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0 Subject: RIBC 2005 - Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 13:40

This thread is for overall comments on the draft.

RIBC Managers - please comment on any of the following:
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.

1KrazyKoalaBears
      Leader
      ID: 517553018
      Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 14:15
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My overall plan, in case it can't be guessed from my results, was to solidify my MI and CI while adding obvious picks as they were available. By "obvious picks," I'm referring to players who remained above the pack on my cheat sheet. So, if there was a MI/CI that I was looking at available in a round that was closely ranked with his peers and a SP that was heads and tails above his peers on my cheat sheet, then I planned to take the SP.

Overall, I think I executed my plan exactly how I wanted to. I surprised quite a few people with my Soriano in the 1st round, but on my cheat sheet, he was far better than any other 2B. Per my plan, I had to take him. Same thing with Furcal. In fact, through 8 rounds, I had taken 4 MI/CI (until I switched Green to OF).

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorites: Peavy, Clemens, Gonzalez, and DeJesus. Mostly because these players fell further than I expected. Part of my MI/CI plan was based on having good/solid OFers and pitchers available further down the draft than I previously used to expect.

Do Overs: Borowski (injured) and Green (taken as 1B, but now OF; didn't need him at that round)

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like PeterN's for all the potential it has. Then again, that could end up as total failure, but given the chance to own/manage any of the other teams, it would be PeterN's. I also like his last 4 picks. Solid potential, with a potential closer. Good stuff.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
How many prospects were taken before the last few rounds. I know it always seems like more in the current year, but there's a lot of potential coming up from the minors this year and I was surprised at how many people jumped on board.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Probably not. I'm quite pleased with my team and am quite pleased with how I executed my plan. The only thing I might have done differently was go after a bit more potential like PeterN.
2youngroman
      ID: 298482214
      Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 14:51
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
my plan was to pick a top-pitcher in round 2. that worked well as I got Curt. It turned out that I also had the chance to get RJ in round 1. The rest of the draft was simple: get the best hitter available and if there is good value take another starting pitcher. All turned out really well until the closer run started, that left me with no reliable option there. I'm usually not reaching for a player at any position, so I waited again and got Tsao in round 11.
I also wanted that the majority of my players should be veterans and something like sure bets. I think the hot young prospects that will break out this year will not get drafted and will be available on waivers when the season is under way.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
RJ, he will destroy opposing hitters on a consistent bases all year. to get him at #11 is a steal. Zito could also be huge for a 9th round pick.
Chris Burke could be my worst pick of the draft if he does not see a lot of action this year. I thought he could be huge this year, today that looks completely different.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Guru – he went in a completely other direction, picking no starting pitcher until round 11. his hitting will be tough to beat.
Slackjawed Yokel – his team looks similar to mine. strong in starting pitching and average in all other aspects of the game

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
- that not many players slipped through.
- the early closer run. I expected it 10 picks later
- the way MI-eligible players are hunted. I don't think that these positions will be that much of a problem.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I should have started the closer run in round 4.
3Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 15:22
General strategy: I didn’t have a specific game plan, although I did hope to fill some of the thinner slots (middle infield, in particular) sooner than later, assuming I could do so without extreme reaches. I wanted at least 2 quality closers, and needed to be careful about getting behind on that need. I was going to be willing to defer on starting pitching to an extent, based in part on my dismal pitching draft last year (Halladay, Contreras…) If I found good value in the first 10 rounds, I’d grab a starter. I thought that I might be able to get Ben Sheets in round 2, but that didn't happen.

As the draft unfolded, I didn’t take a starter until Bonderman in round 11. Even that may have been a slight stretch, but I was concerned that I might end up with no starters, and my relievers (Wagner and Guardado at the time) weren’t going to carry the day. I had also hoped to pick up a solid setup man (or two) around round 15-16, but everyone of those seemed to go about a round earlier than I was willing to jump. As a result, my pitching starts out as a big question mark, with plenty of potential, but a high likelihood that one or two will implode.

My hitting should be strong, although it won’t be nearly as strong unless Bonds plays more than half of the season. In retrospect, I underestimated the risk of his knee injury – although I may also have underestimated his mental resilience. We’ll see. If I could do it again, I’d go for Helton or Abreu. A first round draft pick is a terrible thing to waste. Having wasted last year’s first rounder on Halladay, I should have had a healthier respect for the downside risk.

Even so, barring more injuries, I think my hitting will be better than median, even if Bonds sits all year.

In most of the Invitational seasons, I’ve come out of the draft feeling that I have a contender, only to be cellar dwelling by the end of the first month when key players are either injured or fail to deliver. This season, I go into the season with much more trepidation, which might be good. I doubt if this team, as currently configured, can win it all. So I’ll be more inclined to actively look for opportunities.

Other than switching the Bonds pick - which could still work out OK - I have no regrets on my decisions for now. I was disappointed to miss out on quality setup men, but it appears that part of the early push for those guys may have been premised on the assumption that I would be jumping on them early, as I did last year.

