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Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 1-5)
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 16:27
This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
Please post your ( 2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.
If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.
If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like "2.10 placeholder for Guru". This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.
3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.
4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
The general format should be:
1.01 Albert Pujols, OF, STL
Several sentences of rationale.
In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.
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| 28 | Dave R
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 22:19
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2.12 Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI
I really wanted to get a top MI ( preferably a SS ) with this pick, and hoped that Jeter would slip to me, being a Yankee fan. But I knew he wouldn't. That left me wishing for Rollins or Tejada.
Tejada has the projected edge in RBI's and OPS but Rollins should score more and hopefully steal around 40 bases. I'm very happy to start the draft with 2 Phillies and look forward to Rollins trotting around the bases, being knocked in by a Howard HR.
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| 29 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 22:20
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2.13 Matt Holliday, OF, COL
The last of the "A" bats in my draft list, I am relying on Holliday to form the anchor for my SLG stats. I expect another top 10 SLG performance from Holliday this year. I was hoping for one of the non-running "B" tier of SS's to make it to me here, but saw Rollins and Tejada disappear in the 4 picks before me.
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| 30 | Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Sat, Mar 10, 2007, 23:18
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2.14 Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
After taking Santana in the 1st round, I knew I was going to take a hitter with this pick. I finally narrowed it down to 3 players: Garrett Atkins, Aramis Ramirez and Hanley Ramirez. With a lot of speed still available, I thought I could wait on Hanley. If he didn't make it back to me in the next round, I could still get someone similar. Atkins and Aramis, on the other hand, stood out from the rest as the best CI's left. Aramis would have been the safer pick here, since he's been consistently putting up solid numbers over the past 3 seasons. It eventually came down to Atkins and his .409 OBP though. That was a mark that Aramis had never achieved in his career. If Atkins can repeat what he did in 2006, I'll be very happy with this pick. If not, I may see some of you guys in AAA next year.
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| 31 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 00:13
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2.15 Jake Peavy, SP, SD
I’ve been pondering this pick since before the draft even started. I am trying to be realistic in who I might get as so many still have to pick and there is little chance the type of player I want will slip this far. Lots of ways I could go. Might take another multi-tool hitter similar to A-Rod. I was really hoping Jeter would slip to me, but that was obviously a dream. Originally I had my eye set on a top of the rotation pitcher like Carpenter, he went earlier than I expected, but I figured he wouldn’t make it to me anyway, but I did think Halladay would be there. Could Tejada still be around? No. I’m surprised Atkins hasn’t gone yet, so maybe I could take another 3B? no. I know that I’m taking a closer in round 3, so if I don’t take a pitcher what does that mean? That I get the 20th pitcher overall to anchor my staff?
As it got to within 8 players of my turn I started seriously looking at the board. If either Jason Bay or Grady Sizemore were still available I would have taken one of them. Other options in Rollins, Derek Lee, Atkins, and Holliday all went leaving Carlos Lee, Hanley Ramirez, A. Jones, etc. Very tempted to take Hanley here, but I think it is too early for a single cat guy as I think it will be hard for FL to score runs this year. OF is deeper so I have to pass on Lee too. Time to look at pitchers I think. The more I look at it I really need to take a SP. That is what I thought all along when choosing the 2nd spot. Had I wanted a 2nd hitter I should have chosen the 9th draft spot.
Looking at pitcher options I focused on K’s, ERA, and Whip. Zambrano and Oswalt were options and both probably get more wins than Peavy, but I’m not going to root for either one of them! Zambrano is a bit wild and Oswalt is lower on K’s and neither are in good parks. I took Peavy for his 200+ K’s and pitching in a pitchers park. There is a big risk with any pitcher and Peavy maybe more so than others, but if he does rebound like he did in the second half last year then he will be worth it. Right after I drafted him I saw he got rocked in Spring Training again and now has an 11+ ERA and now a ‘dead arm’, just great!
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| 32 | Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 00:41
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2.16 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHN
I was really hoping for either Atkins or Rollins in this spot, but I am perfectly happy to have Ramirez compliment Pujols on my infield. My projections for Ramirez: 90+ R, 110+ RBI, .360/.560. I have 2 studs for SLG, and that is a good way to start. I know he got off to a miserable start last year, but with a healthy Lee and now Soriano in the lineup, maybe he'll see flatter pitches when he steps to the late. That can only help, right?
3.01 Carlos Zambrano, SP, CNH
I almost took a closer here to fend off the run that is sure to happen before I see my next pick (sure enough it happened). But I didn’t want to take a chance of having all the top-tier starting pitchers fall off the board by the time it came back to me either.
