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Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Rationales (rounds 21-25)
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Mar 22, 2005, 18:39
Continuing for the final five rounds.
Rounds 1-5 Round 6-10 Round 11-15 Round 16-20 |
| 1 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 08:13
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21.01 Noah Lowry, SP, SFO
Lowry, I hope, will be a quality 6th starter. He's got the second lowest era of the spring (1.98) and will be the forth starter. Bonds being out definitely hurts, and I may not have taken him had I known that, but am not too disappointed. He came up last year, went 6-0 with a 3.82 era and 1.29 whip while getting 73 SO. Not sure what to expect, but hope for an era of around 4.00 and a whip no higher than 1.30 (but that may be a stretch) and somewhere around 120-130 SO's. Time will tell if that's a pipe dream or not.
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| 2 | Peter N.
ID: 44253219
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 10:06
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21.02 Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
The starting spot at SS in Cleveland is now open and Peralta seems to be taking advantage as he's having a decent spring. There weren't alot of MI options left at this point so I decided to go with a guy with at least a little upside. I'm really not expecting much from Peralta. I just hope that he doesn't damage my OBP too badly and maybe he'll swipe a few bags.
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| 3 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 10:13
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21.03 Eric Milton, SP, CIN
43 HR's last year. Ouch! It woulnd't be so bad if Milton were an OFer, but 43 HR given up by a SP is not good. So why did I pick him? I picked him up for Wins and K's and because I think he'll be slightly better than last year. I have him down for 13 W, 144 K, 4.70 ERA, and 1.260 WHIP. That left him at an 84.3% ranking for me and one of the top SP left that wasn't a.) a rookie or b) a sophomore. I suppose it's the anti-Peter N pick. ;)
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| 4 | rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 10:14
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21.04 Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B, SF
MIs and CIs are scare at this point, Edgardo qualifies as both. I was searching for a MI to shore up my gaps as PT for Freel and Luis Gonzo (COL) may fluctuate.
At the time of this pick, there wasn't the Bonds issue out there, which hurts the value of amlost everyone on SF except maybe Feliz.
Reports are (rotowire) that Fonzie is 18 lbs lighter this Spring which will help his back. Although I'd prefer my power potential from a CI, he's pretty decent for a MI. Perhaps .340/.399/60/60/0?
I had heard rumors of the Jason Philips trade to LA when I was making my queue for this pick... but in typical Dodger form, Ref grabbed him well before I had a shot. I considered a few other MIs here and Sledge, but this was the safest pick
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| 5 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 17:51
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21.05 Jason Marquis, SP, STL
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| 6 | Chris
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 17:52
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21.06 Terrmel Sledge, OF, WAS
The 3rd returning player from my team(sort of). I drafted him despite him not being in the yahoo system, and ended up dropping him before he was added. All the reasons I had for drafting him last year still ring true.
I like the way he finished last season, with an 826 OPS in August, and then an 877 OPS in September. Also, any worries about his change of parks dampening his numbers are eased by his 871 road OPS last year. I just hope he gets the playing time to demonstrate how good of a hitter he really is.
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| 7 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 17:53
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21.07 Horacio Ramirez, SP, Atl
I need another starter or two. At this point, I can either work off a general ranking list, or abandon the list and go for some guys with upside that seem to be having good and healthy springs. The generic profile of the guys at the top of my standard list are 12-13 wins, 110 Ks, 4.00 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. There are plenty to pick from. And quite frankly, I don’t think the projections at this juncture are very reliable. Any of these guys could end up much worse (or much better), and there are plenty of lower ranked players who will turn out better.
So, in spite of my generally tendency to crank the numbers, I’m going to shoot from the hip. Atlanta pitchers always seem to perform well, and although Ramirez was hurt for the better part of last year, he pitched well early on, and seems to be healthy this spring. He’s given up only 1 ER and 5 hits in 10 IP this spring – hardly a credible sample, but encouraging, nonetheless. Worth a stab in the 21st round.
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| 8 | Athletics Guy
ID: 32262217
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 17:59
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21.08 Adam LaRoche 1B, ATL
The weakest part of my hitting seemed to be at the CI position, so I decided to take a shot on LaRoche. It looks like he's platooning at 1B with "undrafted future AARP member" again, but his numbers from last year (.944 OPS after the All-Star break) should get him some more playing time this season. He's only 25, so there should still be some upside to his game.
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| 9 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 18:57
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21.09 Jorge Cantu, 2B/3B, TAM
I don't know much about this guy other than he had a great AAA season last year, is having a good spring, and just got handed the 2B job in Tampa Bay.
I as surprised that Jorge got all the way around the top turn and back to me. I found about Alomar about 15 minutes after taking a 2B with my 20th round pick.
