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Subject: Best Pitcher Ever (hint: not Nolan Ryan)
Posted by: blue hen
- Leader [710321114] Tue, Oct 11, 2005, 11:14
Top Pitchers In Adjusted ERA+ from Baseball Reference
Yesterday, I claimed that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher of All-Time. A discussion of who else was up there ensued. The name Nolan Ryan came up, and much as Sludge will hate to admit it, he has no place in this discussion. There are good arguments for Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, and perhaps even Greg Maddux. Plus all the old guys - I think I put Walter Johnson at the head of that list. And what about our fathers' aces? Gibson, Koufax, Seaver, Carlton?
My vote is for Clemens. Longevity, great seasons, and great moments. There are very few areas where he falls short. |
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| 154 | Perm Dude
ID: 11136178
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 12:40
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You misread my post, hen. When a guy throws a shutout, by definition he gave up no runs. Perhaps in your rush to dismiss Ryan you threw away the wrong stat, I dunno.
On the other matter, is isn't comparable at all. There exists no evidence that Ryan used any PEDs. There now exists a lot of evidence that Clemens did. What Clemens did or did not do while on PEDs is moot.
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| 155 | Tree
ID: 3533298
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 13:05
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Ryan was a better strikeout pitcher. Clemens was a better run-preventing pitcher. Guess what - it's possible to lose a game with 27 strikeouts. It's impossible to lose a game where you give up no runs.
Ryan had 15 more shut outs. he allowed 42 less home runs. his ERA was .07 higher, and his WHIP was .07 higher.
are you really going to continue with that argument that Clemens was better at preventing runs? looks pretty similar to me, and quite frankly, i'd still give the nod to Ryan.
additionally, you're absolutely wrong about it being impossible to lose a game when you allow zero runs. there have been a nearly uncountable amount of games where the starting pitcher allowed zero runs, and his team still lost.
i'm purposely leaving out the PED argument for now, because if you include that argument, there isn't even a conversation to be had here.
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| 156 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 454491514
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 13:23
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Tree you're not considering the difference in the eras in which they pitched. Ryan played the bulk of his career in the most pitcher-friendly era since the time of the dead ball. The bulk of Clemens' carrer was in the most hitter-friendly era in history. Taking that into consideration, differences of .07 in WHIP and ERA are quite significant.
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| 157 | Khahan
ID: 561119313
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 13:28
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I've never heard anything to suggest Ryan used any drugs, but the truth is he pitched in an era when uppers were so common place you'd think they were league issued.
Players for decades have found different ways to cope with the long season. The drug of choice has changed and there are additional benefits, but people need to stop acting like this is the first drug era of baseball.
Compare the pitchers for what they did on the mound.
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| 158 | Perm Dude
ID: 11136178
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 13:32
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MITH: If Clemens to PEDs it doesn't matter.
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| 159 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 14:12
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Clemens faced players who were doping and dominated them. Does he get any credit for that?
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| 160 | Tree
ID: 3533298
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 14:15
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Tree you're not considering the difference in the eras in which they pitched.
that's just not relevant to me. you can flip that around and say "boy, Ryan played from some crappy teams..."
seriously - if that's the argument you go with, then ever hitter ever is a wimp compared to Babe Ruth.
Clemens faced players who were doping and dominated them. Does he get any credit for that?
is that really what it's come to?
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| 161 | Perm Dude
ID: 11136178
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 14:37
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#159: If he was on PEDs, nope. The Clemens argument is now reduced to: "Yeah, I cheated. But didn't I do well while cheating?"
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| 162 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 14:43
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Crappy teams? Does that affect a pitcher anywhere other than in the wins and losses? And didn't we just totally discount those? That's totally different than playing in a hitters' era vs. a pitchers' era.
And yes, it matters a lot to me that Clemens faced batters who doped. And Ruth didn't face black players. There's a lot of context here, and just about all of it paints a pretty great picture of Clemens.
