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Subject: Rotohog Midweek 6/18-6/21
Posted by: StLCards
- Dude [31010716] Mon, Jun 18, 2007, 10:02
Lots of Gurupies moving up the standings slowly but surely. Interleague play still in effect this week. Good luck! |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 54 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 15:48
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I guess I could be the only one without Haren going today, but I like to outhink myself. I just figured with it being a day game, interleague series, Reds starting to heat up, that there were enough unknown variables to scare me off. Very similar to why I didn't start Santana yesterday, yeah, that workded out well. I have Haren going in TSN so I am hoping he does well all the same.
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| 55 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 15:53
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I had Santana yesterday, but am skipping Haren today.
Did anyone else notice anything funny at the freezes for Peavy and Santana yesterday? I don't know if my internet connection was just slower than usual, but I thought I sold both within a second of the freeze and lost $5+ on each. Usually I don't lose more than $1 from the peak. Same computer and everything. And it didn't seem noticeably slower when I did it.
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| 56 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:18
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I always like reading the cbs blogs of the game, gives you a little better perspective of the game than just watching the scoreboard.
"Haren continues to have control problems but he's got to be happy that he's pitching like this against the Reds. They swing at everything. Edwin Encarnacion gets the Reds first hit of the game and Haren walks Hamilton but Alex Gonzalez hits into a double play. A lot of Haren's pitches end up in the dirt but the Reds keep swinging at them."
Of course what that doesn't say is that is Haren's forte to begin with. The ball looks hittable and then the bottom falls out of it.
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| 57 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:33
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Same thing for me on the selling Alex.
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| 58 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:37
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Haren pick struggling early. C'mon Danny!
I'm hoping to continue the pattern of people whining about pitchers only to have them turn it around and win :).
Incidentally, Jenks and Gregg were both brought in w/ 6 outs to get. It's a little less surprising to see Gregg there but scary for owners regardless.
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| 59 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:46
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No Haren, hoping for disaster! I do have Bonderman, hoping for magic!
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| 60 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:48
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Any theories on what happened to Stl and me? Did this happen w/other players yesterday?
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| 61 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:54
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I'm watching that CWS/Fla game. Jenks hasn't been good and Gregg started off walking two before retiring the last two hitters. Fla got another run off Jenks in the 9th so at least Gregg has a 2-run lead now.
I've been staying away from SPs lately, but the haren matchup had me salivating. Hope he can salvage it and the As get some runs.
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| 62 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 16:58
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Alex, I didn't really think much of it, just figured that there was a huge Peavy sell off and I was just late in the queue. Typically I don't sell Peavy so I really don't know how much I normally would lose on him. My thought was more people sold him since he will be facing Boston next, but who knows.
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| 63 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 17:02
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good thing gregg got an insureance run as Konerko just drilled a full count 2 out fast ball into the seats.
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| 64 | Firemansmith
ID: 125432010
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 17:47
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I sold Peavy 1 second after freeze and then was unable to get back to my roster due to rotohog page not loading. Figured it was due to huge sell off at 3:55 pm.
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| 65 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 17:50
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I skipped Haren today as well, but simply because I couldn't be around to sell him. I also skipped Fileder and Cordero for the sme reason.
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| 66 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:00
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Yes! A's take the lead in the 7th to put Haren in line for a win if the A's can hold on.
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| 67 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:20
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props to Pops !! I give him all the credit to him for his whining idea (post #58). that strategy has worked quite well lately I've noticed.
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| 68 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:34
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Thank you, thank you....I'll be here all week.
Seriously though, I had actually picked up Alan Embree and for whatever reason I didn't start him!
While i'm thrilled at getting a cheap 26pt turnaround from loss to win for Haren, Embree leaves me with a bad taste in my mouth.
Tough to swallow when I didn't pick up any saves yesterday, and I passed up Cordero and Gregg today also.
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| 69 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:40
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I also passed up Gregg (went with Paps & Haren in SP spots) and also missed out on Cordero. I didn't consider double dipping with Embree, since that strategy has worked once all year for me I think.
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| 70 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Wed, Jun 20, 2007, 18:45
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Re 59:
No Sheffield and no Polanco in the Tigers starting lineup.
Then again no Guillen, Mags, Granderson, or Pudge in the Nats lineup :).
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| 71 | TacoJohn
ID: 422551921
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 01:37
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What's the record for consecutive days without a save? I'm up to 3. And I only had 1 save on Sunday.
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| 72 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 01:53
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I had all 6 pitchers go today but only 2 saves. And while I'm grateful for the save, Gregg's wasn't all that good for 1.2 innings.
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| 73 | Building 7
Sustainer
ID: 171572711
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 09:32
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I've had my Rotohog team on automatic pilot for the last month. I have all my batters and 6 relievers, but have not used any starting pitchers. I received an email yesterday that I have won a T-shirt for the weekly prize. That was difficult. I plan on making a run at the monthly prize later, but have no clue on how I could have won a weekly prize.
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| 74 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 10:12
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2 teams to keep an eye on that have crept into the top 100 globally.
