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0 Subject: TSN Ultimate Baseball Winning Strategies

Posted by: Bond, James Bond
- [41362015] Sun, Feb 27, 2005, 00:10

I've not had the pleasure of participating in any past TSN Ultimate Baseball game so I would appreciate any astute assistance I can.

In your opinion, what is the best way(s) to gain success in this game? (By success, I derive a top 100 finish to be pretty darn good!) Is it by building as big a money wad as possible? Would it be by drafting relatively stud pitchers and then rotating just one slot for all pitcher trades? Or perhaps would it best by drafting a better-than-average group of players (both hitters and pitchers alike) and then letting them ride on your roster until a "sure thing" comes along?

What about the use of trades? Obviously the pitcher trades should be worth gold and therefore used sparingly, but what about hitter trades? Do you just go for the latest hot player?

I ask these questions because before I get involved with this game, I want to know if my time will be worth it. It seems to me that baseball is probably the most time consuming of any fantasy sport yet also the most satisfying if played correctly.

Please help this novice with serious suggestions and thoughts. Many thanks!
1mjd
      ID: 501381415
      Sun, Feb 27, 2005, 19:56
I'm also a rookie. Way too much info to post. I suggest visiting the boards at the TSN site. TONS of info by just reading past posts. Vets there are for the most part willing to share info.
2holt
      ID: 5182220
      Sun, Feb 27, 2005, 20:51
bond - I'll try to keep this brief and basic.
you have to be balanced. go after points AND money. ride the "trains" and know when to jump off to build your roster value.
be efficient with pitcher trades (pick up pitchers right before a start and when you trade them , do so right after a start).
hoarding PT's doesn't do anything special. as long as you're efficient with them they will basically each net you one additional start no matter what time of the season you use them. they are just as valuable (or more so) if you use them throughout the season rather than saving them for a run at the end of the season. if you follow the pitcher ownership charts, you can (and must) use your PT's to make easy money.
it takes some research and luck to ride hot hitters, but if you want to finish at the top, that's what you need.
check out up-coming schedules and match-ups. you should know which pitchers and hitters have a string of great match-ups weeks in advance.
try to keep a ht and pt trade available in case of injury or trtain de-railment. anyone who was stuck with griffey a couple seasons back when he was hurt will tell you how important this is.

anyway - my advice basically is to be balanced and do your research. go after both money and points, and look for matchups and trends.

TSN ultimate is the most time-consuming fantasy sport I've played. very different from rotisserie games.
3MadDOG
      ID: 56012617
      Mon, Feb 28, 2005, 17:48
"TSN ultimate is the most time-consuming fantasy sport I've played. very different from rotisserie games."


Baseball must be a horrifically long grind. You can't compete in basketball or baseball unless your willing to put alot of time into it. In both of them researching the schedule is very important.

Question is are the rewards you get worth the time your putting into it? For some people it's a labor of love I know that.

I am only playing TSN Ultimate Football after this current basketball season. It requires less time. I'm just not willing to give up alot of time playing fantasy sports anymore. For what? To win $50 bucks?
4biliruben
      ID: 500432513
      Mon, Feb 28, 2005, 19:08
Most people who play would (and often do) play fantasy games of all stripes for free, because they actually enjoy them.

If you don't enjoy it, don't play.

I've only played one fantasy game for money, and though I won on paper, I lossed in that I didn't really enjoy it.
5biliruben
      ID: 500432513
      Mon, Feb 28, 2005, 19:09
That's exclusively for money - I often toss in $30 bucks for a sweetener in my friendly leagues.
6Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Mon, Feb 28, 2005, 21:04
Start off building cash, Bond. Don't concern yourself with points so much early on, just build that revenue. Decent (but not great) points will just show up if you chase the money efficiently. As midseason draws closer, use the money you've accumulated to shift your focus to earning points while still rotating in the better cash earners. By late July or August cash isn't much of a concern, as you've hopefully built up enough revenue by this point that you can usually afford to have the team you want.

The other important thing to remember is to conserve your trades. You're given 6 per week. try not to use them all before the following week comes, and build them up over time when you can. A good rule to remember is that you should never use a trade to pick up a player that you want unless you have a player that you must drop.

