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0 Subject: RIBC 2006 - Draft Rationales (rounds 11-15)

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 17, 2006, 13:00

Continuing for the next five rounds.

Rationales for rounds 1-5

Rationales for rounds 6-10

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30KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 372241910
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 14:52
for mMoses
12.13 Juan Uribe, SS, CHW

The news is that Ozzie wants Juan to bat 2nd this year, right after Podsednik, and right before Thome and Konerko. That should make for much better protection than he had in the lower half of the order last season. I likely reached, yet again, but I had been targetting Uribe for my late SS pickup since the start of the draft. If he can stay high in the CHW batting order, I imagine 70+ rbi's and runs is a great possibility.

31KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 372241910
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 14:52
12.14 Jon Lieber, SP, PHI
I made this pick while projecting Lieber with a 4.29 ERA. Lieber was the highest ranked SP I had who I didn't feel like fit the high risk/high reward pattern I had established with my previous 3 picks. Lieber should bring in a good amount of wins (16) and good amount of K's (140). Rotowire projects his ERA to be quite a bit lower than my projected 4.29 because of the fences being moved in PHI, but I'll just consider my projection to be a worst-case scenario. And even then, he's fine for my team.

If Young was still there, I would have taken Young, but I missed him by 3 picks.
32KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 20:33
for Toral
12.15 Mike Sweeney, 1B, KC

This was supposed to be a positional need pick devoted elsewhere but I gleefully tossed that plan into the circular file when I saw Mike Sweeney sitting open on the board. I already had my 3 CIs but we do have a UTIL position too and I was happy to sign Sweeney up for it. I had considered Sweeney at the time I picked Chris Shelton at 10.15 and there he was 2 rounds later. The only pick I've made that I consider a "steal" and one of the few I've seen in this draft. I will be interested to see if holt, who had yet to select a 1B, was waiting for Sweeney to fall to him like an overripe fruit.

Sweeney could dash all my hopes by spending half the year on the DL of course. He's already out for a week or two with a bone bruise. The hope is that DHing will allow him to haul his aged carcass to the plate 525+ times with a 70-85-.350/.510 line. One caution: I have now been stocking up with the aged and infirm for a few rounds so my bench will be playing an important role.

33KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 20:33
for holt
12.16 Nick Swisher, 1b/OF, OAK

Well, I got bamboozled at 1b. It wasn't my plan to not draft any decent first sackers. there just aren't enough to go around. what's up with that? I suppose Swisher will be decent if he can get his average up. 21 hr and and 74 rbi in 462 AB last season wasn't too shabby.

34KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 20:33
for holt
13.01 Jason Lane, OF, HOU

still a few OF's left that can make an impact. no other position interested me much at this point. Lane, Alou, Gonzo, Mench, Green, Wilson, Granderson all look good, and they are all sure to go very soon (I was hoping Granderson might make it back around but sanfordors snapped him up). It was hard selecting one over the others, but I guess I view Lane as having a higher ceiling than the others.

.327 .507 in 749 career AB's. maybe he'll really break out this year.

35KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 20:33
for Toral
13.02 Joe Borowski, RP, Fla

This was a mental health pick. In advancement of my own mental health. Last year I kept holding off on picking putative- quasi- and pseudo-closers as not value picks and came away with Braden Looper and a heap of nothing. The saves category all worked out well in the end but for the rest of the draft I had become a nervous wreck and was botching picks at other positions. With Borowski in the bag I can fool my subconscious into believing I have "2 proven closers" so that worrying about it doesn't screw up my thinking for the whole rest of the draft. Borowski could nab 40 saves or be written out of the closer role before this rationale is posted. Hasn't been much since 2003 but I suspect he has enough left to be a positive force in the stats even if he ends up pitching garbage time. Probably not a good value pick.

36KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 20:34
13.03 Moises Alou, OF, SFO
Alou has always been the kind of guy that doesn't really stand out to me. I don't know why. Maybe this year, I'll actually pay more attention to him.

