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0 Subject: RIBC 2007: Draft Rationales (rounds 11-15)

Posted by: Trip
- Leader [13961611] Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 20:32

Continuing for the next five rounds.

Rationales for Rounds 1-5

Rationales for Rounds 6-10
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32Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:51
for Dave R
12.12 - Brad Hawpe, OF, COL

In his first full major league season, Hawpe posted 22 HR's, 84 RBI's, scored 67 runs and posted an impressive OPS of .898. Playing in Coors is definitely a plus.

The big problem is he struggles against lefties. Maybe this is the year he puts it all together, non the less good value in round 12.

33Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:53
12.13 - Coco Crisp, OF, BOS

Crisp has been at the top of my draft list for a while, even over Chris Young, whom I chose two rounds ago. I avoided him because I already project myself with a nice lead in the steals category. He was banged up a good bit of last year, but he has had a decent eye at the plate - he doesn't walk that much but does have the potential to be a .300 hitter and shouldn't drag down my team OBP. It is also nice to have a bat in the productive BoSox lineup, where he should score a ton of Runs and knock in a few as well.
34Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:40
12.14 John Patterson, SP, WAS
There were still a lot of good pitchers on the board. I just had the feeling an SP run would be taking place as managers start filling their remaining pitching slots with starters. I considered taking either Andy Pettitte or Ervin Santana. They would have been the safer choices and probably would have benefited me more in the wins category. Instead, I chose John Patterson because he had the greatest potential. At this point of the draft, I was willing to take the risk. I'm hoping he stays healthy and makes his 30 starts.
35StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:44
12.15 Josh Beckett, SP, Bos

I really don’t know how this next round is going to go, but choices at the hitting and pitching positions are both thinning. I still have lots of targets at hitter, but taking Dave Roberts last pick really changed my plans and while I don’t regret the Torres pick I do wish I would have gone another direction than Roberts. I have a couple of picks that I think are fairly safe sleepers, although one of them could go earlier, hard to tell. Compared to the top pitchers available though, there probably won’t be much left when it gets back to me. Seeing Encarnacion and Quentin go was one thing, but then picks 12.02 to 12.05 really sealed it towards pitching. It’s all about choices, and the least I can do is to thin the pitcher pool to make it tougher on those waiting for pitching. However, if Chavez is still sitting there begging to be picked then I will have to go that direction. He just has too much upside to let slide any further compared to who is still available at hitting. At this point in time I think just about any hitter carries some risk. Among the hitter options

Based on the quality of remaining pitchers to hitters and my sleeper OF still available I am probably going to take more pitching and probably double up on it. Philsphan isn’t likely to take pitching, but even if he does there are still a few guys I like and I’m sure to get 2 of them. I’ll pick the more well known one first if available and that is Beckett. I was looking hard at Patterson, but Athletics Guy saved me the worries that come with him. Beckett has his own troubles, but pitching on Boston he will get wins. I can’t predict what kind of season he will have, but I see no reason he can’t rebound and put up good numbers in K’s and whip which is what I want. Rebound seems to be a popular theme in my players, and that can’t be a good thing to count on too much of that.
36Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:56
for Philsphan:
12.16 Orlando Hudson, 2B, ARI
Well, it’s time to pick some middle infielders. I have had Hudson on my radar for a couple of rounds, and frankly, the way these guys have been going off the board, I was a bit surprised to see Hudson still around. But I’ll take him here. There’s not much left to choose from. But if he can give me 80+ R and 10 SB’s, I will not complain. I think the one single frustration for me in this draft so far is watching so many MI’s go off the board so soon. I can’t name all the picks that I thought went 2, 3 or 4 rounds early. That is partly why I went after my starters so soon. We’ll see how this strategy goes, but better to act than to be acted upon.

13.01 Rich Aurilia, SS, SFO

I took Aurilia knowing that Khalil Greene was still available. But Greene was so far down my charts I was not going to spend a 12th round pick on him (a 14th maybe!).

He’s going to 1B in SF, but I will take his SS versatility. I confess I did not check his progress very well other than to know that SF has had problems getting a good 1B since McCovey. If I had known then that he may be batting later in the order (he was originally slated for the 3-hole) I might have passed. It’s clear I took him pretty early when compared to the other drafts going on, but I put myself in this position so I will have to live with this strategy.

