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Subject: SP vs. RP
Posted by: Great One
- [47515621] Tue, Jun 29, 2010, 21:01
Dirty Dozen is debating the value of closers on ERA/WHIP, how valuable they are and if they are good keepers. Please give your thoughts on this interesting subject. My contention is that the small amount of innings pitched by a closer limits their positive impact.This was my basic theory. Good Starting Pitcher X = 3.50 ERA for 200 IP
Average Closer Pitcher Y = 3.00 ERA for 50 IP
your 250 IP gets you a 3.40 ERA
Average Starter Pitcher X = 4.00 ERA for 200 IP
Great Closer Pitcher y = 2.50 ERA for 50 IP
your 250 IP gets you a 3.70 ERA It is the contention of others that an ERA of say 2.50 and WHIP of 1.00 by a top closer is more valuable then say a starter who throws 200 IP of 3.50 with a 1.25. Others feel that those numbers are such a small part of the 1400 IP you throw they will hardly make a dent. And if you are picking i.e. Broxton with an early pick to get those numbers you are also sacrificing getting a quality 200 IP from a top tier SP. What do you think is the best path to achieving high scores in ERA/WHIP? |
| 1 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 10:34
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Someone should copy and paste bits of the Dirty Dozen thread.
Other things to consider are trade value and average draft pick. Mediocre closers are usually gone by round 8 or 9 in RIBC; starters of the same quality tend to go later.
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| 2 | Great One
ID: 505322312
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 10:49
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Here is a scenario we can start. BH's team is struggling in ERA/WHIP right now. What is the best way to correct this from here on out? Should he trade for i.e. Mariano with his 1.00 and 1.00 or i.e. CC with is 3.50 and 1.20? Mariano has better stats... but will only throw 35-40 more innings. CC's stats not quite as good (since he is a starter of course), but will throw 100 more innings.
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| 3 | Great One
ID: 505322312
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 10:54
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Thats a bit extreme for Mariano who won't finish the season with those stats... so lets go 3-year averages from here on out for anyone trying to do math. 100 IP of CC at 3.10 and 1.13
40 IP of Mariano at 2.07 and 0.89
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| 4 | holt
ID: 315293011
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 12:36
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You gotta determine the stats of the players that C.C. and Rivera are replacing. For example, what if Rivera is replacing Gregg, and C.C. is replacing Piniero, or whoever.
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| 5 | Great One
ID: 505322312
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 12:38
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Blue Hen should make the trade for real and we'll track it! :)
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| 6 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 13:05
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Hen has a death grip on all his closers, sadly. At the expense of his hitting stats as well as pitching counting stats.
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| 7 | Great One
ID: 505322312
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 13:15
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and pitching ratio's... he's focused on his G20 domination, hard to blame him! :)
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| 8 | Great One
ID: 505322312
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 13:22
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and this to me is my best example of how little of an impact these closers are having on your overall numbers.... now I know BH's only good starters are Cain and Hamels. But those two paired with some great closers should yield some great results, right? from DD discussion
Blue Hen has Broxton (1.87 and 1.10) + Valverde (0.53 and 0.68) + Nunez (2.27 and 0.98). So why is he DEAD LAST in WHIP and only 5 points in ERA? Because they have combined for 100 good innings. And his starters have (save for Matt Cain) pitched 400 below average innings.
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| 9 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 13:41
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First of all, the hitting stats are NOT struggling. 11-10-6-11-6.5. Considering that Da Bomb is 12-12-12-12-12, that's a championship-worthy offense. It's the 1-12-1-5-1 in pitching that sucks. I'm way down in innings, so I am reasonably confident I can make up some points in wins and k's from waivers, and it's not like it'll hurt my rate stats.
Also, I did have three pretty major busts at SP: Porcello, Harden, and Joba (still a starter when we drafted). While those guys haven't been good, they've also been hurt and otherwise limited in their innings, which is why I'm way down.
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| 10 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 14:50
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I made the same mistake with Porcello in the Political forum league, so I feel your pain. However, if you think you can make up Wins with FA pickups you're probably going to be surprised. Sure, Moyer and others will get you some W's, but at a lower per-inning rate than most anyone who is already on a squad and at the expense of ERA (your WHIP can't be hurt any more but it'll harder to move up).
I think you are at the point (such as now, when you are more than 10% in front) that you have excess capacity in saves to help yourself in other areas. You can't get any more points in saves, in other words, and what if you made moves that end up costing you some saves but get you points elsewhere?
When we get down to less than half a season it'll be that much harder to help yourself catch up. And you don't have a lot of extra innings to make up. At your current pace, you'll still be hitting about 95-96% of your IP limit, which means maybe 10 good starts. Or 20 bad ones.