Can you have too many guys that are eligible to play the MI positions? I think not. If nothing else, maybe my phone will ring with a trade offer. I could use some pitching or power! :-)
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| 10 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 19:25
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21.10 Jeff Suppan, P, StL
There were several pitchers I was debating between here, but I ended up playing it safe and taking Suppan. With Suppan, I know that I will get 14-16 wins and average ERA/WHIP numbers, but low K/IP.
I was seriously considering Padilla, Wade Miller and Wilson Alvarez. But it looks like both Padilla and Miller will start the season on the DL, and their health will be a question mark the entire year. Alvarez may start in the rotation, but my experience last year owning him in the G20 league is that he actually performs much better in relief and that his performance suffers with the wear and tear of starting. I figured if I picked any of these three it might force my hand in the remaining rounds to pick up another starter to make sure I had enough innings to compete in wins and K's.
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| 11 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 20:10
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21.11 David Riske, RP, CLE
initially I thought about Jorge Cantu with this pick or the next pick. I had to stop my thoughts after pick 21.09. thanks jumpball.
So I don’t need to make a decision and can draft another reliever that I think will put up solid percentages (like 3.5 ERA and 1.30 WHIP) and Ks (over 1 per inning). The possibility of an occasional save would also be appreciated. The list I came up with included Riske, [undrafted} and [undrafted]. Riske has the best spring so far.
I removed the rest of this rationale, because I named the 2 undrafted players and their competition several times. I may include the rest sometime later.
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| 12 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 21:18
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21.12 Xavier Nady, OF, SDG
This pick kind of just came to me.
I had Horacio Ramirez and Nate Robertson as the two players I really wanted. I had went for hitters and now here are two guys that could help me in either ERA in Haracio or Ks in Robertson. I am high on both at this point in the draft. Well when Horacio went off the board, it was Nate all the way.
Then I got word about Nady taking over the every day 3rd base job. I like Nady as a hitter a lot but he never gets the ABs it takes to use him--even in a 20 team league. Having Glaus who's health may be suspect, I started thinking that with most other teams below me going SPs early, that they may be more inclined to go with a hitter like Nady rather than Robertson.
I also thought that there were several other pitchers close to Nate but weren't any 3B that I could see that had the potential of Nady. So, I went with Nady. Of course, Species takes Nate with the next pick so I should have went the other way it seems--though Branyan did go 4 picks later so who knows.
As far as what Nady can do...who knows? He had 371 ABs his rookie season in '03 but only 77 ABs last year. He's torn up S.T. It's been said since this pick that Burroughs will still get the majority of starts at 3rd base. I've been kicking myself since I read that news, but if he continues to hit, can they continue to play the non-hitting Burroughs over him? I think not. This strategy may end up being flawed, but hey, you win some, you lose some. Fortunately, only time will tell.
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| 13 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 23, 2005, 21:55
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21.13 Nate Robertson, SP, DET
I was very happy with this pick....FINALLY someone I targeted midway through the round actually came to me.
I think Robertson was undervalued in this draft due to ratio numbers that exploded at the end of 2004 (4.90 ERA, 1.403 WHIP total) due to an 0-3, 7.36 ERA September. He struck out 155 in 196 IP so he comes with a decent K rate, espcially in the 21st round.
I like him because he enters the season with the confidence of being assured his spot in the rotation, a vastly improved Tigers lineup, a vastly improved Tigers bullpen, and a solid home park to pitch in. I think he can better Rotowire's ratio projections for him of 4.69 ERA and 1.374 WHIP. He's also working on a changeup this spring, which could help.
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| 14 | Toral
ID: 532242314
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 06:47
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21.14 Willy Taveras, OF, Hou
At the time of the selection, Taveras looked to be the Houston centre fielder until Berkman gets back. He's a base thief and draws some walks, so while he is my lineup he should provide some cheap steals, plus some runs. Whether he'll be worth owning after Berkman gets back is an open question.
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| 15 | holt
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 12:41
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21.15 Dustan Mohr, OF, COL
I think he's a decent bet. Very good OBP (.394) with SF last year, and we all know about the home-park effect in Colorado.
here's an excerpt from an article from the rockies website:
Last season, Mohr knocked 1.07 fly balls for every ground ball. In comparison, the Major League average is 1.22 ground balls for every fly ball. If Mohr is elevating the ball at that rate while playing regularly in the low atmospheric pressure of Denver, it stands to reason that he could produce high power numbers with Coors Field as his home. He's stolen a couple of bags during spring training so I can see him getting a few during the season. and even though I already have a lot of OF's (some are injury prone) it never hurts to have one extra. if he blossoms it could open up some trade possibilities for me. if he sucks then he'll be easy to drop.
