If any RIBC managers would like to post any parting reflections - your best moves, what you wish you'd done differently, etc. - be my guest.
I'd also like to see the final standings of the qualifying leagues. It's helpful to consolidate that info all in one thread, to facilitate decisions about next year.
1
Flying Polack Sustainer
ID: 378582811 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 10:04
Wow. Happy as can be with my #2 finish, but I really was shooting for #1. Hard to believe I finished where I did considering I was sitting in 12th place two months in. Excluding games through 5/31, I have 132 pts. Before that point, I had 74.
The Konerko - Cano/Huff swap was the start of the turnaround. Putz/Atkins - Crawford really got it going. All of my injuries hurt, but if it weren't for them, I wouldn't have have landed guys like DeRosa or Garko. The biggest injury hit I took ended up being Liriano. If John Patterson and Liriano had just been able to stay healthy I think I could have finished with 120+ points, but I still would have needed holt's team to implode.
I didn't publish my projections after the draft when I saw where I ended up ranking. I seriously overdrafted SBs and ended up at the bottom of the list in RBIs & SLG. I began trying to deal Crawford almost immediately after the draft, I just wish he didn't start out in the crapper, which put a hamper on my ability to trade him. I really do think that trade helped both me and BH.
Again, the league is the most competitive you can play in, and I would like to congratulate everyone (well, almost everyone) for their efforts. I knew IAC wasn't going to win it after post 88. Pleased as punch to beat him out for 2nd.
3
JeffG
ID: 146591911 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 11:48
First a chart. Here were the goals I shot for pre-draft (what I thought I’d need to get an ‘11’ in each category) my teams pre-season projections after the draft, and the actual results of my team:
Goal
Projection
Actual
League Rank
R
968
1008
1036
11
RBI
986
923
986
11
SB
131
114
92
3.5
OBP
0.347
0.349
0.357
13.5
SLG
0.45
0.475
0.473
13
W
87
80
89
13
Sv
97
63
55
4
K
1054
950
1057
7
ERA
3.69
3.52
4.43
3
WHIP
1.27
1.23
1.39
2.5
4
JeffG
ID: 146591911 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 11:49
From the chart, it is real easy to see what kept me out of the top tier, but solidly in the middle of the pack. On the offensive side, I cannot complain, my total of 52 ranking points was 4th best in the league. On the other side, my pitching total of 29.5 was the league’s third worst.
Part of my draft strategy was to find offensive players who could contribute positively in multiple categories without hurting much in others. I think I accomplished this because I feel like every batter I chose trough round 12 lived up to their draft position. My top picks did not disappoint (Manny 1, Ari Ramirez 3, Sizemore 4), and even though I strayed a little from my mid season objective to pick up a steals guy, instead to get those guys with the real offensive ‘upside’, my mid round picks all delivered (Thome 6, Polanco 9, Hunter 11, IRod 12). 17th round pickup Connor Jackson did much more than projected. Offensively speaking, in retrospect, I had a very successful draft. Mid and late season pickups like BJ Upton (11 steals in 6 weeks), and Shane Victorino (25 runs scored in games I had him active) kept me offensively competitive.
Of course, my pitching disappointed. By picking up solid contributors like Ari Ramirez and Grady Sizemore in the 3rd and 4th round, meant I let the closer run pass me by. So I ended up with “all-star” Derrick Turnbow in round 5 as a closer who was a second half bust, and I drafted D-Ray “closer” Chad Orvella with my 8th pick who after a poor start was eventually relegated to spend most of the season in the minors. Again, the gamble paid off in offense, but severely cost in pitching. I did not get value for each of my relievers, the ones who help the averages and the only ones to get you anywhere in the saves battle. Now, all of us can look back and realize that there were tons of saves to be picked up in the free agent and waiver pools, however, at times that meant those of us chasing saves had to be first on the Internet when the news broke of an opportunity to pick up saves from this pool. There were many in this league faster at this than I was. For me, that meant getting the left over relievers from the 100 loss Royals and Devil Rays - Joe Nelson, Elmer Dessens, Amborix Burgos and Scott McClung, these guys could really kill the pitching averages, all in the hopes for a few extra saves. Next year I’m not letting the closer run pass me by, I rather get a solid closer and worry less about the chase for saves, a solid closer will also be better on the averages. On the starter side, I picked Jake Peavy with my #2 pick, and although contributing with 200+ K’s, his other pitching numbers were well under expectations. My #7 pick Bartolo Colon had his own problems this season. Derek Lowe, my 15th pick ended up being a good pick up, but when two non strikeout pitchers like Lowe and Zach Duke are two of my top 3 innings users, it kept me in the middle of the K pack. I did a lot of starting pitching shuffling this season, with my best pickup being Scott Olson (in less than half a season on my roster, 100+ Ks, 6 Ws). There were a couple of trade opportunities presented to me to pick up quality starter to replace my disappointments, but none I thought worth the price.
