| 0 |
Subject: Hall of Fame 2010
Posted by: blue hen
- Dude [710321114] Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 13:59
Next year is going to be interesting. There are decent cases for Alomar, Larkin, Edgar, and McGriff and "more than nothings" for Galarraga, Ventura, and Zeile. Alomar definitely gets my vote, and probably at least one of the others. Your thoughts?
Complete List:
Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Dave Burba, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McLemore, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Robin Ventura, Fernando Vina, Todd Zeile |
| 1 | Razor
ID: 371502414
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:10
|
Alomar and Larkin. No for Edgar and McGriff. Maybe a token vote for Karros.
|
| 2 | Perm Dude
ID: 154552311
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:13
|
Larkin only. Alomar gets close. Edgar, Burks, and McGriff get over 40%.
Yesterday I was looking at Chipper Jones' numbers--he's getting up there. Was borderline a few years ago, IMO, but he's really picked himself up with the power numbers the last few years, and his career average is a pretty sweet .310.
|
| 3 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:19
|
Chipper is "clearly in" for me. So is Alomar, and I agree with the Larkin vote. Edgar is the guy who falls way short, but I'll admit that he's far better than Jim Rice.
|
| 4 | Razor
ID: 371502414
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:21
|
Chipper is a lock. Best 3B of his generation. Of 3B's who have come up since 1980, only Boggs has been better. Wright might be one day, and some other players were great but will have played the majority of their games at another position.
|
| 5 | Great One
ID: 17459269
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:24
|
I hate Chipper but I'd also say he's a lock.
|
| 6 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:31
|
The full HOF class of 2010 ballot contain the first-timers listed above, and holdovers who had at least 5% of the vote last year and have not been on the ballot 15 times.
Here are the 11 returning candidates and their 2009 vote percentages.
Andre Dawson 67.0
Bert Blyleven 62.7
Lee Smith 44.5
Jack Morris 44.0
Tim Raines 22.6
Mark McGwire 21.9
Alan Trammell 17.4
Dave Parker 15.0
Don Mattingly 11.9
Dale Murphy 11.5
Harold Baines 5.9
|
| 7 | Mith
ID: 2894309
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:31
|
Without looking at stats and accomplishments I'm pretty sure Alomar is the only one who I think deserves 1st ballot consideration. I think Larkin should probably get in after maybe a handful seasons of eligibility.
I have to take a look at McGriff and Edgar but I'm pretty sure I've long regarded those guys as borderline cases. I'm guessing that Galarraga, Ventura, Lankford and possibly Hentgen and Jackson come closest out of the remaining names, but all probably fall short.
|
| 8 | Seattle Zen
ID: 276422713
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:42
|
One more snarky Jim Rice insult, Blue Hen, and I'll have to snap you in half.
For those saying "yes" to Barry Larkin, are you also saying "yes" to Alan Trammell? Looking at their numbers, they are remarkably similar. Since I have not said "yes" to Trammell, I don't think I'd vote for Larkin.
I will have to think about this in more depth, but at initial blush I'm leaning toward voting for Robbie.
Todd Zeile is definitely nothing. Kevin Appier and Ellis Burks, on the other hand, were something.
|
| 9 | Great One
ID: 17459269
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:46
|
I think its hilarious that Todd Ziele even gets any list to do with the Hall of Fame.
|
| 10 | Perm Dude
ID: 154552311
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:48
|
I like Trammell (of course, I like Rocky Colavito, too so take it for what you wish). Larkin has an edge in most all categories so I'd put Larkin above Trammell by a bit. But they both should be in.
|
| 11 | Khahan
ID: 391582715
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 14:59
|
. I think Larkin should probably get in after maybe a handful seasons of eligibility.
This line of thinking I don't understand. Either they are a hall of famer or they are not. If you feel they are a hall of famer, vote for them. If you don't, then don't vote.
If Larkin doesn't deserve to get in on his first ballot, he doesn't deserve to get in on his 2nd, 3rd or 10th ballot.
This year, I see Alomar as the only new candidate and he should join Bert Blylevan and Andre Dawson.
Barry Larkin falls short. He's in the 'gary carter' company. Great player. Consistent allstar. Stands out above the average player. But not so much so of a stand out to deserve the hall of fame.