Some Gurupies used to access some number of rosters to track their trading activity as a sample to help us predict when widely held players would begin to be sold off. That way we usually knew right about when it was tme to sell a player that was about to plummet in price. Usually there wouldn't be more than a handful of attractive options to move into from that player, and from that point picking the best one (with the best schedule and so forth) was usually a reletively easy guess. Those samples also allowed us to exploit TSN's 5-day-delay pitcher repricing by knowing which pitchers were about to go up or down in price based on their being bought or sold 5 days prior. Funny thinking back now what a science this forum got it down to. Also funny thinking how I still never managed to crack the top 1,000.

I haven't played in a few years so don't know whether anyone still runs those samples.
7angryChair
      Donor
      ID: 98192416
      Mon, Feb 28, 2005, 23:32
Pray, pray hard like a BOSOX fan!
8franklin
      ID: 46236110
      Tue, Mar 01, 2005, 12:10
Hmm, where to start?

First off, keeping trades definitely can matter big time. Last year, I managed to stay afloat in the top 1000 with an extra 25 pitcher trades until about August. I started aggressively rotating at that point, and ended up with a finish somewhere between 30 and 1. The eventual winner did the same but he kept himself in like the top 250 until that point with about the same number of pitcher trades, and ended up smoking the field.

Keeping a bunch of hitter trades is pretty useless, unless you are planning on a roster overhaul, and if you are planning on that then you've already lost. You can't gain extra ground with them, except minutely, i.e. on days you have a guy sitting. You can gain a lot of extra ground with excess pitching trades.

Money only matters to a certain extent. If you have 90k by July, but are around 3000 WWR and have hardly any trades in the bank, then you are not going to crack the top 100. You've got to balance between being competitive points-wise and making money. Sometimes the train makes sense, and sometimes it is stupid--i.e., if Joe Randa and Edgar Renteria (notice: criminally underpriced--has anyone noticed how screwed up the pricing is this year?) are both hot, and starting a train, then it is pretty easy to pick one over the other. A lot of people try to jump on both and end up burning trades. Better to stay with a consistent point-getter in many cases, rather than jump on a volatile train. Sometimes it is also a better bet to stay on a hot hitter whose train is dropping off or even losing money, or even hemmorraging money, if the points are still coming in. If you can grow roster value to $75m or so in the first few months, while staying competitive, the rest will take care of itself.

Also, from a pure strategy point of view, I draft top-notch starter/relievers for 3-4 spots, depending on price, and look for bargains in the hitters, especially in OF, DH, and 1B. There are some pitchers who you would be bananas not to get to start off with (i.e. Halladay, for example).

One really important thing to keep in mind--this is more of an endgame thing--is that when the rosters get to be about 80% similar--everyone has the top 3 pitchers, everyone has the top 5 or so hitters--then matchups and your baseball picking skills become really important.
9smallwhirled
      ID: 111182021
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 02:55
Did the guy that won hoard a bunch of PTs? He might have, I forgot if he did, but I don't think that occurs too often. Usually teams that bank a bunch of PTs will not be as competitve in the RV department, and still lose out in the end.

Call me stupid though if this is what happened, I can't remember. As important as PTs can be, there becomes a point where you can't really gain as much points as one would infer. As long as you can keep a decent stash towards the latter months, even 4-10, if you have enough RV and are solid enough in the WWR, there is nothing that a team with a crapload of PTs can do just becuase you can't find that many efficient starts.

I had a year in 2002 where I played 1 team and tried to bank a ton of PTs (over 30)....lost a lot of ground and made a lot back but only finished around 30th, and the other team which was pretty identical when I started that other strategy, played right through and ended 2nd.

Overall, I think the most important aspect of the game is trade management. Going HT-less for example is just a sin.

You've got to find the happy medium with pitcher gainers as well. Do you go after every one of them? I went after too many last year, and absorbed too many -80 type (Vogulsong) outings. You just have to be picky and get lucky. If you're good, and have a lucky first 2/3rds of the season to put yourself in shape, then the skill and rubbing of the crystal ball can work wonders.