Hopefully, my starting pitching will keep me competitive in the ratios. I have a lot of young arms with potential, but most is unproven: Bonderman, Willis, Arroyo, Kazmir, H Ramirez, J. Williams.
4Chris
      ID: 4708114
      Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 15:34
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I'm a big fan of filling position scarcity early, but the way I look at it is to take a player before there is a noticable talent drop-off to the next player. My research going into this draft consisted of looking through the projected starting lineups, and identifying potential breakout candidates, guys who would slip farther than they should. Last year, I did basically the same thing, and it proved to be hit(Bay, Dunn, Peavy, Hafner) and miss(Sledge, Bigbie, Reyes). This time, I tried to refine my approach, and figure out which players were more likely to succeed and which ones would fail. Basically, I tried to stay away from pure rookies, with a couple of exceptions(Colorado players, and Jason Bartlett...would have also made an exception for Jeremy Reed). After identifying which players I wanted at which positions, I tried to gather an idea of where they would go in the draft, and what my backup plan would be if I missed out on them. For instance, I had no backup plan for Closser, so I decided to take Varitek earlier on to play it safe. The young players I'm banking on this year include MYoung, Wright, Figgins, Mench, Lane, Atkins, Bedard, Holliday, Closser, Bartlett, Haren, Sledge, and others. May seem like a stretch to some, but they each have compelling reasons on why they should produce.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

My 2 biggest sleepers in the draft, I took consecutively in the 14th and 15th rounds, Atkins and Bedard. Looking at the other drafts, I regret taking Bedard so early, since he went 25th round in AAA, and 23rd round in one of the AA's. That said, KKB took Cliff Lee in the 9th round(someone I also had my eye on), and I was worried he would take Bedard, since there's really no separating their performance last year. I regret taking Figgins in the 6th round, since it appears he'll be batting 9th this year. Since he's not a big OPS guy, his positional flexibility and counting stats were really the
only reason I drafted him so early. I regret taking Escobar 9th round, because doing that caused me to end up with only 1 closer, which is my biggest, most glaring weakness.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

ref's team has the best player at 2 positions(Tejada and VMart), a lot of very good late round upside picks(Phillips, Choi, Williams, Penny) and 3 solid closers.

Species' team seems to have no glaring weaknesses, other than catcher and lack of MI depth(both minor).

PeterN's team has a lot of potential, but mixed in with some great upside picks(Morneau, Bay, Reed) are some shaky upside picks(McPherson, Barmes, Swisher) in my opinion.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

This draft was much tougher than last year, as guys who I felt would slip would end up being snapped up 4 or 5 rounds before I thought they would go at times. Consequently, I was forced to take guys I liked earlier than I would've wanted to, hurting my overall team depth. Other than that, I would say KKB's Soriano pick at #3 was the surprise of the draft for me :)

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

The single player that I am most upset about not getting was Jeremy Bonderman. I feel like I'm going to be kicking myself all year for not taking him when I had the chance. Also, I'm upset with myself for only ending up with 1 closer. Last year, there were still starting closers available as late as the 16th round, but this year, nobody was there by the end of the 11th. In hindsight, I didn't need the 3rd starting pitcher in he 9th round(SP is always plenty deep), and should've taken a 2nd closer instead.
5Ref
      Donor
      ID: 539581218
      Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 15:37
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

To not mess around much with pitchers. IMM, there are not enough pitching innings so why bother getting pitchers and being even with your hitters when hitters games won't run out and pitchers will? My plan was to get the best hitters available. I'd grab one nice pitcher in rounds 3 or 4 if, and only if, he slipped. I knew I'd need a closer, so I'd look there in round 4 or 5. Then I'd fill in and try to take the best available player with particular attention to MI. I'd try and get a MI early if I could and perhaps some steals or two MIs. I'm not going to rely on trading as it's difficult so the draft is key.

Turns out, I somehow got Tejada with the 12th pick. Amazing. MI...check. 2nd round pick I got not only some steals, but an amazing obp--something I'm typically weak in. Then I reached a smidge for a catcher, but his upside was just too tempting for me to pass up. I saw Hudson in the 4th and grabbed him. I knew then that I wasn't going to touch another starter for a long time. When the closer run came, there were so many reaches in my view that I just kept snagging best available hitter. Kept chanting, "Stay the course" and " Don't get caught up."

I was still able to get three nice closers (though injury suspect) and get them relatively cheaply while everyone else has turned their attention back to hitters and SPs. I also was able to get a fair share of SPs at the end. Since they are typically the first ones thrown back anyhow--it shouldn't hurt me. I wasn't planning to have 10 pitchers to start the year off, but Penny is hurt and like I said, there may be one or two getting thrown back or not starting every time their turn is up in the rotation.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I have a lot of favorite picks. Am really happy over how my draft went, but I've been that way before. A lot of times I am upset with my draft and do well, so it's really hard to tell.