95th - hellotony(hellotony) (-14/-141)
82nd - tacowallace(jkloster) (-30/-108)
wonder if there are a few more like them lurking just out of the leaderboard.
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| 75 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 10:16
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74 - Yeah, tacowallace "debuted" in the adjusted top 10. On the other hand, anyone who has much more than his -30/-108 to make up is going to have a hard time doing so.
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| 76 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 10:47
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75 - I agree. they most likely got a late start playing, and have been playing catchup with their usage ever since.
haven't seen the adjusted standings posted in a while. I bet it's really tightening up though.
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| 77 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:10
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I've been leaving it to Bandos to post it, but as of this morning, I'm #3 (but now 240 points behind IMDBCooper), Species, MrBig, and Guru are #5, #6, and #7, and Bandos is #9. I think that's it for Gurupies in the top 10, but StlCards is #12 and Ender is #20. That's using 7/g and 4.75/ip for the adjustments. Top 20 are all within 600 points of the lead.
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| 78 | Ender
ID: 335132010
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:22
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It's a roller coaster ride. I have had a good June, but there's no magic formula for efficiency. That's the hard part. You can pick hot hitters, but there's no consistent way to tell which relievers are going to pitch in a non-save situation (which is really no more efficient than a SP) let alone which ones will get a save. That's the aggravating thing for me. I won't even mention what a crap shoot SP can be, even the studs put up duds from time to time.
All that being said, I will say that it seems much more feasible to make up ground than I thought it would be. I thought the early leaders would be tough to catch, but there is plenty of movement.
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| 79 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:25
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I've been getting my rear handed too me lately. That followed on the heels of a really nice run, so hopefully I can put another good run together soon!
Feels like I can't buy a save lately. I keep picking all the wrong RP. I haven't really gotten bombed too much, more a case of picking guys that aren't getting into games because their team wins 12-1 or loses 8-1!
Its a lot easier to make up 140 IP then it is to make up 30 GP. However, making up those IP might lead to some poor choices and missed save opps.
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| 80 | Ender
ID: 335132010
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:54
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That's so true. The guys mentioned in post 74 could be dangerous because of the IP available, but the monthly prize guys can attest to the decisions you are forced to make trying to burn IP.
ukula, are you out there? Good luck with the June monthly prize.
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| 81 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 11:58
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I recognize one of the names from tsn message boards and he is likely to be a force. Probably a few more people on the way up as well.
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| 82 | Ender
ID: 335132010
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 12:54
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hellotony has posted on these boards befoer as well.
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| 83 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 13:22
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Re: 71, 72, 78, 79
I also haven't had many saves lately, and I think that is probably true for most teams. the underdogs have been winning more than usual, and when the favorites have been winning, it's often by a big margin. thus not many save chances, unless you have been picking "against the grain".
I disagree slightly with Ender on RP's pitching in non-save situations. I think the elite closers score a little more than 4.75 per IP when they go 1 inning in a blowout game. I certainly wouldn't want to see todd jones or joe borowski pitch in those situations if I owned them. and given the risk/reward ratio, I suppose I would prefer not to see even the elite closers I owned come in. but I've seen enough of those (1 IP, 0 hits, 0 BB's, 2 SO's) innings for 11.20 points, that I'd guess the top 5 or 6 closers average 6 - 7 points in those situations. of course one bad outing could cancel out 4 or 5 of those in one shot. I have no numbers to back any of this up, so I'm just speculating cause I had some time to kill. so who wants to go back, pick the top 6 or so closers, and see what they average in non-save situations ? me neither...lol. would be interesting to know, but not worth the time to find out.
though I think I can somewhat answer your other point Ender about not knowing when closers will pitch in non-save situation. that will happen way more often when a closer hasn't pitched for 3 or more days in a row. it's very rare for a closer to come in for a non-save situation when he has pitched in the previous 2 days, except for the times he is already warming up for a save and his team tacks on more runs in the last inning to take him out of the save chance. and if a closer hasn't pitched for 4 or 5 days, there is a very good chance he will pitch, regardless of the score. so if you want to avoid RP's pitching in non-save situations, pick ones that have pitched in the previous 2 days, or 3 days at most. this is all probably not news to anyone, but like I said, had some time to kill.
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| 84 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 13:40
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I'm not sure what this really means, but, I've gotten 82 saves this year (83.3 innings) with an average of 22.17 points per inning
In RP appearances without a save: 74 appearances (76.7 innings) 2.19 points per inning.
Not sure how to eliminate blown saves from the equation...or if I SHOULD eliminate them
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| 85 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 13:47
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yeah, it's too hard to figure out. especially since you might need to go back to old boxscores to get an accurate count. though 2.19 points per inning in non-save situations certainly doesn't back up my theory. of course that is with all RP's used, and not just the elite ones. but it's enough to make me think I am likely wrong with the 6 - 7 points I was estimating. so I'll revise that to - "I'm happy when my RP comes in a non-save situation and gets me 11.20 points".
