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Subject: H2H Recovery Project
Posted by: Great One
- [56438112] Thu, May 15, 2008, 13:30
Hey all... Slizz is aware of this one but thought I would share some with the group and see if I could get a little teamwork to help with this project.
If I make the playoffs here, I will make a guru donation in honor of it in exchange for some serious teamwork.
Alright... so a guy at work is in a league with a bunch of sales guys. Bunch of clowns who all talk smack and aren't very good really. He's been getting destroyed (14th out of 14) and just pummelled by the group (he's generally good at football, so they love piling on that he sucks at baseball...). This is the group of guys we all hate. Its "that guy" except there are like 10 of them.
So I have now joined the team and agreed to co-manage. Help the guy out. I've made about dozen moves already but thought I could brainstorm some here.
Here are the (ridiculous) categories. Also, its H2H, but you only go 1-0 or 0-1 each week. So he is 1-5 but really only 3 games out of a playoff spot.
Weekly Lineup freeze every Monday
Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL
Stat Categories:
R, 2B, HR, RBI, SB, FPCT, AVG, OBP, OPS
IP, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Ok, so the first think you'll notice is that there is unbalanced amount of categories with 3 extra categories for the hitters. There are 13 categories total, so winning 7 categories per week will get you a 1-0 record and that is the goal for each week.
IP is a category... (yes, why not make AB's a category! :) so it seems maximizing 2-start weeks is paramount and limiting closers is key. Also finding SP that qualify as RP is useful for the three RP spots.
Fielding Percentage is a category. So would a DH be a good pick here since they never make errors? or starting as many OF as possible since they make the least?
It seems to me that hitting a HR would positviely impact like 6 categories... so I should do everything I can to find as many HR's as possible.
Here is the team as of this past Monday's freeze.
Yadier Molina
Hinske
Kelly Johnson
Zimmerman
Jose Reyes
Yunesky
Alex Rios
Ken Griffey
Josh Hamilton
Hawpe
Votto
Bourn
Frank Thomas
Peavy
Verlander
Dempster
Lidge
Broxton
Acosta
Blackburn
Padilla
The DL spots were empty, so the first thing I wanted to do was add some injured guys into those instead of wasting those spots. Here are the moves I've made so far.
Dropped
Yunesky Betancourt
Acosta
Yadier Molina
Bourn
Blackburn
Broxton
Frank Thomas
Coco Crisp (added and dropped in 2 days)
Padilla
Shawn Chacon (added and dropped for Mussina)
Added
Phil Hughes (DL)
Dontrelle (DL)
Carlos Delgado
Saltalamacchia
Clint Barmes
Ian Kennedy
Johnny Cueto (waiver claim 1)
Eric Gagne (waiver claim 2)
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Mussina
So my help needed is really... what strategies should I employ? I added Arroyo/Moose because they did solid last night and have 2-start week next week. It appears if I throw out a bunch of 2-start guys I should win IP, W's and K's so I'd break even in pitching. So to me having Peavy is a waste and I should try and move him for a power hitter.
Which guys should I target? the biggest underachievers? Ryan Howard and Hafner seem like a couple of sluggers who would be good fits. But I am beginning to doubt Hafner is ever gonna be good again. Reyes, Peavy, Verlander seem like my best trade bait to get some of these guys.
These owners seem to be married to their players and nobody wants to trade without robbing you, so I'm gonna have to overpay to get anything done.
Also, does anyone know a site with H2H weekly previews in advance? I know Rotoworld does it every Monday with all the 2-start pitchers and hitting matchups but according the league I think this freezes overnight Sunday/Monday (which I don't understand). I've pretty much figured out if you pitch on Wednesday you should have 2 starts the following week. Although I don't think Daniel Cabrera will and he was available... I was considering him. Unless he pitches on 5 days regardless of days off in between. Anyone with insider Baltimore knowledge? |
| 1 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 15, 2008, 13:34
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Tentative Lineup for this Monday.
Starting Lineup
Saltalamacchia
Delgado
Kelly Johnson
Zimmerman
Reyes
Votto
Hamilton
Hawpe
Rios
Hinske
Bench
Barmes
Ken, Jr.
Pitching
Peavy
Verlander
Arroyo
Mussina
Dempster
Lidge
Gagne
Cueto
Bench
Kennedy
Dontrelle DL
Phil Hughes DL
The top 4 starters all have 2 starts, so that should lock up IP and likely K's, W's.
Opponent next week has no SB guys... so Reyes should handle that by himself.
Do I start Barmes over Hinske or Kelly Johnson?
He also has no closers so I'm considering going with Lidge only - then benching Gagne and finding another starter who is RP/SP.
