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Subject: TSN Salary Cap 2009
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Mar 17, 2009, 17:14
Please us this thread to raise questions, issues, or general discussion on the TSN salary cap game(s) for 2009.
I know there is at least one "expert" newbie playing the TSN game this year, so perhaps he can stimulate some good discussion from many of us retreads who tend not to discuss it much anymore. |
| 1 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 17, 2009, 17:17
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By the way, the GuruPatron division is open to all GuruPatrons once again. Details are on the bottom of the GuruPatron validation page.
We have 8 teams in the division already, so only two more are needed to make it prize-eligible.
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| 2 | Alex
ID: 3217239
Wed, Mar 18, 2009, 05:25
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I think I'm the 'expert newbie". I've never played any TSN games before, so I'm definitely more 'newbie' than expert right now.
I assume that the basic idea here is to build roster value early, and then earn points later.
More specifically, I'm assuming that initially I should get players who everyone will recognize as underpriced, and then once those prices move up I should switch to players who I think will perform well enough to drive their prices up.
Most of my questions have to do with how the pricing works...
-How quickly will 'off' prices move up to where they should be?
-To what extent is the market 'smart' about pricing, and to what extent should I just chase seemingly random 'runs' on players?
-Overall, is there inflation, or do some prices move down to compensate for those that rise?
-What is generally known about the mechanism for pricing, beyond the little bit that's posted in the rules?
-What are some reasonable targets for roster value at various points in the season?
-What kind of roster should those target roster values allow me to carry?
I'll definitely have more, but let's see if anyone is interested in discussing this first.
I promise once I know what I'm doing I'll have plenty to contribute.
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| 3 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 18, 2009, 09:50
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Alex - you said in another thread that your are playing the "free" game, so I will base responses on that game. It's not the one that most "experts" from RotoGuru play, so our level of expertise may be somewhat lacking.
-How quickly will 'off' prices move up to where they should be?
Depends primarily on how the player starts, and somewhat on how much he was recognized as underpriced before the season started. An underpriced player who starts slowly will have trouble getting traction. (And an overpriced player who starts out hot will see plenty of buying action - as long as he isn't too expensive.)
In the early going especially, production appears to be exaggerated, and "the masses" will respond to big games, regardless of the likely sustainability. And if a widely drafted underpriced player starts slowly, he could sustain big losses, as managers tend not to be very patient in the early going.
-To what extent is the market 'smart' about pricing, and to what extent should I just chase seemingly random 'runs' on players?
If you are really playing "free" and not buying trades, then you'll need to be selective. Buy the runs that seem to be sustainable. Don't buy irrational hype. If you are buying extra trades, then you can be less selective in your chase for $.
-Overall, is there inflation, or do some prices move down to compensate for those that rise?
There is definitely roster inflation, since bought players go up (and bought players are actually on rosters), while sold players go down (and they are not on as many). If you add up all of the daily individual player changes, you'll see a net decline - but the declines are spread out on many players who are lightly owned.
Prices for a given player can keep rising as long as there are more teams to buy them. In the free game, since new teams continue to be created throughout the season, there tends to be a constant upward push for "value players", at least until they reach fair value. (In the Ultimate game, this is not true, as cheap players tend to top out in price before hitting fair value.)
-What is generally known about the mechanism for pricing, beyond the little bit that's posted in the rules?
A lot. I'll try to dig out an old thread or two on this. (Maybe someone can help find them?)
Each day, price movements are related to two factors - trading activity, and gravity.
Trading activity is all relative, day by day. If a player gets 100 buys on a day with 1000 total trades, his price increase will be the same as if he got only 10 buys on a day with 100 total trades. So price volatility can be greater on days with less trading, especially if there is a daily "theme" (related to injury, or moving into a hot player.)
Pitcher pricing is based on the same general formula, but uses trade activity over the previous 5 days, which tends to even out the activity over pitching cycles. This makes pitcher pricing more predictable, as inertia has a big impact. Ride the momentum on a gainer, but get out of the way when the tide turns.
"Gravity" causes lightly owned players to decline in value by $20K per day. The philosophy is to attempt to bring the prices of those players down to a "fairer" value until they are more attractively priced.
-What are some reasonable targets for roster value at various points in the season?
Having not played the free game competitively for many years, I can't respond. It certainly depends on whether you are buying trades or not. If you actually want to compete for a prize in the free game, you probably need to buy the maximum allowable trades - which makes the game more expensive than the Ultimate game.
-What kind of roster should those target roster values allow me to carry?
Ditto.
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| 4 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 18, 2009, 10:05
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Here is the initial essay on the price change formula:
http://rotoguru2.com/base/ba99-02.html
It's 10 years old(!), but the basic mechanics are essentially the same, with two important adjustments:
1. Gravity - which I alluded to above. If a player is lightly owned, his price will drop $20K per day. ($30K in the Ultimate game). Players near the gravity threshold can have reduced impacts.
