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0 Subject: Position Scarcity

Posted by: Khahan
- [3442127] Tue, May 16, 2006, 13:46

Position scarcity is one of those tricky aspects of fantasy baseball. It boils down to: the pool of talent at a given position is very thin, so the better players at that position get bumped up in value.

In recent years, we have seen position scarcity mostly at 2nd base and catcher. This year, there does not seem to be ANY scarcity trend, except maybe deep outfield. This flies in the face of everything we've learned about trading, drafting and evaluating players for the past decade.

Let's take a look at each position and top talent there for 2006:

Catcher: (often a problem)
Victor Martinez
Jason Varitek
Joe Mauer
There is then a drop, but you still have quality from the likes of Michael Barrett, Kenji Johjima, Brian McCann, Javy Lopez, Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Ramon Hernandez, Josh Willingham.

In the past, you had Posada, Piazza, Rodriguez. As they aged, you had Varitek on their level.

1st base (never a problem)
Albert Pujols
Jim Thome
Lance Berkman
Nick Swisher
Carlos Delgado
Jason Giambi
Adam Dunn
Chase Utley
David Ortiz
Paul Konerko
Ryan Howard
Mark Teixiera

This position has never been a problem for depth. Though last year and this year we are experiencing a 'changing of the guard' so to speak with guys like Helton falling in value while guys like Teix and Swisher are on the rise.

2nd base (traditional problem child)
Alfonso Soriano
Felipe Lopez
Chase Utley
Chone Figgins
Rickie Weeks
Dan Uggla
Tadahito Iguchi
Mike Lowell
Brian Roberts
Bill Hall
Jorge Cantu
Jeff Kent
Mark Loretta
Ian Kinsler

Even in a 12 team league, you can have a serviceable 2nd baseman and not feel bad about missing one of the top 3.

SS (occassionally a problem)
Michael Young
Miguel Tejada
Felipe Lopez
Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Derek Jeter
Carlos Guillen
Nomar Garciapparra
Rafael Furcal
Jimmy Rollins
Edgar Renteria
Johny Peralta
Bill Hall
Ian Kinsler

3rd base:
Alex Rodriguez
David Wright
Troy Glaus
Miguel Cabrera
Morgan Ensberg
Hank Blalock
Casey Blake
Chone Figgins
Joe Crede
Chad Tracy
Melvin Mora
Edwin Encarnacion
Scott Rolen
Chipper Jones
Aramis Ramirez

OF:
Too long to list for this, but we all know who they are.


So my question is this for trades this year and drafts in the next year:
Does position scarcity take a back seat to stat scarcity?

For example, SB is always a hot commodity. Consider that the top 10 SB leaders right now can play either SS or OF. Add in non-leaders who are expected to steal a ton this year (likely to get 25+) (for example: Furcal, Rollins, Soriano, Abreu, Beltran) and you are adding in a second baseman.

The support SB leaders almost all fall into those same 2 categories. Instead of a certain position being more valuable, does this recent trade suddenly make role players more valuable? Does it make stat leaders more valuable since stats are bunched up and can't easily be spread out?
1Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 14:06
You have to do a lot more work than simply figure out the number of servicible players at each position. Obviously, the 8th best 2B is not close in production to the 8th best 1B. Position scarcity is definitely very much a factor.
2Khahan
      ID: 3442127
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 14:14
However, in the past, if you waited too long for a second baseman, you were settling for around a .270 average w/ maybe 15 sb and a bunch of runs scored.

If you wait and 'settle' now for a Bill Hall you are looking at a .280 potential 20/20 player in the mid-late rounds.

Position scarcity is NOT the factor that has been in years past. Is it time the emphasis in value shifted from position to stats?

And, as far as scarcity goes, if I'm sitting on Brian McCann at C (who I got in round 14+ in the leagues where I have him. In one league I didn't even draft a catcher, but took McCann off the waiver wire) why should I sacrifice an arm and a leg to get the best player (victor martinez) just because he's the best at his position? In the past, shoring up a position such as catcher could boost your overall stats because you are suddenly getting more production.

Now, however, you are getting production from those late round picks.

I did not say we should ignore position scarcity. But is stat scarcity becoming more valuable? The reasoning is actually the opposite of position scarcity. If all Tier 1 players were 1st basemen, then the 1st basemen value drops a little. You can hold off and still get quality.

But if all the RBI producers are 3rd basemen and you grab a 3rd baseman that excels in runs scored and gets very few rbi, did you just hurt yourself in a stat?
3Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 14:56
Is it time the emphasis in value shifted from position to stats?

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I don't think I normally emphasize greater value to position. Position scarcity is a major factor to take into consideration each year during the draft and then as we ponder trades and other transactions. But obviously the stats of each player must still be weighed.

Perhaps I'm not quite getting you but the answer to your Brian McCann/Victor Martinez question has little to do with any generalization regarding position scarcity. You still have to consider the difference in production between the player(s) you give up and their replacement(s) and weigh that difference against the difference between Martinez and McCann.

I think if you bog yourself down in any generalized observations regarding overall position scarcity your unnecessarily clouding the issue.
4biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:15
These are good questions.

The short answer is that you need to take into BOTH position scarcity AND stat scarcity.

These change a bit from year to year, so every year my general methodology is:

First pair down the universe of players to those who are likely to be drafted. This is subjective. For a 14 team league, I probably only consider 16 catchers, but I might look at 25 first basemen and maybe 80 OFs.