Despite these 2 picks, I still think I am in relatively good shape. My OPS and SLG are still solid, and I really like where my starting pitching is. Time to start filling in the remaining spots…

37StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:59
13.02 Scott Olsen, SP, FL

I actually wanted Scott Olsen more than Beckett, but figured philsphan would be less likely to take him than Olsen if he even took a pitcher at all. I have Olsen rated higher than either RJ or Mussina (both taken) and he comes with more upside, although probably more risk of not meeting projections. Pitching on what I consider a weak FL team is not going to help his cause, but it is a pitchers park and he has a high K rate, low era, and low whip. He’s only done it for one year though, so there is considerable risk. A questionable bullpen could cost him some wins and ER as well, but at this point in the draft the reward is greater than the risk to me. Among the hitters remaining it was tough to pass on Ibanez as he still seems to get it done and is batting cleanup.
38Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 19:57
13.03 Raul Ibanez, OF, SEA
It's strange being the last manager without an outfielder. In past RIFC leagues, I've taken OFs very early. In fact, I think this is the first time in which I didn't select one in the 1st round. Instead of having Abreu as my usual #1 outfielder, I'll have to settle for Raul Ibanez this season. I don't expect him to match his numbers from 2006, but I don't expect a big dropoff either. He's always been an .800+ OPS player and I don't see any reason why he won't be able to do that again. Ibanez should be able to produce 90 R and 90 RBI. I can't really ask for more than that.
39Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 20:08
13.04

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40Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 21:45
for Dave R:
13.05 Akinori Otsuka, RP, Tex
At this point in the draft it seems a good spot to grab set up men. Otsuka averaged better than a K/inning, excellent ratios, and 32 saves after taking over the closer role at Texas last year.

In the off season, Texas signed Gagne, meaning a demotion back to a set up man for Otsuka. But Gagne isn't without risk, basically losing the last two seasons due to injury. Even if he were to remain healthy for the full season, I would imagine that the Rangers will handle him gingerly, giving a fair amount of save opportunities to Otsuka.

Gagne is already experiencing tendernous in his elbow this spring. Worst case scenario, 10-12 saves for Otsuka, best case, full time closer at some point.

41Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 21:46
13.06 Corey Hart, OF, Mil
Well both Hart and Granderson made it back to me for round 13. The other player I was eyeing for this pick was Orlando Hudson but he was picked at the turn by Philsfan. Great pick, the more I looked at his stats the more I wish I took him at 12.11. Compare Hudson’s 2006 numbers to Barfield who went four rounds earlier, or even Cano who went 8 rounds earlier.

I didn’t really know how to value Corey Hart. He had a great finish to 2006, and averaged 15 HR’s and 22 steals the past three seasons. Every site I could find has him starting in RF, with Jenkins/Mench in a platoon in LF. If he gets 500 PA he’ll easily be worth a 13th round selection. I hope that isn’t too big of an if. I decided that I really wanted him on my team and didn’t want to take a chance that he would get drafted by someone else in the long delay between my picks.
42Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 22:06
for Bags
13.07 - Aubrey Huff, OF/3B, TB

Huff will be my CI. I have read that he will hit 5th. He will be in a good position to reach 100 RBI. One of my big concerns is if he gets off to a slow start he could find himself in a platoon. Not really a lot of sure things when you are picking from the bottom of the CI barrel.
43Peter N.
ID: 5027160
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 22:18
13.08 Mike Gonzalez, RP, ATL
placeholder
Atlanta traded a solid player in Adam Laroche in exchange for Mike Gonzalez in the offseason. He was sidelined with an elbow injury for the last part of the season, but comes into this season healthy and ready to go. I originally targeted Otsuka with this pick, but had to go to plan B after Dave R picked him. Gonzalez is the setup man and quite frankly, I just don't see Wickman staying healthy. Gonzalez has proved that he can be a closer to depend on. He'll get the shot if Wickman should falter or get hurt. At worst, I get a guy who should give me a solid boost in ERA, WHIP, and Ks.
44blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 00:10
13.09 Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD

Broxton is great, and he's behind Takashi Saito, who is old. This is clearly early, but it's a bit of a middle reliever run lately. Witness Mike Gonzalez, one pick before, although that's due to speculation on my own closer Wickman. At this point, there weren't a whole lot of hitters I wanted, so I figured a reliever might be worth it. Otsuka would have been a good combination of both worlds, although if I'd drafted him, you could pencil in Gagne for the AL Cy Young.

