Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 10:25
RIBC Managers: This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1
blue hen Leader
ID: 710321114 Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 11:06
My strategy is the same every year: - Get a good base and find some nice sleepers. - Win on-base percentage. - Don't shy away from injury-prone players. - Draft Mark Prior. - Make trades and acquisitions during the season.
Last season, I finished 7th in RIBC and was selected back into the league. The best way to look at this draft is to compare it to last year.
In 2006, my first four picks were Todd Helton, Adam Dunn, Mark Prior, and Eric Gagne. In 2007, my first four picks were David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez, and Vernon Wells. Obviously, I have a much better base than I did last year.
In 2006, my middle infielders were David Eckstein, Luis Castillo, and Yuniesky Betancourt. In 2007, my middle infielders are David Eckstein, Luis Castillo, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Chris Burke. This is an improvement, obviously.
In 2006, I found great sleepers after the fourth round, who performed like fourth-round or higher players. These include Joe Mauer (5th), Jason Giambi (6th), Bobby Jenks (7th), Garrett Atkins (9th), Justin Morneau (10th), Frank Thomas (18th), and J.J. Putz (waivers). I don't think I have quite the sleepers this year. The top ones are Willy Taveras (10th), Morgan Ensberg (8th), Chris Burke (12th), Dan Johnson (21st), and Luis Gonzalez (22nd). The upside isn't quite as high as the guys from last year.
Overall, I think I'll be fine. I led the RIBC in transactions last year and I intend to do it again this year.
The teams to fear are StLCards, Guru, and Holt. The worst team is Mach.
Good luck this year, and may the best team win.
2
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 15023167 Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 11:35
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? In previous years, I've had a very clear plan, but my only overall plan this year was to concentrate on OPS for hitters and ERA/WHIP and K/9 for pitchers. Being in the 14th slot, this seemed to be the only strategy I'd be able to execute consistently and I think I did.
Using Rotowire projections, with some minor modifications, my team is projected to have a .368 OBP, .485 SLG, 3.49 ERA, and 1.205 WHIP. All four of those stats would have been 1st place last year, some by more than a little bit. If my team actually manages to achieve those stats, that could be 64 points just from four categories. Because that's coming from ratios, it's VERY likely the rest of the stats would follow and even with average finishes in every other category (7 points), that could be 106 points, which would have had me well in contention last year.
Now the stats just have to work out. ;) Still, I like the way my team is set up because I think the counting stats will indeed follow the ratio stats and I think the ratio stats will be there.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Favorites: Carpenter (anchors my pitching), Zimmerman (breakout potential), Markakis (breakout potential), Blake/Iwamura/Rincon ("The Plan")
Do Over: Quentin (potential injury), Helton (potential injury), Bedard (probably could have gotten later), Helms (fine, but wanted Shealy)
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? In no particular order (draft order): DallasHomer, ttucowboy, Tosh, Guru, jtserb
4. What surprised you most about the draft? Honestly, nothing. This is my 4th RIBC and I feel like I've seen it all. I suppose, if anything it was how fast the draft finished. But as far as strategy, picks, etc. I've come to expect it all.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Yes, I wouldn't draft Helton as high as I did and I'd submit some numbers to try to get me a better draft slot. Other than that, I'm quite pleased with my team, especially considering my draft slot.
3
Philsphan Donor
ID: 301442416 Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 11:49
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Since I was picking first and would have Albert Pujols, my plan was to build around SLG and OPS. I felt that being solid in those categories would spill over into R and RBI. I did not plan on getting into the SB race only because the base stealers I identified would really weigh down the 2 ratios too much. I didn’t think that was a good tradeoff. Even so I did take Juan Pierre, but by then I had my SLG foundation solid enough to absorb his low ratios.
I also decided to take SP’s early. My theory was that last year’s WBC wreaked havoc on pitcher schedules, and several of them had off years as a result. This year, with things back on regular schedules, the pitchers as a whole should be stronger. And I think they have been generally undervalued in drafts as well. So I thought I would have an advantage by getting pitchers early. I also thought I could pass on the closers, considering the fact that so many teams have not decided on them and my draft position was not conducive to participating in any closer run. I will scour the wire as I need to for them. As I am sure everyone else will do.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? I liked Giambi in the 4th round. I was very pleased to see him still there. I am very happy with my top 4 starting pitchers. To have Zambrano, Smoltz, Arroyo and Mussina all on my team should be a lot of fun. We’ll see how this works out. I’ve never tried this strategy before.
This group was so strong in that regard that I really struggled in the middle and late rounds. Every pick was a challenge. There were no sleeper players for me to sit back on and wait for the right time to get them. I especially regret not getting Shane Victorino, but I was in a tough spot with no MI in the 15th round. So I had to pass on him.
Jay Payton was a mistake. I was thinking somebody else there. He’ll be released soon enough, I’m sure. I probably could have skipped an SP for an MI early on, but we’ll see in the end how that plays out.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Athletics Guy just impressed me with consistently strong picks in the middle-to-late rounds. Guru as always has a strong team. I think he has the best offense. Holt is very strong too. Last year in AAA, I thought Filthy’s team was very weak after the draft. He won, so what do I know? I wouldn’t count Filthy out either.
4. What surprised you most about the draft? The constant middle infielder runs just didn’t make sense to me. There had to be at least 10 players picked 2-4 rounds earlier than I would have even considered taking them. Maybe I missed the boat there.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? I’m not sure. I am weak in MI and Saves, but that was a conscious trade-off to get better SP’s. Catcher will be a revolving door, more than likely.
Good luck to everybody. This was a great draft. This is the strongest league I have ever been in for sure.
