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0 Subject: The 1st half in Ultimate, looking back...

Posted by: smallwhirled
- [58521513] Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 14:21

This is something I may want to look at prior to Ultimate Basebeall 2005 barring rule changes...

I am okay with where I'm sitting at right now, and top 50 is definitely attainable I think:

TSNP: 15575
WWR: 174
TRV: 86.52
PT: 2
HT: 1

First off, as big as closer trains have been, I think that mid priced/stud SPs have been even more profitable. I'm not gonna complain, I have a huge RV, but it has costed me tons of PTs early in the year.

Herges, Rhodes, Hoffman, Graves 1 and 2, Benitez 1 and 2, Rivera, Lidge were all pretty big trains, and worth the trades in and out if you like going for RV. But there were too many of the Nathan's, Cordero's, KRod's, Hoffman's, etc, etc, that I thought would've been big time trains that just fizzled out. So, I think I'll stay away from potential closer trains and stick more to trains that are more definite next year.

Cheap SPs never became big trains at all. No Padilla/Odalis and no Loiaza/Chacon. Many time,s I looked for a cheapie with a halfway decent stretch of 3 starts and tried to get in early and it backfired every time. I think I was trying to stay as efficient as I could even when trying to incorporate a cheapie and it was a mistake. I should've waited for the good game and then went in, I would've realized that they were never going to happen and I would've saved more PTs.

The upper echelon pitchers are dominating the price movers and have been for a while. Definitely wish I could've incorporated even more of those along the way, I'd be over 90 mil if I had....

I want to say that 75% of my gains are from pitching, it's even more prevelant than past years, it's really the way to go. The Santana, Sheets, Penny, Clemens, Oswalt, Willis, Beckett, Pavano, etc, etc, etc trains have just been insane, so maybe I'll even stay away from the really big guys more often next year just so I can pick up more of the above mentioned type trains.

I think day-late was the way to go with the Mussina starts. Nobody thought he'd be that bad before the season, but that kinda messed everything up early as I didn't get off on the right foot making RV, day late and I think I'd also be over 90 mil.

I have found success just going completely away from hitter trains. I've only picked up a handful over the last couple of months, concentrating my money making with hitters but making sure that I'd always have out trades on my hitters. I have been trading the dollar losers, but not going into the dollar gainers. Guys that were staying pretty steady in price became really long term holds for me. Burnitz I held for over 2 months. Rondell White about a month and a half, that really helped me out and I didn't have to absorb any unwanted hitter losses.

Damn, that was a long post, but it was just what I thought about the 1st half and what kind of stuff I'd be able to improve on next year.
1Motley Crue
      Sustainer
      ID: 439372011
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 14:55
After recent calculations, I have figured out
that 86.52 million is when to stop $$ making & Go for
WWR 86.52 that is, to have a PERFECT Team
2bookie
      ID: 394382410
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 15:15
Good post SW... I agree with a much of your thinking... I too got burnt too often by chasing the cheapie starter trains, but I'm still comfortable with the closer trains, it's just that some of them maxed out too soon, because of a to rapid an influx of buys. With TSN having the price muting affect in the calculation, those gains were not nearly as much as they could have been without the muting on heavy buys/sells. That didn't happen to just closers, but it seemed more prevalant with them than with some of the starters, probably because of the significant lesser buys on non start days.

I too missed out on quite a few of the midpriced starter trains.. Clemens, the first 2 or 3 Santana starts, sheets. I did however get Pavano and think that this may be the best source of early money, in conjunction with the closers...

As for hitter trains, because of how quickly they come and go, you really can't try to get them all or you'll quickly be out of ht's... Early on, I was doing good always having at least 1ht left on Thursday.. Lately though, I've been chasing every train and running out of trades.. this of course will stop now that the ASB is here.... I'll go back to selectively getting trains...

Also, like you, I try to always sell big losers (although, I think I'll make an exception for Victor) and don't always go into a train either..