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| 16 | Matt S
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 12:42
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21.16 Russell Branyan, 3B, MIL
Glaus, Koskie, Ensberg, and McPherson were all players I was hoping to get to fill this position, but it never happened, and I have ended up putting it off until now. With a full time position, I think Branyan has the capability of putting up very good numbers. In an OBP league, he won't hurt me as much in that category, as he will draw a lot of walks. I would like to see him put up a SLG of near .500. I'll give Branyan a chance as my 3B for at least the first 2 months of the season, and then decide if I need to pursue a trade or maybe get lucky with a waiver pickup.
22.01 Jeff Davanon, OF, ANA
This pick could turn out to be one of the steals of the draft if Davanon ends up getting 400 AB. Unfortunately with the logjam of talent in Anaheim, that is unlikely to happen. I made this pick with the knowledge that he would be fighting for at bats with a number of players. However, the next day Davanon was named the starter at DH and #2 hitter. I will use Davanon and other players at the UTIL position at least for the start of the season. I would like to be able to get 15 stolen bases out of him, and although it will probably happen, it might be too much to ask while he is on my active roster.
holt:
22.02 John Buck, C, KAN
I like to keep two catchers around. Not only in case Mauer is injured, but just to cover all the routine days off. I noticed a couple of managers still didn't have a C so I went ahead and took him a couple rounds earlier than I wanted to.
Buck needs to cut down on his whiffs, and probably won't provide a good OBP, but I do expect his BA to be higher this season, and I also expect him to pass the 20 HR mark (I think there's a chance he could hit 30).
If he has a mediocre season I'll have no problem dropping him, but I'm just making a small bet that he'll break out this season.
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| 18 | Toral
ID: 12592412
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 14:13
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22.03 Brandon Lyon, RP, Ari
Lyon has been mentioned by some sources as next in line if Greg Aquino can't go for the Snakes. With Aquino now working his way back from the elbow injury, that makes Lyon worthy of a slot on my closer-challenged club, at least until Aquino is cleared to go and actually closing ball games.
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| 19 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 14:19
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22.04 Vicente Padilla, SP, PHI
Padilla fell this far because he is coming back from triceps tendinitis, an injury that sidelined him for 2 months in 2004. Diagnosed around March 1st, he has had six throwing sessions since then and has reported no problems. The Phillies have taken it very cautiously with him, of the mindset that a week or two in April without him is fine -- let's make sure it isn't 6 or 8 weeks by being careless. Let's hope they know what they're doing.
When healthy, Padilla is a very solid pitcher who is a steal at this point in the draft. In his first two full seasons as a starter for the Phillies, he posted 14 wins each year with ERA's of 3.28 and 3.62 and WHIPs of 1.218 and 1.236. There have been comments over time about a lack of concentration in him - that his stuff is even better than that. His new pitching coach has been very complimentary (but whose isn't in Spring, eh?) of him, so perhaps he's matured a bit and will harness his stuff and make him even better.
I will gladly take a duplication of his 2003 line of 14 wins 3.62 ERA and 1.236 WHIP but think he can do even better.
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| 20 | Ref
ID: 298482214
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 16:15
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22.05 Brian Lawrence, SP, SDG
How did this guy fall so far? How is he so underrated? Well, I'll tell this, his numbers still aren't where they should be. But still, he shouldn't have fallen so far.
Truth is, he's not a strikout pitcher and his era and whip won't dazzle you, but he's steady and now is pitching for a pretty good team. He was over .500 last year and should better that with some run support in a pitcher-friendly park.
I don't think 15 wins are out of the question at all. I also think he will continue to cut his era and whip down. He's close to Nate IMM, but without the Ks. In fact, I think he's better in era/whip. When Nate went, I was hoping to at least to be able to salvage this guy. Still can't believe I got him with the 341st pick!
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| 22 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 16:33
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22.06 Omar Vizquel, SS, SF
looking at my hitters I have no backups at SS and 3B. other needs would be relievers and starters. There are no relievers left that are far better than the rest and there are a lot of starters left that I could take a flyer on in the next rounds.
That leaves me with SS or 3B. since my SS pick in round 20, 3 other shortstops were picked. All of them were on my 5-man-list 2 rounds ago. These picks reduces my list to 1 name. With Russell Branyan also gone it was not a tough decision to make.
Vizquel is the everyday starter in SF, that has to play without Bonds for a lot of months this season. He is good for some stolen bases, should also score more runs than many of the other shortstops. Could be that he is the first player that has to depart when the first hot player emerges.
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| 23 | Slackjawed Yokel
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 17:11
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22.07 B.J.Upton SS, TAM
Sure, he just got sent down to AAA to work on his defense but at some point, they're going to have to call him up for his offense. In half a season in AAA last year he hit 12 homeruns and stole 17 bases. Knowing that I needed a backup at ss, and the fact that he's also eligible at 3B, made this one of the easier picks I made. The value of this selection will hinge on how patient the Rays are in allowing Upton to work on his defense. With the injuries/retirements they've had in the offseason and spring training, hopefully they'll see the need for Upton's offensive capabilities.