This was a tough choice for me. I had several players across several positions in mind and I decided to go with my gut more than anything. Rotowire and I project Alou about the same. I'm really counting on Alou for OBP and SLG, even though he's starting to creep up there in age quite a bit. I think a healthy Bonds will do Alou good and the addition of Randy Winn should help the lineup as well. My projections are based on 500 AB, so anything more than that will just help out in the R and RBI department.

Oh, and after three high risk/high reward picks in a row, I've gone with some veterans in my last two picks. I just couldn't bring myself to keep taking "potential" with that many consecutive picks.
37Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 22:25
for mMoses
13.04 Aaron Boone, 3B, CLE

Another reach, but also another player I had been targetting since the start of the draft as a late pick. 3B has been noted as one of the deeper positions this year, and only one other manager didn't have a 3B up to this point... Which makes me think I could have waited longer for this pick. However, he's seemingly healthy, and both him and his manager are confident he's ready to rebound. I'm hoping for an .800 OPS and 15sb... 60 runs and rbi's are what I'm imagining, which is a bit weak for 3B this year, but the 15sb is what I was really looking for.

38Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 22:26
for Chris
13.05 Casey Kotchman, 1B, LAA

Kotchman completes my infield and gives me another 2nd year 1B with considerable potential. Kotchman has always had fantastic strike zone control(149BB/128K in the minors), and posted an 836 OPS in his limited appearances last year. He's impressed the Angels enough to persuade them to start Kotchman at 1B this year. I'm expecting a big year from Kotchman, and hoping that he doesn't disappoint.

39Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 22:28
13.06 Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Cle

On the hitting side, I need 2 OFs, 3B, MI, and Util. The list of relatively comparable outfielders is as long as my arm – which was one reason why I generally shied away from that position earlier in the draft. I see no reason to jump yet. 3B and MI are getting to be problem slots, so let’s see what I can do there.

One intriguing option is Mike Lowell, who is actually eligible at both positions, although his value is certainly greater at 2B. He had a putrid season last year, but could a year in Fenway Park be just what the doctor ordered? Or is he simply over the hill? He’s only 32, so the age isn’t troubling. But last year’s 56-58-.298-.362 sure is, even for a middle infielder.

Bill Mueller has the same dual position elig, but moves from Fenway to Dodger Stadium. That can’t be a good thing.

Belliard has the benefit of job security and playing in a solid lineup. He was pretty steady for the whole 2005 season, and I have him ranked at #120 among all hitters last year, and at this point, he’s the 123rd hitter selected in this draft. To fill a tough MI slot, that seems like decent value. It also gives me Cleveland players up the middle – Victor, Jhonny, and now Ronnie. How’d I miss out on Grady?
40JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 22:52
13.07 Khalil Green SS SD
Was going to be away for 24 hours and had to make a queue when the draft was at my last selection, 12 picks ago. The queue was set up for my expecation that it would cover this round and next. At the top of this queue, I had Sweeney Borowski (both selected by Toral) then Green and another SS. I really figured one of the SS would be my 14.10 pick, but it is just as well to secure one here. Khalil has pretty good slugging numbers for a shortstop this late in the draft, a category that you usually conceed with a late round MI. A .440-.450 SLG is a reasonable expectation, especially with Petco bringing the fences in with his 'warning track power'. I am hoping that will also help his woeful OBP which based on my last 3 selections (Torii Hunter and IRod and now Green) may be a team concern.
41TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 23:12
13.08 Scot Shields, RP, LAA

Ah yes, Scot Shields (or “Solo T” as we like to call him) has to be TB and MC’s mutual favorite non-closing RP in the big leagues. When we eventually meet up in Kansas City, I am sure the meeting will revolve around whether the Angels are in town that day. We have to see our boy pitch! This guy has some nasty stuff. It was on display a few times in the World Baseball Classic, including the time when he let one of the inherited runners score for the decisive run the other night against Mexico. That’s our boy! Saving his real stuff for Major League hitters in the coming months. What shrewd cunning.