But, TSN baseball is the marathon of marathons. If you're in an auto-division and want to try and win it....you need to completely forget and disregard what the other guy does all year. If you stick to strong principles and thoughts when you trade....a gurupie should destroy anyone else. The worst thing you can do it try and play the guy one on one and try to counter. Doesn't work.

Sometimes, when you bank a bunch of PTs as in 10 or so, you would think that rotating through will give you an enormous boost.....and sometimes it really can, but make sure that it works because you can't replace those trades that you blew if you screwed it up. Seriously be careful, and if that means being a tad less efficient than ideal....so be it, you can use the PTs at a later point anyways.

I love being freaking drunk and ranting....
10franklin
      ID: 46236110
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 15:36
Yeah, last year the guy who won had a ton of trades around the beginning of August. He was also in the top 100 at that point, so he had what I can only figure to be an incredible run of luck as far as pitching goes. To be able to conserve that many trades and still be in the top 100 at that point in the season is phenomenal. There were actually a couple of guys who came on late in the season who had a high number of PTs stacked up, and they ended up in the top 10. I think that if you play your cards right, you can find enough starts to use them all.

I went through a period that some people may think was inefficient, but I swapped out 2-3 pitchers a day, depending on matchups, and put 6 300+ pt days over a 10 day span. The matchups and rotations were right, and I jumped from top 1000 to top 100, and from there into the top 30 over the last 1.5 months. I mean, there are a lot of viable strategies, and I found myself in the position to either try that, or tank the season.

RE: pitcher gainers--that's where baseball picking skills kick in. That, and a tolerance for holding through losses; last year, I got to a point where you couldn't have torn Oliver Perez away from me, even though his train was losing me a ton of money, and players in the ranks above me even jumped ship. I gained points and rank off of him.

I also don't stick to a true guru rotation--I ride the hot hand. I might trade out of Hudson into Santana, and then keep the rotation going but use another pitcher instead of Santana, so that I can set up my rotations better.
11smallwhirled
      ID: 111182021
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 17:05
That's what I like to do to, when I do rotations, if you have 2 guys going the same day, you can always switch the slot.

Yeah, I didn't recall that, it takes an incredible amount of luck to do what that guy did last year, but it happens. I'm just excited about the start of the season, although I probably won't even look at who I'm going to draft until the day before. I see no reason in agonizing about different combinations.....
12grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 17:12
Hey guys,

I've been playing this game for 7-8 years now and am going to crack the top 100 this year. I'm determined.

Usually I go on acation for a a month and by that point i'm done so I don't follow it. This year I'm taking a lap top. :)

Check out my Roster and tell me what u think.

13grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 17:16
P Johnson, Randy NYA 4/3 BOS
P Halladay, Roy
P Rodriguez, Francisco
P Mota, Guillermo
P Speier, Justin

C DH Closser, J.D.
3B1B Quinlan, Robb
2B DH Burke, Chris
1B3B DH Hillenbrand, Shea
SS DH Renteria, Edgar

OF DH Wells, Vernon
OF DH Hidalgo, Richard
OF DH Wilson, Preston
OF DH Lane, Jason

So what do u think?

Usually I go heavy on closers early so if a train emerges i can get of and on to that anytime with out waiting for starts, i gain the most money.

Randy (3rd) > Santana (4th) > Prior (5th)
is my rotation
14franklin
      ID: 46236110
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 17:52
What do I think? Basically that there is no point in having Randy Johnson at such an early point. There are quite a few pitchers, both starters and closers, who have amazing value. I'm picking them and staying with them, barring injury or complete collapse. I'll use one or two slots to make some money pitching, and focus on hitting bargains. You've got some of the "right" hitters--I can't fathom Renteria's price--but there is going to be heavy movement on a lot of those guys.

