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Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 16-20)
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Thu, Mar 17, 2005, 16:31
Continuing for the next five rounds.
Rounds 1-5 Round 6-10 Round 11-15 |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 30 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Mar 18, 2005, 14:25
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17.12 Craig Monroe, OF, DET
This guy has huge upside and with the subtraction of Sanchez, Monroe has huge upside. He was likely very underrated in your cheat sheets and allowed him to slide all the way down to pick #270 overall. WOW! This is my 4th OF so he will play everyday. His batting order is still up in the air but conceivably could be at the top of the order. Infante now may start the season on the DL so that may play a part on him batting first or second. He has pop and speed and playing in a very nice lineup.
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| 31 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 18, 2005, 17:26
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17.13 Morgan Ensberg, 3B, HOU
After my Durazo fiasco (drafting him in Rd 12 not realizing he only qualified at UTIL) I was scrambling to find a third cornerman....because to compound my faux pas recent news stated that Nick Swisher would be Oakland's primary backup at 1b, so the chances of Durazo playing enough 1b to qualify went down.
Looking around, there were few starters at CI that had much potential - but Ensberg was one of them. He had a .907 OPS in 2003, and mysteriously fell off the map to a disasterous .742 in 2004. Ensberg will be counted on a bit more heavily with the Astro departures of Beltran and Hidalgo, and with Berkman out might bat as high as 5th. Minute Maid is a great HR park for righties, so I'm hopeful to get something right in the middle of his 2003 and 2004 OPS' and get something in the .830 range.
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| 33 | Toral
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:54
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17.14 Woody Williams SP SDG
Williams is a smart veteran pitcher who has lasted a lot longer than I ever expected when I watched him playing for Toronto. Unless he's past it, which is always possible at his age, I see him pitching at 3.80 or better, with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower, and winning 12-15 games. He has had a problem with the gopher ball in the past; pitching at PETCO is just what he needs to give him and edge in fighting in that problem, and I expect he's wily enough to make best use of that edge this year.
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| 34 | holt
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:55
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17.15 Jose Valentin SS LOS
Too bad leadership isn't one of our stat categories. If this were a real baseball team Valentin would be the team captain.
I had to draft a SS at some point. Not a lot of choices left. It's been 8 or 9 rounds since a SS was available that I could be really enthused about.
I looked at bartlett, but he's not guaranteed a starting job and isn't eligible at SS yet. I also considered peralta and everett but neither really seemed to offer any up-side.
Valentin is definitely sub-par in the OBP category, but I expect him to put up respectable #'s in all the other categories. reasonable expectations are .470 slug, 70 R, 70 RBI, and 8 SB. those numbers compare favorably to SS's drafted in the 8th and 9th round, and there's always a chance his OBP will go back up a bit.
he will be eligible at 3b soon and that will add to his value. all in all I think he was a pretty good bargain in the last 17th round. a SS who hit 30 hr last year can't be all that bad.
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| 35 | Matt S
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:56
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17.16 Russ Ortiz SP ARI
I was considering taking Ortiz much earlier in the draft, but the time was never right, and I always had a more pressing need. Well, I still had a more pressing need, but the guy I was after was taken 3 picks before me by Species. I took Ortiz after looking at his consistency over the last 6 years in the 'W' category. With a few question marks in my rotation, I am confident I will be able to make up for a poor ERA or WHIP with my RP squad. But wins is the category that killed me last year, so a guaranteed 15 wins is welcomed to my team.
Even though I didn't select a SP until the end of round 9, I think I have a starting 5 pitchers (Colon, Buehrle, Brown, Pettitte, Ortiz) that is comparable with most others in this league.
18.01 Mark Kotsay OF OAK
I nearly selected Kotsay in the 15th, but opted for Shannon Stewart. I was happy to find another leadoff hitter that is solid in all 5 categories this late in the draft. Kotsay won't hurt me in the % categories, and will add good numbers in the other 3. He's the type of hitter I have built my team with, and hope he will be a solid contributor all year long.
