RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: The Bill James effect

Posted by: blue hen
- [16322314] Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 10:11

I guess it's time to talk about this... Bill James joined the Red Sox staff in late 2002. In 2003, the team lost the ALCS in dramatic fashion. In 2004, they won the World Series. In 2005 and 2006, they won the Wild Card, and in 2007, they go to the World Series. In my mind, it is no coincidence: any team that acquired the services of Bill James was going to be wildly successful.

Discuss.
1JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 10:41
2006 mlb standings
2Toral
      ID: 575542418
      Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 11:07
The causal relationship probably works differently. The kind of owner knowledgable to enough to want James' services and to hire him and Epstein, and a GM knowledgable enough to use James' services productively, are likely to be very successful.

I'm reluctant to ascribe too much of the success to James because it's unclear how much he affects decisions. He is reportedly involved in deciding how much to pay players to resign/come as free agents. Have the Red Sox been particularly good in that area? I don't know.

If you google "Bill James" interview there's a Boston Globe interview as the 2nd item which shed a little light on what he actually does.

Toral
3blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 11:51
Oh yeah, I knew that, JeffG. But you get the point.
4blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 11:55
Did John Henry's previous teams have this kind of success? How about Theo's? Francona's?

For years, Bill James has been finding the Dustin Pedroias, the Kevin Youkilises, the Kevin Millars, and the Dave Robertses. Look back at some of those abstracts and he's uncannily correct. And he got blasted for it. Anyone remember the Jeff Bagwell situation?

Finally, he has a steady spot, with a team that will spend cash if it's adviseable, and look what has happened.
5Perm Dude
      ID: 55937226
      Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 12:14
I would say "wildly" is a bit of an exageration, but Bill James should have a place at the table, IMO. And, as a member of a committee he's likely to be a valuable contributor. But I don't think, for a moment, that Bill James himself is responsible for "finding" every nugget out there. Player development is the key to long-term sucess at the MLB level, and James is more about analysis that development.
6blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 12:53
No, James can't teach a kid how to throw a curve ball. He can tell the team that this kid, who throws an imposing curveball, isn't going to be any good, because let's look at the example of this other kid, who also had a nasty curve and flamed out.

Seriously, look at the old abstracts. Year after year, James found good players other people ignored. You just knew if he found his way onto a team, they'd be successful for years and years.
7Toral
      ID: 575542418
      Thu, Oct 25, 2007, 08:42
bh, you're preaching to the choir. You know that it was me who preached to you the Bill James gospel and urged you to get his old Abstracts and start reading them, well before you worked for ESPN.

James is a brilliant analyst and writer. If one gets anything(s) from his work, it is the following two things:

1) think for yourself;
2) seek evidence.

We don't know for a fact that Bill was big on Dustin Pedroia. We won't know whether he was or not until current people retire/leave/are fired and start writing autos.

Bill was asked in an interview last year (not in this year of Sox good playoff performance) what was the most important factor in post-season success. I would think his answer would be known by any baseball fan. His answer was:

"Luck"

Toral
8Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 09:30
BILL JAMES TOP 25 UNDER 30 by Nick, I'm Writing Sports

Baseball Digest got a hold of a segment from Bill James upcoming book in which he lists the top 25 players under 30-years-old. While compiling the players for his “Young Talent Inventory,” James obviously eliminated all players that are 30 years old or older. He then used two criteria, runs created (for position players) and runs allowed (for pitchers). He then did some more voodoo magic with the numbers, and then he decided how many years each player had before reaching 33. You know, because baseball is played on a calculator. The problem with his is list is that you can't say that the basic criteria is being under 30 and good, because after looking at the names, it's not. This is his personal opinion, backed by stats. It's not a scientific problem backed by his opinion. I used to have a lot of respect for James until I saw this atrocity. On with the lists.

