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Subject: RIBC 2007: draft discussion #1
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 11:16
The draft will be activated shortly, although the clock will not be turned on until Friday, March 9.
Starting on Friday morning, we will institute a 6 hour clock. The clock will pause between 1am and 7am ET. I know that the pause times extend late for easterners and end early for westerners, but with a 6 hour pause, this still provides a 12 hour window for any pick which extends through the pause period, which should be ample.
If you time out, the draft will move on. Skipped picks can be made up at any time thererafter. If your turn arises and you still have an outstanding skipped pick, I will probably move the draft on to the next picker. If we get well ahead of pace, I may relax that stance. But hopefully it will not become an issue. This also means that people on the turn have a single clock period to make their first pick, or both picks will be skipped.
Although the clock will be set at 6 hours, we cannot make satisfactory progress if many managers use much of that allowance. We need to average a little more than one round per day, so please do your best to keep up the pace. If we fall behind, managers who are chronically slow may be put on an shorter clock.
We will use this thread for logistical communications, to help others anticipate potential delays, to recruit someone to accept a queue, to announce or solicit trades, to coordinate changes in the clock for weekends, etc. Please check this thread regularly throughout the draft, as we will rely on it as the primary means of communication among RIBC managers.
Established draft etiquette is that no undrafted player names should be mentioned either here or in the rationale threads, and in the event of an infraction, should be edited out.
After two rounds have been completed, a separate draft rationale thread will be started. We will try to keep that thread on a 2 round lag. Therefore, after you make your pick in round 3, please immediately post your round 1 pick rationale, and so forth. I usually draft my rationales as I make picks, so that all I need to do when the time comes is copy and paste. I recommend that approach for everyone.
You may draft a player even if he is not currently listed on Yahoo. In that event, you will have the first rights to claim that player when he is listed, as long as you preserve that roster slot for him.
Once the draft is completed, you will no longer be able to protect a slot for any unlisted player. At that point, unlisted players will only be available through the standard waiver/free agent process.
When you select a player, please list him at the position that you primarily expect to use him. Of course, these positions are not binding, and are only indicative of your anticipated usage. YAHOO position eligibilities will be used throughout the season.
The draft software allows you to set up a queue, and to make that queue available to any other manager who you authorize as a designated picker. Be aware that, as commish, I am automatically authorized as a DP for everyone. Your queue will not be visible to your DPs until it is your turn to pick, and you may specify whether the entire queue should be visible, or only the top name. However, if you do not make your queue "available", then no one will be able to see it when it is your turn. If you want your queue to be used, then please be sure that you have it set as available. If you do not want your queue used, then be sure to make it unavailable. If it is your turn and a queue is available to me, I will make that pick for you unless you have posted explicit instructions to the contrary in this thread.
In order to keep the draft moving at an acceptable pace, please make active use of queues if you expect to be unavailable when it is your turn. Recent drafts have gone very smoothly due primarily to the active use of queues.
The draft will last for 25 rounds. You are not required to draft a player for every position. |
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.] |
| 415 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 11:43
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Here are some changes I see:
19.05 (sanfordors) Jose Cruz > Nelson Cruz
22.05 (rotoguru) Justin Germano > Esteban German
21.13 (building 7) Boone Logan > Nook Logan (still shows that)
22.02 (jtserb) Brandon Wood > Kerry Wood
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| 416 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 12:04
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My team looks good Guru. Thanks for all the work to make this happpen.
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| 417 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 710321114
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 12:13
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Your commissioner must enter your offline draft results and hit the 'Begin Season' button in order for your league to begin play
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| 418 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 13:15
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"I will wait until Sunday to submit the final draft results and activate the league."
:)
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| 419 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 710321114
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 14:16
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Right - how do I check my roster before that?
