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Subject: How Would You Rate This Atlanta Braves Trade?
Posted by: Bo Donnelly
- [5947716] Thu, May 07, 2009, 17:22
Braves trade OF Jeff Francoeur, 1B Casey Kotchman, and RHP James Parr to Toronto for 1B Lyle Overbay and OF Alex Rios.
Overbay hits right hand pitching mercilessly, and Rios would help with the Braves' OF woes. For Toronto fans, Francoeur and Kotchman are made for AL baseball. Also, Francoeur hits the ball VERY hard. On Toronto's synthetic surface, he should really thrive.
Francoeur grew up in Atlanta and has spent almost his entire life here, and I believe he needs a challenge. National League baseball is not for him in my mind. I believe he would perform much better in a format of baseball where he can get out and run and where more runs are scored. He's a true athlete's athlete. For Toronto, acquiring Francoeur would be a little like getting Rick Ankiel from St. Louis. They are similar athletes. Absolutely Kotchman is a full blooded American league player. He can put up 25 homers easily in the AL...
As for Parr, Toronto needs some pitchers to keep the heat on their staff which performed so well last year but has not lived up to expectations this year, and he is a great prospect for the future. Last year Toronto led MLB in ERA (3.49) as an American League team...that's unbelievable to me.
I would like to see the Braves get a reliever like Scott Downs (Braves need lefties, that's for sure) in a trade like this, but I'm not sure who I would include to get him. Guess it would have to be a minor league prospect or another young reliever like Jeff Bennett perhaps (actually not so young I guess (almost 29)).
The Braves have loads of 1B prospects so they can bring up someone to hit LHP and platoon Overbay. Again he's awesome against RHP...
I like Toronto, but I think they may get in trouble soon. Their ERA is up (T-11/4.16), and they are counting on the bat of Aaron Hill to get them wins. He's good, but I don't think he'll sustain his current paces through the year.
Seems to me a win win situation for both teams... |
| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 57432710
Thu, May 07, 2009, 17:40
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I see no reason why Toronto would want to make that trade. Rios is superior in every category to Jeff. I'm assuming he doesn't have a blog, therefore he wins that category as well.
Francouer was so horrible last year, he cost the Braves wins.
Kotchman is younger than Overbay. That's about the only exciting difference between the two.
I don't like the idea at first glance and probably never would.
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| 2 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 5947716
Thu, May 07, 2009, 17:47
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I think you're right about Rios, but what looks great might not be so great in Toronto. This is me talkin' but no way they go the distance without improving their pitching. Also, Francoeur is made for that ballpark. Funny thing to me, I believe they can do it with just one really top notch young pitcher like Parr. It might seem strange, but I really believe this trade would help the Jays make the playoffs. Without something, I believe they're gonna fold...
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| 3 | filthy
ID: 388531216
Thu, May 07, 2009, 22:12
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I just might be the only person who doesn't think the Jays season will fall apart. And I think I would also be the only Jays fan left if they made that trade. Not that I like that trade, just that I'm hopelessly addicted to the Jays.
Francoeur was good for like a couple months after callup. He has since fallen off the map. Fantasy wise at least, I admittedly don't get much Braves coverage. Rios could be a GoldGlove centerfielder if there wasn't an albatross already parked in center for the Jays. Francoeur is known for having a cannon, but Rios also is known for his cannon. If it weren't for a staph infection and a horrible leadoff experiment, Rios would already be a known 5 tool superstar around the league. Not that he is an unknown, but he has still yet to reach his potential. And that is scary considering what he has already done.
Overbay/Kotchman seems pretty reasonable until you look into it deeper. The Jays would have to be floored to trade Overbay at this moment. He could have been had for a fungo stick last season, but you've obviously seen the righty splits this year. Also, Overbay is a defensive wiz at first.