Also considered Scot Shields (who would handcuff my K-Rod) or David Weathers (who I actually have a bit of faith in). Interestingly, I also let Weathers slide with my next pick.
45holt
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 01:39
13.10 Ervin Santana SP LAA

placeholder
If Santana can start pitching well on the road he's going to be huge this year. I'll only be starting him at home until he turns this around:

2006
home: 10-2 3.02 era
away: 6-6 5.95 era

2005
home: 9-3 3.18 era
away: 3-5 7.44 era

I got him last year in the 17th rd, and he carried a 16-8 record along with a 1.23 whip and 141 K's. a bargain. he's still a great bargain this year in the 13th rd. his 7.99 H/9 was second only to the other Santana in the A.L.

reports are that he has tightened his slider and improved his changeup this year. that didn't hurt my decision any. just thankful everyone let him slide so long.

"That's one of my goals, getting better every year," Santana said. "Try to be the best -- I have the stuff to do it."

46Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 01:42
13.11 ~ Andy Pettitte, SP, NYY

I figured I would be able to nab a solid MR at this point, and was targeting Zumaya, Otsuka, Gonzalez, Broxton, and Shields. When the first four players were gone, I should have realized that Shields wouldn’t make it through the next turn … so I missed him too. But Pettitte was a very viable option at this time.

After taking chances on breakout candidates Harang and Snell, Pettitte offers a little consistency. He finished '06 in top form. He's going from a stadium that increases RH HR by 35% to one that increases them by just 5%. He won’t get me to the top of the leaderboard in K’s, but he gets me closer.
47Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 09:04
13.12 Freddy Garcia, SP, Phi

Starting pitching will be my weakness, and heading into this pick, my short list included Ervin Santana, Andy Pettitte, and Freddy Garcia. Anthony Reyes was also a consideration, and possibly has more upside, but durability concerns caused me to put him behind Garcia.

Freddy moves to the NL, where mediocre pitchers go to become stars. Even in a hitters’ park, I’m expecting Garcia to post better numbers than last year. 15 wins, 1.25 WHIP, low 4s ERA, and 150 Ks is probably greedy enough, though.
48Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 09:29
13.13, Scott Podsednik, OF, CHW

I should have picked a pitcher again. There were only a few big-time steals guys left.....all of them will kill your OPS. Plus I think he'll score a lot of runs. This guy always kills me in my head-to-head leagues. He's good for 6 or 7 steals the week he plays me, and single-handedly wins that category.

I passed on starters Reyes, Lowe, Maine, James, and Sanchez in hopes they would return for my 15th round pick. I had two middle relievers in mind, and I thought one might make it to me 6 picks later with my 14th round pick. Shields was picked, so I took Wheeler with my next pick.

At this point, I have a lot of projected saves and steals. Just as planned. My hope is to build up a big lead in these categories, and later trade for someone who can help my other categories. I’m sure someone will get injured or benched and mess that up, but that’s my plan for now.

49Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 10:08
for KKB:
13.14 Scot Shields, RP, LAA
I wasn't sure if I wanted to fill in another SP or RP at this point. I briefly considered filling some other positions, but have some backup plans for them if I don't get the players I have my eye on. When I checked the Draft Grid and saw both people behind me with 3 starters each and only 3 RP between them, I figured RP before SP and hope that neither of the guys behind me decides to beef up their SP corps with Bonser, who I'm targeting right about now.

So, once I was in the market for a RP, I decided to look for a guy that I really wanted. Opportunity to become the closer really wasn't on my mind too much because I've made those kinds of picks in previous RIBC drafts only to have them never pan out. Thus, I wanted good ratios, particularly a good K/9, and some W opportunity.

If it's not obvious by now why I took Shields, his 3-year averages are 8 W, 9.20 K/9, 2.94 ERA, and 1.159 WHIP. I'm basically expecting more of the same from him and will be more than happy if he can perform at that level for 90+ IP.

Finally, with Shields having been taken at an average slot of 167.86, I don't feel like I'm reaching for a pick.
50Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 10:12
for JTSERB:
13.15 B.J. Upton 3B TAM
51Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 10:15
for filthy:
13.16 J.J. Hardy, SS, MIL
A little MI depth here. His stats have been nothing to write home about, but the Brewers seem to be high on him. In his rookie season, he tore it up in the second half once he got adjusted, and last year he didn't have much chance to find a groove before injury, and he's doing well so far in Spring Training. If he can even come close to what he did post ASB 2005, I will be a very happy guy.