Larkin should probably/definitely appear in the Cincinnati Reds HoF. He spent his whole career there and was a great asset to them. A player in the past 25 years who spends his whole career with 1 team earns a certain degree of respect from me. But none of that changes the fact that his averages and counting stats just don't equal MLB Hall of Fame.
|
| 12 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 15:23
|
I personally vote Trammell in.
The returnees, in order:
Raines, McGwire, Blyleven, Trammell
Out, in order:
Morris, Murphy, Mattingly, Parker, Lee Smith
Seattle Zen:
I am still waiting for official stats in the "most feared" category.
Khahan:
I support Gary Carter as a Hall of Famer too.
I'll give you that Rice is close. Andre Dawson, on the other hand, is not.
|
| 13 | Seattle Zen
ID: 276422713
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 15:28
|
This line of thinking I don't understand.
It's not that hard to understand. Not all HOF's are the same. The way voters acknowledge this is by the percentage of votes first time ballot inductees receive and how many years it takes to get in. Cal Ripken was a first ballot, Jim Rice took 15 years.
It's quite logical, actually.
And speaking of the HOF, did you watch the speeches by Ricky & Jim? I was quite disappointed, particularly by Ricky. He really struggled reading and man, does he have a problem with plurals. Come on, Ricky, it was on paper for you, you've had months and months to practice.
|
| 14 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 15:46
|
Yeah, the plurals were not up to the standard of his playing career.
|
| 15 | astade
Sustainer
ID: 214361313
Mon, Jul 27, 2009, 23:49
|
I saw the posts above and decided to watch Rickey's induction speech. Wow! As noted above, with all the time to prepare I would have expected a better speech.... I guess that's 'Rickey being Rickey' ;)
|
| 16 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Sun, Aug 02, 2009, 00:49
|
Not all HOF's are the same
No, they are not. Some are 'first ballot Hall of Famers.' However, to me that means that the first time they were on the ballot, enough people felt they were Hall of Fame candidates as opposed to the people who had a lot of support but had people change their minds later to get them in (or had less people voting, so they had a higher % or whatever).
I was responding specifically to this: . I think Larkin should probably get in after maybe a handful seasons of eligibility.
That tells me that you feel he is hall of fame worthy, but you just don't want to vote for him. Which to me is not logical. If you feel he's HoF worthy, you vote for him. If enough people agree with you, he gets in on his first try and he is a first ballot HoF. If you don't feel he's HoF worthy,you don't vote for him. If enough people agree with you, he doesn't get in.
Then you have voters who will change their mind. Sometimes they feel a guy is HoF worthy one year and the next for whatever reason they decide he's not. When the reverse happens, guys who didn't get in their first year suddenly make it.
I still believe Blyleven and Dawson belong in. If I've a vote, they would have gotten it from me every year they were eligible. Do they deserve a first ballot induction? Who cares. They deserve an induction (imho). But not voting for them the first year goes against how I feel about them.
And the same applies to Barry Larkin. Either the original poster feels he belongs in the Hall in which case he should vote for him. Or the OP doesn't feel he belongs in the hall, in which he doesn't vote for him.
That, to me, is quite logical, actually.
|
| 17 | Mith
Dude
ID: 01629107
Sun, Aug 02, 2009, 10:07
|
However, to me that means that the first time they were on the ballot, enough people felt they were Hall of Fame candidates as opposed to the people who had a lot of support but had people change their minds later to get them in (or had less people voting, so they had a higher % or whatever).
I'd love to know where you heard this, because it simply isn't true. There were no baseball writers who believed that , Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Eddie Matthews, and Harmon Killebrew; the second, third, seventh and tenth players to hit 500 home runs, did not belong in the Hall of Fame until their second year of eligibility. This would also have to be true of Cy Young, Yogi Berra, Joe Dimaggio, Tris Speaker and Nap LaJoie, as all of them were also inducted in their second year of eligibility.
I've seen and heard plenty of baseball historians and writers explain the significance of first ballot induction. I've never heard a writer or historian explain how any of the above names were widely enough dismissed for a year to missout on being inducted. The same is true for the cherished unanimous vote. Through all of the greatness we have witnessed through well over a century of baseball, no player has had the honor of a unanimous induction, not Ruth, Mays, Williams, Gehrig, Aaron or anyone else.
|
| 19 | Mith
Dude
ID: 01629107
Sun, Aug 02, 2009, 10:19
|
I was responding specifically to this: . "I think Larkin should probably get in after maybe a handful seasons of eligibility."