I'd start out with solid starters that I can swap out for trains, rather than closers; I don't have any statistical data to back me up, really, but if you start with dontrelle willis vs guillermo mota, you know that you have a guaranteed point movement with willis (hopefully positive!) vs. potentially no movement with mota. I don't know, I'd rather take a chance and lose some points rather than sit on a closer; if I sit on a closer, it is to make money and points, not as a placeholder in case something better comes along. They're a long-term proposition. I'm just babbling.
15beastiemiked
      ID: 4310501610
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 17:55
Yeah, last year the guy who won had a ton of trades around the beginning of August. He was also in the top 100 at that point, so he had what I can only figure to be an incredible run of luck as far as pitching goes. To be able to conserve that many trades and still be in the top 100 at that point in the season is phenomenal. There were actually a couple of guys who came on late in the season who had a high number of PTs stacked up, and they ended up in the top 10. I think that if you play your cards right, you can find enough starts to use them all.


Check out the Ultimate standing threads in the baseball standing forum. You'll see that the #1 guy(ShortTandemRepeat) had about 10-15 more PT's saved up than his competitors with 2 months to go yet he couldn't establish a safe lead. IIRC, my team had about 15 less PT's than STR's team yet still outperformed his the last 2 months. I agree that saving PT's is a good idea but having more than 20 with less than 2 months to go is not point effective.
16grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 18:08
Franklin, so say some of the right hitters ... who are the rest of these guys>

Randa?

Why would u not have RJ ... I'm planing to almost evey start form RJ and Santana.

what does your rotation look like?
17franklin
      ID: 261291820
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 20:19
Hmm. I feel like we can come to one of a few different conclusions. He was clearly incredibly lucky to get that far with that many more trades than anyone else (unless he repeats it this year, in which case he knows something the rest of us haven't figured out). From there, we could possibly say that: he won despite his luck running out, because his extra trades clearly didn't give him an advantage; he won but lost ground as he became lazy due to what seemed like a great advantage; or that there aren't enough quality games when you have that many trades. Given small sample size caveats, I'd say that it is a combination of 1 and 3; having so many extra trades at that point is probably inefficient, but if you can have more a certain number x more trades than your close competition, that is a good thing.

For what it's worth re: trades, if I had one more trade, the amount of money I ultimately won would have been a lot different, after all the extra teams from players with more than one team in the top 30 were subtracted from the prize winnings.

And grEEr, I don't want to give away my rosters. Sorry! I wouldn't have RJ because I believe that there are a lot of great pitching bargains to be found in the 5m-6.5m range that, even if they don't match his totals, make up for it early in the season with roster flexibility. I'll throw some names out anyway, I guess: DeJesus, Greinke, Affeldt, Beckett, Willis, McPherson, Penny, Bonds.

Also, I meant "right" hitters in the sense that your picks are pretty good for value, but they are going to be picks that are "right" for a lot of people, meaning that their values are going to be volatile as some of them will have nowhere to go but down in value if they don't start the year well, and don't have much room to move up if they do.

18grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 20:31
Franklin,

I think probably a total of 20 people will be viewing this thead. You don't have to worry about giving away your roster. I'm usually the same way but I have no fear of giving anyhting away on these baords ... we are all baseball minds here and have probably scaned the price list a few times.

I'm just looking to have a discossion.

ok so your saying u would rather have a rotation like this. Balanced and packed with value.

Prior
Halladay
Beckett
Webb
El Duque

or

Johnson (rotate studs)
Halladay
3 good closers
*saving on trades, getting the sure fire train or value pitcher.
19MadDOG
      ID: 56012617
      Wed, Mar 02, 2005, 20:43
Greer, you're not going to win anything. You're all talk. Can't back it up.

We have been listening to you say you're gonna win everything for the last 3 years. You haven't won jack.

:)
20grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Thu, Mar 03, 2005, 01:06
Maddog,

I didn't say I was going to win ... I siad top 100. Your jsut mad cause your a dogg and they forgot to feed u and you have flees and tics.

