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Subject: RIBC History, Draft position analysis.
Posted by: JeffG
- Leader [01584348] Wed, Feb 13, 2008, 23:47
One interesting feature of the RIBC and qualifying leagues is that we have a draft to select our drafting position. Since the RIBC started in 2004, there have been a total of 20 leagues. Since we snake, I have always thought that any specific draft position had no advantage over another but wanted to see how the positions have historically done to date. Going through the rationale, retrospective and discussion threads I was able to collect data for 15 of the 20 leagues, looking for draft position and finish. You can see the raw data in this file: raw data
Sure enough, you can see in this chart that the distribution is pretty spread out. results |
| 1 | holt
ID: 360131020
Thu, Feb 14, 2008, 05:06
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thanks for putting that together JeffG!
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| 2 | blue hen
ID: 16322314
Thu, Feb 14, 2008, 09:43
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That's extremely interesting. It's varied from year to year where the cutoff is for the "top tier" but as you can see, that doesn't matter much.
It'd be interesting to see how much effect transaction count has on the standings.
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| 3 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Feb 14, 2008, 10:56
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I could only look in Yahoo in the RIBC leagues I have been in, but there seems to be no relation between the number of roster transaction moves made and final position, with the exception that those with blatantly low amounts of moves tend to be at the bottom. That is easily attributed to manager apathy.
........---- roster transactions----
Finish..2007....2006....2005....2004
=======.====....====....====....====
1........42......80......26......58
2........24.....100......33......31
3........60.....100.....104......61
4........18......27.....125......23
5........15......38......39......24
6........33......25......24......41
7........33.....137......37......30
8.......113......41......10......66
9........33......47.....101.......1
10.......34......14......36......10
11......112......10......12......57
12.......58......30.....121.......4
13.......58......66......28......17
14.......17......31......89......14
15.......26......83......24......33
16.......33.......8......14......29
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| 4 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Feb 14, 2008, 16:18
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Here is the table so it can be viewed in this thread... | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Finish | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Draft position | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Grand Total | | 1 | 1 | | 3 | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 15 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | | 15 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | 4 | 2 | 1 | | | 1 | 15 | | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | | 5 | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 2 | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 15 | | 6 | 4 | 1 | | | | 2 | 2 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | | | 15 | | 7 | 1 | | 1 | | | | | | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | 2 | | 15 | | 9 | | | | 2 | 3 | | | 1 | 2 | | 1 | | 2 | | 3 | 1 | 15 | | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | | 15 | | 11 | | 2 | | 2 | | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | 1 | | 1 | 15 | | 12 | | 1 | | | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 3 | | | 1 | 2 | 1 | | 15 | | 13 | | 1 | 2 | 3 | | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | | 14 | | 1 | | 2 | 2 | | | 1 | | | | 2 | 2 | 3 | | 2 | 15 | | 15 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | | | | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | | 16 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | 15 | | Grand Total | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | draft pos | | average finish | | comments | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 8.20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | | 7.93 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | | 8.53 | | only 1 bottom 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 | | 11.00 | | 4 top 3s, 8 bottom 3s, 4 lasts | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5 | | 8.07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6 | | 6.20 | | 4 firsts, no bottom 3s | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7 | | 10.67 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | | 6.67 | | 5 top 3s | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9 | | 9.80 | | no top 3s | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 | | 6.87 | | no bottom 3s | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11 | | 7.60 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12 | | 8.60 | | only 1 top 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 13 | | 8.80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14 | | 10.13 | | only 1 top 3, 5 bottom 3s | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 15 | | 9.13 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16 | | 7.80 | | only 1 bottom 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | finish | | average draft pos | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 6.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | | 9.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | | 6.67 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 | | 10.93 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5 | | 10.67 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6 | | 8.60 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7 | | 8.93 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | | 10.73 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9 | | 6.47 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 | | 8.53 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11 | | 5.93 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12 | | 7.67 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 13 | | 9.07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 14 | | 8.87 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 15 | | 9.87 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16 | | 8.07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 5 | Building 7
ID: 471052128
Fri, Feb 22, 2008, 16:41
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So, historically, the best chance to finish first is to draft 6th. With four 1st place finishes. Thus, if you have the first choice of draft slots, the wise move is to select 6th.
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| 6 | weykool
ID: 2842717
Fri, Feb 22, 2008, 16:56
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Here are the results from 2006 AA Coast to coast.
Rank Team
1 Rangers_Homer
2 Bash Brothers
3 allhair's pine tar
4 Smith32
5 Tytanaq Failures
6 Aggy's Miracles
7 Weykool
7 Munson Mobsters
9 Friars in OC
10 WG
11 GF's BrewCrew
12 Steve Biz
13 FTF Polar Bears
14 gunz
15 Chico's Bail Bonds
16 DAYTON DRAGONS
Draft order:
1 Friars in OC
2 Aggy's Miracles
3 Bash Brothers
4 allhair's pi...
5 DAYTON DRAGONS
6 GF's BrewCrew
7 Steve Biz
8 Rangers_Homer
9 FTF Polar Bears
10 Weykool
11 Munson Mobsters
12 WG
13 Smith32
14 gunz
15 Chico's Bail...
16 Tytanaq Fail...
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| 7 | weykool
ID: 2842717
Fri, Feb 22, 2008, 17:36
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I wonder how much the numbers a skewed by players playing abov or below their projections.
For instance last year Albert had a crappy year for a #1 pick while A-Rod played well above his draft ranking due to him burning all his owners in 2006.
I wonder about the correlation to waiver moves as well.
Seems to me too many moves could mean a poor draft and a grasping at straws to make up for it.
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| 8 | biliruben
ID: 5610442715
Fri, Feb 22, 2008, 17:55
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Sweet Analysis.
Maybe there is a drop off between the top 15-20 players and the rest?
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| 9 | Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Mon, Feb 25, 2008, 10:57
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2007 AAA International, 2006 Pacific Coast League:
and third column is a 2005 AA league
# of moves
Teams 1-5(2007 tis for third):
87 : 93 : 158
75 : 35 : 37
51 : 17 : 118
87 : 29 : 24
26 : 124 : 40
the 14-16th place teams starting with 14th:
22 : 107 :14
18 : 20 : 15
48 : 16 : 54
There appears to be little conclusion from such a small sample, other than 2 patterns of management style. Few roster moves due to great draft, believing underperforming will play better, few injuries and a managers lack of competitive interest ..versus high roster moves, due to rolling SP, many injuries, trying to find a 3rd MI or CI or picking up hot FA only drop them when they cool off.
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