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0 Subject: RIBC 2006 - Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 13:27

RIBC Managers: This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1jumpball
      Sustainer
      ID: 33050298
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 15:28
With the 11th and 22nd pick, I planned to land two hitters, with one being eligible at 2B or SS. The perfect plan would have been one of Young/Tejada, and one of Utley/Cabrera/Helton/Lee. I mentally scrapped that plan quickly when Ortiz fell to me at 11. At that point I knew that too many other managers had the same plan! As it turned out, I landed Ortiz and Figgins with ths first 2 picks, so I actually followed the plan -- just not with the players that I had targeted!
I had also planned to take a top reliever in the 3rd round. Last year I got Rivera with my 3.09 pick and figured I could land one of the top 3 with 3.11 this year. Alas, that was not to be as the top 6 closers were off the board before 3.11. I refused to reach for the 7th and took Halladay instead.

I beleive my best value picks were Zito and Lowry in the 9th and 11th rounds, along with Vidro in the 16th.
Let me have my 12th rounder back though -- I went for a catcher way too early.

There's a few teams that I like. KKB's really stood out above the crowd after the first 8 rounds -- I would have done things diffrently after that, but that's why we play the game! I'm also VERY envious of his 2 closers! Other teams that look good to me are Toral's, Guru's, cEHp's, and DaveR's. All of those seem to have good balance.
I'm curious to see how holt plays his catchers (LaRue and Valentin) -- does he have inside information of who's going to start each night? :-)

With this being the my 3rd year here, nothing surprises me any more. The early closer run may have surprised others, but it didn't surprise me -- I had a backup plan.
There were some decisions by managers that I didn't agree and there were some players drafted that I haven't even heard of, but that happens every year. I guess the biggest "surprise" to me was Ortiz being available at pick 11.

The first thing I'd do differently is to send Guru a list of 16 random numbers so I could have maybe drawn a slightly better draft position. In hindsight, I might have been better off getting Flash in round 5 and hope that Glaus would have made it back to me in round 6. But on the other hand, that means I wouldn't have Edmonds in my OF or I would have had to fill 3B later on. I wish I had waited on the catcher pick in round 12 (see above) -- I might regret the decision to not reach for the 74th tier closer in the 12th round (or get someone even more productive!). And finally, I might regret not researching my 22.06 pick a little better (see rationale thread).

One last comment: the scariest pick to make was 9.11, just because of it's label. (Zito took the honors)

I love the draft. Now let's get on to the season. I'm ready for the challenge!
2CanEHdian Pride
      ID: 392232614
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 16:39
My strategy is always to maintain balance throughout the draft. I wanted to address 2B early on and was hoping Utley would fall. I thought SP was deep enough that I could address later in the draft and I feel my core of pitchers is strong. I think I would have addressed the OF a little earlier on as it my be a need that I have to give some thought to as the season progresses if Rowand and Bradley disappoint. I think I did well and the end result is a good mix of power and speed on offense along with a strong and young group of pitchers with plenty of room for improvement over their 2005 numbers.

My favorite picks were Edwin Encarnacion because I think it was a great value and balanced up my team nicely. J.J. Hardy because I stuck to my guns and held off as long as I could while still bagging a very solid player and Konerko/Mora/Bonderman because I think I projected the results of my trade well and nailed all the players I was looking for at the right times.

Solid teams include JeffG, Toral, Chris, KKB.

Nothing really surprised me about the draft. I don't think there were any picks that weren't any trends completely out of the ordinary -- solid for the most part.

If I had to do it over again I probably would have went after a power bat in the OF earlier but I think this was one of my better drafts in any sport.

Thanks guys, it was fun.
3JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 16:53
My only objective going into the draft was to try to have a team that would be balanced in all 10 categories. Personally, I did not want to start the season with a team that would not be competitive and be out of the top half in any one category, I’d much rather have the flexibility to see what potential moves can be made during the season where I can judge the advances that move can make in helping my overall score (for example of 4 of us are within 10 runs of each other, but I had a 20 RBI cushion before dropping a couple of spots, I would see if I can work out a move accordingly). We’ll see.

So along those lines, I took last years RIBC standings, although I wish I had others saved, and looked at the score that scored an 11 in each. Those numbers were 948 RBI, 131 SB, 968 R, .347 OBP, and .450 SLG for hitting. For pitching they were 87 W, 97 S, 3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 1054 K. The numbers for RIBC 2004 were pretty close for the number 11 ranking, except for the averages which were all much higher, I’ll attribute that to ’04 being the last year of the juice. According to Rototimes free projections, the only ones I had other than ESPN.com which only project 5x5, I am pretty much there. For hitting, my drafted starters exceeded these targets in every category but SB, where I am 15 off. For pitching, not counting the last 3 pitchers I drafted, I am only significantly shy in saves by 33, and just around all the other numbers.