Almost every year I see Zambrano available and opt for someone else. And at the end of every year I wonder why I didn't choose him. Now that I have him he'll go down to injury and I'll be sunk. But when Peavy went off the board just before my turn, that cemented things for me. My feeling here is that with Z in a contract year, I think I have someone who is motivated. Maybe that will mitigate his temper somewhat and help him focus more. And he has a much better team behind him now. I expect 18 wins and 200+ K’s with this pick, and solid ERA/WHIP to anchor my staff.
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| 34 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 00:52
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3.02 Joe Nathan, RP, MN
OK, let’s all let out the collective groan, ugh, someone’s already taking a closer at the start of round 3! And repeat after me, “I will not take a closer this early, I will not take a closer this early”. Ahh, but some of you will and some more will take pitchers. That should help the type of player I’m targeting in round 4 and 5 to make it back to me.
This year I see about 8 closers that are more likely to help you in other stats as well as getting saves. Drafting from the 2nd position can be tough when it comes to closers since it is likely that by the end of the 4th round the top tier closers will all be gone, so it is either take the first one at round 3 or hope to grab one of the few remaining solid closers left in round 4 or 5. I now have a top 3B, top closer, and a top 5 pitcher in my first 3 picks. Nathan should get about 40 saves, 90Ks, 5W, 2.10ERA, and .900Whip. Had I waited, I would expect to get no better than the 10th closer. I really wanted to stay out of an area where gains in saves are somewhat offset by an increase in era and whip. With my next two picks I will focus on speed and power.
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| 35 | Athletics Guy
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 02:16
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3.03 Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA
I was thinking about taking K-Rod here, but I just couldn't pass up on Hanley Ramirez. In just his 1st year in the majors, Hanley has already established himself as one of the league's premier basestealers. Among shortstops, he is second only to Jose Reyes in that category. I expect an OPS around .800 and 110+ R to go with his 45-50 SB. Unless he experiences a sophomore slump, he should have no problem reaching those numbers. Hopefully, passing on a top-tier closer won't come back to haunt me.
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| 36 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 02:18
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3.04 Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
I felt like Furcal was a bit of a reach with this pick, and was all set to grab B.J. Ryan here but I have an aversion to drafting closers this early. I tried to get over it, but just couldn't type it out. What put me over the edge on Furcal was looking at my projections for Furcal and Ichiro who was a slot below him on my spreadsheet. Even if you throw out positional scarcity, Furcal still ranks ahead of Ichiro - that was the deciding factor here. One problem, I am already projecting over 100 SBs through three rounds.
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| 37 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 06:55
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for Dave R
3.05 B.J. Ryan, RP, Tor
I was prepared to start a run on closers with this pick and would have chosen Nathan, but he went 3 picks earlier. Looking at other drafts, as many as 9 closers went from this point and when the draft would get back to me. I didn't want to be caught on the end.
I "settled" for Ryan after Nathan was selected. Ryan averages better than a strikeout an inning, and if he gets the opportunities should record 40 + saves
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| 38 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 09:17
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3.06 Adam Dunn
I took Dunn in the second round last season so getting him in the third round this year is a steal, right? Actually, as bad as last season was for Dunn, he still ranked #55 in my model. His OBP is about 130 points higher than his BA, which is especially nice in this format. Cincinnati brought in a new hitting coach, Brook Jacoby, who worked with Dunn in the minors. It’s been speculated that he’ll help Dunn decrease his K’s, which could push his BA back in the .270’s, and OBP% in the .400’s. Obviously there is some risk here, but I feel like it’s worth taking.
I didn’t seriously consider anyone else with this pick. Roy Oswalt, Prince Fielder and Carlos Lee were the next three ranked guys in my analysis.
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| 39 | Bags
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:01
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3.07 - Ichiro Suzuki
I knew that if I took Lee that I would miss out on most of the SS positions. I really thought that Furcal & Young would be there for my 3rd round pick. Young was the only one that made it back. Young is my favorite Ranger and it killed me to pass on him. I wanted a player with speed and that wouldn’t kill me on slg%. Ichiro on my rankings was someone who had fallen and was now too good to pass up.
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| 40 | Peter N.
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:02
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3.08 Victor Martinez, C, CLE
I didn’t expect him to make it back to me. I was all set to take KRod, but with Vnart sitting right there, I couldn’t pass him up. He is also now available at 1st base, but I'll play him at catcher for most of the season barring something unforseen. My first goal of getting a shortstop and a backstop with 2 of my first 3 picks has now been accomplished. VMart is clearly one of the best options at catcher and there is no way he would’ve made it back to me. Martinez should be an excellent source at OBP and also contribute nicely in Runs and RBIs. I also expect his SLG% to dip over .500 this year which is nice power source from the catcher slot.