Day late is definitely the way go IMHO as money does matter... I just did a quick look at my "ideal" lineup and I would need about $105 million to buy it, so that likely won't happen.
3R9
      Leader
      ID: 2624472
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 15:49
There have definitely been a few differences this year then last year. Last year, closers were an excellent way to save PT's, since they were very price stable. Cheapie SP's were the way to make money and hitter trains seemed to last longer. This year, mid-priced SP's are the big cash cows, with closers not far behind. Closers though, have been a terrible way to preserve PT's, since alot of them have crashed after a nice train.

If things are the same next year (and this year proves no two years are the same) I'd probably spend more of my PT's making cash, while only boarding the obvious and sure-fire hitter trains. For the most part, the hitter trains haven't seemed worth it. I'm always short HT's, and never get more then 300-400K from a top-end train. On the other hand, it seemed like every day I was making 400-500K on my 5 pitchers. With 5-day repricing, its very simple to determine which pitchers will make for a nice 10-14 day, 1 mil gain.

I'm still in decent shape, with a 290 WWR, 80 mil RV and 8 PT's banked. I'll be glad to see Prior, Wood and maybe Brown and Mussina enter the pitching equation, as I think many of our rotations coming out of the break are identical. How many people have RJ/Schmidt/Clemens/Santana/Sheets? Would be nice to see some differentiation possible there...
4ukula
      ID: 6181313
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:36
I just ran my AS Break projections using the following assumptions: PT worth 60 points HT worth 15 points 1 Mil in RV worth 1.5 points x 81 (days left) I then calculated projected points for the top 200 and only took the team with the best projection for each manager. This left 144 teams which are summarized below. Rank

Rank

Team

Manager

Pts

PT

HT

RV

PPts

PRank

18

ShortTandemRepeat

ccchen2

16,250

21

2

$84,330,000

27,786

1

1

Classics4

jimwhite311

17,147

11

0

$80,020,000

27,529

2

6

SANFORDORS1

SANFORDORS

16,506

5

1

$84,230,000

27,055

3

36

Cymbaline

cymbaline

16,079

9

8

$83,180,000

26,845

4

23

Christ Punchers

beezle_bubba

16,183

5

3

$84,900,000

26,843

5

74

7th Inning Stretch

pancho_villa

15,859

11

1

$84,360,000

26,784

6

19

wahoo warriors

gd.tribe

16,212

3

1

$85,260,000

26,766

7

30

Rod Farva

beastiemiked2

16,118

6

3

$82,990,000

26,606

8

37

Rockets21

rockets21

16,071

3

3

$84,780,000

26,597

9

9

William Hungs Bangin All Starz

sporting321

16,465

4

5

$80,520,000

26,563

10

25

Peter N.

fmjaguar

16,146

1

0

$84,730,000

26,501

11

14

crvo2004C

roy2013

16,315

1

1

$83,080,000

26,484

12

108

Vinny "Snake Eye's" Wilson

Kurth

15,754

15

3

$80,470,000

26,476

13

82

Toc the Younger

Sauvage

15,821

8

1

$83,500,000

26,461

14

169

Alien Being

Coconut

15,592

12

2

$83,210,000

26,452

15

94

ROBBIE XV

ROBBIE III

15,792

7

3

$83,250,000

26,372

16

13

Juiced

Juiced

16,346

1

0

$81,870,000

26,353

17

16

Old Man Greene

greenej

16,284

8

2

$77,800,000

26,247

18

123

Broohaas

Broohaas

15,689

8

1

$82,660,000

26,227

19

175

smallwhirled's stick

Smallwhirled

15,575

2

1

$86,520,000

26,222

20

27

From the 'Roy ya'll...