14.01 Anthony Reyes, SP, STL
Probably gonna be a little inconsistent and drive me crazy, but the upside can't be ignored. See, 2006 World Series Game One, Minor League Career. Having a good spring and should finally see a rotation spot this year. He's got a bit of experience now and is primed for a breakout season.

52Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 10:16
for JTSERB:
14.02 Joe Crede, 3B, CWS
53Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 10:21
for KKB:
14.03 Boof Bonser, SP, MIN
As it turns out, I think I may have gotten lucky that Boof made it back to me as the other pitcher I had considered with him (Reyes) got selected between my picks. No matter, I still got Boof.

Boof's going to be MIN's fourth starter and I expect that to help him in the W column as he should be facing some inferior opponents. He was servicable in his first stint with the Twins in 2006, putting up 7 wins, with a 4.22 ERA, 1.276 WHIP, and 7.54 K/9. I'm fully expecting him to get better this year.

As Rotowire alludes to, his Post ASB numbers are the key to this expectation: 5-4, 3.62 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 7.93 K/9. THESE are the numbers I'm expecting him to improve upon and I think Rotowire's projections of 13 W, 8.30 K/9, 3.91 ERA, and 1.275 might be a bit conservative. I think he could actually reach 15 W, 8.5 K/9, 3.75 ERA, and 1.2 WHIP.

No matter what, I drafted Boof on Rotowire's projections and will be fine with them. I'm just expecting more.
54Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 11:02
14.04 Dan Wheeler, RP, HOU

Definitely needed a pitcher here. Had 4 starters in mind, and took a reliever here, hoping one would come 24 picks later. (None did). This pick really has a lot to do with Brad Lidge. He has tremendous stuff, but has been messing up lately. He's not doing that well in spring training even after working with Nolan Ryan over the winter. Wheeler had 9 saves last year. I'm hoping he gets the same or more. His ERA and WHIP are nice and he gets about 1 K per inning. Plus he plays for Houston.
55Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 11:17
14.05 Derek Lowe, SP, LAD

Lowe isn’t the type of pitcher I target in this league, because he doesn’t get enough strikeouts. But he should make solid contributions in three categories, and at this point I think he’s the best value pick – especially for a team that had only two starters until this point. With Anthony Reyes recently picked, Lowe was the only starter left on my short list, and if he’d have disappeared, I would probably have looked in a different direction.
56Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:07
14.06 ~ Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET

The leadoff hitter for the Detroit Tigers is still available in the 14th round? Well, maybe not … but their catcher is. There have been experiments using Pudge as the leadoff hitter, and so far it’s been successful. Wherever Pudge bats on Opening Day is fine with me, because I’ll still be getting positive numbers at the catcher position. He’s 35 years old, but still shows little decline, and he should be good for 10-14 HRs and 7 SB.
57blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:35
For Holt
14.07 Chris Duncan, OF, STL

Some picks hit, some miss. No telling how this one will work out. His defensive skills and crappiness vs. lefties will keep his AB's down, but his #'s last year were too good to overlook: 22HR .363/.589 60r 43 rbi in only 280 ab's those #'s are a lot better than his past performance in the minors, but his spring #'s of .358/.553 (also leads the team in HR and RBI) give me enough confidence to gamble that his game really has developed (age 25). granted, he hit in front of pujols last year and will probably hit 5th this year, but name any other players that were available this late who have a realistic chance of .900+ OPS.

I was also looking at anthony reyes or I-Rod for this pick but they had just gone off the board.

58blue hen
ID: 472431014
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:41
14.08 Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA

As noted, the draft is clearly on a different level now than it was a couple rounds ago. Hermida, who was perhaps the top prospect in baseball recently, was the best impact player remaining. He hasn't shown much power, but even when struggling, he's shown great plate discipline. Rotowire projects him at a .392 OBP, and obviously I'd be quite happy with that. He could even steal a few bases. For my fourth outfielder, that's about all I could ask.