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| 41 | blue hen
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:03
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3.9 Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez
This pick was going to be a closer. That's the reason I didn't take #4, so I could take a closer in the third round and not get screwed by having to wait until late in the fourth. That may have happened anyway, but I'll take about that in the Wells rationale.
The two best closers in baseball are Francisco Rodriguez and B.J. Ryan. Joe Nathan and Billy Wagner are also pretty great, but Nathan isn't quite as nasty and Wagner is getting old. My goal in this round was to take K-Rod, with Ryan as my first backup choice.
The closer run started a few picks before mine, and Nathan and Ryan went. I took K-Rod, happily, and now I don't have to worry about closers for a while. Wagner, Rivera, Putz, Hoffman, Street, and Lidge all went in the next 17 picks, and I'd put K-Rod up against any of them.
Three picks, and I've got an outfielder, a first baseman, and a closer. Still a lot of holes to fill but it's a good core.
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| 42 | Holt
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:04
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3.10 Carlos Lee, OF, Hou
Lee will be playing half his games in Houston this season (ever gotten a look at that left-field porch?). Main drawback for Lee is that his OBP is .350ish. but, he's an aggressive hitter, makes good contact, drives in a lot of runs. last season he was good for triple digit R's/RBI, .900 OPS, and 19 steals. No, I still don't have a pitcher, but I've got 3 solid hitters who produce in all 5 categories.
other players I considered here were Oswalt, Webb, or a closer. I do like having an anchor on the pitching staff, but pitchers are pitchers(injury-prone!). I'm glad I held off. my gamble of waiting on a closer paid off as I still got Hoffman and Saito in the next 2 rds. |
| 43 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 13:07
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3.11 ~ Roy Oswalt, SP, HOU
When I do my season-end retrospective, this may be the pick that doomed my season. And it won’t be Roy’s fault … it’s the crazy drafting of one particular manager. When making my decision, I narrowed the field to Oswalt, Michael Young, or a closer. I had my eye on 4 different closers, and really need a middle infielder. As JJ Putz proved last year … closers are a fickle group and taking one early is certainly a risk. In the end … I decided to take Oswalt, and then take a reach and pick up Carlos Guillen in round 4 (I see him as a late 4th to early 5th round pick) who is comparable to Young.
Imagine my distress in round 4 when Guru takes Carlos Guillen just before me. He already has Jeter for cripes sake. And to make matters worse, all 4 closers I wanted were taken as well. I’ll rant more in my next rationale.
Like many managers, I tend to avoid starting pitchers in the early rounds. But having Oswalt sitting there nearing the end of round 3 was too much temptation. His K/9 rate has dropped slightly the last 2 seasons (now just below 7), but his command (K/BB) has improved (now over 4). An improved offense should mean more wins over last year, with excellence in ERA & WHIP. A solid opening-day ace.
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| 44 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 14:53
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3.12 Billy Wagner, RP, NYM
I’d been tentatively planning on taking a top closer here. But let’s first look at the hitting options.
I think the best hitter available is Andruw Jones. He hasn’t lasted until pick 3.12 in any other RIBC draft, and I’m sure he won’t make it back to 4.05. OF isn’t a difficult position to fill, but I don’t have any yet, so that’s not a yellow flag.
I have one MI already, but I always want to get another if it’s not a reach. The top candidates now are Michael Young, Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, and Carlos Guillen. If I take Andruw with this pick, then I’ll want a closer in round 4, and I’ll probably end up deferring on another MI until much later. It’s certainly tempting to lock down a second one now.
With Mauer and VMart off the board, catcher is not a consideration.
Let’s look at the closer choices. For my top guy, I’m looking for some who safely has the job, and who has the likelihood of materially helping my ERA, WHIP, and Ks – in addition to saves, of course. I see at least four guys who should fit that bill. With 8 intervening picks before my 4th rounder, what are the odds that all 4 would disappear? It’s certainly possible, as those teams will figure to be closed out of a top closer if they don’t get one now.
The top two available closer options are Mariano and Wagner. Of the two, Mariano is older and seems to be more prone to aches and pains, so I think I’ll opt for Wagner (knock on wood.) He’s apparently working on a splitter, which might reduce his strikeouts a bit, but hopefully will allow him to reduce his pitch count. It hurts a little to pass on Andruw, but in these RIBC drafts, there just aren’t enough early round picks to satisfy your complete wish list, and I think I'll focus on a second middle infielder next round.
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| 45 | Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 15:12
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3.13 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY
Hope that he holds up. Putz was a close 2nd. Figgins was 3rd choice. Hoping to take a speedy MI with my 4th pick just 7 picks from now. If guru had not taken a RP (Wagner) I would have probably picked Figgins. He did and that left 2 Tier 2 RP’s with 3 people left to take 2 picks each behind me. The downside is that now I have to cheer for the Yankees.