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| 420 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 14:25
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Draft Central/Draft Results
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| 421 | mjd
Sustainer
ID: 501381415
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 15:23
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Guru, Please pardon the interruption, but I need a clarification of the rule on placeholders. In the header of this thread you say:
You may draft a player even if he is not currently listed on Yahoo. In that event, you will have the first rights to claim that player when he is listed, as long as you preserve that roster slot for him.
Once the draft is completed, you will no longer be able to protect a slot for any unlisted player. At that point, unlisted players will only be available through the standard waiver/free agent process.
It was my understanding that you could hold onto those placeholders even after the season began and you would have exclusive right to said player as long as you held those placeholders when Yahoo added the player's name into the data base.
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| 422 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 15:31
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You can hold onto a slot for drafted players only. But you can no longer put in a claim (waiver or otherwise) for players who are not yet listed.
Perhaps I should have said it this way:You may draft a player even if he is not currently listed on Yahoo. In that event, you will have the first rights to claim that player when he is listed, as long as you preserve that roster slot for him. Once the draft is completed, you will no longer be able to protect a slot for any unlisted player who you did not draft. At that point, unlisted players will only be available through the standard waiver/free agent process.
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| 423 | mjd
Sustainer
ID: 501381415
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 15:42
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Thank You
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| 424 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 17:09
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24.12 Juan Salas RP Tam
Salas had visa problems and showed up late for spring training, but from what I've read he has as good a chance as any to wind up as Tampa's closer. Maybe not right off the bat, but at some point during the season.
Check out his numbers last year ( arguably in AA and AAA ): sub 1.00 ERA, WHIP .837, and 85 K's in only 63 innings
So what can I expect this year? Not sure, but certainly worth a pick in round 24
25.07 Mark Ellis 2B Oak
I needed a backup MI and Ellis fit the bill. Last year was an off year ( or was the prior season a career year? )
Oft injured, little power, no speed.... hmmm, why did I pick him?
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| 425 | Trip
ID: 11250227
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 18:01
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I will fill in my remaining rationales when I get home on Tuesday.
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| 426 | holt
ID: 590581711
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 18:36
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my team draft is accurate.
great work on everything Guru.
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| 427 | filthy
ID: 27224243
Sat, Mar 24, 2007, 17:06
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23.16 Scott Eyre RP CHC
Just filling out the pitching staff here. Eyre isn't too bad, seems fairly reliable with a nice amount of strikeouts. I didn't get a chance to get my Dempster insurance earlier, but I'm sure that there will be times when Dempster creates a jam where a lefty is needed so Eyre might pick me up a couple of bonus wins or saves at some point.
24.01 Damaso Marte RP PIT
Team Marte in full effect now. Damaso will get me some K's and might even snake his way onto the closer scene at some point. Just the K's are good enough for me in round 24.
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| 428 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 25, 2007, 18:24
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Draft has been released, and the league is activated. Waiver priorities have been set. All undrafted players are now subjeect to waiver claims.
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| 429 | blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sun, Mar 25, 2007, 19:03
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Hey Guru, weren't there 5 outfield slots last year? Looks like there are 4 this year. Or am I thinking of another league?
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| 430 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 25, 2007, 19:31
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Must be another league.
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| 431 | blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sun, Mar 25, 2007, 20:19
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I see it now - I went back and checked last year's RIBC. Probably works better for me this year, given my outfield issues.
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| 432 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 09:00
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Kind of surprised more people wouldn't share their draft strategies and thoughts about the draft. I know it's not required, but I certainly enjoy reading them and getting more insight into different types of strategies and why picks were made,etc.
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| 433 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 09:10
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Re: 432
Agreed!
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| 434 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 09:55
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Mine's coming, I'm just about halfway done right now. I'll get it finished before the week is done.
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| 435 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 710321114
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 16:47
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Good to see Trip's stats. If anyone else has a chart like that, let's see it.
Interesting that I am 12th in K's but 1st (by a lot) in K/IP. You guys better watch out.
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| 436 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 17:42
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blue hen,
I have a table much like Trip's, but I don't know how to post it here. Any help would be appreciated.
