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0 Subject: RIBC 2008: Draft Rationales (Rounds 7-12)

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 10, 2008, 18:46

Continuing for the next six rounds.

Rationales for round 1-6
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41dror
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:35
9.11 Yunel Escobar SS ATL
Escobar was as low as I was willing to get in SS. The way I see it, things turn real ugly in that position after him so I was willing to make a small reach here. Now I only need to find a CI and I'm finally done with infielders for good.

Escobar will not hurt me in the averages (at least not as much as the other SS still available), and he will open the season as the every day leadoff hitter for a strong offensive team. If he can just hold on to that spot for the entire season the numbers will be just fine.

42blue hen
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:35
9.12 Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA

After 8 picks, I had four pitchers. At that point, it really struck me that I should work on my hitting. Last year, I reached for Hermida in the 12th round and it turned out to be a great pick. I'm happy to have Hermida with this pick - he's on the way up as opposed to some other players on my team.


for Taxman
9.13 Hank Blalock, 3B, Tex
Blaylock had a rib removed at the end of the 2007 season, as his numbers had declined drastically from 2004. The Texas brain trust (same people that traded Teixeira) believe that Blaylock will return to his 2004 type numbers. Blaylock claims to be free of the motion restriction/discomfort caused by the removed rib. Batting in the 5 hole in a souped up Texas line up, Blaylock will (better) score 75 runs, drive in another 90, generate no steals, a .360 OBA and a .485 SLG%

43Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:36
9.14 John Maine SP NYM
I can go ahead and draft one of the remaining closers available, or add a second SP to the roster … and decide to go the SP route. Candidates include Maine, Burnett, Pedro, Liriano and [undrafted]. I expect that Maine will end up pitching the most innings this summer, so I decide to take him. A few too many walks, but nice K/9, and a good opportunity for wins pitching for the NYM.
44Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:36
9.15 Orlando Hudson 2B ARI
I extended my streak of picking up middle infielders with the first name of Orlando in consecutive odd rounds to an unofficial record of two. The danger with later middle infielder picks is that they tend to really hurt your percentages, but that shouldn't be the case for Hudson. He's been above .800 OPS the last couple years while showing improvement.
45JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 12:40
9.16 A.J. Burnett SP Tor

I was going to go after a 3B or MI here, but there was no one player who stood out to me, and there seem to be enough of the same still out there that it won't hurt the efforts to wait. Was not necessarily targeting a starter, but I feel he is the best one left on the board, especially after my SP depth chart started getting picked away (Cain, Sheets, Gallardo). He's a strikeout pitcher who has seen double digit wins in each of the last three years, even with missing the equivalent of 7-10 starts the last two seasons. AJ's ERA is pretty consistently in the 3's year after year. No high expectations here, just hoping for more of the same and a hope for good health.


10.01 Jacoby Ellsbury OF Bos

One of the things about bypassing Carl Crawford TWICE in the first two rounds of the draft means like almost everyone else in this league, I have to find steals in other places to at least stay in the middle of the pack in that category. Last year I had a bunch of different players who all contributed about 20 steals each, but this year has played out differently. Except for Soriano, my offensive selections to date have all been no-steal 4 toolers who are on the high side in SLG in RBI for their position, which at least means I can afford to take a speed guy like Ellsbury now who is below average for mid round OF in those other two areas. I have seen SB projections in the 30s, and that seems reasonable, assuming he as expected gets more playing time at CF then his possible platoon-mate. If he is at the top the lineup and gets on base, there are a lot of guys who can get him home.
46Slackjawed Yokel
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 17:54
10.02 Joe Borowski RP CLE
Well, after missing out on the closer run of the last round, I thought I'd grab one of the last guys with somewhat of a lock on the closer job. Borowski had somewhat of an odd season last year with 45 saves to go along with an ERA over 5. I can't say I'd be happy with that this time around, but I think if he keeps the job all year it'll be with a lower ERA. I thought about Troy Glaus here or another SP, but it was too late for me to punt saves after taking Jenks in the 6th.
47Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 17:55
10.03 ~ Delmon Young, OF, MIN