d_rock1417

16,140

9

0

$78,020,000

26,159

21

49

The DC / pain

Dale C

16,011

7

1

$79,750,000

26,136

22

48

pain**

pain

16,011

7

1

$79,750,000

26,136

23

162

Taiwan ANDO

ANDO

15,597

3

0

$85,070,000

26,113

24

11

Duck Mania

paco6660

16,423

10

4

$74,140,000

26,091

25

3

Classics1

Home

16,736

0

1

$76,720,000

26,072

26

185

Spankees Yankees

Strange Rangers

15,552

2

3

$85,130,000

26,060

27

103

BUZZKILL5

BIZMANONE

15,765

4

0

$82,580,000

26,038

28

5

o_4_r_a_w

o_4_r_a_w

16,539

3

0

$76,700,000

26,038

29

12

TwinsRus

homerunsRus

16,359

1

2

$78,500,000

25,987

30

84

i'm hot

mal13

15,817

11

1

$77,950,000

25,963

31

181

The Busch Leaguers

JayS1123

15,567

3

0

$83,960,000

25,948

32

59

KlinesKrushers

LiLPeeper

15,940

6

8

$78,360,000

25,941

33

119

The Dilligads

Dilligad

15,708

7

2

$79,280,000

25,791

34

148

rabidruger

rabidrugger

15,627

11

1

$78,010,000

25,780

35

78

mikulecm

mikulecm

15,842

9

1

$77,210,000

25,778

36

118

The Gangmen

Gangman

15,709

7

3

$78,860,000

25,755

37

32

jaggernauts

jaggernauts

16,102

0

2

$79,040,000

25,735

38

154

DJB42281

DJB42281

15,621

9

3

$78,400,000

25,732

39

8

Dodger Blues 3

clieberman

16,482

6

0

$73,150,000

25,730

40

114

Bingham Blue Devils

Bingham Blue Devils

15,734

10

0

$76,870,000

25,674

41

190

Barbarians at the Foul Lines

portlandcub

15,528

1

0

$82,710,000

25,637

42

93

NJ Nobodys

tlef316

15,793

0

3

$80,330,000

25,598

43

136

Casey at Bat

Mudville2

15,661

1

0

$81,030,000

25,566

44

22

Roy Hobbs

JBAmonte

16,183

3

2

$75,480,000

25,564

45

110

Neshanic Nine #2

BULLET

15,749

4

7

$77,830,000

25,550

46

98

Ramblin721

Ramblin721

15,778

4

2

$78,180,000

25,547

47

129

supersuckers

brengeo

15,676

7

2

$77,520,000

25,545

48

7

spinster

ttomax

16,496

0

0

$74,270,000

25,520

49

143

DieHard's Impact Players

btanabe

15,649

2

0

$80,030,000

25,493

50

131

Ford Mexico

CULIACAN

15,673

3

2

$78,930,000

25,473

51

116

www.dstrom.com

SLIM'S SHADY'S

15,719

10

2

$75,040,000

25,466

52

17

holyrollers

clackumus

16,279

0

1

$74,970,000

25,403

53

76

Basking Ridge Schuberts

James Schubert

15,850

12

2

$72,240,000

25,377

54

67

Bocho

Jose H

15,881

3

4

$75,890,000

25,342

55

140

GoMariners

gtomariners

15,656

4

3

$77,360,000

25,340

56

200

Rendles2

Duker4life

15,514

10

2

$75,130,000

25,272

57

86

yabana sticks

beebop

15,809

18

12

$67,480,000

25,268

58

172

Blackdog'sIrish9

Eisenhower's Eagles

15,580

1

0

$79,020,000

25,241

59

69

Highland Falls Twins

Highland Falls Twins

15,879

2

2

$75,670,000

25,223

60

99

Mount Sinai Thunder

rleandry

15,775

5

3

$74,740,000

25,201

61

107

BayAreaBlueJays

thistle4celtic1

15,756

1

2

$76,720,000

25,167

62

166

Piccolos Picks

Piccolos1

15,595

8

3

$74,350,000

25,154

63

65

fourscore4

jhansa

15,888

2

1

$75,140,000

25,153

64

117

dominican kings

verdugos

15,716

3

2

$75,670,000

25,120

65

87

Off the Richter

Rags to Richs

15,807

2

5

$74,990,000

25,113

66

70

Chief Dogs

chiefdogs2000

15,875

0

4

$75,480,000

25,106

67

115

BROOKLYN'S FINEST

BROOKLYN'S FINEST

15,729

4

1

$74,970,000

25,093

68

97

Hans Gruber's Army

oilerman27

15,779

0

3

$76,150,000

25,076

69

184

williemays

wstreet

15,553