After winning 8 games in 2004, Shields trotted out in tight games and won 10 last year. He also closed for a few weeks when K-Rod went down with injury and piled up 7 saves. What a machine. Consistently low WHIP, excellent ERA, pitches close to a 100 innings per year, you know all of this because you wanted him, too. Anyway, this guy is a 5-tool category machine, and you can’t say that about many other pitchers. He helps all the way around, and that’s one of our team mottos: Get guys that help all the way around. TB made it up; that’s why it sounds like it came from a farmer’s son.
42I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 521191210
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 23:57
For Dave R

13.09 Josh WIllingham, C, Fla

I hadn't planned on taking a catcher until later, and from what I've read about Willingham's defensive prowess, I'm not sure I did. But he's apparently being given every opportunuty to impress Giraldi and win the job. If not it seems the OF is an option. Maybe better yet.

Apparently this kid can hit. Rotowire projects 20 HR's, 77 RBI's, 87 runs, .498 SLG %, and a .366 OBP%. I'd gladly take that from my catcher, taken in round 13.

43I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 521191210
      Sun, Mar 19, 2006, 23:58
13.10 Jose Contreras, SP, CWS
Well… I finally pick my 2nd SP. In holding off for so long, I knew that the Wins CAT would be one that might be difficult to compete in. Taking a pitcher from the defending champs seemed like a good idea. I might not see last years #s again soon (77th in our league), but here's hoping. He's supposedly had a little "stiffness" in his arm. Hoping that's just a little spring training rust he needs to shake out.
44jumpball
      Sustainer
      ID: 33050298
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 00:18
13.11 Luis Gonzalez, OF, ARZ

It was time to get the best hitter available. I considered seven hitters here, and all seven were selected between 13.11 through 14.04!

I went with Gonzo out of that group simply because I expect him to have more RBIs and the best OPS out of the group.
45Athletics Guy
      ID: 43219110
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 00:48
13.12 Shawn Green, OF, ARI

I didn't plan on picking 3 outfielders in a row. My team probably had other needs I should have addressed, but Shawn Green was just too good to pass up here. Like Jenkins, he should be a safe choice to reproduce or improve his numbers from last season. And that's just fine with me. I don't care what Randy, Paula or Simon think. This team is looking great.
46Blue Hen
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 10:03
13.13 Kevin Mench, OF, TEX
When I got stuck with pick 13, I realized that I'd have the pleasure of picking at 13.13, easily the luckiest spot in the draft. When the time came, I realized just how lucky it was. In addition to grabbing an up-and-coming stud in a hitters' park in a superstar lineup, I was also able to fill a position at which I had only drafted one player. But more important than any of that, I drafted the one Major Leaguer I have actually played against (he struck me out on three pitches in 1995).

I've been very lucky to have filled out other spots without worrying about my outfield. Mench is a large part of that.

47Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 10:03
13.14 Brad Penny, SP, LAD

IF Penny can stay healthy he should have a good year. He is only 27 and pitches in a Pitchers park. He has apparently fully recovered from a biceps injury and has come in to camp in great shape. A slew of OF in the same tier were considered with this pick, but I figured the one I wanted would come back to me anyways (he did).
48Hubble
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 11:06
13.15 Jeff Francouer, OF, ATL
Pfewwww, i can't beleive a player i had targeted actually made it back to me! When i took 4 pitchers and 2 MI with my last 6 picks i knew i would need some power # to compensate a little, i had few OF i mind that would help me out in SLG and RBI. Francoeur was on the top of my sheet by a whole lot. This kid was absolutly nasty when he was called up by Atlanta last year, i remember seeing him on the F/A market and thinking he would fall in oblivion soon enought... Blue Hen took him (if i remember right) and rode his # all the way to september. I'm pretty sure he had an eye on him again this year and didn't want to take a chance to loose him even if i perhaps reached a little. Spring training: 2 HR in 5AB so far ... Project that over 500AB! That is some power my friend, he should beat Hank's record in 4 years! Seriously, give me 80R, 80RBI, 0.850 OPS and i will be satisfy.
49cEHp
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 11:08
13.16 Ramon Hernandez, C, BAL
One player I'd had been targeting since round 1 was Ramon Hernandez. I knew I could let the catcher position go w/o addressing it for awhile and I think that Ramon, given a full season can be among the top 5 fantasy catchers (11 catchers taken overall). I was feeling pretty good about how I was gauging the position until Willingham came off the board and I felt I had to move to secure a solid catcher fearing a run amongst the top 5 before it got back to me. Ramon finished 2005 with a strong September (.398 OBP) after battling wrist injuries for much of the middle of the season. He's always been solid at getting on base and has relatively good power -- if Ramon can put together 500 healthy ABs he will be quite a value this late and should come in around .362/.498/80/45. At 29 he is still young and capable of improvement.

