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Subject: What is a "good matchup"?
Posted by: Bond, James Bond
- [2650913] Sat, Jul 14, 2007, 10:34
Just getting back from overseas work, I have accumulated quite a few pitcher trades. My question is: How does one determine what a good matchup is? Going with a stud vs. Boston or the Yanks probably isn't a good idea but neither is going with a 5th day starter-type even against the Royals and D-Rays of the world.
What do you look for in order to obtain the best matchup of the day? Any help I can get is certainly appreciated. |
| 1 | smallwhirled
ID: 4166913
Sat, Jul 14, 2007, 11:13
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TSN purposes I assume?
One of the biggest keys to using PTs successfully is you have to figure out the right time to launch a rotation. There are times when the studs align and there are days with no great option.
Take in point Monday and Tuesday this week. Sure, Peavy got moved back, which does help a little on Tuesday as far as picks are concerned, but imagine if that option wasn't available??
It's best to use them at a time where the studs have spaced out a little bit so there are good options to pick from all 5 or 6 days so you can bridge one pitcher slot all the way back to the end (hypothetically).
Now what exactly is a good matchup?
First, only consider pitchers in the top teir. There's probably about 15 to 20 of them that are strong on paper matchups vs literally any National League team and about 2/3rds of the American League teams.
I'd probably put an X on Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, New York, and still @Coors right from the get go.
You want to use your trades only on high-K or high IP pitchers. Better put....studs. You can realistically only get 60 or 70 points per pitcher trade in the long term, but you want to pick guys who can get you 150 at any time.
Santana, Sabathia, Verlander, Bonderman, Beckett, Matsusaka, Bedard, Halladay, Haren, Felix, Smoltz, Hamels, Maine, Oswalt, Zambrano, Harang, C Young, Peavy, RJ, and Lincecum
You could argue a couple more (and I probably forgot a couple), but those guys are your best high ceiling pitchers. Tough matchups and even middle of the road matchups should be ignored in a rotation slot.
I wouldn't even use guys not on that list even against really crappy opponents. In the 2nd half it's best to use your RV on the good pitchers.
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| 2 | Bond, James Bond
ID: 2650913
Sun, Jul 15, 2007, 16:08
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Thanks smallwhirled for your thoughts! On paper, I suppose, it's not that hard to choose someone who is supposed to dominate but in reality, as you have alluded to, it's a lot different.
I'm surprised however that you believe a 60-70 point return is realistic. Isn't that kind of low? I know not every pitcher you choose is going to throw a stud outing but certainly a 100 point outing wouldn't be realistic would it?
Otherwise, I appreciate the list of pitchers that you claim as today's studs. Well most of them anyway----but Felix and Linecum??? I don't understand those two being on that list.
Nevertheless, I'm thankful for your insights. With 24 PT's left, I suppose I can do a little damage to the other guys in my league. Wish me luck.
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| 3 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Sun, Jul 15, 2007, 16:44
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A couple years ago we had a message board team that had built up a bunch of trades and we tracked it.
Picking a pitcher every day based on opinions on the message board, and in the end it averaged about 60pts per trade.
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| 4 | smallwhirled
ID: 14023168
Mon, Jul 16, 2007, 14:50
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Ahhh.
Yeah it's the 60-70 range for PTs in a rotation. That's the most you can expect. I guess, hypothetically, pitchers already on your team don't count. So assuming you are holding top flight pitchers in your other 4 slots....that's 4 less to choose from.
Check this out for starters
The game is the same, but the only difference is the 5 day pitcher repricing. That does hurt the true guru-rotation and when you do it because you should consider pitchers that will definitely lose money on the day they pitch....depending what buys/sells are already under a pitcher's name for the previous 4 days. When it was daily price changes (pre 2002), you'd always be selecting a pitcher that would automatically gain value buying on the day he pitches.
Other than that it's the same thing.
BTW, I just randomly picked pitchers in that other post. High ceiling pitchers are something I lean towards.
You can always try and back your picks with stats and tweak your own criteria for picking pitchers, but I play on primarily feel.
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| 6 | hellotony
Sustainer
ID: 110501511
Mon, Jul 16, 2007, 15:57
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"Nevertheless, I'm thankful for your insights. With 24 PT's left, I suppose I can do a little damage to the other guys in my league. Wish me luck."
Because the rotation advice that smallwhirled gives is so solid, hence the problem you have when trying to close a large gap with your saved trades.
The person ahead will likely have four studs slotted and a rotation of his own in the fifth. Using all those saved trades will often just be putting a "checker on a checker" vs your opponent (to use a Mike Francessa-ism), and many of your saved trades will be forced into lesser match-ups.
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| 7 | smallwhirled
ID: 14023168
Mon, Jul 16, 2007, 16:30
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Those are good points. It's pretty tough to cut into a lead against an opponent who is using the same pitchers.
My advise is to start getting aggressive immediately, maybe lock in one or two cheaper slots since your RV is probably low by gaining that many PTs, and start using them in mini-rotations.
The hold 40 PTs and unleash a month and a half to two month long one slot per day guru-rotation has been done many times....60-70 points per trade work, and I've never seen a team like that actually attain a really high finish.
But in a divisional race, or just to mess around, it can be fun.
Twarpy, if you see this, dibs on your teams.
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| 8 | Twarpy
ID: 53443916
Tue, Jul 17, 2007, 12:13
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Theyre all yours buddy, had a real hectic summer send me a msg on AIM.
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