4
Building 7 Sustainer
ID: 171572711 Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 15:55
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
This is my third roto type team ever. I think I’ve developed a strategy based on RIBC rules. I usually play in Yahoo head-to-head leagues. So far, I have had a knack of picking up a starting pitcher for the next day by looking at the slate of candidates (usually 7 or 8 guys) and selecting the optimum one. Often I will get rid of him after his start. I will probably use 20 or more different starting pitchers thru the year. Somehow I finished 2nd in ERA with this strategy in AAA. By only carrying 3 or 4 starters there is room on my bench for more subs. I wouldn't recommend this strategy for other people though. I like picking up free agents. For me, there is usually an abundance of middle relievers, starters, catchers, and outfielders on the free agent wire. I concentrate my draft on the other positions.
Contrary to some opinion, I think you can gain ground in the % categories later in the year. Where it is harder to gain ground is in the counting categories. This is why I go for steals and saves in the draft. I will pay up for those two items. I always try to get at least 3 closers and 2 big-time steal guys. I try to build up a lead in these categories and then later in the year I can trade a closer or steal guy and get something of value in return. That strategy seemed to work in AA and AAA, not so sure about RIBC. I think I did execute my strategy.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
2.04 #20 Manny 5.11 #77 McCann 8.04 #116 Isringhausen 15.11 #237 Igawa…..possible rookie of the year
I had 3 late round picks for a possible closer. If one of those pans out it will be a favorite.
Do over…..Orlando Cabrera in the 11th round. I can’t really see that working out. Maybe Baldelli in the 12th round. He’s injured again already. I never really like these 5 tool guys anyways. (I’m sure I’m in the minority on that one.) I think people overpay for them, although I have no evidence.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Not sure. I thought bags did a good job of picking out of queues for most of the draft. StlCards is kind of scary, because I know he is a good in-season manager. It’s frightening if he is starting out with a good team. But, really I don’t have time to analyze each team. I wouldn’t know what I was doing anyways.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Starting pitching lasted longer than in prior RIBC drafts I have been in. Probably because people are tired of getting burned on wasting a good draft choice on a pitcher that got injured or didn’t do well.
People seemingly punting entire categories. I’ll never understand that, but I’m new at roto. I guess it’s possible to win and come in last in one category. But I don’t understand why one would want to attempt that, except as a last resort.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I’d like to have made at least one trade, just because you can. Some day I’d like to trade my 1st round choice and my 25th for a 4th and a 5th or whatever I can get.
In conclusion, I want to wish everybody good luck on the season, and thanks for a great draft.
5
StLCards Dude
ID: 31010716 Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 19:17
First I'd like to say thanks to Guru for setting up the RIBC and providing the site that allows us to enjoy fantasy sports. Also, thanks to KKB for his On the Clock software.
What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I had a high level strategy entering the draft, but felt I really shouldn't get too fixated on any single approach. Some high level thoughts were:
1) Take hitters on good teams/hitter parks/high scoring offenses and pitchers on good teams or in pitchers' parks. 2) For closer avoid hurting my whip and era, but try to get 3 of them. 3) Only take 3 top starting pitchers and 3 pitchers with upside for a total of 6. 4) Don't chase stolen bases if it will hurt in 3 other categories. 5) Look at yahoo positions and look for players "alternate" positions. 6) Maintain a spreadsheet, but don't get hung up by the projections. 7) Realize that the other managers are all looking at the same things and if I pass on a player don't expect to get him next round. 8) Draft a balanced team that will allow me to take the best player on the board rather than be forced into chasing unfilled positions. 9) Write my rationales as I go and leave queue's if I'm not going to be around when it was my turn. 10) Do not "project" stats onto unproven players or be wowed by single year stats.
Overall I think I adhered to this plan. I do wonder if "balanced" equates to "mediocrity" though. It's hard to go wrong with the top few rounds although you can start seeing draft strategies unfold. Some people going for big power stats right off, some taking steals, infielders, 5 tool types, pitchers. I really would have liked to have had 2 multi-tool (steals) power hitters at any position, but wound up with just one. As part of my planned balanced approach, and Jeter not being available, I went back to getting a top starting pitcher and a top reliever. I have always had questions approaching the draft that way, but overall it has been a successful strategy, although in later rounds I always find myself short in all the hitting categories. That seems to be true again, although those are based on "projections", and several guys like Sheffield are going to outperform projections, or at least I'm counting on that.
What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
One of my favorite picks was getting Glaus to play SS at 5.02 and I also like getting Sheffield at 6.15. Those two will play a big part in my hitting stats. Kent at 9.02 will need to perform like a 1B but at the 2B position. Getting Griffey in the 18th round could be my biggest acquisition if he manages to play most of a season. Not taking Hanley haunted me throughout the draft and taking Roberts at 4.15 was a bit of compensation for not taking Hanley at 3.02. I'm nervous about how well Roberts will do, but would have felt that same with Hanley and at least I have Nathan. My biggest regret might be taking the 2nd draft position instead of the 9th. I probably would have been better off taking two solid hitters which I could have done from the 8th position. One initial draft strategy was to not chase SBs at the expense of other categories and from the 9th spot I could have had Wright/Bay or Beltran/Bay and then I could have passed on both of the Roberts that I took for SBs.
Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
That's always a tough question. I like Sanfordors hitters a lot but he doesn¡¦t have much pitching, Flying Pollack has a good balance of hitting and pitching but not much for saves. Lots of good looking teams but most have a question mark here or there as I mainly look from the 5th or 6th round down. I think maybe jtserb has the team I like most from top to bottom although he could use more steals.
What surprised you most about the draft?