2. A dampening factor was added (at least 5 years ago - maybe longer) that reduces the impact on the most heavily bought and sold players. The impact is that, absent a glitch (which seems to happen about once a year), the maximum possible daily change is about $230K, and changes of more than $200K are rare. The factor is essentially logarithmic. Prices changes of $100K or less are a somewhat linear function of net trading, but as your get to higher trade volumes, the curve bends down, flattening out by the time the price change gets slightly over $200K.
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| 5 | money4later
ID: 2111213116
Wed, Mar 18, 2009, 10:06
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It's been 6-7 years since I've played the baseball cap game. Looking for any reminders as to how I should build and manage my roster. I do remember that later in the year, you should have trades saved up to rotate pitchers. But beyond that, I can't recall any strategy for which positions to go cheap on and which positions to buy/hold the big guns. Thanks Guru!
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| 6 | Alex
ID: 3217239
Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 18:40
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So I'm confused. I had assumed getting undervalued players into my lineup for opening day would be a good idea. From reading the message boards at TSN, I'm getting the impression that those players will likely DROP in price early due to their high ownership leading to more potential sells than buys. Is that right? So should I assume that many of the guys who are currently undervalued are going to end up even more undervalued some time in the first week or two of the season?
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| 7 | dpr
ID: 552411820
Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 18:47
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A highly owned player is a risk to go down in price so you do not want to have too many of them to start the year. With baseball being such a streaky sport even the best players will have stretches where they dont get hits. If this happens to start the season to a highly owned player then he is going to lose money. If he starts hot he can still make money because no player will be bought by all managers to start the year. So don't shy away from them, as there are reasons that you like them, but be sure not to have too many. Get a few and then add a few undervalued but less popular players and a few more expensive players for the points they provide and you should be safe. Having position flexibility and extra cash to get into the first trains is a big key too.
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| 8 | An Old Hippie
ID: 522361721
Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 01:09
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Pitchers are even a little more tricky. Opening day starters are almost certain to lose money no matter how they pitch. Part of that is the 5 day cycle- they have no buys in the bank so just sells count against them. Also there will be a number of managers who burn through the trades immediately. Most times look for starters that pitch on the second or third day.
In basic look for a couple of starters with good opening schedules that you can hold. The third spot should go for a closer that will "train". The third spot s/b a starter that you trade for that closer. Closers train long before starters on the average.
Find a cheap catcher that plays and then forget the slot.
In basic no trade buying your trades need to be used on pitchers that have a good schedule. Pitchers seem to score more then hitters on average.
Try and bank a trade here and there. They come in handy.
Don't be a tradeaholic and burn through them right away. Believe when I say that as I am one. And more teams have flamed out for that reason then any other
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| 9 | money4later
ID: 2111213116
Wed, Apr 01, 2009, 10:16
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A couple more questions for Guru or anyone else as I agonize over my roster in Ultimate:
1) Is it wise to have more than one closer on your opening day roster?
2) Is there any benefit to staggering your starting pitchers so that they don't all pitch on the same day?
3) Is it a big deal to pick up players that DON'T have the day off on 4/7?
Thanks again
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| 10 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Apr 01, 2009, 11:17
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(1) It can be. There have been times when I've had multiple closers, especially early in the season. The trick is figuring out which ones to own before the season starts. A cheap closer who is highly owned and implodes in an early game will not work out well.
(2) Perhaps, as it may give you more flexibility (or efficiency) in rotating through starters if you have different daily options. But again, that can be hard to plan in advance.
(3) What's the issue regarding 4/7? Why is that a special consideration?
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| 11 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Wed, Apr 01, 2009, 11:36
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I think question 3 is actually "Should I pick up players who have an off day coming up?"
The answer, in my opinion, is "sometimes." Obviously, if your player isn't playing on a certain day, he won't score any points, and you'd be better off with someone who is playing.
However, you should aim to hold players for 3 or 4 weeks (or more, if possible). Given that, one particular off day isn't going to make much difference. Especially early in the season, when it's more important to have flexibility (and more trades). You should probably just ignore the 4/7 off day, in general.
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| 12 | money4later
ID: 2111213116
Wed, Apr 01, 2009, 15:14
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Thank you very much. My head's still spinning, but not as bad..LOL
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| 13 | beebop
ID: 175552221
Wed, Apr 01, 2009, 16:25
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Ive just bought my first team in about 5 years or more. Doubt i can have another top 20 finish, i think that was a once off.
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| 14 | beebop@work
ID: 33656721
Wed, Apr 01, 2009, 16:36
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Hmm, im struggling with the new layout. Have they changed the points system? I cant seem to find it anywhere?
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| 15 | Aaron
ID: 43272812
Sun, Apr 05, 2009, 01:16
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My question is how does everyone view the day late strategy now? I have always been very successful with that strategy, but now I see it is penalized. I was unable to do much with fantasy baseball last year and never got to test the waters on this one. Is is it worth it to go day late now and build up RV or is it not worth the penalty? I have bought three teams and am planning on only fielding one on opening day and doing two day late teams, but I wanted some input.. thanks!
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| 16 | Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Apr 05, 2009, 09:32
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I stopped doing day-late teams once they changed the rule. 3-trades is too big of a penalty to play.
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