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| 11 | filthy
ID: 591332022
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 21:23
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In a vacuum, the weight of the starters' innings make them much more valuable than closers. But there are many variables to consider that could sway the argument depending on the team, player, or league.
With so many more starters, it is much easier in most leagues to find a top starter after the draft than it is to find a top closer after the draft.
Also, when you happen to draft a dud, the extra weight from the starters innings become much harder to recover from than a closer.
There are a handful of starters that are more valuable than Eckersley in his prime, but beyond that, I'd much rather get one of the few ACE closers, than take a gamble on a starter with upside.
Oustide of the few ACE closers, any closer with any question mark would not be keepable though. There are so many Ubaldo/Price/Hughes type of starters that emerge each year, that it isn't worth keeping a closer that isn't elite over a starter with upside.
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| 12 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Wed, Jun 30, 2010, 23:14
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Closers are probably more effective because they pitch for an inning or two and are fresh. Saves are also the hardest stat to come by
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| 13 | Great One
ID: 3265018
Thu, Jul 01, 2010, 09:51
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I find them to be the easiest stat to find, I always add closers for free and usually don't even draft a closer. in G20 its a bit tougher, but in a normal 12 team league someone always comes along for free.
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| 14 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Jul 01, 2010, 10:53
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For the record, I am definitely looking to deal a closer. Probably not Broxton but Valverde or Nunez could easily go or Lindstrom. But the offers I've gotten are for mediocre pitchers on hot streaks, or worse. And I'm not interested in that.
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| 15 | holt
ID: 4762112
Thu, Jul 01, 2010, 13:03
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Same here, I'd love to deal some of my closers but I won't give them away for waiver wire fodder. Not expecting anything great but i at least want a player that I would use in some capacity. I don't think I've even received any offers.
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| 16 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Thu, Jul 01, 2010, 13:04
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Easy question to answer, I posed this in the DD discussion but will bring it here:
If you want to figure out if a value of a closer on ERA/Whip do a little self test
Look at it this way to figure out if a closer has more or less of an impact than a starter:
Take a team with an era of 4.00. They want to lower it and can choose between a SP who is projected to have an ERA of 3.00 or a RP who is projected to have a an ERA of 3.00
Wins, k's and Saves are not a consideration.
You have 1 slot you can fill. Who do you take?
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| 17 | RJ
ID: 356371114
Sun, Jul 11, 2010, 15:37
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The starter, he will pitch more innings and lower the 4.00 ERA at a much faster rate than the reliever.
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| 18 | blue hen
ID: 266191021
Sun, Jul 18, 2010, 22:17
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I want to go back to something. A lot of people say closers are less consistent than starters. But I think closers are generally more consistent. Sure, there is always a Brad Lidge to be had, but guys like Jose Valverde, Joakim Soria, and even Francisco Rodriguez seem much easier to predict than Scott Baker, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, and Kevin Millwood.
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| 19 | Khahan
ID: 13126822
Mon, Jul 19, 2010, 08:35
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Thru the course of a season yes I think closers are more consistent. Its just when you have a guy like Lidge or Gagne the switch is SO extreme that it really stands out in your mind. Then you have the perception of a guy like Eddie Guardado who was a closer and was still a good closer but went to a team that didn't need him as a closer.
Those 2 things I think add to the perception that BH is talking about. But when it comes to the era/whip/k's stats I'd agree that closers are generally easier to predict.
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| 20 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 14:01
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I posted in the other thread per ESPN keeper rankings. And you can cross Hoffman and Nathan off the short list they managed to make with 3 straight 30 save seasons. Closers in general: You'll notice that most every closer ranks a good 20 spots or lower than in a traditional redraft league, not that you should be surprised; "never pay for saves" is a phrase we repeat quite often on these pages. That goes double in keeper leagues because if there's any aspect in which saves are even more unpredictable, it's forecasting consistency in the category over several seasons. To that point, if we establish 40 as a good benchmark in the category, only two closers (Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde) have reached that plateau in two of the past three seasons. Two. No one has done it all three years. Even if we adjust that benchmark down to 30, only six relievers (Francisco Cordero, Trevor Hoffman, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Rodriguez) have done it in each of the past three seasons. That's a startling amount of inconsistency. You'll note, too, that both Hoffman and Rivera are beyond their 40th birthdays, so they're not even guaranteed to play each of the next three seasons.
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| 21 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 14:53
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GO, I'm not so sure that really applies. We're talking about consistency as far as 'controllable stats' go, ie whip/era/k's. I'll put money on a closer repeating a sub 2.00 ERA before I'll put money on a starter repeating a sub 3.00 ERA.
I'd also like to point out that my perception of the 'value' of closers is more directed towards the draft and naming keepers (specifically because that is where this discussion spawned from).