:)
21grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Thu, Mar 03, 2005, 04:38
Alright, Rate this team tell me what u think.

posted March 03, 2005 04:36 AM
P Prior, Mark $6,420,000
P Beckett, Josh $4,290,000
P Burnett, A.J. $3,530,000
P Pineiro, Joel $3,450,000
P Hernandez, Orlando $0 $2,420,000

C DH Closser, J.D. $2,410,000
1B DH Pujols, Albert $8,330,000
2B DH Burke, Chris $500,000
1B3B DH Hillenbrand, Shea $1,960,000
SS DH Renteria, Edgar $3,650,000
OF DH Anderson, Garret $4,300,000
OF DH Bradley, Milton $3,250,000
OF DH Grissom, Marquis $2,680,000
OF DH Lane, Jason HOU $1,920,000

Alright here is the revamped team.

I think this rotaion is deadly for the price, hopefully i'll hit on a few trains with out using trades. Albert Pujols is a must have ... check his April stats, look at the STL schedule and also how he does vs CIN and PIT.

Bonds is also unreal, SF plays LA,COL,LA,COL nad he kills those team ... hit;s .500 vs COL. Alas he is too much.

Notice my outfield. Anderson is a steal and Milton Bradley and Grisson both have amazing April stats and are facing so weak pitching the first month ... I think both are good sleepers in the true sence, could be early trains.

what do u think about this line-up.

should I be using closers?
22franklin
      ID: 46236110
      Thu, Mar 03, 2005, 09:50
I love Prior and Beckett at those prices. I think Lane, Bradley, and Renteria are all people to hold onto; possible Burke as well, depends on how the Houston lineup shapes up after spring training. I wouldn't go near Garrett Anderson until he shows he's healthy and ready to resume his production. If that's the case, he could be a great season-long pickup. Pineiro, El Duque, and Burnett--I'd take a long look at Burnett, and then decide to wait and see how his season shapes up. I wouldn't bother with the other two. I also wouldn't hold Pujols; I'd get a lesser 1b, and use that money for pitching, or upgrading a few hitters. Again, this is just my opinion; I don't like locking up that much money in a player early in the season. Also, if I start out with a closer, I intend to keep that closer until I get points equivalent to dollar value. It is easier, and more efficient IMO, to switch out of a starter to a closer train or another starter train.

The starting lineup matters less than your overall strategy, but the starting lineup sets up your strategy. Because the season is so long, it is important to try to stick to the strategy you establish; it is just as important to understand when to cut your losses. I guess you need a true investor's mentality, and the accompanying intestinal fortitude :)
23MadDOG
      ID: 37030253
      Thu, Mar 03, 2005, 16:57
Greer LOL at #20. Pretty funny.


24grEEr
      ID: 401312720
      Thu, Mar 03, 2005, 17:56
Franklin,

My thoughts with Pujols are that he is going to start out red hot and be worth his pirce. Based on his matchups. Then I will be able to see what guy from the first base crop is playing well and move on to him and then alocate that money to pitching when I know what guys I want to target.

However I could down grade first base. Switch Anderson to Vernon Wells (however Anderson may be the TSNP value of the year). Then toss a bit into pitching.

I'm curious why u want to pass up Pinero and El Douqe. El Douge has aswome starts to the season and tails off after the AS break ... he also has great matchups up all first month. At 2.4mill he free up cap too.

Pinero, I'm got no attackment too but I think he will bounc back pretty nicely. I might swap him out for Grinke or Penny.

So out of the 5mill-6.5mill who are u looking at.

Prior, Halladay for sure ...any others striking u?
25franklin
      ID: 261291820
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 00:46
Prior, Halladay, and definitely Pedro in that price range. Go a tiny bit higher and add Zambrano in there as well, who I think will have a great year if the Cubs can keep Dusty Baker from blowing out his arm. I'm liking Pedro for Shea and having Rick Peterson as the pitching coach. I like Peavy at 5.99. I love Foulke at 4.82, and Dotel at 4.78. I'd stick with both of them if I was employing a closer strategy. Clement at 4.34, if Kevin Brown has anything left in the tank look for a major train there, as every fan in NY playing the game picks him up; Urbina could be a steal if he ends up being a closer. Greinke, Penny, Willis, Beckett. Plenty of arms to pick from a good price points with a lot of point and train potential. Again, some of the pricing just doesn't make any sense to me.

RE: El Duque and Pineiro: El Duque is approximately 50 years old and a completely unknown quantity to me. Pineiro is a pretty average pitcher in a good pitcher's park who doesn't post great strikeout numbers, and I think people remember him more for the decent year he had a few years ago rather than anything he's done recently.

