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0 Subject: 2007 Playoffs: Day 1

Posted by: Bandos
- Sustainer [279492419] Wed, Oct 03, 2007, 15:02

This is from BP FREE pages so I think its ok to post it here. To see it prettier: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/postseasonodds.php

If not, please delete Guru.

I find the BOS v. LAA prediction to be strange. I am unsure of the exact methodology but it seems that Lackey's 3.01 ERA for the season is counting a lot more that his 8+ ERA in Fenway (a personal house of horrors for him). Nonetheless, I like being the underdog!

Interesting how much of a longshot the STLCards were last year. Goes to show that the playoffs are what Billy Beane claimed - a crapshoot.

Let the games(and the crapshoot) begin!
---------- October 3 --------------------
Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday
BOS 46.1139 24.9932 13.3544
CLE 55.8081 24.7295 14.1073
LAA 53.8861 29.3102 16.4117
NYY 44.1919 20.9671 10.9791
ARI 37.4851 18.2350 6.6173
PHI 56.3073 30.4320 14.6827
CHI 62.5149 26.4415 11.5343
COL 43.6927 24.8915 12.3132


Last year's initial odds, where the least-likely team from each league advanced. This
year's odds are considerably more compact.
---------- October 3 2006 ---------------------
Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday
NYY 60.2702 34.4812 21.8372
MIN 56.5401 26.3138 15.8403
OAK 43.4599 20.0096 11.4044
DET 39.7298 19.1954 10.6975
NYM 57.3097 35.0941 16.8086
SD 56.3919 26.6521 10.1328
STL 43.6081 15.8744 4.7604
LAD 42.6903 22.3794 8.5188
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33Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 37838313
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 14:19
We discussed Wang on the road in the Clemens thread. Check Wang's road stats after taking out the games on artificial turf. Still not as good as his home numbers, but not bad. As I said in that thread, he's their ace and on natural grass (which is what they play on at the Jake) he's their most consistant starter.

remove the debacle against TOR on 8/8

In Toronto, they play on artificial turf.

And I tend to think that Torre's first choice for game 4 is Wang.
34Great One
      ID: 201155199
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 16:22
Yeah, I don't know about couting on Mussina, he hasn't exactly been reliable in the playoffs (or come up in a "big spot" as some like to say) has he?
35Kyle
      Donor
      ID: 052753312
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 18:12
RE: 34 GO- Moose in the playoffs hasn't been terrible. He's not lights out but from the stats it looks like he's gotten little or no run support.
In 22 games (21 starts)
7-8 135IPs 3.40era 1.08 WHIP (117H 29BB) 142Ks

I like those numbers, so I guess (even tho Hughes had a better season than Moose) I understand having him go game 4.
36Bandos
      ID: 7712916
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 18:53
Major Disclaimer: small sample size.

Moose's ERA in 2005/6 (which we would assume to be a better indicator than when he could break a pane of glass) was over 5. And after watching him this past year, it is a certainty that his best years are way way behind him.

that said, if the Indians don't get to him early, they might get impatient, think "how are we not crushing this guy?" and he might be able to frustrate/baffle those young hitters.

I think it will be a non-issue, and that Wang starts game 4, if there is one.

And if there is one, Wedge would be silly not to start CC on three days. That still gives him Carmona on 4 days for game 5 (at home), and Carmona, right now, is the guy I would want pitching the deciding game if I was a Tribe fan. He really impressed me and know I see why the entire league has been raving about this guy all year long.
37Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 19:45
Can't disagree with anything Bandos said.
38Perm Dude
      ID: 4591610
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 20:14
I can: Why start CC early, just to get Carmono early, which will result in one (or both) of them unavailable early for the next series if they should actually do what you hope--win the game?

Byrd won 15 games, and is a completely different pitcher from the others. There's no reason to let the Yankees get their timing down on Sabathia again. If the Indians don't take game 3 with Westbrook, make the Yankees win it against a completely different pitcher, throwing up stuff they get frustrated at not hitting all over the park.
39Electroman
      ID: 73332719
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 20:20
Don't mean to butt in on the Yanks/Tribe talk, but the Cubs can't seem to get the hits they need.
40Kyle
      Donor
      ID: 052753312
      Sat, Oct 06, 2007, 22:26
I agree with PD.

