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Subject: The Jose Bautista Dilemma for keeper leaguers
Posted by: Tree
- [248472317] Sat, Sep 25, 2010, 17:20
he'll be 30 long before next season starts.
prior to this season, he'd never hit more than 16 homers.
prior to this season, he'd never slugged more than .420.
prior to this season, he'd never had an ops above .757.
with a week to go in this season, he's already based 52 homers, has a slugging pct of .635, and an ops of 1.021. he might very well DOUBLE his career best in ribbies, and has more runs this season than the last two combined.
he's certainly an MVP candidate.
but is he a keeper? |
| 1 | Khahan
ID: 13126822
Sun, Sep 26, 2010, 00:34
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I think he's great trade bait to pawn off onto somebody else's keeper list. If the trade is balanced and good, you get something in return so you don't really lose.
When he reverts to 20 hrs and you got an upgraded draft pick, a different keeper or a cheese sandwhich....you came out ahead.
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| 2 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Sun, Sep 26, 2010, 09:19
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Until they catch him actually taking the drugs, I'd say you keep him.
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| 3 | Building 7
Leader
ID: 171572711
Sun, Sep 26, 2010, 09:29
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Reminds me of the movie "Damn Yankees".
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| 4 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Sun, Sep 26, 2010, 20:10
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I'd probably do some research into why he is hitting so much better. Is it roids, hgh, or does he have a new and completely different approach to hitting? I'd probably lean toward trading him or keeping him, even though it's pretty doubtful that he repeats these numbers again.
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| 5 | Seattle Zen in Forks
ID: 458542714
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 16:06
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When Scaggy and Scoobie hold him down and Wilma pulls off his mask, I promise you'll see Brady Anderson and his famous sideburns!!!
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| 6 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 16:46
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And he would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling kids and that damn dog.
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| 7 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 18:47
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every home run since number 30 he's probably thinking to himself "I'm so busted".
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| 8 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 18:49
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haha - I just typed Jose Bau into google and "Jose Bautista steroids" popped up as a common search term.
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| 9 | slizz
ID: 568531223
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 19:52
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lol @ holt.
I'd try and trade him to another owner.
Guys that come to mind who had that breakout year (HR Wise) all fizzled out the following season(s):
Most notable - Carlos Pena 2007, Carlos Quentin 2008, Aaron Hill & Adam Lind 2009.
Obviously, I expect my theory to be picked apart by a sabermetric analyst (i.e. Blue Hen) but I'm just going by pure stat-lines and what I can gather by watching the game.
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| 10 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 20:08
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Pena is all right--so's Quentin. Both are free swingers with lots of K's. But (as Zen points out) Brady Anderson is the classic--50 dingers one year, but never had more than 24 before or since.
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| 11 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 20:22
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The positive about Bautista is that if he is taking something and getting away with it under the current regulations, there is a good chance he will continue to do so in the future.
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| 12 | Electroman
ID: 10833614
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 20:26
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I think I heard that he hit all his home runs to left field. Thought that was interesting.
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| 13 | dpr
ID: 552411820
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 20:39
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I think it is pretty clear that Bautista is having a career year that he is unlikely to replicate. The question then becomes has he turned into a player who is a 40 hr threat? 40 HRs would currently be 2nd in the majors.
Looking at his stats:
Prior to this year he had just less than 20/Hr per 162 games.
He lowered his K-rate from 25% to 20% greatly increasing his balls in play.
He raised his fly ball rate from 43% to 55% increasing his chances of balls leaving the park.
*I believe that these to skills are more a result of a change of approach than a random discrepancy.*
His Fly/HR rate improved from 13 to 22. While 22% is not abnormally high increases of this magnitude are likely more a result of chance than increased skill.
So it seems some of his increased HR total is backed up by a real advancement in skill while much of it is also a result of luck.
To assume that he maintains his k-rate and fly ball percentage, gives us out of 100 ABs 80 in play 44 of which are fly balls. Out of 44 fly balls upping his career HR/fly ball % to 15% but still factoring in regression he hits 6.6 HRs. At 555 HRs like he has this year that is 37 HRs.
I made tons of assumptions but as I understand the stats that is a bit of how it works out. If anyone understands it better feel free to correct me.
That said, I would prefer to have someone else take the risk instead of me.
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| 14 | dpr
ID: 552411820
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 20:45
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Btw, Bautista currently has the 3rd highest fly ball percentage in the majors (to reynolds and ARAM). This gives him tons of chances to hit HRs.
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| 15 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Mon, Sep 27, 2010, 21:09
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He's a bit of a pull hitter all right.
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| 16 | filthy
ID: 568191312
Tue, Sep 28, 2010, 13:09
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Bautista was at about 20 homers a year pace while in Pittsburgh. That is without being able to hit righthanders that well. That is actually what led to his ticket out of Pittsburgh. They preferred Andy Laroche!
Mentioning steroids or HGH is pretty lame, since even if Bautista is using, it wouldn't be like he would be the only guy with access. Pretty negligible either way.
Bautista seems to have figured out right handed pitching this year. Number 50 was off Felix! The book is to bust him inside, but when a guy pulls that many homers, when do teams refuse to pitch him inside? When a guy keeps going deep after getting buzzed or beaned, when do teams smarten up? Bautista has clearly smartened up and is zoning on his pitches this year. Check the increased walk rate, he is going up there with a plan this year.
Is Bautista a keeper? Definitely. Will you ever find anyone to give you 50+ homer value for him in a trade? Not unless there's a BlueJay fan in your league. There probably aren't gonna be any better 3rd basemen drafted in a keeper league if Bautista isn't kept. Find a team that needs a 3rd baseman. If your team has no other 3rd baseman, then keep Bautista. The power is legit. Does the league value walks? Will it even matter? Teams are still pitching to him this year. Healthy Bautista easily tops 30 homers next year.
