| 0 |
Subject: Grienke
Posted by: Little George
- [2242329] Tue, May 05, 2009, 23:53
Haven't seen one of these threads around in a while but I'm sure I can get some assistance from the seasoned vets around here.
What should be done with Grienke? He's obviously the hottest pitcher in baseball today but now it looks as if his price has peaked. Would it be worth to sit on a trade and keep him or should I dump him for Haren? |
| 1 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 721308
Wed, May 06, 2009, 09:13
|
While it may be stating the obvious, Grienke is not going to finish the year 36-0, with a sub-1.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. So, you basically have to figure out:
1. When everybody else is going to freak out and sell him or...
2. When you think he's going to have a bad start (which would more easily lead to #1).
If you take out Greinke's wins, the teams he's faced so far this year are a combined 69-59. TOR (19-10; 19-9 without Greinke's win) was the toughest team he faced and he turned in his "worst" performance.
Going with an every 5th game schedule, Greinke's upcoming games would be:
@LAA (12-13, 6-6 Home)
vBAL (10-17, 3-9 Road)
vCLE (10-17, 5-10 Road)
vDET (14-12, 6-7 Road)
@TAM (12-16, 6-7 Home)
@TOR (19-10, 11-4 Home, June)
Personally, unless one of those first 5 teams catches fire, I'd hold until Greinke started seeing noticeable money losses (even then, I would only sell to keep the gains and then possibly get back into him at a lower price) or had an unexpected bad game. I would be highly inclined to sell before the TOR game.
|
| 2 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, May 06, 2009, 10:28
|
The issue is not so much when Greinke will come back to earth, but how much it will cost you in the TSN game to wait it out.
Today will be the day when we begin to figure that out. In the Basic game, his price still seems to be climbing. But in Ultimate, he's flattened out. His reported ownership of 36% isn't scary per se, but those who haven't yet bought are unlikely to do so now (if they understand how the game works). Everyone has 3 new pitching trades today, and the big question is how many will use one to sidestep a potential price debacle.
At some point, the losses will begin to mount to a level that those with more patience will decide to bail as well, and then we'll just have to wait for him ownership to bottom out.
So, from a price management standpoint, I suspect the question will boil down to, "sell now, or wait for one more start." If you have an attractive alternative, you might want to make the switch earlier than later.
I have Greinke on only a couple of teams, and I'll probably make the lateral shift into Haren, since he pitches sooner, has an attractive matchup, and is assured of being a good price gainer for the next week or so, barring a complete implosion in San Diego. And if Haren is your preferred option, it seems unlikely that Greinke will significantly outpoint him, at least by enough to make the price differential worthwhile. But on any given day....
|
| 3 | Little George
ID: 2242329
Wed, May 06, 2009, 18:28
|
Thanks for the insights guys. I'm definitely moving Grienke into Haran now. Hope it works out.
|
| 4 | smallwhirled
ID: 33452710
Thu, May 07, 2009, 11:55
|
Tough situation. I feel like many here have figured out a way to pick up Haren in the last few days while still keeping Greinke.
I'm content with holding Greinke if he gets past LAA due to the upcoming schedule.
|
| 5 | holt
ID: 303502019
Thu, May 07, 2009, 12:47
|
I haven't played tsn in years, but aren't there times when you should say screw the money? I mean Greinke has been unbelievable. Is his price really so high that he is a must-sell? just wondering.
|
| Rate this thread: | If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time. If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating. If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here. |
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
|
|