Then I normalize what I project for each person's stats (subtract global mean and divide be SD) so that I know how good a player is (how much he will likely contribute based on my projections), for a particular stat, relative to all the other players.

I then add up all the normalized stats for each player for a total normalized score.

Then I calculate the average of the draftable players, at each position, and come up the a scarcity factor which I apply to all those with that position.

I then sell my scarcity factors for $6.35 each, and come in second with remarkable consistency.
5KM
      ID: 6448816
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:17
I would agree that in recent years some traditionally shallow positions have become less so. But as MTH said, that doesn't mean there is a generalized shift in drafting approaches. Four years ago I weighed positions versus stat scarcity with each pick. I still do that now. It just happens that with less position scarcity in certain positions, the raw stats take more precedence in my decision. The draft will never change from a general position v. stats weighing like this: Do I take the 90 25 100 .300 catcher now, or the 100 40 120 .310 OF right now, when I think I could get a 70 20 75 .290 catcher and an 80 35 100 .300 OF in a couple rounds. You are just finding better alternatives when passing up some 2B for a dominating on a numbers basis OF.
6blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:30
You telling me you wouldn't put Helton way ahead of, say, Nick Swisher? Man, no wonder I'm in last place in RIBC.

Personally, I think it's not a bad idea to get a guy like Chone Figgins, who gives you a scarce category from a scarce position.
7Khahan
      ID: 3442127
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:48
You telling me you wouldn't put Helton way ahead of, say, Nick Swisher? Man, no wonder I'm in last place in RIBC.

Not at all. I never said those lists were in any order. But, with the emergence of guys like Nick Swisher, are you going to use your round 2 pick on Helton at 1st base or will you grab a lesser player from a different position such as 2nd base? Surely there are justifiable 2nd round picks at SS (Reyes comes to mind now that he is hitting, Jeter is an all around player, Tejeda is realistically still out there in early round 2) (and for the sake of argument, simply assume you took neither positions in round 1)

And with that in mind, would you take Tejada or Reyes? Keeping in mind that if you take Tejada, you basically lose out on about 6 options for SB (Reyes, rollins, h. ramirez etc). Go back to the draft. You can nab Tejada (or even Michael Young) who have been the top 2 SS for the past 2 years or so. Do you take them knowing you'll be forced into picking an OF for speed? Or do you bypass them and hope to nab a rollins, reyes or hanley later in the draft?

That is position scarcity vs stat scarcity.


8KM
      ID: 6448816
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:54
I need a quick reaction to this trade proposal, for a non-keeper league:

I get: Rios and Verlander, for Hamels. Rios would replace Gibbons in my lineup. I don't know much about Rios, or why he's gone from dud to stud for the first 40 games.
9biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:56
I don't understand why a scarce category (SB) at a scarce position (SS) is any more valuable than getting your scarce cat filled ata non-scarce position (OF).
10Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 16:24
I like it. I'm always skeptical of rookie pitchers and I think Verlander is as highly touted as Hamels, if not more.

To be honest I really think Hamels is a flavor of the month. His minor league stats are very impressive but consider the sample size: Career-wise, he's a got 100ip in low-A, 16ip in high-A, 19ip in AA and 23ip in AAA this year.

Maybe he's that good but its a crapshoot in my opinion. Rios is another highly touted, former 'next big thing' from 2 or 3 years ago. They've been waiting for him to break out and some time after that for the power to come. Looks like its all coming together for him this year. I think some are still skeptical but I'm pretty sure he was Rotowire's top prospect in the game (certainly top 3 or 5) in '03 or '04.
11Stuck in the 60s
      Dude
      ID: 274132811
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 16:35
There is an anomoly this season at catcher. With Josh Willingham playing all the games (albeit in the outfield), and no other catcher coming close, Willingham demonstrates both positional and stat scarcity.

I'm not sure I remember anything like this before.

Don
12biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 17:10
Craig Wilson 2 years ago was the same deal.
13blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 17:10
What scarce cat does Willingham get you?

In RIBC, I drafted Helton with the #13 pick, and Dunn with the #20 pick. Later, I reached for Mauer in the 5th round. Essentially, I did it backwards. Jason Schmidt was around when I took Mauer, but I already had Prior and determined I needed some scarcity at that point. Granted, Mauer's been pretty great and so have Helton and Dunn, but it seems like I went for scarcity at the wrong time.
14Jeff
      ID: 324291616
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 17:29
how about A-rod moving to third.

anyway...... shouldn't this mean we just just value pitching more highly, with all the parity within positions. pick santana and halladay or carpenter in the first 2 rounds. then work through statistical scarcity.
15Khahan
      ID: 3442127
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 17:57
Jeff, that is what I'm getting at. I kind of left my focus off of pitchers. However, that is a good point. With top notch pitchers being a bit more difficult to get (only santana was regularly a round 1 pick this year compared to 3 pitchers 3-4 years ago) for Wins/era/whip, is that where our focus should shift?

Its funny that just the opposite has happened. Our focus has shifted away from pitchers in the first few rounds.
16blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, May 16, 2006, 18:59
I really struggled with pitching this year, in all leagues. Sure, Santana is great, but there was always some Peavy, Olly, Patterson, CZambrano, or even Zito that I could snag later. This year I missed the middle part, but managed to grab Olly (again, but on the other side of the coin) and Benson in a few leagues.
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