I think the ones that fell that could be the biggest steals are:
(overall pick)

1.12 Miguel Tejada (12)
2.05 Ichiro Suzuki (21)
4.05 Tim Hudson (53)
5.12 Corey Patterson (76)
6.05 Carlos Lee (85)
7.12 Troy Glaus (108)
8.05 Troy Percival (117)
9.12 Bob Wickman (140)
10.05 Mike Adams (149)
11.12 Dmitri Young (172)

One might say, 'man with all those steals, he must be ready to kill this league.' Well not so fast. If you look, I'm missing SPs except for Hudson. I will be hurting in those cats it appears with the guys I have. My hitters can't do it all. But what I'm hoping for is for everyone to hit their max innings marks or at least have to bench their top pitchers to keep from doing that as I chug along. Besides, I've found that I can find pitchers on the FA wire easier than I can find big hitters or base thiefs.

Some of my mistakes may be: Choi in the 16th and a few others that I took with perhaps better players still on the board. Thing is cheat sheets are someone else's gut feelings as they look at numbers and their outlook. Yeah they may only do this for a living and may have all kinds of tools at their disposal, but I've got to do my research and use my memories from last year to kind of give me an idea where I think a certain player should be. Therefore, cheat sheets to me are a guide so I don't forget anyone or if I have no clue they can help give me an idea what other people think.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Well, I am NOT a big fan of the youth movement in a non-keeper league when those guys are going to be assured enough playing time to make a contribution. I am more in line with a team that has solid player histories and other players who appear to have big upsides.

Teams I like:

Well now that I see Guru's team, he seems to have a similar mindset as I do--though Bonds' absence will kill him early. If not for the Bonds injury, I'd say he'd be one of the teams to beat. Even with Bonds out though, he can do some serious damage. I like Bellhorn's obp at 2B, Blake's flexibility as a 3B, CI and OF and the speed/power of his OF.

jumpball's team also looks like a good one. He only has 4 OFs, but I really like his first stringers a lot. His pitching could be deadly as well.

Yokel also looks solid. First stringers all solid and even some backups good be great.

Toral, holt and even with Pete's youngsters, he has a fine team.

In fact, there isn't a team on the board that doesn't impress me to some degree.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The closer run. There were plenty of closers left. Why would so many managers of this caliber get involved in that? Why would they let so many great hitters fall so far? Maybe they know something I don't afterall. We shall see.

The youth movement. As I stated previously, why take so many chances on the youngsters that might not get enough PT to be worth much in a non-keeper league and only four bench spots?

Why so many SPs taken so early?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Ask me this in a few weeks and I'll have all kinds of answers for you, but as of right now, the draft went better than imagined.
6Peter N.
      ID: 532282612
      Sat, Mar 26, 2005, 17:00
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My strategy this year was similar to last year's strategy. Hitter heavy to start. I've been burned plenty of times spending a high round draft pick on a stud pitcher only to see him get hurt. Also, I think hitter's are easier to predict and less of a risk to get hurt. I did have two important differences in strategy though from last year. One difference was in addressing the closer position. Last year, I saw some value and sleepers at closer. I just didn't see that this year so I made it a point to draft two solid closers early this year. The second difference was one that many began to notice as the draft unfolded. The theme of this draft was upside at hitter and that was the plan going in. This year especially, I really like alot of the young hitters out there so I made it a point to gamble on that rather than veterans. Perhaps I should've had a mix of the two, time will tell, but everytime I came up to pick, I just liked the upside of the younger players over a veteran which I know what I will get assuming they stay healthy. I think its an easier adjustment for a hitter than a pitcher which is why I was willing to gamble so much on young hitting. You’ll notice that I didn’t go as young at pitcher.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

My favorite pick of the entire draft is Morneau in the 3rd round. I’m sure many thought that was early, but I really see him exploding this year. He has immense upside that I think will be realized now that he has a full-time job. I also liked Vazquez in the 9th, both Reed and Swisher, and then Blanton in the 22nd.

Two picks that I really wish I could do over are Westbrook and Hinske. When I drafted Westbrook, I thought for sure Broussard OR Brazoban would make it back. That didn’t happen. The Hinkse pick is just ugly. He might not even start and has been pathetic so far in Spring Training play. Screwing that pick up also forced me to use another pick to cover for it which took away from me selecting a sleeper at MR or SP.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I hadn’t really looked at any other teams that closely, but one team that stands out for me Chris’ team. Hmm, is that a coincidence since we had similar strategies????.....I think not!!! ;-) No, but seriously, he took so many guys off my queue and actually has probably the better mix of young talent and more experienced players. He also has an ace in Santana. Its definitely a team to watch out for.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The closer run starting that early did catch me off guard, but I was luckily in position to draft two solid choices. Also, not really a surprise, but players don’t slip here. I realized that again this year and had to get burned a few times before I changed my strategy there.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Nope, I really like my team. It’s full of upside and potential on the hitting side. I’m excited to see how this pans out. Of course, I don’t want to go from the penthouse to the outhouse, but if this upside theme doesn’t go as I predict, I’ll be getting the boot this year after winning it all last year.