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| 17 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Tue, Sep 28, 2010, 14:57
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Healthy Bautista easily tops 30 homers next year
I'll take that. Not more than 25.
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| 18 | R9
ID: 2854239
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 05:59
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I'd take Filthy's side on that bet. Since last year's 2nd half he's had a different approach at the plate that has worked wonders. Hitting for power all year is not just some insane luck streak, there is some skill in there.
The real question will be how he adjusts to the adjustments pitchers make this off-season as teams do their off-season scouting. He's going to have Pujols-like attention paid to him going into next year. If the guy has hit all his HR's to left, I'd start pitching him the other way... ;) How's that going to affect his HR rate?
My guess is he keeps the OBP, increases his doubles and loses some HR's.
There is no way anyone will pay 50 HR value for him. You don't even get full value from guys who are legit 40+ HR threats year-to-year, so no way you get fair value in a trade. So in a keeper league it comes down to who would you keep over him, and I'm betting a 30+ HR 3B is the better keeper.
The real question is where do you put him on your 1-year league draft lists. With a ton of managers likely to steer clear, he could slip to a ridiculous round. At what point does he fall too far?
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| 19 | barilko6
ID: 195018
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 09:50
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Khahan...
I will take your bet that he hits more than 25. But there has to be an injury caveat in place.
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| 20 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 10:20
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Three things on Bautista vs. Anderson.
- Bautista did it in the year of the pitcher. Anderson did it at the height of hitting.
- Anderson had many, many years as a regular without power. Bautista had never gotten consistent enough playing time until this year.
- Bautista has a history of patience that Anderson did not. Bautista reached this level by waiting for his pitches. If they start being careful with him next year, that probably plays in his favor, especially in an OBP league.
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| 21 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Fri, Oct 01, 2010, 13:35
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So we have a deadzone of 26-29HR as a push.
25 or under is me.
30+ is filthy r9 and barilko
Even the few prior years where Bautista had more abs than his first few, he wasn't this big of a power threat and 25 HR would be a pleasant surprise.
2006 - 400AB 16 HR
2007 - 523AB 15 HR
2008 - 370AB 15 HR
2009 - 336AB 13 HR
ttls - 1629AB 59 HR or 1 HR every 27.61AB
2010 - 557AB 54 HR or 1 HR every 10.31 AB
grand totals 2186AB 113 HR
He's had 25.48% of his AB ins 2010 but 47.78% of his HR in 2010. And lets not forget, he had pretty consistent totals heading into 2010. Its not like he was on a steady rise in power that peaked in 201. This is an anomolous spike.
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| 22 | PuNk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Sat, Oct 02, 2010, 01:05
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Luis Gonzalez 2.0
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| 23 | blue hen
ID: 266191021
Sun, Oct 03, 2010, 22:41
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Luis Gonzalez was keeper worthy in some leagues for several years afterwards.
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| 24 | Nerfherders
ID: 347242717
Thu, Oct 07, 2010, 11:01
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I don't see Bautista ever approaching even 40 HR again. I just have a feeling, if he's that pull-happy, pitchers are going to learn to just keep feeding him breaking stuff off the plate that he can't pull.
Baseball is all about adjustments and counter-adjustments. I think it'll be the pitchers next year.
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| 25 | filthy
ID: 568191312
Fri, Jan 07, 2011, 05:31
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1 HR/18 at bats is my rate for Bautista in 2011. 30 HR if he gets to 540 AB. I'll do a wager to guru or a friendly wager on this one. Who's in?
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| 26 | Graydog
ID: 260361718
Mon, Jan 17, 2011, 19:36
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Im with Filthy, i think Jose will land around 35 bombs this year
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| 27 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Mon, Apr 25, 2011, 22:00
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Well, I think Jose has cleared up the question. At least, so far.
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| 28 | filthy
Sustainer
ID: 568191312
Tue, Apr 26, 2011, 13:23
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I may have underestimated.
Eight more bombs to left so far. 1 HR every 8.25 AB!! The two off Price were good pitches too.
Bautista better start liking the solo HR's until a threat develops behind him though. No pitch will be near the plate with runners on in the near future.
Not that Bautista has runners on very often anyways. Despite the small sample size, the numbers with men on base worry me. Can't start pressing for RBI this early.
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| 29 | barilko6
ID: 23482612
Tue, Apr 26, 2011, 13:48
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Too bad Khahan didn't take my bet offer...
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| 30 | Bh
ID: 426111516
Sun, May 15, 2011, 20:54
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I guess it was a good decision to keep him.
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| 31 | filthy
ID: 47421515
Mon, May 16, 2011, 11:11
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If Bautista could keep up his current SLG%, it would rank as the top SLG% ever.
Bautista hit 2 of his first 17 career dingers to the opposite field. Then he pulled his next 95 homers! Then he met Target field. Last homer of 2010 was an opposite field shot at Target. Pulled 11 more homers to start 2011, then back to Target for 2 more opposite field shots (and pulled another 3 while he was at it.) 7 homers in 7 games overall for Bautista at the new pitcher's park in Minnesota.
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| 32 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Mon, May 16, 2011, 11:28
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As a betting man, I'd still go back to the info in post 21 and bet against a repeat going into this year.
However, at this point its pretty safe to say that he seems to have fundamentally changed his approach. Yes, I know coaches and analysts have been saying that since last year. However, I filed that in the, "he changed his diet and worked out harder in the offseason," logic.
For those that got him last year and kept him or drafted him early this year, 'congratulations. You were right.'
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