Based on recent history, I'm sure Pujols will be fantastic this year. If this were a roto league, I'd bid him up. However, this is a totally different game, and requires a different way of thinking about players; you spend a good amount of time thinking as a commodities trader, and looking for good ROI. So out of probably a dozen different strategies that you could use to win, the one I follow generally precludes me from having someone that costs so much at the start of the season on my roster. It creates too much inflexibility for me. I'd rather see what Kotchman does for the Angels and put that money towards pitching or balancing out the rest of my roster. It is just a matter of different opinions, I don't think you're doing anything wrong. And Anderson could be a great pickup, and he could also just be slightly above-average. We'll know in a few months.
26grEEr
      ID: 028318
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 01:19
Hey,

I agree the pricing is a bt off this year but i sorta like it, it give
me a reason to sort though the list a few extra times. I think
your right on PineroI doubt I'll be keping him. As for El Douqe he
has good matchups early he could be an optio if money is an
issuse.

Funny u should mention Zambrano, I'm giving him a serious
look too. The cubs opening month is vs some very weak teams
Ari,Mil,SD,PIT,CIN,(2STL),PIT,CIN .... actually that is seriously
weak. Right now I think I'll have both Prior and Zambrano.
Pedro is alright but he started poorly last year, not sold on him.
Roy usually starts slow and he has an average to difficult matchs
up early on, his startsare this. (BOS a few times,TB a few times,
TEX and NYY)

I just noticed Aaron Boone was at 3mill I think he is a steal he
sould be pretty darm good not ike his break out year but not too
far off either.

This year I'm on;y going with one team, I find 2 hard to manage
by june and usually one of them I stop following by july. Reason
i mention this is becasue when i have 2 i use one day late or
closers and one jsut standard, best price and value etc.

This year I see so much bargins in the SP. U could have a
Rotation like this... here are a few combos.

Prior
Zambrano
Beckett
Burnett
Grinke

Prior
Zambrano
P.Martinez
Beckett
Grinke

Prior
Lidge
Foulke
Percivle (they face weak teams early he could rack up saves)
Mota

or perhaps the best is somthing like this.

Prior
Zambrano
Lidge
Foulke
Beckett

(the problem I find is this)

The top pitchers with value u probably want to have to of them
and if yor bothering with closers u wanna go 2 or 3. but after
that u only have one spot for money and a guy like beckett u
would wanna hold ... so if say grinke or aldefft geos n a train run
who would i dum for him. Anyways these are my delimas so far.

cheers
27Mojo
      ID: 3203557
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 13:47
The only consolation is that its unlikely either your worst fears or your best laid plans will come true. As someone said above, stick to a basic strategy and fill in the blanks along the way.

There will be plenty of opportunities to catch hitter trains early. You start the season with 3 HTs. The first price update is on Tuesday, April 5. By the third price update on Thursday April 7 you'll get 3 more HTs. Based on your projected roster you have a good number of guys in the price range where trains come from early (2m-4m). All you need now is the fast start. You can't have 9 hitter trains on your roster at once. On the TSN boards you always see people talking how they need to catch every train that comes along. That's an inefficient way to make $$$ because when people jump off the trains you need to trade out and you only have so many HTs. You can't win the game in April but you can certainly lose it. Basic stuff but often overlooked.

Don't have any advice on pitcher trains early in the season because they are too unpredictable. A cheap pitcher has one good start and every one jumps on him for $$$ and the roster flexibility. These pitchers are cheap for a reason, they have no record of consistency. For every O. Perez there is a Voglesong or a Riley that kills you in points and costs you 2 PTs for a small $$$ increase. I tend to favor the RP trains early in the year. They tend to help you both in points and $$$.
28grEEr
      ID: 028318
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 17:36
Yeah good points Mojo,

I'm hoping to hit on a few trains but also hope to have some
guys that produce and unnoticed. I think A.Boone, M.Bradley and
M.Grissism fall into that category. They also start fast, april stats
are an indication.

