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0 Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 07, 2005, 13:41

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Albert Pujols, OF, STL
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.

Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
29KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:06
2.14 Rafael Furcal, SS, Atl
If I had posted my first round rationale after I made the pick, most people would have guessed something along these lines. Pretty much, this was a pick to solidify my MI with the thinking that I would be able to find better "bargains" at other positions. Like 2B, the dropoff at SS was too significant for me to ignore. Furcal is young, like Soriano, and still has upside, IMHO. His OPS took a minor dip last season, but if he can hover around .800, I can't ask for much more from a guy who looks to provide 15 HR, 60 RBI, and 100 RBI at the SS position.
30holt
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:07
2.15 Marcus Giles, 2B, Atl
took a look at my draft chart and quickly pegged Giles as a prime target. In my opinion, considering that this league uses OBP and SLUG, you've got Soriano, then Giles, then a big drop-off at 2B. Giles is solid across the board in this league. I was pretty sure he would go in the early 3rd round, but my initial picks were 1.15, 2.2, then 3.15, so I traded my 1.15 and 3.15 to pete for his 2.15 and 3.2. so I got the player I wanted plus a 13 spot bump in the 3rd round.

I expect giles to contribute an OBP close to .400, a solid SLUG close to .500 or possibly more, and also good SB and R numbers.

So far, I've gotten 2 players I had planned to take (thome and giles), and I've lost 2 - FURCAL and MORA.

31darkside
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:07
2.16 Carlos Zambrano, P, ChC
I wanted to make sure to get a top tier pitcher with one of my picks as I felt by the time it got back around to me there would be good pitchers, but not cream of the crop. Zambrano had a fantastic year last year that I hope he can duplicate and possibly even improve upon. He had a mizerly ERA of 2.75 which I hope he can come close to matching this year. His WHIP and BB's have dropped every year he's played while his SO's have increased and I think it's possible we'll see that trend continue (especially since Maddux is still there). It's a best case scenario, but I'm hoping for 18 wins, 190 SO, sub-3 ERA and a WHIP around 1.20.

3.01 Brad Lidge, RP, Hou
With 31 picks until I had another shot at a closer, I felt I had to grab someone now if I wanted a stud closer. Rivera was still available, but I fear the Yankee lineup will keep him from getting as many chances this year (well, that and I'm counting on the starting pitching to be about a billion times better so they'll keep the opponents score down) as last. So, I went with Lidge who posted absolutely gaudy numbers in his time as a closer. I'm don't remember exactly when they traded Dotel and put him in the role, but to end up with 29 saves in such a short period of time is astounding. That and his strikeout numbers were outstanding as it seems he strikes out about everyone he faces. So, I'm looking at a good source of saves and strikeouts with nice percentages--anything near the 1.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP of last year will leave me giddy.
32holt
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:08
3.02 Adrian Beltre, SS, Sea
Beltre was not a player I planned on getting. My plan was actually to pick up Mora with my 4.2 pick (YR took him at 4.6). I thought Beltre would be taken some time in the second round. His numbers last season were freakish, and he will only be 26 years old this season, so I see no reason to predict a huge drop-off. The move from LA to seattle is a question mark, but I think that even with a 10% drop-off he is still a good pick here. I'm expecting at least 90 R, 100 RBI, 35 HR, and an OPS of at least .900, but better numbers are definitely possible, as he proved last year.

I was debating Beltre or Lidge with this pick, but darkside took Lidge at 3.1 so I had no hesitation in taking Beltre.

33KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:09
3.03 Jake Peavy, SP, SD
I'm high on Peavy and have been since before last year. In fact, through trade, he was on my team last year. He was a 10th round pick last year, but he proceeded to have a coming-out party. At 24, I actually look for him to improve a bit on last year's 15-6, 173 K, 2.27 ERA, and 1.196 WHIP. With RJ gone to the AL, he could turn into one of the elite pitchers in the NL. At least I hope.
34rockafellerskank
      ID: 4310501610
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:25
3.04 Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Chn
Normally, I would select the player I have rated “best on the board” At this point in the draft, I had Sheffield ranked #1. But, this is a positional pick. Elite SS’s are only so common and I think Nomar can be the 2nd best (or 5th best if he doesn’t round back into form). When I take position scarcity into account, he jumps up the list. I did consider Huff for this spot as well, partly based on his nice flexibility, but I thought there was a reasonable chance to get him later in the draft (he went at #4.07, oh well). Both of my other potential draftees play positions I can wait a while longer to address.