Guru taking Jeter and then Guillen upset me as I wanted one of them, but what surprised me was that he then also took Lopez. I'm not nearly as high on Lopez as most are I suppose. I had hoped to get a bit better pitching but a few other teams had the same thought which surprised me somewhat. Philsphan taking Pierre was a real surprise and I blame that pick leading me to miss out on Freel as it seemed people started again looking at SBs after that pick. I really felt Lopez and Freel would fall further and I had Freel targeted. Not much surprised me during the draft to a great extent, although I will say that the start of round 11 was a real wake up call. I took Kent at the end of round 10 and Torres at the start of round 11. I felt very comfortable doing that as there were so many hitters I knew I could get with my next 2 picks. First E. Encarnacion went, the Quentin (some sleeper he was), but the real killer was Ordonez, Markakis, Baldelli, and Jackson all in a row. It was right then I knew I was in trouble with my outfield. If Griffey plays and Francoeur ups his obp I might be ok.
If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
If I could start the whole thing over I would take the 9th overall pick and build a better hitting core. As it stands I have a lot of veteran (old) players and a lot that need to have bounce back years. What I'm missing is players in their prime that are poised for breakout years. Too early to worry too much and everybody has holes which is why this is a fun league to be in.
6
Peter N.
ID: 490381517 Sat, Mar 24, 2007, 13:13
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
After winning the inaugural RIBC season, I came back the following year and choked. I could not even finish high enough to be invited back. That was an embarrassment and going into this year, I didn’t want a repeat performance of that. Thus, I went back and compared the two drafts and strategies I applied for each season. Well, it did not take me long to realize the difference. In 2005, I went after too much potential. One of my main goals this year was to not reach for too much potential as it cost me in ’05. I had a much better balance of young guys with potential and solid veterans in ’04 and wanted to try and duplicate that this year.
I always like to go big on hitting early and that did not change this year. One new wrinkle I wanted to implement this year was to have a dynamic outfield and take care of some positions with scarcity early. I feel like I did a tremendous job of that getting VMart as my backstop and Tejada as my shortstop. My top two outfielders, Soriano and Young, are both guys that can hit for power and swipe bases so mission accomplished there as well. The early rounds of this draft went very much according to plan.
With this being my third year in RIBC, I have learned at least one thing. That is that with such a short bench, you must have some players with position flexibility. Nady, Swisher, and especially Derosa will all be valuable should an injury occur and I need to move some players around. I feel fortunate getting Kennedy so late as I feel like he can be a solid MI should I have to shift Derosa around. It never hurts to load up on guys with plenty of position eligibility and if anything, I wish I had drafted a few others that fit that billing.
Overall, I feel like I executed my strategy as best as I could in a league this competitive. I wanted to get solid value and not try to reach for any players just because of a run. I feel like I only had one reach in this draft and that was Benitez. Only time will tell though.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite picks in rounds 1-10 were Swisher, Ray, and Weeks. My favorite picks in rounds 11-20 were Blalock, Chavez, and Wang. My favorite picks in rounds 21-25 were McCarthy(big time sleeper of mine) and Kennedy.
I’m not going to question myself before the season starts even though it’s tempting so for now, I have no picks I’d like to do over. :-)
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Two teams that I really like are Dave R’s team and StLCard’s team. Both look like they will be tough to beat.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Well, it should not come as a surprise, but every year, I am continually amazed by how my queue gets destroyed before my turn comes up. I’ve come to learn now that you are better off not even thinking about who you want to draft until you are two or three picks away. Best example I can think of in this draft is when Guru traded up and snatched Lopez. I had had him pegged for round 7 and felt so confident that I would get him. I then read where guru was wanting to trade up and immediately feared the worst. However, when I looked at guru’s team, I saw that he already had 2 SS and didn’t think he was going to go after Lopez. Well, my bad on that one. That pick sent me reeling a bit, but Weeks was a nice consolation.
One thing that shocked me in this draft was the amount of managers reaching on MIs. Maybe I am just stubborn, but each time I came up with MIs flying off the board around me, I just could not bring myself to reach.
I was also a little caught off guard by the traditional “closer run” never really occurring. That was actually a nice surprise.
If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I’ve already said it once, but I’ll say it again. It’s too early to be second-guessing yourself. :-) I can only hope that I have put together a solid team. I feel honored to be apart of RIBC again and want to thank Guru for all that he does. Also, props to KKB for the excellent draft software.
7
Bags
ID: 2500120 Sun, Mar 25, 2007, 22:56
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I had an idea for every pick through the first 10 rounds of what position I would target. My plan from the beginning was to draft Utley in the 1st. I felt with the way that this league is set up you can not have any weak positions up the middle. My 2nd pick would go toward the best available slugger left on the board. I also wanted to draft my first closer by my 4th pick. This is where I might have reached to grab Lidge, just to follow my draft plan. I knew that I would not take a starter befor the 6th round. After the 10th round I just wanted to draft some of my sleepers and fill out my roster.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Some of the pick that I like are: Utley (I have some sort of man-crush on him, I think.) Kendrick ( He could be the 2nd best hitter on the LAA.) Dotel (My best closer?) Victorino ( He should score a ton of runs and get 20+ SB's.)
Some of the picks I don't like will be hitting a waiver wire near you.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
A few of the teams that I like are Fred, Tosh, Dave R, Trip, AthleticsGuy, & StLCards.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I think that this suprised me last year also. I was not ready or expecting the middle relief/back up closer pick whenever one was picked. I guess I didn't have them rated high enough. I guess I can see a stratagy in having a few relievers on your team. Maybe I need to see the light.
Some managers have said they were suprised by MI's going earlier than their projections, I didn't find this to be the case. I really feel in this league you can't win without solid MI's. I guess my willingness to over pay for the MI is what some managers are talking about.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I don't think so. I might have some players that have lost their job already, but at the time it was the pick to make.
Good luck to everyone. I know I'll need it.