Like last season in AAA, I figured I’d follow my pattern of selecting one starting pitcher in each group of 5 rounds. Other than that, I tried to take something I learned from AAA the hard way was that I was going to avoid players who were still injury questionable. Last year I took Wood, Percival, Sweeney, Ordonez, and Pettitte, and Juan Gonzalez. The results were mixed when they actually played, but as a group they occupied too much time on my roster while on the DL. We have too small a bench to have this be a workable approach. This season, Jim Thome is the only one I drafted where returning from an injury could be a DL issue. Last year I was so 'under' on all of the games played counts, that it could have made a significant difference in the offensive counting stats.

The only other game plan I had with the draft position 7, was I figured in that position I would not miss a closer run. Of course I sort of missed it by choice when I decided to select Aramis Ramirez instead of a closer after 4 had already been chosen consecutively immediately before my 3rd round pick, and then Grady Sizemore after another 5 flew off the board. When I finally picked Derrick Turnbow, 13 closers were already taken. So Sizemore and Ramirez become picks I will closely be watching to keep me from second guessing myself.

I do not know if I have a favorite pick. I am hopeful in two youngsters. Conor Jackson, selected in the 17th round could have numbers comparable with first basemen drafter much higher, and Zach Duke taken in the 10th could become a top tier starter. For do-over, definitely round 8 Chad Orvella, who I am very concerned about, as I discussed in my round 25 rationale. For the one who got away, every round from 18 to 21, I was thinking about Todd Walker (taken 24.05 by AG), but was concerned by trade rumors leading to limited PT. I was not planning on taking more than the 3 slots needed in the 2B/SS/MI group so wanted to start with only definitive starters.

Which teams look good on paper? Well, last year after the draft I remember not thinking much of Hubble’s team, and he and Trip ran away with things. So what do I know? I think Chris and did a good job dealing with position with scarcity and still show balance. Toral looks strong. TB/MC and jumpball look like they should contend as long as their key veteran players find that fountain of youth. One would think the ban on amphetamines this season will hurt the older players more than the younger as the season progresses. KKB and AG have the strong pitching.

I certainly am looking forward to this season. Good draft. Good luck to all.
4Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 17:25
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Every draft is situational, but my general plan is:
- Defer on starting pitching unless one is screaming at me to be taken (no one was)
- Aim for catchers and middle infielders when I can get them without too much of a stretch
- Take a couple of closers in the first 8 rounds, and maybe get a third if a quality option is available.

I guess I accomplished that, although I wasn't able to nail down a third closer. I could have taken Foulke in round 8, but that just didn't seem like a good risk/reward alternative, and I was happy to land Loretta with that pick instead.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I like Victor Martinez, especially if he gets as much PT this year as Cleveland has suggested. I hear they are hoping to use him at both DH and 1B this year on days when he isn’t catching.

Martinez is also a vulnerability, though, because if he gets injured, I have no backup at catcher. Stay healthy, Victor!

I’d like a “do-over” for Wily Mo Pena, who was traded a day after I took him and will probably get a lot fewer ABs than I had planned on. In hindsight, I wish I would have traded that pick to AG, who was hot after Mike Lowell.

3B seemed to get away from me this year. Zimmerman may have been a stretch in round 15, but I must confess I was starting to panic. Youkilis in round 18 could turn out to be a nice pick, or could be a total waste, the way Boston has been accumulating extra hitters this spring. I fear a platoon, in spite of what the team has been saying.

My pitching has a number of speculative picks, especially McCarthy and Papelbon. Those could be very nice additions, or early free agents.

I’m already out of it in steals. That wasn’t the plan; it just happened. But I think in a competitive draft like this, every team is likely to come up short somewhere.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Based on my number crunching, JeffG and IAC look very strong. Jumpball has a lot of pitching to pick from, and if he sits the right guys on the right days, there is potential for a whole that is better than the sum of the parts.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I wasn’t expecting to run dry on third basemen so early. I also thought that the top middle relievers might start disappearing earlier, but I think some of that was because there just aren’t that many “sure things” in that category this year.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I must confess that I hadn’t successfully thought through my choice of draft order. Thinking that Santana might slip to #6 was absurd, and in hindsight, picking #9-10 would probably have been a better choice, at least for the first couple of rounds. I might have still landed Bay in round 1 (or maybe David Wright), and could have potentially gotten someone like Figgins in Round 2. However, as it turned out, I’m not unhappy with Victor Martinez as my second rounder – although I didn’t really plan that in advance. I wish I could say that was the master plan, but instead, it just seemed like the thing to do at the time.

5Dave R
      Dude
      ID: 3010361110
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 17:37
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

First choice was the draft slot and I normally try and take the highest spot available. As it turned out, that was 9th. I fully intended to start with 2 quality hitters and I think I accomplished that with Wright and Hafner. After that to keep as balanced a team as possible.