14.01 Milton Bradley, OF, OAK
I may have reached slightly on this pick however I wasn't really impressed with anyone else on the board and I felt like I was running my draft according to plan (for the most part -- see rationale 15.16) so I thought I'd take a gamble on a player with loads of potential. Bradley is a fantastic athlete who has demonstrated a strong ability to get on base, though his SB potential will evaporate in Oakland. He was showing a solid power stroke pre-ASB last season but had his season wiped out by an injury which hurt his totals. A change of scenery should help Bradley espeically moving to a more accomodating hitter's park which should help increase his power numbers. Milton in his "Age 27" season is primed for a breakout campaign. I think if he can keep his head and the knee isn't an issue, he will be a nice lift in production for my OF which is a little lean on power. 20+ HRs are almost guaranteed if he stays healthy and with a solid Oakland lineup 90 RBIs are quite possible.

50Hubble
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 11:09
14.02 Jay Gibbons, 1B, BAL

At this point in the draft, i have only 1/3 of my CI positions (Hank Blalock at 3B) and i'm still under average in SLG department. Granted that the 3B was deep this year, but i guess i totally missed the boat. Gibbons gives me that power i lacked and should fit nicely in my team. For some reason, i thought Gibbons was an old fart, but heck he is only 28, hopefully he'll be a little more patient at the plate and raise that OBP a little, a perhaps with a little luck he could come close to his 2003 season. I look for: 70R, 80RBI, 0.825 OPS
51Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 11:11
14.03 David Dejesus, OF, KC

Tell me I didn't just draft a Royal. I did? Are you sure? Dejesus may be a Royal, but he is a solid hitter and should help bolster my OBP, not hurt me in SLG, and contribute to all the counting categories. The fact that he is only 26 is also a plus and he has a chance to significantly improve on his projected numbers.
52for blue hen
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:37
14.04 David Dellucci, OF, TEX

When he's played, Dellucci's numbers have been even better than Mench. He has more power and draws more walks. For some reason, those idiots in Texas are considering having [UNDRAFTED] taking at bats away from Dellucci, which is the only reason he has fallen this far. I now have 3 of the 9 Texas hitters, a team which figures to be one of the top hitting teams in all of baseball. Can't complain about that.
53for Athletics Guy
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:38
14.05 Matt Cain, SP, SFO
With their 14th pick, the Oaktown A's select Matt Cain, the 2006 National League Rookie of the Year. That's right, Matt Cain! He made an impressive debut in 2004, posting an ERA of 2.33 and a WHIP of 0.93 through 46.1 innings. He was nearly unhittable, holding batters to a .151 BA. Like most young pitchers, Cain does have some control issues and his walks will probably be fairly high. But with the 14th pick, I was willing to take the risk on a guy who could put up Felix Hernandez-type numbers.
54for Jumpball
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:39
14.06 Dave Roberts, OF, SDG

