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0 Subject: "Finally, an Error-Free Way to Measure Fielding"

Posted by: Wilmer McLean
- [38328112] Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 02:39

From the NY Times: (registration may be required)

Finally, an Error-Free Way to Measure Fielding

Though Neanderthal announcers and executives continue to rate defenders based on errors and fielding percentage (the rate at which errors are not made), people have recognized since the 1870's how flawed these numbers are. A fielder's job is not to avoid errors, but to make as many plays as possible. Even a hopeless perfectionist must admit that it's worth having a left fielder drop one ball for a two-base error if he also reaches nine others that another would not, saving nine doubles.

Problem is, no statistics have come along to record, case by case, which fielders convert which batted balls into outs.

Baseball Info Solutions is doing just that. By watching video of every major league game for the last three seasons and assessing the speed and location of every hit on an 8000-pixel grid, it has assembled a vast database of each fielder's performance. The scoring system is simple: If a fielder converts a chance that the typical fielder converts 70 percent of the time, he gets a +0.3; if he fails on what is a 20 percent shot, he gets a –0.2. The season total of these figures estimates how many aggregate outs the fielder accounted for above or below average.

Rowand, who impressed on defense last season with few meaningful statistics to show for it, actually led all major league outfielders in 2005 with a +30, meaning he saved the equivalent of 30 singles and extra-base hits from falling in the outfield. On offense, that would translate to 60 points in batting average and about 100 points in slugging percentage. The three Gold Glove winners — Vernon Wells (+4), Torii Hunter (+5) or Ichiro Suzuki (+7) — did not fare nearly as well.


...

After distributing this data only to clubs for three years, Dewan has published it in "The Fielding Bible" (Acta Sports), which includes other new fielding measures, like the extra bases taken off outfielders' arms and the percentage of bunts fielded successfully by first and third basemen.

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From a site about "The Fielding Bible":

The Fielding Bible includes:

In-Depth Analysis by Position – How do MLB players really stack up against each other defensively? An innovative new Plus/Minus System analyzes players position-by-position and provides top-to-bottom rankings.

Where Hits Landed – This allows a team to compare their defense point-by-point against other MLB teams.

Other Special Features – Uniquely designed analysis to determine the best corner infield defenders against the bunt, the best middle infielders on the double play and the best outfield throwing arms. Plus Bill James’s brand new Relative Range Factors and John Dewan’s newly designed Zone Ratings!


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1Khahan
      ID: 372243113
      Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 08:50
Interesting article and statistic.
I wonder, do they take into account different fielder shifts? Size of various fields?

Or is all that ignored? Do they put a circle around each player, no matter where he is, and any ball touching that cirlce is counted?

Is the circle the same size for different players at the same position?

That seems to give a very rudimentary intro on how they calculate the rates. But it doesn't really tell us much on how that gather the info.
2The Treasonists
      ID: 571192610
      Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 09:54
Manny's circle is huge, or tiny. Not sure which, I just figured there was a joke in there somewhere.
3holt
      ID: 45229226
      Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 20:52
correct me if I'm wrong, but i don't think they put a circle around the player. they just consider zones of the field. so if an OF is cheating and playing shallow and a fly ball drops behind him then it's probably held against him. so a smart player that knows how to position himself well can help himself greatly in these ratings, and an otherwise great defensive player can hurt himself in these ratings if he doesn't postion himself well.
4holt
      ID: 45229226
      Sun, Apr 02, 2006, 20:56
i haven't read the book but I've read some reviews of it. ballpark factors are looked into but I'm not sure how they are applied. I saw some statistics regarding certain parks that had high numbers of OF gap hits, and high numbers of hits between short and 3rd, for example.
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