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| 36 | holt
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:56
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18.02 J.J. Putz RP SEA
Well obviously I'm banking on Guardado being a walking time-bomb with this pick.
Putz' numbers don't impress me and I'll only keep him as long as it appears there's a chance of him getting some saves.
If Putz does get some saves then he's well worth this pick. If not, then I don't really consider an 18th rd. pick a big loss.
We'll see.
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| 37 | Toral
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:57
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18.03 Justin Duchscherer RP OAK
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| 38 | Species
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:57
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18.04 Mike Lieberthal C PHI
Lieberthal is a relatively steady catcher and worthy of a selection here. In fact, I was pleased that he made it to this pick for me. He's been durable, playing in 130, 131 and 131 games the past three seasons. He's good for 60 or so RBI a year. I think 2004 was a bit of an aberration as he hit a paltry .142 with RISP last year. Further, he didn't adjust quickly to the new Citizen's Bank Park, hitting .242-8-36 vs. .300-9-25 on the road. Hopefully he'll enjoy a bit more home cooking in 2005 and post numbers better than Rotowire's projections.
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| 39 | Ref
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 09:57
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18.05 Brad Penny SP LOS
This is a high risk/high reward pick. No guts, no glory...right?!?! Word is now that he might even end up on the DL to start the year, but if this guy is healthy, this is a HUGE pickup, esp. this late in the draft. With an ERA of around 3 and an equally low WHIP in a pitcher-friendly park and combine that with Ks and Ws, let's hope this guy is healthy.
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| 40 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 10:22
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18.06 Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, BAL
I wanted to pick up Jose Valentin as my starting SS here. Thanks holt, now I have to look for some other options. I don’t thought that Valentin would be that high on anybodies list.
Now I have 3 remaining choices for SS in mind, but I cannot decide between one of them, so I’ll try to let somebody else do a decision for me.
That leaves me with some other thoughts: reliever, starter, or CI
a) reliever – too much talent left that is on the same tier. I know my guys and I think after the draft you know them too
b) starter – I already have 4 of them and do not need one at this point in the draft. I also have no favourite on my list because I ended thinking about them 9 picks ago.
c) finally I found a player that I could draft this round, that would fit into the role of my starting CI
And his name is Rafael Palmeiro. He is a consistent player that gets 150+ games every season. I hope that the Orioles are improving this year because he is my 3rd man out of their lineup. I hope the Mora-Lopez-Palmeiro train is on fire or I’ll be busted.
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| 41 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 13:37
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18.07 Scott Linebrink, P, SD
After neglecting my pitching for a few rounds, I'd already decided that I was going to get a pitcher here. As most of the top starters were gone, it was time to look for a middle reliever. I sorted all the pitchers by K/IP and looked at those with low ERA and WHIP. Linebrink stood out here - last year he actually managed a 2.14 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to go along with a K/inning. I don't necessarily expect a repeat of that performance, but anything within that range is solid. Embarassingly, I have to admit that I don't think I'd heard of him before - but that's why we do the research...
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| 42 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 17:31
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18.08 Jaret Wright, SP, NYY
The rules of this game require, or rather, allow, me to pick up to 25 players.
Wright, as of right now, is supposed to be on the roster of the Yankees as of Opening Day. There's a good chance he'll be injured or shelled by other teams first.
He has played well and steadily for small stretches in the past. Unfortunately when he played well it was when he wasn't playing steadily (a 3.28 ERA with the Braves in 2004), and when he played steadily he didn't play very well (a 8.37 ERA with the Padres in 2003). Oh and don't let me forget to mention the 3.22 WHIP (that's right, that's a WHIP!) for the Padres in 2002. I'm not including his ERA that year, because I can't count that high.
While researching him, I found that he might be starting for the Yankees. If he can pitch the required 5 innings each time out, giving up 4 runs or less, he's got a good chance to win 30 games. That's why I picked him.