7Matt S in Mexico
      ID: 31292715
      Sun, Mar 27, 2005, 17:13
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I, like most others, identified MI as the shallowest position in the draft. With my first six picks, I wanted to fill all 3 MI slots, take 2 upper tier closers and a top end catcher. I was shocked at how early some of the MI were taken, and it caused me to abandon this strategy temporarily. From there, I would fill my CI slots, take a couple of SPs and begin filling in the holes in my OF and elsewhere. That part went smoother than I could have asked for, as I feel I ended up able to pluck a few players way after they should have been taken. That's what I was relying on from the beginning. While others were still scrambling to pick MIs and closers that could very well have no value, I would be filling roster spots with established players. No pick would go wasted in this draft.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I am in love with my starting rotation of pitchers, considering how late I began to take them. Colon, Buehrle, Brown, Pettitte, Ru.Ortiz in combination with my RP crew should yeild numbers across the top of the board in the pitching categories.

My favourite hitter selections are Mike Sweeney, Coco Crisp and Jeff Davanon. All 3 of these players have terrific upside to them. I can't really be thrilled with any of my other picks, as they are for the most part very safe picks (ie. Shannon Stewart, Derek Jeter, Jose Vidro, Wilkerson, Pudge) We all know what these players will do. None of them are injury risks, too old, or too young. I could pinpoint their production nearly to a tee. That is why they were selected over some players with more upside.

If I could do something over, I would have picked in the middle of the draft. It would have made picking with the strategy I had much easier. However, I was to be travelling in central america for nearly the entire draft, and checking in twice a day would not be possible (or cost effective.) So I took the bookend slot, and hoped for the best. The good thing is, I have top waiver priority, and I intend to use it for the better!

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Sorry, I don't have the time to analyze the other teams. Internet cafes...

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The run on MI in the 2nd and 3rd rounds caught me off guard. I anticipated the closer run so I took two of the top 4 where they should have been taken, instead of stretching a round later(IMO).

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Well, knowing where some players were taken (MIs and Cs) I may have waited and taken them then and picked up some sluggers early. But alas, I could never know when they would go, and had I waited and missed out on them, I would end up with players that would hurt me in certain categories. Something that I don't have any of, and that is the theme of my draft.

It will be interesting to see how my strategy of taking well rounded players with very little risk will work out. I executed that strategy well last year, and finished with 129 points. The only error I made last year was with my SP. I have corrected that this year, and hope the results will vault me into the Rotoguru HOF! :)

Enjoy the season folks!
Matt S
8Toral
      ID: 152212521
      Sun, Mar 27, 2005, 20:26
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
After I learned my draft position, my plans were to secure a rotation anchor in the first two picks, as I found the lack of one deadly in RQL last year, to get a solid hitting 2B or SS, as the 2B/SS/MI positions are difficult to handle without one, not to neglect steals, and to look for best fitting talent otherwise. I was able to execute this with one crucial, mind-blowing mistake: Jeff Weaver at 9.14. I like Weaver this year, but I forgot the crucial principle that the guys I like more than the market aren't good picks if I pick them 3 or 4 rounds before they would otherwise go. (Well, Ben Sheets worked well for me last year, but Jeff Weaver is no Jeff Sheets.) In addition, Miguel Batista was on the board at that time and I knew he was closing, so not picking him was a major episode of brain deadness, which could be very costly indeed.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Like:
Nevin 11.14, Lugo 12.09, Burrell 14.03, Grudzielanek 25.14
Do-over:
Besides Weaver, Duchscherer and Bottalico (better set-up types were available).

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
The teams I like the look of most are those of rfs, Peter N., and ref. No obvious standouts or bombs.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The closer run caught me notoriously off guard. A few picks that indicate that some managers are willing to let someone sit on the bench for a long time before he can produce, whereas I use the bench actively and won't hold a slot for anybody except maybe Barry Bonds. Nothing else, really.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would get myself a different draft position, and put a post-it on my monitor saying "Don't pick Jeff Weaver too high." A big, bright post-it.


11Athletics Guy
      ID: 422542515
      Mon, Mar 28, 2005, 01:27
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My basic strategy was to concentrate mainly on hitters early in the draft. Position scarcity was a fairly minor factor in deciding which hitters I wanted to take. I just tried to draft the best player available and wait till the later rounds to fill my middle/corner infielder spots. I didn't plan on using my 2nd Round pick on a starting pitcher (Oswalt), but I felt I was getting good value on that pick. I didn't draft my second starter until the 10th round, so it seems I was able to stick with my strategy of saving pitching for the later rounds.

I also planned to stick with safe picks as I try to do in all of my drafts. By safe picks I mean I stay away from the unproven talent no matter how much upside they may have. I guess you can call me the "Anti-PeterN". I'll take those old predictable veterans any day (except for "Undrafted future AARP member" - even I wouldn't touch him). For the most part, my roster satisfies this requirement.

Where my draft strategy suffered the most was when I waited too long to select my MI/3B/CI positions. I was caught off guard by how quickly the talent pool was being thinned out. Then to make matters worse, I think I may have panicked and drafted some players a bit too early which is terrible since these guys (Eckstein and Wigginton) were at the bottom of the barrel for their positions.

Fortunately, my patience paid off when it came to starting pitchers. With pitching being so deep, I was confident I would get most of the pitchers I wanted without having to use my early picks. And I did for the most part.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite pick of the draft was Magglio Ordonez in round 7. His performance in Spring Training suggests that he may not be quite the risk that we all thought he'd be. Of course, anything can happen in the next couple months. So far, this pick is looking great.