8
Trip Leader
ID: 13961611 Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 16:02
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I wanted to fill out my MI early, not be stuck with a weak CI, draft youth over age, load up on hitting early and make sure I paid attention to where I projected in the standings. Last year I didn't stick to my plan of filling out my MI early and regretted it, I stuck to it this year, even though it did throw me out of the closer race (when I went with Furcal over B.J. Ryan). Last year I didn't pay attention to where I was forecasting in the standings and concentrated on value. That left me ahead in steals by a mile but scoring 3-4 in SLG and OBP. My projected standings are posted after this...last year I was too embarrassed to post them...if you don't finish first using your own projections, you are doing something wrong.
I filled out my MI early, landed solid CI, loaded up on hitting, and project 1st with a slim lead over Athletics Guy. This was at the expense of punting saves, as all my late round gambits appear to be for naught. Overall, I am very happy with how my team turned out. It does appear that I underestimated the replacement OBP value when I made my rankings.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorites: Jose Reyes (1.04): I had him at #2 overall Matt Holliday (2.13): You guys will regret letting him fall that far. Alex Gordon (9.04): Him landing the job at the start of the season makes this a bargain. Chris Young (10.13): Chris B. Young may be better than Delmon and went 2 rounds later Chris Ianetta (15.08): Nice to have a solid catcher for a change.
Do-overs: Coco Crisp (12.13): Just not a fan Matt Lindstrom (19.09) Julian Tavarez (20.08) Mike Timlin (21.04)
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? StLCards, DaveR, and Guru all look tough and my projections love Athletics Guy. STL and AG are on the wrong side of 30, and DaveR is the next youngest team to me.
I sprung for a BP subscription this year and incorporated their #s into my database. One of their core metrics is VORP (value over replacement player). I didn't really pay that much attention to it during the draft, and was surprised at how high I ended up. I was also surprised to see Flying Polack with such a high score...I hadn't really noticed his team until I decided to run the stats.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Really, not that much. The only thing I noticed is that there appear to be a few teams who fell into the same trap I did last year and neglected to pay attention to the ratio categories.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Change my draft slot to #1. Seriously though, I am regretting not taking one of the available #15-16 slots.
6. My projections
As stated earlier, if you don't project yourself winning using your own projections, you did something wrong. Of course I am in first place. Also, as stated earlier, I did do something wrong last year and projected myself in the bottom four...and then I ended up coming in second.
To better account for those teams who have a lot of hitters or pitchers on their bench I created the (R+RBI+SB)/AB and K/IP categories.
I don't know how I ended up tops in SB and 11th in RBI while projecting #1 in SLG. While I know blueHen may finish #11 overall :P ...I know he will do better than that in Ks. That's why they play the game...I know.
Average age is included in my projections.
I also am posting BP total VORP team values as well as Breakout, Improve, Attrition and Collapse percentile averages.
10
Trip Leader
ID: 13961611 Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 16:06
Owner
R
RBI
SB
OBP
SLG
R+RBI+SB / AB
W
SAV
K
WHIP
ERA
K/IP
Avg Age
Trip
1,072
971
181
0.357
0.481
0.417
91
18
1,239
1.26
3.74
0.838
26.0
AG
1,129
1,005
133
0.361
0.467
0.393
86
64
1,111
1.23
3.72
0.856
30.3
Dave
1,065
1,031
123
0.354
0.475
0.407
83
89
1,120
1.27
3.88
0.848
28.1
Philsphan
1,109
1,098
119
0.360
0.474
0.431
96
36
1,125
1.27
4.02
0.757
31.6
KKB
1,063
1,056
86
0.357
0.472
0.370
90
80
1,104
1.28
3.78
0.856
28.4
BlueHen
1,164
1,023
154
0.362
0.459
0.368
69
111
1,017
1.33
3.96
0.926
28.9
StLCards
1,055
1,047
143
0.352
0.461
0.434
86
64
1,085
1.27
3.85
0.824
31.0
Tosh
1,160
1,152
147
0.346
0.470
0.416
82
42
1,026
1.28
3.86
0.743
29.2
Holt
1,065
976
130
0.355
0.476
0.362
67
74
893
1.24
3.72
0.879
28.5
FlyingPolack
1,047
937
132
0.365
0.478
0.355
104
10
1,383
1.32
4.06
0.890
28.6
Guru
1,194
1,078
139
0.368
0.465
0.353
100
77
1,010
1.30
3.97
0.705
29.3
jtserb
1,104
1,108
106
0.352
0.474
0.414
92
38
1,105
1.30
3.92
0.783
29.3
Building7
987
928
177
0.352
0.467
0.369
72
92
886
1.29
3.79
0.806
30.8
PeterN
1,126
1,078
131
0.345
0.459
0.361
84
54
960
1.27
3.89
0.740
29.1
Filthy
887
913
78
0.339
0.452
0.341
82
56
1,062
1.24
3.71
0.874
29.0
Bags
1,040
928
122
0.348
0.470
0.341
72
80
1,029
1.33
4.07
0.871
29.8
Owner
R
RBI
SB
OBP
SLG
R+RBI+SB / AB
W
SAV
K
WHIP
ERA
K/IP
Total
Trip
9
5
16
10
16
14
12
2
15
