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0 Subject: RIBC 2006 - Draft Rationales (rounds 6-10)

Posted by: JeffG
- Leader [01584348] Tue, Mar 14, 2006, 22:30

Continuing for the next five rounds.

Rationales for rounds 1-5
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30Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 18:47
7.14 Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B?/OF, TB

Vernon Wells stands out as the best player on the board to me right now, with about 6 SP around him. The next best 1B I see on the board play are not very exciting, I want a player with upside. Tampa may suck again this year, but it won't be for a lack of offense. Huff is slated to bat clean up and move over to 3rd. Yet another year I am hoping for him to remain static in a fielding position so that he can focus on hitting. The multiple eligibility is nice in a league that will go deep as is the chance that he could get shipped to a contender since he is in his final year of his TB contract.
31Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 20:24
for Hubble

7.15 Ryan Dempster, RP, CHC
Before the draft, i wanted to take 3 closers before taking SP, i thought i would take the 3rd one right about here. Well, this is my 2nd and i missed on Jenks (the last closer worthy of this name IMHO)... So i finnaly took Dempster... and i have not much to say about it... except that there is good potential in this pick, he could have a good year if Chicago SPs stay away of the IL. Anywhere above 30 SV and 70 K would be terrific...
32Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 20:26
Placeholder for CanEHdian Pride

7.16 Brett Myers, SP, PHI
I wanted to pair Willis w/ another young, hard-throwing workhorse. Myers fit that bill. Myers piled up K's last season while decreasing his BB rate significantly. After two season of mediocrity it is clear that Myers raised his game to the next level and showed his durability by topping the 200 IP and 200 K mark. I considered trading up to take a shot at Mark Buehrle however seeing that Colon, Hudson, Myers and Beckett were all still available midway through the 6th round I decided to hold off and hope that Myers slid while the rest of the names were picked up. I believe Myers will outperform all the aforementioned picks this year and...get ready to log cEHp's first ludicrous prediction of 2006.....take home the Cy Young Award when all the dust settles.
33Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 20:26
Placeholder for CanEHdian Pride

8.01 Todd Jones, RP, DET

I reluctantly took Jones w/ this pick after Hubble snatched Ryan Dempster from under my nose. I think Dempster will have a fine season and was a huge value at this point. Jones should put up some saves and hopefully "Rollercoaster" won't return to Detroit now that he has some roomier dimensions to work with. I think Jones will be very happy to be back in Detroit as he spoke very highly of the organization upon leaving via trade 2000 and hopefully this level of comfort will help keep his numbers closer to where they were last year as opposed to reverting to those of the year he left. I needed a closer as I expected a mini scavenger run to be close at hand. There wouldn't be much left once I was on the clock again so I decided to ensure that I had 2 bona fide closers by this point in the draft. Considered Wickman but I think he will fall victim to injury or (either sports or Big Mac related) before the season is through.
34Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 20:27
for Chris
8.02 Bob Wickman, RP, CLE
Once again, I traded down to take a closer(though technically I traded down to 8.05), and tried to improve my draft position elsewhere. I was hoping Gonzalez, Jenks or Wickman fell to me at this spot, and though I value Wickman less than the other two, I still feel Wickman is a solid closer who will tack on some saves for me.
35Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 20:28
8.03 Vernon Wells, SP, LAA

