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Subject: Sabermetrics and Fantasy
Posted by: TacoJohn
- [3674240] Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 00:57
I'm guessing this has been addressed before at some point, but I see no recent mention of it.
How do you see sabermetric stats as useful in fantasy baseball?
There are the obvious short-comings, most leagues are based on the old stats and so you have to play with what you're given.
However, I think DIPS are a good way of predicting ERA and WHIP even if they'll fall short on Ws, Ks, SVs.
OPS will tell you a little about whether a guy over or under-performed in a particular year, but doesn't take into account any situational info. |
| 1 | blue hen
ID: 372102211
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 13:18
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Can you explain to me exactly how OPS tells you whether a guy underperformed or overperformed?
More importantly, I think you're missing the point of sabermetrics entirely. Sabermetrics involves analyzing all available data and using it to challenge existing wisdom. A good sabermetrician knows that saves are valuable in fantasy, while realizing the pitchers accumulating these saves might not be terribly valuable in real baseball.
Throwing around buzzwords like DIPS and OPS can be counterproductive. Sure, DIPS is useful, but there are many other "fringe" statistics around that are much more useful, particularly if your only goal is to predict future performance.
Read this - you might learn something
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| 2 | ukula
ID: 238511313
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 14:57
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BH - He asked a simple question, no need to be condescending and plug ESPN and your own weak article in the process.
If you're so good at fantasy how come I never see your name on the leaderboard?
Some people can only talk strategy - they can't successfully put it into practice.
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| 3 | ukula
ID: 238511313
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 15:18
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"In rotisserie-style fantasy baseball, a stolen base counts the same as a home run."
Wrong Hen. Let's use my current TSN roto league as an example. YTD there have been 2,942 HRs hit and only 1,367 SBs. How can you say a stolen base counts the same as a home run? Going to the extreme, if triples were a roto category, would one triple equal one home run? Of course not. You have to factor in the scarcity of the stat. I guy who hits 30 triples in a season would be far more valuable than a guy who hits 30 home runs. Don't you think?
Anyway, fantasy baseball is a game. A Game. It was never intended to recreate actual baseball. It's for the enjoyment of the participant.
Anyone who truly understands how to be successful at fantasy games make money in the process (see Dave R, cancermoon, Paganelli, etc....). Those who can't figure out how to beat the game write articles about how stupid fantasy baseball is.
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| 4 | blue hen
ID: 372102211
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 16:54
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You are a blubbering idiot. Period.
If you lead the league in home runs, you get the max number of points. If you lead the league in stolen bases, you get the max number of points.
I do make money in the process.
And I am definitely a better fantasy manager than you. The only reason you never see my name on the leaderboard is because you are too busy ogling my headshot. I have changed my phone number - please stop calling.
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| 5 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 17:00
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blue hen, If you lead the league in home runs, you get the max number of points. If you lead the league in stolen bases, you get the max number of points. That is very true, however, ukula is correct that 1 HR is not equal to 1 SB. In one league I'm in 117 SB is good enough for 1st place and 12 points. So, if 1 HR = 1 SB, then 117 HR should be pretty close to being worth 12 points. However, in the same league, 117 HR would be a distant last place and be worth 1 point. So, 1 HR <> 1 SB. Now if you were talking about 1 HR STANDINGS PLACE is equal to 1 SB STANDINGS PLACE, that's obviously true, but it's not what was said. Not at all.
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| 6 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 23717238
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 17:30
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If you want to argue that a HR is equal to or greater than a SB in fantasy it is probably a better approach to argue that a HR also equals a run scored and at least one RBI...plus it helps BA. Where a SB generally only helps you in one catagory. SB are definitely rarer but HR still may be equal or greater in value because of their direct effect on multiple catagories.
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| 7 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 17:55
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I wasn't arguing value at all. In hen's piece, he said, "In rotisserie-style fantasy baseball, a stolen base counts the same as a home run" and that's just not true.
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| 8 | beastiemiked
ID: 262411016
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 18:07
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In rotisserie-style fantasy baseball, a stolen base counts the same as a home run; if you lead your league in either category, you get the same amount of points.
I think it's clear once you read the whole article that Hen obviously doesn't think 1 hr is the same as 1 sb.
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| 9 | TacoJohn
ID: 3674240
Mon, Sep 13, 2004, 18:25
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BH, don't have a cow man.
First of all, I think OPS *can* tell you if a guy is over or underperforming.
If a guy's career OPS is .900 and he's sitting at .650 in the beginning of June, I for one would expect his performance to pick up.
However, if a guy's career OPS is .900 and he's still hitting .900 but all his cats are down, you can likely attribute it to situations.
I realize that fantasy value comes from fantasy categories, I said that in my post. I know that SVs matter in fantasy. The very premise of my post was that many of the newer stats are very helpful in evaluating real baseball performance, but fell short in fantasy analysis.
The question was what are area where new stat ideas CAN be applied to fantasy. One instance I gave was DIPS to help predict ERA and WHIP.
P.S. - What are some fringe stats that are better predictors for pitcher performance? I'm pretty interested in this because I'm going for a no-starters strategy in my Yahoo H2H league next year (I'll take SVs, ERA, WHIP every week... and because ERA is the tie-break in the playoffs, i'll only need to to win 2 offensive cats during the playoffs).
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| 10 | ukula
ID: 20831621
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 07:24
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Hen - "And I am definitely a better fantasy manager than you." Please.