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| 163 | Perm Dude
ID: 11136178
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 14:48
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It would look like a great picture if Clemens wasn't juiced.
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| 164 | Pancho Villa
ID: 47161721
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 15:00
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And Ruth didn't face black players.
Or Cubans or Dominicans or Panamanians or Venezuelans or Japanese or Koreans.
One can certainly make the point that today's game features the best players in the world from a much bigger pool.
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| 165 | Razor
ID: 221145821
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 20:19
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One can certainly make the point that today's game features the best players in the world from a much bigger pool.
Sorta. The talent pool might be more diverse internationally, but domestically, there are relatively far fewer Americans trying to make it as baseball players now than there were in the old days when baseball was the only major sports league around.
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| 166 | holt
ID: 129202215
Mon, Dec 17, 2007, 20:28
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getting off topic, but fwiw, baseball now faces more competition from other sports in getting the attention of young athletes. baseball used to be THE game in the US. semi-pro clubs could be found virtually everywhere. kids dreamed of being major leaguers, not football/basketball/guitar/poker/playstation players.
It's easy to downplay the abilities of earlier generations, but really, there was a significant number of players busting their asses to break into the big leagues, and there weren't very many big league roster spots available.
If Rogers Hornsby was dropped back on earth to play just one season, I think he'd still be the best secondbaseman around. He lived and breathed baseball. The guy refused to read or watch movies because he wanted to preserve his "batting eye". Drop someone like Brian Roberts back into 1925 and see how he handles the train rides, small paychecks, spit balls, lack of "supplements", and crappy equipment. My guess is that Hornsby would still be a great player in today's baseball, and Brian Roberts would not put up Hornsby'ish stats.
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| 167 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Wed, Dec 19, 2007, 15:09
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Posts 62 and 90. No wonder Ref hated me.
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| 168 | TacoJohn
ID: 590291817
Fri, Feb 01, 2008, 14:45
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I realize it's just 3 games but the '05 series alone seems like almost enough reason to give the nod to Mathewson. Offenses were a lot weaker then, but that still has to be one of the greatest accomplishments in the history of baseball.
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| 169 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Fri, Feb 01, 2008, 15:08
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I know it's just one game, but Kerry Wood gave up one infield hit with 20 strikeouts.
Give it up. It's all about sample size there.
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| 170 | TacoJohn
ID: 590291817
Fri, Feb 01, 2008, 16:19
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BH, perhaps I misunderstood the intent of this thread.
I was under the impression that we were including some component of "most accomplished" along with most talented. In most sports discussions both are included. If this is purely a question of most talented then I agree that Mathewson is not #1 (though he's still very high up on the list).
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| 171 | TacoJohn
ID: 590291817
Fri, Feb 01, 2008, 16:20
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Also, even if you were assuming I was talking only about pure talent (a really dense assumption) the Kerry Wood comparison still sucks.
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| 172 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Mon, Feb 04, 2008, 10:11
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For Mathewson, three games is NOT accomplishment. He's in this discussion for other reasons, but one particular World Series doesn't carry a lot of weight with me.
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| 173 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Thu, Feb 07, 2008, 10:06
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The Rangers are going to be better in 2008 than 2007. Nolan Ryan was just named Team President.
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| 174 | Stuck in the 60s
ID: 281511218
Tue, Feb 12, 2008, 20:08
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The trouble with this argument is that it rests on stats. So, because of his relatively short career, Koufax is dissed. But on the day he retired because of a sore arm, Roberto Clemente said "he couldn't possibly be pitching with a sore arm."
There should be a place for Koufax in the top 10, because no one who ever hit against him wanted to do it again!
Don
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| 175 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Tue, Feb 12, 2008, 22:31
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Stuck, while I have to acknowledge your argument as a strong point for Koufax, the matter still remains that this thread is to discuss the best pitcher ever. There have been a lot of pitchers who were the 'best in their league' or 'best of their era,' over the years. And the reason Koufax falls short in this debate is because those guys did what Koufax did PLUS they continued to pitch and compile very impressive career stats.