I’m not real happy with this pick. I was rushed trying to get out the door for work, and should have anticipated that Jhonny Peralta (who I really wanted) wasn’t going to last until my next pick at 11.14. Instead of Peralta, or likely my last chance at a second closer … I go with the young, dynamic Delmon Young. His OBP is too low, but he has speed and power and lots of HOF-potential upside. There are available players that will probably put up better numbers that Delmon, but none that will make me want to pull out my old Twins “Homer Hanky”. Go Delmon!
48Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:06
for Taxman
10.04 Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM
Dreaming of years gone by, the second half of yesteryear's Randro seemed like a great opportunity. Pedro has not suffered much wear and tear the past couple years and should be able to deliver double digit wins and mid-triple digit K’s. At 36, he is not ancient (reference Smoltz and Maddux) and he projects in 2008 to win 14 games, get 155 K’s in 165 innings, with a 3.50 ERA and a 2.20 ERA.
49Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:07
for blue hen
10.05 Troy Glaus, 3B, STL

Third base is a very deep position these days. There are good 3Bs at all tiers, from A-Rod, Wright and Cabrera on down. When I couldn't get one of those three, I decided to wait a while, passing on guys like Aramis, Chipper, and Zimmerman. Many rounds later, I landed Glaus. When healthy, Glaus measures up with those other guys. A healthy season means a real coup here.

There another interesting piece here. Glaus has played quite a few games at shortstop in his career. And now his manager is Tony LaRussa, the one guy creative enough to play his third baseman at short, giving me a boost at middle infield. Wouldn't that be sweet?
50Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:07
for dror
10.06 Eric Gagne RP MIL
I needed a second closer badly, and even though Gagne wasn't exactly who I had in mind before the draft I think he will be just fine. Before the disaster that was his stint in the Boston pressure cooker last year, he was actually pretty good in Texas. I think that coming back to the NL will be very good for him, and the Brewers are a strong enough team to provide him with plenty of save chances.
51Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:08
for Dave R
10.07 Dustin Pedroia 2B Bos

I was getting a bit concern as to not having chosen a second basemen by now. I had a group of 4 that I felt were all on about a level playing field. Anyone would do, and I almost decided to wait til next round, figuring at least on of the 4 would be still available. But I also knew that eventually I would not only need someone to play second, but another MI as well.

The choices at other positions I was looking at didn't give me the sense that they were more important than filling a vacant slot. So I narrowed my choice to Pedroia.

Dustin probably never will be in the upper tier of second basemen. He won't steal bases, hit a bunch of HR's or drive in a lot of runs.

But he is a good contact hitter and should easily hit over .300 and in the potent Red sox lineup score over 100 runs.

He's just the kind of guy won't WOW you with lofty stats, but who doesn't do anything to hurt you. Just the kind of guy I was looking for.
52Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:08
for JL
10.08 Todd Jones RP DET
At one time or another, most of us have had to take our beloved old dog to the vet to be euthanized. You know that you're going to feel terrible afterwards and you want to put it off as long as possible, but you know that it has to be done eventually. That's what it felt like to take my first closer in the 10th round with Todd Jones. Okay, apparently appropriate analogies are not my strong suit, but I needed to bite the bullet and take a closer, despite knowing beforehand that I would not be happy with the pick. What's done is done, though, and it needed to be done. I can accept the 4.50 ERA if he can get me 35 saves.
53Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:09
for RoBoGuRu
10.09 J.J. Hardy SS MIL
I had a couple players in mind here but only Hardy seemed like a player that wouldn't be available the next round (or at least someone of equal value). I considered filling my CI (Garko ended up lasting 2 more rounds)or SP3(Liriano was taken a few picks later) slots here but felt that the pools at both places were deeper than the remaining SS. I feel quite comfortable with JJ as my 'weakest' of 3 MI. Bonus if he can carry a hot start like he had last year deeper into the season this year.
54Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:09
for Flying Polack
10.10 Geovany Soto C CHC
I tabbed Soto as my catcher before the draft started; I just had to figure out what round made the most sense. The other RIBC drafts didn’t give me much insight. In AAA PCL he went 8.07, in AAA IL he went 15.12. Talk about a disparity. Since all the options discussed in pick 9.07 were gone, I just decided to get him in the 10th. In a 16 team league, if you really want a guy, sometimes you have to take him a round early.
55Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 18:10
10.11 Placido Polanco, 2B, Det
I was hoping John Maine would make it to this pick, but it wasn’t even close. Dustin Pedroia was also on my short list. And Pedro Martinez would have been very tempting if he was still available.