You start CC in game 5* and take Fausto in Game 1 and 5 of the next series. CC would probably be available for Game 3 and 7.

That being said the Yanks will be lucky to see Game 4 if they keep up their .121 hitting.

In other series: this just in: The Cubs can't hit. That's $130 million down the drain. (Disclaimer: I am a White Sox fan.) Lou Pinnella looks lost in the dugout, and listening to his post game interview, I don't know how anyone gets excited to play for him. The new owner (please let it be Mark Cuban) will hopefully bring in a new coach for them.

The Red Sox seem to have the series on lock down, but can they dominate the Indians lineup the same way LA Angels of Orange County seemed to have laid down and allowed them to be beaten down?

And finally, the Rockies are the team of destiny. I don't see them stopping, but they will have to face Webb at least once at the BOB. (I don't know it's new name) That'll at least prove to be a 5 game series.
41Bandos
      Sustainer
      ID: 279492419
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 09:10
PD: Carmona would be on regular rest, not early - but I may have misinterpreted what you meant by early.

What is different about the LCS now is the extra off day.
G1, G2, OFF, G3, G4, OFF, G5, OFF, G6, G7

Thus, Even if CC and Carmona did have to make starts in Game 4+5, they could pitch 3,6 and 4,7 respectively on regular rest.

Also, if the Cle series goes five, then you COULD do this (assuming carmona doesnt pitch):

Fausto, G1, G4 (on three days) and Game 7 OR G1 and G5
CC, Games 3+6.

Those two options seem like a toss up to me, so the deciding factor is play to win the series you are in.

Byrd may have had 15 wins, but I do not believe that wins are any kind of a valid measurment of a pitchers skill. The Yankees patience will eat up a Bryd who counts on guys getting themselves out. Westbrook and Byrd in Yankee Stadium = Yankee hitters in the groove by game five (and CC didnt exactly dominate them in game 1).

So, I still think that Cle needs to guarantee that Carmona pitches game 5.
42Rendle
      ID: 23756422
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 09:37
Wedge has already stated that CC won't pitch on 3 days rest. Hopefully the Indians can win a slugfest today or tomorrow.
43Rendle
      ID: 23756422
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 19:00
I can't stand these TBS commentators are F'n horrible. I'm going to radio. Why the hell was Chip Carey so excited that Jeter put down a bunt(which went foul).

How many times did he call the Yankee baserunner on 2nd the winning run when it was the top of the inning in Cleveland?

The 27 pitch first inning for Clemens was a good sign.
44J
      Leader
      ID: 049346417
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 19:52
I absolutely HATE Chip Caray...his dad and even grand dad were SOOOOO much better.

Tony Gwynn is the man though, I can listen to him 24/7
45Electroman
      ID: 73332719
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 19:57
Is he watching the game? After the Damon hit, he says that Cabrera is going to third, yet he is standing on 2nd.
46Rendle
      ID: 23756422
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 20:00
That Yankee soda was really shaken up that inning.
47Electroman
      ID: 73332719
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 20:02
Problem is, the seems to be no fizz to begin with.
48Rendle
      ID: 23756422
      Sun, Oct 07, 2007, 20:46
Meh, looks like Clemens coming out early with only giving up 3 runs was the best thing that could've happened for the Yanks.
49Great One
      ID: 201155199
      Mon, Oct 08, 2007, 20:19
Caray just said this is Mussina's first relief appearance. What? was he not watching the ALCS vs. Boston?

He corrects himself 5 minutes later. Way to be on top of things Skip.
50¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
      ID: 48910810
      Mon, Oct 08, 2007, 20:30
GO, that's not Skip Caray ... that's his unibrow son Chip.
51Perm Dude
      ID: 36957814
      Mon, Oct 08, 2007, 23:42
Well, there we go. Let's see if Torre sticks around.
52Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Mon, Oct 08, 2007, 23:55
Congrats Indians fans. With Wang falling apart, the starting pitching matchups weren't even close and the Tribe's clutch hitting was exceptional.