I didn't think Wells would make it back to me when I sent my queue out. I now have mixed feelings about getting him. In the 4 picks after I selected Huff, 3 relievers were taken. I would have been tempted to jump on the run but do feel that Wells was an extreme value pick at this point in the draft. I would have been tempted as well to go to the second person in my queue, John Lackey. Entering the season at 27, hopefully Wells can attempt to return to his 2003 breakout year with a much stronger lineup around him.
36TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:39
for Blue Hen
8.04 Luis Castillo 2B MIN
Just what a guy losing his speed needs - a trade to play in the Metrodome! But seriously, Castillo had a very good year at the bat last year (.391 OBP is sensational) and finally escapes from the hitter hell of Dolphins Stadium. The Twins have had some terrible middle infielders of late, and I think their fans are going to love Castillo. He only stole 10 bases last year, but if he can start running more, I think I can filch some steals out of this spot.
37TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:40
for Chris
8.05 Bobby Crosby SS OAK
I think Crosby compliments my other middle infielders well. While Reyes and Weeks will steal some bases, Crosby should continue to improve his OPS if healthy. I'm thinking he should be in the 825-850 range. I like the lineup that he is in, so I'm hopeful that his counting stats will help me out even from a position as thin as MI.
38TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:40
for jumpball
8.06 Pat Burrell, OF, PHI
I took a look at the remaining closers (only Ray and Fuentes seemed to be decent picks) and counted the number of teams that already had 2 closers (there were EIGHT) and figured it wasn't worth it to draft one marginal closer and then scramble around during the season in order to try to get 3 or 4 points out of the saves category. Instead of that, I'll get another hitter that should help me gain a point or two in each of 4 hitting categories. I first looked at C, but decided that could wait a little longer. Then I looked at infielders and didn't find anyone that wasn't likely to make it back to me (I might have taken Crosby if AG hadn't snatched him up a couple of picks ago). Heading out of the infield, I couldn't help but notice Burrell and [Undrafted].

I like the way that Burrell has improved since his dismal 2003 season. I expect that improvement will continue. A year with 90/120 and a .900 OPS is attainable. If he comes close to that, I'm getting great value with the 8th pick.

39TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:41
for IAC
8.07 Brian Fuentes RP COL

Following in the footsteps of last year, I'm going with a 3 closer strategy. With only 30 closers to pick from and me getting 3 of the projected closers pretty much ensures me 100 saves, and in turn about 14 or so points from the Saves CAT. Fuentes pitches his home games @ Coors, but he's got good enough stuff to get the job done. I think he's more likely to keep his job all year, which is more than I can say of most of the "questionable" closers still available.

40TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:41
for Dave R
8.08 Chris Ray RP BAL
8.08 Chris Ray RP Balt

The well was running dry on closers and Ray should have that job for the Orioles. He throws gas and last year in 40.3 innings K'd 43 batters, with a 2.66 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He dominated as a closer in AA before making the jump to the majors.

I'm hoping for 35 saves or more from him

41TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:43
8.09 Javy Lopez, C, BAL

I think MC is going to post the rationale for this pick, but I will toss in some filler until he sends it to me. We have two Astro's and two Yankees, so it's about time to add our 2nd Oriole. We hadn't talked about the catcher position much and I figured we would probably ignore it until the 17th or so round like we did last year and luck into a decent player. Nobody else stood out in this spot so it seemed like a good idea to try and get one of the better players at this position.
42JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 15, 2006, 23:54
8.10 Chad Orvella RP TB
A reach but for the first time this draft, I forced a pick. After my last pick, I started the queue for this round with my eye on Javy Lopez if he made it back to me, a decent second closer or my first MI. But since my last pick was made, 8 closers were taken by 7 of the 10 managers who had at least one selection. The well is starting to run dry on the saves category. Javy also became moot when he was selected right before this pick, but even if he was left, Fuentes, Ray and Orvella in that order hopped over him on my queue. I already have a B closer in Turnbow and now we are on the C's. Yes, there are still a few left, but I did not want to start the season with just one starting closer on staff. I did not think he may have returned and did not want to have the choice of picking one of the two I have on my cheat sheet under a column that uses the phraze '10 foot pole' (Foulk and MacDougal). Who knows who will be available on the return. So Ovella in my opinion was the best of the rest. The Rays closers job is his to lose so he needs to come out of the gates strong in the few saves opportunities Tampa even gets. Can an 8th round pick be called a 'sleeper'?
44Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 08:31
8.11 Mark Loretta, 2B, Bos

I wanted to take a 3rd closer here, but they have really been flying off the board in the last round! The only tempting closer left is Foulke, and I just couldn’t get comfortable with the risk. If I needed a second closer, I might have sucked it up and taken him, but I don’t think the risk is warranted for a 3rd closer. There are other slots to work on.