Not to be.

I still need 2 more middle infielders and two more corner infielders. I think the supply of cornermen is deeper – although I may not feel that way when I get around to taking one.

Last year Polanco produced ratios of .388/.458 while scoring 105 and deriving in 67. If he would reproduce those stats this year, this pick is a steal. None of the projections I’ve seen suggest that he can repeat, but at age 32 in a good lineup, I can always hope! And as a MI, he doesn’t need that level of success to be valuable.
56Bash Brothers
      ID: 23755618
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 19:27
10.12 Troy Percival RP
To me, this is like a garbage pick. I just didn't want to be left behind in the Save column. As middle-pack closer long gone before my eight round pick, my 4th round pick Nathan looked like a waste. However, to stay close to the race, I still got to draft a second closer. Well, not actually a real closer by our standard definition, but one who just happens to be lucky enough to pitch in the 9th inning. Coming out from retirement in 2007, Percival displayed diminished but still respectable pitching touch. The Rays signed him to be their 2008 closer (at least they said so). He won't pitch often (might not exceed 50 innings), but I am hoping to squeeze out 20 saves from his old body.
57Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 05:19
for coldwater coyotes
10.13 Brian Wilson, RP, SF
I hate this pick. I had to have a second closer but you would think that I could find somebody better than Wilson. He is a below average pitcher on a very bad team. It looks like I will have to strike it lucky by picking up a new closer on the waiver wire.
58Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 05:20
10.14 Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
I need two more MI. I was hoping, but not expecting, for either Polanco or Pedroia to fall to me here. When they came off the board, I took my next highest rated MI. This is probably too early for him, but I don’t have him ranked that far below the two 2B. Position need led me to just take him now and not worry about it. He is in a good lineup so his chances to produce will be there. He raised his BA quite nicely last year. I’m hoping that means he can continue to improve and maybe bring his OBP closer to what it was a few years ago.
59StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 09:54
10.15 Jason Giambi, 1B/DH, NYY
Giambi seems to be getting the nod to play 1B this year. Hopefully that allows hims to get 400+ ABs this year, and if he does then he should be a real value pick at 10.15. Always has a great obp and should knock in a bunch of runs for his ABs in the middle of that potent lineup. I really wanted to anchor my lineup with another power bat and I feel I have done just that. Last year Giambi was taken much higher and didn't produce at that level, but as a 10th round pick this year he should have no trouble attaining what is expected, barring injury of course.
60Building 7
      ID: 48033121
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 10:53
10.16, Carlos Marmol, RP, CUBS

I had this guy on my team last year. He was awesome. If he can pitch like last year, and if he can be the closer.....he would be one of the best closers. That's a couple big if's though. Here is his batting average against in 28 day games - .102. In all games it was .169. I could go on. Predictions: 80 innings, 47 hits, 2 HR's, 111 K's, 0.99 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2 Wins, 44 saves. Since I'm making it up, I'm going to make up something good . I was hoping Soto would make it to me. Also considered Wiggington, Sherrill, and Lilly. Out of the 31 picks since my last selection, there were only about 3 picks that I would not have chosen here, if they were still available. I'm not sure what to make of that, except I'm starting to think like everyone else. The top MR's usually start getting picked around round 12 maybe. Well, Carlos is one of the best, and he has a chance to get some saves, too. Also, with his +1 K/inning, I don't have to draft a SP that gets a lot of K's.