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| 2 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 15, 2008, 14:24
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Weekly Preview on Fox
This guy seems to have a decent preview and puts it out on Friday's. Seems like that'll be useful.
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| 3 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, May 15, 2008, 14:50
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Is there a limit on the number of moves you can make in a week or in the year? If not, then you need to rotate a slot or two with pitching. The other teams will not want to rotate since that would mean having to cut someone (and it seems they don't want to do that) so that gets you wins, k's, IP right there. You can also use starters in RP slots if you need to if you can find some.
By rotating you can keep a minimum number of pitchers and load up on hitters. Make sure to cover every position every day, or at least as best you can. R, 2B, SB, HR, RBI should all go up with more games played.
Then all you have to do is win some of the other categories of pitching and hitting. I would also keep a daily total of how you are doing. If you are sunk in one category, put in hitters that will get you another one, etc.
Good luck
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| 4 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, May 15, 2008, 14:52
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oops, I see there is a weekly line-up freeze so rotating pitchers obviously won't work. Should have read closer before I posted.
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| 5 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 15, 2008, 14:56
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No max moves -- but you are frozen for the week. So yeah, you are spot on I want to rotate a couple 2-start pitchers in the bottom spots. It would just be week to week rotating, not day to day.
Also would start a hitter with 7 games instead of 1 with a day off. I think.
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| 6 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 15, 2008, 15:03
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I'm trying to make a list of guys I reasonably think could be traded for using Peavy or Reyes (or Verlander on a smaller level).
So I am looking at draft results and starting middle second round... thinking these guys they have less attachment to. And they need to hit HR's and have good OPS. Preference to SS/2B with some pop cause Kelly Johnson and Reyes is just weak there. If I could add two of the below names, I'd call that a success.
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Lee
Teixeria
Vlad
Brandon Phillips
Upton
Derrek Lee
Atkins
Aramis
Dunn (this league seems perfect for him)
Abreu
Hafner
Kinsler
Burrell
Would have fit, but too hot of a start.
Berkman, Chipper
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| 7 | Great One
ID: 2241519
Thu, May 15, 2008, 18:51
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Thoughts on Eric Byrnes? He's on waivers til tomorrow morning... do I throw a claim in (I'm last in priority now anyway)? Has he hit rock bottom and should come around or was last year the aberration?
Ian Kennedy looks droppable again. Either him or Hinske.
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| 8 | Building 7
ID: 174591519
Thu, May 15, 2008, 22:12
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A 1B gets a lot of chances and does not make a lot of errors. Load up on them. Or get a guy who really plays 1B, but is rated elsewhere. i.e. Guillen ss or Berkman OF.
If he has no closers, does he have all starters? Do you have more projected starts?
It's hard to tell things without seeing who else is on waivers.
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| 9 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Fri, May 16, 2008, 08:41
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I forgot about that... so a 1B gets a "chance" every time they get a throw from another player? so one error from them would hardly make an impact.
This makes a guy like Youkilis even more valuable (plus this is an OBP league and he is "The Greek God of Walks"). And yeah, finding 1B and OF now seems like a target.
Yeah, the other team has 3 middle relievers in his RP spots - the best of which is Okajima. To me, middle relievers are a complete waste in this format. I don't see how their 2-3 IP are helping at all.. in fact, if they get hit it will hurt and you are missing out on potential IP if I had a RP/SP eligible guy in that spot. I could get 10 more IP from say 2-start Dempster in a RP/SP spot than trotting out Broxton or whoever.
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| 10 | Great One
ID: 2241519
Sun, May 18, 2008, 16:02
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I got an offer of Eric Byrnes (from the guy that got his successful claim earlier this week) for Ryan Dempster.
Dempsters biggest advantage is RP/SP eligiblity so I can max IP from the RP spots.
Byrnes I think could snap out of his slump soon...
I am dying for some more pop in this lineup. Do I do it? Is Dempster this good? Is Byrnes as bad he's been playing?
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| 11 | Great One
ID: 2241519
Sun, May 18, 2008, 20:21
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He cancelled the Byrnes offer... that sucks, think I was ready to do it.
Now trying to decide on Salty or dropping him for Ianetta. Thoughts on those two? Gotta decide tonight.
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| 12 | Kyle
Donor
ID: 052753312
Mon, May 19, 2008, 11:44
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Youk would be perfect for this league, and if it's a Yahoo! league then he'd be 3rd base eligible too. 3 bagger with a lot of chances and few errors is golden. You could probably get Youk for Bonderman and maybe be able to squeeze a little more out of him depending on this managers knowledge.