-- thanks for the template Toral! :-)
[[ This pick was a result of having a 2 man queue of Brad Penny and Rafael Palmeiro with two picks before mine, and not having either available at my turn. ]]
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| 43 | Athletics Guy
ID: 232381615
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 18:17
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18.09 Jermaine Dye, OF, CWS
As an A's fan, it was often frustrating to watch Dye play (or not play). However, he did put in a solid season in 2004 (before he got hurt again). If he can stay healthy, Dye could be a great contributor to my team. As with Cruz, the move to a hitter's ballpark should help him. Hopefully he tops .800 OPS while putting up 90+ RBIs and 80+ Runs. I had considered Bernie Williams with this pick, but his dropoff last season was just too much for me.
Dye also gives me an excuse to use "Jermainiacs" as my team name again. :)
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| 44 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 18:50
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18.10 Jacque Jones, OF, Min
About a dozen picks ago, I was considering J.J. Putz for this pick, as Guardado insurance. But holt took him 9 picks ago. At least that provided some time to develop plan B.
Quite a few rounds ago, I identified about 5 catchers that I considered to be of similar value. I figured I would hold off on taking one until that list had dwindled. Two of them remain, and I think I can hold out at least one more round.
I’m still woeful in pitching, but today’s news on Bonds suggests he may not be ready on opening day. Last year, I got into real trouble when several key players – notably Preston Wilson and Jason Bay – were out in April, and my bench was primarily occupied by pitchers. I ended up with several dead hitting slots for a month, and my hitting stats started out in such a hole that I never recovered. So this year I want to be sure to have capable spare hitters.
Enter Jacque Jones. He’s the best hitter available on my list, and should provide respectable contribution across the board, except perhaps for OBP, where he gives up at least 200 points to Bonds. Jones may end up being better than some of my other regulars, so his utility isn’t necessarily wedded to others’ injuries.
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| 45 | Chris
ID: 4708114
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 20:20
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18.11 Jason Bartlett, Util(SS), Min
I had wanted Chris Burke as my MI a few rounds ago, and ever since he went, I've been racking(wracking?) my brain for a replacement. In taking Bartlett, I broke one of the rules I had set for myself before the draft...no rookies unless they were either overly prepared for the majors(Jeremy Reed) or a Rockie(Atkins, Closser).
Bartlett was never a great ballplayer until about 2 years ago, when he suddenly became a phenomenal SS prospect. All of his numbers improved, and then he improved on even those numbers in AAA last year, and has been tearing up spring training. I let all those recent gaudy numbers talk me into taking Bartlett.
I sure hope I don't regret it...
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| 46 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 19, 2005, 20:24
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18.12 Brad Hawpe, OF, Col
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| 48 | rockafellerskank
Dude
ID: 27652109
Sun, Mar 20, 2005, 15:19
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18.13 Mike Hampton SP ATL
Still beefing up the SPs. Mike Hampton may have never earned the big contract dollards paid to him, but late in the 18th round, i think he provides a good value for me in search of Ws with decent ratios. I had my eye on Hampton all round and didn't seriously consider any otehr Sps on this choice.
Hampton was 9-1 in the 2nd half last year with around a 3.00 ERA. Even though he was inhured, he came back fine in the playoffs, so i'm going to suggest he's still got something left in the tank. I'll raionalize 3.99 ERA, and 1.399999 WHIP and 150Ks to go with 14 Ws for the ATL Braves. All reports i have read say he will be ready for opening day.
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| 49 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Sun, Mar 20, 2005, 21:25
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18.14 David DeJesus, OF, KAN
His .918 OPS in AAA last year combined with his .757 OPS in KAN last year combined with his being 25 years old gives this pick a ton of upside, IMHO. I was looking elsewhere with this pick, thinking DeJesus might slip back to me, but I've learned to never think that a player will slip back to you in this draft, even with just 4 picks between the current and next pick. So I took DeJesus based on a projection of 80 R, 53 RBI, 11 SB, .763 OPS. Rotowire has him projected at 74 R, 57 RBI, 14 SB, .787 OPS. Obviously, I'd be happier with Rotowire's projections, but I'll take mine with an 18th round pick. If this were a keeper league, I don't think there's any way DeJesus would have fallen this far. As it were, I know others were thinking about him (from the discussion thread), so I'm glad I grabbed him when I did. He'll fit in well in my OF.