I’m not big on predictions. I’ll guess 40 saves, and the usual rediculous sub-1.00 WHIP and low ERA.
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| 46 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 15:27
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for KKB:
3.14 J.J. Putz, RP, SEA
I believe the Closer Run has officially started. It started in Round 3 last year and Round 4 in 2005. I figured this was close[r] enough between the two that it was officially on, especially given the sharp drop-off in job security after the first handful of closers.
Putz was lights out last year. 104 K in 78.3 IP and only 13 BB and 20 ER. BUT, that includes stats before he was the full-time closer. When he took over the closer job for good in mid-May, he posted 34 saves in 43.2 IP, 55 K, 1.69 ERA, and a 9:1 K/BB. That's the Putz I expect to get this year. And if he comes through, I figure he could/should be good for 45+ saves, 90+ K, a sub-2 ERA, and sub-1 WHIP.
I also considered Street and took a peek at [still undrafted] with this pick, but liked Putz's strikeout rate too much to pass him up. |
| 47 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 15:28
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for JTSERB:
3.15 Michael Young, SS, TEX
Wasen't really sure who to pick here. I was hoping Oswalt would fall to me here, but he went 4 picks earlier. With all the SB SS gone ahead of this pick I figured Young would be a safe pick. He has hit over .300 for 4 straight years and nad his lowest played games was 159 so I know I can put him in there everyday and not worry about him. All in all I wasent expecting to pick Young here, but I was in a jam on who to pick and hopefully went with the "safe pick"
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| 48 | filthy
ID: 370396
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 18:33
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3.16 Andruw Jones, OF, ATL
I had to set a long queue with these picks, and when I saw who I ended with, I wasn't immediately thrilled, but getting an MVP caliber player in a contract year isn't so bad. Probably smart to pick with my head over my heart once in a while;) I can easily see Andruw putting in a monstrous effort to ensure a monstrous payoff next year.
4.01 Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
Everyone knows about the hype surrounding this kid. Last year he kinda had a little step back but I think the expectations were just a little high. I feel that this is the year he explodes, as he came into camp in better shape this year. So much upside here, I love it.
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| 49 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 19:03
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for JTSERB
4.02 Brandon Webb, SP, ARI
Figured it was time to get some pitching after my first three picks were all hitters. Figured I couldn't go wrong with Webb here. He won the CY Young last year, solid era, solid whip, decent amount of SO, another safe pick which seems to be my strategy so far.
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| 50 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 19:04
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4.03 Houston Street, RP, OAK
My expectation of the Closer Run was stymied a bit by Designated Picker selections for 3.15 - 4.02. Still, that didn't stop me from grabbing another upper-echelon closer in Street to not get left out in the cold with just a single closer who has a great grip on the job.
Street posted 37 saves in 70.7 innings last year with a gaudy 3.31 ERA, but low-enough 1.090 WHIP. His 8.53 K/9 suggests to me that he'll be fine and there's no reason to believe he's anything but entrenched in the closers role. I'll hope for, and be happy with, 35+ saves, 70 K, a sub-2.5 ERA, and 1.000-ish WHIP.
Later, it's clear the Closer Run was not to be, but I still feel good about having Putz and Street anchoring my RPs with what should easily be 80 saves and could be more like 90. Even though the Closer Run didn't happen as with previous years, the upper level Closers that I would seriously consider were gone by my next pick.
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| 51 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 21:04
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for Building 7:
4.04 Chone Figgins, 2B, Ana
This guy fills two needs. Steals and plays 2B. Looks like he may bat 9th, but there's some excuse every spring not to take him, and he keeps getting a lot of steals. I remember him batting 9th a lot last year and he did OK. I seem to get this guy every year. I really wanted one of the speedy shortstops, but my draft slot did not really allow it. Anyways, this pick allows me to go different ways for the rest of the draft.
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| 52 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 21:06
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4.05 Carlos Guillen, SS, Det
Through 52 picks, we’ve had 15 pitchers and 37 hitters taken. I’ve taken a DH, a SS, and a closer. Two of the four names on my short list for middle infielders have disappeared (Young & Figgins), leaving Roberts and Guillen. I still don’t know what my hitting weakness will tend to be, but it might be steals (it often is), which makes Brian Roberts’ relative value a bit suspect.
Troy Glaus is another intriguing alternative (he’s eligible at SS & 3B), but it seems a bit early for him now, even though he probably won’t last until 5.12. (But if he does, he won’t last until 5.13!)