As well as Carmona and Byrd pitched, I was most impressed with CC. Kept the Yankee bats at bay with only his fastball working and even that was a bit wild. All he did was go right at every hitter. Won't see a gutsier performance than that.

Good luck in the ALCS.
53Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 00:06
Congrats to the Indians. They delivered, and the Yankees didn't. Great bullpen work is so huge in the playoffs. Now go kick Boston's ass!
54tastethewaste
      ID: 43921822
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 00:21
I dont know if anyones watching the post game show on TBS, but they just showed a clip of the 1986 NLCS Mets vs Astros game 3. Ron Darling pitched, and Ernie asked him for his thoughts on that game. He said I was facing Nolan Ryan that day and blah blah blah, but he faced Bob Knepper that day!! How do I know that better than the guy who pitched that game?? What kind of analyst doesnt even know who he pitched against in what was one of the most exciting playoff series of all time?? And why is Alyssa Milano on TBS now???
55Rendle
      ID: 23756422
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 01:20
Wow, what a game. I was on the edge of my seat through all 9 innings. No one makes me more nervous than Borowski. That Abreu HR was absolutely crushed.

Joe Torre is a true class act. I don't see how firing him would be a good thing for the team.

I really like the Indians chances vs Boston. IMHO, New York has a better lineup than Boston but Boston has more pitching depth but still pretty shaky after Beckett whom the Indians did hit this year. Getting CC and Fausto lined up is huge. Should be a competitive series.
56Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 09:15
Ryan Garko rips Yankee fans
"Best fans? It was great to see empty seats in the ninth inning," Garko said. "It was great doing this here."
Real class act, that one..
57¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
      ID: 5494397
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 09:47
"Best fans? It was great to see empty seats in the ninth inning," Garko said. "It was great doing this here."

Maybe they (the NYY fans) stopped believing in miracles.
58Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 10:27
Thats the Mets.
59Perm Dude
      ID: 2693498
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 10:46
I don't think Garko was slamming fans so much as slamming non-fans. And he's right.

It could be a result of the crazy high ticket prices, where a not of non-fans go to be seen rather than watch the game. But a game like last night is a game any real fan would have stayed for the last out.
60¤ Mario LeMoose ¤
      ID: 5494397
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 11:16
Thats the Mets.

Understand the connection to the '69 Mets, MITH ... but that's not what I had in mind. Jeter, Abreu, Rodriguez (then Posada, Matsui) were due to bat in the ninth and the NYY fans in attendance didn't seem to have faith those "Bombers" could win, or at least, tie the game.
61Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 11:27
PD - you are right. Garko is right. We all remarked about the empty seats last night. I think it was actually the 8th innings and there were empty seats scattered everywhere.

Maybe its the type of fan that only shows up in October (and can afford the playoff ticket prices from a StubHub or wherever)... but thats just not something you expect to see. Especially with only a guy like Joe Borowski standing in the way of a few runs from the heart of your order.

That never would have happened in the late 90's. Tino and O'Neil have been replaced with the Giambi's and Sheff's of the world... and a section of the diehard, sit there til the last pitch (and after) fan has been replaced with the kind that leaves the park early to beat the traffic just cause they are down a couple runs late in a playoff game where there entire season is on the line.
62Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 11:47
Right or wrong, what he said was a shot at the fans. You don't rip the losing team's fans after having just knocked them out of the playoffs. If the tides were turned and or someone had said it, the quote would be on the front page of the Cleveland papers.
63JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 12:02
I was at the game last night (and Sunday night) and even though it was approaching midnight, I was surprised to see the pockets of fans pack it in and leave around the 7th and 8th innings. Many of the fans staying were yelling at those departing things like 'This isn't LA', 'Go back to Queens', and other comments equally as silly.

That being said, I'd still say that maybe 10K left tops and conservatively say there were 45K plus still on their feet for the final pitch.

I'll never understand why people leave early. Tickets are expensive get your money's worth. The games are important if you are any sort of baseball fan. When you buy them you know it is going to be a late night and afterwards, it could take a while to get out of Stadium and in and out of the the lots or onto a train. If you have any recollection of recent Yankee history exciting things used to always happen in the late innings - especially the 9th and beyond.