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| 437 | filthy
ID: 592552715
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 18:06
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Still trying to catch up on homework that was overlooked due to the draft... Once that is done, probably during the weekend, I will post a recap.
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| 438 | holt
ID: 590581711
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 18:33
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i'll do a recap as soon as I get time to do it properly - just don't want to half-ass it.
pre-season projections are fun and all, but does it really have any value when teams are making 130 transactions in a season? I can see getting some kind of indicator from the % projections but that's about it.
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| 439 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 18:41
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Outsider's perspective/smartass comment:
Hilarious to see Trip's projections and VORP, attrition, age, etc percentages being so strong for Dave R's team......all while Dave R is about as technically skilled in terms of baseball drafts as Fred Flintstone. Trip's using technology from 25 years in the future while Dave R is, metaphorically, having a bird in the camera carve a picture of Wilma out of stone.
That's not to say Dave doesn't know what he's doing, but outside of a cheatsheet and Rotowire projections as a guide, he's just not that sophisticated (and neither am I). So, that being said - and the point to this - it's amazing how in using some information as a guide, you can still use your own intuition, non-technical skill and experience to arrive at the same result.
See Dave, I'm complimenting you, in a deranged way! ;-)
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| 440 | Building 7
ID: 571192610
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 19:25
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Can somebody elaborate on what these stats are?
VORP Total
Breakout
Improve
Collapse
Attrition
i.e. I Have the highest Collapse at 35.2%. Is that good or bad or what?
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| 441 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 20:28
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Re: 438
I haven't cross-checked the numbers for sure, but a lot of the counting stats seem like they would beat previous RIBC totals by a decent amount.
Long story short: Projecting is fun, but in this league it's all about how you cope with injuries, "off" years, and picking up that diamond in the rough about 3 weeks earlier than you would in any other league.
As always, it'll be fun! :)
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| 442 | blue hen
ID: 472431014
Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 20:43
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Exactly. I usually lead the RIBC in four categories - on-base percentage, strikeouts, DL days, and transactions.
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| 443 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 08:49
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VORP = Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense. In the example I provided, I just summed the VORP for all the players on your team.
Breakout % is the chance that a player will significantly improve on the projected stats.
Improve % is the chance that a player will improve at all.
Collapse % is the chance that a player's performance will decrease significantly from the projected stats.
Attrition % is the chance that a player will miss significant playing time.
That's just the quick and dirty. For more info, check the following link:
BP Glossary
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| 444 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 08:54
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Matt Lindstrom is available when he appears in the Yahoo! database. I released him when I dropped Kris Benson.
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| 445 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 09:16
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Philsphan, here is how you can post your tables:
There may be an easier way, but this is how I do it.
1 - Save the file as a web page. When you save as a web page, choose to save only the cell area that you want to reproduce, and not the entire sheet. Otherwise, you may get a bunch of blank columns (situated to the right of the table) which force the forum page to widen unnecessarily
2 - Open the web page, select view > source. .
3 - Copy and paste the data into your post, making sure you select Yes on the ignore line feeds button.
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| 446 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 10:27
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Thanks Trip, I will give that a try as soon as I have a minute...
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| 447 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 12:18
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Thanks for the help Trip. The tables came out perfect. I can go home and tell my wife I learned something new today...
I agree with others who have qualified draft projection numbers like these. Obviously, that's all they are - projections. But I enjoy putting them together and it gives me some idea how I am doing relative to everyone else in the league.
The other problem here is that my standings, as well as Trip's I'm sure, use all 25 players. That would explain the high counts that KKB is referring to. Usually I just concern myself with the first 21 rounds in that regard.
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| 448 | Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 12:19
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Thanks for the link Mr. Trip. It looks like most of those stats are based on someone's projections. My high collapse rating may turn out to be accurate though as my team is already collapsing with three injuries since the draft ended.
Also, Arhtur Rhodes is available when he appears in the Yahoo! database. I released my rights to him when I dropped Liriano.