Parr seems like he could be good, but not exactly a dealbreaker. The Jays pitching depth is much, much better than you make it sound. It's just that half of it is on the DL. Mills, Cecil, Purcey, Litsch, Marcum, Richmond, Romero, tons of young arms. The Jays could probably turn Parr into an AllStar now that I think of it. Something about being near Roy Halladay makes other pitchers better. This year is about seeing what the young arms are made of, 2010 is the year the Jays will be aggressive about making a run. Halladay/Marcum/Cecil/Litsch/Purcey is a mindblasting 2010 rotation to me. If anything the Jays could trade an arm or two, bullpen is ridiculously deep and McGowan is a question mark that still might have a little trade value.
Only way Braves would get Rios in a trade is if Yunel Escobar or Tommy Hanson was involved, and I am sure as a Braves fan you would laugh and say both those guys are untouchable. Overbay is a doable trade but the Braves would have to wait for a slump, and then they probably wouldn't want him.
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| 4 | Seattle Zen
ID: 57432710
Thu, May 07, 2009, 23:16
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Something about being near Roy Halladay makes other pitchers better.
Wow, you really ARE a starry-eyed Jays optimist. You ought to work in their PR department.
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| 5 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 5947716
Fri, May 08, 2009, 00:22
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o lord, filthy...Francoeur...uuuuu...
Jeff was made to play on an artificial surface and in the American league (TB, TOR, MIN). Maybe it's today's players, maybe it's just that I'm noticing things I never noticed before, I'm not sure, but the players today seem to me to be so fit to play baseball in one place or another. If Tony La Russa weren't in St. Louis, Rick Ankiel would be dead by now I think. He's another one who should be playing AL baseball, also on artificial turf in my opionion.
Granted Rios makes things happen, and he has star power, something the Braves are desperate for (I guess everybody, really). My thing is about the Jays pitching situation. I can see how you would believe that I'm crazy to say that the Jays have a pitching problem. I mean, they led MLB last year in ERA...baseball's best staff, and it's the same players as last year other than AJB, who I could care less about. However, what if Halliday leaves after 2010? This is far gone enough a thought, but Roy Halliday could become easily and by far baseball's highest paid player in one fell swoop. Imagine what the Yankees are thinking about him right now. At any rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring $30 Million or more a year from some kook owner. The thing is, if Halliday leaves after 2010, the Jays have left this staff of pitchers that are good, sometimes very good pitchers, built to compliment his abilities. Really, are they Santana or even Vasquez? I don't think so but good pitchers, sometimes, and good can be hard to find.
But it almost seems to me like the Jays have built in their staff a monument to Roy Halliday, not that there's anything wrong with that, the guy has pull, and he's an awesome pitcher. All your pitchers seem at their best as compliments to his talents. On their own without him, though, the whole thing could fall apart if he leaves. Can the Jays keep it together if he does? Yeah, I think so, but I think it will take like 5 trades a year for pitchers who do it as starters like 2 times in a row and then disappear into someone's bullpen somewhere or some such. Again, I do like Litsch and Carlson, although Carlson might not be the most favored of your pitchers far and wide, right now. These guys ARE good pitcher, I believe.
However, what will it take for the Jays to continue with any credibility amongst free agents if they lose Roy Halliday AND the staff falls apart. O. K., you still have the bats, but what if they start to leave. Rios has a great contract through 2014, but Wells could be gone after 2011. No big deal, just replace them, but it's hard to replace guys who've played in one place a long time.
The biggest thing, though, would be losing Halliday. I mean, the guy casts a LONG shadow. That's why I started thinking about this last year. What are the Jays gonna do? These guys will be like the James gang without Jesse James. What is that?
I loved following Blue Jays baseball last year. The last couple of years, I've been continually finding myself proud of how the Jays are doing things..."they're doin' it right" is what keeps coming to my mind. Actually, what got me on this topic was following Overbay last year. What a freak show he's doing against RH pitching. I had him on my fantasy team in a 20 team league. Brutal competition the 20 teamers, but it brings out the best in everybody, I think. Anyway, I've scoured the Jays pretty good over the last few years, and I am concerned about their staff long term.