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| 50 | Peter N.@TTU Library
ID: 39242023
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 00:06
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18.15 Alex Rios, OF, TOR
I had Rios pegged at the beginning of the draft as one of my sleepers. I debated on waiting another round to take him, but that has not worked out in previous rounds so I figured better safe than sorry with Alex. He's one of Toronto's few bright spots for the future. He hit safely in 81 of 111 games last year and could be poised for a breakout season. If nothing else, he should be a good source of steals which I need. Rios' power may not be there this year, but I expect it to improve from last year. I dont think a 15-30 season is out of question and with a decent OBP, I can't ask for any more than that this late in the draft.
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| 51 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 08:48
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18.16 Bobby Madritsch, SP, SEA
19.01 Junior Spivey, 2B, MIL
I was debating between getting another pitcher or taking an OF. I thought the guys I was looking at might make it back to me, but Brady Clark, Mondesi, Gibbons and Bernie were all subsequently snatched up. Seeing that made me rethink this a bit, but I'm hopeful Madritsch can build on his success of last year and turn his first full year into a good one. As the #3 starter for the M's I'm hoping for 12 wins, a sub-4.00 era and a whip under 1.20. A 100 K's would be nice too, but I'm not holding my breath.
The last news I read on Spivey when I took him was that he was feeling better and his shoulder was all healed. The next day I read he hadn't played in two days because of a sore shoulder and as of today, 3 days later, he's still not playing. That makes this feel like a wasted pick, but I guess we'll see. If he's healthy he'll be a servicable MI, if not, it'll be Groundhog Day since I spent most of last year looking for better MI.
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| 52 | Peter N.
Sustainer
ID: 017103420
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 09:17
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19.02 Dallas McPherson, 3B, ANA for Peter N
My only guess as to why McPherson was still out there this late is because his back problems. Well, I had no problem taking a chance on him with this pick. Latest reports on his back are encouraging. Dallas is another sleeper I had pegged to pick when I did my initial research for this draft. He is another player with nice upside and that's been the theme to my draft as some have noticed. ;-) Very happy to fill my CI slot with McPherson at this point in the draft.
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| 53 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 09:24
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19.03 Kip Wells, SP, PIT
Wells was bothered by his arm last season and this clearly lowered his value. However, even with conservative estimates, I've projected him at 9 W, 133 K, 3.73 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. Rotowire has him at 12 W, 144 K, 3.56 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. Yet another time that I hope Rotowire is right, though it really doesn't matter too much between the two projections. If Wells can remain injury-free revert back to 2002 and 2003 form, he'll be a solid pick for the 19th round of this draft.
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| 54 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 09:25
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19.04 Ryan Madson, RP, PHI
placeholder
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| 55 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 11:14
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19.05 Ramon Hernandez, C, SD
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| 56 | Chris
ID: 4708114
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 12:24
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19.06 Dan Haren, SP, Oak
Wanted a 6th SP that I could spot start and wouldn't kill my totals. Haren has been pretty impressive in the minor leagues at times with a career 1.63 BB/9(spectacular) and an 8.77 K/9(pretty good). His career numbers show something to be desired, but it's rare that a pitcher is very successful through his first 118 innings.
In his last season in AAA, he had a 2.32 BB/9 and a 10.55 K/9(which is phenomenal) and I'm just hoping for a breakout season in Oakland.
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| 57 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 12:28
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19.07 Michael Barrett, C, ChC
The five catchers I had identified (about five rounds ago) as interchangeable were Lieberthal, Closser, Hernandez, Pierzynski, and Barrett. Barrett is the sole survivor. Two other teams still have an opening at catcher, and one picks twice before my next one. If I don’t take Barrett now, I have to assume he won’t survive – although that’s not a sure thing. The question is whether the presumed dropoff to the next catcher candidate is enough to make the move now.