13
13
8
133
AG
13
7
10
13
7
10
9
9
12
16
15
10
131
DaveR
8
9
6
8
13
11
7
14
13
12
8
9
118
Philsphan
11
14
4
12
11
15
14
3
14
10
3
4
115
KKB
6
11
2
11
10
9
11
13
10
7
12
11
113
BlueHen
15
8
14
14
2
7
2
16
5
2
5
16
106
StLCards
5
10
12
5
4
16
10
8
9
9
10
7
105
Tosh
14
16
13
3
8
13
6
5
6
8
9
3
104
Holt
7
6
7
9
14
6
1
10
2
14
14
14
104
FlyingPolack
4
4
9
15
15
4
16
1
16
3
2
15
104
Guru
16
12
11
16
5
3
15
11
4
4
4
1
102
jtserb
10
15
3
6
12
12
13
4
11
5
6
5
102
Building7
2
2
15
7
6
8
3
15
1
6
11
6
82
PeterN
12
13
8
2
3
5
8
6
3
11
7
2
80
Filthy
1
1
1
1
1
2
5
7
8
15
16
13
71
Bags
3
3
5
4
9
1
4
12
7
1
1
12
62
11
Trip Leader
ID: 13961611 Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 16:07
Owner
VORP Total
Breakout
Improve
Collapse
Attrition
AG
555
14.6%
38.4%
28.1%
16.9%
Bags
416
16.2%
39.6%
28.9%
17.5%
BlueHen
535
15.0%
38.9%
30.4%
16.6%
Building7
469
13.1%
33.8%
35.2%
17.3%
Dave
512
16.8%
42.6%
27.0%
13.5%
Filthy
438
18.5%
43.9%
27.2%
16.8%
FlyingPolack
625
21.7%
49.7%
22.1%
18.1%
Guru
566
14.0%
39.8%
29.2%
15.1%
Holt
534
17.8%
41.0%
29.8%
14.8%
jtserb
589
16.3%
44.3%
23.2%
13.2%
KKB
521
14.0%
39.2%
27.3%
15.2%
PeterN
538
12.9%
37.6%
29.9%
14.5%
Philsphan
569
13.8%
39.4%
27.7%
17.7%
StLCards
478
16.0%
38.9%
30.1%
18.9%
Tosh
492
12.8%
39.5%
28.3%
11.7%
Trip
607
17.9%
43.9%
26.1%
12.0%
12
Dave R SuperDude
ID: 3010361110 Tue, Mar 27, 2007, 18:12
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I actually had no set strategy in mind at the onset, but rather to let the draft take it's course. I wanted to make sure I didn't get in a position of having to chase stats, such as saves or stolen bases. Also to pay particular attention to the % cats.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite pick was Hideki Matsui near the end of round 6. Last year he was an early 3rd round pick. I also like Hawpe ( 12th ) and if Nelson Cruz maintains a starting gig, he could be a steal in round 19. And if Otsuka and Capps wind up as closers they could be steals also.
Bartlett was a reach at 18.12 ( wanted Vizquel, taken one pick earlier ) and Donnelly since he was taken with the hope he may emerge amongst the rubble in Boston's pen.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)
This is always a tough question, I think everyone's teams have there own strong and weak points. If I had to single any out, I think I like Trip's ( he was continuously stealing my picks ) , Guru, and StLCards
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Nothing really, although after all these drafts ( baseball and hoops ), that I would learn that a particular player isn't going to slip through the cracks and slide to my next pick. I lost out on a couple players thinking I could wait.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I don't think I would do anything major differently. Someone said earlier, it's to late to second guess yourself, and I think I am somewhat happy with the way my team turned out.
13
Philsphan Donor
ID: 301442416 Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 12:11
Team
RUNS
RBI
S B
OBP
SLG
R+RBI+SB/AB
WINS
SAVES
K'S
ERA
WHIP
K/9
RANK
ATHLETICS GUY
1,215
1,105
149
.3618
.4604
.3208
89
75
1,217
3.648
1.224
7.92
1
HOLT
1,137
1,090
120
.3624
.4809
.3336
64
109
984
3.540
1.239
8.43
2
ROTOGURU.COM
1,250
1,141
145
.3692
.4608
.3293
104
77
1,093
3.774
1.269
6.46
3
PHILSPHAN
1,199
1,194
128
.3581
.4720
.3212
104
56
1,176
3.713
1.246
6.79
4
STLCARDS
1,115
1,112
147
.3506
.4689
.3329
102
70
1,244
3.867
1.283
7.27
5
KAFENATID.NET
1,061
1,074
79
.3598
.4640
.3153
95
77
1,202
3.554
1.242
7.90
6
TRIP
1,030
960
181
.3573
.4774
.3307
100
15
1,298
3.836
1.284
7.47
7
SANFORDORS
1,083
1,052
139
.3588
.4700
.3223
86
91
1,203
3.868
1.257
7.69
7
FLYING POLACK
1,098
1,002
136
.3686
.4761
.3263
105
31
1,411
4.095
1.322
7.94
7
BLUE HEN
1,169
1,035
152
.3608
.4569
.3162
67
132
1,095
3.794
1.328
8.45
10
BUILDING 7
1,033
1,000
196
.3556
.4619
.3293
70
117
906
3.577
1.266
7.32
11
JTSERB
1,139
1,166
89
.3563
.4741
.3288
92
56
1,126
3.881
1.287
7.09
12
TOSH
1,210
1,218
145
.3434
.4677
.3152
89
54
1,110
3.807
1.302
7.28
13
BAGS
1,188
1,082
150
.3533
.4672
.3160
76
102
1,021
3.940
1.317
7.36
14
PETER N.
1,198
1,122
148
.3527
.4537
.3101
89
63
1,019
3.790
1.274
6.62
15
FILTHY
984
1,006
87
.3469
.4509
.3078
86
40
1,194
3.806
1.270
7.99
16
Team
RUNS
RBI
S B
OBP
SLG
R+RBI+SB/AB
WINS
SAVES
K'S
ERA
WHIP
K/9
TOTAL
ATHLETICS GUY
15
10
12
13
4
7
7
9
13
13
16
12
131
HOLT
8
9
4
14
16
16
1
14
2
16
15
15
130
ROTOGURU.COM
16
13
9
16
5
12
14
10
5
11
10
1
122
PHILSPHAN
13
15
5
9
12
8
14
5
9
12
13
3
118
STLCARDS
7
11
10
3
10
15
13
8
14
5
7
5
108
KAFENATID.NET
4
7
1
11
7
4
11
10
11
15
14
11
106
TRIP
2
1
15
8
15
14
12
1
15
6
6
9
104
SANFORDORS
5
6
7
10
11
9
6
12
12
4
12
10
104
FLYING POLACK
6
3
6
15
14
10
16
2
16
1
2
13
104
BLUE HEN
10
5
14
12
3
6
2
16
6
9
1
16
100
BUILDING 7
3
2
16
6
6
13
3
15
1
14
11
7
97
JTSERB
9
14
3
7
13
11
10
5
8
3
5
4
92
TOSH
14
16
8
1
9
3
8
4
7
7
4
6
87
BAGS
11
8
13
5
8
5
4
13
4
2
3
8
84
PETER N.