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| 24 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 17:14
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22.08 Al Leiter SP, FLA
Yes, I know he doesn't strike out many guys and he walks too many, but his ERA and WHIP are consistently good. My goal is for Al to stay healthy this year and help keep my ERA low and the W's high. I am expecting that he'll get more W's playing for a very good Florida team. At least I sure hope that Florida is a very good team, since I now have their #1 and #2 starters!
Other players considered that have since been drafted: SP Williams, SP Washburn, RP Reitsma, OF Grissom
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| 25 | Athletics Guy
ID: 32262217
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 18:26
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22.09 David Bush, P, TOR
I wanted to add some more depth to my pitching and Bush looked like the best starter available. He gives me an extra option for eating up those extra innings from when I bench Francis for his home starts. His numbers were quite impressive in his first season, with an ERA of 3.69 and WHIP of 1.23 thru 16 starts. He seems to have good control with only 25 walks in 97.2 IP. He won't help me in the K's category, but should keep my ERA/WHIP stable.
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| 26 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 24, 2005, 18:42
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22.10 Jerome Williams, SP, SF
The bad news on Bonds broke shortly before this pick. Now it sounds like he may miss anywhere from 50%-100% of the season. For a league with no DL slot, I’m screwed. Everyone picking from 8-16 can thank me for taking this problem off of their hands.
Fortunately, I took an extra hitter in round 18 (Jacque Jones), who will now be a regular if/until Bonds returns. I looked through the list of remaining hitters, and the most intriguing option I’ve found so far is Juan Gonzalez. Could he stay relatively healthy until Bonds is back? Probably not. In round 21, he might be worth a flyer, but I think I’ll stay the course and pursue pitching. If I need another hitter – and I might – I’ll probably have better luck foraging in the free agent pile after the season begins. I’m already constrained by having one bench slot occupied by Bonds for awhile. No sense adding the Marcus Camby of baseball.
Chewing up a bench slot (with Bonds) probably comes at the expense of one less middle reliever. It also prompts me to want another starter, since I’ll have plenty of innings to absorb. Huston Street was a very tempting relief opportunity for this pick, but even if he turns out to be as good as his spring training suggests, he probably wouldn’t log enough IP to provide enough benefit from his ratios.
Jerome Williams fits the youth theme of my staff, which has an average age of just under 24. He’s coming off elbow surgery, but should be healthy to start the season. His spring training has not been particularly productive, although some of that has been blamed on a family medical situation that has kept him a bit preoccupied. The possible loss of Bonds gives me a little concern, because that could cost any Giants starter a few wins. But Williams has been near the top of my ranking list for several rounds, and now seems like the time that the upside is worth the risk.
There aren’t many other starters I was toying with heading onto this pick, but one was David Bush, who disappeared with the pick immediately prior to this one. I’d have probably taken Williams anyway, but that made the decision a bit easier.
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| 27 | Chris
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 09:44
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22.11 Robb Quinlan, 3B, ANA
I'm starting to regret this pick, as when I took him, I figured McPherson would be out for longer, but the latest news on Dallas is encouraging(but unfortunately, not encouraging for me). Quinlan had a 926 OPS last year, which he won't repeat, simply because he won't hit .344 again, but I do believe he can have an OPS in the 850 range. Of course, the value of this pick hinges on playing time, and the Angels have so much depth, it's hard to know who's going to play when. My best bet is for Quinlan to get out to a real fast start.
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| 28 | beastiekmied
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 09:44
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22.12 David Newhan, 3B, BAL
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| 29 | rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 09:45
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22.13 Jarrod Washburn, SP, ANA
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| 30 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 10:03
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22.14 Marquis Grissom, OF, SFO
I'm really not expecting much out of this pick except a replacement should one of my OFers underperform or get injured. Then again, at 38 years old (Apr. 17), he might be the one going down.
So, what do I expect from Grissom? Not much except consistency. I have him down for 79 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB, and .793 OPS. Looking back over his last 2+ years, I think this is reasonable.
He probably won't start the season in my lineup, but could get some spot starts based on matchups, stadiums, etc.
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| 31 | Peter N.
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 10:05
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22.15 Joe Blanton, SP, OAK
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| 32 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 11:00
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22.16 Huston Street, RP, OAK
23.01 Tike Redman, OF, PIT
I looked at Street as a low risk/high reward pick. It's highly likely that he'll make the team and if you believe some opinions, that he'll force the A's to trade Dotel. I think that's unrealistic, and don't expect more than a couple of saves or wins. But, you never know. His ratios have been good and he can get some SO's. But, he's only 20 and I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, so this could have been a wasted pick.