Another pick that I really liked was Pedro Feliz at 12.03 (which I traded for). Before the news of Bonds' 2nd surgery, I already had high expectations for him this year. My only concern was the amount of playing time he would get. Well, I don't have to worry about that anymore! Barring injury, Feliz should get 500 AB's easily.

If only the Bonds news came earlier, I wouldn't have had to use a pick on Eckstein. I was afraid I might not have Feliz as a full-time SS, so I got him. I ended up missing out on one of my big sleepers: Mike Gonzalez (Thanks a lot KKB!) who I expect to have a bunch of K's and a lot saves. Oh well, things could have been worse. I could have ended up with Bonds(Thanks Guru!).

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Guru-I like teams stacked with good hitters and Guru's team certainly has a lot of big bats. Assuming Bonds does come back before the ASB, I see this team as a serious contender. Most of the starting pitchers are question marks, but they got a lot of potential. I believe Arroyo at round 17 and Ramirez at 21 will end up being nice bargains.

RFS-RFS's team is one of my favorites, since his team looks a lot like mine. He's got a solid group of hitters (especially the outfield), a couple questionable 3B's, a roster heavy on veterans, a rookie-free lineup and even a 25th round catcher. It looks like we had a similar plan going into the draft. But don't be fooled by this cheap imitation of a team. Mine is the real deal!

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
As I stated earlier, I was surprised by how quickly all the MI/CI players were being taken. I didn't know whether to wait and focus on the other stronger hitter positions first or to grab a MI/CI as soon as I had the opportunity. The MI run just kept going and going. I ended up drafting mediocre players (Crosby, Eckstein and Wigginton) to fill these spots even though it felt like I should have been taking them a round or 2 later. Looking at the draft results, other teams felt the felt the same pressure as well.

I was also surprised by PeterN's selections (aren't we all?) in the draft. I have never seen a manager draft like this in a non-keeper league. I know manager often like to take a chance on a young player with huge potential, but Peter has taken this to a whole new extreme. Peter, I admire your courage for taking so many risks. It's a shame half your team will crash and burn (and get demoted back to AAA) by July.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
If I could do something differently, it may have been to take a different draft spot. Being in the middle wasn't all bad. It did get me Abreu, Oswalt and Sheffield in the first 3 rounds - a solid trio. It also kept me from missing out on the closer run (actually I may have started it). But it made predicting picks so tough. Having to wait for 14-16 players to be drafted before every one of my turns took me out of my comfort zone. I was unable to get a good idea of who would be available on the next pick. If I drafted closer to the end, I may have done a better job dealing with issues like position scarcity or finding batters that complement each other better.
12Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 052347519
      Mon, Mar 28, 2005, 01:54
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My strategy is always pretty generic. The first four or five rounds I go for the best player available. Later I'll weigh in what my team's needs are both positionally and statistically. Because of the way the draft went, I ended up with a much stronger group of starting pitchers than I was planning on, but this was simply because I valued those players much higher than what else was available. One thing that I learned from last year was to wait on filling my outfield, and after Manny in the first round I didn't pick another OF until round 10.

I also wanted to try to keep the risky picks to a minimum. I did make a couple (Frank Thomas, T. Iguchi), but they were later in the draft. Instead I opted for more well-rounded players who are not necessarily 'flashy' (ie, Lew Ford, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Pena). These guys probably aren't valued too highly in standard roto leagues, but with the use of OBP and SLG I think they fell too far.

For the second year, I missed the closer run, and am starting the season with only a single closer. With all the solid players that were available when the questionable closers were being picked, I couldn't bring myself to pick up more than one. Despite this, I'm fairly happy with how my team ended up. I should be close to the top in the other pitching categories and should be competitive in hitting.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I like Ollie Perez with 3.10 and Huff with 4.07. The latest I've read from spring training makes me think Halladay in round 7 and Pineiro in 14 may end up being steals.

Looking back at the grid, I'm wondering if picking Brian Roberts in the 8th was a mistake. I was worried about not having any solid 2nd basemen and no speed and may have pulled the trigger a little too early. This would've been the pick to get a 2nd (3rd?) tier closer. Also, Frank Thomas may have been a waste depending on how long it takes him to make it back.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I'm almost afraid to say anything after saying AP10 was the team to beat in this year's RIHC... But, I like the makeup of A'sguy's team and Guru's (particularly when Bonds makes an early return).

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

nothing much; after a couple of these, I've learned that nobody slips through the cracks. The speed and extent of the closer run was a bit surprising.
One thing that I've found is that nothing prepares me for the upcoming season as these invitational slow drafts. It reminds me of school - trying to cram all my homework/research in as my pick approaches...