The other option is to take a pitcher. There are a few starters that look OK, but none that are compelling. There are about 10 on my reliever list that are similar, so there is no reason to jump there.
I guess I’ll take Barrett, as I think he’s a safer pick than any of the starters on my list. Put me down for 50-57-2-.330-.450. Of the catchers remaining, several will probably match Barrett’s counting stats, but with lower ratios. And those with comparable ratios (there’s at least one I considered) probably won’t have enough plate appearances to approach those counting stats.
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| 60 | Athletics Guy
ID: 302512114
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 17:26
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19.08 Jeff Francis, SP, COL
Looking at the drafts for the qualifying leagues, it looks as if Francis may go undrafted this year. I probably could have at least waited a few more rounds before taking my sleeper here. But with the way my draft was already going, and with PeterN around, I wasn't going to take any chances.
I think he's going to surprise a lot of people this year. Last year in AA, Francis' K/BB ratio was an impressive 147/22 with a WHIP of .836. In AAA, his K/BB ratio was 46/6 with a WHIP of .895. He has basically dominated at every level so far. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers he'll have in the majors, more specifically at Coors Field. From what I'm seeing so far this Spring, I like his chances for success in '05. I'm projecting Francis for 14-15 Wins, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 170+ K's, which I must admit is a lot to expect out of a rookie who will pitch half his games in the best hitter's park. Needless to say, he's my pick for National League Rookie of the Year. My condolences go out to Garrett Atkins (and his fantasy owners) for falling way short of winning this award. There's always next year. Oh wait...no there isn't.
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| 61 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 17:50
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19.09 Brady Clark, OF, MIL
I was planning to draft [not drafted yet] here, but a glance at the research told me that he might be starting the year in a reserve role.
I looked at the SPs that were available, and while a few caught my eye, I eventually determined that I had a greater need in the OF where I only had 3 players so far . . . and that included Griffey.
Clark is getting a chance to set the table for a decent group of hitters. I like the number of walks that he draws (53 BB and 353 ABs last year). If he keeps his job, he should put up numbers near .360/.400/85/60/25. Hopefully I can make up the slugging dropoff elsewhere.
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| 62 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 298482214
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 19:04
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19.10 Raul Mondesi, OF, ATL
Well, the intention was for Mondesi to be the other half of my Frank Thomas injury platoon. But I see he's already pulled a hamstring in spring training. Apparently, he didn't see the memo about coordinating the timing of his injuries/disappearances with Thomas's injuries. Who knows, he may be rejuvenated in Atlanta and show flashes of the power and speed that he used to have.
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| 63 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 19:06
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19.11 J.T. Snow, 1B, SF
I am still needing one or two SS, but couldn’t resist picking up Snow. I had him last year and he played great against those right-handed pitchers. Perhaps he will see more action against lefties this year. With Pedro Feliz moving into left field because of Barry Bonds' injury, the Giants have not a lot of options at 1st. if he only plays against righties and produces like last year he will be a potent fill in for Millar/Palmeiro. Millar could even be moved to OF if necessary.
1B and CI should be covered, now my next hole is SS. 3 usable guys are still available. Please help me making my decision, because I can’t do it myself. Otherwise I would have drafted one of them already.
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| 64 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 20:43
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19.12 Bernie Williams, OF, NYY
Extremely surprised that Bernie fell this far to me. He comes with extremely high obp and should score some runs in that potent offense. While his power has diminished, he still should be decent in enough areas to be a big help to me. He will play every day either in the OF or DH according to Torre. He becomes my 5th OF, but with a Util slot and off days and all the injuries I had last year, I know I can't pass him up with this pick.
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| 65 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 20:58
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19.13 Jay Gibbons, OF, BAL
This was a total "settle" pick. I wanted Bernie Williams -- oddly I had checked him off my master list, but in checking alphabetically I realized midway through this round that he hadn't been taken. I had four outfielders already, but with Preston Wilson as one of them and Reggie Sanders as another (and this was BEFORE the appendectomy, I believe), I knew I wanted a credible backup. Looking at the draft grid I feared Ref would take him, so I tried to get youngroman to trade, hoping that just a 2 spot downgrade would not deter him from someone in particular. Sadly, not only did YR decline, but about 10 seconds after he picked Ref took Williams. I was bummed.