That tells me that you feel he is hall of fame worthy, but you just don't want to vote for him.
With all due respect to your apparent belief that you can read my mind, all it should actually tell you is what I already explained:
He doesn't deserve first ballot consideration. If it helps, I can elaborate: because he is, in my opinion, a legitimate Hall of Famer but not of the caliber that deserves first ballot induction. It is specifically *not* that I don't want to vote for him. Please don't assert your mistaken assessments onto me.
|
| 20 | Seattle Zen
ID: 174929
Sun, Aug 02, 2009, 10:49
|
You may feel that way, Khahan, but I would venture a guess that less than five percent of the writer/voters feel the same.
|
| 21 | Perm Dude
ID: 154552311
Sun, Aug 02, 2009, 10:53
|
I dunno. Most writing I've come across has to do with the number of eligible players coming up for voting on the same ballot. Most voters seem unwilling to vote for more than a couple, even if they believe that 5 guys on the list are HoF-level players.
Maybe I'm just not reading the right guys, but I've never come across any HoF voter saying they won't vote for a player simply because they want to withhold the "first ballot in" accolade that the player would obtain.
|
| 22 | Mith
Dude
ID: 01629107
Sun, Aug 02, 2009, 12:27
|
It's definitely true that it's a practice that is falling out of fashion, unfortunately. But it's also a tradition that has been a prominant factor through the history of HoF voting. It's not rare to come across voters who acknowledge taking that approach.
Steve Gardner on Ozzie Smith in 2001:Looking at the new guys next year, there really isn't anyone who personifies the term "first-ballot Hall of Famer." Ozzie Smith was a defensive genius and quite probably the greatest fielding shortstop of all-time. However, his career batting average over 19 seasons was a mere .262. He should get in, but not on the first ballot. Likewise, Andre Dawson and Alan Trammell were outstanding players for a long time, but neither approaches the greatness of 2001 inductees Dave Winfield and Kirby Puckett, who were chosen in their first year of eligibility. Dave Sloan on Mark McGwire in 2005: Not on the first ballot but maybe "next year." I believe there is still something special about first-ballot Hall of Famers, and McGwire no longer belongs with the likes of Aaron, Robinson and Ryan.
|
| 23 | Khahan
ID: 486552412
Mon, Aug 03, 2009, 09:48
|
Mith, #19,
Don't take it personally. This is all obviously a matter of opinion. But to me, the HoF is something that is a black and white issue. Either a player is or a player isn't HoF worthy.
There shouldn't be any shades of grey. The closest shade of grey would be what we commonly refer to as those 'bubble' players. And to me, a guy on the bubble doesn't get my vote.
I may change my mind on some players. But when I do believe they belong, I would vote for them whether its their first time on the ballot (like Alomar this year) or nearing their last time on the ballot (like Blyleven).
|
| 24 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Dec 07, 2009, 11:45
|
Manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey were just voted in to the Hall of Fame class of 2010 by the Veterans Committee.
Marvin Miller fell short with 7 votes out of 16, he needed 9 votes.
story
|
| 26 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1410391215
Tue, Dec 08, 2009, 19:34
|
Marvin Miller's absence is ridiculous.
|
| 27 | Khahan
ID: 391582715
Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 13:22
|
I think I've changed my mind on Barry Larkin thanks to Jason Stark's article on Larkin's career.
Sure, his numbers do not stack up vs other HoF'ers. But Larkin is from an era where numbers on a SS were based on fielding and glovework more than his bat. But for him to have been the fielder he was plus be so much more dominant with a bat than any other SS is very telling. Yes, I underrated him. No, I don't anymore.
|
| 28 | blue hen @minnesota
ID: 4811542923
Wed, Dec 30, 2009, 00:54
|
Larkin was considered a "good hitting shortstop" in his time. And it's true. While he struggled to stay healthy, Larkin hit a ton. He had 6 seasons (albeit some shortened) with an OPS over .875. That's pretty awesome for a shortstop. He also won Clemente and Gehrig awards. All told, Larkin is pretty clearly a Hall of Famer.
|
| 29 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 1740422
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 14:17
|
Congrats to the Hawk...only 2010 inductee...
Blyleven and Alomar would seem like automatics next year with both getting 70+%.
