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Subject: Let's play pick the middle reliever 2010
Posted by: Seattle Zen
- Leader [055343019] Sat, Apr 03, 2010, 23:15
We are all bored to tears reading fantasy baseball features on the top 100 players or closer reports. Those of us who play in deep leagues understand the value of a top middle reliever. The best of them will have great ratios and K/IP. Of course, many of them will get moved into the closer roll. And if you are really lucky, they can get you quite a few wins. What's not to like about that?
Well, that's all true, but what I believe is overlooked is - it's the hardest position to predict. It's all well and good to say, "get a top notch middle reliever", but who will that be?
So I propose a contest. I don't know a metric that can measure the value of these two lines:
Player A: 66IP 2.00 ERA 1.16 WHIP Player B: 76IP 2.12 ERA 1.13 WHIP
So, let's predict which middle reliever will end up with the most wins in 2010. Last year, Alfredo Aceves had 10 wins, though he did have one start. Let's give everyone a two start max.
Since wins have a lot of luck involved, the second prediction should be highest K/9 with a 40 IP minimum. Again, these have to be middle relievers, not closers
I'll go with George Sherrill for the most wins and Daniel Bard for the highest k/9. I'm doubtful that anyone will get either, to be perfectly honest. Who would have guessed Aceves last year or Jose Arredondo in 2008? |
1 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522 Sat, Apr 03, 2010, 23:56
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Good idea.
I'm going to go with Tony Sipp for the MR K/9 title.
And Joba Chamberlain for the Wins title.
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2 | filthy
ID: 591332022 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 01:21
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Sign me up. No picks yet, but whats the chances of assigning points to wins, innings, runs, hits, walks, ks, holds, saves, smallworld style??
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3 | Seattle Zen Leader
ID: 055343019 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 11:37
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but whats the chances of assigning points to wins, innings, runs, hits, walks, ks, holds, saves, smallworld style??
Make a pitch, come up with a system, but drop the holds.
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4 | slizz
ID: 43133920 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 13:09
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gotta agree with SZ on this one on Sherrill...Dodgers only had 1 complete game last year. Factor in Torre loves to go to the bullpen earlier than just about every manager makes that a pretty easy one. To be different I'm going to go with Kevin Jepsen of Anaheim for most wins and Luke Gregerson of the Padres as the best K/9.
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5 | filthy
ID: 591332022 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 16:37
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Simple is better, I like what's going on here.
I had just been thinking that Smallworld did a pretty good job of judging player values. Would grow tiresome to track though.
MY PICKS: W- Rafael Betancourt K/9- Neftali Feliz
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6 | Building 7
ID: 232122716 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 16:48
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Wins - Pedro Feliciano K/9 - Matt Thornton
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7 | JeffG
ID: 47112621 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 19:05
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W - Ryan Madson K/9 - David Robertson
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8 | slizz-bberry
ID: 57337418 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 19:37
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Madson is the closer for the phils...no?
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9 | Slizz
ID: 5724878 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 20:12
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wow...totally slept on Feliz. Great choice!
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10 | JeffG
ID: 47112621 Sun, Apr 04, 2010, 23:29
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Good point on Madson being the closer now. Sorry about being absent minded. Please ignore [7]
W - JP Howell K/9 - David Robertson
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11 | GoldCoach
ID: 2421029 Mon, Apr 05, 2010, 09:48
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Interesting concept. Makes one take a fresh (maybe first)look at the position.
W Scott Downs K/9 J Motte
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12 | RJ
ID: 44336611 Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:36
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Joba W Matt Thornton K/9
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13 | Great One
ID: 592262415 Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:41
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Daniel Bard baby...
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14 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1410391215 Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:43
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For both categories, GO?
Not too late to sign up.
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15 | blue hen Dude
ID: 710321114 Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 12:45
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Mike Adams and Daniel Bard.
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16 | Da Bomb Donor
ID: 487112814 Tue, Apr 06, 2010, 21:34
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W - Aceves K/9 - Joba
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17 | Seattle Zen Leader
ID: 055343019 Wed, Apr 07, 2010, 10:54
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Nice work, Da Bomb, wait for a MR to get a win, then hop on his bandwagon! I'm certain that you just jinxed him and since he's a Yankee, we're all grateful!
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18 | judy Leader
ID: 7771722 Wed, Apr 07, 2010, 13:53
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W -- Thornton CHW
K -- Gregerson SD
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19 | Da Bomb Donor
ID: 487112814 Wed, Apr 07, 2010, 14:23
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Nope SZ, I wrote that message well before he picked up the win. I just figured if he did it last year, why not this year?
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20 | Great One
ID: 592262415 Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 09:10
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Sure, put me down for Bard for both.
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21 | barilko6
ID: 4134389 Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 10:43
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I am going to make my selections in September.
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22 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1410391215 Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 14:09
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I am going to make my selections in September.
You'll still manage to screw it up.
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23 | barilko6
ID: 4134389 Thu, Apr 08, 2010, 17:30
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Totally true, but at least I am giving myself a greater percentage to minimize my screw-ups by waiting until September.
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24 | Da Bomb Donor
ID: 487112814 Wed, Apr 14, 2010, 01:51
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There is a 2 start max on starts, but how about for saves? (in regards to Neftali Feliz).
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25 | Seattle Zen Leader
ID: 055343019 Wed, Apr 14, 2010, 10:34
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but how about for saves?
Nah. The limit on starts makes sense, starters are more likely to get a win. If a MR moves to closer, that really doesn't change anything for k/9. Actually makes it harder to come up with wins.
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26 | Seattle Zen Leader
ID: 055343019 Thu, May 13, 2010, 11:00
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I think Tyler Clippard is running away with the wins category, he's been ridiculous! I'm glad to say that I have had him all year in a NL-Only 4X4 league for a buck! He's been more valuable in that format than Tim Lincecum.
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