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I might have taken a closer look at Miguel Tejada with the 10th overall pick. I had really discounted him because of his low percentages (compared to the other top hitters), but this goes back to me looking for the best player available in the early rounds and not paying as much attention to position scarcity.
13darkside
      Dude
      ID: 3590317
      Mon, Mar 28, 2005, 09:01
What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Just as last year, I had no real strategy going into the draft. I didn't have any projections or any specific strategies I wanted to implement. I knew I wanted at least 2 good pitchers, 2 good closers, and a hitter in one of the first two rounds, but other than that I was just going to try to go after the best guys available. Having the first pick I knew I'd grab a big bat, and Pujols was what I came up with. Pitchers with my next two picks wasn't what I thought would happen, but I wanted a top pitcher and feel I got one w/ Zambrano and also was afraid of a closer run and wanted an elite one, so went ahead and took Lidge. The closer run forced me to take my second one with one of my next picks, so after that I had all of my 'plans' taken care of and just tried to fill the rest of my roster after that. I'm happy with the way my portion of the draft unfolded.

What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite: Sosa in the 6th, Mussina in the 7th, Klesko in the 14th and David Bell in the 24th. Obviously it's because I think all these guys could have a very good year and make them 'steals' where I got them. Time will tell if I was right.

Do over: Sean Casey in the 11th. There were still plent of good CI left and he's a question mark anyway. Should have gotten another OF here. Also, Spivey in the 19th. Although it's a low enough draft pick that it doesn't much matter, his injury news made me get another MI instead of a RP which is something I didn't want.

Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I think if Prior is an ace then RFS has a great team and if his old guys don't get hurt and some of them revert to previous form, then Speicies' team could be quite good. Although I like youngroman's pitching staff a whole lot....it'll be tough to beat him in SO's.

What surprised you most about the draft?

Unlike other's I wasn't surprised by the closer run (talk about position scarcity....) or the targeting of MI's. What did surprise me was the avoidance of taking pitchers early on. I do see the arguments that it's tougher to predict performance, injury, etc., and that there are a lot of good pitchers out there, but this was taking it to an extreme in my opinion. With half the points in pitching categories, basically ignoring it for the first half of the draft is brave indeed and a strategy that may work. Again, time will be the judge there. I do agree that it's easier to get a pitcher on the wire, but I definitely wanted 2 SP and 2 RP I felt good about and got that in Zambrano, Moose, Lidge and Hoffman, but had to use early picks for it.

If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Can't say there's anything I'd do over. I'm very happy with how things turned out and think I've got a very good shot at competing for the title, as I'm sure all of us do! Good luck to everyone!
14rockafellerskank
      Dude
      ID: 27652109
      Mon, Mar 28, 2005, 14:53
First real chance I've had to post in several days.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I planned to try to keep a balance of categories all the way through the draft. I had no intention or purposely planning for more or less of anything (IE hitting v pitching to punting SBs as examples). Also, in general, I went with vets. I saw a lot of rationales about upside potential, but those guys come with downside risk too.

I also like the flexibilty I was able to get with several guys qualifying at both MI and CI positions.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

i like Guillen at 10.13, Kearns at 12.13 and I like my entire SP staff -- all vets, Prior the only youngster. I think Guillen will be a top 15 OF'er this year.

Milligans? Graves too early and Erstad is likle to be cut as soon as opening day!

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

It's funnt, i've played with most everybody in the leage and even drafted side-by-side with half of them this Spring, so you kind of get to know tendancies.

Bonds hurts Guru, at least for now.
I like Toral's and AthleticsGuy's teams as they have a number of players I coveted.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Sori at #3 overall.
holt willing to deal early picks.
the number of rookies and/or non-vets selected.



5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Except for the 2 picks stated above, i like my draft. Maybe get one more MI in the mid rounds so I wasn't reaching for that slot.
15holt
      ID: 6227147
      Mon, Mar 28, 2005, 21:29
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I enjoy the drafting process, but I also don't like to make too much out of it. by the end of last season less than half of my original drafted players remained on my RIBC-QL team. projections and draft analysis are interesting but projected winners are as likely to finish middle-of-the-pack as anyone else. the importance of trades, FA's, and good management of daily roster moves play shouldn't be underestimated.

my draft strat:

- I never draft SP's early. it's just a basic rule to me. like in blackjack, don't hit when you have a winning hand. let someone else take the risk. I prefer to draft hitters and trade for a pitcher later if necessary.

- I didn't want to reach on any pick. that meant that I had to trade some picks to make sure I was taking my players at their proper spot in the draft. when I end up on the back-end of a draft it's pretty much automatic that I'll trade my first picks away. IMO after the first few picks of a draft the talent level drops off and stays even for a round or two, so I figure late 2nd/early 3rd picks are just as useful to me as late 1st rd/early 2nd rd picks.
not reaching also meant that I had to let most of the MI's that I wanted pass me by. even though I'd like to have more talent there, I think a lot of them were drafted too early and I think I got better value by letting them go.

- before the draft started I highlighted the names of players I felt would have good years and would be under-valued by others. I kept an eye on other drafts to get a feel for what rounds they would go in, and the two trades I made helped me get them lined up right.



2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I'm probably like everyone else in that I like most of my picks.

- I took a chance that Ortiz or Thome would be available late 2nd rd. Thome did drop to 2.13 so that pick worked out well.

