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Subject: Jeff Kent to retire
Posted by: Perm Dude
- [410112116] Wed, Jan 21, 2009, 23:53
story
HoF next, I'm guessing. |
| 1 | Toral
ID: 575542418
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 04:56
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Lots of interesting/flukey things in the list of most similar players at baseball-reference.com.
Strange fact of the day: the 5 players with the most similar stats over their careers are all catchers.
I first assumed that this was because b-r's similarity score system didn't use positional adjustments like the original syatem designed by Nill James, does. But checking it out, this system does. So why 5 catchers? Well, catcher and 2B are right beside each other in difficulty as defensive positions. (As I would see it. Catcher is hard to place. You might put CF ahead of it, I suppose.) So you take the few players who have long careers at position with similar defensive difficulty and are very good hitters with quite good but not great power and this is what you get: 5 HoF quality catchers and: Jeff Kent.
4 of these 5 most similar players are in the HoF and Ted Simmons should be.
Another odd fact: the next 2 players on the list were each in his own way right on the cusp of the HoF, on the margin where it could have gone either way. Dave Parker's votes aren't close but he's on the margin in the sense that one fewer season where his talent was wasted by drugs, or maybe one more very good recovery year at the end of his career, and he makes it. If that case back in the '70s where all those Pirates had to testify about drugs gets plea bargained before trial, Parker maybe makes it.
The next guy on the list is Jim Rice.
2 positions down the list: Ryne Sandberg. This is going to be the one big comparison. Their careers were of similar length. Kent's stats are slightly, but clearly, better. His career OPS+: 122. Sandberg's: 114.
On the list of most similar players at the age of 40, 2 more HoFers: Ernie Banks and Willie Stargell. Plus 2 more guys right on the margin: Tony Perez and Andre Dawson, now top of the list in % of votes received last election.
On the list of players with most similar seasons looking year-by-year: 4 seasons of Joe Gordon, still another marginal HoFer, a 2B who just made it this year, a mere 58 years after he retired and 30 years after he died.
This vote will be interesting. Keith Law's being interviewed on ESPN Radio and is saying that he wouldn't vote for Kent because of his defensive shortcomings. And different slants can be adopted on Kent's problems with other players. The story PD linked to subtly painted Kent as a hero who got into battles with druggies and lazy head cases like Bonds and Bradley because Kent was such an intense player with so much respect for the integrity of the game:Kent was known for his intense approach to the game and he criticized players who used performance-enhancing drugs while endorsing improved testing. Keith Law's take? It was Kent who started all the trouble with Bonds in San Francisco, it was Kent who was being the jerk.
Kent's supporters will be able to throw some interesting stats at people who try to keep Kent out based on bad defence. His career fielding percentage at 2B? .980. League average: .982. Big deal. His range factor was .4 of a play better than the average 2B RF for his career.
My argument would be different: look, nobody is allowed to play most of his time at 2B until he's 40 if his defence is so bad as to be a serious detriment. He gets moved somewhere else.
Ted Keith has a really dumb article in SI.com: Here's something sensible. My intuitive sense is that he makes it, not first ballot, but within a few years of being eligible.
Toral
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| 2 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 4110481415
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 10:45
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Should he make the hall of fame? Maybe...leaning towards yes.
Will he make it? No...I do not think he will...I will be surprised if he sees greater than 25% vote in his first year of eligibility.
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| 3 | Perm Dude
ID: 410112116
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 10:52
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It'll be tough for year one for him. Maddux is certainly in on that year's ballot. Mussina might get some votes as well. It'll be interesting to see which positional players are still around from previous years.
It'll be an interesting induction ceremony if Bonds & Kent get in at the same time!
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| 4 | Razor
ID: 56038210
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 10:53
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Kent was an average defender. Defensive shortcomings? What, did he only watch him the last two years? He was no Robbie Alomar, but to keep an exceedingly talented offensive player out of the Hall because he was merely an average defender is laughable.
Kent is definitely a Hall of Famer, and he won't have any trouble getting in.
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| 5 | Nerfherders
ID: 347242717
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 11:15
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Yeah he's a sure HoF in my book. Has an MVP, was 'feared' for about a 4-5 year span. Played a defensive position adequetly. I'm not sure what else he could have done to get in other than get a break earlier in his career.
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| 6 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 16:07
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Definite HOF. I didn't like him and the stuff in SF was his fault, but give the man his due.
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| 7 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Thu, Jan 22, 2009, 16:18
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Great player. Kind of a jerk in teh clubhouse, but lots of jerks in the HoF.
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