I think longevity is a very relevant issue when it comes to this dicussion and that is where Koufax falls a bit short. Can't argue with him at his peak. But on the whole of his career, there were more impressive.
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| 176 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Wed, Feb 13, 2008, 14:23
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Koufax DOES have a place in this discussion. But he falls short of most of the others because his career was VERY short.
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| 180 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Thu, Aug 19, 2010, 20:48
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time to revisit this, no?
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| 181 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 10:27
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I still prefer Clemens over Ryan.
I've been pondering this question a lot, and I think it comes down to Pedro and Grove. There are some other strong cases, but I can't make a great case to put anyone ahead of those two.
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| 182 | Razor
ID: 57854118
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 10:49
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Pedro Martinez pitched 2,800 innings. Greg Maddux pitched 5,000 innings. 2,200 league average innings would drag down Pedro's ERA+ quite a bit.
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| 183 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 12:21
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To what?
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| 184 | Razor
ID: 57854118
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 12:33
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To worse than Maddux's. And league average is generous. PT matters, dude.
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| 185 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 12:44
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I agree. Take pretty much any very good pitcher's first 2200 innings only and they'll look pretty good.
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| 186 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 13:39
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Wait a minute. Pedro pitched 2800 innings, not 2200. And Pedro is 20 points ahead in ERA+. That's a long way for him to have to fall. For context, 20 points below Maddux you would find Josh Beckett, Bartolo Colon, Orel Hershiser, and Juan Guzman. I can't subscribe to the idea that Pedro would fall that much with "league average" innings.
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| 187 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 14:48
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We don't really have to guess, here. Look at the last 4 seasons Pedro pitched. There's no reason to think he would continue anything other than what he did those last 4 years, which show a very good but no longer overwhelming pitcher.
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| 188 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 15:29
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ERA+ is figured by taking the "League Average ERA" during that players playing time and dividing it by the players ERA. You take that number and multiply by 100.
During Pedro's playing career the "League Average ERA" was 4.51 based on some tricky math formula I just tried to explain. If you give him 2200 IPs so that he reaches the 5k mark Maddux pitched he would have had a 3.62 career ERA. After doing the math it would work out to an ERA+ of 125.
Now Lefty Grove only pitched 3900 IPs. Back in his day the "League Average ERA" was 4.53. If you give him another 1100 IPs to hit Maddux's 5k then you get a 3.37 career ERA and a ERA+ of 134
Maddux clearly stays the same with 5000 IPs. 3.16 career ERA and ERA+ of 132
I think this math exercise clearly shows how dominate Walter Johnson's 147 ERA+ is over the span of 5914 IP and proves that he is truly the greatest pitcher of all time.
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| 189 | Razor
ID: 265539
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 15:31
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People, we had this thing wrapped up in post #1.
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| 190 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Fri, Aug 20, 2010, 15:32
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Also if you want to quibble over those numbers look at Pedro's final 4 seasons and see he had a 4.58 ERA over 350 IPs. Giving him 4.51 for another 2200 IPs is actually being kind to him.
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| 191 | Ryan Express
ID: 2892911
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 02:30
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The fact is that Clemens has 150 plus wins after he was accused of doping. I don't argue that he was playing against other players that were or were not doping but if he doesn't dope exactly how long does clemens career last. Most of the players seem to have doped to give them the ability to recover which put you on the field on a more frequent basis. I.E Andy Petite's reason for taking them. I was always a Clemens fan, he has a lot of the same qualities that made Nolan Ryan the great that he is, but I have to admit when the alligations came out it tarnishes his career statitics to me. Nolan Ryan to me should not only be on that list be he should always be somewhere a top that list.
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| 192 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 10:21
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Then I guess your opinion is wrong.
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| 193 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 11:46
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he has a lot of the same qualities that made Nolan Ryan the great that he is,
Oh, you are right there, in ways you probably haven't imagined yet...
but I have to admit when the allegations came out it tarnishes his career statistics to me.