Although none of the other RIBC leagues has taken Guillen this early (he’s generally been an early 5th rounder), I have him ranked as the approx. the 40th best hitter, and the 8th best hitter on the board currently. The top 7 are all OF, 1B, or DH. I think this qualifies as “taking a middle infielder when it’s not a reach”. Guillen provides decent value in all cats, keeping my options open as the draft proceeds. Consensus projections are 92-77-14-.387-.511. RotoWire is the most negative on him, citing injury concerns based on a “lengthy injury history.” But he appeared in 153 games last year (thus prompting RotoWire to figure he’s “due”), and there have been no warning signs so far this spring.
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| 53 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 11, 2007, 21:56
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4.06 ~ Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS
As I described in rationale 3.11, I was going to take a bit of a reach and take Carlos Guillen with this pick. After looking at the qualifying leagues, and multiple mock drafts, I felt plenty secure that Guillen would be there for me. I still can’t get over my shock of Guru selecting Guillen at 4.05 (coupling him with Jeter). The four closers I had targeted all were selected. It’s a drop to the next tier of middle infield. I decided to skip on Trevor Hoffman (the next closer on my list), and add more lumber to the lineup.
I narrowed the choices to Konerko and Vernon Wells. I already have one OFer, and a 1B. All the juicy first basemen are getting nabbed, so I’ll pick Konerko and fill the CI position. Konerko has produced excellent power numbers the last 3 seasons. Over the past two years, he has reduced his ground ball rate to 33 percent, which is an excellent approach considering his lack of speed and home park. U.S. Cellular Field increases right-handed home runs by 33 percent.
I’m not unsatisfied with Konerko. I’ll just have to be more selective later in the draft when I’m choosing my middle infield.
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| 54 | Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 03:40
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for holt:
4.07 Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD
anyone mind if I just cut and paste my rationale from last season?
"4.16 Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD
I knew the closer run would go into full swing sometime in the 3rd round but it worked out ok. when my 4.16 pick came around hoffman, (undrafted), and f.cordero were all still available. I can see pros and cons for all 3 of them, but I finally decided on hoffman because he's had a whip under 1.20 for 12 straight seasons. (undrafted) doesn't have much of a track record to go by, and francisco cordero, well, I've seen him pitch in person and there's just something not right about that guy. :D"
Just change the pick number, and the whip under 1.20 for 13 seasons. the rest still applies. by readin other rationales it seems I got really lucky that he was available here. the closers taken after him are all a big drop-off (in either production or risk). I don't think I could have gotten a better player at this point in the draft. yeah he's just a closer, but this is a 16 team league. have you ever tried to trade for a closer in this league? last year I had to trade A-Rod to get it done (thanks MC/TB :).
For blue hen's lazyass:
4.08 Vernon Wells, OF, TOR
As great as Wells is, I had buyers' remorse as soon as I hit the button. I wasn't sure why. I almost took Carlos Delgado. Delgado is great, but I really didn't feel like having two first basemen in the first four picks.
The guy I should have taken is Troy Glaus. Shortstop eligible, he is almost as good as Miguel Tejada, but he was taken 41 picks later. The middle infield crowd is starting to thin out, and Glaus would have filled up a big chunk nicely.
Of course, it's like being a worse bike rider than Lance Armstrong. Vernon Wells is great. Young and in his prime, entering a free agent year, Wells should put up spectacular numbers for a Toronto team that should score a ton of runs. He even steals a bit. I'm hoping that guys like Bay and Wells can give me enough of a base that I won't have to reach for steals later.
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| 55 | Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 03:42
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4.09 Ben Sheets, SP, MIL
I really went back and forth with this pick. I was originally targeting Hoffman, but he did not make it. I still thought about taking a closer, but felt that the remaining available would be a reach at this point. I am taking a chance on a closer run leaving me screwed, but that’s the way it is. I also thought about 2nd base, but couldn’t pull the trigger there either. In the end, I decided to get someone who I feel can anchor my staff. Sheets fits that billing. Considering 8 starting pitchers went ahead of him, I feel pretty good about getting him at this point. He can mow down hitters and eat up innings. Injuries have always been the question with him, but I’m willing to take the risk with the team he has around him this year. He should be a nice source of wins, Ks, ERA, and WHIP. Here’s to a healthy Sheets.
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| 56 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 07:19
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for Bags:
4.10 Brad Lidge, RP, HOU
This might have been a panic pick. I had a stack of closers in my queue and thought I might be able to draft one of them. When it was my turn to pick all of my top closers were gone. Even though the top closers were gone I still felt I needed to grab one here.
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| 57 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 07:20
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4.11 Prince Fielder
Tough pick. I wanted to select another hitter with the potential for a .900+ OPS and 200 Runs/RBI’s. Prince, Zimmerman and Helton were the top three in my model. I dismissed Helton because he scares me. Two years of declining stats and a mystery illness last season. No thanks.
