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Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 11-15)
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Mar 13, 2005, 23:12
Continuing for the next five rounds.
Rounds 1-5 Rounds 6-10 |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 31 | rockafellerskank
Dude
ID: 27652109
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 12:30
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12.13 Austin Kearns OF CIN
I really should have focused on pitching here, but everything I am reading about Kearns says he's mashing this Spring. Only 2-3 years ago, he was considered a better long term prospect than Dunn. The Cincy OF is a bit corwded, but i think Kearns will land one of the spots. There has also been some talk of Kearns playing some 3B-- that would be a bonus!
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| 32 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 12:37
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12.14 Vinny Castilla, 3B, WAS
Either I didn't discount his stats enough or others have discounted him too much. Personally, I think it's the latter. His .867 OPS from last year is clearly a product of Coors Field, but even giving him a more realistic projection of .777, He was the only 75%+ 3B left on my draft sheet... by a long shot. How realistic is .777 and the rest of my projections (80 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB)? 2004 ATL: 65 R, 76 RBI, 1 SB, .771 OPS
2005 Away: 72 R*, 102 RBI*, 0 SB, .774 OPS
* - number was doubled to project full season So, I think it's very realistic. Castilla won't be surrounded by the same hitting "talent" that he was in COL, but even discounting his stats further, he was a clear choice at 3B for me this far into the draft.
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| 33 | Peter N.
Dude
ID: 3590317
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 14:33
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12.15 Nick Swisher, OF, OAK
Was it a little early for Swisher? Maybe, but I got tired of thinking players would slip in this draft only to see them get snagged before my next pick. Swisher has incredible upside and was very impressive in the minors and held his own at the end of the year when he was called up. There are whispers of him being this year's AL ROY and I think that is very possible as he replaces Jermanie Dye in right field. Swisher should provide some nice power while not sacrificing much, if any, in OBP.
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| 34 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 14:34
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12.16 Matt Lawton, OF, PIT
13.01 David Wells, P, BOS
With only 1 OF and 2 SP selected at this point in the draft, I felt I had no choice but to take one of each with my consecutive picks. Lawton had a great year last year and I see no reason why he can't be as productive, even playing for the offensively challenged Pirates. When he's healthy for a full season (which isn't that often) he puts up great numbers (career .374 obp and .421 slg while swiping about 20), so I'm hopful for obp in the .370s and slg. around .400 with about 20 bags. He's leading off and claims he'll steal 30-35 bases this year, so he could be a nice surprise in that respect.
Wells is coming off a good year w/ SD in which he needed to prove his health. He did so to the tune of a 3.73 era and 1.14 whip while winnig 12 games. He was on my RIBC squad last year and having followed him felt he'd be a good pick at this point. Being on the heavy hitting Sox should give him another couple of wins and although I don't expect more than the 100 SO, I do think he'll keep his whip low and have a reasonable era making him a good 3rd pitcher for my staff. Oh yeah, it also eased my mind knowing his contract is laden with incentives for games started, etc, in the hopes of keeping him in shape and off the DL.
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| 36 | Peter N.@ds's
ID: 207141515
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 14:55
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13.02 Jeremy Reed, OF, SEA
Well, if Swisher ain't the rookie of the year, here's to Reed being it! ;-) But, seriously, Reed is another player with upside who I think will also help me in SBs(somewhere Swisher won't). My team is lacking a player that can swipe 40+ so I'm gonna try and be competitive in that cat by drafting a bunch of guys who can run ok. Reed is one of those guys. I don't think 20+ SBs is out of the question for him and depending on where he hits in the lineup, he should be a good source for runs as well.
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| 37 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 15:00
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13.03 Kevin Millwood, SP, CLE
Another guy that I think may have been discounted too much in this draft. Millwood had a bit of a collapse last year going 9-6, 125 K, 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. Not only was it his highest ERA since his rookie season, but also his highest WHIP. The injury diagnosed last year helps to make sense of it all and if Millwood can remain healthy, I see a return to at least his 2003 form, which will make me happy.
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| 38 | rockafellerskank
Dude
ID: 27652109
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 16:09
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13.04 Shea Hillenbrand 1B/3B TOR
Flexibility helps, though I plan to start Shea at 3B, and the Jays plan to DH him. I'm not sure how he will react to DH, but I assume he will be fresh and not run an injury risk fielding those pesky grounders at the corners.