Also considered taking David Weathers, due to close in Cincy. He's the last guy with a solid hold on a closer position, although it's not THAT solid. I also wish I'd thought about Daniel Cabrera, who was my top pitcher and went 15 picks later. Cabrera will have a great year this year.
59Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:33
for Peter N.:
14.09 Brad Penny, SP, LAD
With starting pitchers flying off the board, I decided that the time was right to get my 3rd man. The question with Penny has always been about staying healthy. When he's healthy, he's easily a top 30 pitcher. I'm banking on him being healthy this year. Pitching in a pitcher's park is a nice bonus as well. Penny was one of the few guys left with a solid strikeout rate. I'm expecting around 15 wins, ERA under 4 and WHIP around 1.250 out of him.
60Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:33
for Bags:
14.10 David Weathers, RP, CIN
With this pick I am officially acquiring closers who could be out of a job by June. The only thing I can count on from Weathers is a crappy ERA and WHIP. With any luck he'll make it through the year as the closer. This sucks!
61Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:56
14.11 Curtis Granderson, OF, Det

As I hoped Curtis Granderson made it back to me. He doubled my collection of 2nd year Tigers, the only player missing is Justin Verlander.

I think Granderson is due for a big improvement in 2007. The Tigers relied on him a lot last season, and he just wore down as the season went on. In the first half he had an OPS of .829 and 7 steals, in the 2nd half it was .701 with 1 steal.

I expect him to make adjustments and not strike out as much. It’s early in spring training, but so far he’s only struck out once in 28 AB’s. Last year he K’d in about 25% of his plate appearances. My projections have him with an .805 OPS and 11 steals. I’d wager money he beats both projections. His runs should also spike upward as the Tigers have a legitimate 3 hitter this season.
63Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 19:52
for Dave R
14.12 - Mike Jacobs, 1B, FL

Streaky hitter with 30 HR, 100 RBI potential. Jacobs muscled out 27 HR's and 93 RBI's last year, with a SLG % of .473, all in 469 AB's.

Last year he was in a somewhat platoon situation, this year he has the spot all to himself. I needed another CI and am real happy he was available in round 14

64Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 19:59
14.13 - Austin Kearns, OF, WAS
15.08 - Chris Iannetta, C, COL

I decided I did not want to wait until the last round like I did last year, and did not want to miss out on Iannetta. I told myself I would draft him 2 rounds after Russ Martin Was selected and I still ended up waiting 4. I still might have been able to wait, but didn't want to risk it. The Rockies release d (undrafted) and the job is Iannetta's alone. If the had released him before most of the rankings came out, Iannetta would not have been around here. When I add 100 ABs to his projections, Iannetta came in a hair behind Martin and in front of Michael Barrett. IMHO, those were the last two catchers on the board who could contribute in a positive manner.
65Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 21:56
14.14 John Maine, SP, NYM

John Maine was one of my better FA pickups last year, so I don't mind having him on my team again. In his 15 starts, he held opposing hitters to a .212 average. His 7.1K/9 strikeout ratio was impressive too. Chances are Maine's numbers will drop off a bit this time around as hitters become more familiar with his stuff. But he still plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. And the run support should be there. My projected numbers for Maine: 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 160 K's and 12-15 Wins.
66StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 22:10
14.15 Michael Barrett, C, Cubs

I was worried that Corey Hart wouldn’t make it back to me, but I still thought he should. I still think both of my pitchers from last round are safer picks than Hart would have been for me, but not sure they were the best value, which of course the draft is all about. By the time it comes back to me I figure the intervening picks will pretty much determine my player. Still lots of ways I can go and while some of the players left could have breakout years, predicting them is a roll of the dice.

I’ve been looking things over and think I should take a hitter here. After a bit of looking around I’m thinking I should take Barrett here. Certainly he’ll be gone before he gets back to me in round 16. His main attraction is that his slg numbers are good, should get 50-60 rbis and runs scored, has a good obp and plays in a good lineup that could add to those totals if he repeats last year’s performance but stays healthy.

The other option would be to take Ianetta, but I'd rather go with the proven numbers.
67Philsphan
Donor
ID: 301442416
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 22:43
14.16, Scott Linebrink, RP, SD
Well, the closers are pretty much done, and I would like to shore up my ERA and WHIP. Linebrink has been subject to trade rumors all spring. I was hoping he would make it to Philly, but personally I didn’t like who the Phils were offering, so I’m glad that deal didn’t go through. This pick is pure differentiation for me. The hope here is that Hoffman, who is 70 years old, may break down. Then I have 2 closers. Or (more likely?) he gets traded to a team in need of a closer. If not, I have a sub 3.00 ERA/1.2 WHIP guy on my staff. What’s not to like.