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| 449 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 13:42
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Re: 447
Actually, I didn't realize the tables took all 25 players into account. If so, then the standings portion is almost useless. For instance, guys like Hairston and Baker on my team are going to have VERY low projections. But, if I need them, then they're either going to outperform their projections or they'll fill in for the missing stats of the injured player(s).
Unless the bench is ignored, the stats are going to be skewed towards managers who selected 25 players they can use interchangeably.
Further, it would be interesting to know if Trip was still in first place with just 21 players. ;)
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| 450 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 14:37
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I actually ran them every three rounds from round 12 on. I had Guru ahead until round 18, at which point AG and DaveR remained in the top 3.
Again, I do realize that no matter which round I run them in, they are still meaningless.
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| 451 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 14:44
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I was monitoring hitter projections for awhile and found mine to be low during the draft. One reason I wasn't as concerned as I could have been is that many of my projections did not account for a 'full' season. So when a guy like Griffey invariably gets hurt, I will plug a different player in his place. So really a projection for Griffey would need to account for X number of ABs from Griffey + Y number of ABs for his replacement.
I was already finding it tedious to just track who picked whom, so I gave it up ;)
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| 452 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 14:56
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I see I wasn't the only one trying to create rankings. I too used a R+RBI+SB metric, and then also tried ((R+RBI+SB) * OPS). I was never really sure if there was any merit in that last metric but it seemed to sort players pretty well.
I also came up with a roto-rank metric where I sorted the projections by category and then assigned a rank to each player. I then totaled all the rankings for each category to get a composite score.
My thinking was that if a player kept rising to the top based on different sort criteria then he was probably worth drafting. Even still I avoided certain players that I didn't trust over a season.
When it came right down to it I tried looking at tiers more than an individual player. Early in the draft I chose from the top of a tier and later I chose the player from the tier I thought was closest to being used up. Late in the draft though I abandoned the 'projections' as there really no good way to project players with limited experience.
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| 453 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 15:17
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449
I've thought about the 21/25 player thing and the results they imply. If you figure the average "starter" on your team averages 150 games (just throwing a number out there - I don't know what it is) and the max is 162, that leaves you with 12 games at each position to fill in (assuming you max out games). Can we then make the assumption that the 4 bench player numbers can be used to supplement those missing games (12 x 12 = 144 for hitters) to some degree? And if so, then ceratinly some of their projections are valid to include. The question becomes how much.
In the end though, the first trade I make nullifies it all anyway for the most part.
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| 454 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 15:38
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Re: 453
Probably not. I doubt I would use Hairston/Baker unless I absolutely had to. In fact, they probably wouldn't get any PT unless I needed them.
Thus, I'm likely to have different (better?) players filling in my games. Better put: I'm either going to have Quentin or Hairston and Helton or Baker on my team at the end of the season. If I still have all 4, something went massively wrong. In fact, I would better guess that's going to be the case by the end of May.
---
About (R + RBI + SB), I'm interested in why it seemed to be used by so many. I tried it on my team just now and it raised more questions than it answered. For instance, my (starting) team, according to strict Rotowire projections has a total of 1981. But, if I replace Carlos Quentin (90 R, 85 RBI, 6 SB) with Juan Pierre (92, 45, 56), I actually gain 12 "points." But, when I take all those projected stats and put my 2007 team in the 2006 standings, my team falls 4 roto-points. So, a gain in (R + RBI + SB) actually hurts me.
Thoughts? I'm mostly interested in how those who used it actually used it so I can see how it might best be valuable.
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| 455 | Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 16:12
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Last year there was one team in our RIBC AAA league with an ERA under 4.00, and 3 in RIBC.
According to these projections, there are 13 and 15 teams expected to do so.
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| 456 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 16:13
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The only reason I used it was to dampen the effects the counting stats had on those teams who had a lot of hitters on their bench. I did not use it when ranking players. It probably would be more useful if SB were multiplied by a factor between 7 & 8. ((R+RBI+(SB*X))/AB
When I am making my player list for drafting, I have modified the ESPN player rater calculations posted here. I do this after averaging different sets of projections. Then I break players into positional tiers.