He has 1YR deal w/ Chicago and I am counting on Mr. Mia Hamm to have something to prove after last year’s series of unfortunate events – Nomar can still rake it!. I think a return to 2002-2003 season form is reasonable in the best case scenario. 90% of that level still is OK. Obviously, return from an injury is a concern, but a risk I am willing to take.

My projections for Nomar are .350 OBP/.525 SLG / 110R / 100 RBI and 8 SBs

35beastiemiked
      ID: 4310501610
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:30
3.05 Eric Chavez, 3b, Oak

This was a rather easy choice for me. I had considered Chavez last round but figured he or Beltre would make it back so I passed. Chavez had a huge jump in his walk total last year and if he would've been healthy last year he might've been just as valuable as Rolen. He's also only 27 so there is a possibility that he still has some room to improve.
36Chris
      ID: 4708114
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:42
3.06 Michael Young, SS, Texas

I was concerned about SS being the least deep position in the draft, so I wanted to make sure I got a good one. With Tejada, Jeter, Nomar and Furcal having already gone, I thought that the drop-off was significant enough that I should nab my SS now.

Young bats in a fantastic lineup. Last year he split time between the 1, 3 and 4 spots in the order(a little less than 2/3 was in the leadoff spot) and managed 690 AB's. Of course, what he did in those AB's is more important, and he didn't disappoint, scoring 114 runs(second to Rollins) and driving in 99 runs(second to Tejada, albeit a distant second). If anything, I think the Rangers lineup has improved this year, and batting leadoff, he should have even more opportunities to rack up the counting stats. I am not so concerned with Young batting leadoff because the Rangers 7-8-9 hitters will be among the best in the business and create their own share of opportunities.

Young will score more runs, Ortiz will drive in more RBI's, and I should be off to a good start in the offensive counting stat race.
37Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 17:50
3.07 Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi
I considered a closer here, but we haven’t really had much of a run there yet, and there are plenty of good ones available. Maybe next round.

I considered a starting pitcher, but didn’t consider any of the top candidates to be distinctive enough.

So I looked at some of the more difficult positions. I thought it was still premature to grab a catcher, although they will probably start to move before my next pick. We need 3 middle infielders, and two of the last three picks went that direction. I’ve had my eye on Rollins, and he’s not a stretch at this point, especially given the news that he is expected to run much more this year. So this pick lets me fill a tough position while working on a tough category.

Edgar Renteria is also available, and I rank him pretty much the same. I thought Rollins had more SB upside, which is why I went with him. And after those two, the dropoff at SS looks pretty steep. (Note: I ended up with Renteria as well, in round 5.)
38Athletics Guy
      ID: 298482214
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:29
3.08 Gary Sheffield, OF, NYY
After my Oswalt pick, I had hoped to fill my 1B spot with my 3rd pick. Since there was so much talent available there, I wasn't worried about who would be left for me. Then Dunn, Ortiz, Delgado and Thome were snatched up with the next 4 picks ahead of me. After that, I saw a dropoff at that position, so I had to focus on other needs.

I simply decided to take Sheffield who I thought was the best available bat. And judging from some of the reactions by fellow managers, they would have agreed that he was the best hitter out there. Coming off offseason shoulder surgery, Sheffield is far from a sure thing. But Sheffield never seems to be completely healthy, yet is able to put up MVP-type numbers. That's why I'm willing to take the chance on him. Hopefully he can get somewhat close to last year's numbers. I'd be very satisfied with that.

39jumpball
      ID: 298482214
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:29
3.09 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY
I wanted either Michael Young, Rafael Furcal, or Gary Sheffield to slip to me for this pick, but this time I wasn't lucky. They were taken with the 3 picks just before mine.

I regrouped and looked elsewhere. I saw Edmonds and his numbers were interesting, but he didn't quite fit into my overall strategy. What I really wanted was a middle infielder, but they were all reaches at this stage of the draft. When I looked at closers, I knew that was going to be my pick, and it came down to Rivera or Rodriguez. K-Rod's strikeout numbers were awesome, but I decided to go with the safe pick. The almost guarantee of 50 saves from Mariano was a tad better than wondering if K-Rod can keep a closer mentality for an entire year.