His OBP has steadily increased over the last 3 years (.463), though a sub .500 SLG isn't great for a CI, what can i expect in round 13? Shea isn't a flashy guy, and is often overlooked. he's never hit 30/100 or scored 100 runs, but he's never been areal bomb either. I wanted to fill a hole in my lineup here and his steady hitting and flexibility seemd like the best choice for my team. It would be nice to see him BB some toa dd to that .300 BA too.
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| 39 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 17:16
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13.05 Brandon Inge, C/3B/OF, Det
Inge has the unique situation that he is listed as catcher but will play few if any games there. He'll be Detroit's everyday 3rd baseman and should improve on his numbers from last year. I was going to take Burrell with this pick but I thought I'd grab one of the 3 catchers that shouldn't be counter productive.
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| 40 | Chris
ID: 4708114
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 17:22
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13.06 Jason Lane, OF, Hou
Jason Lane has always put good numbers up, but has rarely been given the chance to play. Only 232 AB's in 169 games over 3 seasons. Although this doesn't give much of an indication, his 877 OPS in those at bats at least shows that he is capable of hitting major league pitching.
His 38 homer season at AA Round Rock in 2001 shows that he has the power, and his 30 BB/26 K ratio in AAA New Orleans shows that he has the discipline.
My hope is that he puts everything together and has a solid 850 OPS season, but am also aware that there is a possiblity he does better. A risky pick to be sure, but I like the upside he provides.
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| 41 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 17:33
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13.07 Dontrelle Willis, SP, Fla
I should probably get another starter here, and three I was considering two rounds ago are still out there: Willis, Webb, and Pettitte. They each have plusses and minuses, upside and concerns. I decided to go with youth.
Pat Burrell was a really tempting alternative, since I’ve been seriously considering him since the 10th round, and he just hit two homers yesterday, which may be a sign. I doubt if Burrell will slide much further, but there are several teams in the back half of the draft with only one starter, and with only one starter on my staff so far, I think I need to get one here.
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| 42 | Toral
ID: 22731114
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 18:35
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13.08 Geoff Jenkins, OF, Mil via trade
Jenkins disappointed me in too leagues last year, but I'm coming back for more. For once he stayed he stayed healthy for a whole season, but put up the same numbers in 617 ABs as he had in '03 in 487 ABs,. while OBP and SLG each dropped 50 points. I'm counting on him staying reasonable healthy and showing a level of ability halfway between the last two years, something like .350/.500. Can't hit lefties which is fine, as by platooning him I can get the best of his production.
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| 43 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 18:49
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13.09 Aaron Boone, 3B, CLE
As the round numbers get higher, people start taking their favorite sleepers and the queues don't get depleted nearly as fast. Instead of having no one left on my 6 person queue I made with 11 picks in front of me, I had 3. If the top 2 had not gone just before me (Lane and Willis), I would have stewed over this pick longer, trying to figure out who would have the best chance of making it back.
The 3 players left were Burrell, Pettitte, and Boone.
I have 3 starters, 2 OFs, and 3 guys that can play 3B. So why did i choose the 3B?
If Aaron is healthy (and he seems to be from the news I read from ST), I can get nice numbers from him at the CI position. I'm not expecting his 2002/2003 averages of .320/.440/90/90/28, but if he can get close to those, this will have been a good pick. I'm also hoping that he gets 5 starts at 2B in the first month or two so that I can move him into the weak MI slot. Actually, in my opinion, he should already be eligible at 2B since he started 19 games there in 2003, the last year that he played -- so what i'm really hoping is that Yahoo will make him eligible there before the season starts!
Bottom line: I took a chance here, we'll see what happens.
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| 44 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 19:22
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13.10 Carlos Pena, 1B, Det
I notice that my roster is starting to be populated with guys who might not be desirable in traditional 5x5 leagues, but who I see as being solid players with our categories. Pena is another one of those guys (Overbay, Hidalgo are others). His batting average and HR's aren't much to speak of from the 1B position, but he did get 70 walks last year. He'll turn 27 this season, so if he's ever going to have a breakout year this should be it.
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| 45 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 19:32
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13.11 Steve Finley, OF, ANA
He is good enough to get traded from the D-Backs to the Angels to help them win a championship. They got it not right and signed him in the offseason which gives him another year to compete with a lot of good players around him, which of course should help his stats.
