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Subject: Red Sox or Rays?
Posted by: Greg
- [58811710] Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 11:10
I'm technically a Braves fan, but they've been having such poor seasons, I have to look elsewhere....
I'm really fascinated by the Red Sox/Rays showdown. Who do you think will end up in first place? I think the Sox will have another great comeback, like they did in the 2004 postseason (which, by the way, there's a great Rick Rush painting depicting that historic moment). |
| 1 | Perm Dude
ID: 3084178
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 11:36
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Man, I sure hope it is TB. I'm not a fan, but I'm just tired of the Sox fans. They are just like Yankees fans, but with many fewer rings.
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| 2 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 45657107
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 12:51
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RE: #1, I couldn't agree more. We have a few around where I work and it's amazing how similar the two team's fans are.
Looking at some stats...
TAM: 5 Home, 7 Away remaining games
BOS: 4 Home, 7 Away remaining games
I'll call this a push.
TAM: 690 R, 3.78 ERA
BOS: 799 R, 3.92 ERA
Obviously, BOS has the more explosive offense and the pitching is comparable. Slight edge to BOS.
TAM: vMIN (1-1) x 4, @BAL (11-3) x 4, @DET (3-0) x 4
BOS: @TOR x 3 (7-8), vCLE x 4 (2-0), vNYY x 3 (8-7)
This is what it really boils down to for me. BOS definitely has a tough road to close out the season.
I could see TAM winning the last one against BOS, taking 2 of 4 against MIN, 3 of 4 in BAL and 2 of 4 in DET. That pushes them to 97 wins.
I think BOS will take 1 of 3 against TOR, 3 of 4 from CLE, and 2 of 3 from NYY. That gives them 95 wins, which should be more than enough for the Wild Card.
TAM by 2 games.
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| 3 | dpr
ID: 13443116
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 12:58
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Either way the Angels are looking at a tough first round matchup
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| 4 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 14:10
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Who cares? They both make the playoffs.
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| 5 | barilko6
ID: 4681210
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 14:14
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They both make the playoffs...true...but would you rather face LAA or CWS???
Put me down for the White Sox.
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| 6 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 14:32
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Not enough to risk injury or put my best starters in.
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| 7 | barilko6
ID: 4681210
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 14:37
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True...but I think the original post was more about who to root for than how to set up and protect a rotation.
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| 8 | Perm Dude
ID: 3084178
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 14:38
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I disagree. There is more than just bragging rights--there is a lot of money involved in winning the division, and an easier first round.
Remember, the Red Sox have a manger who didn't mind putting in Scott Kazmir in a meaningless ASG. He's going to go for it until the team is in or out.
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| 9 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 15:26
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This is much different than an All-Star Game.
Can you fill me in on how the payouts differ between Wild Card and division winners?
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| 10 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 15:36
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more home games
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| 11 | Perm Dude
ID: 3084178
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 15:38
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The payout pool gets money from the required games in each series. Everything else is gravy for the home teams. So the difference in being a division winner and a wild card could mean extra games which are not split with the player's payouts (plus all the other stuff like parking, concessions, merchandise, etc for sold out game(s).
Plus the obvious point (made above) that playing against the White Sox is an easier road than the Angels.
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| 12 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 15:47
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As far as who a Braves fan should root for, please don't jump on the Red Sox 'Nation' Bandwagon. The Sawx have a good group of core fans, and have a group of guys easy to root for, but any out of towner joining their ranks now reaks of pure band wagon jumping.
If you have to pick a team to root for, how can it not be the Rays? What a story. If they were to somehow go all the way, they would be the most improbable WS Champion ever (other than the 1969 Miracle Mets). Plus if they win the division, they have the added bonus of having beat out the two divisional money and media super powers, the Yankees and Red Sox.
Then for an added WS story line if they beat the Cubs in the WS this year, they'd be taking out former 'Devil Rays' manager Lou Piniella. If they beat the Mets in the WS, you have the old Kazmir trade story lines just eating away at Met fans. (sure there are other great potentisal WS Storyliness - two potential intra-city matchups in LA or Chicago, or a possible LA with Manny, Nomar, and Torre vs Boston possibility, and so on).
Sure the Rays in the WS are not what the broadcasters are hoping for (with big market, big ratings teams from LA, Chicago and Boston also competing for the AL pennant), but we may be witnessing a pennant run for the ages.
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| 13 | Donkey Hunter
ID: 176121816
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 15:54
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How about rooting against the Rays to save MLB the embarassment of only having 18,000 at first round playoff games.
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| 14 | C1-NRB
ID: 588421510
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 16:00
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How about rooting for the Rays to give MLB the embarassment of only having 18,000 at first round playoff games.
