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0 Subject: Let's play pick the middle reliever 2010

Posted by: Seattle Zen
- Leader [055343019] Sat, Apr 03, 2010, 23:15

We are all bored to tears reading fantasy baseball features on the top 100 players or closer reports. Those of us who play in deep leagues understand the value of a top middle reliever. The best of them will have great ratios and K/IP. Of course, many of them will get moved into the closer roll. And if you are really lucky, they can get you quite a few wins. What's not to like about that?

Well, that's all true, but what I believe is overlooked is - it's the hardest position to predict. It's all well and good to say, "get a top notch middle reliever", but who will that be?

So I propose a contest. I don't know a metric that can measure the value of these two lines:

Player A: 66IP 2.00 ERA 1.16 WHIP
Player B: 76IP 2.12 ERA 1.13 WHIP

So, let's predict which middle reliever will end up with the most wins in 2010. Last year, Alfredo Aceves had 10 wins, though he did have one start. Let's give everyone a two start max.

Since wins have a lot of luck involved, the second prediction should be highest K/9 with a 40 IP minimum. Again, these have to be middle relievers, not closers

I'll go with George Sherrill for the most wins and Daniel Bard for the highest k/9. I'm doubtful that anyone will get either, to be perfectly honest. Who would have guessed Aceves last year or Jose Arredondo in 2008?
1Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Sat, Apr 03, 2010, 23:56
Good idea.

I'm going to go with Tony Sipp for the MR K/9 title.

And Joba Chamberlain for the Wins title.
2filthy
      ID: 591332022
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 01:21
Sign me up. No picks yet, but whats the chances of assigning points to wins, innings, runs, hits, walks, ks, holds, saves, smallworld style??
3Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 11:37
but whats the chances of assigning points to wins, innings, runs, hits, walks, ks, holds, saves, smallworld style??

Make a pitch, come up with a system, but drop the holds.
4slizz
      ID: 43133920
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 13:09
gotta agree with SZ on this one on Sherrill...Dodgers only had 1 complete game last year. Factor in Torre loves to go to the bullpen earlier than just about every manager makes that a pretty easy one.

To be different I'm going to go with Kevin Jepsen of Anaheim for most wins and Luke Gregerson of the Padres as the best K/9.

5filthy
      ID: 591332022
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 16:37
Simple is better, I like what's going on here.

I had just been thinking that Smallworld did a pretty good job of judging player values. Would grow tiresome to track though.

MY PICKS:
W- Rafael Betancourt
K/9- Neftali Feliz
6Building 7
      ID: 232122716
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 16:48
Wins - Pedro Feliciano
K/9 - Matt Thornton
7JeffG
      ID: 47112621
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 19:05
W - Ryan Madson
K/9 - David Robertson
8slizz-bberry
      ID: 57337418
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 19:37
Madson is the closer for the phils...no?
9Slizz
      ID: 5724878
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 20:12
wow...totally slept on Feliz. Great choice!
10JeffG
      ID: 47112621
      Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 23:29
Good point on Madson being the closer now. Sorry about being absent minded. Please ignore [7]

W - JP Howell
K/9 - David Robertson
11GoldCoach
      ID: 2421029
      Mon, Apr 05, 2010, 09:48
Interesting concept. Makes one take a fresh (maybe first)look at the position.

W Scott Downs
K/9 J Motte
12RJ
      ID: 44336611
      Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:36
Joba W
Matt Thornton K/9
13Great One
      ID: 592262415
      Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:41
Daniel Bard baby...
14Seattle Zen
      ID: 1410391215
      Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:43
For both categories, GO?

Not too late to sign up.
15blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:45
Mike Adams and Daniel Bard.
16Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 21:34
W - Aceves

K/9 - Joba

17Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Wed, Apr 07, 2010, 10:54
Nice work, Da Bomb, wait for a MR to get a win, then hop on his bandwagon! I'm certain that you just jinxed him and since he's a Yankee, we're all grateful!
18judy
      Leader
      ID: 7771722
      Wed, Apr 07, 2010, 13:53
W -- Thornton CHW

K -- Gregerson SD
19Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Wed, Apr 07, 2010, 14:23
Nope SZ, I wrote that message well before he picked up the win. I just figured if he did it last year, why not this year?
20Great One
      ID: 592262415
      Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 09:10
Sure, put me down for Bard for both.
21barilko6
      ID: 4134389
      Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 10:43
I am going to make my selections in September.
22Seattle Zen
      ID: 1410391215
      Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 14:09
I am going to make my selections in September.

You'll still manage to screw it up.
23barilko6
      ID: 4134389
      Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 17:30
Totally true, but at least I am giving myself a greater percentage to minimize my screw-ups by waiting until September.

24Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Wed, Apr 14, 2010, 01:51
There is a 2 start max on starts, but how about for saves? (in regards to Neftali Feliz).
25Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Wed, Apr 14, 2010, 10:34
but how about for saves?

Nah. The limit on starts makes sense, starters are more likely to get a win. If a MR moves to closer, that really doesn't change anything for k/9. Actually makes it harder to come up with wins.
26Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Thu, May 13, 2010, 11:00
I think Tyler Clippard is running away with the wins category, he's been ridiculous! I'm glad to say that I have had him all year in a NL-Only 4X4 league for a buck! He's been more valuable in that format than Tim Lincecum.
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