If you compare last years stats in ARI and ANA they are nearly the same in every category but RBIs. He produced 48 in 104 games with the D-Backs and 46 in 58 games with the Angels. Count this 46 RBIs up to a full season and you see what I am talking of. A RBI-machine that got down to the 13th round. It can’t be that he falls one more round, so he had to go. I had him on my list from the beginning to pick him up in round 9 or higher. Nice to see him falling that deep.
Now I am searching for a 1st baseman with similar attributes
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| 46 | Ref
ID: 172121519
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 20:19
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13.12 D'Angelo Jimenez, 2B, CIN
With last pick I got Cuddyer. I considered Iguchi, but took Cuddyer since Iguchi was all of a sudden questioned if he'd start and if he would, he'd bat eighth. Well after I took Cuddyer (which I still like), they confirmed Iguchi at 2nd. I'd hoped he's slip to this pick, but he didn't.
So, with all the potential problems at MI, I wanted one or two more. Jimenez was still on the board and will lead off. I'm looking for good obp and some speed. He does have some pop and is in a hitter's park which can help.
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| 47 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 21:37
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13.13 Bill Mueller, 2B/3B, BOS
I drafted Mueller as a 2nd baseman. When Guru posted the Yahoo! position eligibility spreadsheet I questioned Mueller's inclusion at 2b, but sure enough he played 14 games there in 2004. At second his value increases, as his career .374 OBP helps out a lot. I'll take something right in the .850 OPS range with 60 RBI and 80 runs scored.
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| 48 | Athletics Guy
ID: 32131414
Tue, Mar 15, 2005, 21:47
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13.14 Brandon Webb, SP, ARI
I drafted Webb because he's a great source of strikeouts and has the potential to develop into something special. I'm a bit surprised he lasted this long. I'm guessing it's largely due to his increase in walks last season. Webb's K/BB was nearly halved, going from 2.53 to 1.38. I'm hoping that he'll rebound in 2005 (not that 2004 was that horrible for a 24-year old pitcher). It's tough to predict what this guy will do, especially with the 2 seasons he had being so different. But I'm hoping for numbers around 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 180+ K's with 12-14 wins.
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| 49 | holt
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 09:29
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13.15 Matt Morris, SP, StL
I may have made a slight error here. I planned on using this and my 14.2 pick on SP's. The 3 starters I really wanted were Morris, Brown, and Wolf (in that order). Though I had Morris ranked ahead of Brown, I probably should have taken Brown first because it was more likely that Morris would drop than Brown. matt s. did take brown with the 13.16 pick so I missed out on that one.
anyway, Morris is coming off shoulder surgery and all the reports have been good.he's ahead of schedule and willbe available in april. he was pitching with pain last season and still put up 15 wins and a 1.29 whip.
I'm expecting Morris to return to form this season. looking for an era around 3.50 and a whip around 1.25, and a win total anywhere from 15-20 because of StL's offense.
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| 50 | Matt S
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 09:30
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13.16 Kevin Brown, SP, NYY
I was relieved to read that others were considering Brown at this time also. He's a bit of a gamble, but one that could pay off big time. We know what KB is capable of when healthy, and his performance depends on nothing but that.
14.01 Andy Pettitte, SP, HOU
At this point in the draft, all that is left SP-wise are proven pitchers with question marks, or players that haven't proven themselves yet. I decided to take my chances and take two proven guys and hope for the best. Pettitte, I'm quite confident will be able to post solid numbers for me this year. If he performs as well as he's getting paid, I got a top of the rotation guy for next to nothing. I like my chances of getting 220 IP, 17 W, 195K, 3.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.
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| 51 | holt
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 13:03
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14.02 Randy Wolf, SP, Phi
No offense to Wolf but I would have rather had K.Brown with this pick. Go drink some local water Matt.
anyway, I've always liked to take Wolf as a bargain pitcher in drafts. you can usually rely on him to put up decent whip, k, and era.
I'm looking for an era around 4, whip around 1.25, 170K's, and 13-17 wins. he's only 28 years old, and his 1.12 whip in the 2002 season shows that he has the potential to put up some really great numbers.
like morris, his performance was hampered by injury last season, causing him to drop on everyone's cheat sheets. I think he'll be ok and pretty much disregarded his performance last season.