It appears Redman has been given the starting CF job and has been having a good spring. I wanted some insurance for Werth as it's still up in the air when he'll be back in the lineup. Redman can get some steals and hopefully won't destroy my obp and slg. He's definitely a weak link and someone I hope I won't need to start too much (unless he really surprises).
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| 33 | Peter N.
ID: 362182510
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 11:24
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23.02 Mark Teahen, 3B, KC
[placeholder]
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| 34 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 11:42
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23.03 Chris Reitsma, RP, ATL
This is officially an, "Oh crap, Borowski's out for at least the first month!" pick. I'm hoping that Rotowire is right and that Kolb's low K/9 last year means he's due for some failure this year. If so, Reitsma should be able to step in quite nice.
If not, this isn't a totally lost pick as Reitsma will provide some decent K's at a reasonable ERA/WHIP cost. I'm figuring that even if he doesn't claim the closer's role, he should be good for 5+ saves.
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| 35 | rockafellerskank
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 11:43
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23.04 Alex Sanchez, OF, TAM
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| 36 | beastiemiked
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 13:54
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23.05 Aaron Miles, 2B, COL
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| 37 | Chris
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 14:10
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23.06 Antonio Perez, SS, LA
I've been considering JJ Hardy, Russ Adams, Ruben Gotay, Antonio Perez and a couple others for my backup MI slot. While the others all have starting jobs, Perez doesn't. Why take Perez then? He's the best baseball player out of that group, and the upside is a lot higher. Last year he had an 890 OPS with 61 BB and 87 k's in AAA, and he already has some big league experience. Again, I'm hoping he gets off to a quick start, and forces Tracy to play him somewhere(he's pretty versatile, can play 2B, SS, 3B).
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| 38 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 14:12
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23.07 Wilson Alvarez, P, LAD
I wasn’t sure if I wanted a starter or a reliever, so I took both. Alvarez will most likely be used as he was last year, primarily in relief, but with occasional starts. His overall stats were pretty good, but if you throw out his road starts (and perhaps I’ll bench him for those), his results were 83 IP, 5W, 1S, 73K, 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. That’s the type of stat line I’d like from a non-closing reliever.
His road starts? 37.2 IP, 2W, 29K, 7.88 ERA, 1.51 WHIP. Yikes! Statistical anomaly? Or cause and effect? Probably some of each. Regardless, in round 23, there are no sure things. I’ll settle for a plausible story – even if he fails to fit in with my youth movement. A little veteran influence might help anyway.
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| 39 | Athletics Guy
ID: 422542515
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 16:54
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23.08 Wade Miller, SP, BOS
I'm not a really a big fan of having an injured player taking up a valuable bench slot, but I'll make an exception in this case. Current reports say Miller won't be pitching for at least a month. Hopefully, it won't be too much time before I can use him. When healthy, he gives my pitching a huge boost. Assuming he's back to his old self and comes close to his career numbers, he may end up being my 2nd best pitcher. I'd say that's good value this late in the draft.
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| 40 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 17:23
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23.09 Juan Gonzalez, OF, CLE
Now I've got 2 OFs that are likely to go down with an injury. Hopefully, some obvious replacements will emerge at that time.
At this stage of the draft, it was hard to ignore the stats that Juan Gone could put up in the middle of the Cleveland batting order, if he remains healthy of course.
If I get a combined season and a half from Gone & Griff, my hitting category numbers should be better than solid. If not, well, that's why we play the games, isn't it? :-)
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| 41 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 17:39
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Bob Howry, RP, Cle
As I figure it, I'm still below the maximum innings limit. I could still use another hitter, but that can probably wait. I had a shortlist of pitchers I would consider, mostly relievers. Howry stuck out because he has the potential to get some saves, and I managed to only get a single closer in this draft. Last year he put up some solid numbers for Cleveland and I expect more of the same this year (below 3.5 era and 1.25 whip).
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| 42 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 17:52
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23.11 Ruben Gotay, 2B, KC
Durham was injured today (the day I made this pick), Burke will likely be not the starter, so I may need another 2B to start the season. Gotay is hot this spring and was named the Royals 2nd baseman today. Obvious pick for me.
I’m hoping that Gotay can at least resume that hot bat until Durham and/or Burke are at full throttle.
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| 43 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 19:26
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23.12 Brett Tomko, SP, SFO
I struggled with this pick a little since Barry's out and one analyst felt that Barry wins two games per month by himself. Well I just threw that out the window. I got him in G20 as well. In fact, it seems I've got a few of the same players in both league. Perhaps I've overrated these guys--who knows. But I use my gut more than any cheat sheets. A lot of that is history and how he fits in his current lineup.
Tomko was almost unhittable at the end of last year. With the park he plays in (though oddly he did better last year on the road) I think he could be pretty good even on a so-so day. But if he can pick up where he left off--that would be fantastic with this pick. I don't expect that all the time, but I'm thinking he will have a few games like that and I can live with that.