Do you realize that you're ranked #13 out 16 teams in the RIBC? What other leagues are you in? Let's see some results! Less talk, more results. You're the one that is trying to pass himself off as an expert. Are you playing TSN Ultimate Baseball - what's your ranking?
I have some ideas for your next article - write one that claims the game of Monopoly is a distortion of reality in the business world because where can you find a rental for $2? Also, why are all hotels red? In the real world hotels come in many different colors.
What about one about the game of chess - How come some soldiers only move diagonally while others move a right angles? On the real battlefield soldiers move in all different directions - especially if there getting shot at.
What about an article complaining about Strat-O-Matic? When was the last time you went to a baseball game and each outcome was determined by rolling three giant dice on the outfield grass?
Hen, these are games. Just like fantasy baseball and Rotisserie baseball (please learn the difference).
Just like the old saying - Those who can't do, write articles for ESPN.com.
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| 11 | blue hen
ID: 372102211
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 10:34
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Less talk, more results. Remind me to send you an ESPN fantasy banner. I think I have 20 or 30 extra ones lying around. You're riding me because I am 13th out of 16 in RIBC? You mean to tell me that in the most competitive league in gurupie-dom, in a league where my first two draft picks have given me next to nothing (to say nothing of Mr. Glaus), that now I'm a bad fantasy manager? That's worse logic than TacoJohn claiming OPS is a valuable predictive tool. I challenge you, one-on-one, to any sports fantasy game out there.
Oh wait a minute, no I don't. You're not worth my time. Get off my back.
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| 12 | ukula
ID: 20811147
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 11:15
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I accept your challenge. Since it's one-on-one I guess it would have to be salary cap. What's your game? Mine is baseball but since that is over and football has already started I guess we'll have to do hoops. I'll leave it up to you - I don't want to hear any excuses when I smoke your
Yes I am saying you're a bad fantasy manager. Everyone has injuries. You're telling me that you couldn't find even marginal replacements for those guys? With your supposed vast knowledge of fantasy baseball you couldn't even pull your team up into the 1st division? I really think you don't understand what it takes to win these games. You're more focused on crap like the crap in your article.
Ok - I'll give you a mulligan on the RIBC. What else have you won this year Mr. Expert? C'mon Big Man - back up the big talk.
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| 13 | Mikel
ID: 19845911
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 11:35
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Post 11...How about a dual at fantasy bass fishing?
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| 14 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 13:42
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I was thinking Fantasy Badminton.
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| 15 | TacoJohn
ID: 3674240
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 13:55
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I still want to know more about these superior fringe statistics for predicting pitcher performance.
I gotta start making my list of the best ERA/WHIP closers for next year.
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| 16 | blue hen
ID: 372102211
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 14:22
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I think Mikel found my weakness. I did only finish 3rd out of 8 in Fantasy Bass Fishing in 2003. Still good enough for 78th percentile, however.
I also haven't fared so well in Fantasy WWE. But that's more of a rules discrepancy than lack of talent. Most people will agree that I generally made sound decisions in that league up until the keeper decision. I hope to redeem myself in actual Fantasy WWE.
That's not the point. The RIBC league crushed me, moreso because I couldn't get my hands on a middle infielder than the injuries. I regularly win at least one league in every sport every season, and my highest TSN finish probably puts yours to shame.
Oh, and it says here that I managed to land a decent job. While you're taking out the trash on my sidewalk, I'm taking out the trash at the Worldwide Leader. But it doesn't matter does it? Because it's still not worth my time.
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| 17 | BayAreaBlueJays
ID: 57823142
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 14:39
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All ESPN Fantasy games suck the big one.(and most of their articles too)
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| 18 | ukula
ID: 398251412
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 14:47
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I didn't think you'd have the guts to compete against me. You know in your little heart that you can't beat me. That's ok, I understand.
He complains that Fantasy Baseball isn't based on reality and then he turns around and plays Fantasy Wrestling. Is it just me or there something wrong there?
78th percentile? Wow that's pretty impressive. All you need is a pulse to get 75th percentile in an ESPN game - most people quit being the reason.
"That's not the point. The RIBC league crushed me, moreso because I couldn't get my hands on a middle infielder than the injuries." - One middle infielder cost you 12 spots in the standings? Ummm, I don't think so.
"I regularly win at least one league in every sport every season,..." - A monkey could win one league per season if he played in enough leagues.
"....and my highest TSN finish probably puts yours to shame." - Ummm, sorry hen, I don't think so (you can look it up).
"Oh, and it says here that I managed to land a decent job." - What are you reading, your employee profile?
"While you're taking out the trash on my sidewalk, I'm taking out the trash at the Worldwide Leader." - In other words, your self-image is directly tied to ESPN.
"Because it's still not worth my time." - Translation - I'm afraid, VERY afraid.
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| 19 | blue hen
ID: 372102211
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 15:01
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Wow. You've almost got enough to write a book about me. I've never had an unauthorized biography before...
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| 20 | ukula
ID: 398251412
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 15:05
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Afraid, VERY afraid.
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| 21 | ukula
ID: 398251412
Tue, Sep 14, 2004, 15:11
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I'm sorry, am I picking on you Hen? Don't worry, maybe your mommy will make mean ol' ukula go away and then maybe she'll walk you over to Lake Compounce at lunchtime and let you ride the flying elephants.
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