11.01, Ken Griffey, Jr.,OF, CIN

One of the biggest sluggers left. If he can play most the year, this should work out. He can still hit. I wanted to get an outfielder here. The speedy ones are dropping, but I don't really need SB's. If I had not taken Ichiro early, I would have jumped on one of these speed bargains....Byrnes, Victorino, etc. I'm not sure why no one is interested in big-time SB guys. It's all about the % categories, I guess. Maybe the RBI category also. The back of Griffey's right earlobe has not been injured yet, so he may miss some time with that or some other ailment.
61StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 10:58
11.02 Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN
I really didn’t know what I was going to do with this pick. Picking 2nd it is a long time before my next pick comes back around so I really have to project what is going to happen over the next two rounds. I was torn between taking a hitter or a pitcher. I only had 1 OF at this point so taking some more would seem to be the right move. Several were there that would be nice picks, but looking over the various teams it seemed to me that a lot of guys would be happy with their current OF situation and at most 5 or 6 OFers would go over the next two rounds, so I felt that pitching was more likely to thin out before it came back to me.

Had Marmol still been available I might have taken him, but since he isn't yet the closer I'm not sure I would have pulled the trigger anyway. Liriano obviously was a rising star before he blew out his arm so his name probably influenced my pick more than it should have. Right after I picked him I went and read some things that weren’t as strong as I would have liked to have read. Namely he seems afraid to let go on his awesome slider and he says he no longer is a hard thrower with his new delivery hitting 89-90 in spring training. My hope is that he improves throughout the season. I think he’ll be ok once he gets his confidence back and he should still have a good whip and era and has a good bullpen behind him to get him out of any jams he might get into. At least he has had success before and I think that will go along a way towards this year.

62StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 11:01
for Uptown Bombers
11.03 Brandon Lyon, RP, ARI
This guy has just as good a shot to produce numbers as the 7 closers that were drafted before him, which goes all the way back to the end of round 8. So in my mind, 35 picks later it was worth the risk. Once I passed on taking two closers earlier, I figured I would just wait until the last possible moment and pick from the scraps. This, I think, is that moment. Looking down the draft board, there are some teams with only one closer. Don’t know for sure, but I figure at least a few of them are looking for another. This guy has been named the starter, but obviously he has some competition in the bullpen. Maybe I get lucky and he holds the job all year. Arizona is a good team, so he stands to get enough opportunities. Not likely, but worth the gamble. Such is the nature of the bottom of the barrel closer ranks.
63Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 15:49
for coldwater coyotes
11.04 Adam LaRoche 1B PIT
I had always planned on taking LaRoche as my 1B so it was only a question of how long could I wait. I could possibly have waited until the 12th or 13th rounds but it wasn't worth the risk. I am expecting 95 RBIs and a .850 OPS.
64Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 15:51
for Bash Brothers
11.05 Tim Hudson SP ATL
Due to insecurity from my closer position, I intended to draft a late-inning reliever with potential to become a closer. But it's too early to pick one here. I wanted to trade down, but nobody was interested. So I picked a SP and hoped for the best. Fortunately the guy I targeted (Broxton) went right back to me at 12.12.

Speaking of Hudson, he is not the strikeout pitcher he once was anymore. But he does pitch efficiently. A repeat of last year's result is not out of reach, and I can live with that. I was also considering Penny, Wang (both for the W) and Snell (for the K). But the one I liked most was Weaver. (You can refer to Dave R's rationale to see why). I was just foolish enough to think he would make his way back to me in round 12/13. Lesson learned.

65Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 15:56
11.06 Khalil Greene, SS, SD
I really wrestled long and hard with this pick.

Thus far, my hitters have a very solid OBP, so I can afford to absorb a low one. The ranks at SS are thin and getting thinner, but Greene offers good runs, RBIs, and power. The catch is his on-base average, which was sub-.300 last year. That really sucks. But it’s not THAT much worse that the other available shortstops.