12
12
11
4
2
2
9
7
3
10
8
2
82
FILTHY
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
3
10
8
9
14
60
14
Trip Leader
ID: 13961611 Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 14:32
RD 21 Standings
Owner
R
RBI
SB
OBP
SLG
(R+RBI+SB) /PA
W
SAV
K
WHIP
ERA
K/IP
Total
Trip
14
10
16
10
15
12
6
2
5
13
15
15
133
AG
10
8
10
13
9
11
9
8
14
16
13
6
127
Dave
3
6
5
9
16
13
13
15
15
11
7
7
120
Philsphan
11
14
9
12
12
15
12
4
11
10
4
3
117
Tosh
15
15
14
2
5
10
10
5
10
7
9
14
116
StLCards
7
13
13
6
6
16
7
9
7
8
8
8
108
KKB
4
7
2
11
7
8
11
13
12
12
14
5
106
FlyingPolack
6
5
12
14
14
3
16
1
16
3
2
12
104
Guru
12
12
8
15
13
2
15
11
4
4
5
2
103
BlueHen
8
4
11
16
3
6
3
16
13
2
3
13
98
Holt
13
11
4
7
11
1
1
10
1
14
12
11
96
jtserb
16
16
3
5
8
14
4
3
2
6
10
9
96
PeterN
9
9
7
3
2
7
14
7
6
9
6
1
80
Filthy
1
3
1
1
1
9
8
6
8
15
16
10
79
Building7
5
2
15
8
4
4
2
14
3
5
11
4
77
Bags
2
1
6
4
10
5
5
12
9
1
1
16
72
15
Tosh Leader
ID: 057721710 Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 15:09
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
With picks 1-5, I wanted 4 quality reliable hitters, and one closer. No injury risks and no youngsters with upside. With picks 6-12, I wanted 4 more hitters, 2 SP with good K numbers, and perhaps another closer. In rounds 13-19, I was going to focus on making sure all the hitting categories were covered, and then focus on finding pitchers with the classic “LIMA numbers”. Beginning in round 20, look for kids, and finally best available player.
I changed my plan in round 3 when I took Oswalt, but felt he had slipped far enough. Round 4 really threw me for a loop when Guru took Carlos Guillen. I didn’t want to reach for a different MI or CL (only three others went before my next pick), so I went with another big stick at 1B, even though I already had a 1B.
I probably reached for three of my SP (Harang (rnd 8), Snell (r12), & Shields(r20)), but they all met criteria I’m looking for in starting pitchers, and all 3 have breakout potential.
After drafting Crawford, I kind of forgot about SB for the next 15+ rounds. I should have paid better attention, and probably added one more speed guy.
Guru was particularly harsh on me, taking my number one queue guy 4 times (Jeter, Guillen, C. Cordero, and Youkilis).
Except for Adam Miller, I didn’t take any kids in the very late rounds.
And finally, 14 of my 15 hitters are from the AL, and my top 4 pitchers (and 6 of 10 overall) are NL. That was unintentional.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorites: Mark Teixeria @ 2.06 – He looks more like 2005 than 2006 so far Ian Snell @12.06 – Looking good this Spring Ivan Rodriguez @ 14.06 – Like fine wine. He’s aging well. Garrett Anderson @ 22.06 – A hot Spring
Leasts: Adrain Beltre @ 10.06 – I needed a 3B. And I’m a Mariners fan! Freddy Sanchez @ 11.11 – I placed too much importance on his 3-position eligibility Kevin Gregg @ 23.11 – Add me to the list of managers that drafted a FLA bullpen guy hoping for the best.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
It’s a pretty close sqeeze at the top using my projections. But they say that Dave R, Trip, StLCards, Guru, and me all look good.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That Guru had a copy of my draft sheet. He kept taking my guys.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would have taken Papelbon (went at 8.07) at 8.06 instead of Harang. I wish the Red Sox weren’t such dang flip-floppers.
Thanks Guru for the invite!
16
Guru
ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 29, 2007, 17:41
I meant to post this earlier in the week, but suddenly my “spare time” got rotohogged. In fact, I didn’t even read the other recaps until a few minutes ago.
My general plan was to focus on hitting early, grab a couple of stable closers, and defer on starting pitching until round 9-10, unless someone was just screaming to be bought. Get middle infielders and catchers when it’s not a big reach. This year I also tried to make sure my early picks were as solid as possible. Last year I got burned by Jason Bay in round one, hoping that he’d have his breakout, 5-tool year. I could have had David Ortiz instead.
In general, I was satisfied with my early rounds of Hafner-Jeter-Wagner-Guillen-Dye-C.Cordero. Hafner did present some challenges along the way by clogging the Utility slot, but if he stays healthy, he may be worth it. Getting Jeter and Guillen to fill two MI slots early felt good, as I didn’t feel that I was stretching for either.