Who knows what I would have done if one of the guys that I considered at round 13 was still available . . . would I have taken one of them? I was also enamored with Cain, who was taken with the pick just before this one. Without those options I had to look elsewhere and landed on Roberts. In combination with Figgins, I should have no problem staying near the top of the steals category.
56I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 3579513
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:40
14.07 Rocco Baldelli, OF, TAM
Time for a big risk pick. I really should be focusing on SP's right now… but I decided to grab my 4th outfielder instead. He missed the entire 2005 season, but has all the criteria I've had for my outfielders so far... he's can HIT, and he can RUN. I see a lot of people projecting him with a 20/20 season with a avg just under 300. Sounds good to me.
57for Dave R
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:40
14.08 Curtis Granderson, OF, DET
There were some other OFers ranked higher than Granderson in my mind but there were enough concerns, health and otherwise to make me pass on them.

He apparently has won the starting job in center for Detroit, and has a nice blend of power and speed. I think there is a reasaonable chance he can reach 20 steals and score a decent amount of runs as teh Tigers leadoff hitter. His projected OPS from two different sites is .839

58TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:40
14.09 Raul Ibanez, OF, SEA

We need another outfielder and Raul is our top rated remaining fielder, by a wisker. I don't see too many players left that are going to produce 90-90. We are hoping he can produce numbers similar to last year.
59JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 14:46
14.10 Brady Clark OF Mil
This is kind of a compensation move to try to find a player whose OBP can help make up for the three hitters I previous drafted. I had Ibanez in my sights here, but he did not make it to me. As a leadoff hitter, Clark should also help my teams run productions where my offensive selections so far as a group are currently more RBI oriented. Brady will also be another player on my roster who can swipe a dozen bags or so.
60Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 15:11
14.11 Wily Mo Pena, OF, Cin Bos

In a last ditch effort to add a few steals, my short list leading up to this pick included Baldelli, Brady Clark, and DeJesus. 0-for 3.

In retrospect, I think I may have erred in round 1. I stretched a bit for Jason Bay, largely on the basis of his 5-tool capabilities. Since then, I haven’t really added any base stealing. It’s always been a priority, but never the top one. Now, with only 4 starting hitters left to draft, I need a total of about 40 more steals just to be in the running for a ranking better than last place. Had I anticipated that this was how my draft would unfold, I’d probably have been better served to take someone like Manny or Ortiz in round 1. Oh well.

Fortunately, Chris showed last year that it’s possible to succeed while dumping a category (he had a total of 9 saves last season). So let’s go back to power. I decided to go for Wily Mo, who finally gets a chance to start full time for Cincy this season – except for that pesky “morning after” trade to Boston. Suffice it to say that the pick looks less attractive now, unless Boston has other moves to make.
61KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 20:59
for Chris
14.12 Matt Murton, OF, ChC

I was NOT prepared for the run on outfielders. Between 13.05 and 14.12, 13(!) outfielders went out of 22 total picks. Included in that run were guys I had planned to take with my next pick(Mench, Bradley, Granderson, DeJesus). I was thinking I'd get 2 of those guys, silly me! Add to that, Swisher, Alou and Lane who went right before by 13.05 pick, and I can't believe the OF well dried up so quickly.

With that said, I immediately bumped Murton from 4th on my queue to 1st and made him my 2nd outfielder. While he's not as good as any of the names mentioned above, he's still a solid outfielder, in a good offense, in a good hitter's park. Anything over 800 OPS will be fine.

62KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 20:59
for mMoses
14.13 Mike Jacobs, 1B, Flo

I needed both a CI and a C, and from what I understand Jacobs has a chance at getting C eligibility at some point this season. He showed some pretty good power numbers late last season, and is supposedly getting a chance against LHP and RHP this season in Florida. I'd be pleased with 70+ rbi's and runs, and eventual C eligibility... But I could also see Jacobs being one of my first drops if he doesn't start half decently.

63KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 21:01
14.14 Bill Mueller, 2B, LAD
I have actually been targeting Mueller with this pick for a few rounds now. I knew I needed another 2B/SS to fill in my MI slot and a couple of players looked like good options to me. Mueller was at the top of the list because of being a veteran (see my 12.14 rationale for Lieber) and the other players I had ranked near him were either not veterans or had too low of an OBPS.