Like second base. Here’s hoping that Fenway Park agrees with Loretta. I don’t expect “monster” improvement, although he should be able to significantly improve on last year’s .347 slugging average. He should get plenty of opps to score in the Boston lineup, and his OBA has always been solid. He should be fine at 2B.
45Hubble
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 09:02
8.12 Curt Schilling, SP, BOS

Although i'm not really keen on getting SP before 10th round, i had Mr. Schilling stiking out like a sore thumb. It already my 3rd pick conseider as low risk/high reward type--of-guy (Beltran+Schmidt being the other 2) These are 3 guys that use to go 1st round... Now i got Schilling in late 8th round... for a reason i know. Staying away from a guy who posted a 5.69 ERA, 1.53 WHIP last year, is really wise from a stand point. On the other hand... the previous season, he managed 21W, 203K, 3.26ERA, 1.06 WHIP at the age of 37. Now 39, Schilling is still a nasty pitching machine, and i'm hoping he will bounce back from last year. He's learning (at 39!) to throw inside, and that should give a little more to think about for the hitters. I'm not hoping for miracle here, something around 15W, 200K, 3.50ERA, 1.30 WHIP.
46mMoses
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 09:02
8.13 Keith Foulke, RP, BOS
I really wanted Dempster or Ray with this pick... I think this pick may be the product of panic. However, on the brighter side of my regrets, Keith says he feels stronger now than he has in four years. In 2003 he had 43 saves with a .888 WHIP, in 2004 he had 32 saves with a .940 WHIP. If he's really feeling stronger than those, at least I have some hope. Even 30 saves with a 1.30 WHIP would be more pleasant than a re-injury.
47KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 09:03
8.14 Nick Johnson, 1B, WAS
I was again targeting a hitter with this pick. I had a number of options I was debating about, but Johnson's numbers looked too good to pass up. My projections are a very slight increase over last year's stats, which would suit me just fine. I think Johnson suffers a bit from the stigma of playing home games at RFK, but an .887 OPS still looks good to me for my CI slot. Rotowire actually has him projected up to a .927 OPS and given that he's in his prime right now, it's not a stretch. Still, I made this pick based on an .885 OPS and would be perfectly happy with just that. I like the WAS lineup (yeah, it's a bit of a homer perspective) this year and think Johnson's great OBP will only help him to do even better this year.
48Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 09:07
for Toral
8.15 Adrian Beltre, 3B, Sea
I decided I needed to use these 2 sandwich picks on a 3Bman and a shortstop.

It seems like I've been saying "I expect Adrian Beltre to step us this year" for as long as I've been playing fantasy baseball. Except for his one monster year, of course, when I didn't have him. Getting to the bottom of a tier of third basemen it was time to step up and make a choice. Subjectively, I don't expect anything much from Beltre this year. Objectively, monster fluke seasons like Beltre's 04 that are never followed up are quite rare and at 26, Beltre's a good bet to be worth something this year. .330/.450 won't kill me, and he could well perform something closer to .390/.630, although I wouldn't myself bet money on it. I also considered Garrett Atkins (picked 9.13) here, and if the bench were bigger I might have tried to pick him up and play somebody else on the road.

I was very tempted also to ditch my plan and pick up Brad Wilkerson (9.08), who I considered to be a great bargain here, but there will be OF bargains elsewhere and I regretfully decided that 3B and SS were more urgent priorities.

49KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 10:30
for holt
8.16 Mike MacDougal, RP, KC

Yeah I'm over-joyed with this one. my closer strat this year was to make sure I got 2 of em, but to be passive about it and put them off as long as possible. it's not that I mind having macdougal so much - it's the fact that I was forced to take him in the 8th round that bugs me. it's now 2 rounds later, and no RP has been selected since macdougal, so yes - that's the sound a barrel being scraped that you're hearing.

go royals.

50KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 10:31
for holt
9.01 Edgar Renteria, SS, ATL

I only had 1 MI at this point so I felt it was important to take another one before I got totally macdougaled at this position. renteria isn't spectacular in any one area, but of the MI's that were left I thought he was the best one across the board. I'm not expecting a great OPS (.740 maybe) but I think he'll bounce back a bit in atlanta and provide solid R/RBI production (last season he had 100 runs, 70 rbi). I hear he's lost some weight so I'm hoping between that and leaving boston that he'll get 15 sb's or more. I don't have any major SB threats so I didn't think I could afford to draft any MI's that weren't a threat on the bases.

I came pretty close to drafting Hermida til I came to the decision that I needed an MI. was thinking there was a slight chance he'd drop a couple rounds.

51KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 10:31
for Toral
9.02 Carlos Guillen, SS, Det

Guliien was a disappointment to his backers last year with knee injuries keeping him out of a lot of action and his power declining significantly when he was able to play. Even so, his .368/.434 was quite decent for a shortstop. He's 31, but there's at least some grounds to hope for an uptick, back toward his 04 performance of .542 slugging. If he can stay healthy and put up 75 runs and 60 rbi he'll help my team. Also on the radar as I was preparing my queue here were Renteria (taken just before him at 9.01) and Barmes (9.10)

52KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 15023167
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 10:32
9.03 Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA
I normally don't draft prospects or "potential RoY" candidates or guys like that. I tend to try to stick with proven players. But, with the 9th round upon us and Hermida still sitting WAY up on my hitters sheet, he was becoming harder and harder to ignore. I gave every benefit of the doubt as to why to just leave him there, but in the end I just couldn't pass up the potential.

I had given thought to filling other positions on my team here, but I didn't want to get too far into the draft without having an OFer. I'm taking a risk by making my first OF pick a guy who has just 41 major league AB, but if he comes close to Rotowire's projections of 90 R, 79 RBI, 15 SB, .390 OBP, and .495 SLG, I'll be more than happy with this pick. My personal projections actually have him ever so slightly better and I'm hoping I've out-projected Rotowire on this one.

At 22 years old, this will be a very high risk, very high reward pick.
53Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 14:24
for mMoses
9.04 Javier Vazquez, SP, CWS
This pick has a lot to do with Javier's change in environment. I feel that CHW's better defense will help his usual high ERA, while their better record will also give him a chance at 15+ wins. If both of these occur, due to his new team, I'd also be happy with his usual 1.25~ WHIP and 190~ K's. I also considered John Lackey and Scott Kazmir at this pick. I feel that any of the three would have been fine, but that Javier had more room for improvement in W's.
54Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 14:25
for Chris
9.05 Danny Haren, SP, OAK
Haren becomes the second returning player to my team, after his breakout season in Oakland last year. In 2005, he posted 14 wins, 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 162 k's. With an improving offense behind him, I fully expect him to up his win totals(a category that ALWAYS gives me trouble) and keep his other stats relatively the same.
55Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 14:30
9.06 John Lackey, SP, Ana

I almost took Brad Wilkerson. He was second on my short list of 2 players. I actually thought Chris might take Wilkerson just ahead of me, as he has only one outfielder and no first basemen yet. But I guess he wanted to start picking up some starters as well. He and I had the only teams with no starters yet.

Last year, I waited until round 11 to take my first starting pitcher, and landed what turned out to be my staff ace (Willis) in round 13. I don’t know if that was luck or skill, but it did give me the confidence (or at least the cahones) to defer on starters again this year, although I was always willing to jump in if someone seemed to slip too far.