____________________________
Feb. 24 Randy Wolf tossed 40 pitches of live batting practice yesterday, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is recovering from surgery to excise a nerve in his foot and dealt with tendinitis in his elbow last season. "I didn't have the ability all last season to let a fastball go," Wolf admitted. "Today, I was letting the ball go and exactly hitting my spots."
______________________________
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| 52 | Toral
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 13:03
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14.03 Pat Burrell, OF, Phi
I reassessed the names on my list in the hours before making this pick and two names who hadn't been on it, behind some safer picks, moved to the top of the list: Kevin Brown and Pat Burrell. Brown was taken by Matt and I gather would have been taken by holt before me anyway.
I had been thinking of Burrell as a low average, disappointing slugger. No doubt the .209 '03 BA was stuck in my memory. But he's always drawn walks, so is acceptable OBP-wise if he hits .240. And the potential seems to be there in the minds of many for a 35 HR, .500 SLG, 100 RBI season. He's only 28.
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| 53 | Species
ID: 172121519
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 13:55
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14.04 Preston Wilson OF COL
Wilson had been on my radar for a couple of rounds. In the fourteenth round and 212nd pick overall, I think Wilson is a low-risk, high upside pick at this point in the draft. The cleanup hitter in Colorado should be more valuable than this, but Wilson does come with questions about his health, a mediocre OBP (even during his big 141 RBI year) and the possibility of being traded should he prove healthy. In the end, the upside this late in the draft was too tempting to ignore, and I'll just have to find a way to cover my risk with this pick later in the draft.
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| 54 | Ref
ID: 172121519
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 13:56
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14.05 Omar Infante, SS, DET
This could turn out to be a bad pick. I wanted another MI that could play SS. He can play SS and 2B and has speed and some pop. I also love the lineup he's in. However, there are some problems. He hurt his shoulder and they thought it would be fine by now...and it isn't. He's DHing in the Spring and doing miserably--probably because of the shoulder. With Dmitri firmly entrenched in the DH spot, he's going to need to play 2B, where he's slated, in order to have any value. Also, he was slated originally to lead off. With the departure of Sanchez, that could boost his value. Otherwise, he will likely bat 8th or 9th. Batting 2nd was an option before, but who knows now.
I drafted Infante based on his performance last year and all of his upside. If he can be close to 100%, this pick should turn out well, esp. for this league which puts such an emphasis on flexibility and the shallow MI positions.
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| 55 | youngroman
Leader
ID: 052347519
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 14:43
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14.06 Kevin Millar, 1B, Bos
I needed a 1st baseman and I got a 1st baseman. mission accomplished
He is not that spectacular when you look at the raw stats, but he should post a 80+/80+ season with .370/.470 averages. Not that bad for my first 1st baseman. Being eligible at 2 positions is also a small plus.
The other player I thought of with this pick was Clint Barmes to fill my SS-hole, but I thought there is a higher chance that he could get back to me (note: of course he didn’t). I still have 1 or 2 SS on my list. One of those 2 should make it back to the last rounds, the other will probably go earlier, but isn’t a lock for the season. Lets see if I get one or both of them later.
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| 56 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 14:44
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14.07 Joel Pineiro, SP, Sea
I'd actually been considering Pineiro for a couple rounds now. Of course, the reason he has fallen this far into the draft is his questionable health. He was shut down last year because of elbow problems and now has a problem with his shoulder. I kept checking to see if there were any updates to his status - it turns out that the Seattle Times is pretty good with their spring training reports. The last thing I read before picking him was that he had a promising 'long toss' session, and he's on a tentative schedule to rejoin the rotation shortly after the start of the regular season.
a somewhat risky pick, but if he can get me 150 innings with the 3.4 era and 1.3 whip that he showed prior to his injury last year, it will be worth it.
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| 57 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 15:20
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14.08 Tom Gordon, RP, NYY
This is a team pick -- protection for Mariano and help with Ks, ERA, and WHIP.
There was some discussion about this pick being early. If I had waited, PeterN and Guru would each have had 2 picks before I got another and they both picked setup men with high strikeout ratios in rounds 12-15 last year.
I couldn't take the chance of Gordon not making it back to me.
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| 58 | Athletics Guy
ID: 262381614
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 15:41
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14.09 David Eckstein, SS, STL
I was going to take a 3B here, but they were all drafted before I had a chance. I thought for sure Mueller or Hillenbrand would have still been here...just like I thought Bellhorn would earlier in the draft. I must say this has been a very tough draft for me. Anyway, I decided to get myself who I thought was the best MI available. Eckstein should score over 100 runs runs leading off for that Cardinals lineup. The 15 SBs I get from him may also put me at the very top in that category. As long as Eckstein doesn't have another sub-.700 OPS season, I should do okay with this pick.