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| 44 | Species @ WAB's
ID: 31833145
Fri, Mar 25, 2005, 20:30
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23.13 Wily Mo Pena, OF, CIN
Just an upside/value pick here. I do not believe he will start the season in the Reds outfield, he will be behind Dunn/Griffey/Kearns. But there are plenty of injury prone players between those 3 as well as Sean Casey, who Dunn would replace at 1b if he ever gets hurt. Plus, there is the possibility Pena will get traded, as his power bat has generated much interest from other teams.
This could be a valuable piece of trade bait, a contributing member of my roster or someone to cut for a FA I might need. At least there's some possible upside and value, which is always desired late in the draft.
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| 45 | KrazyKoalaBears
Leader
ID: 517553018
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 13:53
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24.14 Jorge Julio, RP, BAL
Yes, this is another "Oh, crap Borowski's out!" pick, but like Reitsma I think there's value in this pick otherwise. Rotowire reports that Julio was able to get his fastball up to 91-96 MPH, so I'm hoping there's a chance he can get back to 2002 form. Regardless, I think there's opportunity for some saves here even if he doesn't take over the closers role somehow. Again, in the 5+ range like Reitsma. Here's hoping Kolb and Ryan implode!
25.03 Russ Adams, SS, TOR
"Your attention, please. If there is a starting inner midfielder still available, would you please raise your hand?"
Ta-dah! Thanks for raising your hand Russ. This is purely a bench move. Nothing more, nothing less. I have zero expectations that he'll repeat his brief appearance stats from last year. He's going to start the season in the 9th spot and MIGHT have an opportunity to move up in the order, but unless he catches fire, he's not going to be in my lineup until Furcal or Walker go down.
If that happens, this pick ensures that I won't have to hit the FA list looking for someone who is at least in a pinch-hitting role. Adams is a starter and should remain a starter all season.
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| 46 | Chris
ID: 4708114
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 14:45
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24.11 Scott Strickland, RP, NYM
Quite simply, he's a good relief pitcher, who slipped through the cracks because he didn't pitch last year(Tommy John). Not in the yahoo system yet so I'll have to tough it out until he gets added(hopefully soon)
25.06 Jesse Foppert, SP/RP, SF
Yet another upside pick, one of the pitchers with the highest ceiling out there. He was going to be my sleeper pick last year, but ended up getting hurt, which pushed his timetable back. Now he's not even slated in the rotation, but he's definitely the first in line for some starts if anybody in the rotation is hurt/ineffective. I think he's still a year away from being a big league success, but in the 25th round, I'm willing to gamble that he might make a splash this year.
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| 47 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 15:24
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24.10 Joe Crede, 3B, CWS
With the Bonds situation so tenuous, I thought another hitter might come in handy, especially since my third baseman, Corey Koskie, has been sidelined with a groin injury for most of the spring.
It’s put up or shut up time for Crede. At age 26, he should be coming into his prime, but he’ll need to do much better than last year to hang around on my roster. Curiously, I’ve looked at four different projections for him, and every one shows an improvement across the board. The consensus is 71-78-1-.315-.460. I hope they’re right, because last year his percentages were only .299/.418.
There are three pitchers I also considered, but I figured at least one would make it back to me. I couldn’t find a good hitting alternative (I’m sure there are many out there, I just couldn’t find them), so I decided to go with the bird in the hand.
25.07 Kevin Gregg, RP, Ana
Looking for a pitcher. The three I have been mulling were Capuano, Gregg, and Farnsworth. Before making a final decision, I figured I’d wait to see if any of them disappeared. Peter N. took Capuano at 25.02, so I chose between Gregg and Farnsworth.
Their projected profiles are pretty similar. Both strike out roughly one per inning, but neither had the kind of ratios (last year) that you would want from a middle reliever. Each is pitching well this spring.
I finally went with Gregg, who is 2 years younger (26). There is reportedly a chance that he could make a spot start as well. I don’t know if that’s good or not.
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| 48 | youngroman
ID: 298482214
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 15:38
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24.06 Gavin Floyd, SP, PHI
it is time to start picking some gambles. Floyd is gamble #1. from todays point of view he should make rotation (with Padilla out) in Philly. He is having an outstanding spring that puts him ahead of the remaining starting pitchers on my list. I can’t assume that he continues at this pace, but an ERA below 4 and 7 K per 9 innings with 10+ wins could be possible. His WHIP is also down this spring.
Steal or bust? The next month decides.
25.11 Tomo Ohka, SP, WAS
I expect the Nationals winning more games than last year (67). if they win 80 games, Ohka should pick up 13-15 of them. he won't hurt me in ERA as much as some other pitchers I considered. I also figured that I am very good in SOs and WHIP so I don't need those stats from him, but he isn't really hurting there either.