I think I managed to do that and feel I did a good job in not picking up players that damage the % cats. I think those are more difficult to try and compensate for as the season progresses.



2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I'm pretty high on Felix Hernandez and very satisfied to pick up Nathan ealry after the closer run started.

I also have a hunch that Holliday and Granderson could be good value as the season unfolds. Lets hope so

I may regret opting for Wright when David Ortiz was still on the board.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?


I think Guru's team overall looks real strong if he can overcome lack of speed, and make up what appears at this point to be a little lacking in wins
. I like JeffG, Jumpball and Toral's teams also.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I can't really say anything surprised my, maybe that the run on closers started as early as it did. I certainly have learned after 3 RIHC drafts not to expect any players to slide below the approximate time they should be taken and no one really did in my opinion.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Actullay nothing that really stands out. I'm pretty happy with my draft, but time will show if I'm just overly optomistic. There will obviously be a few key picks that need to pan out for all of us, a need to avoid injuries to key players, and maybe some good old fashion luck to have a successful season.

Good luck to all,, it's be a fun draft and thanks to Guru, as always for his time and energy to run all of this.
6Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 18:52
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I took the 14th overall pick with the idea of grabbing a SS and a 2B with my first two picks leaving me able to focus on the best available players after that. I ended up grabbing Crawford and Derrek Lee instead. I had Crawford ranked as the #4 player overall and felt that I couldn't pass him up. Lee went in the first round in every other RIBC league. If I had stuck with my inital strategy I would have started off with Michael Young and Chone Figgins. I then selected Furcal in the fourth round, which I though was a semi-reach but looking over whom I would have taken if I already had a SS, it would have been Carlos Delgado. If I had selected Figgins in the 2nd round instead of taking Brian Roberts in the 5th, I would have probably taken Johnny Damon. The decision ended up being Crawford, Lee, Furcal and Roberts or Young, Figgins, Delgado and Damon. If I were proposed that trade I would see it as a complete wash and wonder why even bother.

I am glad that I did stick to the decision to complete my middle infield early. The rest of my strategy was to stick to best player available in the early rounds. This left me lacking in closers, but I feel that I was able to compensate somewhat in my late round selections. While I don't have any weaknesses at any specific position, I have noticed that I am in the back of the pack for SLG and OBP but have a large lead in the steals department. Hopefully I can work some trades out down the line. Overall I am satisfied with my team, and while I feel like I had a draft that will keep me here next year (3rd through 6th place) right now I am not a contender (1st or 2nd). My goal is not just to stick around though, so I will need to do some dealing.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorites: Patterson (10th), Valverde 6th, and Vernon Wells 8th

Do-overs: The jury is still out on Liriano in the 12th.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

KKB has a solid squad as does Dave R. Blue Hen would look good as well with a healthy Prior (if there is such a thing).

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

The closer reaches will never cease to amaze me. This a an astute bunch of drafters and it shows.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I would have paid more attention to where I was at in the batting % categories.
7I_AM_CANADIAN
      ID: 521191210
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 18:57
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I used to be a chess coach for kids during the summer; when I would ask them, "What exactly was you're plan with that move?" More often than not, I got a lot of, "It looked like a good move?!" This just doesn't fly in chess. It's all about ballances and imballances, and being able to formulate a plan based upon the strengths on the board that YOUR team possess. Having a bad plan and sticking to it, is better than playing with no plan at all.

Thus when I was asked to take part in this years RIBC, I inniatially declined because I knew that I wouldn't have the time that I've offered to previous years competitions. After a little reflection, I decided that having done most of the ground work for "our league settings", and having had practical experience in previous years, that maybe I could get by with just "basic research" (minor #s crunching, and formulating a lax cheatsheet [position by position]).

The plan: Grab CI and MI often and early. If a closer run starts, ride it, and if possible finnish with 3 closers that you're comfortable will get you to 100 saves. Grab hitters before pitchers even though each one has 5 CATs that give equal value. Don't take a catcher, till he's become an amazing value for the draft selection.

Overall, I got most of what I wanted accomplished. I varied from the plan mainly to pick up RJ @ 4.07 which gave my team extra ballance.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favs:
Miguel Cabrera - Didn't want him to get outa the first round. 3B eligibility made him a "must have" for me.
Carlos Lee - The power CATs usually escape me every year, cause most managers would overpay for them. Somehow Carlos lasted till 5.10 this year... needed that early padding.

Do overs?:
I don't have any... yet!

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Guru - Looks strong as usual, even though I don't agree with VMart in 2nd.
SANFORDORS - Didn't overpay for SP, and drafted mainy a MR (I liked that). 2nd Closer could be more solid, and since DH isn't a "draftable" position, felt grabed UTIL too early.
Trip - The draft strategy looks solid... but their seem to be a lot of questionable picks (too many?)