I don’t know if Lackey fits that “slipped too far” description, but he is the highest rated pitcher on my list right now. Looking at the other RIBC drafts, he was taken as early as the 5th round, and never as late the 9th round. As I began to probe a little deeper, I began to get enthused.

Here’s the schtick. Last year, just about anyone who drafted Lackey was probably disappointed, unless they were very patient. And anyone who picked him up, either via trade, or more likely as a free agent, was probably thrilled. Because he really sucked in April, and was pretty awesome for the rest of the year.

After some more research, it appears that this is a recurring Lackey theme. Bad in April, pretty good thereafter. It has happened for each of the last three years. That may not be statistically significant, but it sure is pronounced.

Here are his career splits:
April
ERA: 6.66
WHIP: 1.78
K/IP: 0.6

All other months
ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.33
K/IP: 0.8

Here are the same breakouts for the 2005 season alone:
April
ERA: 5.61
WHIP: 1.71
K/IP: 0.82

All other months
ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.28
K/IP: 0.97

So my plan is to keep him on my bench in April, and then start him. Maybe that’s an odd approach for my first starter drafted, but that’s the plan, pending further analysis of matchups.

Then there’s this “karma” thing. His MLB head-shot photo looks very much resembles my oldest son. How can I not take him?
56JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 14:39
9.07 Placido Polanco 2B
Still needing 3 MI at this point in the draft, I could not wait too much longer to select my first one because of the overall scarcity at 2B and SS. At the top of the Tigers order, Polanco should have a good amount of opportunities to score runs and at .450 SLG projections and .360 OBP, seemed like the better option among those remaining and even though he is not a real steals guy even as a leadoff hitter. Perhaps I'll get lucky and he'll swipe a dozen. I'll have to find some speed elsewhere.
57TB
      ID: 3579513
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 16:18
9.08 Brad Wilkerson, 1B/OF, TEX

Wilkerson had a bum shoulder last year that affected his play. With his trade to the Rangers, we expect numbers similar to his 2004 season, 100+ runs, 70 RBI, 10-15 steals, and a .850 OPS. Having 1B/OF eligibility is an added bonus.
58I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 3579513
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 16:18
for Dave R
9.09 Josh Beckett SP Bos

I really wrestled with this choice. I needed another starter and considered Mulder, Patterson, Zito, and Kazmir, all taken immediately after I chose Josh.

Beckett is always a blister or some other injury away from missing a start, or more. But the talent is there and if he can come anywhere close to 200 innings I'd be thrilled.

His ERA will probably take a jump, but his WHIP should still be decent, he strikes out nearly a batter an inning, and playing for Boston he should easily get 16-17 wins or more.

If he stays healthy.
59I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 3579513
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 16:19
9.10 Clint Barmes, SS, COL
Really wanted to grab another scracity position this round, before going for another OF/SP. Was set on either getting Reintera or Barmes here. Barmes showed up to Camp 20lbs heavier, so maybe that might lead to a little extra punch in his swing, and is expected to be the #2 hitter in the Rockies lineup. Don't trip...
61jumpball
      Sustainer
      ID: 33050298
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 18:10
9.11 Barry Zito, SP, OAK

At this point, 12 managers have at least 2 closers, and a total of 27 have been selected from 30 teams. I see no reason to be drafting for saves anymore at this point in the draft.
I decided to postpone seleting another MI until next round, because the 2 that I have my eyes on will still be a reach in round 10, so I looked for the best player to improve my team.
I couldn't find a hitter that stood out, other than [Undrafted], so I looked at pitching. Beckett had just been chosen, and Zito and Burnett stood out. I know Kazmir might have been the sexy pick, but I just couldn't handle the number of walks he gives up besides being on a team where he'll struggle to get Ws. With AJ changing leagues, he slipped a notch behind Barry.