Bud Selig is the worst commissioner in sports ever.
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| 15 | Donkey Hunter
ID: 176121816
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 16:12
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Bud Selig is the worst commissioner in sports ever.
You apparently are not aware of the current NHL commissioner. Or the league has sunk so low you no longer consider it a sport.
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| 16 | C1-NRB
ID: 588421510
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 16:20
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Bud Selig is best summed up by his 11th inning All Star game shrug in 2002.
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| 17 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 17:26
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but would you rather face LAA or CWS???
What the hell are you talking about? The Twins are winning the Central and NOBODY wants to face the Twins!
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| 18 | Kyle
Donor
ID: 052753312
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 17:56
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SZ, you obviously didn't read Guru's daily blurb: "I hadn’t realized it, but Nathan hasn’t actually been that solid of late. In fact, his last save was on August 27th, and his last seven appearances have produced two losses and three blown saves." The Mets aren't going to win their division due to their bullpen woes and I think the Twins even more reliant on their bullpen. If Nathan continues to implode then the Twins will remain 2-3 games back of the White Sox and will miss the playoff. Granted this is coming from a Sox fan who is holding out hope that our bullpen will turn it around. It's not talked about but other than Bobby Jenks, our bullpen has been as lackluster if not worse than the Mets. I still think the Sox win the Central and the Rays will probably beat us in round 1.
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| 19 | holt
ID: 208301517
Wed, Sep 17, 2008, 19:50
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The Cardinals are done, and I decided months ago that if the Rays could hang around I'd pull for em 100%. Haven't gotten around to ordering a Rays cap off ebay yet but it's on my list of things to do.
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| 20 | filthy
ID: 388531216
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 07:29
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Not so much of a weak draw these days.
The Angels drew the same amount for a midweek August series as they did for a weekend May series.
The Orioles August weekend series almost hit a 30,000 average vs a 16,000 April weekend and a 20,000 May weekend.
The Jays series managed to even hit 13,000 on a midweeker in August after their April series fell short of 9,000.
The bandwagon is starting to gain speed. Will definitely be fans watching live in the playoffs. And could be an interesting attention grab on tv for casual fans.
Attendance figures:
Midweek series:
vs Bos Sep: 32,633 avg
vs Nyy Sep: 24,308 avg
vs Tor Aug: 13,398 avg
vs Laa Aug: 16,985 avg
vs Cle Aug: 21,548 avg
vs Oak Jul: 17,555 avg
vs Bos Jul: 33,768 avg
vs Chc Jun: 32,515 avg
vs Tex May: 11,204 avg
vs Nyy May: 17,851 avg (4 games)
vs Tor Apr: -8,933 avg
vs Nyy Apr: 19,897 avg (2 games)
vs Sea Apr: 20,017 avg (Home Opener)
Weekend series:
vs Bal Aug: 29,541 avg
vs Det Aug: 31,963
vs Tor Jul: 25,804
vs Kan Jul: 21,032 (4 games)
vs Hou Jun: 21,491
vs Fla Jun: 26,464
vs Cws May: 22,020 (4 games)
vs Bal May: 20,614
vs Laa May: 16,854
vs Bos Apr: 32,900
vs Cws Apr: 15,735
vs Bal Apr: 16,063
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| 21 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 45657107
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 09:04
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Let's not forget that TAM has sucked (SUCKED!) in years past. It's hard to build a fan base when you have nothing to cheer about. I don't know why people think that one winning season would suddenly turn that apathy into huge excitement for everyone.
For the actual fans? Of course. For the casual fans? Maybe. For the people who barely follow baseball? Not likely.
The fact is that most people living in St. Pete probably don't even think about going to a baseball game when they think about things to do when going out because of the team's history.
A few winning seasons will likely change that. Winning fixes everything.
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| 22 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 10:31
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Like the other team in Florida? Sure seems like winning fixed things there...
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| 23 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 45657107
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 11:19
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bh, surely you have a better example than that. The Marlins just prove my point. They've had 4 winning seasons (not including this year) out of 15. Not exactly a "winning team."
Plus, every time they win the WS, they sell off the entire team to ensure mediocrity for future seasons.
As I said: "I don't know why people think that one winning season would suddenly turn that apathy into huge excitement for everyone."
In other words, a team needs sustained winning (or a VERY long history) to create a die hard fan base. One season won't do it, nor will 4 out of 15. It's going to take much more than that.
The best example might be the Mets. 1969 generated buzz and they followed that up with decent seasons through 1976. Then there were the Torre Years and that was followed by high-win seasons for the last half of the 1980s and then some. Another few years off, but a return in the late 1990s and early 2000s and now fans are to the point that 2nd place and 90 wins just isn't good enough.