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Only how quickly 1st Basemen we're going off the board.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

No... cause the wholes I have are calculated ones. Would I have reached for a weak position I have, it'd be trading it off for a weakness somewhere else.

I would also, like to thank, Guru especially, for once again organizing a fun draft. KKB for providing us with a great drafting software. To all the managers who did they're research in order to continue to make this one of the most competitive leagues I know of.
8Athletics Guy
      ID: 43219110
      Sun, Mar 26, 2006, 23:43
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I wanted to start off the draft with hitting, more specifically a 5-tool player. I chose my draft spot hoping for either Abreu, Bay or Wright to be there. And as it turns out, I was able to get my #1 guy. The strategy going into the draft was to draft hitting early on and focus on pitching later, since that was the deepest position. However, I found myself drafting Pedro Martinez and Carlos Zambrano with picks 2 and 3 because they seemed to be good value picks at the time. Looking at my lineup, I'm satisfied with who I have. I have a good blend of speed and power and nobody sticks out as an OBP-killer. Pitching looks, as long as Pedro doesn't miss too much time.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

My favorite picks were Ryan Howard (5.12) and Jorge Posada (11.05) because I think those 2 will perform really well considering where they were drafted. The same could be said for Mike Lowell, but I probably gave up a bit too much for him. And seeing as how it's Toral I traded with, that trade will probably turn out to be terrible. Last season, I traded with Toral to move up and let's just say Pedro Feliz wasn't worth it.
If I could do things over, I might have taken a closer instead of picking up Zambrano or Delgado. I have the league's oldest closers in Gordon and Benitez so I'm a bit shaky there. I could have anywhere from 20-75 saves.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I see a lot of teams that are balanced really well , but Toral's team really stands out. I like his the most (even more than my own) because he has a lot of the players I wanted throughout the draft. Guru's team looks good too, but I found it odd that he seemed to punt SBs after starting the draft with a 5-tool player in Jason Bay. Regardless, the team still looks like a contender.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I was really surprised by where some of the base stealers were taken. It seemed like if you needed speed, you had to really reach for it. The first closer run also caught me off guard. I was expecting it to start about a round later. I managed to get 2 closers, but they aren't ones I feel too comfortable with, so I wish i saw that coming.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Not necessarily something I would do different, but I wish I didn't fill my bench with inactive players like Wade Miller and Delmon Young. Last season, I had a couple early (and major) injuries, along with the 2-3 DL players I had drafted. It really hurt me as my team really had no flexibility. I told myself I needed to avoid that. But once again, I'm putting myself in the same situation.
9Hubble
      ID: 01212716
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 01:02
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I picked the 15th slot with a specific strategy in mind, I wanted to secure infield (possibly 2B and SS) with my first 2 picks (1.15 & 2.02) plus I thought that the closer run would be at the end of round 3 so I would be able to grab 2 quality closers with my 3rd and 4th pick (3.15 + 4.02). After that it was all about filling the gaps with the best player available while staying away of the SP until round 10 or so.

All went well with my 1st rounder Michael Young, I had secured SS and all was according to the plan. I took Beltran as 2nd rounder (pick with major upside) and I had to trade up to be able to grab K-Rod half a round earlier than I thought I would. At 4.02, only Chad Cordero and Hudson Street were still available and didn’t want to reach that much. Did I stay away from SP before round 10? ... well I took 4. doh! But I believe they were worth it, and decided to go strong SP instead.

Picking at the end of the draft was real hard... (I actually choose that so I can’t complain!) Since I had really nasty work schedule picking at the end was the easiest for me. I taught I could start the runs instead of being caught by them.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I don’t really have picks that I feel are major steal... But I think Jason Schmidt and Curt Schilling could prove real valuable if they pitch like they use to. I trust Schmidt might actually do that, while Schilling probably won’t. No pick I would actually take back... even in insight. Only injuries or impossible-to-foresee collapses from a player would make any of my pick look real bad.

Thinking real hard about it... maybe I over-paid for Juan Pierre... but heck 50 SB, and perhaps 100+R sure helps. Is it 3.15 worthy? I don’t know.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I usually take time to deeply analyze every single team, but I just didn’t have time yet... so I’ll just go on my gut feeling. In no particular order, I like Toral’s (3 strong SP, and a bunch of closer-trade-bait RP... it could work out, or not at all. Not extraordinary but really solid offensive. Well balanced team) KKB’s even if took 3 pitchers with 4 first pick managed to secure a real good offense and could be a contender if his other SP chip in. Sanfordors, I_A_C, hum... you know what, all team look good each having little weaknesses... I’ll really need to go deeper and I will get back to you all about that point in a more intelligent and structured way when I get some spare time.