- very happy having M.Giles on my roster. I think he's the best 2b in the draft - even over Soriano.

- other picks I really like are beltre in the 3rd, hafner and drew in the 5th, mauer in the 7th, Carpenter in the 8th, Rowand, Gonzo, L.Walker. hell - like I said - I like most of my picks. wouldn't have made them otherwise.

which picks would I do over? hard to say exactly. I think I could have worked it out so that K.Brown and Feliz were on my roster, but no big deal. there were a lot of tough decisions throughout the draft. I also should have Biggio in the 19th rd. oh well.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I can't pick any favorites. I see some I like and some I don't but every team has its own strengths and weaknesses.

darkside - nice pitching staff, but a lot of hitters I wouldn't personally feel comfortable with.

peterN - pitching staff looks pretty good, but huge risks with his hitters. those MI's and OF's would have me worried.

KKB - I like Furcal (but I think the 2nd rd was way too early), and Biggio is a nice late pick, but the rest of the hitters and most of the pitching staff are just players that I wouldn't personally go after in a draft.

RFS - nice OF (some depth issues though). nomar and prior are nice, but the rest of the roster keeps me from choosing this team as a personal favorite.

BMD - the pitching looks solid enough to get the job done, and I like a lot of the hitters. there are definitely depth issues at CI, MI, and OF though.

Chris - I like the selection of players at IF, C, and SP. looks like it was at the cost of his OF and relievers, but you can't be strong at every position. if he comes up with some closers or fortifies his OF I think this team could be trouble.


Guru - the hitting on this team looks solid and balanced, but who knows how long Bonds will be out. I like the SP strat but guru is gonna need to juggle them just right (along with getting full seasons from 2 injury-prone closers) if he wants to score high in the pitching categories. with some help from Bonds and a little magic from his pitching staff, I could see Guru winning this thing, but as things stand I can't pick him as a favorite.

A's guy - solid pitching and nice OF. some question marks at all the IF spots and at C. I could see this team finishing anywhere from 1st to middle-of-the-pack.

jumpball - great hitters at C and all the IF positions, but there's definitely a depth issue at OF. JuanGone and Griffey? Someone call an ambulance. still - this team should finish high in the hitting categories (except SB's). like guru (and me), some magic is going to be needed with that pitching staff.

slackjaw yokel - this team looks well balanced. the most glaring weaknesses I see are MI depth and the fact that his only closer is BJ ryan. nice core of a team though. the SP's look pretty strong.

youngroman - this team's hitting should be ok and the SP's are great. the question is, will YR punt the saves category and if so, how costly will that be? looks like a competitive team though.

ref - pretty good collection of hitters. just have to see what he can squeeze out of that pitching staff.

species - there are so many question marks. giambi, boone, ensberg, wilson - who knows? and then SP's like schmidt and wood. I can't even guess how this team will do.

toral - This team has a little bit of everything. nice looking team - except for having Looper as the only closer. should finish pretty high though.

MattS - I don't see any weaknesses anywhere but not any great strengths either. pretty balanced team. managed to put together a decent SP staff with late draft picks. my gut tells me this team is middle-of-the-pack but I could see a high finish if everything comes together right.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

the run on middle relievers started a lot earlier than I expected. a lot of MI's were drafted earlier than I thought they should have been. also, the picks of furcal in the 2nd and VMartinez in the 3rd both surprised me.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

not much. I would have taken K.Brown with my 13.15 instead of Morris, and I probably still would have been able to get Morris and Wolf.

I also would have taken Biggio in the 19th instead of Calero, and just hope that Calero would slip another round or two.

16Species
      Leader
      ID: 07724916
      Tue, Mar 29, 2005, 11:56
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I am a draft generalist. I have a basic guideline of what I'd like to do, but in general I like getting good value in my picks. I use a pair of projections and some cheatsheets as guidelines but they are far from gospel when it comes to making my picks.

I did have a general idea of being strong up the middle again this year with strong OPS guys that allow me to fill in around them with solid players. Did it work?

HELL NO. MI's flew off the board like they were being declared illegal.....SIX shortstops by pick 3.07?!? Wow. By the time my 3rd rounder came up, it seemed like my early round draft strategy was completely poop-screwed, so I totally went a different direction and I believe I will pay for it. dearly.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorites were Matsui (5.13), Mueller (2b-eligible, 13.13), P. Wilson (14.04) and late round SP's Robertson (21.13) and Padilla (22.14).

Do-overs: In hindsight Crawford was probably not best for my team, especially as I shifted my focus in round 3. I actually tried to trade Crawford to jumpball for Rolen prior to jumpball's round 4 pick (when Aramis was still available, so he could replace Rolen's numbers with VERY near 3b numbers and get Crawford) but he didn't bite. I went on Tilt in round 3 and instead of 'reaching' for CI's or OF's that were grouped together, I said "F it" and took pitching in round 4 instead (the K-Rod pick was fine, but I shouldn't have taken Wood in round 4).