The numbers Zito put up in a 19 start stretch from May 27 through the end of August last year were fantastic (11W, 2.55 ERA. 1.03 WHIP, 105Ks in 129 INN) . . . I'd like to think that he can do that again, only for 20+ starts!
62Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 18:43
Placeholder for

9.12 Scott Kazmir, SP, TB


Kazmir is more of an upside pick than anything else. Kazmir's minor league numbers(2.40 ERA, 11.15 K/9, 1.12 WHIP) hint at the potential that he has, but of course the key factor is whether Kazmir can curtail his walks(100 last year). It's almost a given that a young pither will improve his control after his first full season. The question to me is how much? I'm hoping that he makes solid strides, and that all his other numbers(10W, 3.77 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 174 k's) benefit from his improved control.
63Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 18:43
for Blue Hen
9.13 Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL

Atkins is a fine hitter. I think his road numbers will go up this year and he'll reach the stratosphere at home. This is about how Todd Helton started, and while I can't possibly hope for that kind of production, Vinny Castilla did win an RBI title playing third for the Rockies. Though he struggled a bit last year, Atkins finished with 89 RBIs and I think he'll prove to be a cornerstone of my offense this season.

64Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 18:45
9.14 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY

This was the last MI available whom I thought could truly have a positive impact on my team. No other player was seriously considered at this point, as there were still several similar SP sitting out there, which was my other need at this point in the draft. As with Huff, I want a player with upside. The buzz is that the veterans on the team have gone out of their way to make Cano fit in. Here's hoping he gets settled in, avoids the sophomore slump and perhaps shows a better eye at the plate.
65CanEHdian Pride
      ID: 161101820
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 18:51
hubble placeholder

9.15 A.J. Burnett, SP, Tor

With Schmidt and Schilling already anchoring my pitching staff, i thought about adding a 3rd ace to my team. I considered Burnett to be the best option avalaible. My optimistic projection are 15W, 200K, <3.80 ERA,<1.30 WHIP.
66CanEHdian Pride
      ID: 161101820
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 19:06
9.16 Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cin

First of all, I am aware that I do not yet have a SS. I would like to say I have a plan but it vanished when Toral grab Carlos Guillen at the beginning of this round. Shifting gears I decided to solidify my CI spot and also provide a solid backup to an aging Mora. Encarnacion is currently a Spring Training darling and in some circles that will cause managers to underrate a player without cause. Edwin has consistantly put up numbers at every minor league stop and he has done so at an age 1 or 2 years young for that level. His power numbers have been relatively steady and his recent surge should be evidence that he can handle a bat at the pro level and still show some good pop. One stat that encourages me, relevant or not, is his SB%. For a player not known for his speed he shows the ability to steal bags fairly consistantly which I believe translates into having a good feel for the game at a very young age. I'm sure this can be debated but smarts and discipline can go a long way when you have the talent that Edwin has demonstrated. That's my logic and I'm stickin' to it!

10.01 Freddy Garcia, SP, Chi (A)

I had this picked nailed down about 5 selections prior to mine. Unfortunatley Hubble killed me again by grabbing Burnett. I think Garcia has been groomed to be a #1 pitcher his whole career. Unfortunately for Freddy, he has #2 stuff, a #2 head and a #2 heart. Behind Buehrle Freddy should continue to flourish as he can allow Buehrle to be the ace and just be a very solid #2 arm in a quality rotation. I think you will see improvements in his numbers this year over last as he continues to settle into his role on the Pale Hose and realizes that he has to be the best #2 pitcher he can be. Come on Freddy....YOU CAN DO IT!
67Hubble
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 22:35
10.02 C.C. Sabathia, SP, CLE

When i had to change my strategy of securing my infielders and RP, i never thought i would switch to the one strategy i despise: taking SP before 10th round.... but heck, when i looked at the list of hitters avalaible i thought i could safely wait 30 picks to still get infielders i targeted. I saw so many names and i thought more manager would actually start to pick SP. I had my eyes on Casey, Fielder, Overbay, Biggio, Morneau, Shelton... I was certain 1 of them would fall to me. Well, none did, that is why, with insight, i consider Sabathia to be a bad pick. Even though he is a good pitcher who should give me 15 Wins, i have a weaker team because of him.
68Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Thu, Mar 16, 2006, 22:37
10.03 John Patterson, SP, WAS