First glance: Toral, KKB, Sanfordors

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Well the closer run started half a round earlier than I thought and that shook me a little.

My wife was also surprised how I wouldn’t stop swearing. When I came back from work, and log in to make my pick, my Q’s were always almost always depleted... so all of you with no exception were called bastard or some other nasty French word...

Scott Shield was on my “must get” list and TB took him 13.08... faster than me. I also thought that I could get away with Biggio once again this year...

I believe few players did slip... I can recall 2: Carlos Lee (5.10) Aaron Harang (15.09)

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Not pick 15th...

We all make choices when it comes to decide what is going to be our team weaknesses. Last year I had to shop for SP on the F/A and manage some trades to strengthen my pitching crew it worked out pretty good. This year I made many picks that I would classify as medium risk/high reward. Beltran, Schmidt, Schilling, Kerry Wood, Devine. I’m usually an active trader... I drafted accordingly... I don’t think I have much injury prone players (except Burnett and the already-on-DL Mr. Wood and Pavano) and I know what I’ll need to improve.

I too wanna thank Guru and Fred... Drafting is time consuming, so I imagine commishing ...

OTC is simply awesome.

10KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 152162422
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 09:17
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Like JeffG, I decided to look back and find out what it took to win each category in the previous 2 RIBCs. What I came up with was 1080 R, 1080 RBI, 180 SB, .360 OBP, .480 SLG, 99 W, 113 Sv, 1163 K, 3.48 ERA, 1.200 WHIP.

I knew it would be difficult (impossible?) to reach those levels for every category given the manager talent and the depth of the league, so I went into the draft looking to balance my roster as much as I could across each category, aiming for 100% of the needed stats, but sacrificing when needed.

Like last year, I took the 3rd round pick. Unlike last year, I didn't try to solidify my MI with my first two picks. I honestly didn't have a plan going into the draft except to maximize my stats according to what I felt was necessary to win the league. Because of that, I took Santana with the 3rd overall (and subsequently had Guru looking for trade offers). Santana's stats allowed me to look elsewhere for a LONG time before I felt I needed to take another SP (12th round, Jon Lieber).

I certainly didn't plan on taking 3 pitchers with my first 4 picks as I usually do well in pitching and not so well in hitting, thus I try to concentrate on hitting early in the draft. However, grabbing Rivera and Izzy allowed me to maintain super low pitching ratios and after the 4th round I took just 1 pitcher in the next 10 rounds.

In the end, I got a "starting roster" that by my own projections will achieve 906.3% out of 1000% (100% for each category). I've put my projections into last year's standings and it shows me winning the league by one point. Of course, I'm a realist and I subscribe to the saying of, "you can't win a league with your draft, but you can certainly lose one." So, in the end, I think my draft goes a long way towards preventing me from losing. And in that regards, I feel I successfully executed my strategy.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorites: I really like getting Jose Guillen in the 16th round. If he can stay out of the doghouse, he should be able to contribute mightly to my team. I still need to figure out if I want to sit him when WAS's on the road, though. I like Lofton in the 18th for speed and Lo Duca in the 23rd for Johjima Insurance. Oh, and having Santana on my team makes me happy. :)

Do-Overs: I don't feel all that great about Iguchi and Alou. No particular reason, but the two have just never stood out in my mind as guys I'd want on my fantasy team. Their stats say that they'll work just fine on my team, but if I had it to do all over again, I'd probably pick two guys I just felt more comfortable about having on my team.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I haven't run the stats according to my projections on every team (I'll be doing that and posting the results for fun/discussion), but at a quick glance I like jumpball's and Trip's teams.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The fact that I started a closer run at the start of the third round with my Rivera selection. In past drafts, the early selection of a top-tier closer has been followed by maybe another top-tier closer or two, but to start an actual closer run that early caught me completely off guard. I suppose the only nice thing about it is that I'm the one that started it, so I didn't get caught without a top-tier closer.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Honestly, outside of maybe picking someone other than Iguchi or Alou, no. I went in with what I felt was the most solid strategy I've had for a draft and managed to execute it. My weakest categories sit at 71.6%, 74.0%, and 80.8%. All my other categories are at, or above, 90.9%, with 3 categories over 100%. I feel I have a balanced team and didn't need to sacrifice any categories to make gains in other categories. This is probably the best I've felt about a team I've drafted going into a baseball season. Even if I don't win, at least I feel good about where I started.
11KrazyKoalaBears
      ID: 152162422
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 09:19
Of course, as soon as I say I like my Guillen pick, I read that he might not be ready to go for Opening Day. Sheesh!
12blue hen
      ID: 38135621
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 12:19
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Risk risk risk. Followed by risk, with a topping of risk. As Chris put it "If all your gambles come through, you'll win by 20." Sometimes, the risks don't pan out. Prior and Giambi in 2004 led to a 14th place RIBC finish. But gambling on those same two in the second half of 2005 is what got me here. I planned to go all out and take as many chances as possible.