U say the key element is starting fast. I can think of 3 way to do
this... look at the scheduel and try to predict (althoughu need to
buy studs for that to work), Use pitcher trades and start a guru
rotation, or get lucky.

I'm very temted to use a few closers on my team, but can't seem
to get away from guys like Grinke,Beckett,Burnett. Hot closers is
a sure fire to get of too a nice start.

Iszzy
percy
nathon
(hawkins-broski)

All these guys face super weak teams early... could be huge
numbers put up.

then the under-priced Foulke and Lidge

29franklin
      ID: 46236110
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 19:47
I don't think you need to start fast, just well. It is easy to start fast by riding the hot hand, and then get burned on trains and slumps. I start with a strategy, and try to ignore the tempation of the short-term return.

PS Boone vs. McPherson? No-brainer for me... but I'm really bullish on McPherson, and have no idea what to expect from Boone, although his price tag is appealing.

30grEEr
      ID: 028318
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 20:05
yeah but everone and their dog has McPherson.

Boone could be a little more unique.. he has plenty of room to
grow begin on limited rosters.

Hey, I think this is an importatn question. I've never really
explored it. How many managers do u think are on the TSN
Ultimate message boards. Sometimes I get scared off player
becaues they are all over the message boards etc. If there are
only say 200 people that frequent the boards is it really a factor
in a 3000-5000 person leauge. I doubt it.

31Mojo
      ID: 3203557
      Fri, Mar 04, 2005, 20:17
It's tough to predict who is going to start fast out of the gate. Guys like Lo Duca, Lowell and the ones you mentioned have a track record of being fast starters. Other guys like Bernie Williams and Tori Hunter never seem to get off to a fast start. I think the best you can do is to do your research and hope for the best. Obviously, there's a lot of luck involved because anything can happen over a short period of time. For example, last year Jeter was 13 HR, 48 RBI .277 at the ASB. At the end of April he was 1HR 7 RBI .168. So if you're looking for a guy to have a fast start (say 10 games), that's 50 ABs. That's a small sample size and statistically unreliable for any baseline that you may be using to predict performance.

I think its even harder to project consistentcy among starters at the start of the season. Spring training stats don't mean much. Guys are always talking about their dead arm period. That's why I tend not to pay big $$$ for the stud starters at the start of the season. I think you can get similar performance from guys in the 4M range and have the option to use the extra $$$ on my offence. As a bonus, if these starters perform well they will quickly become trains because everyone can afford them. This won't happen with RJ, Santana etc. even if they pitch well.

I will probably start with 2 closers and hope they get some save opportunities. Looking at the schedule helps, but you need close games too. For example, Foulke only saved 32 games last year and Brewer pitchers combined to save 42! Closers need regular work to be effective and they take a longer time than starters to find a groove. That's tough early in the season because they have to deal with off days, bad weather, inconsistent use. Early in the year I like to watch for a closer to heat up and before I buy him. I may miss some points and some $$$, but I get more predictability in the trade.
32grEEr
      ID: 03591114
      Sat, Mar 05, 2005, 15:35
Right now I'm considering this rotation, mixed with a little bit of strategy.

Zambrano
Prior
Beckett
Burnett
Grinke

Then I'll move to a closer if he gets hot, and i'll have already got a start or 2 off my guys. In addition u can easily predict who will be a train after 2 starts ... so i'll be left with the most effective cheap starters and ahot closers.
36Uptown Bombers
      ID: 49254911
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:58
I'm seriously contemplating 5 relievers, a couple of stud hitters and then a lot of others that I think will go up in price rapidly in the first couple of weeks.

IMHO, you really can't get a serious grasp of who's who until April is almost over so why not wing it for a month and see what happens?
37franklin
      ID: 46236110
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 19:51
The problem I've had with that strategy is losing a ton of points by picking the wrong closers. Well, not really losing points, but not gaining points at the same rate as other people. That strategy can be really problematic if you happen to pick a couple of guys who only notch a few saves each by the end of the month. It gets especially problematic if your stud hitters start off cold; this is one of those strategies that can pay of in spades, but is seriously hard to recover from if your plans don't work out, IMO.
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