Overall, I do not know what much I can improve on without impacting what I got lucky with this season, but there definitely are lessons learned. I think in drafting, it may make sense to wait on starting pitching, unless someone is really standing out at the time. Then again, to pick up Peavy, in round 2 my rationale stated I let Sheffield go, so it did kind of work out. Good in-season managing definitely is important (our drone finished way down in 16th), and being quick to pick up that hot free agent can win it for you, but in this format the draft is very key, and avoiding the busts makes a huge difference. I guess one thing I need to try next season is perhaps I can do more to evaluate trade opportunities, and throw some more offers out there. Last year in AAA my two mid season trades turned out to be very beneficial and can be directly attributed to my move up the food chain and into RIBC.
In closing, again I want to congratulate Holt for winning this, and saying nicely done to those who earned their spots back in RIBC next year. Thanks to everyone for being active in the league, because for me it is also fun when you play with people active on the boards - I do not think any of the qualifying leagues had much message board banter from mid-season on.
5
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 11:49
One word can pretty much sum up my entire season: Ugh!
Let's take this one step at a time...
THE DRAFT Like most drafts for an 8th place finisher, my draft had its highlights and its lowlights. Santana [1st round], Rollins [2nd round], Ramirez [21st round], and Millwood [15th round] were definitely the highlights. Joel Zumaya [25th round] and Paul Lo Duca [23rd round] were also very nice/helpful late-round pickups.
However, the lowlights were as bad as the highlights were good. Tracy [6th round] fell back to Earth and Hermida [9th round] and Gomes [11th round] were certifiable busts. Mueller [14th round], Jose Guillen [16th round], Bruce Chen [17th round], and Vargas [19th round] all did plenty to kill my team.
I felt good coming out of the draft, but looking back on it, I think I over-invested in "promising" talent as well as "reliable" talent. Some of the reliable guys weren't so reliable and there was just way too much promise to ever amount to much of anything. This was the first year I went that far out on the limb of "promising" talent, so I'll likely draw back on that a bit next year.
(MIS) MANAGEMENT Picking up Greg Norton, Pat Neshek, and Boof Bonser (gotta love the Twins comeback!) likely saved me from a much lower finish. They all contributed where I needed them to stop the bleeding the most. Adding Xavier Nady, Hideki Matsui, and Casey Blake also helped, even though the last 2 likely just saved me from the grips of JeffG for the short time they were on my roster.
Keeping Jose Guillen on my team for 225 AB (.658 OPS) and getting a higher ERA/WHIP from Leiber are just some of my many highlights of team mismanagement. Snell and Millwood also logged significant IP for me while posting a higher ERA than their real life ERa. Add on giving 229.1 IP to Vargas, Suppan (pre-ASB), Chen, Sele, Shields, and Loaiza and I was doing a great job of shooting myself in the foot.
NEXT YEAR There's always next year and I'll definitely sign up for one of the AAA leagues. There's no doubt that RIBC is the toughest league I compete in every year. Guys like Pat Neshek and Joel Zumaya don't have value in any other league and I love that. I'll certainly adjust my strategy a bit, but mostly in the middle rounds. I'm pretty happy with how my early round picks turned out and pretty pleased with my late round picks as well (3 of my last 5 picks were in my lineup most of the season). It was those middle rounds, where I was looking for that "promising" talent balanced with "veteran" talent, that I screwed up. From the 9th round to the 17th round, I dropped 5 of 9 picks and only got any decent performance out of Johjima, Alou, and Millwood. I used to go for just proven talent and I went for a lot of promising talent this year. Next year, I'll go back a bit to more proven talent, but Hanley Ramirez will always nag me to make sure I don't go TOO much with proven talent. Some of those rookies can turn out to be quite good.