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| 59 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 16:08
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14.10 Trot Nixon, OF, Bos
Fortunately for Trot, righthanded pitchers outnumber lefties by a wide margin, because Nixon apparently can’t hit lefties – and probably won’t be given much chance to. From a fantasy perspective, that might be the good news, as it’ll prop up his ratios without too much damage to his counting stats. The other concern with Nixon is health, but hopefully his winter workout regimen will bring him into this season in fit form.
I have him as the top available hitter right now, and I do still have an OF slot open, so why not? My 4th Red Sox player, too. I’ll be able to keep close tabs on my team this year. My forecast: 75-80-3-.380-.520.
I’d have been tempted to take Tom Gordon here, but he was nabbed a few picks ago. Don’t know if I’d have done it or not. Probably not.
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| 60 | Chris
ID: 4708114
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 16:59
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14.11 Garrett Atkins, 3b, Col Todd Helton at 24 in AAA Colorado Springs:
1006 OPS, 61 BB, 66K
Garrett Atkins at 24 in AAA Colorado Springs:
1012 OPS, 57 BB, 45K
Both had a late season call-up in which they performed well. Question is, how often do we see a patient slugger get to play in Coors Field? Only two I can think of are Larry Walker(who was always hurt, but otherwise was a monster there) and Todd Helton.
This may seem like a stretch, but I'm counting on Atkins for a 900+ OPS, and I feel that he was my best value pick of the draft.
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| 61 | beastiemiked
ID: 4310501610
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 17:31
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14.12 Latroy Hawkins, RP, CHC
In 24 of his 25 saves last year Hawkins allowed 0 ER. In 8 of 9 blown saves last year he allowed only 1 er. So out of 34 save chances last year, Hawkins allowed 1 run or less in 32 of those games. There shouldn't have been a competition for closer for the Cubs as clearly Hawkins is suited for the role. Even if he doesn't emerge as the closer, he'll still be a great source for ERA, WHIP, K/ip, and a few cheap wins.
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| 62 | rockafellerskank
ID: 180352016
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 17:49
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14.13 Tom Glavine, SP, NYM
With the news that prior my be hurt again (although i'm not 100% clear on his status) methinks it is a good time to invest in some more SP. If the Prior news had not been out, I'd have likley looked at a CI or MI in thsi spot-- but i am being reactionary.
There's really many SPs avaialable that might be great pick ups here.... of course the trouble is tellingt the pretenders from the Cy Young winners.
My short list was Glavine, Benson, Lowe and one other guy still not picker yet. Although Lowe was tempting with his new pitcher's park home and Benson has upside potential, I went with old steady-- Tommy G. Glavine was picthing well last year until a late season collapse, but still finished with a mid 3 ERA and about a 1.3 WHIP-- I'd take those stats again this year in a heartbeat. I hope the NYMs will play better D, and have more ofensive punch to increase Tom's win totals. I'd take 15 which is great for a late 14th round draft choice. I own Glavine in two other leagues(G20 & Political) and got him late there too.... am I missing something? Everyone afraid of his K rate?
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| 63 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 18:22
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14.14 Eric Byrnes, OF, OAK
Yeah, OAK tried to trade him, but PIT didn't bite, so that ties Byrnes to my 15th round pick in a weird way. Beyond that Byrnes managed to follow up a nice 2003 (64 R, 51 RBI, 10 SB, .792 OPS in 121 games) with a good 2004 (91 R, 73 RBI, 17 SB, .814 OPS in 143 games). Rotowire has him at 90 R, 82 RBI, 15 SB, .829 OPS, but I picked him at this spot with slightly less. He has upside if he hits in the top of the lineup (as has been indicated) and I look for him to have a solid follow-up to 2004.
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| 64 | Peter N.@ds's
ID: 207141515
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 19:09
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14.15 Clint Barmes, 2B/SS, COL
I really wanted to get Atkins for my CI with this pick, but Chris took him a few picks before me (not the first time he took a guy I wanted either). So with Atkins gone, I went with plan B which was to address my MI. Clint has 5-cat potential and a 20-20 season could occur. Playing in Colorado and likely batting in front of Todd Helton certainly will help his cause. Barmes also qualifies at 2nd in yahoo, which I didn't realize when I drafted him, so that's a nice added bonus.