2

2

$76,920,000

25,049

70

57

Second is the first loser

Durell711

15,967

12

0

$68,790,000

25,045

71

88

CCHRF

flash2

15,806

8

0

$71,850,000

25,016

72

156

DIABLO'S DARK LEGION

DIABLO'S DARK LEGION

15,618

3

6

$74,760,000

24,971

73

54

romona 3

romona

15,971

6

1

$70,990,000

24,971

74

141

One team to rule them all

cpccblack

15,652

0

0

$76,660,000

24,966

75

111

Rundogs

Solo Flyer

15,744

1

2

$75,140,000

24,964

76

196

B 2

mal54

15,519

0

0

$77,270,000

24,907

77

170

powerslam1

powermania

15,590

8

1

$72,580,000

24,903

78

60

banjo

deuces59

15,938

9

2

$68,910,000

24,881

79

10

Shotgun Willy

brian66

16,436

1

1

$68,090,000

24,784

80

66

Mr. Ass and the Native 2

ryanbish27

15,887

0

1

$73,090,000

24,782

81

160

Backcrackers

payndr

15,600

1

2

$74,770,000

24,775

82

58

Pucha Po

valdavino

15,940

3

4

$70,360,000

24,729

83

38

Harpo II

Pohlcat

16,069

1

2

$70,360,000

24,708

84

128

DOC`S JOCKS

mileskahan

15,680

0

0

$74,120,000

24,686

85

199

THE YEAR OF THE CUBS

KING OF THE ROAD

15,515

0

1

$75,280,000

24,677

86

52

Brew City Saints

svendude

16,000

1

1

$70,750,000

24,671

87

152

capricornrising

cancermoon

15,624

4

0

$72,270,000

24,645

88

71

Ems

Msalltheway

15,872

4

1

$70,060,000

24,639

89

189

Middle of the Pack

Dublin Dogs

15,535

0

1

$74,780,000

24,636

90

130

Quinan Jays

quinan

15,676

0

0

$73,170,000

24,566

91

34

peter

bfmonkey

16,092

0

0

$69,700,000

24,561

92

72

The Team That Beat You

The Team That Beat You

15,872

0

10

$70,250,000

24,557

93

29

manins

ghost_me23

16,121

2

0

$68,390,000

24,550

94

35

McDoobies

McDoobies

16,083

0

0

$69,690,000

24,550

95

155

ST OMPONSETH

niv11

15,619

0

0

$73,440,000

24,542

96

85

Clifford the Big Red Dog

IceTCoach

15,815

0

1

$71,570,000

24,526

97

171

The L2s

Vaj

15,586

2

2

$71,870,000

24,468

98

64

CoachD's

CoachJ's

15,896

3

1

$68,700,000

24,438

99

177

Tumble

paparules

15,569

6

5

$69,350,000

24,430

100

157

NYC Bears

mbstuff

15,617

4

3

$70,130,000

24,423

101

83

ned's

lizzy04

15,818

2

0

$69,770,000

24,415

102

124

Tea - Ball

u0167952

15,686

0

0

$71,590,000

24,384

103

101

ups3

u0015524

15,771

0

1

$70,330,000

24,331

104

26

No Time 2Win

countryday

16,141

0

3

$66,730,000

24,294

105

193

Fredericksburg Red Sox

djnrook

15,522

2

2

$70,940,000

24,291

106

79

RockRoys

Crash K Ding Dong

15,841

5

4

$66,330,000

24,260

107

182

Smell The Glove

RoyHobbs

15,561

0

0

$71,440,000

24,241

108

21

Huckaholics

Huckaholics

16,187

0

5

$65,520,000

24,223

109

178

The Pie-Eatin' Doctors

surlyhorse

15,568

0

1

$70,790,000

24,184

110

56

Abein

Abein

15,968

6

1

$64,390,000

24,166

111

164

Richard Hurts4

DOHowser

15,596

1

3

$69,500,000

24,145

112

33

blairs brats

mauma24

16,097

3

2

$64,270,000

24,116

113

24

Diamond Rookies

Diamond Rookies

16,148

0

0

$65,150,000

24,064

114

194

G.K. Magic

gnk555

15,521

5

2

$67,510,000

24,053

115

195

MBC FFATS

aleiper

15,520

2

2

$68,390,000

23,979

116

77

Vader and the Mirkwood ELVES

emyo

15,849

0

3

$65,220,000

23,818

117

161

spos

the best baby

15,599

1

1

$66,920,000

23,805

118

100

Uptown Bombers

Gillis

15,772

4

4

$63,430,000

23,779

119

188

THE PROFESSIONAL

gemmymint