6
Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 12:14
I went back to my preseason stat projections for my draft, just to see how things turned out. In total, my team hitting worked out surprising close to projected totals in the counting stats, but disappointing in the averages:
Draft projection: 995-989-60-.362-.471 (R-RBI-SB-OBP-SLG) Actual season: 987-1025-58-.353-.449
Only 3 players came in with a slugging pct materially better than projected: Overbay, Monroe, and Zimmerman. Bay and Victor Martinez came in as expected in every category except slugging. My biggest disappointments were Sexson & Peralta. Sexson had a horrid April, but was reasonably productive after then. Peralta was an underachiever throughout. Zimmerman and Youkilis were the most significant overachievers.
I did manage to avoid any material injuries to my hitters. In fact, only two undrafted players had a material number of AB on my team: Jose Valentin (289 AB) and Conine (202). No other undrafted hitter made a material contribution to the team.
Looking back at my draft, I probably should have taken David Ortiz with my 1st pick (instead of Jason Bay). In fact, the main reason I didn’t was that I already had Ortiz on two other roto-teams, and didn’t want to risk a total flame-out if Ortiz got injured. Had I taken Ortiz in the 1st round, I probably would have skipped Sexson a few rounds later.
Oddly, my low SLG didn’t seem to hurt my RBIs. I got 13 points in the RBI cat, but only 3 in slugging.
Pitching was my team’s strength, much of that attributable to Papelbon, who was possibly the steal of the draft in round 21. BJ Ryan was better than projected (similar in saves, but better in the ratios), and Mike Gonzalez was in line with expectations as well, until he got injured. My top three starters were Lackey, Doug Davis, and Chris Young. Lackey was a bit better than expected (except for wins), Davis was an underachiever, and Chris Young was also better than expected until I jettisoned him a bit too early in August. As it turned out, he came back from his injury much better than I thought he would.
In addition to my 3 closers, pitching was really boosted by my waiver pickup of Jered Weaver. Those four put me in such a strong position in ERA and WHIP (and Ks) that I could afford to take a lot of gambles down the stretch in search of some wins. Those gambles didn’t pay off very well, but didn’t cost me anything either, as I was only 2.5 points from the max possible in the four other pitching categories combined. In fact, if Papelbon and Gonzalez has stayed healthy, I might have kept 1.5 of those points (saves), and maybe the missing WHIP point as well.
So, my decision to defer on starting pitching until round 9 worked out just fine. Too bad some of my early hitter choices didn’t work out better. Somehow, in a year where power hitting was on the rise, my team wimped out.
7
Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 12:15
Overall, league offense was up this year. Just comparing the total stats for the 2006 RIBC vs. the 2005 league: Runs +3.5% RBI +5% SB +5.2% OBP +2.5% (.352 vs .344) SLG +3.8% (.461 vs .444)
Here are the pitching comparisons: Wins -2.3% (not sure how to interpret this one!) Saves -4.7% Ks +3.5% ERA +10.25% (4.25 vs 3.86) WHIP +4.1 (1.31 vs 1.28)
8
allhair allstars Sustainer
ID: 50902421 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 12:30
2006 RIBC AA Coast to Coast Final Standings
Rank
Team Name
Gurupie Name
Final Points
1
Rangers_Homer
Bags
128.5
2
Bash Brothers
Bash Brothers
127.5
3
allhair's pine tar
allhair allstars
111.5
4
Smith32
Smith32
104.0
5
Tytanaq Failures
RoboGuru
101.0
6
Aggy's Miracles
Aggy
100.0
7
Weykool
weykool
99.5
7
Munson Mobsters
Fosten
99.5
9
Friars in OC
qmusean
96.0
10
WG
wazaaap_guy
92.0
11
GF's BrewCrew
GolfFreak
82.0
12
Steve Biz
Steve Biz
63.5
13
FTF Polar Bears
Seanfeld
44.5
14
gunz
gunz
42.5
15
Chico's Bail Bonds
Ender
41.5
16
DAYTON DRAGONS
achesshir50
26.5
9
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 15:09
I dug up my old spreadsheet to compare Projected vs. Actual for my "starting lineup"...
W Sv K ERA WHIP P: 90 84 1089 3.423 1.206 A: 88 69 1096 4.32 1.34
Clearly, my ERA and WHIP cost me. If I had somehow managed my projections, I would have gained an extra 9 points from ERA and 8 points from WHIP. Even half of that 17 points would have given me enough to be in 6th place, without taking into account points lost for others.