My ranking approach really seems to favor guys with good OBP (see Burrell & Youkilis) and to penalize guys like Greene. And yet, I still have him as the highest ranked available SS. Still, I’m not in love with this choice. Call it a pick based on fit and need. I think I can handle his low OBP, and the rest of his profile fits my needs – most of all, his position. And now he’ll probably proceed to give me fits all year.
66Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 17:08
11.07 Lastings Milledge, OF, WAS
Lastings has been at the top of my rankings for a while. Let’s just say he’s ranked between Granderson and Pence, who went long ago. I think that forecast is overly optimistic, but at some point you have to say what the heck. The one thing he should bring, which I definitely need, is speed. Even if his OPS isn’t as high as projected, hopefully he’ll swipe 20+ bags.

Anyway, Lastings is having a great camp. He’s hitting .389, with 6 extra base hits and 5 SB’s in 36 AB’s. Maybe that draft sheet is onto something.
67JL
      ID: 92551316
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 18:57
for Robo
11.08 Adam Wainwright

I like Adam in my SP3 spot. He pitched well in the second half, improving in just about every stat category. His Ks were up, BBs were down, nice ERA, and low HR rate. I'm hoping this season he embraces the role as staff ace and develops into the first round pick that he is.

Something in the neighborhood of 15W, 150K, 3.60ERA, and 1.30 WHIP seems reasonable and would make this a pretty good pick.

68JL
      ID: 92551316
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:08
11.09 Chien-Ming Wang

I needed starting pitching and there were plenty of solid options, with Ian Snell, Brad Penny, and Jered Weaver on the board. I also considered Sherrill, but I just don't see him hanging on to the closer role in Baltimore. In retrospect, I probably should've ignored my gut and taken the risk on Sherrill. I decided to go with Wang, though, because he looks like a sure-bet to win 18-20 games with that Yankee offense. It came down to Snell and Wang. Their ratios will be about the same, but Snell will strike out 100 more hitters and Wang will win 10 more games. In the end, I decided to go with the Wins. Tough choice.
69Dave R
      SuperDude
      ID: 3010361110
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:14
11.10 Jered Weaver sp LAA

I don't know if I am alone, but I love to watch Jered pitch. He doesn't seem to be overpowering , but just gets the job done. Some one did a great job in teaching him how to pitch.

Weaver was a huge success when he was promoted in 2006, posting an 11-2 record with an ERA of 2.56 and WHIP of 1.033. Last year he had some injury issues but still posted a record of 13-7, although his ratios weren't as stellar and his K rate was down.

I'm banking on a healthy season and an improvement in last years numbers. Pitching for an excellent LAA team he should be able to notch 15 wins or so and be a solid third starter for my team.
73dror
      ID: 5283329
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:43
11.11 George Sherrill, RP, BAL
Sherrill is the 29th closer taken up untill now. The only team that is yet to have it's closer taken is Texas, witch is a complete mess and has no clear guy. So basicly, Sherrill was the last guy on the board to have sure save chances at the start of the season. The way I see it, the difference between 2 and 3 closers is huge. While staying with 2 probably means I'm in the middle of the pack, having 3 puts me in a great position for a top 3 finish in saves. In terms of category points (witch is eventually what we are playing for), I can't see any single player left on the board who can even come close to have such an effect.

Sherrill is a good pitcher. From what I have seen and read about him, he has both the stuff and the atitude to be a fine closer. The O's are gonna suck badly this year, but I can deffenetly see Sherrill saving 30 games with strong averages and plenty of K's.


for blue hen
11.12 Brad Penny, SP, LAD
In the 8th round, I noticed that there were a lot of starting pitchers available. I sorted through them and Brett Myers was at the top of my list. Suddenly, two closers went, and I saw a run coming and a short list of closers before a dropoff. Besides, there are so many pitchers around, one will HAVE to make it back to me, right? So I took Brad Lidge.

In retrospect, it's even better. I took Brad Penny, who isn't quite where Myers is but can definitely be an ace at any time. And I took him three rounds later, allowing me to get Lidge, and also Glaus and Hermida. I've had Penny on my teams a lot - he's usually hurt and I can get him late. I know this is an injury risk and he's my second starter, but I'm happy to have someone of this caliber before the draft gets too thin.

74Taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 19:48
11.13 Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR

I'm surprised Hill was still on the board 11 rounds into the draft and represents a higher value than other 11th round middle infielders. Hill is the Toronto version of Ian Kinsler, sans SB. Hill is 25 and thus hasn't reached his prime. He hit 17 homers last year in 600 AB (meaning he shows up each day and doesn't mail it in) generating a .459 SLG%. He will probably hit at the bottom of an impressive Toronto line-up and I look for him to produce 90 runs and 80 RBI's, single digit SB, a low, but acceptable .335 OBA and a big .470 SLG% as he hits 26 dingers.
75Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:00
11.14 ~ Ted Lilly, SP, CHC
Heading into the next two picks is sort of easy. I need starting pitching, and a shortstop. So I made a queue for each position, and picked away. My queue leading into this one was Weaver, Penny, Lilly … but the first two players got picked, so I’m left with Ted Lilly. Good strikeout numbers, reasonable ERA & WHIP, and a good chance for Ws pitching for the Cubbies.
76Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 425869
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:09
11.15 Edwin Encarnacion, 3b, Cin

I owned EE last year in a couple leagues and he really stunk it up early in the season. He actually raised his average from .219 from .289 once he got called back up. So, hopefully we see a consistent Encarnacion, and consistent as far as late last season, not early...
77JeffG
      Leader
      ID: 01584348
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:20
11.16 Ty Wigginton 2B/3B HOU

I kind of liked Ibanez or Cuddyer here, but I could not go too much longer this draft without at least filling one of my 2b or 3b slots soon. Wiggington is Yahoo eligible in both positions. He's not really an on-base guy and certainly not a steals guy, but has a little pop which will benefit with his new home ballpark in Houston. I like the roster flexibility I will have with Ty being both CI and MI eligible, especially depending on what dregs I have to get at the bottom of the barrel later on in the draft or when making roster moves during the year.


12.01 Joba Chamberlain RP NYY

Here in NY you can't escape the "Joba-mania" hype. He is definitely going to return to earth, but I drafted him expecting nothing more than a high-tier middle releiver who will yield a good K ratio and contribute favorably to the averages. The Yankees seem comitted to stick to their guns and limit him to 140 innings this season by starting him out in the set up role and later move him to the starting rotation. We'll see if it really plays out that way. Contrary to his unreasonable expectations, I know he is not the second coming, otherwise my rationale would look like this:

12.01 Joba Rules RP/SP

Joba stuff is redunkulous. Assuming he is not attacked again my midge-flies, I project 140IP 5 W, 5 sv, 0.30 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 420 K.
.
78Slackjawed Yokel
      ID: 425869
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:46
12.02 Ian Snell, SP, Pit

I decided I'd get a 3b and a starting pitcher this time through, so now it was time for a sp. Snell stuck out as I was looking through the available pitchers with his high strikeout numbers. His numbers were actually better last year than his w/l record might suggest, and he's still just 26 - so somewhat keeping with my strategy of trying to get guys with more upside and potential for having a breakout season.
79Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 20:56
12.03 ~ Julio Lugo, SS, BOS

I had a hard time choosing between Ryan Theriot (pick 12.05), Stephen Drew (pick 12.07), and Lugo. Theriot and Drew seem like good young players with upside … but I’m not convinced how far the upside goes. With Lugo … I think I know what to expect. As a Lugo owner in a couple leagues in 2007, I know that he pretty much stunk. I expect some of his batting average and power to return, and with his speed and the RedSox lineup, he’ll be good in SBs and runs.
80Taxman
      SuperDude
      ID: 029463114
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 21:17
12.04 Greg Maddux, SP, SD

In an effort to accumulate Wins without undue exposure of my WHIP and ERA, Maddux is a gift. He is not very sexy with maybe 120 K's, but he also doesn't walk anyone and he pitches half his games at spacious PETCO. Maddox has aged gracefully and continues to deliver within spitting distance ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 2.50 with double digit wins (between 12 and 15 the past 5 years). This year, with more offense behind him, I look for Maddux to deliver 15 Wins, 115 K's, a 4.00 ERA with a 2.30 WHIP.