I decided on Prince because I feel like his numbers will take a big leap in his second season. He got more comfortable as the season moved along last year, his post ASB OPS was .871 compared with .799 before. He also has stolen 11/8/7 bases in the past three years. I was concerned it was a little too early to draft Prince at 59, he’s averaging 79 in all Kafenatid leagues. I was the first person to draft Ryan Howard last season at 45, his average was 63. We’ll see if I can strike gold two seasons in a row.
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| 58 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 10:02
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for Dave R:
4:12 Johnny Damon, OF, NYY
With this pick I wanted to grab someone to play the outfield and felt that Damon and V. Wells were the two best options. I was hoping one of them made it back to me and Damon did.
Damon had foot problems last year, but still swiped 25 bases and scored 115 runs with an excellant OPS of .841. Looking for similar production. Damon also is capable of nice RBI numbers and should be able to knock in around 80 runs.
With Damon and Rollins, I have a nice foundation in runs and SB's to build on.
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| 59 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 10:59
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4.13 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY
My biggest regret last year was not following up on my plan to fill out my MI with the first 3 picks. I am still regretting not going with Utley in the first round. I was consoled by the fact that I projected Cano, Figgins, and Roberts to be available with this pick. Having already landed two speedsters at SS, Cano should be able to provide the best benefits to me in the SLG and RBI departments. Only 24, Cano has tremendous upside, especially considering the lineup around him.
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| 60 | Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:08
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4.14 Carlos Delgado, 1B, NYM
After taking Hanley in the previous round, I was so sure I was going to take a closer with this pick. But the more I looked at the list of closers available, it just didn't seem like I was going to get good value. Rather than make a bit of a reach for one of the available closers, I decided to grab a big bat instead. I debated between Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi for quite a bit. I had them both pretty even in every statistical category, so I would have been content with either one. In the end, I just went with my gut (as well as my hatred for the Yankees) and took Delgado. I have him projected for 95 R, 115 RBI, .370 OBP and .560 SLG which is lightly better than what he did last season.
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| 61 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:10
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4.15, Brian Roberts, 2B, Balt
Some people are taking closers and pitchers as expected, but I really need some more to go in the next few rounds. Guru taking Guillen was painful as I really thought he would make it back to me. Also didn’t like seeing Figgins go but figured he would be gone for sure. As I mentioned in 3.02, I am targeting speed and power and looking for one of the players to be a MI. If the right power bat is available I might forgo the SBs altogether as right now I’m looking at Glaus or Hall at SS.
I am now leaning towards taking two players that will help in at least 4 categories, or maybe two lesser guys with SB potential. After much deliberation I’ve decided to go for Brian Roberts. I’m not going to get much in the way of power numbers from 2B anyway, so might as well get some steals here. Would rather have had Figgins but he was taken. If Roberts can hit to his 2005 season and keep the SBs at his 2006 season then he will be a very good value pick here. I expect more like something in-between with around 25-30SBs but with a few more rbis than last year. I could have taken Glaus now but figured Roberts might be more on the mind of Philsphan now that Figgins and Cano are gone too.
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| 62 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:29
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for Philsphan:
4.16 Jason Giambi 1B, NYA
By now half the teams have a good foundation of saves and steals. I have nothing. At first I was going to get a closer and base stealer but found Giambi too hard to pass up. I had been eyeing Pierre since he was the only other significant SB man left, but he was still pretty far down my charts. So my thinking then became why go after one category (SB) when I can strengthen 4 others with one pick? My offense now averages 103 R, 120 RBI and 1.000 OPS. That will keep me solid for several more rounds. Besides, Giambi was on my team 2 years ago in AA and was responsible for my climb from the abyss that year.
5.01 John Smoltz, SP, ATL
Smoltz was another differentiation pick. By now 7 closers have been taken, so we are now down to 2nd tier pitchers. There is not much difference now if I wait on a closer a little longer and take another stud starter off the board. I hope that this strategy will pay off for me in the end. I noticed one other manager doing the same thing. We’ll see how this works out.
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| 64 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 16:31
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5.02 Troy Glaus, SS, Tor
When I drafted my closer in round 3 I felt like I could pass on a SS as I thought Glaus might just make it back around as people might be thinking of him strictly as a 3B. Getting him here to me is about like getting Tejada. Glaus should get me some very good numbers in 4 categories. Considered taking Hall because he might get 10+ SBs but felt like Glaus was the safer bet despite some injury concerns and a bad spring so far.