[Note: I was very glad I made this pick when the closer run happened in the next round]

40Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 298482214
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:31
3.10 Oliver Perez, SP, PIT
I hadn't planned on picking up another pitcher this round after anchoring my staff with Sheets with my last pick. But the hitters that I was trying to decide between (Blalock, Huff, and Hafner) were pretty evenly matched and I thought at least one would make it back to me.

I then debated between Hudson and Ollie Perez. I ended up selecting Perez because of his strikouts. He could very well lead the major in strikeouts. While Hudson would've been solid I guess I'm hoping for a breakout year a la Santana for Perez.

41youngroman
      ID: 298482214
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 19:31
3.11 Jim Edmonds, OF, STL

he was simply the best hitter available. Not much more to say. The power-trio of Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds will continue to score and I have a third of that output in my hands.
If he can get some more at bats he could even be more valuable than last year and produce some runs and RBIs more. If not I’ll take the 100/110 he got last year.
42Ref
      ID: 5421410
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 21:22
3.12 Victor Martinez, C, CLE

This may have been seen as a reach to some. Hell maybe it is. But last year I went with two quality catchers and tried to trade one all year with no takers. Then one of them started slumping so it really hurt me. So I thought if I could get a SS and C early on, I wouldn't have to worry about getting another one until late if at all.

With that in mind, with not a single catcher off the board, why would I take V-Mart first? Well that's a very good question and as the season progresses may end up being a reach or at least not the best pick at this point.

But my thinking is this. There are several other good catchers out there and some are rated higher on several sites. But I'm thinking VMart is only going to get better and improve on his stats from last year. He definitely has the most upside of the top catchers.

Last year his line was

AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
520 77 147 23 108 60 0 0.2827 0.3587 0.4923

I expect him to at least get that again and like I said he is getting better. I don't think 30 homers and 120 RBIs are out of the question. Certainly a value pick IMM.
43Species
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Tue, Mar 08, 2005, 21:56
3.13 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, LAA

With MI's flying off the board faster than free beer at a fraternity party hosted by the Swedish Bikini Team, I switched gears here and took the #2 closer on my board. Los Angeles is the clear cut favorite in the AL West and should approach 95 wins, which should mean 45 save opportunities for K-Rod.

His ERA, WHIP and strikeouts are top notch and right in line behind Gagne and Lidge. I have little concern that he won't be able to adjust to the role and look for a huge year.
45Toral
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:15
3.14 Juan Pierre, OF, FLA
I have never owned a big basestealer before, tending to stay around the middle of the category by cobbling together a number of 15+ thieves. I thought that might be harder to do in this league, so I decided to try taking a category-dominator type if only for variety.

Pierre is 27, and should not decline in bat ability, at a minimum. He's not old enough to lose his stealing ability suddenly, though the minor leg problems will be a constant worry. He has been durable. 90+ runs, and OBP around .375, and 50 bags are a reasonable expectation. The downside is the SLG; I expect it to improve just a bit, and think what he can give me will outweigh that.

46Peter N.
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:18
3.15 Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN
Another piece to the puzzle in the trade I made with holt had to do with Morneau. I knew I could get Morneau at the latter end of the 3rd so giving up the early 3rd in order to land Cabrera was worth it.

Some, especially those that know me particularly well ;-) may be surprised that I took Morneau over Blalock. Two factors went into my decision. One was that I already had a 3rd Basemen, but more importantly, I just think Morneau has more upside this year. I can easily see him belting 40+ HRs. Extrapolate Morneau’s stats from last year over a full season and you get .270/41/133. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation for him this year now that he has a full-time job and I'm expecting improvement over last year. Morneau has immense upside and I could not pass that up.