15,546

15

1

$60,070,000

23,760

120

139

myrtle creek red sox

church's

15,659

0

3

$66,260,000

23,755

121

122

wannabe winners

will363

15,691

1

5

$65,170,000

23,744

122

176

Galena Gangsters

Dogfood81

15,571

0

0

$67,250,000

23,742

123

39

BEAU RULZ

MARK DAIKER

16,066

0

5

$62,250,000

23,704

124

31

Wolfpack 1

Derek/Jaret

16,103

2

6

$59,920,000

23,593

125

73

Steel City

brianpitt

15,866

0

7

$62,590,000

23,576

126

147

Da Newksta

Da NeWk

15,628

1

0

$64,480,000

23,522

127

192

Airstream Bohemians

nc280

15,525

4

0

$63,610,000

23,494

128

68

AlBron

maxweil

15,880

0

1

$62,540,000

23,494

129

183

GC's Yankees

GCo420x

15,553

1

0

$64,670,000

23,470

130

120

sleepahs

milz2

15,705

0

2

$63,470,000

23,447

131

127

MDF2

screwjobs

15,682

0

6

$62,970,000

23,423

132

186

Championship Season

cybernot

15,549

0

1

$63,620,000

23,294

133

168

Kansas City #29

buckskins

15,592

0

0

$63,330,000

23,287

134

15

Titanic

dougsou

16,311

1

0

$56,650,000

23,254

135

63

cubbies

jimmo

15,911

0

0

$59,960,000

23,196

136

91

Long Island Mustangs

jimmy196187

15,802

0

4

$59,680,000

23,113

137

44

niskadwgs

niskayuna bulldogs

16,030

0

4

$57,760,000

23,108

138

113

Roughriders

O'Rourke

15,738

0

4

$58,990,000

22,965

139

61

Bombers Away

alexdefaria

15,919

0

28

$54,420,000

22,951

140

191

STLTURNTWO

steve spurgetis

15,526

2

10

$56,930,000

22,713

141

197

Sultans O' Swat

JimFerg

15,519

1

7

$57,400,000

22,658

142

132

JT RULES!

JTRULESALL

15,668

2

3

$55,600,000

22,588

143

28

Casa de Dolor

aafhb

16,129

8

4

$87,090,000

27,250

144

5ukula
      ID: 6181313
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:40
Of course there are probably many teams ranked 201+ that project out better than some of these teams, but by using the formula (current points)+(PT*60)+(HT*15)+(RV*1.5*81) you will get an idea of where your team projects out to.

Note: This is for informational purposes only. Please - No Wagering.
6ukula
      ID: 6181313
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:42
Ooops. I just noticed that #144 should actually be ranked # 3. My sort must have missed him.
7smallwhirled
      ID: 58521513
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 16:53
Thanks for the projection ukula!
8bookie
      ID: 394382410
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 17:25
Interesting.. I don't know about the calculation, but throwing my team out there.. I'm currently ranked WWR 2000, but have 85+mm in RV and compute out to 83rd on your list... I'd like to think I can still crack the top 100, but with my very poor start and the number of teams currently outside the top 200 that project better than me, I'm not so confident that I'll make it....

My division race however, the projection puts me up by only about 100 points and I think I should win easier than that, unless my opponenet changes his current strategy.
9Rick007
      ID: 26671213
      Tue, Jul 13, 2004, 19:01
Talk about putting pressure on me...There is no way I'm going to finish 14WWR :)

Thank you ukula

Lets see who lives up to the expectations!
10smallwhirled
      ID: 58521513
      Thu, Jul 15, 2004, 17:17
I just hope RV becomes as important as this chart shows by the end, and maybe I can get into the top 20.
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