Strange formats are fun to me since I am sick of seeing the prototype 5x5. Sounds like you have an interesting
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| 13 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Mon, May 19, 2008, 11:51
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Youkilis doesn't make any errors and gets lots of chances, so certainly that would be sweet. Plus all the walks and XBH's.
Nobody seems to want to trade anyone away that hits HR's so I am considering a focus on 2B's which will still help several categories.
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| 14 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, May 19, 2008, 18:23
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Might be tough to trade Peavy now. Hopefully he comes out of this elbow thing pain free.
How did last week go? It's really hard to offer any suggestions not knowing who is a free agent, who the other guy has, etc.
Sounds like you have it under pretty good control. I'd probably put Barmes in the lineup since he's so hot. Is a guy like Ludwick available? Guys like him are kinda tough though since they aren't everyday players.
Some of the players like Zimmerman, Hawpe, and Rios just have to come around if you are going to have any chance.
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| 15 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, May 21, 2008, 15:51
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I got Barmes in there and thats given me a spark this week so far. Also got Peavy out of the lineup for the week and started Dempster there.
I added Chase Headley and let Gagne go... most teams only have 1 decent closer, so i think just having Lidge will help me split Saves for the most part. Hopefully Headley comes up in the next week or so. 3B eligible playing the OF would be ideal, cause he'll have very few errors for that stupid FTPCT category.
I really need to brainstorm more guys that play 1B every day but I can start at other positions. Or OF's that I can play at SS/2B/3B for the same reasoning.
You are right, I feel like my hands are tied right now with Zimmerman, Hawpe, Rios, Peavy and Verlander since all their trade values are so low. I do think it might be time to move Josh Hamilton while his value his high and try to lock into someone I know should rebound (Howard, Prince... or in a package where Cano is thrown in etc -- the guy who has Cano also has Markakis and Swisher and I like all 3).
At the end of each week I'll throw out some names of the available talent I'm considering and who is on my "available to cut list" and hopefully get some opinions on add/drops.
I did add Jason Werth after his big night and then Charlie said he was the starter... and I know he can't hit RHP... but hopefully this situation resolves itself or they get some more LHP matchups in my favor. After he didn't play Monday I was pissed i started him over Hawpe, but Hawpe's been m.i.a. anyway so it hasn't mattered.
Frank Thomas was let go and I kind of wish I had him back now.
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| 16 | Great One
ID: 2241519
Wed, May 21, 2008, 21:12
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Got a deal done... traded Verlander for Bobby Abreu. Very happy with this deal.
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| 17 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 22, 2008, 09:58
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Does anyone think I am at a point where I could drop Hawpe?
With an OF of Hamilton, Abreu, Rios, Votto I am loaded on OF's. Also soon gonna have 3B/OF Headley (hopefully).
So either Hawpe or Jason Werth (was it just an aberration? I know he can't hit RHP, but even so he's ranked #59 overall this season). Delgado is on the chopping block too I guess.
Any Phillies fans with some insight?
Also added Blaylock this morning. He fits the mold above... if he's switching to 1B then his FPCT should go up based on the amount of chances per game, but I can play him at 3B which will be sweet.
I am short a pitcher now after the Verlander/Abreu deal and Dontrelle/Blaylock move -- so I have til Sunday to drop a hitter and add a pitcher (shooting for Colon with a 2 start week, via waivers).
Other pitching options are
Garza
Chacon (2-start week vs. STL, MIL)
Rasner (2-start vs. BAL, MIN)
Colon (waivers, 2-start, SEA, BAL)
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| 18 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, May 22, 2008, 10:01
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Oh yeah... I am winning this week at the moment 10-5.
We are in dead last and beating the 1st place team so hopefully we can hold on. Its pretty important to not fall to 1-7.
Been lucky this week after disasters from Mussina who avoided 6 ER because of Jeter's error... Cueto avoided 2 ER cause of his own error... Blackburn avoided 6 ER because of an error in that big inning last night.
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| 19 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, May 22, 2008, 10:46
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I'm not sure I would drop Hawpe just yet. He should be able to find his stroke and as the weather warms up you would expect he could turn things around quickly. I don't know much about Werth but he would be one I'd think about letting go when he slows down.
I can't say that I'm a big Colon fan now. He would be a big unknown at this point. His past comeback attempts haven't gone well. Then again, if you wait and he does have success then you likely won't be able to get him at that point.
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| 20 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Tue, Jun 10, 2008, 16:21
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I've traded Josh Hamilton for Ryan Braun here...
And part of the theory being, I need the extra IF eligble player and also Braun provides an OF fielding percentage at the 3B position (no errors all season).