15.01 Khalil Greene, SS, SD
Excuse Mr. Greene, you said you play shortstop? Fine, you’re on my team.

I don’t care what he does. The search to fill that position has finally ended, and right now that is reward enough. And really, I think this guy has some upside. If he stays healthy for a whole year (which he has yet to do), this will be a real value pick.
68StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 22:49
15.02 Jeff Francoeur, OF, ATL

With this pick I am looking at Jeff Francoeur. His biggest knock is a dismal obp. It is so bad that I am hesitating on taking him myself, but when I look at other options nothing really jumps out. He did manage a .335 obp in his limited first year, so maybe he can climb to that level anyway. Still hard to pass on 100rbis and 90runs with good slg numbers at this point in the draft. Might be able to offset him somewhat with a good obp guy later on, but I’m not hopeful. I’m sure he won’t make it back around and not sure I can find any hidden gems that would be better. He seems to be trying a different approach at the plate this year and going with the pitch and hitting to right field. Whatever he is doing he better just keep doing it as he is hitting over .400 for average in spring training! If he gets that obp up to .360 he will be a huge steal right here IMO. If not, I'm still happy.
69Athletics Guy
ID: 281162612
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 22:53
15.03 Tim Hudson, SP, ATL

I've had my eyes on Tim Hudson for quite a while. Looking at where he was taken in the other drafts, I tried to wait as long as possible. I was really glad to still see him available in the 15th round and felt I couldn't wait any longer. Hudson's value has obviously taken a big hit after a disasterous 2006 season. I know that couldn't have been the same Hudson I watched during all those years in Oakland. He should still have a couple good years left in him, and 2007 will be one of them. I'm expecting a big comeback year from him. A 15-Win/3.50 ERA/1.30 WHIP season would not surprise me at all.
70Trip
Leader
ID: 13961611
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 00:50
15.04 - Anibal Sanchez, SP, FL

As much as I dislike drafting a Marlins' hitter, I should be equally as optimistic as drafting a Marlins pitcher. While we are being optimistic, here are three of Anibal's top 10 comparables...Tom Seaver(#1), Wade Miller, Ben Sheets. Pitchers like Sanchez are why I delayed on pitching earlier in the draft.
71Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 10:23
for Dave R:
15.05 Chuck James SP Atl
Fully intended to grab Iannetta here ( since Trip grabbed Sanchez ), but thought there was chance he would make it back to me.

Wrong. So not only did Trip grab Anibal out from under my nose with the prior pick, he snared Iannetta via a trade a few picks later.

At this point I had only 3 starters, and I thought a catcher could wait. Still waiting 3 rounds later. I had James ranked as next best pitcher on the board ( along with Jennings who I got 2 rounds later )

James went 11-4 as a starter last year and should have cemented his spot as 2nd starter for Atlanta, behind Smoltz. He posted a fine ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.244, and K'd over 7.5 batters in 9 innings. All in 119 innings.

72Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 10:25
15.06 Daniel Cabrera, SP, Bal
I continued the mini-starting pitcher run by taking Daniel Cabrera. Before my 14th round pick I made a list of young pitchers with “K” upside. Cabrera was one of six pitchers on the list. Two others were Anibal Sanchez and Chuck James.

Cabrera was one of only two starting pitchers left on my board that is projected to average more than 8 K/9. Obviously he’s had issues in the past with walks. Hopefully Leo Mazzone’s magic works with Cabrera this season.
73Bags
ID: 2500120
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 10:58
15.07 Shane Victorino, OF, PHI

I was in desperate need of an outfielder with a pulse. He is hitting 2nd so he should score some runs. Looking at his minor league stats he had good stolen base numbers, OBP, and SLG averages. He has had some good number this spring, I hope that this translates to a good season.
74Peter N.
ID: 490381517
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 12:22
15.08 Austin Kearns, OF, WAS(via trade)

I saw Trip post that Kearns was up for a pick and my next pick was going to be on an outfielder. When I looked at the remaining outfielders, none of them really excited me. I also wanted to try and get one more outfielder with some pop. Kearns should do just fine for me if he can stay healthy. He had a career year last year posting new highs in home runs, RBIs, runs and even steals. I've always been a fan of his and so I guess I have some bias towards trading for him. He should be a solid number 3 outfielder for me nonetheless
75blue hen
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 12:45
15.09 Ted Lilly SP CHC