Patterson was near the top of a pack of SP whom I had been looking at for a while which included Haren, Lackey, Myers and Vazquez. I am glad now glad I didn't pounce earlier on Lackey, as I just liked him best because I had seen him pitch the most last year since he was on my team. I was set on Lackey even though Patterson ranked at the top of my list statistically. As long as he pitches half of his games at home where he has a park whose dimensions were made for him, he should have another fine year.
69Blue Hen
      ID: 521191210
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 01:08
10.04 Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN

Finally. This pick really makes me happy. Despite a terrible 2005, Morneau has been waiting to break out for a long time. And I think 2006 will be the year he does it. We're talking 35 home runs, over 100 RBI, an on-base percentage around .400. Did you notice that Morneau has had an OBP 65 points higher than his BA in each of the past two seasons? I expect him to be about 85 points higher this season, hitting .310 and OBP'ing .395. With good power, he'll be a great part of my lineup.
70I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 521191210
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 01:08
for Athletics Guy
10.05 Mark Mulder, SP, STL

I was all ready to take John Patterson here. Unfortunately, Trip snagged him 2 picks before my turn came up. What makes it even worse is that EH offered me his draft pick, but I refused to trade up. Patterson should have been mine. Argh! I still wanted to take a pitcher here, so I took who I thought was the next best one. And that was Mark Mulder. He might not have the excellent K ratio that Patterson has, but he does have a better chance of winning 18+ games. Hopefully my 2 aces (Martinez & Zambrano) can compensate for Mulder's low strikeout numbers. If it works out like I hope it will, I should easily have 50+ wins from my top 3 starters. I would be very pleased with that.

71jumpball
      ID: 521191210
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 01:09
10.06 Bill Hall, SS, MIL

I reached here because I wanted to make sure I had my 3rd MI before the pickings got really slim. Hall had a nice year in 2005 (69/62/18/.342/.495 in 128 starts). I expect that he'll get more starts this year which will result in a bump in the first 3 numbers. It's not hard to see him starting 140-145 games with 80/70/25/.345/.485 -- if he does that, it was worth the reach.

At this point in the draft, I have a solid core of 5 Infielders with 3 MIs and my 3 starting pitchers are solid. I think that core will compensate for not having a top closer. We'll find out!
74I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 521191210
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 01:54
10.07 Randy Winn, OF, SFO
Last year I drafted **** with the hopes that hitting behind Bonds would provide a lot of RBI opportunities. This year, I'm going with Winn hearing that he should be hitting 3rd in front of Bonds. He put up phenominal #s after the trade to SF last year, and hope he can only continue to give a portion of that this year (231AB = 14HR, 7SB, 39R, 26RBI, 1.071OPS.)
75Dave R
      Dude
      ID: 3010361110
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 08:53
10.08 Prince Fielder 1b Mil

By this time 12 firstman had been selected, none by me. I had Overbay, Johnson and Fielder on my list.
Overbay would have been the safe pick.

Fielder is a top contender for ROY and has outstanding power. Rotowire projects him for 30+ Hr's, 100+ RBI's and a +.500 SLG%. I'd gladly take those numbers because sadly his OPB% will likely be fairly low.

77JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 09:01
For TB/MC

10.09 Cliff Lee, SP, Cle
The first returning starter to our team from last year's squad. His 18 wins and 143 K's solidified our starting staff last season and we are hoping he can provide the same this year. Most of the starting pitchers on our radar for this upcoming pick were coming off the board, which wasn't a surprise. I thought we were going to draft Lyle Overbay, he was our top remaining hitter at this point, but when Lee made it back to us we decided to grab our third starter.
78JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 09:03
10.10 Zach Duke SP Pit
I am always a little leary of the inevitable sophmore slide after an unexpected successful debut year, but wanted to take a pitcher with a real "upside" potential. The Pirates 'Ace' (sorry blue hen, it is no longer Ollie) hopefully will settle into his first full season with double digit wins, an ERA in the mid-3's and managable WHIP in the low 1.2s.
79Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 09:37
10.11 Lyle Overbay, 1B, Tor

Overbay benefits in this league by using OBP, as his is typically about 90 points higher than his batting average. He lacks the power of many first sackers, although the move to Toronto this year may help somewhat in that regard. In any event, I have him as the best hitter on the board now, with a consensus projection of 88-85-.370-.470.
80Chris
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 14:23
10.12 Erik Bedard, SP, Bal

Everybody in this league from last year knows what I think about Erik Bedard's potential. I didn't want to risk losing him, so I made him the 3rd returning player to my team in the 10th round. Bedard was on his way to putting up a "Peavy in '04" season before an injury derailed his year. Here's hoping that a fully healthy Bedard shows up this season and justifies my faith in him.
81mMoses
      ID: 15023167
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 15:22
10.13 Willy Taveras, OF, HOU

I had Willy in my sites for a few rounds now, as I wanted to give Podsednik a partner in helping out my speed. I'd be fully content if he would match last year's stats, with 30+ sb's and 80+ runs. However, he's only 24 years old, and I have definite hope for improvement. If he could improve his batting eye a little bit, his opportunities for stolen bases could rise vastly. If he could raise his OBP from .325 to Podsenik's .340~ range, their similary in stats at the end of the season could be very nice for my SB points.
82KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 15023167
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 15:23
10.14 Kenji Johjima, C, SEA
Two high risk, high reward picks in a row. I think this is a record for me in a fantasy sports draft. Granted, Johjima isn't quite the high risk of Hermida, but coming over from Japan has worked well for some players (Suzuki!) and horribly for others (the Toad). I'm obviously rooting for more of Suzuki than Irabu, but that's the risk.

In 2003 and 2004, Johjima could be counted on for about 95 R, 100 RBI, 7 SB, .415 OBP, .625 SLG. His numbers took a significant dip in 2005, but he also only had 463 AB because of a fractured shinbone.

I ended up taking Johjima for several reasons...
1) I think 2005 was more of an aberation because of the injury than a sign of things to come.
2) If he gets close to the 74 R, 71 RBI, 4 SB, .342 OBP, and .517 SLG that Rotowire projects, he'll be a top 5 catcher according to my sheet and that's good enough for me in the 10th round.
3) He's more than capable of getting 500+ AB and there's only a handful of catchers that I think that's realistic for.

He's 30 years old, so I'm not going to expect him to have any kinds of major improvement, but if he reaches my own projections I'll be happy. If he reaches Rotowire's projections, I'll be ecstatic.
83Toral
      ID: 541029611
      Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 15:38
10.15 Chris Shelton, 1B, Det

I wanted to select a corner IF here as I saw a number of good candidates who were unlikely to make it back to me. Chris Shelton will have the 1B position from the get-go in Detroit, he can hit, and the consensus seems to be that he handles the duties around the sack well enough that he has no dangers there. He put up a .360/.510 last year, and at 25 should still be improving. He could slip somerwhat from these numbers and still be valuable. He could use some help from the lineup around it to top 70 runs and 80 RBI. Just below him in my queue were Lyle Overbay (went before him at 10.11) and Dan Johnson (11.12).
84Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 23, 2006, 12:32
for holt
10.16 Cliff Floyd, OF, NYM

I took a chance on Floyd last season and it paid off. I know it seems he's been around forever but he's only 33. The kidney problem he had doesn't sound like it's serious.

last season:
.358 .505 12-sb 85-r 98-rbi

as long as he stays off the DL I think he can put up similar #'s (maybe even better with Delgado, Beltran, and Wright around him).
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