The NYM have 22 winning seasons out of 47 years. That's 46.8% compared to FLA's 26.7%.
And the Mets also have 6 seasons of 95+ wins compared to FLA's 0.
If we count back-to-back winning seasons as 0, the average time span between winning seasons, including this season is:
NYM: 1.0 seasons
FLA: 2.2 seasons
The phrase, "There's always next year" is actually applicable for NYM fans. It's not for FLA fans... nor TAM fans.
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| 24 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 11:23
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The 2004 Braves, on the verge of their 13th straight division title, filled 58.7 percent of their stadium, 22nd in baseball.
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| 25 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 45657107
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 12:10
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I see you took the care to sort by PCT instead of AVG. By AVG, they were 16th. Not great, but certainly not 22nd.
Can't blame the fans for ownership building too big of a stadium.
Besides, there are exceptions to every rule if you take a small enough slice of history. Every team in the Top 10 by AVG had a winning season... except SEA (10).
But, if you look at more than just 2004, you'll see that their AVG for 2004 was mostly a result of what happened in 2000-2003. Their AVG dropped in 2005 after a losing season in 2004.
Try dividing AVG by number of wins. It reveals a lot. From there, look to the past to see that winning definitely matters (as in ARI and SEA from their recent past to 2004).
You can't take a single slice of history and prove a point that's based on a larger amount of history.
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| 26 | barilko6
ID: 4681210
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 12:15
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Damn...do you ever think that Blue Hen just fires out these ridiculous comments and stats, and then collects all of our repsonses and rebuttle stats and starts spouting them off at his work to look really smart? :)
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| 27 | Kyle
Donor
ID: 052753312
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 12:20
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If the White Sox and Rays meet in round 1 I know I'll be looking for cheap tickets, hotel, and airfare to St. Petersburg. I am sure there will be tickets available much like the '03 Braves-Cubs series.
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| 28 | Razor
ID: 545172413
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 12:34
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There is absolutely no doubt that attendance is correlated with winning.
As for the Braves, they are a special circumstance. Atlanta developed a lot of fan apathy after they kept reaching the playoffs and kept losing once they got there. Fans got bored of the regular season and just bided time until the playoffs when the first interesting action, to them, happened.
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| 29 | Great One
ID: 78231812
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 13:23
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Don't you think they would then at least sell out the playoff games though? When you can't sell out a playoff game... there is something wrong there.
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| 30 | Razor
ID: 545172413
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 15:21
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People got bored with NLDS games, too. Atlanta fans really only perked up once they got to the NLCS. Anything else was a failure.
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| 31 | blue hen
ID: 30311814
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 15:41
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The NLDS is one of the worst things to happen to baseball in a long time.
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| 32 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Sep 18, 2008, 16:14
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Another problem with ATL sports...soooooo many people in this city are not actually from here. Like me, I'm from NY, live in the ATL and only the Thrashers have won me over. Other than that I still root for NY teams, and utterly dispise the Braves. Except for tonight, where I'll be rooting hard core for the Braves...who are 6-1 in games I've been to this year :( (6 Mets games, 1 Phillies game) ughhhh
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| 33 | Donkey Hunter
Leader
ID: 916288962
Sat, Sep 20, 2008, 16:37
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Speaking of the Rays, something is wrong with my tv. They are on Fox today. For those of you watching a Rays game for the first time today. Do not call the cable company, your HD is working fine. The field really is that color.
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| 34 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Sun, Sep 21, 2008, 09:40
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@Donkey - ROFL That was good.
Back on topic, it certainly looks as if the Rays are going to win the division at this point. They stumbled at the beginning of the month a bit but have recovered quite nicely. Taking 2 out of 3 against Boston the other week (to me) pretty much sealed the deal.
But, as much as I'd love to see Boston win the division, I kind of have the best of both worlds. Boston will still be in the playoffs (most likely again as the wild card) so I don't have to feel bad about cheering for the Rays who are just an exciting young team and a great story to watch.
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| 35 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 45657107
Mon, Sep 29, 2008, 15:14
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Last Sunday Game in 2008 Attendance (MIN): 36,048
Last Sunday Game in 2007 Attendance (BOS): 30,310
Last Sunday Game in 2006 Attendance (NYY): 31,422
Last Sunday Game in 2005 Attendance (TOR): 10,590
Had the 2006 and 2007 games been against other teams, they surely would have had far less than 30,000 fans. That they got 36,000 against MIN shows TAM is drawing in fans this year.
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| 36 | holt
ID: 29862517
Mon, Sep 29, 2008, 19:40
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GO RAYS!
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