 | 26,136 | 22 | 48 | pain** | pain | 16,011 | 7 | 1 | $79,750,000 | 26,136 | 23 | 162 | Taiwan ANDO | ANDO | 15,597 | 3 | 0 | $85,070,000 | 26,113 | 24 | 11 | Duck Mania | paco6660 | 16,423 | 10 | 4 | $74,140,000 | 26,091 | 25 | 3 | Classics1 | Home | 16,736 | 0 | 1 | $76,720,000 | 26,072 | 26 | 185 | Spankees Yankees | Strange Rangers | 15,552 | 2 | 3 | $85,130,000 | 26,060 | 27 | 103 | BUZZKILL5 | BIZMANONE | 15,765 | 4 | 0 | $82,580,000 | 26,038 | 28 | 5 | o_4_r_a_w | o_4_r_a_w | 16,539 | 3 | 0 | $76,700,000 | 26,038 | 29 | 12 | TwinsRus | homerunsRus | 16,359 | 1 | 2 | $78,500,000 | 25,987 | 30 | 84 | i'm hot | mal13 | 15,817 | 11 | 1 | $77,950,000 | 25,963 | 31 | 181 | The Busch Leaguers | JayS1123 | 15,567 | 3 | 0 | $83,960,000 | 25,948 | 32 | 59 | KlinesKrushers | LiLPeeper | 15,940 | 6 | 8 | $78,360,000 | 25,941 | 33 | 119 | The Dilligads | Dilligad | 15,708 | 7 | 2 | $79,280,000 | 25,791 | 34 | 148 | rabidruger | rabidrugger | 15,627 | 11 | 1 | $78,010,000 | 25,780 | 35 | 78 | mikulecm | mikulecm | 15,842 | 9 | 1 | $77,210,000 | 25,778 | 36 | 118 | The Gangmen | Gangman | 15,709 | 7 | 3 | $78,860,000 | 25,755 | 37 | 32 | jaggernauts | jaggernauts | 16,102 | 0 | 2 | $79,040,000 | 25,735 | 38 | 154 | DJB42281 | DJB42281 | 15,621 | 9 | 3 | $78,400,000 | 25,732 | 39 | 8 | Dodger Blues 3 | clieberman | 16,482 | 6 | 0 | $73,150,000 | 25,730 | 40 | 114 | Bingham Blue Devils | Bingham Blue Devils | 15,734 | 10 | 0 | $76,870,000 | 25,674 | 41 | 190 | Barbarians at the Foul Lines | portlandcub | 15,528 | 1 | 0 | $82,710,000 | 25,637 | 42 | 93 | NJ Nobodys | tlef316 | 15,793 | 0 | 3 | $80,330,000 | 25,598 | 43 | 136 | Casey at Bat | Mudville2 | 15,661 | 1 | 0 | $81,030,000 | 25,566 | 44 | 22 | Roy Hobbs | JBAmonte | 16,183 | 3 | 2 | $75,480,000 | 25,564 | 45 | 110 | Neshanic Nine #2 | BULLET | 15,749 | 4 | 7 | $77,830,000 | 25,550 | 46 | 98 | Ramblin721 | Ramblin721 | 15,778 | 4 | 2 | $78,180,000 | 25,547 | 47 | 129 | supersuckers | brengeo | 15,676 | 7 | 2 | $77,520,000 | 25,545 | 48 | 7 | spinster | ttomax | 16,496 | 0 | 0 | $74,270,000 | 25,520 | 49 | 143 | DieHard's Impact Players | btanabe | 15,649 | 2 | 0 | $80,030,000 | 25,493 | 50 | 131 | Ford Mexico | CULIACAN | 15,673 | 3 | 2 | $78,930,000 | 25,473 | 51 | 116 | www.dstrom.com | SLIM'S SHADY'S | 15,719 | 10 | 2 | $75,040,000 | 25,466 | 52 | 17 | holyrollers | clackumus | 16,279 | 0 | 1 | $74,970,000 | 25,403 | 53 | 76 | Basking Ridge Schuberts | James Schubert | 15,850 | 12 | 2 | $72,240,000 | 25,377 | 54 | 67 | Bocho | Jose H | 15,881 | 3 | 4 | $75,890,000 | 25,342 | 55 | 140 | GoMariners | gtomariners | 15,656 | 4 | 3 | $77,360,000 | 25,340 | 56 | 200 | Rendles2 | Duker4life | 15,514 | 10 | 2 | $75,130,000 | 25,272 | 57 | 86 | yabana sticks | beebop | 15,809 | 18 | 12 | $67,480,000 | 25,268 | 58 | 172 | Blackdog'sIrish9 | Eisenhower's Eagles | 15,580 | 1 | 0 | $79,020,000 | 25,241 | 59 | 69 | Highland Falls Twins | Highland Falls Twins | 15,879 | 2 | 2 | $75,670,000 | 25,223 | 60 | 99 | Mount Sinai Thunder | rleandry | 15,775 | 5 | 3 | $74,740,000 | 25,201 | 61 | 107 | BayAreaBlueJays | thistle4celtic1 | 15,756 | 1 | 2 | $76,720,000 | 25,167 | 62 | 166 | Piccolos Picks | Piccolos1 | 15,595 | 8 | 3 | $74,350,000 | 25,154 | 63 | 65 | fourscore4 | jhansa | 15,888 | 2 | 1 | $75,140,000 | 25,153 | 64 | 117 | dominican kings | verdugos | 15,716 | 3 | 2 | $75,670,000 | 25,120 | 65 | 87 | Off the Richter | Rags to Richs | 15,807 | 2 | 5 | $74,990,000 | 25,113 | 66 | 70 | Chief Dogs | chiefdogs2000 | 15,875 | 0 | 4 | $75,480,000 | 25,106 | 67 | 115 | BROOKLYN'S FINEST | BROOKLYN'S FINEST | 15,729 | 4 | 1 | $74,970,000 | 25,093 | 68 | 97 | Hans Gruber's Army | oilerman27 | 15,779 | 0 | 3 | $76,150,000 | 25,076 | 69 | 184 | williemays | wstreet | 15,553 | 2 | 2 | $76,920,000 | 25,049 | 70 | 57 | Second is the first loser | Durell711 | 15,967 | 12 | 0 | $68,790,000 | 25,045 | 71 | 88 | CCHRF | flash2 | 15,806 | 8 | 0 | $71,850,000 | 25,016 | 72 | 156 | DIABLO'S DARK LEGION | DIABLO'S DARK LEGION | 15,618 | 3 | 6 | $74,760,000 | 24,971 | 73 | 54 | romona 3 | romona | 15,971 | 6 | 1 | $70,990,000 | 24,971 | 74 | 141 | One team to rule them all | cpccblack | 15,652 | 0 | 0 | $76,660,000 | 24,966 | 75 | 111 | Rundogs | Solo Flyer | 15,744 | 1 | 2 | $75,140,000 | 24,964 | 76 | 196 | B 2 | mal54 | 15,519 | 0 | 0 | $77,270,000 | 24,907 | 77 | 170 | powerslam1 | powermania | 15,590 | 8 | 1 | $72,580,000 | 24,903 | 78 | 60 | banjo | deuces59 | 15,938 | 9 | 2 | $68,910,000 | 24,881 | 79 | 10 | Shotgun Willy | brian66 | 16,436 | 1 | 1 | $68,090,000 | 24,784 | 80 | 66 | Mr. Ass and the Native 2 | ryanbish27 | 15,887 | 0 | 1 | $73,090,000 | 24,782 | 81 | 160 | Backcrackers | payndr | 15,600 | 1 | 2 | $74,770,000 | 24,775 | 82 | 58 | Pucha Po | valdavino | 15,940 | 3 | 4 | $70,360,000 | 24,729 | 83 | 38 | Harpo II | Pohlcat | 16,069 | 1 | 2 | $70,360,000 | 24,708 | 84 | 128 | DOC`S JOCKS | mileskahan | 15,680 | 0 | 0 | $74,120,000 | 24,686 | 85 | 199 | THE YEAR OF THE CUBS | KING OF THE ROAD | 15,515 | 0 | 1 | $75,280,000 | 24,677 | 86 | 52 | Brew City Saints | svendude | 16,000 | 1 | 1 | $70,750,000 | 24,671 | 87 | 152 | capricornrising | cancermoon | 15,624 | 4 | 0 | $72,270,000 | 24,645 | 88 | 71 | Ems | Msalltheway | 15,872 | 4 | 1 | $70,060,000 | 24,639 | 89 | 189 | Middle of the Pack | Dublin Dogs | 15,535 | 0 | 1 | $74,780,000 | 24,636 | 90 | 130 | Quinan Jays | quinan | 15,676 | 0 | 0 | $73,170,000 | 24,566 | 91 | 34 | peter | bfmonkey | 16,092 | 0 | 0 | $69,700,000 | 24,561 | 92 | 72 | The Team That Beat You | The Team That Beat You | 15,872 | 0 | 10 | $70,250,000 | 24,557 | 93 | 29 | manins | ghost_me23 | 16,121 | 2 | 0 | $68,390,000 | 24,550 | 94 | 35 | McDoobies | McDoobies | 16,083 | 0 | 0 | $69,690,000 | 24,550 | 95 | 155 | ST OMPONSETH | niv11 | 15,619 | 0 | 0 | $73,440,000 | 24,542 | 96 | 85 | Clifford the Big Red Dog | IceTCoach | 15,815 | 0 | 1 | $71,570,000 | 24,526 | 97 | 171 | The L2s | Vaj | 15,586 | 2 | 2 | $71,870,000 | 24,468 | 98 | 64 | CoachD's | CoachJ's | 15,896 | 3 | 1 | $68,700,000 | 24,438 | 99 | 177 | Tumble | paparules | 15,569 | 6 | 5 | $69,350,000 | 24,430 | 100 | 157 | NYC Bears | mbstuff | 15,617 | 4 | 3 | $70,130,000 | 24,423 | 101 | 83 | ned's | lizzy04 | 15,818 | 2 | 0 | $69,770,000 | 24,415 | 102 | 124 | Tea - Ball | u0167952 | 15,686 | 0 | 0 | $71,590,000 | 24,384 | 103 | 101 | ups3 | u0015524 | 15,771 | 0 | 1 | $70,330,000 | 24,331 | 104 | 26 | No Time 2Win | countryday | 16,141 | 0 | 3 | $66,730,000 | 24,294 | 105 | 193 | Fredericksburg Red Sox | djnrook | 15,522 | 2 | 2 | $70,940,000 | 24,291 | 106 | 79 | RockRoys | Crash K Ding Dong | 15,841 | 5 | 4 | $66,330,000 | 24,260 | 107 | 182 | Smell The Glove | RoyHobbs | 15,561 | 0 | 0 | $71,440,000 | 24,241 | 108 | 21 | Huckaholics | Huckaholics | 16,187 | 0 | 5 | $65,520,000 | 24,223 | 109 | 178 | The Pie-Eatin' Doctors | surlyhorse | 15,568 | 0 | 1 | $70,790,000 | 24,184 | 110 | 56 | Abein | Abein | 15,968 | 6 | 1 | $64,390,000 | 24,166 | 111 | 164 | Richard Hurts4 | DOHowser | 15,596 | 1 | 3 | $69,500,000 | 24,145 | 112 | 33 | blairs brats | mauma24 | 16,097 | 3 | 2 | $64,270,000 | 24,116 | 113 | 24 | Diamond Rookies | Diamond Rookies | 16,148 | 0 | 0 | $65,150,000 | 24,064 | 114 | 194 | G.K. Magic | gnk555 | 15,521 | 5 | 2 | $67,510,000 | 24,053 | 115 | 195 | MBC FFATS | aleiper | 15,520 | 2 | 2 | $68,390,000 | 23,979 | 116 | 77 | Vader and the Mirkwood ELVES | emyo | 15,849 | 0 | 3 | $65,220,000 | 23,818 | 117 | 161 | spos | the best baby | 15,599 | 1 | 1 | $66,920,000 | 23,805 | 118 | 100 | Uptown Bombers | Gillis | 15,772 | 4 | 4 | $63,430,000 | 23,779 | 119 | 188 | THE PROFESSIONAL | gemmymint | 15,546 | 15 | 1 | $60,070,000 | 23,760 | 120 | 139 | myrtle creek red sox | church's | 15,659 | 0 | 3 | $66,260,000 | 23,755 | 121 | 122 | wannabe winners | will363 | 15,691 | 1 | 5 | $65,170,000 | 23,744 | 122 | 176 | Galena Gangsters | Dogfood81 | 15,571 | 0 | 0 | $67,250,000 | 23,742 | 123 | 39 | BEAU RULZ | MARK DAIKER | 16,066 | 0 | 5 | $62,250,000 | 23,704 | 124 | 31 | Wolfpack 1 | Derek/Jaret | 16,103 | 2 | 6 | $59,920,000 | 23,593 | 125 | 73 | Steel City | brianpitt | 15,866 | 0 | 7 | $62,590,000 | 23,576 | 126 | 147 | Da Newksta | Da NeWk | 15,628 | 1 | 0 | $64,480,000 | 23,522 | 127 | 192 | Airstream Bohemians | nc280 | 15,525 | 4 | 0 | $63,610,000 | 23,494 | 128 | 68 | AlBron | maxweil | 15,880 | 0 | 1 | $62,540,000 | 23,494 | 129 | 183 | GC's Yankees | GCo420x | 15,553 | 1 | 0 | $64,670,000 | 23,470 | 130 | 120 | sleepahs | milz2 | 15,705 | 0 | 2 | $63,470,000 | 23,447 | 131 | 127 | MDF2 | screwjobs | 15,682 | 0 | 6 | $62,970,000 | 23,423 | 132 | 186 | Championship Season | cybernot | 15,549 | 0 | 1 | $63,620,000 | 23,294 | 133 | 168 | Kansas City #29 | buckskins | 15,592 | 0 | 0 | $63,330,000 | 23,287 | 134 | 15 | Titanic | dougsou | 16,311 | 1 | 0 | $56,650,000 | 23,254 | 135 | 63 | cubbies | jimmo | 15,911 | 0 | 0 | $59,960,000 | 23,196 | 136 | 91 | Long Island Mustangs | jimmy196187 | 15,802 | 0 | 4 | $59,680,000 | 23,113 | 137 | 44 | niskadwgs | niskayuna bulldogs | 16,030 | 0 | 4 | $57,760,000 | 23,108 | 138 | 113 | Roughriders | O'Rourke | 15,738 | 0 | 4 | $58,990,000 | 22,965 | 139 | 61 | Bombers Away | alexdefaria | 15,919 | 0 | 28 | $54,420,000 | 22,951 | 140 | 191 | STLTURNTWO | steve spurgetis | 15,526 | 2 | 10 | $56,930,000 | 22,713 | 141 | 197 | Sultans O' Swat | JimFerg | 15,519 | 1 | 7 | $57,400,000 | 22,658 | 142 | 132 | JT RULES! | JTRULESALL | 15,668 | 2 | 3 | $55,600,000 | 22,588 | 143 | 28 | Casa de Dolor | aafhb | 16,129 | 8 | 4 | $87,090,000 | 27,250 | 144 |
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5 | ukula
ID: 6181313 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:40
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Of course there are probably many teams ranked 201+ that project out better than some of these teams, but by using the formula (current points)+(PT*60)+(HT*15)+(RV*1.5*81) you will get an idea of where your team projects out to.
Note: This is for informational purposes only. Please - No Wagering.
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6 | ukula
ID: 6181313 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:42
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Ooops. I just noticed that #144 should actually be ranked # 3. My sort must have missed him.
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7 | smallwhirled
ID: 58521513 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:53
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Thanks for the projection ukula!
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8 | bookie
ID: 394382410 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 17:25
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Interesting.. I don't know about the calculation, but throwing my team out there.. I'm currently ranked WWR 2000, but have 85+mm in RV and compute out to 83rd on your list... I'd like to think I can still crack the top 100, but with my very poor start and the number of teams currently outside the top 200 that project better than me, I'm not so confident that I'll make it....
My division race however, the projection puts me up by only about 100 points and I think I should win easier than that, unless my opponenet changes his current strategy.
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9 | Rick007
ID: 26671213 Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 19:01
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Talk about putting pressure on me...There is no way I'm going to finish 14WWR :)
Thank you ukula
Lets see who lives up to the expectations!
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10 | smallwhirled
ID: 58521513 Thu, Jul 15, 2004, 17:17
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I just hope RV becomes as important as this chart shows by the end, and maybe I can get into the top 20.
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