That being said, no one - Garko or other outsiders - should ever confuse or label the small few who left early as those considered Yankee fans.
64Perm Dude
      ID: 2693498
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 12:20
the quote would be on the front page of the Cleveland papers.

Only because Cleveland is overly sensitive.

But I don't think many Cleveland fans would have left. The expense (and location) of the Yankees means that many ticket buyers are corporations using the tix as promos or giveaways.

Of course, with Scooter setting the pace, maybe Yankees fans just think the game is 7 innings long.
65Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 12:39
I was at the game last night (and Sunday night) and even though it was approaching midnight, I was surprised to see the pockets of fans pack it in and leave around the 7th and 8th innings. Many of the fans staying were yelling at those departing things like 'This isn't LA', 'Go back to Queens', and other comments equally as silly.

And they should have been! Those types of fans suck. I can see leaving in the 7th of a 10 run game, or even a 3 run game against Tampa in May. But Game 4 of the freaking playoffs with everything on the line?! c'mon people.

I almost kind of wish the Yankees would have pulled it out so those fans could have had a "Kirk Gibson - brakelights in the distance" moment...
66Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 12:44
I was at Sunday night's game. Not nearly as many left before the final out. Three Ceveland fans sitting near me did split early.
67Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 12:49
with Scooter setting the pace...

Crass.
68Perm Dude
      ID: 2693498
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 13:02
Oh, c'mon. It was a *joke*. Far too sensitive, MITH. One of his appeals is that Scooter would, indeed, duck out of games.

He's also talk over the game plays while telling stories.

But hey, he was a Yankee so there you go.
69Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 13:09
A crass joke.

Agreed, I am sensitive.
70barilko6
      ID: 44829307
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 13:46
If you have ever had a chance to hear Ryan Garko do an interview, he is one of the top 5 guys I have ever got to listen to.

Its too bad when atheletes, celebrities, musicians, etc, can't have a little fun with a light jab here and there.

Vick. Classless.
Pacman Jones. Classless
Almost all of the Bengals. Classless (This was a joke)

Garko on the Mic. Priceless.

And this is from a Toronto fan, not a Cleveland homer.
71Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 14:02
I don't doubt it but you don't rip the fans.
72barilko6
      ID: 4397912
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 14:07
Fans of a team other than his own. Isn't that what old school sports rivalries are made of?
73Perm Dude
      ID: 5896912
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 14:14
MITH: Those weren't fans leaving. Even you can admit that.
74Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 16:28
Isn't that what old school sports rivalries are made of?

Players chiding the deflated fans of a defeated opponent? Not to my knowledge. You're confusing 'old school' with the Terrell Owens school of sportsmanship.


Those weren't fans leaving.

I do agree. But he didn't specifically chide the attendees who left the game. He mocked the supposed reputation of the local fans. Obviously not as extreme as dancing on the big NY painted on the grass behind home plate but classless and uncalled for, regardless.

Should visiting players in Dolphins Stadium rip the Marlins for their empty seats? "Some fans this team has! I love playing here!" I guess in that case the player wouldn't be ripping the fans in attendance, just the one who don't show up?
75barilko6
      ID: 44829307
      Tue, Oct 09, 2007, 17:47
I think that is my biggest problem with sports nowadays, that they are too corporate. Athletes have to watch every little thing they say, for fear they might hurt someone's feelings. How many times do we as fantasy players trash talk each other???

All Garko did was rip the fans that left early, something I do everytime I go to a sporting event. Like JeffG said, even the fans in attendance were ragging on the ones that were leaving. If I was a Yankees fan, I would AGREE with what Garko said, that my fellow "fans" at the game basically sucked for leaving early in such a close game.

For More Info: Garko is commissioner of the Cleveland Indians Fantasy Football league, and just added a $100 fine to any manager if a player on their fantasy team gets arrested. This guy is hilarious!

76Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Thu, Oct 11, 2007, 11:36
Thats awesome - Garko for President!

So... who is amped for Rockies vs. Diamondbacks!?!
77Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Thu, Oct 11, 2007, 13:35
So... who is amped for Rockies vs. Diamondbacks!?!

Well, not Arizona...