Mueller moves from a great hitting team/park to sea-level Dodger Stadium, but I don't think it's going to hurt him too much for what I drafted him for. I've projected him at 71 R, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .362 OBP, and .442 SLG. Those numbers are a tad more conservative than Rotowire's projections. No matter, while Mueller is highly unlikely to help my OBP/SLG like a Michael Young, this pick was targeted to be a MI who wouldn't HURT my OBP/SLG. Add in a good amount of Runs and RBI and Mueller was the perfect pick for my team in the 14th round.

Here's hoping Mueller's .387 career OPS at Dodger Stadium is just a result of only having 89 AB there and not a sign of things to come.
64KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 22:15
for Athletics Guy, via trade
14.15 Mike Lowell, 3B, BOS

I thought it would have been Guru who would have taken Mike Lowell in this round, since he didn't have a 3B. But instead, Toral snatched him up. I took major downgrades with 2 of my future picks in order to acquire Lowell, but I thought it was worth it (especially after Guru took Ryan Zimmerman shortly after the turn). I believe 2005 was a fluke year for him and that he'll bounce back with an .850+ OPS season. He's got the right ballpark and the players around him to do it. Another nice thing about Lowell was that he qualifies at 2B too, so he gives my lineup some flexibility.

65KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 22:15
for holt
14.16 Odalis Perez, SP, LAD

At this point I only had Carpenter and Smoltz at SP. of all the SP's available I simply thought Perez had the best potential of having a dominant season. past whip's of 0.99 and 1.14 prove that he has the stuff to be an ace, and he's only 28. if he stinks then no sweat - I release his sorry butt. I didn't draft him looking for a sure 13 wins and 4 ERA. I'm looking for lightning in a bottle.

15.01 Adam LaRoche, 1B, ATL

The pickings got slim FAST at 1b this season. I can't leave the draft with only Swisher at 1b, so I grab LaRoche which effectively gives me TWO Swishers. poor average, dissapointing OBP's, some power with upside, solid RBI production.

not jumping up and down that I have swish and laroche at 1b, but I viewed them as being less risky than guys like c.jackson, d.young, and nevin. I thought I was gonna be sneaky and take lance niekro late in the draft but moses beat me to the punch. probably just as well.

67KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 22:15
for Toral
15.02 Chris Capuano, SP, Mil

Capuano was one of a lump of 4 pitchers I thought might be available here to fill my next pitching slot. Matt Cain, the top of the group, was already gone (14.05) and that left me with 3 pitchers who I have projected about the same, although they're really different types of pitchers -- Capuano, Matt Clement and Mike Mussina (16.07). In all honesty I consider Capuano more likely to regress than to get better this year, but so must everyone else or he'd be long gone by now. The 7.2 K/9 number indicates he isn't doing it with smoke and mirrors, and he was a highly regarded prospect back when. He should pick up 14 or so wins and have an era not much above 4, and the potential for a year as good as 04 or better is there. Walk totals and gopher ball propensity need improvement.

68KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 36238119
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 22:17
15.03 Kevin Millwood, SP, TEX
I had figured on picking up another SP with this pick for quite some time. Although there were 21 SP ahead of Millwood on my sheet, the only one I was considering taking instead of him was Chris Capuano. Thank you, Toral, for making my mind up for me.

Last year, I got Millwood in the 13th round and enjoyed his 2.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP all year long. Unfortunately, he didn't get as many Wins as I had hoped for, but it's hard to argue with his stat line in the 13th round of such a deep draft.

This year, Millwood makes the move to Arlington and he's fallen to me in the 15th round. My only concern is if last year was an abberation. My instincts say it's not. Millwood has always had a decent enough K/9 and K/BB. Outside of 2004 with the Phillies, Millwood's WHIP has never been above 1.33 when he's been a regular starter.