One more comment on Francoeur. Every town has one, and Jeff is Atlanta's super boy. A burb boy who led his high school football and baseball teams to 2 state championships each and then plays for no less than the home town BIG LEAGUE BALLCLUB. And he did it at a time when metro high school sports were down and had been for like 40 years. As a result, he's been all over the television here for it seems like 20 years even though it's only really been what 8 or so. At any rate, I know what's in Schuerholtz. As a result of Francoeur's high school heroics, he's scared to death to trade him. Unfortunately, I know down deep he's gonna have to do the deed. All the emotional junk people put themselves through just amazes me, sometimes. At any rate, for whoever, I hope he goes to Toronto, because he'd be a GREAT player there for a LONG time.
A note about Kotchman. He's still VERY young. I mean, he just played his first full year in 2007. I believe he'd be a 25 homerun machine in Toronto.
Finally, personally, I wouldn't blink to trade Hanson, even though he is gonna be a great player. I really believe the Braves, with their prospects and with what they've got on the roster and with some trades can put together a championship run THIS year. Off the wall thinking...I don't believe so, myself, but I am aware that almost noone would believe me, right now.
Oh well, such is baseball and such is life. Just have to wait to see what J.S. is able to do. I am encouraged that he all but announced to the U.N. that the Braves are TRYING to spend money...
Good to correspond with a devout trooper of Jays baseball. I like you guys' style...
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| 6 | blue hen
ID: 8115717
Fri, May 08, 2009, 01:23
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Seriously, there are a lot of holes here. First of, Kotchman is already 26, and even 25 isn't the really young you make it out to be. Honestly, his most likely scenario resembles something like... Lyle Overbay.
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| 7 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Fri, May 08, 2009, 11:02
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I think McCann has surplanted Francoeur as the best local kid on the Braves.
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| 8 | Razor
ID: 371502414
Fri, May 08, 2009, 13:36
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McCann was always the best local kid on the Braves. Probably still isn't the most popular or well know, though.
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| 9 | barilko6
ID: 35318613
Fri, May 08, 2009, 15:39
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I used to be a huge Rios fan, but having watched him play live the last year or so, I have started to sour on him. He never really seems to be trying. When in the field, balls will drop in foul territory that would appear there might be an opportunity to make a play on, but he just casually strides over and lets it drop...no hustle at all. I have seen this over and over.
Its frustrating, because Rios has all the tools. His arm is unquestionable. It is a true gun. But I just wonder if he has that "heart" that is needed for him to elevate to the next level.
As for this trade, I would still turn it down. Like BH said, I think Kotchman's talent ceiling at his age is Lyle Overbay. Francouer has just nosedived to the point I think he absolutely needs a fresh start somewhere, but wouldn't give up quality talent to take the chance that it might be here.
As for Zen's comment in post 4, many pitchers here have commented that working with Halladay's military like training regimen, as well as learning from his approach on the mound have made them take that next step as a pitcher. AJ Burnett made that comment repeatedly last year while putting in a career year, albeit in that ever so popular, for AJ, contract year.
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| 10 | Toral
ID: 575542418
Fri, May 08, 2009, 18:05
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many pitchers here have commented that working with Halladay's military like training regimen, as well as learning from his approach on the mound have made them take that next step as a pitcher
Many players will attribute their success to learning from/copying other players on the team, knowing that the press and fans like these comments, that it makes them sound humble, and that it can't hurt clubhouse morale, or the way they are regarded in the general manager's suite.
Halladay worked as hard when he was posting a 10.64 ERA. If some newly successful BJ pitcher says that he learned from Roy the humility to go down to the minors when he was not far from unconditional release, change his whole pitching philosophy, learn a new pitch or two, and alter his delivery significantly, I would be more inclined to take him seriously.
I like Roy Halladay a lot but he doesn't work any harder than hundreds of minor leaguers.