For the first round, I had two value picks in mind. Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera. Once I saw the pick order, I knew even Cabrera was a longshot. So, natually, I went with the same pick, Todd Helton and his .430 OBP in an off-year.

Some of my riskier picks include Giambi (see a trend), Prior (see a trend), Gagne, Jeremy Reed (already hurt), Kenny Rogers, Olly Perez, Daniel Cabrera, Bobby Jenks, Joe Mauer, Dave Dellucci, and Frank Thomas. In other words, everybody.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorites picks were Dunn (2nd), Atkins (9th), Giambi (6th), Thomas (18th) and Kinsler (15th). All of those players were gotten lower than expected, and I really feel that they add some firepower to the team. I may come to regret choosing Dunn over Figgins, for example, but I am really happy to have Dunn's patience and power on my side.

My least favorite pick is Mauer, because it seems way too early to take a catcher. Granted, Victor Martinez went several rounds earlier, and Mauer is close to the same level. Plus, Chris, who is the reigning champion, took a catcher several picks later. I assume he knows something. I don't regret the picks themselves, but Jeremy Reed and Mark Prior both got injured within a day of joining my team. Those are the risks I spoke about.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Chris, naturally, is at the forefront. Some of his picks leave me wondering, but it's mostly wondering what he knows that I don't. He's earned that.

I also think that this is Guru's strongest draft out of his 3 RIBC drafts. In addition to grabbing a ton of talent, he also managed to do it with a few Indians along the way. Good for him.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Johan Santana going third. But not as much as Alfonzo Soriano going third last year. I was also surprised about the lack of love for Jason Giambi. I'll take him.

And say what you will about the closer run, it was MUCH earlier that it should have been.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Nothing. I'd probably have taken Brian Giles over Joe Mauer and then got Ramon Hernandez in round 18.
13Toral
      ID: 541029611
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 13:46
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I don't have one. I have a few maxims. Pick a rotation anchor in round 2 or 3. Get a completely solid MI early. Don't reach for pitching; they're too unpredictable, and there are gems available late. No shocks during the draft that caused me to change my non-plan.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I like my 1Bmen, Shelton at 10.15 and Sweeney at 12.15, and Heilman at 19.12. Piazza was too early at 17.02, and when I picked a backup C I goofed it up with 25.02 Estrada. I should have waited till round 24 to pick one.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I saw few steals or reaches during the draft so start with the presumption that all teams have a chance. Eyeballing the rosters, I like the teams of JeffG, jumpball and KKB. I'm neutral about my own; hope to finish in the top half. I don't underestimate Chris or Mach, of course.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

How fast it went. How few surprising picks there were. The early closer run.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I need a method to transition between the first two-thirds of the draft, when an overall value list is necessary, and the late rounds, when sleepers, positional needs and breaking fantasy news dominate.
Sometime I'm going to have to try a "projected category totals" strategy, but I'm not ready for it this year. Hopefully I won't have to be relegated to AAA before I learn.

14TB
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 14:18
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
This is my second year playing roto baseball and partnering with Motley Crue. Last year I was very nervous before the draft because I didn't have any baseball experience to fall back on, other than the old days of smallworld. To overcome my shortfalls in this partnership, I did a lot of quick research and we had some predraft chat. This year was different. Not as much research and no real chat until after it was our turn to make our first pick. MC was out of town and we didn't get a chance to talk about this baseball season when I had to pick our draft spot. We didn't enter the draft with a secret strategy. Last year as the draft progressed, we found ourselves ranking our hitters based on OPS and pitchers based on K’s and good ratios. We kind of did the same thing for hitters this year, except we looked more at their position, insuring we filled our infield positions early. Umm pitchers, well we drafted some. Not that we drafted bad pitchers. We drafted three of the first 34 starters taken (Pettitte, Hudson, and Lee) and all will provide us wins and good whip/era. I am a little concerned with our K's, but we will just have to keep an eye on how we are doing versus the rest of the league. I think you have to look at how each draft unfolded and realize that regardless of strategy, there are 15 other managers who are making decisions/picks that can drastically alter what you planned to accomplish.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I've already said this in our first round rationale, but I am going to say it again. Last year we picked sixth hoping to get Tejada, but "settled" for Abreu. This year, 8th was the highest slot remaining. I knew the first 5 picks were all going to be gone before our turn, but after looking at mock drafts I was hoping Abreu would still be here. He was, but so was Tejada. Very tough decision to make. We chose Tejada because he could fill the tough SS position, while giving up the extra 25 stolen bases and higher OBP that Abreu offers. I really do like our first four choices, in that each player is very capable of scoring 100 runs and providing 100 RBI's, with two of them being our starting middle-infielders. Yes, they have to stay healthy to do this, but that's true for every team's picks.