81dror
      ID: 5283329
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 21:47
placeholder
12.05 Ryan Theriot, MI, CHC
I can't lie. I am counting on Ryan Theriot to help me win RIBC this season. Some picks, like Ryan Howard and Jake Peavy, were easy. Just take the best hitter and the best pitcher. Others were fairly straightforward. Need another starting pitcher, take Brad Penny.

With Theriot, it's more than that. At best, Theriot thrives, stealing 40 bases, with an OBP around .380, and even throws in some power. In the 12th round from a middle infielder, that can change a season. I knew I wanted Theriot on my team. It was just a matter of when I was going to draft him.

At this point, most of my starting players are picked. I am really just filling out my lineup. Most players picked will just help the cause along. But Theriot can change a season. And here's hoping he does.

82dror
      ID: 5283329
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 21:58
12.06 Jack Cust, OF, OAK
When I made my top secret list of late round value picks for this year and noticed that it was dominated by OFs, I decided that this is the position I feel the most comfortable waiting on and filling in the later rounds. Well, it's the 12th round, and it's finally time for my first OF.

Cust is one of the guys are targeted for my team all along. He has a terrific combination of on-base and power skills that fit this league well, and while the A's are not excatly an offensive powerhouse, as their everyday cleanup hitter he should have more then respectable Rs and RBIs. I can easily see him producing a Burrell-like .400/.500/90/100 line, only for a much lower cost.
83JL
      ID: 302241320
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 22:24
for Dave R
12.07 Stephen Drew, SS, Ari
There were alot of ways I considered going with this pick. I figured to try and grab a 3rd MI, targeting Theriot, but he was taken 2 picks earlier. Great pick Blue Hen.

How odd, Stephen taken ahead of big brother J.D. This pick is all about potential and upside. In his rookie season, albeit limited, Drew batted .316, and had an OPS of .874. Last year, however was a nightmare.

Drew is to talented not to turn things around this year. He has 20-25 HR potential and the base running ability to swipe 15 -20 bases. If he can get his OPS up over .800, this is a 12th round steal

84JL
      ID: 302241320
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 22:31
12.08 Phil Hughes, SP, NYY

I needed a starting pitcher and there weren't many attractive options available, so I went with the "tremendous upside potential" of Hughes. He's got great stuff. He's been one of baseball's most hyped prospects. He performed reasonably well last season. He's a starting pitcher on a team that should win 90+ games. This pick could turn out very well if Hughes has a breakout year.
86Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:05
for RoBoGuRu
12.09 Dustin McGowan, SP, Tor
For the third straight round I had Ryan Garko on top of my queue but based on the picks in front of me, couldn't pull the trigger. I decided to go SP4 here and take a high upside breakout candidate instead since, even if I don't get Garko next round(and I obviously didn't), I felt the drop off wasn't that great that I couldn't overcome it.

As long as McGowan's arm survives the increased innings, I like his chances of getting me something like 15W, 150K, 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

87Flying Polack
      Sustainer
      ID: 378582811
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:06
12.10 Jeremy Bonderman, P, Det
Like Milledge, Bonderman has been at the top of my draft board for a while. There have been 23 SP’s taken that are ranked lower than Bonderman. Unlike Milledge, I haven’t avoided Bonderman due to uncertainty. As a Tiger fan, I’ve planned on drafting him for a while. Looking at the other RIBC drafts, this is were I assumed I could safely take him and it worked out.

Most people think his 2007 season was a disappointment, he finished with a 5.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP after being drafted 5.04 in last year’s RIBC. Watching in him on a daily basis and looking at his split stats, I can see a different story. Jeremy’s numbers at the ASB last year were, 106 IP, 98K, 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. After the break he just fell apart and finished with a 7.38 ERA in 12 starts. He was clearly injured. Just watching him you could tell he was laboring more than usual. The Tigers shut him down in early September. Hopefully a full off-season healed him. All the reports out of camp are positive.