I mulled this pick over for a while before adding Millwood to my short list, but in the end, there was no solid reason to pass him over.
69Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 23:29
for mMoses
15.04 Jon Garland, SP, CWS

This was a value pick, as I didn't really think I needed to jump on another SP yet. I won't be counting on another 18 win season, but a 26 year old that won 18 games in the previous season seemed like great value in round 15. Assuming he's moved down in the pitching rotation, he should be pitching against even weaker opposing SP's this year.

70Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 23:30
for Chris
15.05 Esteban Loaiza, SP, OAK

While Oakland is not nearly the pitcher's haven that Washington is, I think Loaiza will help me in 2 categories(wins and k's), and not hurt me too badly in the others. Nothing sexy about this pick at all, but my aim in this draft was to take as many Oaklanders as possible(I believe the 2006 A's are the most impressive team assembled in my lifetime), and this gives me 5(Street, Haren, Crosby, Johnson and Loaiza). Victory is assured!

71Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 23:31
15.06 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Wash

I have no third baseman, and Zimmerman seems to have the Nats job without any competition. He’s got no competition at third on my roster either, so he’ll get every chance to produce. He hit well in limited late-season action last year, and has continued with the hot bat this spring. But the sample size is very small, and of course, that ballpark in D.C. won’t help him out.

Consolidated projections show 65-65-5-.320-.415, but I think there is plenty of upside from those numbers, particularly the averages. I sure hope so, at least, because if he only produces those consensus numbers, then it will be a disappointing pick. Worth a 15th round gambit, though, especially given the thinning 3B talent remaining.
72JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 23:39
15.07 Derek Lowe SP LAD
Had a queue of several middle relievers ahead of Lowe, but since they are all still available and some have been taken much later in other RIBC drafts, I do not mind waiting a round since I can use an SP (as long as one of them makes it back). Lowe should win 15-18 this year if he puts up the similar numbers as last season, with a better Dodger team around him. I am a little leary of a possible 4.00 ERA and 1.3+ WHIP so have to hope those are worst case numbers and that pitching in the NL and in Dodger Stadium for half his games equalizes them now that the distractions of 2005 are behind him. I will need the rest of my staff to balance out his ERA/WHIP.
73TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 20, 2006, 23:48
15.08 Luis A. Gonzalez, 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/SP/RP/TE/LB/SF/PG, COL

As I said before I am psychic and know things about the new “Luis Gonzalez” on the scene. I mean, why are we labeling such a versatile player “2B”? He can do so much more than that, and he will for our team. We foresee weeks where we slide Louie into 3 or 4 positions.

He plays for Colorado. That’s really why we drafted him. I know only 2 of you are reading these rationales anyway, and you both know Luis A is primed to take his new starting role and impress. His mediocre statistics are completely worth his eligibility at almost every position (no, he doesn’t catch yet). The only way this pick turns out badly for us is if Luis A winds up in a platoon situation or benched and gets less than 500 AB’s. Otherwise, we like the way this guy fits in with our Vitamin C deficient squad. : )
74Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 21, 2006, 10:09
for Dave R
15.09 Aaron Harang, SP, Cin

I really wanted a MI here and would have taken Luis Gonzalez if he wasn't taken the pick before me. But in looking at the 1st 8 picks of the round, 5 SP's were taken so I decided to take one at this juncture, and with good reason as 3 more went off the board immediatley after.

Harang was the highest one left on my list. He argueably was the Reds best pitcher last year and deserved to win more than 11 games.