As of a few days ago, there were 16,000 tickets available for Game 1 on Thursday at Chase Field

Pathetic. ALCS games sell out in less than an hour in Seattle.
78Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Thu, Oct 11, 2007, 13:42
For those who hadn't heard reason to pull for Colorado...

Rockies extend winnings to grieving widow
By Patrick Saunders
The Denver Post

Philadelphia — Add another heartfelt chapter to the Rockies' storybook season.

Manager Clint Hurdle revealed today that the players, of their own accord, voted a playoff share to Amanda Coolbaugh, the widow of Tulsa Drillers coach Mike Coolbaugh.

Coolbaugh, the Drillers' first-base coach, was killed when a line drive struck him in the head during a game earlier this summer. Tulsa is the Rockies' Double-A farm team.

Hurdle said the players' gesture says a lot about their character.

"I was passed on the information that they voted Amanda Coolbaugh a share — a full share — which I found speaks to their awareness, speaks to their passion, speaks to every good thing about them," Hurdle said.

Amanda Coolbaugh, 32, is pregnant and won't attend Saturday's Phillies-Rockies playoff game at Coors Field. But her two sons, Joseph, 5, and Jacob, 3, will be there. In fact, they will throw out the first pitch.

"When I heard about what the players did, I almost cried," Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd said. "This was the players' idea. I think it's remarkable."

If the team goes on to win the world series, the share could be as much as $362,000.
79Mattinglyinthehall
      Leader
      ID: 01629107
      Fri, Oct 12, 2007, 09:42
Interesting USA Today article on the Rockies from last year.
80blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Fri, Oct 12, 2007, 10:16
Zen 77

Keep in mind that in 2001 (the last ALCS), there was a much different tenor in Seattle. The fans rallied after the team lost Griffey, ARod, and Randy, they won 116 games, and had a new stadium, plus Edgar and a pre-deflating Bret Boone were still around. And oh yeah, they were playing the Yankees.

Arizona is in a much different situation. They are a new team that has competed a lot and even won a World Series. They were outscored during the regular season. Their stars are relative unknowns (even Webb emerged only three years ago, hardly like the Mariner stars). Put that in a transient city against a non-rival like Colorado, and it seems obvious why they had trouble selling tickets.

And last night it got worse when they threw stuff on the field.
81Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Mon, Oct 15, 2007, 04:51
So Colorado is now up 3-0 and 1 game away from the World Series. Amazing. Who would've thought they'd be in the position they are in now after not having a winning season since 1997 and gave little reason for anyone to believe they'd fare much better, if at all, this year. They've now won 20 of their last 21 (first team to do that since the '35 Cubs) and are 6-0 in the postseason (first team to do that since the Big Red Machine went all the way in '76).

If they do make the World Series, they would have a very viable shot to come out on top. Their young SPs have come through and they might have the deepest and best bullpen of all the remaining playoff teams. I looked up some stats and was surprised to see that Hawkins and Herges had very good years (especially Herges - 2.98 ERA 1.01 WHIP .198 BAA - where did THAT come from?) and then there is Fuentes and Corpas who both have had dominant years (minus Fuentes' 5 game stretch in late June - which probably turned out to be a good thing for them as it allowed Corpas to move into the closer's role). Jeremy Affeldt will also come into play as a situational lefty (Ortiz is 1-13 in his career against him, Hafner 1-8, Sizemore 2-9). They get very timely hitting and the defense is of the best in MLB history. I think the key for them will be their starting pitching and their ability to be successful against Boston or Cleveland's lineup, but I think they will do well enough and are now my pick to win it all. Also, not that it holds much weight, but Colorado was 2-1 against Boston this year, outscoring them 20-5 where both Beckett and Schilling got rocked (pun intended) in their starts.

On a side note, I'm not a fan of how Arizona organized their rotation. I really think Owings should be their #2 starter as he's had a better year (including a great 2nd half) than games 2 and 3 starters Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez. Seems that experience played a key in the decision making process, which I tend to think is overrated. Arizona could have also used a healthy RJ for this series, who was pitching very well himself before he went down after just 10 starts.

82Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Mon, Oct 15, 2007, 09:30
I wonder how bad the ratings are for Arizona vs. Colorado... likely not very good.
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