47Matt S
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:19
3.16 Octavio Dotel, RP, OAK
I wanted to take another top end closer in the first 6 rounds. I like his K/IP ratios. There's not much else to say about him. I chose him over F.Cordero for no other reason than I have had Octavio on teams in the past, and have been happy with what he has done for me. I expect to finish in the top 3 in the Saves category, barring injury.
48Matt S
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:19
4.01 Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET
Here's where things really got screwed up for me. I was planning on taking a shortstop at this spot. I thought I would be able to get Nomar, then I was hoping for Rollins, then Furcal, then Young. Marcus Giles was gone, so there were no middle infielders worth taking. I did not forsee the assault on SSs happening so soon. Early in my preparations I had Rollins or Furcal as my round 5 pick. I really missed the boat on that. So I took the best player available, IMO, at the shallowest position. I can only expect career averages from Pudge, and if I get that, I will be happy. With his decrease in weight, I would welcome a few more SBs. I don't think his SLG will suffer much, even if he does hit fewer HRs.
49holt
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:20
4.02 Joe Nathan, RP, MIN
My next pick after this one was 18 picks away (5.4). That's far enough away to completely miss out on a closer run. Sure enough, NINE more closers were gone by the time my 5.4 pick came around. I had to take a closer with this pick, because trading for a closer is a horrible option. It's like re-enacting a scene from deliverance or pulp fiction.

Of the closers that were remaining, Nathan was really the only one I felt comfortable taking this early. I've had him on fantasy teams the past two seasons so I'm familiar with him. He's a low injury risk and the Twins offer plenty of save ops. Last year he put up 44 saves, 11.1 K/9, 1.62 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP, so I feel great about having him on my roster. I'm confident that he'll put up similar #'s this season.

50Toral
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:21
4.03 Hank Blalock, 3B, TEX
The corner infield partner of my first baseman Teixeira, Blalock is 24, should be improving, should put up a .350+ OBP and .500+ slugging even without improvement.

The things holding Blalock back from being a bigger star are identifiable and I have a reasonable hope he can deal with them. He improved his previous problem hitting against lefties last year, actually having a higher batting average against them than righties. He has slumped each of the last two years after the break. It's not unusual for a young player to have fatigue/stamina problems. That issue can get better. Hit poorly on the road last year, but I do not think there's any way he's only a Texas hitter. I would rather take a player who has identifiable specific weaknesses of a type that can be handled than a guy just looks like he has become as good as he is going to be.

51Species
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 11:29
4.04 Kerry Wood, SP, CHC

In poker when you sort of lose your cool and do irrational things after a bad loss on a hand, they call it going on "tilt". With the incredible run of SS' in round 3 I was ticked and decided to try to 'punish' those who hadn't picked any starters by gobbling up some prime pitching. K-Rod was one, and Wood was another.

At this moment in the draft I didn't see any big difference makers on offense. There were so many solid OF's remaining, and I sincerely felt that of the cornerman I was going to consider here (i.e. Huff, Mora, Hafner, Aramis, D. Lee, Chipper) that one of them would make it back to me as a SP or RP run HAD to begin soon. Well the closer run happened as I had hoped, but unfortunately of the couple I hoped could make it back (i.e. D. Lee, Chipper) got snapped up from me just a few picks in front of me in Round 5.

Anyway, I seriously considered Tim Hudson here, but his declining K rate and pension for muscular injury had me take Wood's higher upside. While Wood has health risk too, he also has high upside and I wanted solid K's in taking this pick. Here's hoping for 16-17 wins, 230 k's, ERA of 3.50 and a whip of 1.20 (the whip is probably the most 'hopeful' number).
52Ref
      ID: 5421410
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 12:31
4.05 Tim Hudson, SP, ATL

This was my first pitcher taken. To get a studlike player in Hudson in the 4th round to anchor my squad was a huge break. In every single projection site I've seen, he is in the 30s overall. His injury is healed and now he goes from the AL to the pitcher-friendly NL. He should get plenty of run support from his team and he is the ace of a very good staff and has the resources of an outstanding pitching coach.

Again, I feel I got another value pick. Perhaps V-Mart was a little reach, but taking Hudson at that earlier pick wouldn't have been and VMart may have been gone by now anyhow, so either way I got both players I wanted.
53youngroman
      Leader
      ID: 052347519
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:27
4.06 Melvin Mora, 3B, Bal
Best hitter available, already considered him with 3.11, was surprised he slipped back to my pick. He emerged last year despite missing a few weeks due to injuries. If he can produce last years stats when healthy I would be satisfied. I talk about something like 110 runs, 100 RBIs, 12 SB, .950 OPS.
54Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 052347519
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:30
4.07 Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B/OF, TB

