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Subject: 2008-09 offseason thread
Posted by: blue hen
- [299161612] Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 13:22
The Royals have acquired Mike Jacobs for pitcher Leo Nunez. |
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| 200 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 13:59
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Blue Jays not picked to win AL East. At least the O's and Rays got one state each.
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| 201 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 59052613
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 14:58
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When playing and not injured I would take Bradley over Ibanez or Burrell every time...
Better slugging...better OB%...the obvious problem is he is oft injured and has some anger issues.
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| 202 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 16:55
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Is Ibanez better than Milton Bradley? To me, they're about the same, and Burrell is better than either one. Am I missing something?
Seriously? Do we have to answer that? Ok, I will...
Last 3 seasons:
Burrell 456 games, .254AVG, 92HR, 231R, 278RBI
Ibanez 470 games, .291AVG, 77HR, 268R, 338RBI (on a crap team)
Bradley 283 games, .302AVG, 49HR, 168R, 166RBI
When healthy, I'd take Bradley, then Ibanez, then I don't think I'd even want Burrell
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| 203 | wiggs
Sustainer
ID: 04991311
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:03
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Pettite rejects Yankees Offer
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| 204 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:19
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J, you're one of the smartest people I know.
Can you repost that chart with important stats instead of those stats? It seems like you made your decision based on batting average.
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| 205 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:20
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I'd take Pettitte but I doubt the Phils offer more than 10 mil.
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| 206 | Seattle Zen
ID: 58023616
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:24
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Can you repost that chart with important stats instead of those stats?
No, he listed the most important stat of all:
Ibanez 470 games
Burrell 456 games
Bradley 283 games
Fine China is beautiful, expensive, and very fragile.
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| 207 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 17:43
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sorry, at work, don't have access to everything. I wish I could've listed strikeouts!!! Besides a wide margin in average, Ibanez also has plenty more Runs and RBI than Burrell.
If you project out Bradley's numbers to 450 games, he'd have 78HR, 267Runs, 264RBI.
So, I think it sounds like you're the one basing your argument on one stat...homers???
I'm also basing my conclusion somewhat on the facts that he went to college at Miami and has a reputation of being a Met killer.
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| 208 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 18:11
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If you project out your height, it's 5'9. But you really have to project.
How about on-base percentage? Have you ever heard of that stat? And believe it or not, Burrell actually beats Ibanez in many defensive metrics.
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| 209 | Seattle Zen
ID: 32035622
Tue, Jan 06, 2009, 23:40
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Burrell actually beats Ibanez in many defensive metrics.
Well, that's like saying that the Gaza Strip actually beats Somalia in Gross Domestic Product per citizen.
Pat Burrell, the Gaza Strip of outfield defense!
link
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| 210 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 344311322
Wed, Jan 07, 2009, 00:19
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3 yr averages:
Bradley: age 30, 94 games, .406 OBP, .512 SLG
Burrell: age 32, 152 games, .382 OBP, .496 SLG
Ibanez: age 36, 156 games, .356 OBP, .488 SLG
Abreu: age 34, 156 games, .387 OBP, .457 SLG
Dunn: age 29, 156 games, .378 OBP, .514 SLG
I hate the Bradley signing by the Cubs. He does have the best numbers when he actually plays but it seems you can pretty much take it to the bank he will at least miss a third of the season. He is a switch hitter which is nice...but the problem is he is better from the right side of the plate than the left side which sort of defeats the purpose of what the Cubs were after...left handed protection in the order. Not to mention his anger issues...I am sure our other problem child Zambrano is going to get along with him great...uggh. The signing smacks of desperation.
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| 211 | Perm Dude
ID: 3048613
Wed, Jan 07, 2009, 01:03
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Indians make low-risk, high-reward signing of Pavano.
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| 212 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 10:23
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I still haven't heard a decent case for Ibanez over Burrell. Anyone?
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| 213 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 10:24
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And how exactly is Pavano "high reward"?
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| 214 | Boxman
ID: 337352111
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 10:56
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The Bradley signing is so Cub-like. WGN TV reported it earlier this week and talked about how the Cubs finally got the left handed bat they were looking for.
All the highlights they showed had Bradley batting right handed.
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| 215 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 11:35
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Smoltz & Baldelli (likely) to the Red Sox
Trevor Hoffman signs with the Brewers
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| 216 | Nerfherders
ID: 347242717
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 11:54
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And the Braves' Worst Offseason in History continues.
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| 217 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 13:33
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Yeah I wanted Hoffman. We have to replace JC Romero somehow.
Baldelli and Smoltz is a coup for the Red Sox. Go figure.
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| 218 | Perm Dude
ID: 210989
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 13:58
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Pavano: If he stays healthy, for $1.5 mill, the Tribe got a 3rd or 4th starter who won't be the fall-off pitcher they've been suffering through. He has the potential to win 10-12 games if he stays on the mound.