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| 65 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 20:31
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14.16 Ryan Klesko, OF, SDG
15.01 Akinori Otsuka, RP, SDG
With Slammy and Lawton as my only OF picks thus far, I wanted to get another decent bat out there before the pickings got too slim. Klesko is not without issues...he's been hurt each of the last two seasons, but I felt the upside with him was enough that the risk could be taken. His career .515 slg and .380 obp are good indications of what he's capable of putting up when healthy, but even the last two years, when hurt his numbers were respectable. IF he doesn't spend any time on the DL I can see him with a slg of .475 and obp of .350 or better with anywhere from 70-80 runs and rbi's depending on the Padres offense.
Otsuka was purely a reactionary pick. That, and to borrow a rationale from jumpball (when discussing Gordon) a team pick. He's one of the top setup men in the league, so he'll help with SO, whip and era which he showed last year can be quite impressive. That, and he'll vulture a few wins and saves as well. But, he's also the first option behind my second closer, Trevor Hoffman, who has an injury history. So, Otsuka was also insurance for him. I hadn't planned on taking him this early, but with Gordon and Hawkins being picked, I felt I had to grab him now if I wanted him.
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| 66 | Peter N.@ds's
ID: 207141515
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 21:00
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15.02 Jake Westbrook, SP, CLE
Not much to say here. I regretted this pick as soon as Broussard went off the board. I also debated Brazoban here and thought one of them had a better chance of making it back to me than Westbrook, but that didn't happen. Hindsight being 20-20, I would've taken Broussard here.
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| 67 | KrazyKoalaBears
Dude
ID: 27652109
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 21:05
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15.03 Mike Gonzalez, RP, PIT
I looked. I looked again. I looked one more time just to make sure my eyes weren't decieving me. Nope, Mike Gonzalez really was still available. After The Closer Run, my team had 1 closer in Shingo Takatsu. Later, I grabbed Joe Borowski (who now looks to have the closers role come Opening Day) and was left hoping for 75+ Saves. Realistic? Yes. Did I want to put all my hope in those 2 guys? No. But, coming into this pick, I was thinking Juan Rincon the whole way. He was at the top of my RP list and stood out like a sore thumb. I just had to pick him before somebody else did. But part of my picking process involves seeing how a player's percentage is affected by changes in his stat (thank you Excel!). So I adjusted Rincon's W total down to 6. Afterall, is it realistic to expect more than 6 wins from a guy who is only going to see 80-ish innings? Is it realistic to expect it 2 years in a row? With a change to 6 wins, Rincon's percentage plummetted. He posted a sweet ERA, WHIP, and K/9, but my projections for this year were far more conservative than Rotowire's, so Rincon fell down my list with what seemed like a minor change. And that's when I saw Gonzalez. Right now, Mesa is the man in PIT. But everybody and their brother knows that Gonzalez is their Closer of the Future. Thus, I think Mesa is on a very short rope, which isn't the best thing for a closer with a career 4.27 ERA and 1.465 WHIP. My hope is that Gonzalez will be in the Closer's role by the ASB, but if he can add 10-20 Saves to what I get from Takatsu and Borowski, I figure I'll be in prime contention for some heavy Saves points. And even while he's not in the Closer's role, Gonzalez's miniscule ERA and WHIP, combined with his high K/9 will make him just as valuable as Rincon. Sorry, jumpball. :)
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| 68 | rockafellerskank
Dude
ID: 27652109
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 21:08
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15.04 Ryan Freel 2B CIN
Might be a bit of a problem here that Freel doesn't yet own a starting job.... but versitility is why i drafted him and I belive versitility is what will get him enough ABs to justify this pick. I look at him as a poor man's Chone Figgins.
MIs are getting scarce and I have no plans to fret over it. But, he is a chance to get a multi-positional guy that can deliver some SBs. I wasn't really excited about many of the other options at this point so I went with my (Ender) gut.
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| 70 | beastiemiked
ID: 232381615
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 22:01
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15.05 Placido Polanco, 2B, Phi
I really needed a 2nd baseman and there wasn't much to choose from. There's a bunch of guys that could be good but probably won't be. Polanco won't play everyday but he'll provide solid percentages when he does. With "not drafted"'s injury Polanco will have a shot at taking his everyday job away from him. Polanco also provides a little flexibility as he's eligible at 3rd base as well.