I settled for Gibbons who at least has a regular job. A slight bonus was given for having 1b eligibility, and with such a short bench it can't hurt. Hopefully he will not be counted on much more than spot duty and on the tail end of Baltimore's middle of the order of Tejada, Sosa, Lopez and Palmeiro ain't all bad.
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| 66 | Toral
ID: 22731114
Mon, Mar 21, 2005, 22:34
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19.14 Keith Ginter, 2B, Oak
Ginter is currently in a battle for a job at second for Oakland, and I am hoping he will prevail because he has a better bat than the competition. He showed some pop last year with 19 homers. His OBP declined last year, but with the emphasis on getting on base in Oakland I hope he can return to his previous levels of .350 and up. He will throw a few stolen bases into the pot, with 8 bags last year and only 1 CS.
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| 67 | holt
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 09:29
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19.15 Kiko Calero, RP, OAK
I'm expecting good ERA and whip #'s and over 1K per inning. as a redbirds fan I've been following calero's career from the beginning. he has the stuff to be a good closer (or even a good starter if given the chance). if the a's give up on dotel I like Calero's chances of taking over the closer job.
I had considered taking Biggio. I probably should have, but at that time it was still just a rumor that he would be starting the season at 2B, and by the time the news came out he was already gone.
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| 68 | Matt S
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 09:30
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19.16 Juan Cruz, RP, OAK
I was again hoping to fill my 3B void in this round, but once again the player I wanted (McPerson) was taken before it got to me. I had no idea how much his back injury had deterred people, but it obviously wasn't enough. The other 3 baggers or outfielders I was targeting, I felt would last another 30 picks (and they did) so I took two more MRs to solidify myself at the top of some pitching categories.
Cruz finally fulfilled some of his hype with a solid season last year. He maintained good K/BB ratios, and kept a low ERA. He will enter this season as Dotel's setup man. I also took him because I felt he has the best chance of getting save ops in the event that my #2 closer goes down with an injury.
20.01 Luis Ayala, RP, WAS
Even though I doubt he will get more than 5 save ops, I still feel Ayala has great upside in the other categories. He will help in ERA and WHIP, and contribute about 6K/9IP. But what I like most about him, is that Robinson isn't weary of putting him in when the game is on the line. In the last 2 years, he has 31 decisions (16 W, 15L). That is remarkable for a MR, and I welcome the added Ws to my team. Then again, maybe Robinson wasn't fibbing when he said he was going with a closer by committee, and I'll get a few bonus saves.
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| 69 | holt
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 12:48
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20.02 Tim Worrell, RP, PHI
I guess this pick is just a bet that Wagner hits the DL again. if that happens I expect Worrell would be the choice to step into the closer role again.
worrell's stats should help me out a little but I don't expect anything spectacular. as with JJ Putz I'm mainly hunting for saves here.
some other players that I had considered that have since been taken were biggio, alfonzo, cantu, jerome williams(!!!!!), quinlan, teanhen, and washburn.
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| 70 | Toral
Leader
ID: 07724916
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 13:08
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20.03 Ricky Bottalico, RP, MIL
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| 71 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 13:13
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20.04 Luis Vizcaino, RP, CHW
It was time for me to take one of my relievers. I had narrowed it down to Vizcaino and Colome -- two flamethrowing ex-Athletics that remind us of Nuke LaLoosh (sp?) from Bull Durham but have seemingly come around to where they have harnassed their talents.
I chose Vizcaino because of a perceived steadier track record -- he had a nice 2002 and 2004 vs. Colome only putting up one year's worth of good numbers. In hindsight, I probably should've taken Colome in case Baez gets traded or falters, as Colome would likely be next in line for saves.....but Vizcaino will fit in nicely with a sub 1.20 WHIP, an ERA below 3.75 and solid K/9.