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| 65 | Athletics Guy
ID: 470481017
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 20:00
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5.03 Jim Thome, DH, CWS
Once again, I passed on taking my first closer. I was hoping someone would have drafted Jim Thome by now so that I wouldn't have to make this decision. I'm not too crazy about taking a player who can only fill the UTIL spot, but his numbers are just too good to pass up on. Although he's starting to reach that age where hitters tend to slow down, his 2006 season sure didn't show any signs of it. Thome should still have at least another 40-HR season left in his tank. I'll be satisfied if he can get 100 R, 100 RBI while maintaining a .950 OPS for me. And those are pretty conservative projections.
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| 66 | Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 20:33
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5.04 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS
5.04 Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW
5.04 Todd Helton, 1B, COL
5.04 Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET
I was all set to grab a stud CI here, but saw Bonderman sitting there and couldn't resist. I may not have a true anchor, but at least I got a solid start in K's with the young'n out of Detroit. 1B/3B is the one of the positions where I am not as afraid of age, and Zimmerman's inexperience probably scared me off as much as Bonderman's potential drew me in. I thought there was a chance one of the guys I was looking at would come back to me, but am not heartbroken about missing out on any of them.
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| 67 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 20:35
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for Dave R:
5.05 Daisuke Matsuzaka SP Bos
I almost decided to wait until round 6 to select a SP, after Smoltz went a few picks earlier. Thought of a few other yet to be drafted pitchers, but in the end decided to roll the dice with Matsuzaka.
Anything close to Rotowire's projections would make me a happy camper. 16 wins, 200+ K's and decent ratios. In his first two spring training starts, he is unscored on and has struck out 6 in 5 innings. Yeh, I know it's early, but worth a shot IMO.
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| 68 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 22:20
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5.06 John Lackey, P, Ana
Lackey anchored my rotation last season and I targeted him in the 5th round early in my draft prep. What’s not to like, he’s 28, has thrown 200+ innings with an ERA under 4.00 last season, he also struck out 198 and 190. I think he’s one of two or three candidates for the Johan Santana award and I’m very happy to have him as a staff anchor in the 5th round. He only won 13 games last year, but that was mostly due to luck, 25 of his 33 start were “quality starts.”
Other players I considered, Ryan Zimmerman, Curt Schilling, and Jermaine Dye. I love Zimmerman, if I didn’t already have Cabrera and Fielder I probably would have drafted him, but I didn’t want to finish my CI spots in the first five rounds. I like Schilling for a bounce back year, especially since he’s pitching for a new contract. However, I couldn’t make an argument to draft him ahead of Lackey. I think their upside is very similar, while Schilling has much greater injury risk. If I was confident Dye could repeat 2006 I would have drafted him, I expect numbers closer to 2005, which aren’t quite worth a selection here.
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| 69 | Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 23:25
| for Bags:
5.07 Bill Hall, SS, MIL
After passing on a SS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds I didn’t want to wait any longer for my SS. Hall was the next best SS after Furcal and Young on my rankings. He will be hitting cleanup for the Brew Crew this year and should drive in 100. I also like his ability for double digit steals.
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| 70 | Peter N.
ID: 16222119
Mon, Mar 12, 2007, 23:27
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5.08 Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, OAK
I took Sheets hoping Delgado or Giambi would make it back to me. I wanted to have a power hitting 1st basemen with a nice OBP. Well, neither Giambi or Delgado made it back to me and even Fielder was picked. Looking at the remaining options at 1st base, Swisher stood out. I’m not sure if I could have waited for another round and looked elsewhere, but I did not want to take the chance. Swisher has immense upside and belted 35 homeruns last year. I expect him to be more consistent at the plate this year and post an OBP around .370 and a SLG% around .500. He should also contribute sufficiently in Runs and RBIs. It’s tough to have a problem with that kind of production from your 1st basemen.
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| 71 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 00:25
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for blue hen:
5.9 Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL
With two outfielders, a 1B, and a closer, I really needed some position scarcity. Well, maybe not - I think third base is the deepest position this year (as it was last year). Last year, I came out of the draft with Garrett Atkins as my starter.
There were really 3 options to take at third base: Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, and Scott Rolen. I really think Chipper is way ahead of both the others. He had numbers some 1B being taken couldn't even muster. I'm quite happy with this pick and I can concentrate on other areas.
There weren't really any players I was thinking about for this pick after Delgado and Glaus went.
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| 73 | holt
ID: 590581711
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 01:15
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5.10 Takashi Saito, RP, LAD
this is a 16 team league. you need 2 decent closers minimum unless you want to punt a category. obviously there aren't enough closers to go around (especially when you consider how many unstable closer situations there are). with Hoffman and Saito I feel like I got a good duo, and I didn't have to jump until the 4th rd. I even considered taking a 3rd closer in Ray in the 6th round. their trade value can't be under-estimated.
anyway, Saito was a surprise to everyone last season. he was pretty steady and had great k/9. yeah he's getting up there in years but that's not necessarily a bad thing for a closer. there's a long list of aging veterans who have excelled as closers.
considered Dye, If I KNEW he'd repeat last years numbers I'd have taken him, but I don't think he will. I also looked at McCann but I have a really hard time drafting catchers. looked at some starters but they were all reaches at this point in the draft.