Aaron is only 27 and should have some room for improvement. If at worst he duplicats his ERA of .383 and WHIP of 1.266 and boosts his wins to 14-15, I think he is a great pick at this point
75I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 521191210
      Tue, Mar 21, 2006, 12:34
15.10 Brad Radke, SP, MIN
Third straight year I've drafted Brad in this format, and overall I've liked what I got, so I'm pretty happy to see him still here. Two years ago I spend an 18th round pick, and last year it was 9.01. I might not be expecting improvement from his the year, but at 33 I don't think I should expect his arm to fall off either. For the last 3 years he's kept his walks under 30 with 200+ IP. That's the type of control that gives this guy a lifetime WHIP of 1.25 over 2000+ IP. Keep em coming Brad.
76Jumpball
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 21, 2006, 14:50
15.11 Matt Morris, SP, SF

I couldn't resist taking another solid starter. I'm hoping that the change of scenery and a move to a pitcher's park will help Matt continue to improving his numbers -- and get closer to his numbers of 2003. 14-16 wins with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a K ratio of a little better than 6 per 9 innings would be good numbers to add to my team.
77Athletics Guy
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 21, 2006, 14:50
for Toral (pick acquired via trade)
15.12 Matt Clement, SP, BOS
Clement was one of a lump of pitchers I mentioned in 15.02, and he was available here to be my 4th starter. This may be a pick made with my heart, as I like Clement, like watching him pitch. He can be absolutely dominating, and then you can almost see him fall apart mentally. I guess that's not a great rationale for picking him....He has talent, the great slider, and if I have to take a risk I'll take a risk on talent. The Red Sox seem to have taken him off the block after making a trade and I feel he can contribute 15 wins, 170 Ks, and keep his ERA under 4, although I'm in a minority on that last point.
78Blue Hen
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 21, 2006, 14:50
15.13 Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX

Had a few thoughts here. Kinsler, Eckstein, some other MIs, Mussina, Sanders, Danys Baez, and David Bush were on my mind. Mussina was the most tempting because my starting pitchers are all injury risks. But as Michael Young has shown, it's pretty special to be a middle infielder for the Rangers. Worst case, Kinsler gets off to a slow start and drop him. It happened to Jhonny Peralta on a few teams. Best case, 20 steals, 15 homers, OBP around .370 and a ton of runs. I think it's realistic.

79Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Tue, Mar 21, 2006, 14:52
15.14 David Weathers, RP, CIN

Weathers stinks. STINKS!. But if he can pick up close to 20 saves and keep his WHIP below 10, I will be happy with this pick. While I regret falling behind in the closer battles, I could not justify using 2 of my first 8 picks to draft a pair of guaranteed closers, which is what it would have taken.
80CanEHdian Pride
      ID: 161101820
      Thu, Mar 23, 2006, 07:25
for hubble

15.15 Preston Wilson, OF, HOU

Same as with Francoeur and Gibbons, i'm trying to catch up on the RBI and SLG. Wilson seem to have an awesome year every 3 season and guess what? Last awesome season was in 2003.... 2003+3= ... ... ... 2006!!! :) Ok ok, that is not that much of a reasoning, i'd like to fall back on the awesome spring training he is having, but he is not having one... he SO 15 times in 32 AB. So i'll rely on projection... The average call seem to be around 70R,85RBI, 0.800OPS... I'll take it since i need it... I considered Burgos (freshly labeled closer) and really hoped Aaron Harang would make it back to me.

81CanEHdian Pride
      ID: 161101820
      Thu, Mar 23, 2006, 07:31
15.16 J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL

Finally completed my infield at the end of the 15th round. I was determined not to reach for a SS and originally had planned to take Carlos Guillen if he had survived the 9th round. He didn't. I then set my sites on Khalil Greene and was set to take him with my mid 12th round pick. After thinking it over I decided to wait one more round and grabbed Bonderman. Greene didn't make it. My next target was Hardy. Hardy is 23 years old and has been solid, although not too much ahead of the curve at every level. I think that he was overwhelmed slightly last year and needed some big league ABs to get comfortable playing at this higher level. His post ASB splits showed a large improvement in OBP and a .500+ SLG. I think he showed more potential than Khalil Greene and could put up equal power numbers. Brewers have a solid young core of players and there isn't too much heat on Hardy this season so he should see a full season of ABs. A solid pick this late in the draft but some more MIs will need to be added to strengthen up the overall depth of my team. I expect a DYNO-MITE season from J.J.
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