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| 219 | Great One
ID: 151126410
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 14:02
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sure were a lot of IF's in that sentence, thats for sure... but I agree low risk, high reward for Pavano
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| 220 | Mith
ID: 2894309
Thu, Jan 08, 2009, 14:09
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Godspeed.
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| 221 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Fri, Jan 09, 2009, 14:16
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According to this link the third year of Milton Bradley's contract becomes a club option if he has health issues in 2009.
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| 222 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 13:52
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Braves sign Derek Lowe...4yrs, $60mil. Seems a bit much!
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| 223 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:03
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Nice! Scratch them off from contention.
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| 224 | Razor
ID: 181051618
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:11
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Lowe is a bona fide #2. It all depends how he holds up in his late 30's, but over the past 3 or 4 years, he has been one of the top 15 pitchers in the game. That should command $15 mil a year in this market.
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| 225 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:37
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Oh I know. But four years? Honestly, in the playoffs Lowe was the one guy who scared me. But I can't imagine he'll keep that up.
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| 226 | C1-NRB
ID: 2911103011
Tue, Jan 13, 2009, 17:55
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I still haven't heard a decent case for Ibanez over Burrell. Anyone?
I'm late chiming in on this but I'll give it a shot.
Run production.
Taking J's three season scenario from post 202 and reiterated in post 207 but not broken down, Ibanez produced (R+RBI) 606 runs vs. Burrell's 509 and Ibanez did it "on a crap team" with only Ichiro (of any significance) hitting in front of him.
Divided out per game, Ibanez produced 1.29 R/game while Burrell produced 1.11 Not a statistically significant difference on first glance, but it adds up to 29 runs over the course of 162 games.
Baseball can't start soon enough!
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| 227 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 15, 2009, 17:07
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"Only" Ichiro? Runs produced is a terrible metric. It relies on opportunities. Do you have stats for RBIs per man on base ahead of him? What are the year-by-year OPS numbers for each guy?
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| 228 | filthy
ID: 388531216
Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 05:53
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"Only Ichiro?" was my initial thought as well.
I think that Ibanez is leaving a situation that was perfect for him. He generally had Ichiro causing trouble on the bases and getting into scoring position for him while the 2 hitter would often be giving Ichiro enough time to move up but not hitting enough to be driving him in. Ibanez got a decent amount of RBI through sac flies and ground outs last year. Out of 87 non homer RBI, 43 of them were Ichiro.
I also think Ibanez has moved into another pretty solid situation in Philly. Whether it's Ichiro aided or not, he crushes with runners on, and should continue that trend with Rollins playing the Ichiro role. The only way Ibanez is a letdown is if the Phils bat him fifth. Ryan Howard has a tendency to clear some bases and I don't think Ibanez can come close to the 20 solo homers that Burrell hit in 2008.
Ibanez will probably bat third till Utley returns with Victorino moving out of the heart of the lineup and Ibanez sticking in the 2 or 3 spot once Utley does return. Ibanez should spend the full season sandwiched in the lineup by MVP candidates, which will lead to MVP numbers of his own.
A lot could depend on Ryan Howard as well. If the downgrade in protection affects Howard negatively, then Ibanez could be forced into batting fifth. Someone else would get the credit and the gravy stats at the top of the lineup. Ibanez would provide solid protection but be seen as a disappointment because he would put up good, not great, numbers.
Overall, I think that Werth will provide passable protection for Howard, and Ibanez will be able to put up some big numbers batting 2nd or 3rd. Howard will be pitched around with bases open, might even improve his plate discipline, and will still be a beast. Pretty even swap, slight edge to Ibanez in my mind.
Phillies offense will still frighten pitchers regularly.
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| 229 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Mon, Jan 19, 2009, 10:38
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Why would Ibanez' homers go DOWN??? Seattle is a huge park, the Phils play in a tiny park!
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| 230 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Feb 10, 2009, 17:03
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Blue Jays acquire Matt Bush. Yes, that Matt Bush.
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| 231 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Tue, Feb 10, 2009, 17:08
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Dave Bush?
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| 232 | blue hen
ID: 8115717
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 00:45
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Matt Bush, the #1 overall pick in 2004.
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| 233 | Great One
ID: 31112109
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 15:23
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Abreu to the Angels for 5 million plus incentives. How could the Mets with a gaping hole in their OF corner spots not make at least that offer? I can understand they didn't want to ante up to get Manny, but Abreu is a pretty darn good player and even better at that price.
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| 234 | Great One
ID: 31112109
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 15:32
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Adam Dunn to the Nationals?!!Can I cut and paste my reaction from above?
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| 235 | Nerfherders
ID: 347242717
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 16:03
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And I will cut and paste and replace 'Mets' with 'Braves'.
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| 236 | Khahan
ID: 1065339
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 16:35
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Holy crap. $5 mil for Abreu for 1 year? What a steal. My jaw dropped. The article on espn says it is not official yet, but might as well be.
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| 237 | wiggs
ID: 0139914
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 19:56
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If he would sign for 5 million the yanks should have resigned him.