Interestingly enough, I agonized for this pick quite a bit. I saw it coming a mile away. There were three great starting pitchers left, and two great hitters. The hitters were Moises Alou and Jim Edmonds, the pitchers were Daniel Cabrera, Ted Lilly, and Doug Davis. The hitters had been passed over due to age and injury concerned but had previously been among the very best players in the game. The pitchers were all strikeout guys, but also had some control issues. Cabrera went right before my pick. He was my first choice of the five, but I figured he might last a while. My hitting slots are filled up pretty well, so it came down to Davis vs. Lilly

Both ex-Blue Jay pitchers have recently upped their strikeout rates to sensational levels. Both will also be playing for new teams this season - Lilly with the Cubs and Davis with the Diamondbacks. Both are moving from mostly neutral ballparks to hitter havens. But Lilly is moving from the AL East (where David Ortiz and Jason Giambi served as Designated Hitters) to the NL Central, where people like Kip Wells and Jason Jennings are the hitting pitchers to be feared. As it turned out, I got Davis a round later, but Lilly was clearly the choice here.
76holt
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 12:46
15.10 Bobby Crosby SS OAK
what can I say? I still didn't have a SS. I hope he's healthy and everything comes together for him. he has the talent to be a 25/25 guy. .350/.500 are possible (not likely). if he's a bust I have other options. I just prefer to draft someone with some potential over someone who has a low ceiling like undrafted, undrafted, undrafted, and undrafted.

also considered wigginton here, and shealy or edmonds to some extent.

77Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 12:47
15.11 ~ David DeJesus, OF, KC

I only have 2 of my 4 OF slots filled. DeJesus has a high OBP and a bit of speed at the top of the KC batting order. Kansas City actually has some decent hitters this season. Hopefully they’ll bring DeJesus home for 90 runs this season.
78Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:23
15.12 Eric Byrnes, OF, Ari

There seem to be some respectable outfielders still available, and I’ve still got plenty of room for several of them. Eric Byrnes has had a torrid spring, hitting over .500, and it appears he may be the leadoff hitter for the Dbacks this year, which should give him ample opportunities to swipe bases (25 last year). His OBP is low (.312) for a leadoff hitter, however, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Consensus projections are 78-70-20-.320-.460. The ratios aren’t great, but if he can deliver 20 steals, I can absorb the percentages. There are several other outfielders I considered here who would produce better percentages, but who would not deliver many steals. For a change (vs. prior years), I have a few base stealers on my roster, and I want to be sure that I’m not overlooking that stat as I fill my final few starting hitters. In round 15, I think I’m getting decent value, and not overpaying for the SB potential.
79Building 7
ID: 571192610
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 14:00
15.13 Kei Igawa, SP, NYY

I really sweated this one out. Since I only had one starter and everyone else had 3 or 4, and a couple people had 5. My other 4 choices weren’t going to make it back to me, so I went looking for someone who could get K’s and found this guy. The former Japanese strikeout champ. There were still about 6 people to pick yet. If I had seen Bluehen’s offer to trade down in time, I would have wanted to do that.

I remember there was a huge deal for the Japanese guy that went to Boston, and then this similar deal kind of went under the radar. It seems these Japanese guys do real good for a year or two in the US and then, not so well. Clemens was my 2nd choice here. Don’t know much about this guy, but certainly worth the risk in the 15th round when you only have one starter on your roster.
80KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 354152921
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 14:32
15.14 Wes Helms, 3B, PHI
In all honesty, I wanted Ryan Shealy with this pick, but that's what happens when you type your queue instructions just a bit too fast and tell Guru to take the top 3B in your list instead of the top CI in your list. Ugh!

Still, I'm not COMPLETELY unhappy with this pick; more like frustrated that I missed having Shealy. Helms will still be a step above serviceable as my CI filler. He clearly has a starting job, so Rotowire's projections of 332 AB are probably a little low. Keeping Rotowire's projection rates, with 450 ABs, Helms would be projected at 73 RBI, 51 R, 0 SB, and an .867 OPS.

Realistically, if he can just maintain a .867 OPS, I think he'll get plenty of AB to fill in the RBI and R and that's all I want from him.

Still, Shealy would have been nice at this pick... Ugh!
81filthy
ID: 172581511
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:32
for JTSerb:
15.15, Moises Alou, OF, NYM
82filthy
ID: 172581511
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:36
15.16, Noah Lowry, SP, SF
Pretty nice lefty, should benefit from having Zito around, not only for taking pressure off but learning a few tips. His offseason sounded pretty productive, and hopefully that will keep him on the field all year this year. Former first round pick should be entering his prime any year now, hopefully it's this one.
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