At this point I was going for the best hitter available (so what if he has a girl's name - actually I guess it's Aubrey not Audrey, but that may be worse - I'm sure he still caught some flak growing up...). I'd already taken two top starting pitchers, and even if a closer run started, I should still be able to grab a top reliever (yeah, right). But, that was my thinking at the time. I basically narrowed it down to two corner infielders that I expect to have similar numbers. These were the top two guys still remaining from my original pre-rankings. What made me choose Huff over Travis Hafner was his position flexibility and Hafner's injury history. I also was holding out a slim hope that Hafner would make it back around to me. I expect around .950 OPS for Huff and over 100 runs and Rbi; as the TB hitters continue to develop it should give Huff plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
55jumpball
      Sustainer
      ID: 33050298
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:33
4.08 Josh Beckett, SP, FLA

This was a tough pick.
I had originally hoped to land Wood or Hudson here, but they went a couple of picks before me. I wanted an MI, but wasn't willing to reach too far to get one.
I had an offer for Rolen here, so I looked at 3Bs. Aramis was tempting, but not enough to consumate the trade.
Finally I settled in and tried to find a pitcher. I strongly considered Foulke and Wagner here, but with Mariano already in the fold, I went for the starter instead. If Beckett stays healthy, he should get 15-17 wins with 200 Ks and better than average percentages.

[In hindsight, nailing down a second top teir closer with Foulke or Wagner might have been a better pick, since the closer run started with the next pick after mine.]
56Athletics Guy
      ID: 43250912
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 13:53
4.09 Keith Foulke, RP, BOS

The closer run had begun, and there was no way I would pass up on taking an elite closer like Foulke (or any closer for that matter). He was the #4 ranked closer on my list, so I was happy to get him here. Foulke may not be the strikeout machine that Lidge, Gagne and F. Rodriguez are, but he certainly gets the job done. It wouldn't suprise me to see him get over 45 saves this season. After all, his team looks very capable of winning 100 games. Last season, the Red Sox won nearly as many games as the Yankees did, yet Mariano Rivera had 18 more save opportunties than Foulke. With a bit of luck, he could wind up as the AL's saves leader if the Red Sox have fewer blowout wins.
57Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 14:05
4.10 Billy Wagner, RP, Phi
I’d been expecting to take a closer in this round, and as the time got nearer, the two on my radar were Foulke and Wagner. When Foulke was picked ahead of me, the choice was easy. As long as he stays healthy, I should get what I paid for.

Hmmm… Two Phillies in the last 2 picks, and I almost went with Thome over Dunn in round 2. I could have easily taken Abreu in the first round as well. Now that would have been weird!

58Chris
      ID: 4708114
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 16:10
4.11 Armando Benitez, RP, SF
The closer run had quite obviously started with Foulke and Wagner going with the two previous picks, so I nabbed the guy I wanted all along. Benitez isn't the pitcher he used to be, but SF should be a gold mine for save ops this year when you consider the following:

- SF had the 4th most save ops in the majors last year(this counts opportunities before the 9th inning, but the principle is that they play close games)

- SF plays in a pitcher's park which dampens scoring, causing closer games

- SF seems to have improved their team this year with a few (albeit old) offseason acquisitions

- SF plays 18 games each against the Dodgers and Padres, who are both low scoring teams, both offensively and defensively.

Add it all up, and I just felt comfortable that of the closers remaining, Benitez would get the most save opportunities of somebody that could reasonably considered to pitch well.

59beastiemiked
      ID: 4310501610
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 17:06
4.12 Francisco Cordero, RP, TEX

Not much to say. It was during the closer run and he was the best available closer. Hopefully he can match his numbers from last year.
60rockafellerskank
      ID: 180352016
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 17:30
4.13 Danny Kolb RP, ATL

I had left a queue for this pick, but I was still around as the picks before me fell fast. They were mostly closers. I wanted to wait a round and was hping to get Cordero or Foulk. In fact, my original queue had Travis Hafner at the top (which is ironic because I had traded my next pick to holt who draft him!).

Anyway, the run on closers changed my plans. Although Kolb doesn't give the Ks/IP that I'd like from my #1 RP, I think I have a decent start with Prior in that category. Kolb was lights out for a while last year--- moving to ATL can only help as I believe they know how and when to use a closer effectively. I can see Kolb doing 42-45 which isn't bad for a closer at the end of such a huge run.

61KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 17:53
4.14 Roger Clemens, P, HOU
The Closer Run was officially underway and I figured, at most, 2 more might be taken off the board before my Round 5 pick (it was actually 3) and I didn't see much difference amongst the remaining "pickable" closers at that point. So, Roger Clemens was left as the top remaining pitcher on my cheat sheet at 112.6% and I couldn't resist. Yeah, he's going to start the season at 42 years old, but I think a pitcher like Clemens can pull it off. He, arguably, had his best season last year since 1998, so who am I to say that he can't pitch anymore? Rotowire predicts a VERY modest 165 IP, 13 wins, 3.55 ERA, 1.152 WHIP, and 96 K (I want to know who came up with that low K total, since it's just over half what his career K/9 is). Personally, I'm envisioning 17 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, and 203 K in 210 IP. If he gets that, I'll be more than happy.
62Peter N.
      ID: 18256512
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 18:01
4.15 Jason Isringhausen, RP, STL

The closer run blazed a burning trail in the 4th round and I went ahead and added gasoline to the fire. I debated on Hoffman and Izzy and decided to go with the younger Izzy. Both are injury risks. Izzy is on a slightly better team too even though they should both be good for 40 saves. Izzy also has a nice Ks/IP and will help my ERA and WHIP. I consider him a top 10 closer so the pick was not a reach to me.
64darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 18:28
4.16 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, ChC

Ramirez liked his stint with team darkside of the moon so much last year that he signed on again. A lot of 3B were being picked and I suppose I had something of a lemming mentality, but it's hard not to when a position is starting to thin out. He had a career year last year and, unless losing a couple of key teammates puts significantly more focus on him, I don't see why that won't happen again given he's only 26. I expect at least a .550 slg with about 100 runs and rbi's and will be happy with a .360-.370 obp.

5.01 Trevor Hoffman, RP, Sdg

The previous rationales discuss the closer run. If there were more top tier guys available I may have taken a third, but am happy to have two solid closers, especially since I spent at least half of my fantasy time last year scouring the wire for someone to get me saves. An ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.00, 40 saves and 70 strikeouts are reasonable expectations, provided he stays healthy (crossing fingers).
65Peter N.
      ID: 18256512
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 18:44
5.02 Guillermo Mota, RP, FLA

I went closer again with this pick because I do not like being forced to fish for saves later in the draft. I also don't like have closers that will damage your in ERA and WHIP. Mota was the last available closer that I would've considered at this pick.

I was hoping to grab Hoffman, but have no problems with Mota. He is unproven as a closer, but I expect him to step-in and dominate. He should be a good source of saves, has a decent Ks/IP, and should boost my ERA and WHIP. Not much else I can ask for.
66KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 19:01
5.03 Shingo Takatsu, RP, CWS
Well, I couldn't sit by and let ALL the decent closers go by me! Takatsu stormed onto the MLB scene with 6 W, 19 SV, a 2.31 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, and 50 K in 62.3 IP. He'll be the Sox' closer and his $2.5M salary should keep him in the role if he hits any bumps along the way. All in all, this should be a solid pick, especially in the middle of the Closer Run.
67holt
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:55
5.04 Travis Hafner, 1B, Cle
To me Hafner was the best hitter available at this point and I still needed someone to man the CI spot. I considered Renteria briefly but hell, Hafner had a .993 OPS and 109 RBI last year. Sign me up for some of that please.
68beastiemiked
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:55
5.05 Rich Harden, SP, Oakland
High risk/reward pick here. He possesses the high k/ip ratio that signals a big year(think Oliver Perez and Jake Peavy last year). I might've reached a little bit but he was not going to make it back to me. I'm hoping for 12-14 wins 200k's 3.5 ERA 1.25 WHIP.
69Chris
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:56
5.06 David Wright, 3B, NYM
While this pick may have seemed early to some, I was pretty confident that he wouldn't be there when I picked again, and wanted to make sure I didn't lose him. David has a number of things going for him.

Last year, before being called up, Wright hit .342 with 55 walks and 60 k's. After being called up, he OPS'd 857 with 14 walks and 40 k's. I figure that 269 AB's for a 21 year old should give him all the seasoning he needs to have a breakout season. I look for his BB's and K's to move closer to balancing out this season has he continues to demonstrate the power that he showcased last season. Also, he appears to be a legitimate 20 stolen base threat.
70Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 21:57
5.07 Edgar Renteria, SS, Bos
It’s tempting to reach for a second closer, but I think there are more pressing needs to address, in spite of the recent run. I thought Renteria would be long gone by now, but perhaps the recent closer frenzy crowded him out. It seems to me that if I can fill my MI slot now without a stretch, I should jump.