I'm actually a bit surprised that my RBI total cost me so much. I was over my projection, yet only got 3 points. I didn't project to win the category, but I also didn't think 80% of my target (1080, which was VERY close to 1st) would be so bad. That's another place I could have made up 8 points with a better draft strategy, IMHO.
I was actually surprised at how accurate my targets were. Here's my "targets" compared to what actually won the category...
W Sv K ERA WHIP T: 99 113 1163 3.480 1.200 W: 96 122 1151 3.63 1.25
Now if I could just find a drafting strategy that would hit my targets, I'd win the whole thing! ;)
10
StLCards Leader
ID: 31010716 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 15:12
Rank
RIBC AAA International
Pts
1
The Treasonists
139
2
Peter N.
129.5
3
StLCards
118.5
4
JL
104
5
Uptown Bombers
100.5
6
Mith's Malcontents
90.5
6
Andrew the Athletic
90.5
8
slackjawed yokels
88.5
9
Matt S on the Road
74.5
9
Rand Dragons
74.5
11
Bmd
71.5
12
SFH's Slumpbusters
69.5
13
vid's Vendetta
64.5
14
GoatLockers AAA Bums
62.5
15
s R
49.5
16
tommyd's newfie boys
32.5
12
Bandos Sustainer
ID: 279492419 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 17:06
A very competitive year in the Sally league. Turdbosses (the mudge) and Chicgo Serb (JT Serb) went into the last day tied. Somehow, Serb gained 5 points! Nice Day and Congrats to him. Pretty active leaguye but the banter was lacking.
I'll be commishing the AA Sally league AGAIN next year. Someone beat the yanks, please.
13
Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 17:11
Reposting the AA Sally league standings to eliminate about 253 columns of blank data (thereby widening this post to the extreme).
The banter was rather low, but it was a fierce league. I cant tell you the number of times i went to the waiver wire to get somebody and was like damn hes gone already.
15
youngroman
ID: 3751268 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 18:52
RIBC AAA - Pacific Coast League:
Rank
Manager
Team
Points
1.
filthy
Filthy Rich
124
2.
tosh
Tosh
121.5
3.
philsphan
Rocky Balboas
120.5
4.
ksoze
who is ksoze?
119.5
5.
loki
Hoboken Zephyrs
104.5
6.
darkside
darkside of the moon
97.5
7.
Cobwebs
Cobwebs
91.5
8.
Species
Species
85.5
9.
da bomb
Da Bomb Squad
84.5
10.
coldwater coyotes
coldwater coyotes
81.5
11.
youngroman
youngroman's Luschen
69.5
12.
Piccolos
Piccolos
64
13.
R9
R9's Crazy Crazies
53
13.
Taxman
Tax
53
15.
rev
Rev's redbirds
46
16.
Nerfherders
Nerfherders
44
16
jumpball Sustainer
ID: 33050298 Mon, Oct 02, 2006, 23:40
Congratulations to Holt for winning the league! Also kudos to the managers that are automatic qualifiers for next year's league. Coming into this season, KKB and I were the only managers to be in the league each year (other than Guru), so next year will be the first with a complete turnover from the initial season.
This year was exactly the opposite of last for me. Last year, I languished in 12th-14th place for 5 months until an amazing stretch from my players in late August and early September pushed me to a 5th place finish. This year, I spend 5 months in 4th-6th place and a horrific slump in early September dropped me to the 10th place finish.
I did prove 2 things this season.
(1) You do NOT need a closer to finish in the top 6. If not for my hitters completely tanking for 3 weeks and Harden basically only making 4 1/2 starts, I believe I would have earned an invitation to return next year.
(2) You DO need to spend more than 15 minutes twice a week in order to be successful. I've been at a client site all season where Rotoguru.com and fantasy sports sites (including Yahoo) were on the list of sites that are blocked. So managing a team at work was impossible, even during lunch. I left too many players in active positions (see Edmonds, Jim) when they weren't playing because I wasn't keeping up with news.
Right now, I'm not sure if I'll play in a AAA league next year or if I'll retire from fantasy sports. It'll probably depend on where I'll likely be working and what access I'll have during lunch periods. It's been a fun 3 years in this league -- I've enjoyed every minute!