Zimmerman going down and being a big quesiton mark makes adding the flexibility of a 3B/OF paramount. Hopefully Braun can hang with Josh Hamilton in the hitting categories. And I guess I am hoping I sold high on Hamilton. He can't possibly keep it up all season, can he?
Also, Chris Young (SD, SP) is a free agent... should I pick him up and stash him away? Any locals (goatlocker?) with an idea of when he'll return to the mound? I've been waiting out Hawpe and scooped up Byrnes afterall... so hopefully these injury problems are working themselves out. Would have too many OF anyway to squeeze into the lineup.
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| 21 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Tue, Jun 10, 2008, 16:30
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I can't imagine that ALL those guys are going to rebound. Imagine suddenly Hawpe, Zimmerman, Abreu all play at their max. But I'd definitely find a way to get Chris Young. If I said he was "going to be one of the best in baseball in August and September" you wouldn't try to buy my crack.
Hamilton for Braun is a fantastic deal and I like Verlander for Abreu as well. Those are the moves that will separate you from the pretenders.
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| 22 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jun 11, 2008, 09:40
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Guys I have hoping they rebound...
Peavy, Delgado, Hawpe, Zimmerman, Byrnes, Abreu, Rios, Kelly Johnson (to a lesser extent, more like I hope he gets really hot).
Ok, that said. Being realistic I am hoping maybe 3 of these guys start to kick it up a notch and then I've got something.
Here are a couple free agent pitcher names that could fall in the same category.
Oliver Perez
Andrew Miller (not a rebound, but I think he has potential, also has 2 starts next week, so I'm getting him for those).
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| 23 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jun 11, 2008, 09:41
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I meant to say Abreu specifically "to a lesser extent". And Johnson/Rios too. They've been ok. But I could use more out of them as well.
I'm wondering if targeting the injured Weeks would be a good idea.
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| 24 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, Jun 12, 2008, 14:32
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Using that "OF error totals at an IF position" strategy... I'm thinking of targeting BJ Upton. Perhaps using a healthy Peavy next week.
Gonna make this offer.
Kelly Johnson + Peavy
for
BJ Upton + Wainwright
I think Wainwright is only out a few weeks, so I expect to stash him til the ASB and I think he'd be a very good return in this balanced deal for Kelly Johnson. Anyone else care to analyze this trade? I think its good enough to get them to bite. Again, my valuing of SP in this league is very low... its all about maxing out hitters then just throwing decent innings-eaters from my SP.
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| 25 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, Jun 12, 2008, 14:42
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And no, these guys don't see it the same way... they don't even use their DL spots! so believe me they are thinking too deeply about the strategy.
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| 26 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Thu, Jun 12, 2008, 19:05
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That looks like an ok move to me. The other guy will probably jump at it. It addresses your need in post 6 anyway.
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| 27 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Fri, Jun 13, 2008, 10:54
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Its become apparent to me the guy is a White Sox fan based on the number of current and former White Sox on his team... so I am hoping to exploit that a bit by adding Contreras and the injured Zimmerman to this to try and pry Burrell from him. He's currently starting Bill Hall at 3B, so adding Zimmerman at a low price would be wise for him. He also has too many OF with Ibanez and Franceour on the bench.
BJ Upton
Pat Burrell
Wakefield
Wainwright DL
Kelly Johnson
Zimmerman DL
Contreras
Peavy
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| 28 | Building 7
ID: 174591519
Fri, Jun 13, 2008, 23:49
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Peavy and O Perez just had good starts. I would do that trade.
C. Young may be out awhile. The last I heard he may need surgery for a bone in his face. That was a week ago.
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| 29 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 12:22
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The above trade never responded... sets his lineup but doesn't seem to pay attention to trades.
This team is on a 5 game winning streak, up to 7-8 with 7 weeks left and 1.5 games from a playoff spot.
I DID move Peavy though and am happy to finally have a stud 1B. traded...
Brad Hawpe + Jake Peavy
for
Derrek Lee + John Maine
I'm content with John Maine as a decent SP replacement as well. Had too many OF, so turning Hawpe into a topflight 1B after Hawpe came back off injury and hit a few HR's seemed like a good move to me.
Current squad which is markedly better than the one I took over... picking up injured guys like Doumit, Blalock and Chris Young could pay dividends.