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| 238 | blue hen
ID: 8115717
Wed, Feb 11, 2009, 23:57
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Woe is Ibanez. At least flags fly forever.
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| 239 | PuNk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 00:07
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Abreu is a shell of himself at this point.
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| 240 | Great One
ID: 31112109
Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 15:54
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Yeah, I agree. I mean this guy is completely done, look at these awful stats last year! I expect MUCH more from a 5 million dollar player. .296 AVG
.371 OBP
20 HR's
22 SB's
39 Doubles
100 RBI
100 Runs
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| 241 | wiggs
ID: 0139914
Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 16:08
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GO- I cant agree with you more- I think Abreu is still pretty solid- I mean compare his numbers to a guy like
Mike Cameron- for 7 million- I take abreu any day
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| 242 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 18:15
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And he's two years younger than Ibanez.
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| 243 | steve houpt
ID: 451161019
Thu, Feb 12, 2009, 18:34
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Just comparing Ibanez and Burrel, Burrel's OBP and SLG is higher than Ibanez the last three years.
OBP .385 > .354
SLG .504 > 492
OPS .889 > 846
Using a 2002 'Runs Created' formula's - just an old spreadsheet that it was available from - should be 'relatively close' for rotoguru work]:
Runs Created - use 2002 version
ONE RUN CREATED per every [xx] At Bats.
Burrel: 1 RC per 6.23 AB's
Ibanez: 1 RC per 6.66 AB's
Runs created per 486 outs [i.e. = 27 outs per game = 9 Games played = 486 outs equal 162 games]
Burrel: 123 RC per 486 outs
Ibanez: 109 RC per 486 outs
The outs are:
AB - H
+ CS
+ SH
+ SF
+ GIDP
On a 500 team with a 4.5 to 4.5 RS to RA ratio, 14 runs created in a season 'might' make a +1.44 game difference. On a 550 team with a 5.0 to 4.5 ratio RS to RA, maybe only a +1.28 game difference using Bill James RS^1.88 / (RS + RA)^1.88 ratio.
Such a small difference, you'd have to look at other 'differences'.
Fielding.
-- Ibanez --- .985 in LF with 1642 total chances. 60 Assists. 753 Games Started as Left Fielder.
-- Burrel --- .976 in LF with 1975 total chances. 86 Assists. 984 Games Started as Left Fielder.
Slight advantage Ibanez IMHO.
Age.
Ibanez will be 37 on June 2nd.
Burrel just turned 32 last October.
Advantage Burrel long run, short term 37 is not old. No effect year 2009. And no signs of Ibanez slowing down. 162 games last year [153 in the field].
Not much difference IMHO either way for baseball year 2009. Very small adv Burrel - off, small adv Ibanez defense. Maybe advantage both players, and Tampa and Philly, just being on new teams - some times pumps you up - want to impress. Would not be suprised if both players have 'better' years.
Time willl tell.
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| 244 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 10:08
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I'll admit that 2009 Ibanez might be about the same as 2009 Burrell, although I'd put my money on Burrell. 37 is actually old. No offense to our 37 year olds, but there's a big difference between those two ages.
I have some issues with your numbers. Burrell created those runs in Philly, so he's actually worse than that. I'll give you that.
And I don't like your defensive metrics. I'd say Ibanez is worse. Do you have zone rating or some other metric?
Point is that Burrell is better and Ibanez got more years for more money. And in my eyes, Burrell is the worst of the other three.
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| 245 | barilko6
ID: 4415138
Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 10:16
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Give me Bobby Abreu over both those guys...unless...he is a cancer in the clubhouse. I mean there has to be some reason why he got such a little contract.
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| 246 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 4110481415
Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 10:43
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with drugs hopefully being taken out of the game...35 is the new 40...I expect we will start seeing more historically accurate player declines with age.
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| 247 | steve houpt
ID: 451161019
Fri, Feb 13, 2009, 23:38
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blue hen - even adjusting half the games using these two sites rating MLB parks:
You get:
Burrel RC 120
Ibanez RC 113
MLB.com - fantasy, park effects - 3 years
ESPN - MLB park Factors
Numbers and stats are meant to play with. You can do lots with them - want fielding stats on range, I'm sure you can get them - me - this was more than enough fun on really 'nothing' anyway. Was just curious.
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| 248 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Sun, Oct 17, 2010, 01:12
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Burrell actually beats Ibanez in many defensive metrics.
Well, that's like saying that the Gaza Strip actually beats Somalia in Gross Domestic Product per citizen.
Pat Burrell, the Gaza Strip of outfield defense!
Somalia dropped the Gaza Strip shot to left tonight. Nice job, Mogadishu!
Don't think Brandon Webb got $160 million.
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| 249 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3310162612
Thu, Feb 07, 2013, 18:54
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I was more than half way there with my call in post 130. Just over fours years after CC signed his $161 million contract...
King Felix stays with the M's for 7 years, $175 million.
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