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| 86 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:12
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I can break it out by pitcher, but it would be a pretty small sample size. I'll look at a couple:
Papelbon: 6 non-saves, 1.35 per inning (includes a -15.16 outing)
KRod: 5 non-save outings, 6 innings, 1.39 per inning (includes a -9.15 outing)
Wagner: 4 non-saves, 4.3 innings, 4.23 per inning
Its just tough to measure because those bad outings really skew everything.
Interesting that I've used Francisco Cordero 12 times and he's gotten a save all 12. Never even appeared in a game without getting me a save.
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| 87 | donk44
ID: 563322323
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:24
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J - wow, that is low. guess it's true that most closers don't pitch as well when they can't get a save (and more $$$$ in their next contract). that could definately be a factor, and one which I didn't consider.
looks like my speculation/estimates were quite faulty, and those numbers are much lower than I figured. if they hold true, then the standard 4.75 points per inning for a SP would far outgain them in those non-save situations. that surprises me. oh well, glad it was just a theory and I'm not losing points over it.
thanks for your input J
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| 88 | TacoJohn
ID: 422551921
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:29
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When you say non-saves do you mean coming in in non-save situations or any appearance where they don't get a save? I think it's the former but if it's the latter it explains why the numbers are so low.
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| 89 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 14:33
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non-save = any outing where they don't get a save (while on my team). So blown saves are included in the numbers in post 86
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| 90 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 15:00
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The Yankee 1-4 average > 1,000 OPS vs Lopez. But Lopez has obviously been a substantially superior pitcher this year relative to the rest of his career.
The guy I might regret passing up is Abreu, we'll see.
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| 91 | Alex
ID: 45434314
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:08
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What starting pitchers do people have today? I'm going with Bedard (so far, so good) and Felix (risky, but I'm an optimist). Anybody else like either of them?
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| 92 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:16
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I have Bedard and my fingers crossed. Don't jinx him!
GO RICE!
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| 93 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:36
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6IP, 9Ks, and only 79 pitches and they take Bedard out. Don't think I would have done that.
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| 94 | mrbig
ID: 74421811
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:41
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I assume they pinch-hit for him with runners on base? Only explanation I can think of. Even then, with their terrible bullpen, it would be a bad decision!
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| 95 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 17:55
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Hopefully the ability to choose closers runs in spurts and I'm right on the verge of picking correctly. Not many games today and already I'm wrong by not taking Gagne. Hopefully I'll get a couple of others right.
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| 96 | Pops
ID: 57519613
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 18:17
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Oh, great.
Ray's in w/ nothing to gain.
This should be a great addition to a day with Dempster and Rivera already, sheesh.
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| 97 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 18:21
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I personally wasn't referring to blown saves and did sell RP's short when they do come in without giving up a hit. I wasn't really comapring averages though I was simply saying that an IP by a reliever isn't much different than an IP thrown by a starter. It's not like closers come in and automatically don't give up a hit or a BB and pick up a K or 2. If you isolate any given inning with a game, I'm just saying a closer really isn't any more likely to be lights out than a SP. Over the long term the RP average is probably better when you discount the blown saves (if you even should).
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| 98 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 18:41
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I just assumed that Ray had gotten the save when I saw a 6-3 win, but nooooo, Balt had to go and score a run in the 9th to make it a non-save situation. I had both Hoffman and Ray and wound up with negative points and negative $12 since I didn't sell them on time. Nice.
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| 99 | Syd
ID: 15537216
Thu, Jun 21, 2007, 23:19
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Not rotohog, but TSN. Does anyone else find it creepy how Josh Hancock had a glitch in the price update. Dropped to 210k which is impossible, on top of the price movers board too. Weird.
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| 100 | Pops
ID: 5923858
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 00:14
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King Fat has gotten me negatives everytime I've used him this year.
I'm 0/6 b/n him and Halladay. wtf?
King Fat is my new Fu-Rod.
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| 101 | Chuck
ID: 152261223
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 00:35
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Not a huge night point-wise (No F- Her), but 75 points is 75 points.
Special thanks to Derrek Lee, Ichiro, Putz, and especially Saito for not bombing in a non-save situation.
No thanks to the 4 Yankees who have been in my line-up the last 3 days (2-5 in the batting order). A special no-thanks to Abreu's ~-12 points over the last 2 games.
I really want 4 OF's and 2 1B's for tomorrow. Not sure who the odd man out is going to be, but leaning toward it being Ichiro...
I have 3 starters I'm looking at for Saturday & Sunday, and then to 6 closers for a good chunk of time as I go into vacation mode. Can't do worse than what I've been doing recently...
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| 102 | Peter N.
ID: 4152471
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 01:10
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The Felix/Putz combo was nice. Managed to score 142 points with only two hitters. I'll take it.
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| 103 | Ender
ID: 1138421
Fri, Jun 22, 2007, 07:50
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King Felix has been the bane of my existence in roto since he came back. I didn't start him in roto and didn't even consider him for RH. That didn't stop me from using Putz though :)
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