C Ryan Doumit
1B Derrek Lee
2B Kelly Johnson
SS Jose Reyes
3B Ryan Braun
IF Joey Votto or Carlos Delgado
OF Bobby Abreu
OF Alex Rios
OF Headley
UT Chris Davis
Bench - Blaylock, Billy Butler and DL=Zimmerman
Pitching
(remember, its all about maximizing starts, so each week I cut a couple and pick up 2-start guys. I'm not really married to anyone here)
John Maine
Hiroki Kuroda
Mike Mussina
Mike Pelfrey
Ubaldo Jimenez
RP/SP Dempster
RP/SP Blackburn
Brad Lidge
DL = Chris Young
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| 30 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Jul 16, 2008, 17:40
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You've done a good job here, although I bet you could have gotten more from Peavy.
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| 31 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, Jul 17, 2008, 16:13
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Yeah, but I've been shopping him forever and nobody wants him.
So in my eyes I traded him for Derrek Lee - and in a league where great pitchers don't really matter all that much and power is at a GREAT premium, think I did good there.
So then the other side is Hawpe for Maine, which is alright, certainly rather have Hawpe right now with him warming up, but I am just about out of hitter spots anyway. But any starter with 2-starts is more valuable than 1 start from Peavy, so that means if I just rotate that spot from week to week I can get similar value from my bottom two pitching slots and always at least split the pitching categories.
I'm considering trading Lidge now for another power bat and just punting saves altogether.
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| 32 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 11:02
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Anyone with insight on how long Ian Stewart will be up this time? Is Helton just out this week or could this be a lingering thing? I'm trying to figure if I should outright drop Kelly Johnson for Ian Stewart.
Its slim pickings for 2B in a 16 team league though, so if Ian Stewart doesn't play everyday (say Helton returns next week) it wouldn't be worth the risk.
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| 33 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 12:21
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I can't say that I'd rather have Stewart than Johnson right now. Even if Stewart plays, he's still been pretty inconsistent. At least with Johnson, you're getting solid production.
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| 34 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 12:54
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Thats the thing, he's NOT producing... unfortunately.
Since June 1st (a nearly 2 month sample) - 2 HR's, .222 AVG, and only 13 RBI's.
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| 35 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 16:03
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I dropped Chase Headley and 2-start flavor of the week Bergman... added Contreras (best available DL player) to slide him into my DL spot swapping with now active Ryan Zimmerman. Then with the empty spot I added Ian Stewart.
Pretty happy with that series of moves.
Kelly Johnson to the bench for a bit, start Stewart for a few weeks while he's hot. I can't afford 0 production from anywhere in the lineup with only 6 weeks left in the regular season and trailing the last playoff spot by 2 big games.
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| 36 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 16:08
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Yeah, keeping Johnson seems right. Really, Contreras? There HAS to be somebody better.
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| 37 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 16:09
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That makes sense to me. When Helton is ready they will almost certainly put him back at 1B since he is by far the best 1B defensively on the team. That means that Atkins goes back to 3B. SInce Tulo is now back, that leaves Stewart battling with Baker and Barmes for playing time at 2B. Baker has started to heat up too, so hard to know how much PT Stewart will have later on. He's certainly playing now though and tearing it up.
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| 38 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 16:32
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Frank Thomas or Eric Byrnes or Contreras... best of the DL bunch. And Wang or Furcal but I don't think they'll help me next 6 weeks.
Contreras should be back next week sometime. He was really good this year until last 4 starts... hopefully something inbetween really good and the last 4 starts would be useful.
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| 39 | StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 16:41
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Byrnes, Wang, and Furcal seem like long shots to even play again this year. Thomas will likely step right in to an everday spot in the middle of the order whenever he is healthy enough.
Don't know about Contreras, but not sure he would be worth playing even if he were healthy.
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| 40 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 17:04
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Yeah I'd rather have Thomas than Contreras.
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| 41 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Wed, Jul 23, 2008, 17:26
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Think what I saw last nite on Helton when I was researching Stewart for TSN, was still a good month plus away.
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| 42 | Great One
ID: 56438112
Thu, Jul 24, 2008, 15:18
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That would be REALLY good news. Stewart could be a big 2B option the next month then which is the most important for me.
Thing is, I can't even play Frank - (good problem I guess) cause he can only play in the UT spot and I already have Chris Davis or Delgado (and/or Zimmerman) for that and the IF spot. Derrek Lee bumped them out of the 1B spot. I have been shopping all these guys for a big 2B upgrade with no bites (i.e. D-Lee and Kelly for Brandon Phillips to a guy starting Aurilla in his IF spot... said he isn't interested in changing his team! lol...)
Here is the debate of the day... do I cut Pelfrey loose to add Kuroda for 2 starts at home vs. SF and AZ. I'll need to do it today before its obvious that Kuroda is getting 2 starts next week to the rest of the league.
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