I hardly stand by the rankings after they are spit out, but use them as a sanity check when making selections. I do the projections not to make myself feel good, but to gauge where my team needs the most help and what player profiles I should be targeting.
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| 457 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 16:25
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It probably would be more useful if SB were multiplied by a factor between 7 & 8. ((R+RBI+(SB*X))/AB
But wouldn't that just further exacerbate the undo impact of a Dave Roberts or Juan Pierre?
Clearly, I didn't go after SB much this year so I'm intrigued.
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| 458 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 16:26
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Er, too much computer time today. That should be "undue." :)
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| 459 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 16:45
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I approached it from a point of balance. Some players offer the pure power numbers but won't put up any SBs. Sorting strictly by OPS I was afraid I would miss a viable player in other categories. I absolutely did not want to punt the SB category yet I wanted the SB threat to offer the most in terms of other categories. If I had two similar players that primarily offered SB, then I wanted the one that would help in one or more other categories as well.
I really didn't find it too helpful early on but later in the draft it helped me identify some players I thought were value picks when the pure power hitters were going off the board. I use projections more to remind myself of who all the players are and make sure I'm not missing somebody, but also to look for players I think are under-rated. Some of the players I recall being more prominent were Damon and Cameron and later Francoeur showed up that way. Hard to remember everything now ;)
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| 460 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 18:32
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I never saw the R+RBI+SB/AB formula until Trip posted it. I just added it to mine to offer any contrast between our projections. I don't quite know what the value of it is yet. It seems to substantiate a team's place in the overall hitter categories at first blush.
I only use the projections to get balance as well in building my team. It's a great tool for me to gauge my standing in each category relative to the other teams, because in the end that is how I will be judged - against the other 15 teams. It is especially helpful in the middle to late rounds where one player may look good or have certain upside, but in the overall scheme he does not help my total team score as much as another player with perhaps lesser numbers (if that makes any sense at all). That's why I was able to make the Pierre pick when I did. It got me into the SB picture somewhat and he did not hurt my ratios too bad becasue he was weighted aginst Pujols, ARamirez and Giambi. It gained more SB standings points for me than I lost in SLG and OBP.
I don't go to the degree Trip does in prioritizing. I get 3-4 sets of projections, making sure to get AB, TB, Walks numbers as well as IP, H, BB's for pitchers, so that my ratios are properly weighted at the team level. Then I look at the averages and make adjustments where I feel the need.
455
You're right. But in 2005, 11 RIBC teams were under 4.00 ERA. I think that is more the norm. I think last year was a real exception because of the WBC and that threw ERA's way out of whack, especially early in the season. I think we'll see pitchers come back more to normal this year. That's why I gambled and got my 4 SP's so early.
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| 461 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 19:00
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KKB - Too bad you didn't have Hairston in your lineup today.
"Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin gave Hairston the news he had officially made the team, and he responded by hitting three homers off of Josh Fogg on Tuesday, the Arizona Republic reports."
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| 462 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 22:11
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Re 461
The "problem" is that he probably won't get much PT unless Quentin is out. Of course, that works well for me, but it does make him a bit useless otherwise. He was likely to make the team with Quentin's injury, so that was no matter to me. And he can certainly hit the ball, as evidenced by previous year's stats. He's no 3-HR/night kind of guy, but he would fill in fine for Quentin without a huge dropoff, IMHO, if needed.
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| 463 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 30, 2007, 14:03
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I just subbed in Al Reyes, Sammy Sosa, and Dustin Hermanson to their respective teams. Rights to Rhodes and Lindstrom have been relinquished.
As far as I know, the only protected placeholder is now Adam Miller (aka Davis Romero), for Tosh.
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| 470 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Apr 09, 2007, 09:19
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spam block
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