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| 72 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 13:31
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20.05 Jason Philips, C, NYM
If I reached for an up and comer catcher in the 3rd round, why in the world would I take a second catcher now? And Phillips at that? Good questions.
At the time, I wanted to solidify all of my positions. Injuries absolutely killed me last year and there weren't a whole lot of options in the FA pool and trading wasn't much of an option. Last year I drafted two catchers early as one slid so far I intended to trade one to someone who needed one. No takers. I am not drafting anyone this year with the intent to trade. Actually, am more or less looking for backups who can step up in short-term or long-term relief and players who can play in multiple positions as the benches are short.
I had heard the rumors that LA was looking for a backup catcher all year, but LA, as with many teams, want a defensive catcher as their back-up and that is Bako. So when LA and the Mets started talking again about Phillips and this time Ishii was involved, I jumped on the rumor. By the time my pick came up, it was becoming more and more likely that this deal would get done.
At this point in the draft, I figure there are still plenty of guys to help me, but I'm all about high-risk/high-reward a lot of times. This is one of the picks that could end up on the WW pretty quickly, but am willing to take that chance based on this line of thinking...
Phillips isn't being brought to LA to be the back-up. He had a bad year hitting following a tremendous year in '03. While he might not return to '03 form, nothing in my mind leads me to believe he will be as bad as last year.
He should play every day and that should also help him get his regular ABs.
He is eligible at C/1B so if he hits like he did in '03 perhaps, he can also play at 1st and CI as well as Util.
Catchers don't play everyday. If I can find times where V-Mart is going to get a day-off or is hurting or slumping, I may be able to play Phillips.
He's had a very good Spring.
He's going from one pitcher's park to another one so there is no downgrade for going to LA. Actually, he will play in AZ and Col more.
Bottom line, this was a reach. I doubt seriously that anyone would take him any time soon, but with at least one manager without a catcher and most with just one, I wanted to grab him while his value was low in case the trade was made quickly and his value shot way up. I know that when you find those early-season surprises on the FA pool that players have to be discarded and this may be my first. But for now, I'm going to see what I've got.
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| 73 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 14:40
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20.06 Adam Everett, SS, HOU
I still needed a SS. There was not really one that is above the rest at this point, but it was time to pick one, because it could be that some of them will be gone in the next 20 picks until it is my turn again.
I simply rolled a dice and Everett it was. I am expecting nothing special from him, but he should be good enough to fill my SS hole. I am expecting to pick up a hot SS from the waiver wire that he has to platoon with. There is also a player in AAA that should be called up sometime during the season, that I am considering helping me in this slot.
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| 74 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 15:10
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20.07 Ryan Wagner, RP, Cin
I'd actually pegged Luis Ayala with this pick, but he went a few picks earlier. Made me wonder if I jumped the gun a little bit with Mondesi with my previous pick. Wagner had a rough first full season last year in the majors; he may have been rushed a bit as he'd only been drafted the year before. He's has a solid spring, and should land a role as a setup man. As he's probably the Reds' closer of the future, I'm hoping he gets some save opportunities this year.
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| 75 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 15:49
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20.08 Ronnie Belliard, 2B, CLE
After an hour of research, I concluded that there are still a few players available to draft.
I wanted to get a hitter here, and was torn between getting a mini-banger (there are no more true bangers left) which would mean someone to fill the Util slot, or to get a MI to help with the weakest part of my draft.
I chose the MI route and since I recently drafted Wilson at SS, I focused on 2B eligibility. There were a few players that were equally average here. I chose Belliard over Alfonzo and [undrafted] because . . . because . . . well, I put their names in a hat and drew one out! :-)
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| 76 | Athletics Guy
ID: 41292215
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 16:10
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20.09 Jesus Colome, RP, TAM
I wasn't sure where I would go with this pick, since most of my starting slots were already filled. I started to look at some setup men who might have a good chance at closing games this year. Eventually I came across Colome and noticed his numbers have been steadily improving for the past 3 seasons.