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

If not for the closer situation, I like Slack's team - very well balanced. I adore Athletics Guy's OF, and Livan Hernandez was an absolute steal (I nearly took him over Greinke in round 9), but he needs Webb to be the 2003 Webb or he's hurting. If ref's rotation comes through, and that's some big IF's with Penny and Lowe, he could do VERY well.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

The over-valuation of MI. I actually considered MI fairly deep this year, but SIX SS' through 39 picks? Madness! The other thing is I guess I overvalue SP because I thought there would be more of a run on SP after my round 4 SP pick (thinking "THAT will teach 'em...if they're going MI/CI crazy, let 'em try to keep up with me in SP!).....but the SP run never really happened and I got left in the dust offensively.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Yeah. Tons.

Basically my stubbornness in not wanting to take someone in a group of basically similar players, and thus taking someone I thought stood out from the crowd in a different position/area I think cost me. This caused me mid-draft to almost consider dumping SLG/RBI but instead to go for a very risky 'steroid strategy' -- and take former juicers (or accused juicers) like Giambi and Boone to try to make up for missing the stud CI and OF's that are the cornerstones of your primary categories like SLG and RBI. It's not good to be approaching your 5th round pick and see guys like bmd with Delgado/Chavez/Beltran or AG with Abreu/Sheff/D. Lee and the only offensive player you have is a low SLG/low RBI guy like Crawford on your team.

My team is aptly named "the big IF". IF Giambi comes within 15% of pre-2004 form. IF P. Wilson plays 140+ games and doesn't leave Coors. IF Bret Boone has a .850+ OPS. IF, if if.....
17beastiemiked
      ID: 262411016
      Tue, Mar 29, 2005, 20:28
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I didn't have much of a strategy. I think if you go into a draft like this with a strategy and stick with it, you'll end up in trouble. I got burned last year by drafting only 1 closer so I wanted to secure at least 2 decent closers. Other than that, I'm usually the "best available" kind of drafter.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorites:
Lance Berkman (7.05)
Carl Pavano (11.05)
Latroy Hawkins (14.12)
John Thomson (16.12)
Jeromy Burnitz (17.05)

Do Overs:
Nick Johnson (12.12)
Brandon Inge (13.05)

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Every team looks solid. I'd have to take a deeper look to really pick a favorite.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?


The number of middle infielders taken in the early rounds of the draft.
Rookies being drafted before they should've. PeterN and Chris jumped the gun on a lot of the youngsters they picked.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I would make a longer queue for the later rounds. I was hoping to check in on my vacation but there was no Internet access to be found.






18jumpball
      Sustainer
      ID: 33050298
      Wed, Mar 30, 2005, 22:48
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

First, I wanted 2 hitters in the first 2 rounds. While I finished in the top half last year drafting Pedro and Kerry in rounds 1 and 2, I certainly didn't finish up there because of them.
Next I wanted to focus on filling the scarce positions of MI and RP without reaching too much. If I only had 1 SP and 1 OF after round 12, it wouldn't have bothered me in the least. I focused on players that had no major injury history (well, until I couldn't stand it any longer when Griffey (round 16) and Juan Gone (round 23) were available in the late rounds!) and put up good percentages. I didn't find a guy to get me steals unless Clark (round 19) gets more than expected.

I passed on Tejada in the first round in order to get Helton. Helton's percentages won out in a tough decision with Tejada's position scarcity. I might regret that choice. Getting a closer in round 3 was a good choice for my strategy. I feel like I executed well, except that I might have done better with Wagner in round 4 (because i wouldn't have Mesa on my team! :-))

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favs:
--Drafting a closer in round 3 (Mariano). Should I have picked K-Rod instead? Maybe, but I went with the experience.
--Getting Utley in round 10. I like his potential and being 1B and 2B eligible is a bonus. I might have gotten him a round or 2 later, but i didn't take that chance this time.
--Getting Gordon and Rincon in rounds 14 & 15.

Do Overs:
--Probably the 4th rounder -- taking Wagner over Beckett.
--Vernon Wells was not a bad pick in round 7, but in hindsight, i wish i had picked Halladay there.
--Taking Mesa in round 9 instead of a starter (Zito or Greinke)
--I didn;t think the injury to C.C.Sabathia (round 12) was serious enough to land him on the DL. In retrospect, Willis, Casey Blake, or Lane would have been better picks.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I started looking at teams in draft order, and by the time I got to mine (9th), I had 8 names on the list of teams that i liked!! What that tells me is that every team is either balanced or has strong points that are very solid.
Guru has one of the best hitting teams (assuming Bonds plays at least half a season), SY and yr have solid starters, and MattS and darkside probably have the best bullpens. This should be a very balanced league!

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

--holt's trade offers
--the lack of RPs available when i wanted to draft my second one in round 5
--how early the rookies were drafted


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

See the do-over list above.
I'd rather have Wagner, Halladay, Zito, & C.Blake instead of Beckett, V.Wells, Mesa, & CC.


Random comments:
My OF with Griffey and Juan Gone is highly suspect, I agree. My hope is that I can get good stats from them and then can find replacements when they inevitably go down with their injuries. I also have an extra MI to use in a trade when someone loses one of those to injury (Species, PeterN, you listening? :-))
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