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| 71 | Chris
ID: 232381615
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 22:02
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15.06 Erik Bedard, SP, BAL
Let's try this again, comparing Bedard to my sleeper pick of last draft.
Peavy: 436 minor league innings, 3.17 BB/9, 11.29 K/9, 6.82 H/9, 2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Bedard: 335 minor league innings, 3.06 BB/9, 10.84 K/9, 6.90 H/9, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Spooky, huh? With the requisite first MLB season behind him, I've felt that Bedard is ready to make his big splash this year by lowering his shaky walk rate(4.65 BB/9) and raising his already solid K rate(7.93 K/9) and continuing to make the adjustment.
Of course, Bedard doesn't have a couple things going for him that Peavy did. He doesn't get to move to Petco, and he's a couple years older than Peavy, but I still feel very strongly that Bedard is going to make huge strides forward, and he's got a great offense to support him.
Atkins and Bedard were the keys to my draft, my two favorite sleepers, and my success as a team will probably reflect their individual successes. Here's hoping they are as good as I think they are going to be :)
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| 73 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 22:06
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15.07 Ben Broussard, 1B, Cle
It was tempting to get a solid setup reliever here, but I still want a first basemen to fill my DH slot. Dunn is currently my only 1B-eligible hitter. As I scan down the list of available hitters, there aren’t many first basemen that interest me.
But Broussard does. I drafted him last year, but he got off to a slow start, and with a host of injury problems to deal with on my roster, I reluctantly decided to release him. I should have dropped Preston Wilson instead, because after the All Star break, Broussard went nuts, with ratios of .395 & .595 in 240 plate appearances. He may not face a lot of lefties, although his numbers against southpaws were actually better than against righties. I’m hopeful that will allow him to be an everyday player.
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| 74 | Athletics Guy
ID: 232381615
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 22:27
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15.08 Yhency Brazoban, RP, LA
It happened again...I missed out on my player by just a few picks! I was set on taking Mike Gonzalez with this pick, who could be the Brad Lidge of 2005 (eventual closer with tons of K's). I still felt my team's pitching was in need of a reliever, and Brazoban looked like a good choice. Through 32.2 IP last year, he had 27 K's, a 2.48 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22. Brazoban is only 24-years old, and should be even better this season. I'm confident he'll be as good as Mota was in the setup role. And with Gagne's knee injury, Brazoban just might get a few save chances here and there.
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| 75 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Wed, Mar 16, 2005, 23:24
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15.09 Juan Rincon RP, MIN
Juan was the logical continuation of what I started in the last round. There weren't too many guys left that have the proven ability to have a low ERA and WHIP and get Ks and an occasional save on top of it. Ok, that's not quite true, Mike Gonzalez was the logical continuation, but KKB put a big crimp in those plans.
Since I wanted 2 of the top 10 guys that fit the description above, I had to make the pick now instead of later. Time will tell if this was better than the alternative of taking a starting pitcher (Benson, Eaton, or Thomson) or an OF (Griffey, Winn, or Cruz).
[ Note: I wound up taking Griffey anyway in the next round ]
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| 76 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Thu, Mar 17, 2005, 00:02
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15.10 Randy Winn, OF, Sea
At this point, I'm trying to fill out my hitting lineup. With the solid pitching I have, I can afford to wait on picking up some pitchers in the later rounds. I also needed a catcher, but only one manager picking before my next pick needs a catcher while four picking after my next pick still don't have a catcher. So, the plan is to get a catcher with my next pick and to get the best available outfielder here. Winn should add another 20 or so stolen bases to my totals while scoring and driving in 80-90 runs.
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| 77 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Thu, Mar 17, 2005, 02:12
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15.11 Scot Shields, RP, ANA
I considered picking Broussard as my CI with this pick, but Guru was against it. So I looked for other 1B available and nobody stood up. There was a whisper from one of them that I will probably hear in one of the next rounds.
now to plan B: get a shortstop
I again said to my draft-sheet: “can a shortstop please stand up”. And I heard nothing. Two of them tried to stand up, but both would be a reach at this point, so I let them sit for another round
Next was plan C: get a setup-man
I saw Juan Rincon on top of my list and of course he was gone a few picks earlier. Next in line were Scot Shields and Damaso Marte. Both are outstanding setup-man with not much of a difference. I picked Shields because I thought Marte could make it back to my next pick (I got him in round 17)
Shields could pitch 100 innings with over a K per inning a below 3 ERA and WHIP around 1.2,
Note: I drafted him on Monday, only to find out on Tuesday that “Scot Shields (P) Ana is nursing shin splints that will keep him from playing for a few days, according to the LA Times.”. I hope this turns out ok for me.