Hitters
1. Prince Fielder
2. Hanley Ramirez
4. David Wright
7. Jose Reyes
9. Grady Sizemore
11. Ryan Zimmerman
12. Troy Tulowitzki
13. Miguel Cabrera
14. Ryan Braun
16. Nicholas Markakis
18. Adrian Gonzalez
22. Curtis Granderson
25. Chris Young

Pitchers
3. Fausto Carmona
5. Felix Hernandez
6. Scott Kazmir
8. Matt Cain
10. Cole Hamels
15. Justin Verlander
17. Jake Peavy
19. Tom Gorzelanny
20. James Shields
21. CC Sabathia
23. Brandon Webb
24. Chad Billingsley
9Great One
      Sustainer
      ID: 053272014
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 09:31
I personally think its a pretty good keeper ranking! I'd like to see BJ Upton up there for hitters... no other major complaints.
10Perm Dude
      ID: 5936267
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 09:36
Given the gold crowns some people are willing to give James, I'd be interested, if anyone can find it, in seeing lists like this from 5-10 years ago.
11blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 09:58
Note that there's no Pujols, Holliday, or Utley on that list.

Toral, I know you've touted James for years, but don't take too much credit. I owned five Bill James books before I ever discovered the internet.

Perm Dude, here is a snippet about one famous James call, text from Jeff Bagwell's wikipedia entry:
Bagwell is famous as the test case for the Bill James style of baseball analysis. When Bagwell came up, James predicted he would be a star. That prediction (and more importantly, the basis on which it was made) was hotly contested by an established sportwriter of the old school. As we've seen, James turned out to be right.

Maybe this weekend, I'll see if I can find some quotes from old abstracts. The one I really remember is Shane Mack. James predicted after 1990 that Mack was a serious breakout candidate. His numbers in 1991? Only a 955 OPS as the Twins won the World Series.

James was also all over Chipper Jones, but so was everyone else. I'll find you some nice quotes.

12Razor
      ID: 136523110
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 10:17
Is there a catcher on his list? Seems his list is biased against them since at least one of Mauer, McCann, Martin and Martinez could have made the list. Morneau is another notable omission from the hitter side.

As for as pitchers go, seems like the NL's best two pitchers could be ranked a little higher.
13DWetzel from work
      ID: 3316412
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 10:26
And no Ryan Howard, for that matter--which may or may not be accurate.


I LIKE Bill James. I've got a few of his old Abstracts around the house as well. But I think that, while he's probably better than the average schmuck, and I think his analyses have value, it's important to remember he's definitely had his share of big-time whiffs as well.
14blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 10:38
I am sure, that if this in an upcoming book, that James will address the missing names. There isn't much context in this. Is there a link?
15Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 11:16
For years, Bill James has been finding the Dustin Pedroias, the Kevin Youkilises, the Kevin Millars, and the Dave Robertses.

Youkilis was drafted before James joined the Red Sox and Roberts played 45 unspectacular games for the Sox (although he did hit FAR better than his career numbers during the Fenway games).

And Pedroia wasn't exactly some unknown kid when he was drafted. he showed decent power for a MI, and had a .645 OBP his senior year. his OPS was over 1.100...

not trying to take away from James, but those that love him tend to take common sense out of their arguments and lavish praise where it might not be due.
16blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 11:24
There were several decent shortstops available in the 2004 draft: Matt Bush, Chris Nelson, Stephen Drew, Trevor Plouffe, Reid Brignac, and Brian Bixler. Why did the Red Sox get Pedroia? They must be better at talent evaluation than the Padres, Rockies, DBacks, Twins, DRays, and Pirates. Do you think James had a hand in that? I do.

And before it gets started, I know Brignac is still a prospect. But the DRays are among the best at evaluation. You get the point.
17Tree
      ID: 3533298
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 12:58
Matt Bush, Chris Nelson, Stephen Drew, Trevor Plouffe, Reid Brignac, and Brian Bixler. Why did the Red Sox get Pedroia? They must be better at talent evaluation than the Padres, Rockies, DBacks, Twins, DRays, and Pirates. Do you think James had a hand in that? I do.

i think you're proving my point.