Toral
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| 11 | barilko6
ID: 3643816
Sat, May 09, 2009, 00:05
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I like Roy Halladay a lot but he doesn't work any harder than hundreds of minor leaguers.
Yet many of the pitchers who join the Jays immediately sign up for Halladay's military like workout regimen. You can find countless internet articles that talk about Halladay being perhaps the hardest working player in the MLB.
AJ wasn't just spouting off these comments to buy love from the fans. I don't think that is AJ's style. Doc became a mentor to AJ and made him a better pitcher, one who finally realized that he didn't have to try and blow the ball past every hitter he faced. (AJ's words)
Anyways, this is really sidetracking the thread! I still wouldn't do the deal!
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| 12 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 37838313
Sat, May 09, 2009, 12:07
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For what it's worth I've heard/read AJ repeat his "don't have to blow the ball past every hitter" comment numerous times since signing with the Yankees and have yet to hear of him attribute this approach to Halladay.
Further, 10 years ago almost exactly the same type of thing was being said about Roger Clemens when he came to NY. At the time it was Andy Pettitte who was singing the praises of Clemens' work ethic.
Hmmm.
Hopefully Doc & AJ's training regimen didn't include any female fertility drugs.
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| 13 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 37838313
Sat, May 09, 2009, 12:13
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I spoke too soon. After posting #12 I looked for a 2009 article that included the Burnett quote discussed above, sans any mention Halliday. The first one I came across has me eating my words:Yes, there is plenty of skepticism about Burnett because he has been on the disabled list 10 times during his career. Yet Burnett says it was no coincidence that he stayed healthy and didn't miss a start last season.
He admits to finally listening to people who have told him he didn't need to blow the ball by every hitter.
"I just got over being stubborn," he said Thursday. "I threw every pitch at max effort for eight years when I was on the mound, but I've changed a lot. It's really an understanding of how to get hitters out, as opposed to just mano a mano - see if you can hit it.
"I finally realized that to be successful you don't have to go out and try to hit triple digits on the radar gun all the time. Sometimes it's OK to throw a two-seamer and get a ground ball early in the count."
Pitching in Toronto for three seasons with former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay helped him overcome his macho approach. His 18 wins and an injury-free 2008 season convinced him. For that matter, by throttling back, he wound up being more overpowering than ever.
"The funny thing is," he said, "last year I stopped trying to strike guys out so much and I wound up always in position to get strikeouts. That's what throwing more strikes and getting ahead in the count does for you. I'm more of a pitcher now."
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| 14 | Mattinglyinthehall
ID: 37838313
Sat, May 09, 2009, 12:17
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And I think the suggested trade would be a terrible move for Toronto.
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| 15 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 564531011
Sun, May 10, 2009, 13:00
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Part 1
Thanks for these replies. When I started the thread, I more or less expected to be charred to cinders. Your comments have been considerate and fair, though.
I have a scenario for Jays fans in particular. Would you agree that Roy Halliday leaving would be a major shakeup to the Jays organization?
"Something about being near Roy Halladay makes other pitchers better"
"'Pitching in Toronto for three seasons with former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay helped him overcome his macho approach. His 18 wins and an injury-free 2008 season convinced him. For that matter, by throttling back, he wound up being more overpowering than ever'"
MTC
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| 16 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 564531011
Sun, May 10, 2009, 13:04
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Part 2
I'm a Braves devotee, and I've seen the beneficial results of pitchers throwing strikes and locating the ball. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine are the examples that come to my mind. Those guys pitched in Atlanta for 16 years in the case of Glavine and 20 years in the case of Smoltz. Their efforts, combined with those of Greg Maddux, lifted players like Steve Avery, Mark Wohlers, Kent Mercker, and Mike Stanton and the Braves had alot of success. Those guys found the confidence to throw strikes even though they weren't great pitchers, because the Braves' starting rotation wore down hitters to a certain extent. Here's the real question in my mind. Toronto has alot of good pitchers and being around Roy Halliday is helping them, right now. Honestly, what will become of them if Halliday leaves? Halliday has pull, and this work ethic and philosophy of his make an impression on other pitchers. That's probably true to a certain extent or at least sometimes with all "great" or GREAT pitchers. Their success and their approach to the game leave a mark on other pitchers, especially the young ones. Why else would people keep asking players in profile questions "who was the greatest influence on you growing up" or "what big leaguer did you look up to the most when you were in the minors?" It must be common for pitchers to pick up things from each other, especially the young ones, either from each other or from the veteran players.