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| 78 | ref
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 17, 2005, 08:46
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15.12 Derek Lowe, SP, Bos
I was very happy for this guy to fall to me. He's having a great Spring. He's also going from a AL team hitting park to an NL team pitcher's park.
I don't feel the Dodgers are as good as people think, but even though Lowe had a down year last year, he came on strong late and showed flashes of his old self. I really think this new environment will help him. I think he may be the Dodgers ace as we get into the season.
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| 79 | Species
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 17, 2005, 08:48
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15.13 Kris Benson, SP, NYM
I wanted Broussard here to cover up for my f-up in round 12 when I blew it on Durazo and he didn't qualify at 1b....but not only did Guru take his fourth corner infielder but he wouldn't have made it past YR either.
So I shifted gears and looked for my 4th starter. Questions abound for most of the SP's left on the board here - be they being on bad teams, having bad years, injury issues, etc. Kris Benson certainly fits that mold, as injuries and mediocrity have checkered his ML career.
I use a few projections as a rough guide for my draft - mainly as a tool to make sure I don't overlook someone. Benson stood out like a sore thumb on Rotowire's projections. While true moving to such an excellent pitchers park, and having a stable of fine defenders (Beltran, Cameron, , Wright and even Reyes and an improving Matsui) should help, I make this pick thinking their projected 3.68 ERA and 1.26 WHIP is still a bit generous. I like his chances at wins in the teens, however, as the Mets lineup (if healthy) is pretty stacked with table setters and RBI men that ought to make things easier.
Further, Benson goes from being the #1 man in PIT to a #3 guy in NYC, well under the shadows of bigger-money FA signings Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Hopefully that deflects some attention/pressure and allows him to just pitch. Being under the watchful eyes of pitching coach Rick Peterson can't hurt either.
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| 80 | Toral
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 17, 2005, 08:51
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15.14 Raul Ibanez, 1B/OF, Sea
As the draft goes on, the decisions get harder, not easier for me. I had 5 names, to fill needs at 3 positions, leading up to this pick. In the hours before the pick, I kept re-evaluating, and everyone of the 5 was at some time at first place in the list, and everyone in the last. Kris Benson was selected right before I came up, eliminating 1 of the 5 contestants.
One more hitter, one more SP, or a set-up man to join the run? I decided eventually that I needed a hitter with this pick. The question was then, Ibanez or Griffey? Reliability or great upside?
Looking at my roster. I decided I needed 1 more reliable hitter who would be playing every day. 350/475, moving to DH so should have no injury problems, hitting in a better Seattle offence. I would like for him to move up to 5th or higher in the batting order. I think that will happen once Bret Boone blows out and shows he is finished (no offense to whoever selected Bret; I haven't checked).
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| 81 | holt
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 20, 2005, 15:49
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15.15 Cliff Floyd, OF, NYM
He was the highest rated hitter left on my charts by far, and I didn't see any pitchers I needed to be in a big hurry to go after. my other 4 OF's are drew, rowand, l.walker, and luis gonzalez, so I can definitely see the need for more depth there, plus there is the utility spot that I still needed to take care of.
I checked up on latest news on him and he's predicting that he'll steal 25 bases this season. I don't buy that for a minute, but I do take it as an indication that he's feeling good and is healthy.
prior to last season, he had 5 straight seasons of slugging over .500 (.518-.578) and OBP ranging from .376-.390. I'm looking for him to put up an OPS above .840 and 10-15 sb's.
I had considered Griffey here, and also Wiggington.
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| 82 | Matt S
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 12:38
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15.16 Shannon Stewart, OF, MIN
I only had 2 OF at this point, and Stewart I had quite high on my list. I debated between him and Kotsay, and went with Stewart. I figure I can get .830 OPS, 90R, 75 RBI and 10 SB out of him. He says he has no more foot problems, so hitting leadoff in Minnesota gives me no reason to think he won't put up numbers like above.
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| 83 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 12:39
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Rounds 16-20
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