As long as he’s healthy, Bondo was a steal in the 12th round. Some people have even called him a future Hall-Of-Famer. I don’t know if I’ll go that far.
88Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:08
12.11 Ryan Garko, 1B, Cle
I almost took Garko in round 11, but thought he might slide to this round, and I also had a couple other firstbasemen in mind as alternatives. I still have a hole at 1B (although I could put Youkilis at 1B leaving my hole at 3B), and it’s time to fill it.

Garko is off to a good spring, and might start the year batting as high as 5th in the order, behind Hafner and VMart. That wouldn’t hurt. In any event, he’s 27 and coming off his first season of almost-everyday action, so I would expect continued improvement. Consensus projects have him at 72-87-.360-.490, and I think there is some upside potential there.

I thought about adding another pitcher here, but decided to keep my foot on the hitting pedal instead.
89StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:00
for Bash Brothers
12.12 Jonathan Broxton RP LAD
I've been eyeing him since 2007. In my AAA draft last year, I was targeting him at the same position (12.12) but was too late to grab him. So I am very happy I finally have him on my team. One of the best closer-in-waiting in the game, he has posted excellent ERA and WHIP for 2 consecutive years. And his K total might be better than quite a few SPs who pitch twice as many innings as he does. Oh well, he is just 23. With Saito's age and health concern, Broxton might take over his role any time soon and blossom into next K. Rod.

The downside of this pitch comes from the real world. As a Dodger fan, you want to see Broxton in the 8th and Saito in the 9th. That's nearly automatic "light out". To have Broxton assume the closer's role, there must be something wrong with Saito. That would be really really sad.

90StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:01
for coldwater coyotes
12.13 Willy Taveras OF COL
Up to this point I was clearly lacking speed and Taveras should give me 40+ SBs. Obviously he will hurt my SLG% but with the likes of Thome and Chipper on my team I can live with it.
91StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:02
for Uptown Bombers
12.14 Johnny Damon OF NYY
Certainly in the tail end of his career, but does he have one year left in him? I think so. I needed a third OF, and I was looking to add 20 steals. Last year Damon really struggled in SLG, but was actually good enough in the other stats, especially as my 3rd OF. I figure he will continue that at least and could possibly bounce back to a more respectable SLG. Best thing he has going for him is the switch to DH duty, part time at least. Hopefully that keeps him healthier than last year. The Yanks don’t have many options for leadoff, so Damon should produce numbers by default.
92StLCards
      Dude
      ID: 31010716
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:03
for StLCards
12.15 Billy Butler OF KAN
I was right in waiting to take my hitters as most of the guys I had in my queue were still available this round. On the other hand, it is somewhat disconcerting that no one wanted my players. I had this pick all lined up and was sure of what I was doing almost since my 11.02 pick. Then two picks before my turn the draft hit a delay and went into the overnight pause giving me way too much time to think about things. I had Beltre at the top of my queue and then was going to take either Ibanez or Butler in that order on my next pick. I also considered going with pitching and taking Harden and Betancourt. Projecting over the next two rounds though it seemed apparent that pitching was largely addressed by most teams in the last two rounds and now hitting would again be the priority. I thought about taking MI here as that will probably go in these rounds, but no one really jumps out at me.

Overnight I decided that Beltre wasn’t really a good value for what my needs were and that I really should work on the OF now while I have the opportunity. Butler qualifies at OF and should hit in a power spot. He got some seasoning last year so hopefully he has had time to adjust to big league pitching and won’t have a hole in his swing. I do expect some slumps over the season and I don’t like having two Royals on my team necessarily as it goes against what I like to do, but he has more upside than Ibanez does so I will take him and see what happens.

93Building 7
      ID: 48033121
      Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:45
12.16, Oliver Perez, SP, NYM

12 starting pitchers were selected since my last pick. I was hoping this guy would make it. K per inning, mid 3's ERA, 1.30 whip. Good offense, pitchers park, free agent next year. If he can only remember how to pitch well. Or how to pitch strikes. If he can repeat last year, that would be great.
94Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 11:37
Rationales for rounds 13-18
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