Bush, Nelson, Plouffe, and Brignac were all high schoolers when drafted, and clearly not at the maturity level of Pedroia, Drew, and Bixler.

it doesn't take genius to predict that a player four years older might be more major league ready, and develop at a quicker pace. Bixler had a reasonably decent minor league campaign, and Drew has been a bust so far compared to expectations, but, again, to think that drafting a stud college player over a developing high school player and thinking that he might be more more Major League ready a genius does not make.
18blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 14:46
I'm not claiming Bill James is smarter than you; only smarter than those other teams' management. As of right now, I'd say any of those teams would rather have Pedroia than who they got, except maybe Brignac. And that's my point.

Bill James got a batting title out of Bill Mueller. He got solid work out of Kevin Millar. He's seen Papelbon and Beckett find greatness. He got rid of Pedro before the breakdown. He got rid of Nomar before the breakdown.

I say just about all of those moves are unqualified successes, and I would definitely say James played a large role in those moves.
19Razor
      ID: 136523110
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 15:07
Kevin Millar? Seriously? The guy was actually better before he became a Red Sox.

Anyone can get lucky, which is exactly what happened with Bill Mueller. Mueller was great for one season and very mediocre for his other two seasons.

Beckett has had one great season with Boston and one poor season, hardly an unqualified success. You couldn't find one person around baseball who was not convinced that Beckett was a flatout stud after the 2003 World Series.

It doesn't take a genius to get rid of injury prone, aging stars who are due for big pay days. Finding Papelbon is the only undeniably excellent transaction I see on your list, but I have no reason to believe that James' had any bigger role in that drafting than Epstein or someone else in Red Sox management whose job it is to scout talent in the draft.
20Perm Dude
      ID: 5936267
      Fri, Oct 26, 2007, 15:24
Bill James got a batting title out of Bill Mueller...

Uh, no. He didn't. Bill James doesn't teach hitting. He's not a coach. He has nothing to do with the day-to-day playing, either on a team or player level.

What Bill James does is analysis, and a great analyst will give a team a distinctive edge, over the long-term, than players with poor or mediocre analysts.

It doesn't take a genius to get rid of injury prone, aging stars...

Absolutely. James moved a 32-year-old 16-9, 4.37 ERA SP and this is a sign of genius? James couldn't hold the jockstrap of Mark Shapiro about the timeliness of getting rid of stars. Even if we agreed that it was Bill James making the move (which I'm not willing to concede).
21Razor
      ID: 136523110
      Tue, Oct 30, 2007, 17:01
The Dodgers site reports that Bill James has the Dodgers ranked 20th in young talent in his book. This is a franchise with Martin, Loney, Kemp, Billingsley, Ethier and Broxton all starting and strong prospects like Kershaw, LaRoche, Hu, and Abreu on the farm.
22Kyle @school
      ID: 53913016
      Tue, Oct 30, 2007, 18:09
Feels good to have Fielder, Carmona, A Gonzalez, and Kazmir in my keeper fantasy league.

I don't know how I feel about Bill James, but after reading Moneyball I liked him. I then read Moneyball again and I saw the Billy Beane passes on Verlander for someone I hadn't heard of. Wow...

Still James is a really smart guy to compile all these stats.
23Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Tue, Oct 30, 2007, 18:31
Tigers took Verlander #2 overall in 2004. Padres had the first pick so Beane obviously never had a chance at Verlander.

Do you mean Bonderman?
24blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Wed, Oct 31, 2007, 13:59
Oakland took Bonderman and Bobby Crosby back to back in 2001, 25-26. Beane was mad because he felt taking college players is more accurate than high schoolers.

25blue hen
      ID: 16322314
      Wed, Oct 31, 2007, 14:00
Hell, here's one college guy that was around...

140. Philadelphia -- Ryan Howard, 1b, Southwest Missouri State
26Mattinglyinthehall
      ID: 454491514
      Fri, Feb 15, 2008, 16:06
Jeremy Brown retires.
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread




Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Click here to insert a random spelling of Mientkiewicz
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours11
Last 7 days22
Last 30 days1412
Since Mar 1, 200725821002