Once we're in season and we have other data such as remaining IP (or the amount we're projected to exceed by) I do take a slightly different approach to closers and their value. I think their value goes up a bit. but in draft or naming keepers....like espn said, "don't pay for saves."
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| 22 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 15:26
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I'm going through 3 year histories of closers and other than Rivera and Soria nobody really has consistently dominant ERA -- say under a very good 2.50 3 straight years. We'll go up that half run to a very good 3.50 for three straight years for starters. I've found CC, Lester, Halladay, Linceum, Felix, Grienke, Cliff Lee, Johan and Cain so far. Figured at least 150 IP per year to qualify. Now certainly there are more starters to go around so there is a bigger pool. But they're is some consistency to be found there too. I'm curious, are closers or starters more likely to be hurt? this is something to consider too when considering a keeper. I'm unsure. And again you'd have to adjust for the pool of say 4 starters for every 1 closer.
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| 23 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 15:35
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Jose Valverde is pretty consistent, but he has a 3.38 season (with 44 saves) in there. I'd much rather bank on him than, say, Brandon Webb. Remember when Webb was automatic? That was recent.
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| 24 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 15:37
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Maybe for this kind of exercise we should expand it to look at SP vs RP (not just closers). There are a lot of top notch middle men that people draft or pick up along the way that we are ignoring. Especially since the stats we are considering (Whip, ERA, K's) are doable by all pitchers (where as wins and Saves are not).
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| 25 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 15:45
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I've always found that its impossible to predict reliable middle relievers. One year I tried that, drafting the Scott Shields and Zumaya's of the world and they all blew up... and all new middle relief guys came along and dominated who went undrafted. Yes BH - Webb had 6 straight seasons under 3.60. Then he blew his arm. So obviously you wouldn't want him. But you are picking a top 5 closer, one who made that exclusive list of 2 guys with 40+ saves in 3 seasons (not even 3 straight)... vs. a guy who blew his arm out a year ago.
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| 26 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 15:51
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Great Middle ESPN Insider article Where are last years top ERA setup guys now? Mike Adams, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero etc and the highest paid guys? who had a few good seasons and got paid for it? The Proof Everyone in baseball knows what a great slugger looks like. And everyone knows what a great starting pitcher looks like. But apparently, nobody knows what a great middle reliever looks like. Why? Because middle relievers are like the weather. They might look great today. They might look great tomorrow. But that never, ever means they'll still be looking great the next day. Or week. Or month. Or year. And, of course, vice versa. Example No. 1: Consider this list of names -- Miguel Batista … Danys Baez … Octavio Dotel … J.J. Putz … Scot Shields … Justin Speier … Scott Linebrink … J.C. Romero … Brandon Lyon … Kyle Farnsworth … and David Riske. OK, so what do those 11 men have in common? Correct answer: They were the 11 highest-paid set-up relievers in baseball in 2009 -- i.e., the only 11 set-up men with salaries of $4.25 million or higher. So of those 11, how many would you guess (A) had an ERA under 4.00 and (B) stayed off the disabled list all season? Correct answer: exactly two of them -- Dotel and Lyon. So if their teams had it to do over again, think they'd pay that group more than $60 million again? Eh, probably not.
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| 27 | dpr
ID: 552411820
Tue, Jul 20, 2010, 19:28
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MRs are kinda silly because they in general are the guys not talented enough to be starters or closers. SO maybe they get lucky for a stretch and then are supposed to be the good guys but then the luck levels out.
Also the salary list isnt the fairest because MR isnt really a comparison, because the guys who are doing better than they are supposed are promoted to closer or maybe starter.
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| 28 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Tue, Jul 27, 2010, 14:00
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H2H keeper league - I think a good quality RP is more valuable than a SP. A common h2h strat is to stockpile MR/closers and win the era/whip/saves for a 3-2 pitching victory.
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| 29 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 27, 2010, 14:15
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What stinks about closers in H2H is they sometimes don't do anything for the week. They aren't guaranteed to go out there. And if one of them gets blown up, its tough to overcome that in ERA/WHIP with only a few innings left over the course of the week.
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| 30 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 27, 2010, 14:16
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A focus in one of our leagues has been to punt saves, and get SP/RP eligible guys and maximize IP for K/W's.
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| 31 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Tue, Jul 27, 2010, 14:43
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but thats the beauty of it GO. In a h2h league you stack 7 closers and maybe 1 or 2 SP. I've used the strategy before and have had pretty good success with it.
With that many, over the course of a week, their IP do add up. As opposed to 1 particular's 80IP vs a pool of 1400.
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| 32 | Great One
ID: 38649207
Tue, Jul 27, 2010, 14:50
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I definitely could see it work. Slizz tried some unconventional stuff last year in our work league. Completely punted power and went for all pitching + speed/avg. hitters.
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