I don't think we could "do any picks over" because it would have altered every pick thereafter. Am I happy with Reitsma at 11.08? Only if he gets us lots of saves. It would be easy in hindsight to say, we should have taken Guardado at 7.08 and grabbed a SP, instead of Lopez, at 8.09. We could have held off on the catcher position for a while longer. Instead of Hudson, Lopez and Wilkerson, maybe we have Guardado, Blanton, and Burnett. Okay, I relooked at our draft and do see one pick I would change. Duffy went way later in other drafts (I am going to comment on that in a bit). We picked him at 16.09 and probably could have gotten him in 3 or 4 more rounds. Scott Linebrink went right after we picked Duffy. We had Linebrink near the top of our queue since we picked Shields three rounds earlier. I do think Duffy is going to have a great year, but if we could have gotten him later on then maybe that would have been the way to go.

I do like our flexibility with our hitters. We have 6 hitters with multi-position eligibility. With a short bench like our league has, it will allow us to get a few extra games played throughout the year and it gives us a decent back-up plan when a starter is hurt.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I am not going to post my numbers and jinx our team. Like other people, I keep an excel sheet with every player and every team and paste the players as they are drafted from a projections sheet. If the season fell out exactly like my draft projections (and his players stay healthy), I have A's Guy winning it all. Yes, it is pretty screwed up that we don't have the best team based on my projections, but then again, we all know that projections aren't going to come out 100% correct. He has good balance, hitting and pitching, with his biggest weakness being SLG% followed by OBP. Dave R and Jeff G also did a fairly good job staying very balanced. Other teams that look good to me are Guru, Toral, IAC, and Jumpball.

Before posting this I went back and relooked at every team's projections. I guess there are a lot of teams much closer when I take a deeper look. As an example, the gap I show between the team scoring 3 points in runs with the team scoring 8 points is only 16 runs. The gap I show between the team scoring 2 points for RBI's with the team scoring 10 points is 44. Those are just two examples that could make a world of difference in the standings.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The biggest thing that surprised me were the number of times someone from this draft referenced where players were going in the qualifier drafts. I know when I was in AA drafting, I would take a look where the players we drafted went in other leagues, but it was more out of curiosity. It felt like several teams were deciding when to pull the trigger based on the other drafts. Maybe we should have looked at it more often and saved Duffy for later. I was a little surprised on how long a couple players lasted (Blue Hen never emailed me back on why they stuck around so long), but overall I thought the draft picks made were in line with my projections.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I think I would have paid a little more attention to our projected strikeouts earlier. We know what our strengths and weaknesses are. Early in the draft I took a look at what we needed to win our league last year and compared our league to the RIFC results. Mostly similar. In our league last year only 4 teams scored over a thousand runs, 5 in the RIBC. One team had over 1000 RBI's in both leagues. Only 8 teams had over 110 stolen bases, 9 in RIBC. 4 teams had a .350 OBP, only one in RIBC. 6 teams in both leagues had a .450 SLG. I did the same comparison for pitching and then took a look at our team. I feel pretty good about our draft and think we can compete with this team.
15Motley Crue
      Sherpa
      ID: 031811922
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 15:19
(MC emailed me his recap and I should have waited and put both together....TB)

What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

The most important goal we had was to do things that would ensure Hubble exclaimed “Bastard” out loud at his computer each time he logged in, and I think we did a nice job of that this year.

We won an AA league last year based on solid hitting. We dominated percentage categories, runs, and RBI, while scraping by on steals. We looked to duplicate this sort of result this year by taking solid hitters early in the draft.

When our pick in the draft draft came up, #8 was the highest pick left, and we wanted to make sure we got someone with 4- or 5-tool ability. So we took the highest spot. Tejada would not have been available at 2.09 and we knew this. I wanted him badly as I expect marked improvements over every one of his categories from last season. The guy is an offensive stud year in and year out, and he had a down year last year. His pride won’t let that sit well with him.

In our experience, pitching can be had later in the game, and it was. We may get annihilated on saves, but I believe our pitching staff has the kinds of guys that will have us competing in the other 4 categories. TB is also a master sage when it comes to pitcher FA and waiver pickups.

What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I liked getting Javy Lopez at 8.09. He is getting old now, but he won’t catch more than once a week with Ramon Hernandez on the team. If Javy can stay healthy, he could play 150+ games at 1B, C, and DH. Not many guys are eligible at C and can get you 550 AB’s. I really think this pick could turn out to be one of our best. And what’s that sound? Oh yeah, impending free agency knocking on the door. What better motivation is there than that?