I know a lot are anti-Dawson...but I think it is deserved...great all-around player and dominant at his peak.
|
| 30 | Electroman
ID: 565182111
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 14:25
|
When/Who decides what hat he wears?
|
| 31 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 14:44
|
The Hall decides.
|
| 32 | Razor
ID: 57854118
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 15:03
|
Silly induction. I'm not old timer, but it seems like the Hall's doors are getting easier to walk through.
|
| 33 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 15:07
|
Blyleven inches closer every year. Alomar had the highest every first year percentage who missed the cut. Both are likely to
The 2011 ballot includes these holdovers who had 5% or more:
Bert Blyleven 400 74.2%
Roberto Alomar 397 73.7%
Jack Morris 282 52.3%
Barry Larkin 278 51.6%
Lee Smith 255 47.3%
Edgar Martinez 195 36.2%
Tim Raines 164 30.4%
Mark McGwire 128 23.7%
Alan Trammell 121 22.4%
Fred McGriff 116 21.5%
Don Mattingly 87 16.1%
Dave Parker 82 15.2%
Dale Murphy 63 5.9%
Harold Baines 33 6.1%
Here are the first time candidates who will be on the 2011 ballot: Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Mike Hampton, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Troy Percival,
Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina, Larry Walker
|
| 34 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 1740422
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 15:10
|
Bagwell should be interesting...
Will Palmiero get 5%?
|
| 35 | Great One
ID: 5803069
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 15:25
|
If Ugueth Urbina gets on the ballot, I deserve to be!
|
| 36 | DWetzel at work
ID: 49962710
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 15:31
|
Gah every year I get more and more tilted by the voting. It's finally moved from anger and denial to acceptance, I think.
30% for Tim Raines? Geez, are people that dumb?
22% for Trammell? He's basically the proto-Barry Larkin in every way, and never even sniffs that level of love.
GAAAAAH.
|
| 37 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 721308
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 15:47
|
Very surprised Dawson got in over Alomar...
BATTING
Alomar: 2379 G, 1508 R, 1134 RBI, 474 SB, .300 AVG, .814 OPS
Dawson: 2627 G, 1373 R, 1591 RBI, 314 SB, .279 AVG, .806 OPS
Advantage Alomar. Dawson had more power, but Aloma's speed makes up for it, as shown by his higher OPS.
POSTSEASON
Alomar: 58 G, 33 RBI, 20 SB, .313 AVG, .829 OPS
Dawson: 15 G, 3 RBI, 2 SB, .186 AVG, .475 OPS
Advantage Alomar. Granted, Dawson didn't play in many postseasons, but Alomar definitely came through in HoFer fashion.
AWARDS
Alomar: 12 All-Star, 0 MVP, 5 MVP Top 10, 10 Gold Glove, 4 Silver Slugger
Dawson: 8 All-Star, 1 MVP, 4 MVP Top 10, 8 Gold Glove, 4 Silver Slugger
Advantage Alomar. There have only been a handful of 2B awarded the MVP since the BBWAA started awarding it, but there have been plenty of OF. Alomar having more Top 10s shows how much more he was respected as a player at a position that doesn't get much MVP attention.
It seems that the BBWAA has this thing for "just stick around long enough and we'll put you in eventually." It's pretty much the same story for all these players who have a poor vote their first ballot year and then eventually climb little by little and then suddenly gain a big chunk of the vote the year they're voted in. It's more about sentiment than anything else.
|
| 38 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 16:08
|
I think perhaps the voters have a higher standard for first time nominees. Voting rules, eligibility, and procedures have changed over the years, but I recall reading that historically NOT getting in on one's first year was actually the norm (anecdotally, Joe DiMaggio got in on try-3 for example).
|
| 39 | Building 7
ID: 471052128
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 17:11
|
Troy Percival pitched last year. The last three years. He did not pitch in 2006. I wonder why he is eligible.
This is Mcgwire's 2nd chance and he got only 23.7%? It doesn't look like he's going to make it.
|
| 40 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 18:29
|
This is what we were afraid of... big ballot next year: Alomar, Larkin, Blyleven, Raines, Bagwell, Palmeiro, McGwire for me.
Out but interesting: Lee Smith, Morris, Trammell, Parker, Murphy, Brown, Olerud, Larry Walker.
|
| 41 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 12353217
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 18:57
|
This is Mcgwire's 2nd chance and he got only 23.7%? It doesn't look like he's going to make it.
Done be so sure of that. Sutter made it after wallowing in and around the 20s for his first 6 years...