Felipe Lopez (round 7) was my first screwy pick, as I already had two shortstops and Hafner was plugging the Util hole. I had pretty much dismissed Lopez until after the 6-7 turn, when I realized that Lopez would probably be starting at 2B, and could gain eligibility there very early. I think that if you’re going to be in the hunt for SB points, you need to get meaning steals from your MI slots; otherwise, you often sacrifice too much power by getting some of the big outfield stealers. Rickie Weeks might have been a safer route to take, but I ended up getting Lopez envy, and when Trip suggested the possibility of trading up, I pursued it. As it turns out, Trip didn’t deal, but I still got the trade-up done within a few picks. It didn’t end up costing me, because I got my round 8 target of Burrell anyway.
Once Lopez was in the fold, I decided I should continue to try to find guys who could offer some SBs, just to get me in the middle of the pack. I would have needed another big stealer to compete for the top rankings in steals, and figured that wouldn’t be likely. Russ Martin and Byrnes should help out a little in that regard. By getting into the middle of the SB category, at least guys like Jeter and Guillen should provide full value for me.
I waited until round 9 for my first starter, Verlander. I’d obviously rather have someone more reliable as my #1 starter, but by round 9, I thought the starting ranks were already pretty depleted of guys with #1 potential. My starting staff of Verlander, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe, and a few Cleveland pitchers has potential, but could also be a huge weakness. None of the starters have particularly high K/IP ratios. Hopefully, my relievers can make up some of that slack.
I had my starting hitters all done by round 17, and hope that translates into superior hitting stats. If not, I’m in trouble.
I do monitor consolidated stats using 4 different projections, and while I don’t use these as a draft decision tool, I do use it as a general guide to see where my relative strengths and weaknesses might lie. Teams (other than mine) that appear to be strongest over a variety of projections include Trip, Dave R, Athletics Guy, and Holt. KKB ranks first using RotoWire (no surprise there), but middle-of-the-pack with other projections. Peter N. ranks first using Sportsline projections, but not nearly as well with the others.
Overall, I’m satisfied, and think I made reasonable choices. So far, I don’t hate any pick.
Kudos to everyone for a very smooth running draft. Next year, we can probably start a few days later. Special thanks to blue hen for his volunteer assistance in copying over rationales on multiple occasions, and to anyone else who might have also assisted in that process along the way.
17
filthy
ID: 370396 Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 15:55
My strategy for the draft was to pick based on upside. New stars are made every season and I wanted to give myself a good chance of finding some of them. There are also always waiver surprises that pop up in the early part of the season, and when some of my upside flops I should be in good position to be able to make room for a key free agent. I also didn't want to worry too much about where I picked guys as long as I got the guys I wanted which worked out pretty well for me. I really didn't want to settle on guys I didn't like, I was more comfortable with reaching on a guy to avoid having him snagged up before my next picks.
How my team sets up:
CI- Morneau, AMarte, Mora, Hatteberg Justin Morneau should continue his rise to stardom and hopefully be the anchor of my offense. AMarte and Mora are in nice lineups with a lot of run scoring potential. Hatteberg makes for a nice depth guy.
MI- Polanco, Hill, Hardy, Valentin Aaron Hill didn't stop hitting once he became accustomed to second base and he is in a perfect lineup to keep on improving this year. Polanco had a down year for the most part but showed some of his 05 form at the end of the season, Hardy has shown flashes of potential but was slowed by injuries last year, and Valentin is mostly there for depth.
OF- AJones, Rios, Patterson, Nixon I really like my outfield, a lot of talent should things go my way. Jones in a contract year should be a monster, Rios back healthy should be a monster, Patterson should be the spark for a very underrated Orioles lineup, and Nixon could be hitting in the 2hole of a lethal Indians attack. Valentin as my only backup is risky but my lineup is bound to change many times in the early going.
C- RHernandez In case noone has noticed, the Orioles are my dark horse team this year, Nick Markakis is blowing up and taking the Orioles offense with him.
Util- Sweeney This one kinda handcuffed me, I should've went with a true utility player, but I couldn't resist the temptation that Sweeney might make a comeback this year. He's pretty much playing for his baseball life this year and he still has talent if he can stay on the field.
Overall I think my offense should be alright. A lot of room for growth from a lot of these players which probably explains the projections not liking me. But I don't like projections either so it looks like we're even!
Starting pitching: Halladay, Felix, JerWeaver, Lowry, AReyes. I love this staff. It'll take more than missing some starts and some injury trouble over the last few years to scare me away from Halladay. The relatively low K's don't even scare me, the less he focuses on K's the healthier and better he seems to get which is fine by me. Felix is about ready to jump into Santana, Halladay company and contend for a Cy Young this season. Unrealistic expectations caused a stepback last year but he still has the same nasty stuff and a whole year of experience. Jered Weaver and Anthony Reyes both have some nasty stuff and should take another step forward this year. Noah Lowry is a darkhorse that I think will benefit from less pressure.
Relief pitching: Gagne, Dempster, DMarte, Eyre, Turnbow, FCabrera Gagne's already on the DL, and Dempster is probably a blown save away from middle relief so my closer situation is pretty grim. That's what happens when you avoid the closer run though, I still like their chances to pick me up some saves. Really wish I would have been able to pick up Otsuka or Howry though, those are probably my 2 biggest regrets of the draft. I managed to pick up some big strikeout and minor job stealing potential with my middle relief at least.
Overall I think my pitching is in good shape with the exception of saves being rather risky.
My favorite teams at a glance would be Peter N, holt & StLCards. Nice balanced teams will be huge with the shallow rosters.
I was somewhat surprised with how lucky I got with a mostly queue picked draft. I was worried about not being able to react to any runs but I think having queues allowed me to not second guess myself. Hopefully my difference in taste of players doesn't mean I'm overmatched.
The only thing I would do differently if I could would be to handcuff the backups to my risky closers before anyone else got to them.
Good luck all, draft was fun, season should be funner. Thanks to all who made queue picks and kept the rationales up to date.