-jb
17
holt
ID: 10830261 Wed, Oct 04, 2006, 00:50
Thanks again guys. IAC really made things tight through most of the season, and Trip was turning it up at the end. congrats to all who qualified for next season.
I put a lot of effort into this season and it's cool to see it pay off. Draft research. Checking the next days matchups every night (except for my week of vacation). Scouring the FA's on a regular basis. You gotta put some time into it to get the most out of your team.
Usually I only end up with 9-10 of my original players. this year 13 of em stuck with me through most of the season, with most of the failures being in the latter half of my draft.
___________________
1.01 Alex Rodriguez 31/116 27 25 3 .386 .483 underperformed but traded for Damon and Otsuka so it worked out well.
2.16 Derek Jeter 214/620 117 97 34 .417 .485 definitely got more than I expected.
3.01 Chris Carpenter 221.2 15 0 184 3.09 1.07 got what I was hoping for.
4.16 Trevor Hoffman 62.0 0 45 50 1.89 0.94 couldn't ask for anything more.
5.01 Scott Rolen 152/513 94 95 7 .369 .520 solid. I'll take it.
6.16 J.D. Drew 135/466 80 95 2 .396 .506 performed under my expectations most of season but still solid.
7.01 John Smoltz 226.0 15 0 206 3.58 1.18 no complaints.
8.16 Mike MacDougal 4.0 0 1 2 0.00 0.50 I thought this was a bad pick and I was right!
9.01 Edgar Renteria 172/583 98 70 17 .365 .439 better than I hoped for.
10.16 Cliff Floyd 21/113 13 14 2 .282 .292 didn't work out, but I traded him for Arroyo so it worked out alright.
11.01 Magglio Ordonez 170/563 81 101 1 .353 .490 thanks for coming through Mags!
12.16 Nick Swisher 136/530 102 92 1 .372 .500 thought he had some potential but this is more than expected.
13.01 Jason Lane 27/141 24 14 0 .327 .362 missed the boat on this one. bad.
14.16 Odalis Perez 25.2 3 0 14 5.96 1.52 it was worth a shot. not the same pitcher he used to be.
15.01 Adam LaRoche 127/437 78 80 0 .361 .554 like swisher, he really came through for me. he won't be around in the 15th rd next season!
16.16 Ryan Madson 7.0 0 0 4 12.86 2.57 yeah, I saw all I needed to see.
17.01 Ervin Santana 149.0 10 0 106 4.29 1.26 one of the things I learned about Ervin: start him at home, bench him on the road.
18.16 Jeff Weaver 12.1 1 0 7 6.57 1.46 ugh.
19.01 Scott Baker 23.1 0 0 16 5.40 1.37 not good.
20.16 Michael Cuddyer 137/498 91 97 4 .358 .486 wow. I dropped him early when he was hurt but luckily picked him up before anyone else got to him.
21.01 Jason LaRue 2/16 1 1 0 .286 .188 I may not even draft a catcher next year.
22.16 Dan Uggla 171/607 105 90 6 .338 .481 his numbers dropped a bit at the end but what a year. he carried his minor league success right into the majors without missing a step.
Other major players: Helton (1-traded), Mauer (5), Castillo (8), Tyler Walker (waivers), Orlando Hernandez (waivers), Anibal Sanchez (waivers), Jason Schmidt (trade), Carl Crawford (trade), Juan Pierre (trade), Hank Blalock (trade)
My strategy was the same as ever: Take pitchers who strike out a lot of batters, scrimp on starters, load up on closers, take batters who get on base. Don't shy away from players with long injury histories.
Last year in AAA, I was not happy with my draft. This year, I was very happy with my draft. More importantly, I knew I would have to be active, with Helton, Morneau, Thomas, and Giambi for 3 slots. This didn't affect me in the first half, as all four suffer injuries to varying degrees. I traded Helton at midseason, a move that probably got me into RIBC 2007.
I had the AL's All-Star starter (Rogers) and batting champ (Mauer). I won On-Base Percentage. I moved far up in Stolen Bases. I was in 16th by 10 points on May 17th. And I didn't get relegated. I'd call it a successful season.
20
Bandos Sustainer
ID: 279492419 Sat, Oct 07, 2006, 11:08
Sorry bout the mismanagement of my grid.
BTW - I was not "in it to win it" from Mudcats league.
21
blue hen Leader
ID: 710321114 Mon, Oct 16, 2006, 18:19
Eager to hear from some of the others...
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