1994 BBWAA (23.9%)
1995 BBWAA (29.8%)
1996 BBWAA (29.1%)
1997 BBWAA (27.5%)
1998 BBWAA (31.1%)
1999 BBWAA (24.3%)
2000 BBWAA (38.5%)
2001 BBWAA (47.6%)
2002 BBWAA (50.4%)
2003 BBWAA (53.6%)
2004 BBWAA (59.5%)
2005 BBWAA (66.7%)
2006 BBWAA (76.9%)
|
| 42 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 19:29
|
From the Hall of Fame site:
2011 eligible players: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, B.J. Surhoff, Marquis Grissom, John Franco, Bret Boone, Al Leiter, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Raul Mondesi, Bobby Higginson, Wilson Alvarez, Rey Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Jose Offerman, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, Dan Wilson, Paul Quantrill, Cal Eldred, Kirk Rueter, Steve Reed
No Percival.
|
| 43 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 1550160
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 20:39
|
This was Mcgwires third try...23.8% 2008, 21.9% 2009...
Dawson over Alomar...has a lot to do with the respective time on the ballot. Alomar is probably first ballot if not for the spitting incident. I think he makes it with 80+% next vote.
Blyleven seems automatic next vote.
I think Raines will be a player that gains momentum as he spends time on the ballot. I could see him making it in years 12-15 as saber guys campaign for him.
|
| 44 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Wed, Jan 06, 2010, 23:27
|
Alomar is probably first ballot if not for the spitting incident.
My thoughts exactly.
|
| 45 | clv on laptop
ID: 2711532410
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 06:44
|
The Blyleven and Smith snubs become more comical every time I look at the numbers. Same day, different *hit, I guess.
Would love to hear from the 62 "geniuses" that suddenly decided Blyleven deserved a vote this year when he didn't the first 13 times he was on the ballot. Also could care less about hearing from any of the ones making the talk show circuit explaining why they didn't vote for Alomar now when they will next year. Will the spitting incident suddenly disappear in the next 365 days?
Hall voting is a bigger embarassment to the game than Rose, Alomar, or the steroids debacle ever were.
|
| 46 | KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 721308
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 09:59
|
Will the spitting incident suddenly disappear in the next 365 days?
Of course not, but at least the voters who held out can feel good about themselves for not letting him be a first-ballot HoFer.
Somehow, I think the first-ballot thing matters more to the voters than it does to the players. In the end, Alomar will still be in the HoF and nobody will care whether it was first or second ballot except those voters who held out this year. Hope it makes them happy.
|
| 47 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 10:50
|
Holding out on Alomar because of the spitting incident would (again) reveal the prima donna natures of some of these writers. This is a power thing, I think.
Alomar and John Hirschbeck later because friends after the incident, and worked hard behind the scenes to raise awareness and money for ALD research.
|
| 48 | RecycledSpinalFluid
Dude
ID: 204401122
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 14:12
|
BigMac Minoso?
So, if he were to really comeback and pinch hit...his 5 year wait starts again? Man, I could see Rickie Henderson wanting to come back just to get re-elected after 5 years...
|
| 49 | Razor
ID: 57854118
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 14:20
|
A 46-year old player who hit .187 in his last season 9 years ago. Ya, not even LaRussa is that gimicky.
|
| 50 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 14:33
|
Well wait a minute. He did have an .808 OPS that last season. And one home run every 10.3 AB, which is right in line with the mark of the career leader... Mark McGwire.
And how about the years before that? OPS from 2000 back: 1.229, 1.121, 1.222, 1.039, 1.197, 1.126, 0.887, 1.193, 0.970. I'm not saying McGwire will come back and be a superstar, but you have to imagine he'd be at least as productive as Nick Stavinoha or Joe Mather off the bench.
|
| 51 | Khahan
ID: 391582715
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 16:08
|
Gotta question if McGwire would have the bat speed these days to hit a 95+ MPH fastball.
|
| 52 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Thu, Jan 07, 2010, 16:27
|
I note that this news is coming after RJ's retirement announcement...
|
| 53 | Electroman
ID: 565182111
Wed, Jan 27, 2010, 08:23
|
Dawson going in as an Expo. I am thinking of making the trip this summer to the induction ceremony, and will wear my Expos gear. It has been a while.
|
| Rate this thread: | If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time. If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating. If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here. |
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message:
|
|