18
Athletics Guy
ID: 372132712 Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 00:45
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
By selecting Johan Santana in the 1st round, I had to focus on picking some of the best hitters in the next few rounds. With the best pitcher in the game as my ace, I felt I could wait a bit longer than usual in building the rest of my starting rotation. I managed to get 3 .950+ OPS players in Delgado, Thome and Atkins which was great. I also got Hanley Ramirez too. While he's not the high OBP/SLG player that I'd like to have with a 3rd round pick, he gives me a lot of speed. Normally, I'd take a 5-tool player like Abreu in the 1st round so I can avoid guys like Hanley. Unfortunately, I didn't have that luxury this season. Still, I think I got pretty good value there.
The part of the draft that had me worried the most was the closer run. I concentrated on my hitters so much that I sort of let the closer run pass me by. I really had no choice but to take back-to-back closers in the 6th and 7th rounds to ensure that my team would be competitive in saves. I had to do a bit of reaching here but I think I did well enough to stay in the middle of the pack with Gordon and Fuentes.
I think I did well with my pitching by drafting Capuano, Patterson, Maine and Hudson in the middle rounds. Adding Pedro in the 20th was a nice bonus too. With the exception of Hudson, they all have great strikeout rates. Normally, I put together a team with hitting as my biggest strength. However, if this team is going to win, it will be through its great pitching (just like my A's!).
The only complaint I have about my team is the outfield. Ibanez, Wilkerson, Duffy, Winn and Church are all question marks. Wilkerson needs to come up huge for me or I'm in big trouble. I wish I did a better job here, but I can't expect my team to be strong in every position (especially with such a tough group of managers). Hopefully, a FA/Waiver pickup can help me.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorite Picks: Posada (10.14): It's great to get a catcher of this quality in the 10th round. He's one of my all-time favorite players to have on a fantasy team so I love this pick. Patterson (12.14): Patterson's capable of being a top 10 starting pitcher (with some actual run support). He has pitched pretty well in ST, looking healthy so far. Hudson (15.03): 2007 Comeback Player of the Year. You saw it here first.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
StLCards- He looks strong in all areas. I love the A-Rod, Schmidt and Kent picks, espcially since I was going to take them myself. Guru-Other than K's, this team doesn't really have any weaknesses that stand out. Holt-His team was already looking good to me even before Papelbon became the closer again.
Oh yeah, and the worst is bh. Just like Pearl Jam, his team is way overrated.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I'm surprised by how many times StLCards grabbed the top player on my list right before I was going to pick. It was pretty ridiculous really.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Looking at how the first 2 rounds played out, I wish I would have taken the #9 pick. Getting Ortiz and Tejada would have been a dream come true.
19
holt
ID: 590581711 Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 05:47
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
- no punting of any categories. middle of pack in saves or steals is ok, but no punting.
- maintain high obp/slug with all hitters. take steals along with good %'s whenever possible. maintain low era/whip and decent K/9 with all my pitchers. I pretty much cross any player who can't achieve .350/.450 or sub 4.00/1.30 off my list, and any pitcher with mediocre K/9 is crossed off, regardless of his other numbers.
- look for players with upside. guys who have a prayer of performing like a 10th rd pick or better. I'd rather take a rookie with upside in the 18th and watch him fail than draft a mediocre veteran who is sure to perform like an 18th rounder.
- avoid being forced to reach for scarce positions
I think I was able to execute this for the most part. I pick up steals with Wright, Sizemore, C.Lee, Teahen, M.Giles, Crosby, and Tull. not enough get me a lot of points but I won't be at the bottom either. Kaz Matsui doesn't fit my high % profile but I thought I'd like the option of grabbing some extra steals if necessary.
All of my pitchers fit my low % good K profile, but my requirements there caused me to be a little short-handed. I was already a little short on SP's before it was announced that papelbon would be the closer. I dropped Madson for Colon. hope that helps, and there is always the FA pile.
I think I did avoid reaching on any of my picks. I went after 2nd tier closers so I wouldn't have to chase low tier closers (who are almost always a reach imo). I resisted reaching for MI's, which caused me to not draft one until the 10th round. my MI's aren't the greatest but I don't really think they are much different than guys that were going in the 7th/8th rd. getting a great MI is nice but it's just not in the cards for most teams in the draft. drafting a mediocre hitter who happens to be an MI in the 7th round isn't going to make up for missing out on Jeter. I'd rather just hunt for scraps in the 15th round.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I love my top 3: Wright, Sizemore, and Lee. Big power numbers and all 3 of em can steal some bases. Papelbon in the 8th was quite a gift. I feel pretty proud about getting Teahen in the 9th, even though he is a Royal. Ervin Santana at 13.10, what a relief that was.
do-overs? I'm not sure if Saito in the 5th will turn out well for me. if I had known that BH was gonna swipe Broxton from me I may have gone a different route (chris ray maybe).
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
every team seems to have a hole in it (some are small and fixable, some are huge and gaping). I see a lot of teams that have very strong aspects to them (too many to point them all out). and I'll spare pointing out all the huge gaping holes. you guys are probably already aware of them, and if you're not, well that's ok with me. : )
sanfordors has a team I think I could work with. he didn't leave himself any mountains to climb.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
hmmm. nothing really jumps to mind. MI's and set-up men were pushed at a little harder than I liked, but I wouldn't say that I was surprised.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
well, I'd like to have drafted another decent SP or two but I honestly don't know what rd's I could have squeezed them into. I would have also spread false rumors across the internet and ESPN in particular about Broxton having serious arm problems in hopes that BH would move him down his cheat sheet just a couple rd's.
Love to draft, but the work has just begun. Now the grind begins. Can't wait! AS ALWAYS, THANKS TO GURU!
20
holt
ID: 590581711 Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 05:57
I just realized, sanfordors is just a log-in name at Kafenatid. The team I was referring to under question 3 was Dave R's team.
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