I also felt good getting Wilkerson at 9.08, mostly because I heard some grumbling from other managers that he’d been targetted around there. TB gets all the credit for that pick—although I love the fact that we have a former Gator on the team I can root for.

I know everyone thinks we reached for Matsui, Hudson, Shields, Duffy, and probably Clemens. That’s fine. My philosophy in this game is to reach for players that we feel very good about, even if NO ONE else would have taken them at that point. I think we are fairly good evaluators of risk and potential performance, and I am happy with where we picked all of those guys.

Clemens coming back to play this season could turn the TB/MC express into a powerhouse. We’ll see if that 17th round choice was genius or folly. There really is no in-between.

What surprised you most about the draft?

Not a surprise but an observation.
I like drafting fantasy football players better. A 20th rounder in fantasy football could do something great for your team. By the time we got to the 20th round in this draft, I was trying to learn some players I’d never heard of and I wished that I could have kept it that way. There is more of a challenge with such a big roster, I’ll admit. But when all 3 Baltimore CF candidates get drafted, yikes.

If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I’d have been a better partner and not dumped so much of the Admin work on TB. He has enough going on. I should have written a few more rationales.

Maybe we should have just totally dumped saves and gone for hitting, SP’s, and middle relievers. I mean, Reitsma and Hawkins aren’t exactly an intimidating duo for garnering saves. Even if Reitsma turns out to be a closer extrodinaire this season, and Hawkins winds up closing much of the season for Baltimore (unlikely), we might get 60 saves out of them. And that isn’t enough to be very competitive among the other teams in the RIBC.

Whatever. We like a challenge.
16Hubble
      ID: 56213211
      Mon, Mar 27, 2006, 16:46
"I’d have been a better partner"

for some reason i kept reading "i wish i had a better partner"... and thought cool they are already fighting each other...
17Chris
      ID: 1410141221
      Tue, Mar 28, 2006, 14:10
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

As last year, my strategy was to take care of position scarcity early, and try to cobble together my SP/OF with whatever was left. Also like last year, I targeted certain players and tried to decide when to take them. While I feel fairly solid about my SP, a lot of the OF's that I expected to slip went in a flurry, and I am less than satisfied with my OF. Overall, I think I built a team that isn't quite as good as last year's, but is more balanced. I'm hoping the points I gain in wins and saves(where I combined to score 4 points last year) balance out the points I lose in the other categories.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I feel like I dropped the ball early in the draft, when I didn't get either of the people I wanted with my first 2 picks(Johan or VMart). Consequently, I felt like I was playing catchup throughout the rest of the draft. However, I think my middle rounds brought me back into it.

Favorite picks:
Huston Street 4.02(a top 3 closer this year in my opinion)
Morgan Ensberg 4.12(a 950 OPS guy on a team that sorely needed one)
Dan Haren 9.05(think he can win 18 this year)
Scott Kazmir 9.12(a stud in the making)
Erik Bedard 10.12(one of my favorite players)
Dan Johnson 11.12(I think he will OPS 875+ this year)
Casey Kotchman 13.05(ditto)
Esteban Loaiza 15.05(a good source of wins and k's this year)
David Bush 17.05(expecting big things from him this year)
Brad Hawpe 18.12(felt a lot more comfortable with my OF when he slipped back to me, he won't get a ton of AB's, but I think he'll hit)

Least Favorite Picks
1.05 Vlad Guerrero(not that Vlad isn't great, but Johan at pick 5 would be a value pick, whereas Vlad isn't)
2.12 Jose Reyes(my queue evaporated before this pick, so I took a poor man's Figgins)
6.02 Jason Varitek(I wanted Mauer, but had to settle for a 34 year old catcher...not good)
14.12 Matt Murton(a real reach, but again, my OF queue just disappeared between my last pick and this one)
16.12 Reggie Sanders(injury risk, age risk, KC risk, not my type of player at all)

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

holt's team looks solid, aside from the injury risks in the OF, but my experience with him last year is he'll find productive guys to replace them when they get hurt.

Toral's team always has me worried, he has strengths and weaknesses just like everybody else, but he's a superior manager.

KKB's team looks to me like the favorite to win the league. Good balance throughout, nice mix of youth and veterans, decent pitching with an ace to lead it.

jumpball's team is solid, but doesn't have a closer. Speaking from the experience of last year, you will find yourself handcuffed and unable to gain all the points you need to stay on top. I do think he'll be top 5, however.

AG's team, as always, is loaded with solid veterans. I'll never bet against a top 3 finish from him.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

The OF run in the 13th-14th round, people willing to let me trade down

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I'd take any draft spot other than 5th. Either earlier or later would've been fine, but I ended up missing guys I wanted in BOTH rounds. Tough to win when you botch your first 2 picks.
18Trip
      Leader
      ID: 13961611
      Sat, Oct 07, 2006, 11:40
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