Apparently he’ll hit 2nd (behind Damon) in the Boston lineup, with Manny and Ortiz behind him. My hopes are for 100 R, 90 RBI, 20 steals, and .350/.450

71Athletics Guy
      ID: 53227921
      Wed, Mar 09, 2005, 22:29
5.08 Derrek Lee, 1B, CHC

Looking over the list of 1B's left, I felt I had to make this selection. In my opinion, there was a significant dropoff after Lee. I certainly did not want to risk having a poor performer in such a strong position. It was tough to decide between Hafner or Lee, but Holt made that easier for me by taking the former.

Lee's numbers over the past few years have been consistent, averaging 90+ runs and 90+ rbis over the past 3yrs. That's about what I'm expecting from him, along with a .350 OBP and .500 SLG. The 10 or so steals he'll give me will be quite helpful too.
72jumpball
      Leader
      ID: 052347519
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 00:07
5.09 Chipper Jones, 3b, Atl
I really wanted Renteria to slip, but Guru didn't let that happen. I didn't feel a need to get a 2nd closer this early, even though they were going faster than bad coffee through my metabolism.

The choice came down to getting a 2B or an established hitter who will solidly support 4 categories. I decided to take Chipper and see if one of the 3 2Bs that I wanted would make it back around the turn. [Note: none of them did]

My goals for Chipper are 145 games played with .400/.500/100/100 -- numbers that he has averaged every year that he's played a full season. Stay healthy please!!

73Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 052347519
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 00:24
5.10 B.J. Ryan, RP, Bal

Whether all the solid closers had already been taken before it got back to me will be determined at a later date. After Kolb was taken (the 5th closer in a row, incidentally), I made a list of 5 closers that I would take. Only two of those made it back to me - Ryan and Looper. In fact, Ryan was at bottom of my list. But comparing their numbers, I had to go with Ryan. He's right up at the top for all pitchers in K/Inning at 1.4. Assuming he keeps the closer job the entire season, he won't get as much work as he did last year - but he'll still help my already solid strikeout numbers.

I briefly debated punting saves, but couldn't bring myself to do it - the problem with doing this is that it doesn't leave you much margin for error (or injuries) in the other categories.
74youngroman
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 11:33
5.11 Javy Lopez, C, BAL
It was time to pick a catcher. I don’t think that Lopez or Posada would be still there in the 6th round. Javy was the catcher with the most games in 2004. This stat comes in handy in a league with a limit of 162 GP.

Javy Lopez 150
[undrafted] 147
{undrafted] 143
Victor Martinez 141

If he can repeat that, and playing DH on “off-days” helps, I will likely need only a second catcher for 10 games. This need could be accomplished by waivers. So my C is locked and I don’t need to look at this position again. At least not until the ASB.

75Ref
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 11:58
5.12 Corey Patterson, OF, CHC
In my mind's eye, I saw me taking a closer in this round. But the horrendous run on closers had me rethinking things. I'm not your average fantasy drafter. I don't print out all sorts of materials and rank players and mark them off and so prepared that I can pick in two seconds flat. Sure it gets hard at times and I do consult a couple online cheat sheets to try and avoid missing anyone, but I generally draft out of feel and what my team needs.

Well, after seeing the run on closers and how far some of you reached in my mind, I had to print some things out and cross out names to find out how many players were overlooked. Let me tell you, it was MASSIVE. I've never before seen so many top-notch players slide like this before. This took me a little time in trying to figure out if I could not only snag a top player, but grab one in a position of need.

I narrowed it down to Patterson, Kent and Matsui. I quickly threw out Matsui. Now it was Patterson and Kent. The question was, if I took one, would the other one get back to me? Only two 2B had been taken at that point. Odds are that it wouldn't, yet there hadn't been a run on them yet. I felt once it started, then everyone would jump on board again like they did with closers so if I pass now, it may be hard to get one. But looking at my newly printed off list, after Kent it would be awhile before they went anyhow. So now it was all about the battle between Patterson and Kent.