He has really cut down on his walks, and was nearly unhittable last year as shown by his Opp BA of .193. I don't think he'll get much better than 2004 though. While there are other setup men available who will likely put up better WHIP/ERA numbers, I'm willing to take a chance and go for some possible saves. Colome should give me a nice boost in the strkeouts category. Hopefully, he won't hurt me in any of the other pitching categories while I wait for Baez to implode.
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| 77 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 16:24
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20.10 Scott Kazmir, SP, TB
My top starter is Bonderman, flanked by Dontrelle Willis and Bronson Arrroyo. I have only two relievers – Billy Wagner and steady Eddie Guardado, who is currently nursing a hamstring injury. I failed to pick up the likely backups to either of those closers, and I waited too late to get a couple of quality setup men. At this point, the only way to salvage some pitching points is to get some guys with significant upside. Taking “safe” pitchers at this point – if there is such a thing – won’t do.
It’s probably a year early for Kazmir, and I certainly wish he was on a team with better run support. But he’s one of those candidates that could blossom, and his early spring outings have been encouraging (2 ER in 12.2 IP). This pick is based on reputation, not projections. Make the Mets sorry, Scott!
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| 78 | Chris
ID: 4708114
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 17:00
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20.11 Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cle
I've been hearing word that Betancourt won't be the primary set-up option in Cleveland, but I wanted somebody to help me with my rate stats seeing that I only have 1 other reliever to keep those down. Betancourt had a 2.43 BB/9 and a 10.26 K/9 in the majors last year in 66.2 IP. He gave up an unusual amount of hits, but his career numbers show that he should probably bring that down.
I'm hoping his ever-expanding role will lead to some more innings, and I expect an ERA around 3 and a WHIP around 1.15, possibly better than those numbers.
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| 79 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 18:36
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20.12 Cristian Guzman, SS, WAS
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| 80 | rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 18:36
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20.13 Luis Gonzalez, SS, COL
Flexibiliy and COL played a role with this pick. It's hard to justify his value based purely on best case #s, but the ability to use him to fill multiple needs allows me to add an additional middle RP later on... which is worth something. Projected stats are going to excite anyone, but he had a decent HR to AB ratio last year (12 to 322), so it's not too far fetched to find 20 jacks out of him shoudl be get to start via injury or where ever. I think decent R/RBI when playing and won't hurt the ratios either.
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| 81 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 18:37
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20.14 Craig Biggio, OF, HOU
I think a lot of people passed on Biggio because of, well, I really don't know. Maybe too many people read Rotowire's, "we expect a sharp decline in 2005." Of course, this was the same group that predicted the demise of many an over-the-hill ballplayer. I often think Rotowire discounts proven aged hitters too much, but I guess we'll find out for sure with this pick.
I have Biggio down for 101 R, 62 RBI, 8 SB, and .768 OPS. Heck, it's pretty much exactly what he's done for the last 2 years at ages 37 and 38, so who am I to say he won't keep it up at 39? Those stats put Biggio at 84% in my rankings and he was far and away the best hitter remaining in my rankings at this point in the draft. I couldn't pass him up without feeling stupid if he does meet his projections.
Oh, and there was that little thing about him possibly playing 2B, which combined with his projections would make him a steal at this pick, IMHO.
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| 83 | Peter N.
ID: 44253219
Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 20:14
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20.15 Erik Hinske, 1B/3B, TOR
This pick is already looking really bad. It now appears that Hinske may be headed for the bench. I drafted him as a filler at CI until McPherson is healthy, but its beginning to look like he won't even be able to do that. Hinske's 2002 campaign is more and more looking like a distant memory.
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| 84 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 08:11
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20.16 Jayson Werth, OF, LOS
Some good fortune came my way when a mistake was made and Jayson Werth was picked up then dropped. I'd had him on my radar my last pick, but thought he'd fall to me unless our Dodger fan, Ref, took, him. Well, he came back and I was happy to snatch him. He's got some power, needs to walk more and can get me some SB's from the OF. The big question right now is will he be healthy? I've heard opening day will see him in the lineup and I've heard a few weeks into the season. I think he's got potential to be a quality pickup, especially this late.
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