MTC
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| 17 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 564531011
Sun, May 10, 2009, 13:08
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Part 3
Obviously, I'd put Roy Halliday in that veteran group now (I mean he has 12 years experience). He has his routine, and his career is in full swing, and he's on the record about his approach to the game of baseball and pitching.
MTC
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| 18 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 564531011
Sun, May 10, 2009, 13:10
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Part 4
The thing is, and, honestly, the Jays pitchers are better than Mercker and Stanton, who both had decent .500+ winning percentage careers, but I don't think a Steve Avery comparison is out of line. His final record, 96-83...
MTC
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| 19 | Bo Donnelly
ID: 564531011
Sun, May 10, 2009, 13:18
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Part 5
There's a pretty good bit more...I'll post later if possible...forum rules, I think...
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| 20 | filthy
ID: 388531216
Tue, May 19, 2009, 05:00
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Haha, I am basically a volunteer in the Roy Halladay PR department.
If there was a pitcher of the decade conversation, Roy Halladay would be mentioned in the top 5 at least. The way that he is, totally rubs off on the other players. There is no way that guys like Robert Ray, Scott Richmond, Jesse Litsch, Shawn Marcum, etc could do what they have been doing without Doc leading by example.
The Jays fans have seen most of their name players leave up until locking up Wells, and Rios to long contracts recently. But if the Jays were to not have Roy Halladay, I imagine the whole franchise would crumble. Other teams will throw out some tempting trade offers and eventually offer some huge dollars, but if the Jays were to let Roy Halladay leave, the real fans would also leave. The way hockey is crammed down our throats in Canada, it wouldn't be hard to lose interest in a Halladay-less Blue Jays team. I imagine that they will lock him up to an even longer contract than Wells got, even longer than the one Sabathia got. There is a huge wave of youth on its way up to Toronto so they can definitely afford to carry another massive contract. Aaron Hill is locked up cheap. Most of the pitching is going to be cheap. Snider and Lind are going to be cheap. The infield is either going to consist of more youngsters or some cheap veteran stopgaps once Rolen, Overbay, Ryan contracts expire. There is no way this team can possibly let Halladay leave. GM's that want to keep their jobs just don't make moves like that. Teams that want to keep their fans don't make moves like that.
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| 21 | filthy
ID: 388531216
Tue, May 19, 2009, 05:26
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And Rios, he does seem to be not trying at times. Especially frustrating when he slumps. He also seems to be afraid of diving and plays near the wall at times.
His stats seem to be on the way to recovering this year and we will likely see the 2007 Rios again because he will get a chance to bat 3rd and play RF for the whole season. No more lineup shuffles with Cito.
Hard to complain with what Rios has done so far in his career, if he actually is mailing it in at times. It probably wouldn't justify the contract if the last couple of seasons were his actual ceiling though.
Funny thing about Rios is that he is actually a great fielder if you believe in fielding stats. I dunno, but I always notice that Ichiro is stretching and not paying attention, sometimes not even wearing a glove, yet he still manages to be a defensive wizard when the ball is hit to him. So maybe Rios just wants to look cool like Ichiro. Too bad it is impossible to bat, run, or do anything like Ichiro.
Anyways, I couldn't really see the Jays trading him yet, but if another GM is willing to add some salary, Rios' contract would make his prospect price go down. If the Braves offered an infield prospect, the Jays would probably listen. Same deal with Overbay. Different calibers of prospect of course, and assuming a fall from contention/need to cut payroll at some point.
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