Does Nolan remain at the top when HE is alleged to have done much the same as Clemens?
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| 194 | Mötley Crüe
ID: 108312919
Wed, Oct 06, 2010, 20:11
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Roy Halladay did something today that has never happened during most of our lives.
Throw in the perfect game during the regular season and the guy at least has to be in the conversation. Maybe the best pitcher of the 2000's anyway.
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| 195 | C1-NRB
ID: 401412422
Wed, Oct 06, 2010, 23:03
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Satchel Paige.
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| 196 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Thu, Oct 07, 2010, 01:31
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C1-NRB, you don't have time to post here, go scout!
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| 197 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Thu, Oct 07, 2010, 09:17
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194 Motley. halladay may well be on his way, but he still has quite a few years left in him. At some point we very well could be discussing him for all time.
As for best pitcher of the 2000's, so far I'd have to agree.
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| 198 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Oct 07, 2010, 09:34
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Dallas Braden? Don't judge a book by one game.
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| 199 | loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Thu, Oct 14x, 2010, 13:06
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On 10/14/1965 pitching with 2 days rest Sandy Koufax threw a 3 hit shutout vs. the Minnesota Twins to win the "65 World Series. In my opinion he was the best pitcher in baseball but frequently is excluded from discussion because of his injury shortened career.
Having said that, Christy Matthewson pitched his 3rd shutout vs. the Philadelphia Athletics to win the 1905 Worlds Series , also on 10/14. He pitched with one day's rest.
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| 200 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Thu, Oct 14x, 2010, 13:50
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Koufax = greatness
Career Stats for the Left Arm of God
It's no wonder his career ended so abruptly. 54 CG's in his last two seasons (and that doesn't include post-season action). I'd bet that Jesse James treated his horses with more care than the Dodgers did with Koufax.
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| 201 | loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Thu, Oct 14x, 2010, 14:29
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Koufax was great, but he had to be the worst hitter that I have ever seen. He looked like he would injure himself ever time he swung the bat but he did manage to hit 2 HRs in his career. One was a 3 run HR, but he ended up losing that game.
If you are a Koufax fan or would just like to read a good baseball book, I would recommend Sandy Koufax: A Lefty's Legacy by Jane Leavy. Leavy also wrote the recently published The Last Boy: Mickey Mantle and the End of America's Childhood.
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| 202 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Thu, Oct 14x, 2010, 19:31
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Oddly enough, my Dad (who is a huge Mantle and Koufax fan) interviewed several close relatives, friends, and teammates of Mantle (David Mantle, Jim Richardson, Max Mantle, Benny Lee, a couple of guys, can't recall their names atm, who along with Mickey were known as the three musketeers, a few others I can't recall atm. I edited the interviews together onto a couple DVD's, and I am almost positive that Jane Leavy bought one of those copies. I remember we had to send it twice because the first copy was in the wrong format, and it was a Washington, D.C. address. I'd have to do a little research to make sure it was her, but I'll definitely read the book.
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| 203 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Thu, Oct 14x, 2010, 19:43
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btw - one of the "three musketeers" went to MIT, iirc. He might be mentioned in the book somewhere.
Sorry for the thread hijack.
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| 204 | loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sat, Oct 16, 2010, 22:01
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Re: 202-Your Dad could not be a greater Koufax fan than me. I think that he and you will like this link. Vin Scully announcing the 9th inning of Koufax's perfect game.
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| 205 | Razor
ID: 57854118
Sat, Oct 16, 2010, 23:34
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Halladay is doing something that is pretty rare, I think - he is both the most accomplished pitcher in terms of career accomplishments and simultaneously the best pitcher in the game today.
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| 206 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Sun, Oct 17, 2010, 22:14
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re 204 - that's awesome - thanks. Didn't know he threw no-hitters in 4 consecutive years. Scully's explanation at the end was pretty interesting too (regarding why he kept stating the date and time).
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