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| 74 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 01:15
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5.11 ~ Julio Lugo, 2B/SS/3B, BOS
I need a middle infielder. My options were narrowed to: Lugo, Ian Kinsler (who I just took at 7.11), and Felipe Lopez. I decided to take Lugo who qualifies at both positions, and gives me more flexibility with my later picks. Maybe a bit of a reach, but seeing that most of the teams picking before my next pick still need a MI, I’ll take him now.
Hitting atop the potent Red Sox lineup, Lugo should provide a solid OBP for a MI and score around 100 runs. The Sox don’t run as much as I would like to see, but Lugo should still be good for 20 SBs.
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| 75 | Guru
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 11:42
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5.12 Jermaine Dye, OF, CHW
Jermaine Dye produced what will probably turn out to be his “career year” last season. He cooled a little during the second half, although he still posted an OBP of.371 and SLG of .595 after the All Star break. Even those numbers aren’t necessary for Dye to have value at this point. I’d be happy with 90-105-.360-.560, which would probably make him the best hitter available at this point. Maybe that’s still a bit greedy, because those exceed his averages over the last three years, and he is 33 – not old, but probably no longer on the upward trend, last year notwithstanding.
Using my philosophy from prior years, I’d have probably nabbed a second closer here. If I’d have done that, Chad Cordero would have gotten the nod. But after taking shortstops in rounds 2 & 4, I think I need to nab a legitimate power guy while he’s still available.
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| 76 | Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 11:45
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5.13 Brian McCann, C, ATL
This appears to be my best pick yet. It's always nice to look back and read these things and go....What was he thinking? I had him grouped in with the other two top catchers who went a couple rounds earlier. He hit a homerun at the last game I went to. Opposite field, and some girl caught it bare-handed, and before I could digest what was happening, she threw it back on the field. We didn't know it at the time, but after that it was all Astros, and they eventually won in 18 innings. Sorry to get side-tracked. McCann should bat somewhere in the middle, and I hope he does as well as last year. I was thinking about him with pick 4.04, so it was nice to see him there 25 picks later.
Also looking at Rolen and Helton. I figured one of them had a better chance of making it back to me than McCann. And Rolen did. Was thinking about Saito, but he was picked a few picks before me.
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| 77 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:02
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5.14 Todd Helton, 1B, COL
This definitely qualifies as a "should have done more homework before setting your queue" pick. I was going to be on the road a bit and had to set a queue. Upon further reflection, I would have been better off with anybody else in my queue than Helton because I hadn't read up on his knee issue.
A lot of my season could come down to whether or not Helton's knee is healthy enough to hit his projections (I have him at 90 RBI, 105 R, 3 SB, .975 OPS without any knee issues) or if he'll tank his OPS like he did last year. He should be good for the RBI and R, but the OPS will be the biggest question mark.
As Rotowire points out, Helton has a bit of history claiming that his injuries aren't that major, so his claim that his knee issue is "no big deal" doesn't comfort me. I'll just have to wait-and-see, with fingers crossed and proper sacrifices sacrificed, if I can get a late 5th rounder's production out of him or not.
[03/12 Update: Looks like Helton is playing and is 3-for-3 with a R, so maybe I can have a glimmer of hope for the best case scenario...]
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| 78 | jtserb
Dude
ID: 31010716
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:12
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5.15, Bobby Jenks, RP, CHW
Kind of a homer pick here, I needed a closer as the run had already started along time ago. Jenks has had some soreness in his shoulder this spring, but it has been said he will be alright. He had a horrible second half last year, but really the whole Sox pitching staff did and he just seemed to follow suit. The kid has amazing stuff, but he does walk a few to many batters. Im just hoping he holds the job all year and he should net 35 to 40 saves
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| 79 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:15
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for filthy:
5.16 Jered Weaver, SP, Ana
I didn't get a chance to reset my queue due to a busy weekend, and Jered Weaver just happened to be left from my previous long queue. I initially was gonna see if I could change it, but after looking around, Weaver was still pretty appealing to me. I really wanted a closer, but wasnt ready to go with some of the ones that were left, a gamble that didn't burn me thankfully. I might have to play it safe on some later picks but for now I'm going with my gut trying to find some upside. Go big or go home.
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| 80 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 12:16
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Continue to next thread for rounds 6-10
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