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| 49 | Athletics Guy
ID: 422542515
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 16:32
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24.09 Brian Schneider, C, WAS
I went with last year's strategy, which was to take my catcher at the very end of the draft. I would have waited another round, but RFS was without a catcher too. Schneider looked like the best one available, which doesn't say much considering there were only a handful of starters left. He shouldn't hurt my OBP too badly though, as he walks a lot. And I will enjoy every one of his 30 RBIs and 30 Runs. Anything after that is a bonus!
25.08 Adam Kennedy, 2B, ANA
With Reyes as my starting 2B, I used this pick for some insurance in case he gets hurt again. Kennedy looks to be out for the first month or so. Hopefully Reyes doesn't get hurt at the beginning of the season. Kennedy looks like a capable backup on my team. If he's back to his old .350 OBP/.400 SLG self, I may even find him useful enough to be in my lineup regardless of Reyes' situation.
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| 50 | Peter N.
ID: 532282612
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 17:09
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24.15 Antonio Alfonseca, RP, FLA
I firmly believe that Mota will be able to step in and dominate at closer. However, might as well grab the guy who'd benefit if Mota does faulter. There was also a grumbling earlier in spring training that McKeon may use Alfonseca to close out games too. I'm not sure how much truth there is to it, but I've basically handcuffed myself to the Florida closer position.....and that's not too bad when you look at the pitching staff they have and the addition they made at hitter. Hoping that ol six-fingers won't hurt my ERA and WHIP too much.
25.02 Chris Capuano, SP, MIL
Capuano has a nice strikeouts per 9 innings rate and that's hard to find this late in the draft. If healthy, this could be a nice value pick. However, his downfall has always been staying healthy. I'm basically just taking a flier on him on the off-chance that he stays healthy
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| 51 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 17:17
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24.07 Joe Randa, 3b, Cin
I was specifically going for a third baseman here. Having a third baseman in addition to Aubrey Huff (I 'm not counting BJ Upton as he's in AAA) allows me to take advantage of his multiposition eligibility. I can do some lineup juggling by moving Huff to OF or 1B and plug Randa into the lineup in case of injuries or days off. The two guys I liked at this late stage were Randa and Joe Crede. I ended up going with Randa because of his higher OBP and an increase in power that I expect with him now in Cincy.
25.10 Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Det
Instead of taking a flyer on someone that might have a chance of helping later in the year, I decided to go with Farnsworth who I know should contribute. I was still estimating that I'd be slightly below the max innings, so another RP wouldn't hurt. Farnsworth has had control issues throughout his career (in more ways than one), but I'll give him a chance - his spring numbers have been quite good. I'll take his strikeouts until something better comes along...
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| 52 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 17:30
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24.05 Dewon Brazleton, SP, TAM
Had John Lackey and Brazelton as my two guys I was strongly considering. Lackey went off before me. This left me with Dewon as my top pick--though I did more looking before actually picking. KB accidently put the wrong guy in for me and 4 or 5 more managers picked before I could make my pick--but fortunately, no one I was considering left the board--that helped!
Dewon is somewhat of an enigma. He pitches well at home but is absolutely putrid on the road. He is the opening day pitcher for the Rays and is lined up for his first three starts at home. It will be rare that I'd let him play when he's pitching on the road. He's a youngster and hoping his upside is, well, way up!
25.12 Brandon League, RP, TOR
Another youngster. This is the Jays' top prospect and he has already made the team as a MR. He has been rumored that he'd be the closer by July, but with Batista in, who knows. He also has the stuff to join the rotation. His ratios are very good and gets people out. This could be a huge steal if he turns into a closer--esp. with the stuff he's shown last year and thus far this Spring.
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| 53 | holt
ID: 6227147
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 20:02
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23.15 Orlando Hernandez, SP, CWS
24.2 Jose Contreras, SP, CWS
I really don't know why El Duque dropped this far. As long as he's on the mound and not on the DL he's great. He just threw 85 pitches a couple days ago so he's ok for now. if he gets hurt, oh well. until that happens I expect an ERA below 4.00, whip under 1.30, and 7-8 K/9.
I think Contreras' ERA last season was an anomaly. he gives up less than 9H/9 and is good for close to 9k/9. just needs to cut down on the walks and long balls just a bit. I know he had some rough outings last season. dunno what the problem was. some games he looks dominant. I'm just hoping he can sort it out. I'm not patient enough to put up with many bad outings.
25.15 Jerry Hairston Jr., 2b, CHC
I really didn't know who to take this last round. I really wanted someone who could cover me at ss and 3rd but there just wasn't much left. I can always pick up someone else later. I figure hairston will get at least over 400 AB for the cubs, he's a decent SB threat and he's not horrible with the bat. he's better than several other MI's that were drafted, in my opinion. he'll also qualify as an OF but god help me if I ever have to resort to that. He went a few rounds earlier in some of the other drafts. I think he's a pretty good pick as the second to last pick in the draft.