I had one OF already so I really wanted a 2B. Advantage Kent. But I kept thinking about Patterson. A year and a half removed from ACL surgery (takes at least 12 months to fully recover) and his 5 cat capabilites. There is no way you should be able to get a player of his caliber at this position. He Ks a lot for a leadoff hitter and his obp, while getting better, is still not where it could be, but everything else is there. Sure I'd rather he be batting lower in the order to make use of that big bat with some more RBIs, but this guy is a steal and there is no way he'll make it back to me. All I can hope for is that somehow, someone has other pressing needs more than a 2B in Kent. Unfortunately, he didn't make it back to me.

76Species
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 12:02
5.13 Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY

With the runs on closers and MI's, someone was bound to slip, and in this case it was Matsui. Matsui is a legit 100/100 runs/RBI guy who posts solid OBP and SLG. I can't complain about a 4-category anchor at this point in the draft.

Still on tilt I had even sent a queue with Looper on top instead of Matsui, but a cooler head prevailed.
78Toral
      ID: 22731114
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 12:21
5.14 Jeff Kent, 2B, LA

Yes, I was surprised by the closer run. For no good reason, I thought there was enough other talent to delay any serious run for another round.

They always advise you not to panic at the bad end of the run. I mulled my best response for over an hour, and this was during a time when there were 2 people in the same situation to pick ahead of me.

There were 3 approaches possible with my next 2 picks:

1. Pick 2 closers

This put me back in the save game. There were just enough closers who seem entrenched enough that I wouldn't mind owning them, albeit this would be early to pick them. That's the problem: it gives me mediocre closers compared to those in the run, and it rewards those in the late part of the run with free shots at good talent.

2. Pick 0 closers.

Look for late-emerging closers later in the draft, take a risk on a few disreputables, plan to work the WW like nobody's business. Just too much risk that I end up punting the category, which I don't believe you can win while doing.

3. Pick 1 closer.

The moderate approach. There were a few closers available I thought to be reasonable alternatives here, so I aimed to look for one of the way back up.

Jeff Kenthas been a reliable .350/.525 type producer. Drawbacks: he's 37 and going to Dodger Stadium. Despite these drawbacks, I consider him a safer option than a few guys left who have put up similar OPS's, and as such worth owning here. .340/.480/90/95 or up will satisfy me.

The 2 nest guys and my queue, Matsui and Drew, ended up being picked just before and after him.

[first rationale edited to correct typos]
79holt
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 21:16
5.15 J.D. Drew, OF, LA
JD was on my pre-draft target list. I traded my 6th round pick and there's no way he would have been available with my 7.15 pick, so it was now or never.

I did last minute comparisons with Giles, Wilkerson, Lee, and a couple others. I think Drew has more potential and I like that he can help me in all offensive categories.

I looked at MI's and closers just to make sure I wasn't missing something, but I think anyone from those positions would have been a reach at this point. Carlos Guillen looked interesting but I don't know what the odds are that he will repeat last year's numbers.

I also did a last-minute news search for any articles regarding Drew's health. here's an excerpt from one of them from march 1st:

"It was literally killing me," he said. "I'm talking about driving to the ballpark with my left foot on the pedals, my right foot on the dashboard because my knee hurt so bad."

Drew said the severity of his injury wasn't clear on MRI examinations, but when he finally had surgery, his right patella tendon was 4-to-5 times thicker than it should have been because it was diseased, and resembled crumbling crabmeat.

"Once I got out of surgery, it felt great - right away," he said. "I think last year I kind of proved that when I did get healthy and could run, I could play. The big thing was some of the injuries I faced last year were because I felt so good again. I ran faster than my hamstring was capable.

"I'm shooting for 150 games ...This will be the first time in my life I'll be playing in a place where there's not a lot of humidity. There were days in Atlanta I wouldn't even set foot on the field until game time."

I know you've gotta take articles like this with a grain of salt, but it was the verification I was looking for. Drew has a great chance to put up #'s of 100/100, .550/.400, and 10-20 SB's. That would make him a great bargain for a late 5th rd pick.
80Matt S
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 21:17
5.16 Brad Wilkerson, 1B/OF, WAS
With my hopes of getting 3 MIs in the first 6 rounds dashed, I opted to go with a CI. I like Wilkerson's flexibility, in that he allows me to take an OF or a 1B when I have to later in the draft. I'm not sure what to expect in regards to SBs with him hitting 5th in the lineup. I'd be happy with 10, as long as his power numbers are a little better than last year.
81Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 10, 2005, 21:18
Rounds 6-10
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