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| 54 | rockafellerskank
ID: 180352016
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 20:33
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24.13 Esteban Loaiza (P), WAS
No one is gonna tell you 2003 will ever be duplicated,
but I do think the CHW to NYY thing was not his cup of
tea. He was 9-4 when traded and was a disaster after
that. I think the quieter atmoshpere (media) of WAS will settle
him down. Happy with a 12-12 season... maybe 4.00/1.40
and 5.5K/9IP.... I may play best matchup with him
throghout the year. He also could be an early canidate
to go bye-bye should a need emerge or a hot player
develop.
25.04 Bengie Molina, C, LAAAA
I need a C. Simple. Last pick and I choose between the
Molina brothers.
For me, I never draft C's early [picked the same C
last in G20 whci is 23 rounds x 20 owners] as you can
often play musical catcher and rotate who is how/who is
not. Once the elite were gone (too high for me), I
never looked at a C again until the Phillips trade was
announced, but I was out of position. No doubt my
weakest single position, but I'd be willing to bet by
years end I can create better than 16th place stats
from the C slot overall.
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| 55 | darkside
Dude
ID: 3590317
Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 22:00
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24.16 David Bell, 3B, PHI
25.01 J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
With my last two picks I knew I was going to take Bell and had to decided between Hardy and another pitcher. Bell I wanted as I figured he has good upside. If he gets the 3B job back from Polanco, he should be an excellent backup 3B which I think I may need from time to time with Aramis as my primary.
What finally got me to take Hardy is the news that Spivey may not be fully recovered from his shoulder surgery. Hardy is a rookie but has been handed the starting SS job with Mil. If nothing else he'll be in the lineup everyday, which will make him a servicable backup MI. Really no idea what to expect as far as numbers, but don't expect much, so anything good will be positive.
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| 56 | Toral
ID: 152212521
Sun, Mar 27, 2005, 19:36
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24.03 Matt LeCroy, C, Min
With Mike Piazza behind the plate for me it behooves me to have either a second catcher or a plan for a quick replacement pick-up. There were a few starting catchers who intrigued me here but I decided that round 24 was an appropriate time for a risk. LeCroy has been a better hitting prospect than ML hitter but there seems to be some potential there as yet untapped. Joe Mauer has taken the starting catcher slot from him, and he faces competition at the DH slot that keeps him out of a regular post as well. But with Mauer's injuries, there is the possibility of LeCroy getting more playing time than he would if the season started immediately, and there is still the possibility that giving a chance to play he will start thumping the ball and be hard to get out of the lineup.
LeCroy kills lefties, and is a fine catcher starter against them; if I can arrange things so that Piazza's days off coincide with the the Twins facing lefties, I may have something here. If not, it's back to the drawing board.
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| 57 | Toral
ID: 152212521
Sun, Mar 27, 2005, 19:50
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25.14 Mark Grudzielanek, 2B, StL
At the time I picked news was that Keith Ginter was losing out in his battle for the As 2B job which would leave me without a starting MI. This seems to me to be undesirable, so I scoured the lists of MIs and was rather pleased to find that there was a gem left buried the rubble in round 25. I was sweating out the picks before mine. I suppose Grudzielanek gets no respect because he's 34 (OK, 35 in June), doesn't walk much in an OBP league, and played only a half season because of injuries. Nevertheless, he's a decent-hitting starter in a high-scoring lineup, and Larussa has even been toying with the idea of batting him leadoff. His .355/.420 record of the last 2 years is quite within his reach again and in round 25 I consider him a steal here.
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| 58 | jumpball
Sustainer
ID: 33050298
Sun, Mar 27, 2005, 22:51
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24.09 Scott Hatteberg 1B, OAK
I had originally planned to take a pitcher here (likely would have been Capuano, Byrd, or Tavaras), but it was hard to ignore Scott's 87 runs, 82 RBIs and .360 OBP last year. He won't be in the #2 slot to start the year, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him and Kendall switch places relatively soon to take advantage of that high OBP. I got him mainly to take over the Util slot when my first OF goes down. He should at least keep the 3 categories I mentioned respectable.
25.08 Paul Byrd, LAAoA, SP
I had to take a pitcher here for my bench and 1 of the 3 that I was thinking about last round and another that went undrafted were available.
It didn't take me long to settle on Byrd. He looked to be healthy again last year and if he's completely recovered is likely to get double digit wins this year. If you toss out the last game last year (when he tired), he had 8 wins with a 3.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 18 starts. Moving to the AL will bump up the ERA and WHIP, but if i get 12 wins, 3.70 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP with a 25th round pick, that will help a weaker than i'd like pitching staff.
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